DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE 5492, Hutchison | Montréal Québec | Canada H2V 4B3 téléphone 514 779 7445 | courriel dunsky@vif.com Getting Results: Review of HQ’s 2005-10 DSM Plan Philippe Dunsky Eric Belliveau John Plunkett Presentation to Régie de l’énergie March 16, 2005 Proposals Overriding Considerations Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others Errata & Changes ! Benchmarking exercise: Results update Change to Rec.#74 ! Novoclimat New Jersey also focuses on builders Social housing: City of Montréal incentive Repeal Rec.#24 ! 80+ Power Supplies Positive news since report Likely scenario #3: 0.00005¢/kWh (+1yr@3¢) ! Municipal leasing More options than just leasing companies Change to Rec.#66: broaden to innovative financing approaches DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE énergie | environnement | économie 1 Proposals Overriding Considerations Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others Guiding Questions Q1: Can the Régie expect HQ’s plan to yield maximum returns? Q2: If not, what modifications should Hydro-Québec be directed to make? Proposals Overriding Considerations Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others Fundamentals ! Balance multiple goals Primary focus on economic efficiency. Consideration for distributional equity. ! Barriers matter Overcoming market barriers is the central objective of efficiency programs ! Program design matters Real-world EE performance depends on the right combination of strategies to overcome barriers DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE énergie | environnement | économie 2 Proposals Overriding Considerations Proposals Residential CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others Barriers Matter 15 Unrealized Economic Potential ! Without market barriers, all consumers would adopt all cost-effective EE practices ! The objective of EE programs is to overcome these barriers Efficiency gains (TWh/yr) 10 (=waste (due to market barriers) 5 PGEÉ d’HQ 0 Natural EE gains 5 Proposals Overriding Considerations Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others Many Barriers, Many Players ! Many barriers Information / search costs Performance uncertainty Asymmetry / opportunism Hassle / transaction costs Hidden costs or benefits Bounded rationality Organization practice/customs Misplaced / split incentives Product/service unavailability Product inseparability Decision irreversibility ! Many players Architects Builders Building managers Building owners Building occupants Contractors Dealers Designers Engineers Home owners Renters Lenders Project Developers Real estate agents Retail store managers DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE énergie | environnement | économie 3 Overriding Considerations Proposals Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others 25 Years of Lessons ! Budget ≠ Performance $1 can provide 10 kWh or 100 kWh EE is excellent opportunity if done right ! Lessons > Know your barriers > Learn from others’ mistakes and successes > Work upstream (and regionally) when possible > Think like a business > Focus on the prize: “maximize acquisition of cost-effective energy resources” Overriding Considerations Proposals Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others Overall Assessment Plan Level: real improvement over 2003-06 Plan " Captures more opportunities New MC/ES includes key CFL, washer measures " Adds valuable new tools New CI Prescriptive program = key addition " Provides more appropriate incentives, resources Higher “Initiatives” incentives Program Level: much refinement needed ! Market barriers Program design not always built to overcome barriers ! Neglected markets Small CI customers will be left out ! Incentive structures “Initiatives” structure (¢/kWh) ≠ HQ’s stated goal (“% incr. cost”) ! Other key design issues MC/ES efforts insufficient (won’t capture opportunities) Best practice strategies not always followed Additional opportunities / strategy improvements DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE énergie | environnement | économie 4 Proposals Overriding Considerations Proposals Residential Impacts CI & SMI DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others Relative Effort ! Peer Comparisons Not “Top 15” Rather: 15 peers # Same trading region • Also = high heating loads # Large hydropower share • Also = similar rates # + leader Primary Measure: $/MWh sales Difference with HQ results # Proposals C-B MB ON NY RI Proposals Residential Impacts CI & SMI DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others Relative Effort ($/MWh) 0,16 $ 0,27 $ 0,30 $ 0,47 $ 0,50 $ ! 