Centre for Studies in Democratisation CSD Students' Working Paper Series Value localization through politics in democratizing states: Liberia’s „The Auditor General vs. The Honorable House of the Senate“ Sebastian Gehart s.h.gehart@warwick.ac.uk Working Paper n. 9/ 2011 Centre for Studies in Democratisation Department of Politics and International Studies University of Warwick Coventry CV4 7AL United Kingdom http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/pais/research/csd/ The Centre for Studies in Democratisation (CSD) was established at the University of Warwick in 1992 in response to a growing interest in the study of democracy at a theoretical and empirical level. Democratisation has become a central political theme and features now prominently on the foreign policy agenda of western countries. Members of CSD are seeking to understand why, how and when democracies emerge, sustain or collapse. They also investigate the reasons why democratisation can sometimes be problematic. Do not hesitate to contact us for more information! Renske Doorenspleet (Director): Renske.Doorenspleet@warwick.ac.uk Or visit our website: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/pais/research/csd/ Abstract Is democratization an improvement of the rules and institutions that govern and constrain political competition over policies, values and – crucially – power? Or, inversely, is it the struggle of politics that shapes those institutions in the image of appropriated values and ideas, including democratic ones? This article argues for the latter as both democratization literature and the contemporary efforts to promote democracy abroad appear negligent of the pivotal role of human political agency for mooring democratic ideals within authoritative political routines and institutions. Rather than subordinating the competitive struggles of politics to formal institutions – the primacy of “good rules” – the argument is made that currently prevailing challenges to democratization are better understood by focussing on domestic political contestation as an essential causal mechanism in driving transition processes. Specifically, I hypothesise in this article that the localization of values, democratic or otherwise, by agents in political struggles over more tangible issues, and ultimately over power, breathe life into a value systems’ logic of appropriateness within a polity’s institutional architecture. To provide supporting evidence, I draw on a case of intra-elite dispute in Liberia documented in the 2008 Liberian Supreme Court’s ruling on “the Auditor General vs. the Honourable House of Senate of the Republic of Liberia”. Motivated by the preliminary findings of this exploratory case, the article forwards approaches for further research on agency-based democratization mechanisms. Emphasising the catalyst of political agency in transition processes, the article seeks to offer valuable new perspective on challenges to democratization that are currently widely discussed in democratization literature and theory. Such challenges include (i) the threat of non-democratic ideological competition, the (ii) perseverance of hybrid regimes with only superficial democratic veneer and (iii) the assertiveness of nationalisms against international democracy promotion efforts. Keywords: Agency, Democratization, Liberia, Political Contestation The Perils of an Imported State: Explanations for Democratic Failure in Zambia Theo Bass 1. Introduction Robert Putnam writes: “Montesquieu observed that, at birth of new polities, leaders mold institutions, whereas afterwards institutions mold leaders.” (ibid., 1993: 26) Democratization, in many ways, is the birth of a new polity from an old. So the question arises, whether one should look towards the agency of leaders or toward institutions? Is democratization improving the institutions that govern and constrain politics? Or is it the struggle of politics that shapes institutions in the image of appropriated values and ideas, including democratic ones? Without denying mutually interdependent effects, this article argues in favour of placing a greater emphasis on the latter. The is a topical argument due to the surprising hesitation of both theory and practice of democracy promotion to address the pivotal role of political agency, despite the fact that democracy promotion is currently challenged by a range of questions which are not easily pursued by more structural notions of democratization: How do politicised foreign affairs of influential nondemocratic states like China or Russia influence democratization? How can backlashes against democracy promotion be explained? Or, how do hybrid regimes draw stability and legitimacy from a motley bricolage of values and institutions? Answering these questions requires a closer investigation of 1 political agents who localize ideas and values into norms within a polity. Thus, if agency plays a role in mooring values and ideals, including democratic ones, within authoritative political routines and institutions, and if outcomes of democratization could have been different, save for the impact and implications of certain conscious actions by agents (Jackson, 2006), than agency is a pivotal mechanism to democratization processes in need of a more robust conceptualization. This, moreover, has immediate practical implications as efforts of democracy promotion through aid and foreign relations have become acutely aware of the limits of imposing reforms without domestic support or “ownership”, yet remain similarly reluctant to recognize the pivotal role of political agency. This article’s exploratory venture into the concept and role of agency in democratization builds empirically on a case study from Liberia concerning the political contestation between Liberia’s Legislature and its contentious General Auditor (GA) in a legal dispute in 2008. It proceeds as follows. First, I outline three prominent contemporary issues which challenge democratization theory today. Second, I briefly review influential democratization literature with a view towards the lacuna of omitting political agency, before, third, introducing a preliminary concept of value localization through agency in political contestations as pivotal mechanism in democratization processes. Fourth, I provide support for the hypothesized concept with an exploratory case of a dispute among political elites in Liberia. The fifth part revisits the outlined challenges to democratization with a perspective from the newly conceptualized notion of agency. The final part concludes. 2 2. Three puzzles for democratization efforts and theory The promotion of good governance and democracy in developing countries remains an important ambition of the international community even as the post-Cold War “wave” (Huntington, 1991) of democratization throughout the world has abated and democratic values and practices appear to be in retreat. Concerning democratic values, the annual Freedom House (FH) survey of political and civil rights reports that the year 2009, with 40 countries becoming “less free”, was the fourth consecutive year with global freedom in decline. This makes it the longest consecutive period of setbacks for freedom in the nearly 40-year history of the report (Puddington, 2010). Regarding democratic practices, electoral democracies (by the definition of FH) declined from the all-time high of 123 countries in 2006 to 116 in 2009 (Freedom House, 2010). Though the precise measures used by FH are contested, the institute’s basic diagnosis of a “global freedom recession” is generally accepted. As a consequence, democracy promotion in Africa and other parts of the world are under greater scrutiny and a range of issues have been identified which complicate transition processes. Unsurprisingly, these issues receive significant attention today as researchers and policy-makers strife to both understand the global freedom recession and to support budding new opportunities for democratizations as in, most prominently, Egypt or Tunisia. The aim of this article is to offer new insights on several challenges to democratization and democracy promotion by forwarding a new perspective 3 on the underlying mechanisms of democratization processes. The three challenges discussed are (i) concerns about the impacts of a competing ‘autocracy promotion’, (ii) the potentially ambivalent results of democracy promotion and (iii) the prevalence of hybrid regimes exhibiting a bricolage of democratic and non-democratic institutions. I argue that these persist to challenge contemporary understandings of democratization precisely because the literature has long neglected the mechanisms within transition states that link causes of democratization, including its promotion through aid and diplomacy, to final outcomes. Autocracy promotion: How does democracy promotion interact with competing value systems? Even though communism no longer poses a credible global alternative to democracy, distinct ideological challenges remain. These range from cultural and/or religious forces (Fish, 2002) over domineering nationalisms to “boutique ideologies” of more limited scope (Ottaway, 2010). Here, the active engagement of China in its periphery, the Near East and Africa, as well as political efforts by Russia to rebuild its influence in former USSR states, have led scholars to speculate on a distinct “autocracy promotion” (Burnell, 2010a). Two caveats apply however. First, as Burnell notes, conceptualizing external agency of (semi-) authoritarian regimes as a mirror to democracy promotion would likely be a fallacy. Little suggests that these states seek to specifically export their model of governance. Second, any connections between cross-border influences of these regimes with observed democratization set-backs are currently speculative at best. Lacking a clear understanding on causation and processes of democratization itself, it is impossible