INDIA’S POSSIBLE ROLE IN THE
GLOBAL CHALLENGE OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
Ruth Kattumuri, Nick Stern,
James Rydge, Diya Bhatnagar
The CO2 emissions map
Note: Map reflects the relative emissions from fossil fuel consumption in 20th century.
GDP growth rate 5 years
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
GDP growth rate 5 years
2005-06
2000-01
1995-96
1990-91
1985-86
1980-81
1975-76
1970-71
1965-66
1960-61
1955-56
2.0
Poly. (GDP growth rate 5 years)
GDP in India has grown at more than 5% since the mid-1980s.
Since 2005-06, the Indian economy grew at more than 9%
CO2 emissions per capita 1950-2005: India and World
(tCO2/cap.)
5
tCO2 per person
4
3
2
1
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
India
World
Carbon intensity of the economy 1980-2005: India and World
(tCO2/toe)
3.0
2.5
tCO2/toe
World -0.1%
2.0
Avge annual gth 1980-2005:
India 1.8%
1.5
1.0
1980
1985
1990
India
1995
World
2000
2005
GHG intensity of the economy: 1980-2005
(tCO2 per million 2005 int $)
800
tCO2 per million 2005 int $
World -1.9%
Avge annual gth 1980-2005:
700
India -0.1%
600
500
400
1980
1990
1985
India
1995
World
2000
2005
Estimates of India’s per capita GHG emissions to 2031
Global emissions per capita 2005
Note: Model assumptions and GHGs differ between the illustrative scenarios (e.g., only McKinsey estimate CH 4).
Source: India’s GHG emissions profile: Results of five climate modelling studies, Climate modelling forum, India, 2009.
Possible Impacts of Climate
Change on India
India is extremely vulnerable to climate change
Water security:
• Rapid retreat of Himalayan glaciers and snow
• Intense monsoons: number of extreme rainfall events likely to increase; flooding
• Rising sea-levels threaten coastal populations
• Dry rivers in dry seasons and loss of water from run-offs
• Water scarcity in the long run caused by reduced inflows in river system
• Severity of droughts and floods likely to increase; torrents in rainy season, dry rivers
in dry season
Food security: predominantly monsoon dependent and rain-fed agriculture; failing crop
yields
Human Health: higher risk of diseases, morbidity and mortality
Forests and natural ecosystems: loss of biodiversity; extensive damage to coral
Regional security:
• Cross-border migration due to events induced by climate change
• Likely tensions over water sharing with its neighbours in the north, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Nepal and China
• Possible tensions over sea-level rises and changing coast lines in the south
Rate of Glacier Retreat in the
Himalaya
Source: Reducing Disaster Risk, A Challenge for Development, 2004, UNDP
Increase in Population and Agricultural Water Use in Asia
Population and agriculture water use
2500
1400
PROGNOSIS
1200
1000
Water use: S Asia
1500
800
Pop: S Asia
600
1000
Pop: SE Asia
500
400
Water use: SE Asia
200
0
0
1900
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
1995
2000
2010
2025
Agriculture water use
3
(Km /year)
Population (million)
2000
Private Sector initiatives - I
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TATA Sons:
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Tata Quality Management Services (TQMS), a centrally administered organisation, organises
climate change initiatives.
Policies on energy efficiencies, green buildings, green data centres and green protocols will
be developed.
Awareness will be created amongst all stakeholders.
Individual Tata companies will measure their current carbon footprint to assess where the
group stands.
Infosys:
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Water Sustainability: Rainwater is harvested across the Infosys campuses, and all sewage
treatment plant water is used for irrigation.
Bicycle Sharing: All Infosys campuses have cycles on campus to be used by all employees.
No personal vehicles or motorbikes are allowed on campus.
Solar Water Heating: Across Infosys campuses, Infosys is one of India's largest solar water
heater installed capacity. In Bangalore, water in the hostel is heated by solar.
Car - Sharing: Individuals can stand by signs with a particular neighbourhood marked, and
those driving back to that neighbourhood pick up fellow Infoscions.
Corporate Buses: Infosys teams have optimized the bus routes so as to carry transport full
capacity buses back to different neighbourhoods in Bangalore. Teams of IT professionals are
designing software to put preference for employees travelling at non-peak times to minimize
their time on the roads and to minimize fuel burned while idling.
Private Sector initiatives - II
• Suzlon:
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India’s largest and the world’s third leading wind turbine maker; installed over 5,000 MW of
cumulative wind turbines in India, accounting for nearly half of the country’s total wind
installations.