0,63 $ ! Progression from last to 11th of 16 Still very low on scale # 0,81 $ # 1,22 $ # 1,32 $ 1,39 $ ! In bottom third 40% less than Canadian peers 80% less than leader (CA) Considerable room for more 1,44 $ 1,81 $ 2,79 $ 3,31 $ CT 3,47 $ VT 3,69 $ 4,16 $ CA $/MWh MT QC (v.'04) NH WA OR ME ID QC (v.'03) Overriding Considerations MA More recent data DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE énergie | environnement | économie 5 Proposals Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others Relative Effort (%) 0,25% 0,28% 0,45% NH QC (v.'03) ME Overriding Considerations ID 0,52% OR 0,78% WA 0,94% QC (v.'04) NY 1,28% 1,38% ON 1,73% MT 1,96% C.-B. RI 2,21% 2,44% MA 2,81% VT 2,90% CT 2,94% MB 3,44% CA 3,54% Overriding considerations Proposals Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others Residential ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Diagnostic Novoclimat EnerGuide for Houses Low-Income SHQ Affordable Housing MC/ES Super-e Heat Pumps DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE énergie | environnement | économie 6 Overriding considerations Proposals Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others Diagnostic Tool ! ! Useful “backbone” Restructure it as such Seamless links to programs Also to more info, calculators, etc. Ex: EnerGuide for Homes, Novoclimat, others ! Keep up to date Technology changes quickly Can harm credibility ~20,000 customers per month Overriding considerations 50% Proposals Residential Proposals CI & SMI DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE NovoClimat HQ PGEÉ Vt ES Homes TXU ES Homes 40% Market Share Impacts Budget, Others NJ ES Homes 30% 20% 10% 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE énergie | environnement | économie 2008 2009 2010 7 Proposals Overriding considerations Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others NovoClimat Insufficient goals Single biggest difference: ! ! HQ: Demand focus (market pull) Others: Supply focus (market push) Rec.#12: shift incentives ! Hydro-Québec ($2750 avg.): # $2150 to buyers (cash) # $600 to builders (cash) • $500 standard, $750 first, $1000 “Select” Us ($2750 avg.): # $1000 to buyers (efficient appliances) # $1750 to builders (cash) • $1500 standard, $2150 first, $3000 “Select” Overriding considerations ! Also: aggressive co-marketing, use EnerGuide ! Proven strategy = $ savings, $ participants, % ¢/kWh Proposals Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others EnerGuide for Homes ! ! Excellent piggybacking measure Opportunities for fine-tuning Pilot project for lower ‘A’ audit cost barrier (rec.#31) Target high-use customers (rec.#33) Reconsider minimum contribution for poorest subset of low-income customers (rec.#35) DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE énergie | environnement | économie 8 Overriding considerations Proposals Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others Low-Income Direct Install ! ! Standard LI program Opportunity for fine-tuning Eliminate measure disincentive by reworking payment structure (rec.#36) Improve consultation with delivery agents (rec.