to judge whether foreign 4 interventions of autocratic states could account for democratization setbacks. And yet, the very idea of credible anti-democratic alternatives which compete with democratization efforts in transition states reveals a crucial omission in the literature. Democratization has, at least for the post-Cold War period, been conceptualized as the more or less successful adoption of globally uncontested ideals. As obvious as is may appear, it is rarely acknowledged that democratic ideas in any transition process must necessarily interact with other, competing values, ideas and norms. What is needed to adequately gauge the impact such alternatives – whether autocratic or democratic, actively promoted or merely emulated, exogenous or native to a particular polity – is therefore an analytical concept of how different values systems interact, compete and intermingle with one another as they shape a transition process. Ambivalent effects of democracy promotion: A further puzzle for advocates of an active democracy promotion is the potential of anti-democratic backlashes against a democracy promotion that is perceived as an illegitimate, external assault on a nation’s sovereignty (Whitehead, 2010). This challenge broadly corresponds with the assumption that recent efforts by the US and its allies to change political regimes may have stained democracy promotion’s broader claims of legitimacy and international legality (Burnell, 2010a). Burnell termed this observation “anti-assistance” (2006), referring to cases where intervening states gave priority to other foreign policy goals at the expense of supporting democracy’s advance. The pivotal question then is why this should harm the prospects of democratization perceived as processes of structural change that are driven 5 by the merits of democratization’s own values? Anecdotal evidence certainly points to political agents who successfully use “anti-assistance” to frame arguments and political narratives. By this, the issue also relates to questions concerning the external interests of autocratic regimes. If nothing else, efforts of democracy promotion that are perceived as hypocritical will strengthen the cause for a more rigours enforcement of sovereignty. This, in turn, is arguably the biggest interest that states such as Russia or China are keen to uphold in international relations; certainly ahead of attempts to export their ‘vision’ of government through any form of autocracy promotion. Finally, if similar efforts of democracy promotion in comparable countries produce a variety of responses – popular backlashes and acceptance – than outcomes of transitions vary independent of the causes. Examining the processes and mechanisms of how democracy promotion efforts are adapted and localized through agency in politics is then the appropriate approach to explain these variations. Illiberal democracies and hybrid regimes: One of the biggest challenges to both democratization efforts and theory is the growing number of regimes that exhibit several important requirements of democracy, such as a nominal separation of power, yet remain, in the terminology of Freedom House, partly free or not free societies at the core. Vivid examples of this are institutionalized elections where government is both pre-determined (Burnell, 2010: 4) and yet, crucially, provided with a veneer of legitimacy. Moreover, unlike suggested by the image of transitions between autocracy and democracy, many hybrid regimes have proven to be relatively stable (Hadenius & Teorell, 2007). 6 Currently, very few analytical insights exist that would serve to differentiate clearly between autocracies with a mere democratic facade, transitional and still evolving democracies-to-be, or stable regimes of a truly hybrid nature. The issue is further complicated by a lively debate on measurements and criteria to classify democratization and (various) hybrid outcomes (Geddes, 2009: 280). This has resulted in a trend to develop ever more rarefied categories for hybrid regimes between the two poles of democracy and autocracy (e.g. Diamond, 2002). As an alternative, this article forwards causal mechanisms as the key to understanding transition processes which may culminate into hybrid regimes as unique outcomes in themselves. The three issues discussed above do all feature prominently in contemporary democratization research. A major reason they do so is in all these cases the lack of knowledge concerning the transitional processes and mechanisms linking causes to outcomes. Research in this field has thoroughly assessed both the various causes, both internal and external, which favour democratization and the varied outcomes of democratization efforts in developing countries (e.g. Diamond, 1999). And yet, surprisingly little work exists on what precisely happens inside the political and social systems of democratizing states. This is a lacuna in democratization literature worthy of further investigation. 3. Literature review The democratization literature, starting with Lipset’s (1959) famous argument of linking democratization to economic development, is rich with 7 research and theories on the causes, but surprisingly silent on the processes of democratization. And despite 50 years of intense work, very little knowledge about causes of democratization is uncontested. Observation of the latter leads Geddes (2009) to point to the wealth of explanations which appear specific to particular world regions or to particular periods in time to emphasise the likely equifinality of democratization and the multitude of potential causes. This indicates that democratization literature’s uncertainty about causes is in no small part a consequence of its neglect of processes. To better illustrate the need for research emphasising agency-based mechanisms of democratization processes, I thus revisit several mainstays of contemporary democratization research and theory. To structure this review I categorize the literature by the emphasis that is given to on one of three constitutive components of a democratizing system: (i) the state itself, (ii) its institutions, or (iii) its politics (see Sangmpam, 2007). State-focussed theories of democratization: State-focussed or structural approaches to democratization regard democracy as the political expression of the broader social order of modern society (Bratton & Van de Walle, 1997). The state is regarded as “a set of relationships and interactions among social classes and groups that is organized and regulated by political power; as the nodal point of these relationships” (Sangmpam, 2007: 203). As a consequence, democratization research in this tradition models the character of these power relations between social classes – often in a dichotomy of ruling elite and the others – as a dependent outcome of 8 aggregate structural forces. Geddes (2009) gives an excellent overview of this literature and finds it grounded within International Political Economy (IPE). As such, work in this tradition tends to explain democratization by shifts in the distribution of power over capital and resources that are dependent on changes in both international (e.g. mobility of capital) and domestic factors (e.g. income distribution). But by developing democratization theory through game-theoretic modelling, these approaches suffer three notable shortcomings if applied to the three challenges that were outlined above. First, different assumptions lead to different outcomes. This is evident for example in whether these studies model a state’s ruling elite as a-priori rich, and thus concerned primarily with redistribution (Acemoglu & Robinson, 2001; Boix, 2003), or as income maximising, and thus primarily concerned with access to revenues as perquisites of public office (North & Weingast, 1989). In the former, greater income equality makes democratization more likely as the ruling rich need to fear redistribution less. In the latter, income distribution is irrelevant as the maximization of income is the driving interest regardless of the distribution of wealth (Geddes, 2009). Furthermore, the equifinality of democratization implies that contradicting models like these could both (fail to) apply in different countries, regions and scenarios. As such, these theories provide few analytical insights to help explain the broader ebb of democracy as observed by FH and others. Second, these models offer no conceptual space for stable hybrid regimes. The only possible equilibrium outcomes of these models are autocratic or democratic regimes. Hybrids are seen solely as either transitional phases or 9 as simply disguises of de-facto autocratic regimes. These models therefore struggle to explain the spread of stable, even reasonably legitimate hybrid regimes, which are challenging democratization scholars and policy makers alike. Third, the structural variables these theories build on leave little space for agency, including the international promoting democratization (or autocracy). The only inferable insight is that foreign capital inflows, whether in the form of aid or investments, might skew a balance in favour of ruling elites if they decrease reliance on tax revenues and the added accountability associated with them. However, if the structural factors of the global economy such as captial mobility dominate the domestic, even potentially autocracy-supporting effects of aid and capital transfers should be temporary. Likewise, remittances might have a polar effect as capital inflows benefiting, potentially, the non-elite. More importantly however, there appears to be no way to differentiate the effect of capital inflows by the origin’s intent. Whether tied to the promotion of democracy or of autocratic models, the political intent of aid is thus negligible in the logic of IPEinspired models. Accordingly, these models are ill-suited to help explore or explain either perceived “backlashes” against