The cumulative wind generated power has the potential to light up four million homes
annually, providing for over 1,500 customers in India across 40 sites in eight states.
Leading companies including the Bajaj Group, Birla Group and the Reliance Group, and the
Indian Railways have chosen Suzlon for their wind power projects.
Power from the installed wind turbines have also helped reduced about 8.5 million tonnes of
harmful carbon emissions each year.
• Selco:
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Successful solar energy services company that sells small-scale photovoltaic systems.
Headquartered in Bangalore, SELCO has 23 branch offices in southern India.
Has sold, financed and serviced solar power units to 100,000 homes in India through
microfinance and other models.
Created a market for solar-powered rechargeable batteries.
The company is also working on cleaner versions of cookstoves, solar-powered water pumps
and wireless communication.
• TERI:
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‘Light a Billion Lives’ Campaign: The Campaign aims to bring light into the lives of one billion
rural people by replacing the kerosene and paraffin lanterns with solar lighting devices.
This will facilitate education of children; provide better illumination and kerosene-smoke-free
indoor environment for women to do household chores; and provide opportunities for
livelihoods both at the individual level and at village level.
Private Sector initiatives - III
HSBC-India has climate change initiatives
An global HSBC study of climate confidence index (2007) reported
that climate change ranked second biggest world issue in India.
DEVELOPMENTS IN POLICY
•
Indira Gandhi, only PM to attend 1972 UN Conference on Climate Change
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Set up the Ministry of Environment at the Centre; initiated project Tiger in 1972; instrumental
in enactment of the Wildlife Protection Act and the Forest Conservation Act.
•
June 2007 - pledge by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that India’s per capita
emissions would never exceed that of the developed world (G8+5 Summit,
Heiligendamm, Germany)
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June 2008 - National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) launched
•
July 2009 - Singh signed MEF Leaders Declaration that recognised that global
temperature rise ‘ought not to exceed 2 degrees C’ and the need for a ‘global
goal’ to reduce ‘global emissions by 2050’ (MEF and G8 Summit, L’Aquila, Italy)
•
December 2009 - declaration in Parliament by Environment Minister Jairam
Ramesh that India would voluntarily (not subject to international verification)
reduce the ‘emissions intensity’ of its GDP by a fifth from 2005 by 2020
compared to 2005 levels (Lok Sabha, New Delhi)
•
January 2010 - Expert Group set up by Planning Commission to develop a
Low-C Economy strategy for the 12th Five Year Plan
•
December 2010 - Ramesh suggested that ‘all countries must take binding
commitments under an appropriate legal form’ (UNFCCC CoP-16, Cancun,
Mexico)
India’s progressive role in Cancun
Many of India's contributions had been incorporated in the text,
including the International Consultation and Analysis, which is a
transparency mechanism to review whether developing countries
are carrying out their domestic mitigation actions.
Minister for Environment, Jairam Ramesh:
– Praised for building bridges during the UNFCC, Cancun, 2010
– "We have a Cancun agreement," he said, noting that the BASIC
countries were "very happy" with the text.
– Mohamed Aslam, Environment minister of Maldives, “He
(Ramesh) has been reaching out to the AOSIS (Alliance of Small
Island States) nations as well as developed countries”
National Action Plan on Climate Change
The NAPCC of the Government of India published in 2008 has identified 8 core
missions running through to 2017.
1.
National Solar Mission:
•
2.
National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency:
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3.
To enhance ecosystem services, maintain an ecological balance and biodiversity with added targets of
afforestation of 6 million hectares and expansion of forest cover by 33%.
National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture:
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8.
Conservation of biodiversity, forest cover and other ecological values.
National Mission for Green India:
•
7.
Ensuring water resource management through a National Water Policy; improve water-use efficiency by 20%
through pricing.
National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem:
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6.
To promote energy efficiency as an integral component of urban planning and renewal.
National Water Mission:
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5.
Current initiatives expected to yield savings of 10,000 MW by 2012.
National Mission on Sustainable Habitat:
•
4.
To promote the development and use of solar energy towards power generation. This will promote research and
development with international co-operation, enabling the creation of more affordable solar systems.
Climate adaptation in agriculture through the development of climate-resilient crops and expansion of weather
insurance mechanisms.
National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change:
•
Funding high quality and focussed research in order to gain a better understanding of climate change, its impacts
and challenges.