#38) Overriding considerations Proposals Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others SHQ Affordable Housing ! ! ! Good program opportunity Too little known for assessment Points of caution: Integrate lighting opportunities Consider select appliance replacements Ensure design comprehensiveness DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE énergie | environnement | économie 9 Overriding considerations Proposals Proposals Residential Impacts CI & SMI DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others MC/ES: General ! ! Enormous, low-cost opportunity Underlying problem: HQ: “This is primarily an awareness program” ! MC/ES must be aggressive Upstream efforts (joint promos, spiffs, etc.) Rebates (for key techs) Market transformation ! Key triad: CFL lights | Washers | Windows Overriding considerations Proposals Proposals Residential Impacts CI & SMI DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others MC/ES – CFLs Low-cost CFLs ($2-4) High-cost CFLs ($5-10) 1,2 U.S. Northwest New Bulbs / Household / Year 1 U.S. Northeast 0,8 0,6 HQ PGEÉ 0,4 0,2 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE énergie | environnement | économie 2009 2010 10 Proposals Overriding considerations Residential Proposals Impacts CI & SMI DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others MC/ES – CFLs ! 1,2 Priority opportunity Huge savings (75%) Low cost (<2¢/kWh) B/C ratio: >4:1 New Bulbs / Household / Year 1 0,8 ! Need more aggressive strategy 0,6 Joint promotions (with manuf’s, retailers) Year-round rebates (rec.#44) Should double performance (bulbs/hh/yr) 0,4 0,2 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 Proposals Overriding considerations Residential 2003 2004 2005 Proposals CI & SMI 2006 2007 2008 Impacts 2009 2010 DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others MC/ES – Washers 60% B as eline ES mkt s hare HQ's P GEÉ ES mkt s hare R evis ed P GEE ES mkt s hare 40% 20% 0% 2003 2 00 4 2 0 05 2 00 6 2 00 7 * 2 0 08 DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE énergie | environnement | économie 20 0 9 20 10 11 Overriding considerations Proposals Proposals Residential CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others MC/ES – Washers ! Priority opportunity Huge savings (50-75%) Low cost (~3¢/kWh) B/C ratio: >2:1 ! Rec.#48: Reject HQ Implicit Target <1% net market share unacceptable Adopt 10% net market share by 2007 (new NW) ! Need more aggressive strategy Joint promos, Spiffs, Rebates (rec.#50) 2003 Overriding considerations 2004 2005 Proposals Residential 2006 Proposals CI & SMI 2007* 2008 Impacts 2009 2010 DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others MC/ES – Others ! Windows (rec.#51) Low cost (<1¢/kWh) B/C ratio: ~13:1 ! Efficient Computer Transformers Unique opportunity for continental collaboration Could deliver 300 GWh Cost next to nil (rare “free lunch”) Narrow window of opportunity (move fast) DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE énergie | environnement | économie 12 Proposals Overriding considerations Proposals Residential Impacts CI & SMI DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others Super-E Heat Pumps 4,0 3,5 Geothermal (ground) Heat Pump Cold-Climate (air) Heat Pump 2,5 2,0 1,5 Electric Heat (baseline) Coefficient of Performance (COP) 3,0 1,0 0,5 0,0 -34 -32 -29 -26 -23 -21 -18 -15 -12 -9 -7 -4 -1 2 4 7 10 13 16 Outdoor Temperature (celsius) Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others Super-E Heat Pumps ! 4,0 3,5 Geothermal Gold standard (COP 3+) Higher cost / Higher savings Ready to deliver Niche market opportunity ! -34 -32 -29 -26 -23 3,0 2,5 2,0 Cold-Climate Heat Pumps Made for Québec climate Silver standard (COP ~2.5) Low-cost / solid savings Full-scale within 2 years Enormous market opportunity -21 -18 -15 -12 -9 -7 -4 -1 1,5 Coefficient of Performance (COP) Proposals Overriding considerations 1,0 0,5 0,0 2 4 7 10 13 16 Outdoor Temperature (celsius) DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE énergie | environnement | économie 13 Proposals Overriding considerations Proposals Residential CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budget, Others Geothermal ! Roll-out slowly NW Territories Nunavut Yukon Newfoundland Prince Edward Is. Nova Scotia New Brunswick Québec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia # Rec.#55: Financing, not rebates (at outset) Focus on qualified supply Develop leasing strategy Follow Manitoba’s lead 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 CCHPs ! Launch pilot Work with manufacturer Aggressively enable commercialisation Overriding considerations Proposals Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budgets, Others CI & SMI Overview ! CI Buildings Initiatives > HQ’s Proposal > Incentive Design Problems > Recommended Solution > Note on municipal ! ! Small CI Customers SMI Process Initiatives DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE énergie | environnement | économie 14 Proposals Overriding considerations Impacts CI & SMI DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budgets, Others CI Buildings Initiatives 0,60 $ 0,55 $ ! 