democratization efforts, particularly if driven by political elites, or the potential effects of “autocracy promotion”. Institution-focussed theories of democratization: Theory with a focus on the requisites and changes of institutions are a mainstay of democratization literature since its inception. Lipset’s article argues decisively in favour of 10 structural societal changes (e.g. urbanization, education, industrialization, etc…) and “a value system allowing the peaceful ‘play’ of power” (ibid., 1959: 71) as necessary pre-conditions for a stable and dynamic democracy. Subsequent scholars have investigated elements of this argument. Regarding social institutions for example, the correlation between education, especially primary education, and democracy is well established (Geddes, 2009). Flipping Lipset’s argument, research linking the rule of law to economic growth (La Porta, Lopez-de-Silanes, Shleifer, & Vishny, 1998) has proven to be immensely influential among both academics and development organisations like the World Bank. Today, “Institution building/strengthening” lies at the heart of the good governance agendas of donors and multilateral aid organisations and is formally inscribed in international declarations like the 2005 Paris Declaration (OECD, 2005). Even democracy as a concept is frequently defined through its requisite institutions (e.g. multi-party elections, universal suffrage, civic rights, etc…), which makes it natural to conceptualize democratization as the functional emergence of these defining institutions. Reflecting on past setbacks to democratizations, the main caveat again appears to be a neglect of agency in the processes linking causes to democratizing outcomes. Deviant cases like the Philippines, cited by Lipset in 1959 as evidence for the strong links between favourable institutional trends such as widespread education and democratisation, continue to defy the institutionalist rationale. As elsewhere, the Philippines’ subsequent return to a non-democratic regime is attributed mainly the agency of key political figures. However, if one acknowledges the anti-democratic influence of actors such as Ferdinand 11 Marcos and his follower, or that of Hugo Chavez or Vladimir Putin as more recent examples, than one accepts that political agency is a crucial factor in shaping transition outcomes. This does not dismiss the role of either formal or informal institutions or neglects that institutions do affect politics and socio-economic outcomes. All the same, institutions do not ubiquitously structure or determine politics and its outcomes as perceived by institutionalists. Rather, and especially facing weak institutions, ”it is politics that imposes its imprint on the institutions, behaviours and the state format and determines them, even though the state is the intersecting point.” (Sangmpam, 2007). For Africa in particular, this finding is confirmed by research identifying intra-elite competition above societal factors like education or participation as the crucial precondition for successful democratization (Hadenius & Teorell, 2007). Political contestation then is a pivotal stepping stone to democracy as “regimes of this type are more amenable to incremental improvements” (Lindberg, 2006). Politics are thereby identified as the likely locus of mechanisms in a transition process. Politics-focussed theories of democratization: Little politics-focussed democratization theory exists. Despite this, the role of politics, and of political elites as ‘agents of change’, has been raised by some studies and incorporated into practice, notably by British DFID’s ‘Drivers of Change’ (DOC) approach. Curiously, and perhaps in part explained by aid-agencies reluctance to touch ‘politics’, politics-related notions of democratization in both academia and practice often construct a highly idealized notion of 12 political agency based on self-less and unbiased ‘political will’: “’Political will’ is the commitment of a country’s rulers to undertake and see through to implementation a particular policy course. […] There, political will must be robust and sincere. That is, reform leaders must be committed not only to undertake actions to achieve reform objectives, but also ‘to sustain the costs of those actions over time’.” (Diamond, 2004, p. 278) Such a notion of ‘political will’ among elites appears needlessly simplistic and idealistic. Simplistic, because few scholars, let alone politicians, could likely agree on a definite democratic ideal approachable by a distinct reform path, which would be a prerequisite for even intrinsically motivated leaders to agree on a set of actions. Idealistic, since such self-less agency is rare in even mature democracies; too rare, most certainly, to constitute a satisfying explanation for recent or historic transitions to democracy more broadly: “The groups that dominate the transition are seldom interested in democracy solely as an end in itself and may often shape the new structures to enhance their own privileges.” (Pinkney, 2003) This does not necessarily define political agency in the terms of a publicchoice model of utility-maximizing politicians, but simply highlights that the ends of democracy promotion – the localization of democratic values into norms-in-use – are usually mere means of norm-taking agents in the pursuit of their own ends. Diamond’s definition of ‘political will’, though pointing to the crucial role of agency, needlessly conflates the ambitions of democracy promotion with the ambitions of the agents driving transition processes. Indeed, such a congruence of aims is highly unlikely because agency is inevitably grounded in context (Jackson, 2006) and thus concerned 13 with specific meanings-in-use instead of democratic transition more broadly. Thus, agency in the formulation by Giddens, “refers not to the intentions people have in doing things but to their capability of doing those things in the first place […].” (1984: 9). All this, however, without diminishing the pivotal importance of politics as a mechanism of democratization in a sense that there is still “the pre-eminence of politics vis-à-vis institutions and the state even though both affect politics in return” (Sangmpam, 2007: 220). This article’s exploratory attempt to theorize on politics as a democratization mechanism consequently emphasises the competitive nature of politics as the driving element of the formative process, and not a political agent’s individual specific intent. To summarize therefore, both state-focussed and institution-focussed conceptions of democratization emphasis structural factors and consequently struggle to account for the observable multi-finality of transition processes before similar causes and circumstances. Existing politics-focussed approaches needlessly conflate political agency in democratizing states with domestic political agency for democratization as an intrinsic interests of agents. What is needed then is a conception of agency that is cognizant of the instrumental role of politics in shaping democratization processes, yet does not immediately categorize the variety of intrinsic, context-focussed interests of political agents by the broader, and more abstract long-term objective of nudging a polity towards successful transition towards democracy. I thus proceed by developing exploratory hypotheses for politics as procedural mechanism in transition states and illustrate these with a case 14 study on contesting political elites in Liberia, drawing evidence from a 2008 ruling of the Liberia’s Supreme Court (SCL, 2008). The case serves as a “plausibility probe” (George & Bennett, 2005) for the hypotheses of this article. 4. Conceptualizing democratization mechanisms: the crucial role of political agency So far this article identified a need for an analytical concept to capture the procedural mechanisms of democratization. Such a concept should furthermore agree with the finding of a good number of political philosophers that political institutions and the state are an effect of politics as competition (Sangmpam, 2007: 205), and politics thus the likely cause-toeffect link that drives changes in institutions and the state (Held, 1983). Thus, in a nutshell, a successful transition to democracy is itself driven by the conduct of political contestation over norms and ideas which subsequently shape the institutions of government and the state. This iterative deepening of democratic institutions through the democratic conduct of politics has been expressed, at its most concise, by Amartya Sen noting: “A country does not have to be deemed fit for democracy; rather, it has to become fit through democracy.” (1999). Inversely, the lack of democratic political contestation over extended periods is in turn associated with a deterioration of democratic institutions as it 15 “gives rise to rampant corruption, and the associated politicization and dysfunction of what should be independent “referee” institutions – the judiciary, electoral commissions, prosecutorial services, and ombudsman agencies, among others” (Dizard & Walker, 2010: 9). Whereas countries, which have stagnated in an authoritarian system that moulded all institutions to the preservation of power of a singular faction may likely only experience change through more singular events that break drastically with the established order, as perhaps seen recently in Tunisia or Egypt, it is the countries of the “the vulnerable middle”, as Freedom House calls them, where the actions and conduct agents in politics can set the transition processes on different pathways. To better account for these institutional imprints through the (lack of) democratic conduct of political contestation, I forward below a first, preliminary outline for an analytical concept by drawing on studies by constructivists and institutionalists who stand outside democratization literature, yet concern themselves with the transposition of