Climate Change Action Plans by States consistent with
National Action Plans
“I seek your co-operation in making a success of the eight National Missions that are key
Components of our National Action Plan on climate change”- PM Manmohan Singh, 2009
•
June, 2010: Only six states submitted State-Level action plans; New Delhi, Himachal
Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Karnataka, Chandigarh and Haryana
•
New Delhi (2009):
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65-point three-year agenda to fight climate change
Encouraging use of solar power, increase in use of energy-saving lighting, setting up of an
electronic waste facility, more CNG buses and promoting the use of bio-fuel.
It also plans to encourage reuse of construction waste, increase green cover from 290
square km to 500 square km by 2012 by developing more city forests and parks, restore
water bodies and reuse waste water.
Karnataka (2009):
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The Bangalore Climate Change Initiative – Karnataka (BCCI-K)
State-Level action plan to protect farmers and fishermen from the adverse impact of climate
change.
Promotes energy efficiency programmes and renewable energy.
Establishment of a Climate change hub in Bangalore to study agro-climatic regions, transition
zones and dry zones to assess climate change.
Seeks funding and technologies from national and international sources.
Gujarat (2010)
– Creation of a special department on Climate Change
– Focus of the total plan will be considerable cut in carbon
emission and earning more carbon credit
– The separate rules and regulations on the usage of old vehicles
in corporation area, new permissible limit of carbon emission by
the industry will also be announced.
– A tree planting drive, 5.5 crore trees will be planted in seven
municipal corporation areas
– The state government has planned to invest Rs 3,600 crore in
the next few years for its climate change initiatives.
– Setting up of India's first "Gujarat climate change university'' and
"R&D revolving fund for new green technology" will also be
carried out in the next few years.
Some Issues:
• Corruption in Electricity sector (Gulati 2006). Problems of
State Electricity Boards.
• Transmission and distribution losses in the Power Sector
are estimated to be about 50%, out of which about 30%
is attributed to theft in connivance with the Electricity
Boards employees (Address to the India CEO Forum,
organised by International Market Assessment India Pvt.
Ltd.).
• Clean energy development and deployment in India has
shown how information asymmetry, limited regulatory
and public oversight and the calculation and rolling out of
incentives and subsidies can cloud decision-making in
the sector (WRI 2010).
POTENTIAL ACTIONS THAT CAN BE
TAKEN BY INDIA & OFFER LEADERSHIP
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Low-Carbon Growth
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Moderating growth in emissions
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India’s step towards reduction of energy costs and dependence on hydrocarbons; show
examples to other countries.
Pledge to keep per capita emissions below world average implies India will go further than the
measures already identified
Developing platforms for emission trading
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Only form of sustained growth for India
High carbon growth suffers from various shortcomings: high prices of hydrocarbons; creation
of a destructive physical environment
Deliver access to energy, transport, and housing to the entire population
Realistic goals if rich countries can provide the level of technical and financial assistance
implied by the G8 Heiligendamm agreement of 2007 and 2008
India can offer entrepreneurial advice, financial and technical expertise, and diversity to bring
forward innovation.
Programmes for carbon-finance investment; bringing clean coal technologies to large power
projects
Programmes to increase energy efficiency in major carbon intensive industries in India
Programmes based on micro-finance and other innovative financial instruments, promoting
low-carbon development opportunities for poorer communities
Reducing deforestation and restoring degraded land
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Maintaining a vibrant biodiversity
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Energy Efficiency and Innovation
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Promote cleaner technologies including solar, biogas, hydroelectric, halting deforestation,
carbon capture and storage (CCS)
An example of the utilization of Solar Energy:
– India is blessed with solar energy
– A recent infrastructure advisory report from Crisil, a ratings and research agency, estimated
India's solar potential to be five trillion kilowatt-hours per year.
– Renewable resources contribute about 11 per cent to India's electricity generation; of that,
solar energy comprises merely 0.01 per cent or about 18 megawatts per year.
– A gigawatt of energy can power nearly a million homes.
– Under the US$19 billion National Solar Mission, launched in 2010, India hopes to generate
1,000 megawatts of solar power annually by 2013, and as much as 20 gigawatts by 2022.
– The National Solar Mission: The government's encouragement of solar power plants,
subsidies and incentive, have tempted many companies into the solar energy field.
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India’s highly developed skills in science and technology
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Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
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Major asset towards international collaboration; developing low-carbon technologies
Natural resource base (sun, wind and gas) offer opportunities to develop the potential of
solar power and second generation bio-fuel crops
India has benefitted from investment through private sector funds
Around 1/3rd of the projects registered by the CDM executive board are from India
Projects registered by the Indian National CDM Authority have facilitated investment more
than $26.558 Million
Private sector financial flows
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Financial flows from the global carbon markets
Technology sharing