Oil & Oilseeds Insight
Commodity Research Desk
May 17, 2016
SOYBEAN
TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATION
Commodity
Contract
S2
S1
CLOSE
R1
R2
Recommendations
Soybean CBOT
Jul-16
1052
1058
1065
1070
1076
Buy at 1063 TP 1070 SL 1060
Soybean NCDEX
Jun-16
3980
3997
4015
4032
4048
Buy at 4005-4000 TP 4070 SL 3970
SOYBEAN PERFORMANCE
Exchange
Soybean ( NCDEX)
Soybean ( NCDEX)
Contract
Jun-16
Jul-16
Open
4005
4067
High
4037
4095
Low
3989
4046
Last
4015
4073
Change(%)
0.70%
0.67%
Vol
40920
6820
Change%
-29.09%
-47.25%
OI
99020
31380
Change(%)
-0.32%
-0.44%
*Note- Rs/quintal
Exchange
Soybean (CBOT)
Soybean (CBOT)
Contract
Jul-16
Aug-16
Open
1063
1065
High
1071.75
1073.5
Low
1055
1057.75
Last Change(%)
1064.5
-0.05% Basis
1066.75
-0.02%
*Note-Cent/bushel
100
Review:









150
50
0
In NCDEX, Soybean June’16 futures yesterday opened
-50
-100
positively and traded higher throughout the trading session.
-150
The prices closed positively on tepid demand from oil millers
-200
at prevailing prices in the domestic markets.
-250
In Indore, around 2300-2600 bags were reported with spot
-300
29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May 9-May 10-May 11-May 12-May 13-May 16-May
prices hovering in the range of Rs 3950-4040/quintal.
According to Solvent Extractors’ Association of India,
Indore
Kota
Nagpur
soymeal exports in April’16 were 1,442 MT down by 92% on
y/y.
In CBOT, Soybean future yesterday extended its slump for
the fourth day on weaker export demand scenario.
As per USDA’s May WASDE report, soybean production in
Spread Matrix
US for 2016-17 is estimated to decline by 3.3% to 103.4
Spot
Jun-16
Jul-16 Oct-16
million MT from 106.9 million in 2015-16.
Spot
0
According to USDA, weekly crop progress report till May
Jun-16
-72
0
th
15 , 2016 around 36% of soybean crop has been planted in
Jul-16
-14
58
0
US against 41% last year during the same period. However,
Oct-16
-369
-297
-355
0
it is higher than prior 5 year average of 32%.
As per Buenos Grains exchange around 51% of soybean
harvesting is completed in Argentina.
In CBOT, Soybean July’16 future contract is trading at now
Derivative Analysis
1065.75 cents/bushel up by 0.12%.
4100
Outlook:
120000
4080
100000
4060
For today, the prices may trade on a positive note as steady
demand from crushing units at lower levels may support prices.
It may also take cues from overseas soybean prices and trade
higher during
day.
In CBOT soybean
future prices may trade
Oil the
and
Oilseeds
Insight
on a positive note as slower planting progress due to uncertain
weather conditions in major growing regions of mid west and
Mississippi delta in US is likely to push prices higher. However,
any major gain in prices is unlikely as export demand during the
week may remain subdued.
4040
80000
4020
60000
4000
3980
40000
3960
20000
3940
3920
0
3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May 9-May 10-May 11-May 12-May 13-May 16-May
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Open Interest
Volume
Price
Oil and Oilseeds Insight
REFINED SOY OIL
TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
Commodity
Contract
S2
S1
CLOSE
Soy Oil CBOT
Jul-16
32.26
32.51
Soy Oil NCDEX
Jun-16
650.1
651.5
R1
R2
Recommendations
32.79
32.97
33.13
Trading range 32.60-33
653.0
654.8
656.4
Trading range 649-657
SOYOIL PERFORMANCE
Exchange
Contract
Soyoil( NCDEX) Jun-16
Soyoil ( NCDEX) Jul-16
Open
655.50
661.00
High
655.85
661.90
Low
651.30
655.60
Last
653.00
658.95
Change(%)
-0.38%
0.00%
Vol
52220
12840
Change%
OI
-28.81% 123930
-53.28% 82080
Change(%)
2.37%
-0.55%
*Note: - Rs/10kg
Exchange Contract
Soyoil CBOT Jul-16
Soyoil CBOT Aug-16
Open
32.43
32.6
High
32.9
33.02
Low
32.28
32.39
Last
32.79
32.9
Change(%)
Basis
0.89%
0.89%
5.00
*Note-Cents/lb
0.00
Review







-5.00
Refined. Soy oil June’16 futures at NCDEX yesterday
opened on a flat note. It traded down for most part of the
day.