values and norms. I thereby expand upon the common definitions of democracy (as opposed to democratization) as a specific requisite set of institutions that organize the relationships and interactions in a society, or, in other words, the state as defined by Sangmpam (2007). Rather, democratization is conceived as an evolutionary change of these institutions towards democracy. This change is, I argue, driven in turn by a specific causal mechanism located within politics that is the contestation of agents making use of normative values (hence: “norm-takers”) as they compete over power. It is this formative mechanism of political contestations by which values, 16 including, but not exclusively democratic ones, as privately held beliefs, become “localized” (Acharya, 2004) as norms in the institutional architecture of a state. As such, norms differ from values primarily by being “intersubjectively shared, collectively legitimated and/or institutionalized” (Park & Vetterlein, 2010). Political contestation on the other hand is forwarded over alternative mechanisms in the literature, such as coercion, learning or emulation (Simmons, Dobbins & Garret, 2008), to adequately capture the comparative struggle of competing value systems within democratizing political systems. A better understanding of the localization of democratic values through political contestation ultimately serves to sheds new light on the challenges to democratization introduced earlier. I proceed by investigating three questions on the causal mechanism of democratization as hypothesized above. First, why is politics the locus of democratization mechanisms? Second, why is contestation in politics crucial to transforming values into localized norms? And finally, how does agencydriven localization of values animate the multi-final evolutionary processes of institutional change? 4.1. Why politics is the locus of democratization mechanisms Democracy rests on institutions. These institutions, both informal and formal, are structures infused with values and thereby given meaning (Selznick, 1959). Many hybrid regimes are replete with examples of ostensibly democratic structures that exercise vastly different and valuedependent influences over actions and outcomes. Because of this, transition processes have direct and tangible consequences 17 for both domestic political actors and organizations as they reconfigure the allocation of political power and, by implication, all the influence and perquisites that flow from it. Accordingly, promoting new values concerning political institutions is in equal measures an advocacy for a realignment of the rules and a transformation of the composition of the players in the processes of public decision making. As a consequence, such processes tend to be hard fought among domestic stakeholders who stand to gain or lose from transition outcomes. This is true, even if individual “norm-takers” adopt new values due to coercion, persuasion or emulation. Furthermore, values, including democratic ones, are not definite prescriptions. They can be interpreted. And they can acquire specific character only in the application to a specific context (Wiener, 2009). For these reasons, contestation is the likely outcome to any advocacy of democratic values and the crucible of their successful localization. Politics, where contestations over power and societal structures take place thus occupies a formative position over the state and its institutions. On evidence from the developing world Sangmpam observes that politics as such do not require formal institutions. In contrast, institutions and the state can hardly occur without politics generating and sustaining them (ibid., 2007, p. 204). Politics can and do occur in the absence of formal institutions and the outcomes of politics generate and shape the institutions of a state, which in turn exercise path dependent constraints on future politics. This essentially is Putnam’s previously quoted note that “… at birth of new polities, leaders mold institutions, whereas afterwards institutions mold leaders.” (ibid., 18 1993). So far as democratization studies are concerned with processes of transition from which new polities emerge, it is the formative aspect of politics vis-à-vis institution that demands a closer investigation. 4.2. How political contestation is transforming values into localized norms Democratization studies, like development studies in general, have long agonized over concepts of ‘ownership’ and, as noted above, ‘political will’. Behind these ideas lies the insight that convictions, beliefs and values need to be grounded with the respective actors in developing countries to promote change successfully. Constructivist literature on the diffusion of values and norms has developed a sophisticated set of concepts on mechanisms that translate, or “localize” norms and values to a specific group, people or polity. These include mechanisms such as persuasion, socialization or processes of learning (see Checkel, 1998) and agent strategies such as framing or grafting of ideas to make them viable in a specific context (see Acharya, 2004). These are valuable concepts as they attribute a more central role to agency in the adoption of values into norms. The emphasis here is nevertheless given to the contestation of values, including democratic ones, with competing, often pre-existing value systems and normative structures as a central mechanism. This focus on contestation allows the localization of values to be analysed with respect to competing values and norms. For democratization studies this is crucial, as democratic values must not be analysed as “the end point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human 19 government” (Fukuyama, 1992). Instead, they are but one contender among alternatives. In a democratic transition then, a polity does not move up “vertically” vis-à-vis inferior, often unconsidered alternatives as transhistorical projection like Fukuyama’s would have it, but rather moves “horizontally” on a plane vis-à-vis different, if perhaps less desirable alternatives. If democratic values are adopted by norm-taking agents to be used in competition over power, where they compete over power, then the successes of agents who make use of democratic values is what ultimately transmutes the respective democratic values into localized norms. Accordingly, the credibility of ideologies competing with democratic values then depends on their use in legitimizing political positions and actions domestically. In contrast, the majority of existing research on autocratic challenges to democratization has, in the tradition of Fukuyama (1992), been pre-occupied with measuring the credibility of alternatives to liberal democracy by the yardstick of Cold War’s socialism; i.e. their global proliferation or their comprehensiveness as a valid blueprints for entire societal systems (see Ottaway, 2010). Neither, however, is necessary for a credible ideological challenge within the politics of a democratizing state. Even in the years of the Cold War, the global ideological struggle has as often as not been used as a narrative within domestic politics that was employed to justify positions in more specific, national or even local political struggles. Closer observation reveals a great variety of capitalisms (and socialisms) even before 1989. This indicates that global ideological positions are localized to each polity. Indeed, within liberal democracies today, politicians rely on constructing (perhaps more artificial) ideological 20 cleavages to justify their position in political struggles over specific issues and – crucially – political power. Moreover, norm-taking agents may even argue in a different value-system in separate political contestations as long as they frame arguments convincingly. As specific issues are contested, rather than ideology, actors are not bound to argue coherently within a single consistent value framework. 4.3. How agency-driven value localization drives multi-final transition processes A longstanding debate revolves around asking whether democratization is evolutionary or revolutionary change. Popular perceptions of new democracies emerging from unique political shake-ups, including the colour revolutions in the Russian periphery, contagious regional shifts towards democracy in Latin America in the 1980s (Hagopian & Mainwaring, 2005), or, to a lesser extent, the often futile attempts to democratize post-conflict and fragile states through elections under an international trusteeship, have associated democratization with incisive and revolutionary types of change. In contrast, institutionalist research made significant contributions that mitigate this link between revolutionary change and democratic transition. These studies argue convincingly in favour of more gradual, path dependent changes that both precede and succeed the more visible and seemingly discontinuous outward signs of transition (Kiser & Kane, 2001). 