Société en commandite Gaz Métro
Cause tarifaire 2007, R-3596-2006
Annual
Total
Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year
-
Personal Machinery Pre Tax
Expendi- & EqU'p- Corporate
ture
profits
Investment
Benefices
Depenses InvestisseProduit
de Condes
Societds
Interieur ~ ~ m m a t i o nmerit
avant
Productif
~~~t
impdts
Gross
Domestic
Product
Industrial Consumer Industrial
Product
Production Prices
Prices
Average
Hourly
Eamings
Starts
(thousand
units)
Construcion
RemunerProduction Prix la
Prix des
de
LO ements
lndustrielle Consom- Produits
mation Industriels
n&ses
chantier,
en
Moyenne
HOraire
milliers
2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007
MCeges
Economic Forecasters
Bank of Montreal
Royal Bank of Canada
JP Morgan
Desjardins
Caisse de Depot
EDC Economics
ConfBoardofCanada
Global Insight
Toronto Dominion Bank
University of Toronto
BMO Nesbitt Burns
ClBC World Markets
Economap
lnformetrica
Scotia Economics
National Bank Financial
3.5
3.3
3.0
3.2
2.7
3.4
2.3
11.4 10.7
3.4
12.9 11.6
4.5
11.4
5.6
1.6
3.4
3.0
3.1
2.5
10.7 12.3
8.1
5.0
3.2
na
2.9
na
na
7.1
na
3.1
2.8
3.0
2.5
10.0 12.0
na
na
3.1
2.7
3.0
2.8
9.5
7.5
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.9
8.6
6.3
7.0
3.1
5.0
2.5
3.0
2.7
3.8
3.1
8.0
6.6
2.2
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.5
8.0
6.8
6.5
3.0
2.5
3.7
1.6
11.6
7.3
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.4
9.5
8.4
6.5
7.1
2.8
2.5
2.8
2.4
9.0
6.0
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.1
2.7
10.0
8.0
2.7
2.3
2.4
2.3
Consensus (Mean)
3.0
2.7
3.0
2.6
Last Month's Mean
3.0
2.7
2.9
2.6
3 Months Ago
High
3.0
3.5
2.7
3.3
2.3
0.2
3.2
3.2
LOW
Standard Deviation
Comparison Forecasts
IMF (Sep. '05)
OECD (Nov. '05)
na
na
4.1
na
na
3.2
2.2
1.7
2.1
1.3
2.0
na
na
na
na
-7.7
na
na
2.4
3.0
7.4
2.6
7.5
4.0
8.7
6.7
na
7.0
4.0
2.2
8.0
7.2
7.0
5.5
1.5
5.0
8.4
6.4
-0.7
9.4
8.2
9.7
8.4
7.1
8.4
12.9 12.3
2.1
na
na
2.7
na
na
4.1
na
na
4.5
2.0
na
1.8
na
3.8
na
211
2.4
2.1
na
na
na
na
195 185
na
na
2.2
2.1
2.0
na
1.1
3.3
2.0
na
1.7
3.6
2.5
na
na
203 188
192 185
1.4
1.6
1.8
1.3
3.8
3.5
na
na
1.8
1.7
na
na
na
na
na
2.2
na
1.4
1.6
2.0
2.3
na
3.6
na
3.8
na
1.4
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.0
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.3
-7.3
na
6.2
2.3
6.8
6.6
11.4
2.0
2.1
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.5
na
na
1.2
1.6
2.9
2.3
1.9
3.0
3.1
2.4
6.7
3.2
1.4
0.7
3.4
2.4
1.6
7.1
6.0
-0.7
-7.7
0.3
0.4
0.4
1.6
2.3
2.9
4.4
0.7
3.1
3.2
2.9
2.7
Quarterly Consensus Forecasts
Historical Data and Forecasts (bold italics) From Survey o f
December 12, 2005
Q3
Q4
2006
Q1 Q2
2.8
2.9 3.3
Personal
Expenditure
4.0 4.2
4.0
3.4
Consumer
Prices
2.1
3.1
195
210 200
na
208 200
195 184
na
na
197 183
207 185
215 205
3.5
3.2
200
190
0.7
na
3.6
na
3.2
na
204
200
175
185
na
na
na
na
200
190
1.8
1.8
1.6
3.7
3.6
204 190
2.2
1.9
2.7
3.8
3.3
4.1
3.6
2.3
1.7
2.1
2.3
1.5
2.3
2.5
4.5
198 186
197
215 205
1.2
1.3
1.3
0.7
3.5
3.2
192 175
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.7
0.2
0.5
2.4
-
2005
Q1 Q2
Gross Domestic
3.2
2.8
Product
208
7
8
2.5
Governmentand BackgroundData
0 3 Q4
2007
Q1 Q2
2.9 2.8
2.8 2.4
2.9 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.4
2.5 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.0
1.8 1.8
Percentage Change (year-on-year).