0,50 $ HQ “marginal” incentives ≠ “total” incentives EX (gov't) NC (gov't) EX (standard) NC (standard) Old Plan 0,45 $ 0,40 $ ¢ / ann.kWh Proposals Residential 0,35 $ 0,30 $ 0,25 $ 0,20 $ 0,15 $ 0,10 $ 0,05 $ 0,00 $ 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Electricity Savings Proposals Overriding considerations Residential CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budgets, Others CI Buildings Initiatives 0,60 $ 0,55 $ ! 0,50 $ ! 0,45 $ Critical Program Very diverse sector Efficiency costs vary tremendously between businesses, buildings Eg. Cost for CMNÉB+25% (Technosim): 0,40 $ ¢ / ann.kWh Proposals 0,35 $ # 0,30 $ # 0,25 $ 0,20 $ ! Fast food (McDonald’s): $0.16/kWh Small secondary school: $1.16¢/kWh Proposal problems % cost (goal) ≠ ¢/ann.kWh (mechanism) Likely results: 0,15 $ 0,10 $ # Missed 0,05 $ 0,00 $ 0% 10% opportunities # Wasted financial resources 20% 30% 40% Electricitylower Savings savings # Higher costs, DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE énergie | environnement | économie 50% 60% 15 Overriding considerations Proposals Proposals Residential Impacts CI & SMI DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budgets, Others Incentive for CMNÉB+25% High-volume Fast Food (E) 230% Small Food Retail (E) 206% Supermarket (E) 173% Low-volume Fast Food (E) 157% Family Restaurant (E) 118% Small Hotel/Motel (E) 70% Small Retail (E) 69% Dry Storage Warehouse (E) ! 67% Bars & Entertainment (E) 61% Dealerships (E) 56% Large Retail (E) 53% Small Offices (E) 51% Refrigerated Warehouse (E) 37% Shopping Centers (E) 32% Large Hotel (E) 32% Arenas (E) 52% Outdoor Recreation (E) 50% CHSLDs (E) 36% Small Universities (E) HQ’s fixed ¢/ann.kWh incentive covers radically different shares of incremental costs 33% Small Cegeps (E) 33% Indoor Recreation (E) 32% Cegeps (E) 29% Elementary School with Ventilation (E) 28% Small Secondary School (E) 28% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% Index of Actual v. Targeted Coverage of Incremental Cost Overriding considerations Proposals Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budgets, Others Incentive for CMNÉB+25% 125% HQ actual share of cost HQ target share of cost 75% 50% 25% 0% le S m en ma ll ta Se ry Sc co ho nd ar ol w yS ith c Ve hoo l nt ila (E) tio In do n C (E e or R gep ) e s (E Sm cre at ) Sm al l C ion al l U e g (E ) e ni ve ps ( E) rs O iti ut do CH es or S L (E ) R ec Ds re ( at E) io Ar n (E e ) La n S R rg as ef ho rig pp e H (E in er ot ) g at e ed Ce l (E W nte ) ar rs e Sm ho (E) al use lO ( La ffic E) es rg e (E Ba ) D Re r ta D s & ea il ry le (E E r St s n or ter hip ) ta ag s in (E e W me ) ar nt eh ( o u E) S Sm m al se l al ( l H Re E) F ta ot il Lo am el (E il / w ) -v y R Mo ol es tel um ta ( ur E) e Fa an t( st E S F Sm upe oo ) H rm d ( al ig lF har E) vo o o ke lu t m d R (E e ) Fa eta s t i l (E Fo ) od (E ) Share of Incremental Cost 100% DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE énergie | environnement | économie 16 Proposals Overriding considerations Proposals Residential Impacts CI & SMI DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budgets, Others CI Buildings Initiatives 80% 0,50 $ 0,40 $ 60% 50% HQ Incentive -- Gov't NC HQ Incentive -- Reg. NC Share of Incremental Cost -- Govt NC Share of Incremental Cost -- Reg.NC 0,30 $ 40% 0,20 $ 30% Percent of Incremental Cents per Annual kWh 70% 20% 0,10 $ 10% 0,00 $ 0% 10% 20% 25% 35% 40% Degree of Energy Savings Overriding considerations Proposals Proposals Residential CI & SMI based on NYSERDA cost data Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budgets, Others CI Buildings Initiatives ! Proposal # Rec.