21 Summarizing research on historic democratizations, Campbell notes that “… in contrast to many theories that suggested that democratic revolutions trigger a sudden shift from patrimonial to bureaucratic state institutions, […] the process was, upon closer inspection more evolutionary than revolutionary.” (2004, p. 40). Furthermore, more evolutionary notions of democratization are clearly behind international efforts to promote democracy as far as they make use of concessionary and, usually, consensual provision of technical and financial support through aid programmes. Those programmes plainly build on the assumption of a continuous progress in state structures towards democracy that international efforts can support. They therefore agree with the institutionalist emphasis on evolutionary change. Yet, analysing democratization through the lens of evolutionary institutional change often means the crucial role of agency is sidelined. In the institutionalist literature, evolutionary change is seen to follow structural conditions with actors operating within the appropriate logics of these structures. Unlike concepts of revolutionary change however, theories on the evolution of institutions often discard, or fail to account for agency. In transition processes agency nevertheless clearly matter. As noted above, illustrations of a global ‘democracy recession’ with drawing on cases such as Russia, Uzbekistan, Venezuela or Thailand commonly see causation in the agency of prominent individuals like, for example, Vladimir Putin or Hugo Chavez. Their choice of authoritarian intervention is seen to override, even reverses the more structural processes of democratization. As a consequence, democratization literature is marked by a curious asymmetry 22 between agency-less democratization and agency-driven roll-backs. The shortcoming of democratization theory to bridge structural conditions and human choices thus constitutes a notable lacuna (Burnell & Youngs, 2010) A solution to this, as well as a crucial step towards reconciling democratization processes with political agency is achieved by moving away from analysing greater, aggregate value systems such as democracy and towards research on specifics, localized values’ “meaning-in-use” (Wiener, 2009) within a polity. In other words, there is a need for democratization research to disaggregate complex value systems such as ‘democracy’ into the constitutive parts adopted by norm-taking agents in specific political struggles at often minute details of policy making. Facing a dispute over power, agents rarely champion ‘democracy’ as a whole, but rather advocate a specific value or principal they would like to see localized as a norm-in-use to their own benefit. Individually, every localized norm is then part of an overarching process of shifting institutions. And over time, the aggregation of values as localized norms-in-use through the mechanism of politics come to shape a countries distinct trajectory in transition and the unique outcomes that will constitute its polity. Conceptualizing democratization, or more precisely transition, as an evolutionary culmination of localized norms-in-use has several advantages. Evolutionary change, as a process, becomes multi-directional, reversible and open to hybridization. The outcomes become of this process in turn become more dependent on the relative assertiveness of the ideals in the political contestations of a transition state. The following case study aims to give insight into how specific, opposing 23 values are contested in the politics of a democratizing country, in this case the Republic of Liberia. The article then concludes with asking how these insights speak to the three challenges to democratization theory. 5. Case Study: the changing Accountability Institutions in Liberia. As exposition and as an exploratory case for the theoretical considerations so far I investigate a recent dispute, or a political contestation, from Liberia. As a country that has recently emerged from decades of intermitted civil war and bloodshed, Liberia has risen rapidly in democracy-rankings from the very bottom it occupied under both the brutal regime of Charles Taylor and the ineffective National Transitional Government (NTGL), which succeeding Taylor in 2003, to become a middling, partly-free Democracy in West Africa. In 2003 and 2006 the Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) ranked Liberia at 115 (of 115) and 114 respectively. Yet, after Ellen Johnson Sirleaf took office as president in 2006, Liberia climbed ranks quickly to 98 in 2008 and 79 (of now 128) in 2010. Today, Freedom House ranks Liberia among the 32 “Countries at the Crossroads” between successful democratization or more authoritarian forms of government. Before a gloomy assessment of democratization in the world, they classify Liberia as one of a few countries that “have made progress in some areas of democratic governance” (Dizard & Walker, 2010). Nevertheless, Liberia still depends on UN peacekeepers to provide security and continues to suffer from endemic corruption, infrequent ethnic tensions, and personality centred party politics without stable democratic structures or procedures (BTI, 2009). Facing presidential elections again in 2011, Liberia is thus truly at a 24 crossroad. The country could conceivable push for more comprehensive democratization. Yet, failing this, it may equally likely be bogged down in transitional limbo: a flawed, partly-free democracy pervaded by neopatrimonial and ethnic power structures, as well as pervasive corruption (The Economist, 2010). Moreover, Liberia provides an illustrative case in this study because its contemporary transition proceeds across starkly opposing values systems. Political agents in Liberia draw on these value systems in the pursuit of their aims. In simplification for the sake of the arguments clarity, I dichotomize these value systems as (a) liberal democracy and (b) a neo-patrimonial structuring of power. The first, liberal democracy, is advocated mainly by two groups in Liberia. The first is the international community, which launched one of the biggest intervention programmes of Sub-Sahara Africa in the Governance Economic Management Assistance Program (GEMAP). The GEMAP gives foreign experts extensive authority in Liberia’s economic policies and makes strong efforts to promote principles of good governance and democracy such as transparency and a meritocratic bureaucracy. A notable exception to GEMAP’s mandate however, especially with concern to the case examined here, is the judiciary, where it was decided after many consultations to not bring foreign judges into Liberian Courts. A donor-financed Judicial Training Institute was launched only in June 2008. Paralleling the international efforts, the Sirleaf administration has purposefully included many skilled technocrats, including from the Liberian Diaspora (BTI, 2009; Dunn, 2010), and initially been be remarkably tenacious in its commitment to fight corruption and promote democratic 25 reforms. Despite some recently emerging critizism of the Sirleaf administration concerning transparency (see Dunn, 2010), both groups can be seen as active constituents for Liberia’s democratization. And both are, to different degrees, also of transnational origin and as such (President Sirleaf’s long domestic political career nonwithstanding) comparatively new additions to the Liberian polity. The prominent stake placed by the international community into the democratization of Liberia, whether directly through programmes like the GEMAP, or indirectly through the international estimation of the Sirleaf administration’s efforts, therefore also makes Libera an exemplary case for an African state transitioning to democracy before concerted international efforts to actively promote democratization. Yet, as is typical for transition countries, democratic ideals and their advocacy do not engage an empty space devoid of politically relevant norms and values. Rather, democratic ideals in Liberia contrast, and compete with, more established power structures based on embedded alternative value systems. One prominent value system prominent in Liberia’s politics can, in this article’s simplified dichotomy, be classified as neo-patrimonial. This refers to structures build around pyramidal patron-client relationships, which historically were a key to the rule of Americo-Liberian settlers and important for ensuring loyalty in the regime of William Tolbert in the 1970s. After Samuel Doe’s 1980 coup d’état ended Americo-Liberian rule, neopatrimonial structures remained in place and even gained in relative importance vis-à-vis the states’ formal institutions as those were eroded to near dissolution during the decades of ethnic and civil war. The perseverance 26 of neo-patrimonial structures even beyond the regime of Taylor has shown them to be well embedded in the institutions of the Liberian state: “Like previous Liberian governments, the NTGL was in practice a highly competitive patrimonial environment where various elites were locked into struggles over state resources, often, but not exclusively, built on ethnic affiliation and exclusionary practices that shaped politics and the control of state institutions as a zero-sum game.” (Boas, 2009: 1334) As a consequence of these embedded structures, practices and – crucially – norms of such a patrimonial environment, corruption of “both the endemic variety resulting from decades of autocratic rule and civil war, and the specific issue of corruption among public officials today” (Dunn, 2010: 3) poses arguably the most serious current obstacle to Liberia’s democratic transition and its development more broadly. Freedom House (Dunn, 2010), in ranking different aspects of transition from 0 (weakest) to 7 (strongest), sees anticorruption and transparency with a score of 2.81 as the clearly weakest part of Liberia’s governance behind accountability and public voice (4.45), civil liberties (4.18) and the rule of law (3.36). Liberia’s General Auditing Commission (GAC) is an illustrative institution to investigate before this background. Established by a 2005 amendment to the Executive Law of 1972, the GAC has in its work repeatedly revealed the existence of significant corrupt activities in public office. The Auditor General (AG), who heads the commission, now reports to the legislature rather than the executive, though the GAC prepares three quarterly reports and an annual Uniform Accounting Report for the president, the legislature and the public. Not surprisingly therefore, especially given “the gusto with 27 which Auditor General John S. Morlu approached his job” (Dunn, 2010: 14), conflicts between the GAC and other branches of government have been frequent, even as international and public support has by and large been firmly on the side of the GAC. Serving as illustration