An Examination of the North Coast Workforce for College of the Redwoods’ Education Master Plan by Ahn Fielding November, 2008 A SHIFT IN THE HUMBOLDT COUNTY ECONOMY (from the North Coast Prosperity Network) Over the last 40 years, Humboldt County has experienced a dramatic restructuring and diversification of its economy. A diversified local economy is desirable because it is more stable. In an effort to evaluate current programs and training to meet today’s economy AND the job demand for the future, CR is looking to the TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY regional workforce study. The TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY report looks at job opportunity in business and industry with career and growth potential. This was a regional data research project consisting of Humboldt, Del Norte, Trinity, Mendocino, & Siskiyou counties. See Appendix A for the data relevance of Humboldt County compared to the region. The project was funded by Federal and State workforce development grants. The targets were identified by using employment data from the California Employment Development Department (Labor Market Information Division), combined with information about firms from a proprietary database (the National Establishments Time Series or NETS database). Six targets of opportunity were identified (see Appendix A for a detailed description). They are: • Diversified Health Care • Building and Systems Construction and Maintenance • Specialty Agriculture, Food, and Beverages • Investment Support Services • Management and Innovation Services • Niche Manufacturing WHY FOCUS ON THE TARGETS? The Targets of Opportunity report focused on the highest growth sectors in terms of jobs, firms, and wages since 1990. They have been identified as the region’s most promising areas for economic and workforce development. Each target of opportunity includes elements that are export-oriented, population-driven, and offer career potential for local residents. In the region’s private sector over the last 15 years, the target industries combined contributed: o 39% of the jobs o 53% of the wages Compared to the region, growth in the occupations within the Targets demonstrated: o Job Growth: 37% in Targets vs. 4% in region o Firm Growth: 23% in Targets vs. 1.5% in region o Wage Growth: 10-26% in Targets vs. 6% in region Growth in Targets 50% 40% 30% % of Growth 20% 10% 0% Targets Region Job Growth Firm Growth Wage Growth Each target demonstrates a combination of the following “quality factors:” 1) expanding opportunity (job and/or firm growth) 2) growth quality (e.g., wage increases) 3) improving competitiveness (strong and/or growing specialization compared to California as a whole) 4) career potential (distribution of job opportunities across the occupational spectrum) 5) key linkages (important relationships and common needs with other sectors) See Appendix B for a more detailed breakdown of the quality factors. SIX “PLUS ONE” In addition to the six Targets, CR should not ignore the important occupation resource in the public sector, specifically government and education career opportunities. In 2006: - The Government sector provided: 15% of the county payroll, equating to $177 million to the Humboldt County economy. - The Education & Research sector (including higher education) provided 8% of the county payroll, equating to $115 million to the Humboldt County economy. - The Education sector (K-12) provided 7% of the county payroll, equating to $112 million to the Humboldt County Economy. Public sector training is certainly relevant to the economy and warrants further discussion and examination of CR’s programs meeting the workforce challenges. OTHER REAL EMPLOYMENT SECTORS Even though the Targets research identifies specific job clusters for career potential, this does not mean there is not job opportunity in other employment sectors. For example, - In 2006, 11% of the Humboldt County payroll was in forestry & logging. This industry anticipates a real need for a trained workforce to replace a retiring generation of workers. CR should not ignore this training need. - PG&E is looking to replace 42,000 retiring employees within the next six years. The reason these employment sectors are not highlighted in the targets report is because they exhibit unsteady, volatile growth or decline, potentially adversely affecting the region’s economy. Nonetheless, they still play a vital role in Humboldt County’s economy and vitality. WORKFORCE EVALUATION SUMMARY Appendix C is an evaluation of CR’s current programs and degrees compared to the occupations identified in the targets of opportunity. This is a framework to help CR examine how its existing programs are meeting the workforce needs. More specifically, it is being provided to help: - determine if existing programs need adjustment to better meet workforce demand o e.g., add commercial wiring training to existing residential wiring certificate o e.g., develop Management certificate to add to existing degrees - identify the absence of CR programs with high growth, high demand career potential - evaluate the applicability of current programs in a workforce training model Appendix D is the target occupations sorted by recurring occupation themes to further assess “CR’s Targets.” Some key findings in the Target cross-study are: - Office skills are present across all six targets and vary in wage level, depending on the technical skills required, and/or presence of management/supervision experience - Accountants and Auditors are identified across all six targets and all are categorized as high wage jobs - Computer & Support Specialists are identified across all six targets and all are categorized as mid-wage jobs - Bookkeeping, Accounting & Auditing Clerks are identified across five of six targets and are all categorized as mid-wage jobs - All six targets have need for managers and supervisors (business, administrative support, front-line, etc.). Many of CR’s programs meet the occupation needs, minus the manager training. Appendix A Regional Targets Employment Percentages Compared to Humboldt County The following chart from the Targets report shows the breakdown of the proportion of targets employment by North Coast county. As the chart indicates, Humboldt County is close to the region’s percentages for employment, with the exception of a reduced workforce in Specialty Agriculture, Food & Beverages. Key: Diversified Health Care - a wide range of health care options and support sectors o includes all the support services associated with the functioning of these businesses, such as food service, childcare, bookkeeping, and office support Building and Systems Construction and Maintenance - sectors which focus on physical infrastructure of communities Specialty Agriculture, Food & Beverages - sectors focusing on distinctive North Coast products, rather than bulk commodities that could be grown or produced in many other regions o these products include cheeses, wine and beer, and flowers Investment Support Services - professional advisory services that help people and businesses evaluate and execute investment decisions Management & Innovation Services - professional assistance focused on helping other businesses develop and implement product and process innovations o one example would be The Stream Guys based in Trinidad who do large-scale audio streaming for businesses such as NPR Niche Manufacturing - specialized producers spreading across more than 20 industry classifications, where no individual sector employs more than a few hundred people. - professional assistance focused on helping other businesses develop and implement product and process innovations o examples would be Holly Yashi and Fire and Light Appendix B Detailed Description of Quality Factors Criteria Expanding Opportunity Growing Quality Improving Competitiveness Career Potential Key Linkages Interpretation Job Growth Shows how various industries have weathered market forces and their subsequent employment generation Firm Growth Growth in firms can indicate a change in organizational of an industry, a surge in local entrepreneurship, or attraction of outside investment to the region Job Quality, i.e. wage increases High average payroll per employee relative to the regional average indicates a sector with relatively high productivity per employee. Additionally, pay is a reflection of job quality and indicates the amount of training and skill required to perform the job. Strong and/or Growing Regional Specialization A concentration of greater than 1 indicates that employment in the region is more specialized in the industry compared with U.S. or California. Specialization generally reflects competitiveness and outward orientation. Occupational Distribution and Dynamics Occupational opportunities spread across higher, mid and lower-levels, suggesting possible pathways for upward mobility. Occupations that are highly-concentrated and/or fast-growing are of particular interest. Important Relationships and Common Needs Related to other sectors in important buyersupplier or complementary partnering relationships. Share a common workforce, markets or others.