The prices closed negatively on adequate supplies of soyoil
due to higher imports in the domestic markets.
As per Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), in April’16
around 348,195 MT of Soyoil were imported, up by 8.1% on
m/m and 86.4% on y/y.
In CBOT, Soyoil future yesterday closed positively on lower
soybean crushing in April’16.
According to USDAs May’16 WASDE report, Soyoil
production in US for 2016-17 is likely to rise by 1% to 10.03
million MT. Meanwhile, globally production is increasing by
2.7% to 53.63 million MT.
As per NOPA, US soybean crushing fell to 147.614 million
bushels down by 5.79% on m/m and 1.83% on y/y.
In CBOT, Soy oil July’16 future contract is now trading at
32.16 cents/ lbs. down by 0.09%.
-10.00
-15.00
-20.00
-25.00
9-May
10-May
11-May
12-May
13-May
14-May
15-May
16-May
Mumbai
Soy Oil-Palm oil Spread Analysis:
120
105
10-May
11-May
12-May
13-May
16-May
Derivative Analysis
Outlook
The supplies of soyoil have risen in the domestic markets due to
higher imports and it may weigh on the prices today. However,
chances of any major fall are limited as domestic demand may
recover at lower levels. The RSO-CPO future price spread has
declined in favor of ref. soyoil. It may further weaken on
expectation of rise in CPO prices. In CBOT; Soyoil future prices
may trade moderately higher on expectation of higher exports
demand. It may also take positive cues from Malaysian palm oil
prices.
680
130000
115000
100000
660
85000
70000
55000
640
40000
25000
620
10000
3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May 9-May 10-May 11-May 12-May 13-May 16-May
Open Interest
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Volume
Price
Oil and Oilseeds Insight
MUSTARD SEED
TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
Commodity
Contract
RM Seed
Jun-16
S2
S1
4386
4410
RM SEED PERFORMANCE
Exchange
Contract
Open
RM SEED (NCDEX) Jun-16
4393
Jul-16
RM SEED (NCDEX)
4464
CLOSE
4438
High
4460
4530
R1
R2
4460
4480
Low
4393
4464
Recommendations
Sell at 4475-4480 TP 4390 SL 4520
Last
4438
4509
Change(%) Vol
0.29%
44970
0.31%
9800
Change%
-36.85%
8.77%
OI Change(%)
70670 -0.42%
23230
6.22%
Note: NCDEX: Rs/Quintal
Review
 RM Seed June’16 futures at NCDEX platform
yesterday opened negatively. However it traded
higher for most part of the day.
 The prices closed moderately higher as lower
supplies in the physical markets supported the prices.
 According to Solvent Extractors’ Association around
14,163 MT of RM Seed Oil meals were exported in
April’16 down by 80% on y/y
 Also around 51,087 MT of Canola Oil was imported in
April ’16 up by 52.29% on y/y whereas on m/m the
imports have rose by around 90.18%
 In Rajasthan, around 1-1.1 Lakh bags were reported
with spot prices at Jaipur hovering in the range of
Rs4525-4530/quintal.
 In Jaipur, Kachi Ghani traded in the range of Rs.830831/10 Kg and mustard oil cake prices hovered in the
range of Rs2290-2295/quintal.