for the argument of this article, political contestation on the basis of separate value systems is starkly revealed in a case heard by the Supreme Court of Liberia (SCL) on Liberia’s AG vs. the House of Senate of the National Legislature of the Republic of Liberia (the Senate). This incident is thus investigated here in further detail as a case study of political contestation as democratization mechanisms. The particular dispute heard by the SCL, while ostensibly concerned with the GA’s authority for dismissing public sector employees from the GAC, quickly became a value-laden struggle between authorities exercised along either informal lines of patronage vs. the demarcations to personal power set by the formal independence of governmental bodies. I proceed, first, with a brief chronology of the dispute as it unfolded in 2007. Second, I reflect on how its outcome led to the localization of specific democratic values as effective norm-in-use in Liberia. The dispute investigated in this case was triggered by the GA’s dismissal of about seventy GAC employees as part of a restructuring programme initiated to meet international standards for Supreme Audit Institution (SAI). These standards, including the principle of apolitical institutional independence, are written down in comparatively unambiguous terms in the 1977 Lima and Mexico Declarations1 of the International Organisation of Supreme Audit 1 www.intosai.org/en/portal/documents/intosai/general/limaundmexikodeclaration/lima_declaration/index.php? article_pos=1 28 Institutions (INTOSAI) and are applied by SAIs throughout the world in a surprisingly uniform manner. As such, they are used here as reasonably uncontested representation for a subordinate principle of democratic governance. This particular dispute crossed formal institutional boundaries when the dismissed GAC employees turned to political patrons for support in a move that is perhaps not unexpected in a system where public sector employment constitutes a significant social and economic asset and that is commonly awarded on the basis of patron-client relationships. By their action, Liberia’s Senate became involved explicitly on behalf of dismissed GAC employees when it addressed the AG in August 2007 to announce a formal investigation into his restructuring of the GAC. Specifically, the Senate issued the following two orders: “1. That pending the outcome of the investigation of complaints, you place a hold on all actions of dismissal or attempted dismissal by your office. 2. That you further re-instate all affected employees by the dismissal of downsizing endeavour of your office.” (LSC, 2008) Refusing to comply, the AG initially responded to the Senate’s stay orders by trying to build a consensus. Failing with this strategy, he moved towards a more confrontational, value-based argumentation as the dispute continued. Initially, the AG wrote an extensive letter to the Senate on September 3 rd which outlined the AG’s mandate and mission, the rationale behind his decisions, and enclosed further details on his reform plans. This first letter however made no references to international INTOSAI principles of SAI independence from political interference. Instead, the AG’s aim appears to 29 be building support for his decisions in the Senate by (a) stressing the exante transparency of the GAC restructuring as it appeared in the GAC’s budget submitted annually to both chambers of Liberia’s parliament, (b) noting his efforts to ease the dismissal for employees through compensations (e.g. “I fought hard to obtain a good package…”, LSC, 2008) and (c) emphasising his personal ties and the implicit backing for his reform among Liberia’s higher political authorities, including the president. Nonetheless, the AG’s efforts to accommodate the Senate were curtly rebuffed and the AG himself received a subpoena order. Following this, the AG changed strategy. In September 2007 the AG turned to the public with a series of widely read newspaper articles and interviews, increasingly stressing the GAC’s formal independence from the legislative branch of government. Predictably perhaps, the situation soon escalated and the Senate enacted direct measures against the person of the AG. These included (a) holding him “in legislative contempt for misinforming the international press”, (b) issuing fine to be paid to the Senate within 24 hours and (c) threatening “to pass a ‘vote of no confidence’ on your confirmation as Auditor General of the Republic of Liberia” (LSC, 2008). Ultimately, the AG turned to Liberia’s SC with a fourteen-point petition filed on September 19th 2007. The petition pleaded against the Senate’s “interfering in executive and judicial matters and functions” and in favour of measures “to restrain and prohibit the illegal and unconstitutional charges brought against the petitioner”. It furthermore requested Liberia’s SC to reaffirm the status of the “General Auditing Commission as an independent 30 and autonomous agency” in spite of the GAC’s duty to report to the Liberian legislature (LSC, 2008). The Senate, it should be noted, responded harshly by confronting Liberia’s SC itself by arguing that “The judiciary, the third branch of Government, is not vested with authority to compel or prohibit the Legislature in the performance of its legislative duties, which duties are purely political in nature and only answerable to the people who elected them” (LSC, 2008). By these actions, the clash over the GAC’s downsizing quickly escalated to a dispute over the authorities of government branches in a division of powers. The SC’s final decision ruled in favour of the AG, both confirming the institutional independence of the GAC from interference and explicitly criticising the Senate’s support of dismissed GAC employees: “Quite frankly, the aggrieved employees were ill-advised and misdirected and the respondent [i.e. the Senate] did not provide proper guidance. There is a procedure under the Civil Service Act where the aggrieved employees could have filed a complaint… .“ (LSC, 2008). A salient feature in the SC’s reasoning for their decision is the extensive use of global principles and foreign precedents; most importantly extensive guidance drawn from a ruling of the US Supreme Court against a member of the US House of Representatives in the widely cited case of Marshall v. Gordon, 243 U.S. 521 (1917)2. While not uncommon in transition countries with little records on specific jurisdiction, the explicit use of a US precedent emphasises the exogenous origin of many of the values formalized by this decision. The outcome of this dispute subsequently strengthened both the AG as a public figure in Liberia’s politics (The Inquirer, 2008) and the GAC 2 http://caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/scripts/getcase.pl?court=us&vol=243&invol=521 31 as an independent oversight institution. To conclude then, what does this episode tell about the localization of democratic values into norms-in-use in transition countries? As an exploratory case it supports the earlier made hypotheses in three regards. First, it clearly portrays the contestation of different values and their relative merit in the discourse of domestic politics in Liberia. The bolstering and support sought out by, and given to, the GAC’s laid off employees follows along established client-patron relationships, but runs across the formal boundaries of institutions and the government’s constitutional separation of powers. The actions of these former GAC employees, who also ignored established formal procedures for filing complaints, are therefore best explained as following from a neo-patrimonial logic of operating within Liberia’s public sector. The fact that the Senate defended its perceived authority in this over the GAC and AG in both court and in the public press is an indication for the embedded institutionalized power and routine this logic exercises in Liberia’s day-to-day politics. Thus, while no politician or public servant in Liberia today would openly promote neo-patrimonial values over those of a liberal democracy if asked, the political contestation over norms-in-use in specific instances like this reveal that the validity of democratic principles and values must still be assessed relative to the domestic alternatives, and not by its broader global remit. Second, there is decidedly little evidence for any intrinsic ‘political will’ among the actors to promote democratic values as such. Confronted with the Senate, Liberia’s GA first attempted to reconcile the dispute through reasoning and accommodation. He only moved towards a heavily value- 32 based framing of the dispute as an assault on the political independence of the GAC as Liberia’s SAI when the situation escalated. Likewise, there is no indication that the GA, as an individual, is any more (or less) ‘democratically inclined’ than his opponents in the Senate. He did not advocate principles of SAI independence out of any self-less motivation to promote democratic governance in Liberia, but as a reaction to a challenge to his policy and political authority. Therefore, the incident rather agrees with Pinkney’s (2003) observation that democratization outcomes are not ends in themselves, but shaped by groups that seek to defend or enhance their own position. The crucial element is the value-infused political contestation itself and not the personal or political dispositions of the AG or the Senate. And third, despite the likely not entirely self-less motives of the agents involved, the final outcome still is the recognition of Liberia’s GAC as a more independent SAI in both formal jurisdiction and the actual interinstitutional relations of Liberian politics. As such, Liberia’s formally and informally more independent governmental oversight, a common ambition and conditionality of donors and aid programmes, must be regarded as one small, but distinct step towards democratic