#59,60 & response to Régie Q#7.1 New Construction: 75-85%+ incr. cost Existing (retrofit): 40-60%+ of tot. cost Proposed Revised CI Initiatives Incentive Existing (Early Retrofit) Savings Threshold Percent of installed cost 0-20% 40% 20-40% 60% Over 40% 70% New Construction / Replacement Savings Threshold Percent of incremental cost 0-15% 75% 15-35% 85% Over 35% 90% DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE énergie | environnement | économie 17 Overriding considerations Proposals Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budgets, Others CI Buildings Initiatives ! Key Proposal Benefits Fulfills HQ’s stated objective of covering share of incremental cost # Accounts for different customers having different EE costs Pulls customers toward comprehensiveness # Overriding considerations Proposals Residential Structure is progressive in practice Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budgets, Others CI Buildings Initiatives ! Comparison Hydro-Québec’s: 20-30¢/ann.kWh # Diff. = Gov’t / Private Our Alt. Proposal: 18-24¢/ann.kWh # ! Diff. = NC / Existing Net Impact: $$ Savings $$ Participants $% Excess payments $% Unit costs (¢/kWh) DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE énergie | environnement | économie 18 Proposals Overriding considerations Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budgets, Others CI Buildings Initiatives – Municipalities Very specific problems: ! Decision-making process: # # # # Lay people (school commissions, etc.) provide design inputs Designer estimates cost Lay people authorize bond amount In-house staff and/or outside professionals write RFP based on bond amount If bond amount does not include EE measures, ex-post EE changes are extremely difficult Rec. #66: HQ can pay design professionals to assist early in process Rec. #67: Fallback strategy – HQ can facilitate innovative financing (municipal leasing co’s, others) paid for by operating savings (%bills) ! ! Overriding considerations Proposals Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budgets, Others CI Small Customers ! Same Barriers, Much Higher More split incentives (tenants) Less ability to estimate savings A lot less time Lower access to capital Analogous to low-income residential ! Require direct install (rec.#70) Covers significant share of cost In-house or ESCOs DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE énergie | environnement | économie 19 Proposals Overriding considerations Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budgets, Others MC/ES for Business Critical new tool Insufficient incentives ! ! Avg. 5¢/ann.kWh ≈ 0.7¢/kWh Experience: <50% is insufficient to motivate participation # Primarily serves free riders Need to increase substantially ! Target 75% incremental cost Avg. ~14¢/ann.kWh ≈ 2¢/kWh (rec.#71) Very cost effective ! Avoided costs ~8¢/kWh Benefit/cost ratio 4:1 Overriding considerations Proposals Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budgets, Others SMI Initiatives for Ind. Process ! Roll into Initiatives for Buildings ¢/ann.kWh created need for separate process incentive # Lower incremental costs than buildings % of incremental cost allows for streamlined approach # If measure costs less, incentive is less % barriers, no risk of wasted resources DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE énergie | environnement | économie 20 Proposals Overriding considerations Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budgets, Others 2005 Cost Impacts ! Significantly lower than contingency No-cost process (17) No-cost changes (23) Very low-cost changes (12) # Staff time, consulting, misc. fees Incentives, other changes (19) # ! Order-of-magnitude cost: ~3-4% Proposals Overriding considerations Novoclimat marketing, MC/ES (CFLs, washers, windows), heat pumps, CI Buildings Initiatives, MC/ES business incentive Residential Proposals CI & SMI Impacts DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE Budgets, Others Conclusion ! ! PGEÉ requires changes to maximize returns from ratepayer funds Recommendations: Rooted in best practice experience Insignificant impact on Y2005 budget # well within contingency Expected results: # more $ savings for more customers # more $ savings for HQ # lower free-ridership rate # higher kWh/$ yield # greater environmental benefit ! = No regrets approach DUNSKY EXPERTISE EN ÉNERGIE énergie | environnement | économie 21