Outlook
Crush Margin
Market price Recovery Rs/quintal
(Rs/quintal) percentage
Particulars
A.Cost of Seed
B.benefit of lab &weight tolerance
C.Market price of mustard oil cake
D.Market price of Kachi ghani oil
E.Total Recovery
F Gross Margin (E-(A-B))
G.Processing Cost
H.Crush Margin (F-G)
2293
8305
62
37
4482
45
2293
3156
4554
117
125
-8
Spread Matrix
Spot
0
-87
-16
62
Spot
June
July
August
June
July
0
71
149
0
78
August
0
Derivative Analysis
For today, the prices may trade down as subdued
demand at higher levels amongst oil millers and crushing
units. The demand for mustard oil is weak in the
domestic market due to prevailing hot temperature in
most part of Northern and Eastern India. Moreover,
higher imports of canola oil are likely to add on to the
existing supplies. This may pressurize RM Seed prices in
the near term.
4650
106000
91000
76000
4500
61000
46000
4350
31000
16000
4200
1000
3-May
4-May
5-May
6-May
Open interest
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9-May
10-May 11-May 12-May 13-May 16-May
Volume
Price
Oil and Oilseeds Insight
PALM OILs
TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATION
Commodity
Contract
S2
S1
CLOSE
R1
R2
Recommendations
CPO BMD
July-16
2622
2629
2636
2642
2648
Buy at 2620-2615 TP 2660 SL 2590
CPO MCX
June-16
536.1
538.4
541.0
543.0
544.9
Buy at 538.50-538 TP 546 SL 534
CRUDE PALM OIL PERFORMANCE
Exchange
BMD-CPO
BMD-CPO
BMD-CPO
Contract
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Open
2605
2583
2540
High
2624
2599
2566
Low
2585
2562
2532
Last
2612
2587
2551
Change(%)
0.97%
1.05%
0.91%
Vol
9206
17229
6703
Change%
-64.41%
40.46%
-25.13%
OI
64551
55563
56728
Change(%)
-2.41%
5.46%
2.28%
Contract
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Open
548
541.2
535
High
549.2
543
537.9
Low
542.7
536.7
531.8
Last
546.6
541
536.1
Change(%)
-0.13%
0.15%
0.13%
Vol
1223
1415
294
Change%
-52.00%
-32.33%
-28.81%
OI
3065
4736
1309
Change(%)
0.72%
0.02%
-1.13%
*Note-MYR/MT
Exchange
MCX-CPO
MCX-CPO
MCX-CPO
*Note-Rs/10Kg
Review
 MCX CPO June’16 future prices yesterday opened on a
marginally positive note. It traded up for most part of the
day.
 The prices closed higher on anticipation of rise in domestic
demand ahead of Ramzaan.
 BMD CPO future prices yesterday opened positively and
traded up for most part of the day.
 It closed higher as rise in domestic demand ahead of
Ramzaan amid lower inventories supported CPO prices.
 As per Malaysian custom dept., crude palm oil export
taxation has been raised to 5.5% from June’16.
 As per MPOB, Inventories fell 4.5% to 1.80 million metric
tons in April’16 from a month earlier, declining for a fifth
month in the longest streak since June 2013.
 As per USDA’s WASDE report, global production of palm
oil is likely to be at 61.5 million MT in 2015-16.
st
 As per Intertek, Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 th
15 2016 are at 563,172 MT up by 16.3% ON m/m during
the same PERIOD.
 In BMD, CPO July’16 future contract is now trading at 2635
MYR/MT up by 0.88%
Derivative Analysis
550
5000
4000
3000
540
2000
1000
530
0
10-May
11-May
Open Interest
12-May
13-May
Volume
16-May
Price
Basis
25
20
15
10
5
Outlook
0
For today, CPO futures at MCX may trade on a positive note
as import demand may increase ahead of the implementation
of revise Malaysian export taxes in June’16. Moreover,
domestic demand is steady to moderately high which may
push prices up.
At BMD, CPO futures may trade on a moderately positive note
on higher domestic demand due to Ramzaan amid lower
inventories and production.
10-May
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11-May
12-May
13-May
Kandla
14-May
15-May
16-May
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