governance. Thus in short, the political contestation over power has, in this case, proven to be instrumental to the democratization process, even if the agents involved in the political contestation were not intrinsically concerned with democratization. Nevertheless, three caveats apply to these conclusions. First, Liberia’s SC and its final ruling arguably present an inherently biased view and the SC’s decision may furthermore not hold in Liberia’s future politics. Second, as an 33 entirely intra-governmental dispute among Liberia’s political elite, the described stand-off, irrespective of its outcomes or the values that were contested, is certainly not representative for democratization as a more widespread societal transformation. Finally, this dispute may not be representative of a broad struggle among democratic and neo-patrimonial value systems; and SAI independence in particular may not be representative of the former. I will address each of these caveats in turn. First, to draw, as this article did, on documents of Liberia’s SC, any observation is likely biased against outcomes that would favour a neopatrimonial value system. In other words, it is difficult to conceive a counterfactual in a similar decision as any reasonably functional judiciary is virtually by definition already part of a more democratic governance structure. Despite this, it remains reasonable to draw on this case study for two reasons. One, the outcomes here are of far less interest than the actual dispute which preceding them. From the available sources, it is easy to conceive hypothetical counterfactuals where neo-patrimonial forces had prevailed before the case ever went before the SC, and would thus have placed Liberia’s GAC more firmly under the Senate’s informal authority. Moreover, the SC’s need to draw extensively on foreign precedent to argue its decision starkly highlights the strong domestic foundations of neopatrimonial structures within Liberia’s politics and society. Second, the dispute between different members of Liberia’s political elite surely falls short of a broad based, inclusive and participatory democratic discourse. However, as Lindberg (2006) noted, it is precisely these contestations that make a regime amenable to incremental improvements, 34 whereas broad-based, participatory systems lacking in open political contestation are much less likely to proceed towards more robust democratization (see Hadenius & Teorell, 2007). The intra-elite dispute cited here is not a case of democratic transition, but a case of the microfoundations of incremental changes in value-systems through the localization of individual values via contestation. The findings of quantitative studies such as the one by Hadenius & Teorell (2007), in conjecture, point to a close relation of these mechanisms of political contestations with democratization. Third, democracy is surely constituted of more momentous ideals than SAI independence. However, the precise observation that even subsidiary and technical principals are contested vigorously in political disputes serves here as evidence of the inevitable contestation of democratic values in transition states. The implied shifts of power and the intense contestation associated with a subsidiary principle like SAI independence, in many ways, only help underline the more universal contestation that necessarily comes with the localization of new values as part of any socio-political transition process. 6. Challenges to democratization theory and practice revisited The case study presented above, even with all due caveats, firmly supports the article’s earlier conceptualization of causal mechanisms for democratization. Further research is certainly in order to gather more robust evidence, and one aim of this article is precisely to animate further studies on the causal mechanisms of democratization. And towards this end, three observations in support of this outline of democratization’s mechanisms are 35 forwarded here. First, the contestation of values in politics is a pivotal aspect of democratization processes. Democratization can be understood as the localization of a distinct set of values into institutional norms. Any localization of values thereby changes established power structures and will inevitably be contested. Though alternate mechanisms such as coercion, persuasion or emulation may be relevant at the analytical level of individuals, the contestation to any agent’s advocacy of values is still the outcome on a systemic level. The Liberian case shows how even subsidiary values and practices of democratic governance run up against the established power-relationships within a given polity. Successful democratization therefore depends on the outcome of value-infused contestations over power; or “politics” in the definition of Sangmpam (2007). In turn, political contestation thus affirms a specific value’s meaning-in-use as a localized norm. Democratization processes can accordingly be conceived as aggregate of successful localizations of democratic values through political contestations. Second, ‘political will’, in the sense of an agents identification with democratization as an intrinsic goal in itself, is irrelevant to an agencydriven conception of democratization. The focus on political contestation as principal mechanism of democratization makes agency a central element for transforming values into norms-in use. Broad and general value systems, by comparison, hold little normative influence by themselves. To be localized in a transition state, values need to be championed in a definite meaning-inuse and in a specific time and place. Agency therefore is the pivotal link 36 between a more general value system and the particular norm; between the timeless principle and the temporal application of any value (see Scott, 2001). The motivations of agents, whether altruistic or self-serving, are nevertheless secondary as a successful localization of values through politics does not depend on them. Third, democratization is not only an agency-driven, but also evolutionary process of incremental norm-accumulation. Even as popular upheavals against autocracy, as recently in Tunisia and Egypt, can provide precious opportunities for countries to move out of political stagnation, it would be imprudent to assume that popular protests and regime change in countries ruled by autocrats for many decades could miraculously culminate into a liberal democracy fully formed. Democratization does not occur in a uniform, sudden and aggregate shift of values. Democracy is only embedded in the political structures, practices and institutions of a polity to the extent that individual democratic values are localized within a very specific meaning-in-use relating to a definite domestic issues and context. As a consequence, the shape of a state and its institutions at a given time are thus a representation of past contestations which have shaped the exercise of power and authority, the collective understandings of reasonable behaviour, and the dominant interpretations of formal and written rules. And even as political contestations may localize international democratic norms, is the subsequent polity modelled according to an idealized blueprint of democracy. Finally, the both leading and concluding question of this article is what insights these case study observations offer for the three challenges to 37 democracy promotion introduced earlier? Autocracy-promotion: Observations from the Liberian case study on politics as the locus of democratization processes contribute to this particular discussion in two ways. Both recommend a more explicit emphasis on domestic politics within transition states, rather than global political shifts, for future democratization research. First, competing value systems are given a different relative weight in the political contestations of transition states then in a more global perspective. A fair amount of contemporary democratization literature abstracts too readily from domestic politics to study democratization through global structural determinants instead. Nearly 20 years after Fukuyama’s end of history hypotheses (1992), research on autocratic challenges to democratization still retains a tendency to measure the credibility of any ideological alternatives by the yardstick of the Cold War’s socialism; i.e. its global proliferation and its comprehensiveness as blueprint for an entire societal system (Ottaway, 2010). This is misleading, because values are localized into norms through domestic political contestation, and because these contestations arise over a given value’s specific meaning-in-use. Consequently, the credibility of any ‘autocratic challenge’ needs to be judged by its domestic clout for challenging democratization in the specific issues that are contested. Here, literature on policy diffusion takes note of the considerable variations in the spread of more definite principles and policies associated with the spread of markets and democracy across the world precisely because of their varying appeal to specific actors and situations (Simmons, Dobbin, & Garrett, 2008). If more 38 authoritarian values are indeed imported and localized by political agents in transition politics, they too will follow likely a diverse pattern of norm diffusing for the same reasons. Second, the simple reference to a unique development trajectory of a ‘successful autocracy’, a role for example frequently attributed to China, may in itself be a relevant challenge to democratization if it empowers domestic alternatives in politics. Rather than adopting a particular autocratic model of governance, say a Chinese or Russian ‘model’, already the ability to challenge universalistic notions of democracy as an inevitable complement to economic development and societal progress is in itself a relevant factor in transition politics. It makes a powerful “discursive weapon” (Blyth, 2007) to be used