16 : 2006.06.26
Original
na
1.8
na
2.0
3.1
4.1
2.2
Prime Minister - Mr. Stephen Harper (Conservative). Government The Conservatives lead a minoritygovernment, with 124 out of 308 seats
in parliament (155 seats are needed for a clear majority). Next Election
By 201 1 (general election). Nominal GDP C$1,290bn (2004).
Population - 32.0mn (mid-year, 2004). C$/$ Exchange Rate - 1.301
(average, 2004).
1.9 2.6
na
1.3
na
1.9
2.7
3.8
-
214 194
na
na
2.3
1.7
Historical Data
% change on previous year
2002
Gross Domestic Product*
3.1
Personal Expenditure*
3.7
Machinery & Eqpt Investment* -3.3
Pre-TaxCorporateProfits*
6.9
Industrial Production*
2.2
Consumer Prices*
2.3
Industrial Product Prices*
0.0
Average Hourly Earnings*
2.1
Housing Starts, '000 units
205
Unemployment Rate, %
7.7
Current Account, C$ bn
21.1
Federal Govt Budget Balance,
fiscal years, C$ bn
7.0
3 mth Trsy Bill, %(end yr)
2.7
2003
2004
2.0
2.9
2005
3.1
3.4
3.9 e
6.4
9.8
10.4 e
8.7
0.7
18.7
3.8
10.7e
2.2 e
2.9 e
2.7
1.8
2.2
-1.4
1.8
3.2
3.3
1.4
3.4 e
21 8
7.6
233
7.2
225
6.8
18.4
28.8
28.4 e
9.1
2.6
1.6
2.5
4.6 e
3.4
10 Yr Govt Bond, % (end yr)
4.7
4.8
e = consensus estimate based on latest survey
4.3
4.0
O Copyright Consensus
Economics
Inc. 2006
SCGM
- 8, Document
8.1
Page 4 de 6
Société en commandite Gaz Métro
Cause tarifaire 2007, R-3596-2006
Election Results Suggest Little Change i n Outlook
Our panel's relatively upbeat outlook remains largely
unchanged from last month's survey, despite the Bank of
Canada raising its overnight rate by 25 basis pointsto 3.50%
on January 24, coupled with a general election upset forthe
Liberals. Economic policy, however, is unlikely to change
markedly, given that the Conservative-ledgovernment needs
to garnercross-partysupport in order to legislateeffectively.
Much-promisedtaxcuts, though, are likely to see the federal
budget surplus shrink, as highlighted by the consensus.
Moreover, a reduction in taxes could support consumer
spending. Retail trade helped to lift overall GDP growth in
November, with sales soaring by 1.3% m-o-m, compared
with 1.6% in October. Excluding auto trade - which surged
by 3.1%in both m-o-mand y-o-yterms-sales still managed
to advance by 0.6% on the back of gains in clothing and
supermarket shopping. Elsewhere, payrolls increased by
26,000 in December, althoughthe unemployment rateedged
up from 6.5% to 6.6% as more people entered the labour
force. Our panel's expectationsforthe jobless rate this year
have increased as a result. A 6.6% m-o-m surge in new
housing starts in December has furtherbrightenedthe outlook
for domestic demand and, consequently, the 2006 forecast
for personal expenditure has risen. lnflation pressures,
meanwhile, remain muted, with prices declining by0.5% mo-m in October, 0.2% in November and 0.1% in December,
bringing the y-o-y trend down from 2.6% in Octoberto 2.2%
at the end of last year. Core inflationhas also eased, showing
little significant pass-through from last year's soaring energy
prices. Consumer price forecasts have been downgraded
but, with the labour and housing markets firm, the Bank of
Canada remains vigilant. Indeed,our panelforesees an 83%
chance of another rate hike.
Direction of Trade - First Half 2005
Major Export Markets
Major Import Suppliers
(% of Total)
(% of Total)
United States
Japan
United Kingdom
Asia (ex. Japan)
Latin America
Middle East
%
-
84.3
2.1
1.8
4.0
1.7
0.6
United States
China
Japan
Asia (ex. Japan)
Latin America
Africa
58.2
6.9
3.9
12.3
6.5
1.5
Real Growth and Inflation
86 87 88 69 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 06 09 10
Real GDP (% chg yoy)
--- Consumer Prices (% chg yoy)
O Copyright
Consensus Economics Inc. 2006
Original
: 2006.06.26
Manufacturing shipments and new orders fell sharply in
November as a result of lower oil and coal prices. Moreover,
industrial production contracted by 0.2% m-o-m during the
same month on the backof a0.3% decline in manufacturing.
Exporters, however, remain resilient, despite last year's
strong C$, with exports reaching C$41.3bn at the end of
2005. This year's industrial production forecasts, however,
have slipped.
..
Likelihood of a Bank of Canada lnterest Rate Change
lour panel's estimated average probability of a change inthe
overnight lending rate (3.50% on survey date)at or
before the next key policy meeting following the survey
date is:
I
I
I
INCREASE
Most likely
%
NOCHANGE
DECREASE
rate change mentioned:
+0.25%
Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates
-
3 Mth Treasury Bill Rate
- - - 10 Yr Govt Bond Yield
SCGM - 8, Document 8.1
Page 5 de 6