by factions or individuals in value-based political contests, including in opposition of those promoting democratization. The inference for future research than is to pursue this differential between a value system’s global remit and its domestic impact in shaping specific political discourses. If the exploratory observations made here hold, the “attraction” of either democracy or autocratic models of governance need not correlate with any structural factors – say the amount of FDI or the depth of trade relations – as is often the argument made by citing Chinese investments in African countries (Alden, 2007). Instead, their impact on transition states will need to be assessed by the use that domestic agents make of them. Ambivalent effects of democracy promotion: Carothers notes that 39 “Backlash against democracy aid often starts with the accusation that the outside actors have a partisan agenda.” (2010, p. 69). Beyond the obstruction of international efforts, analysis of democratization mechanisms suggests to consider these as political narratives in transition countries as much as positions in foreign relations. In this view, “anti-assistance”, as described by Burnell (2006), can discredit democratic values in domestic political contestations. To the extent that political agents champion values for more immediate, tangible political, their success depends on the political credibility of the values they choose to adopt. If efforts to promote democracy are widely perceived in a critical, even negative light, fewer political agents will rely on them to make their case and fewer of those who do succeed. Consequently, if the promotion of democracy is perceived (or framed) as an intrusion upon national sovereignty and a guise for hidden agendas, the credibility of democratic values as discursive weapons in politics is diminished. Carothers (2010) vividly describes the paradigmatic case of Russia and its periphery where, in no small part by Putin himself, democracy promotion efforts were framed to pursue malign and divisive agendas. Building one’s case on foreign norms and values before such a narrative ceases to be a viable political strategy. Thus, the ‘ownership’ of reform, in the parlance of democracy promotion, among its key agents for democratic values falters if they can be sidelined in politics as straw men for inscrutable foreign interests: Conversely, the recognition of the pivotal role of political agents in localizing democratic values, without an instrumental view of ‘political will’, highlights the need to emphasise the credibility of democratic values in the specific contestation 40 of politics transition states. This means, that the advocacy of a certain norms-in-use is always intrinsically a political position, even if it may not appear as such from the vantage points of foreign experts. Yet, it is precisely this political aspect of norm localization that is neglected, or purposefully downplayed by aid agencies whose mandate and self-perception is build around their work, including democratization and good governance reforms, as politically unbiased promotion of technocratic principles. Foreigners should not become involved in politics of transition countries for obvious reasons, not least because the details of domestic politics are likely inscrutable to outsiders. Nevertheless, explicit recognition of the political nature of value localization should help sensitize democracy promotion for the political dynamics that agents for democratization are exposed to. Drawing perhaps some insights from the literature on policy diffusion among western states, further democratization research would be well placed to explore questions of which democratic principles are attractive to domestic agents and readily adapted over principles which could be perceived as invasive, confrontational and at risk of causing a backlash of ‘anti-democratization’ politics. If the observations in this article are any guide, further insights on the elusive ‘ownership’ of reforms would be the gain. Not because agents are better persuaded to democratization’s broader benefits, but because the broader benefits of democracy are more readily achieved if the motives of the key agents of change become better understood, giving democracy more leverage in transition politics. Illiberal democracies and hybrid regimes: The most pertinent insight 41 offered by the Liberia case study speaks to the multifinality of transition processes. As incremental accumulations of localized norms-in-use, the evolutionary processes of transition are far from unilinear and open to any number of different outcomes, including politically stable hybrid regimes. The dispute cited in the Liberian case was resolved by the LSC in favour of SAI independence with explicit reference to independent government oversight as an important global principle of democratic governance. An alternate outcome would have likely weakened Liberia’s GAC, placing it more firmly under informal authority of the Senate in contradiction of a formally independent SAI. Nevertheless, Liberia’s open-ended transition process moves on whether Liberia’s GAC lives up to international standards or adheres more to the logic of informal power across formal government bodies. The dispute, rather than the final outcome, thus highlights that globally accepted standards and principles depend on being localized through political disputes over how these principles need to be applied in a specific context. Thus, if a transition process is an incremental accumulation of localized norms-in-use, it is necessarily a multi-final process as every value-based contestation may end with any number of different outcomes: favouring democratic principles, a more autocratic logic, or compromises which span different value-systems in novel ways. Hybrid regimes are consequently organic outcomes of such transition processes. Indeed, Hybrid regimes must be the expected outcome in transition countries where multiple values systems exercise sufficient credibility among political actors. As a consequence therefore, an analytical perspective which gives more explicit emphasis to the unique pathways of transition that hybrid regimes 42 travel upon, as already indicated by the study Hadonius & Teorell (2007), rather than to the final desired state these states may or may not be heading towards, would consequently allow for future democratization research to build insight on the complex processes of regime transformation. These insights, in turn, would help sensitize actual interventions to promote democracy in transition countries to the necessarily unique transition trajectory of a given policy. And it would do so through a conceptual understanding of democratization mechanisms which drive a multitude of outcomes, rather than an ever more minute list of democracy “with adjectives” (Collier & Levitsky, 1996) that tries to square the potentially infinite variety of observed transition outcomes with an always imperfectly defined ideal of democracy as hoped-for final result. 7. Conclusion Contemporary democratization literature emphasizes structural change at the expense of agency in transition politics. By abstracting from value-infused contestations, which inevitably follows the localization of new values, democratization theory struggles to account for political factors in transition processes. These notably are the attraction of alternative, often authoritarian models to specific political issues, the potential backlashes and ambivalent effects of democracy promotion efforts, and the nature of hybrid regimes rooted in the compromises and contradictory political outcomes that are intrinsic to the causal mechanisms that localize values into norms-in-use and institutions. By focussing on the agency-driven mechanisms of democratization, rather 43 than on the causes, on the conditions, or on the origins of particular values and principles, this article reflected on these challenges to democratization theory, which are all frequently cited in the studies aiming to understand the four-year long roll-back of democratic practices and values identified by Freedom House (2010). By locating the causal mechanisms in the political contestations of politics, three notable insights were revealed. First, democratic values and principles are localized into norms-in-use through agency in specific disputes over meaning and power. Rather than contrasting the appeal of broad and comprehensive value-systems, proponents of democratization need to be more conscious of the relative merit of promoted values in specific circumstances. Second, agents making use of democratic values in transition politics are not necessarily driven by an intrinsic, selfless political will to promote democracy for its own sake. More probable, they pursue more definite, personal goals. In doing so, they draw on valuebased arguments as instrumental means towards these ends, rather than as ends in themselves as implied by concepts of ‘political will’. Accounting for the comparative and instrumental domestic credibility of democratic principles would therefore go a long way towards sensitizing democracy promotion to the political dynamics that drive value localization, including the potential for backlashes against democracy promotion and the construction of counter-arguments that challenge democratization. Moreover, perceiving democratization as an incremental accumulation of localized norms-in-use also challenges the common concept of transition as a shift along a bipolar scale from autocracy to democracy. Transition processes are more multi-dimensional. The shaping of institutions through 44 political outcomes creates unique transition trajectories with a variety of outcomes, including hybrid forms of governments that institutionalize political compromises and a bricolage of different value systems into governance. 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