ADAPTING WATER
MANAGEMENT PRACTICES TO
CHANGING YUKON
HYDROLOGIC REGIMES
J Richard Janowicz
Water Resources Section
Yukon Department of Environment
Whitehorse, Yukon
IP3 3rd Science Workshop – Whitehorse, YT – November 13 – 15, 2008
OBJECTIVES
• DESCRIBE YUKON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE
• DISCUSS RECENT CHANGES IN CLIMATE
• DEMONSTRATE HOW HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE
HAS CHANGED OVER THE LAST 3 DECADES
• PRESENT RECENT ADAPTATIONS TO WATER
MANAGEMENT PRACTICES
YUKON PERMAFROST DISTRIBUTION
•Yukon Hydrologic
Response
Controlled by
Permafrost (or lack
of)
Sporadic
Discontinuous
Continuous
YUKON PERMAFROST DISTRIBUTION
•Sporadic
Permafrost Zone
Co-located with
Glacerized Systems
•Glaciers Provide
Significant Control
YUKON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE
Ddischarge (m3/s)
250
Glacial
200
Interior
Northern
150
Arctic
100
50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12
YUKON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE
Ddischarge (m3/s)
250
Glacial
200
Interior
Northern
150
Arctic
100
50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12
HISTORICAL
TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION
•Summer Temp
+2-6o C
•Winter Temp
+4-6oC
•Summer Precip
+ 5 - 10 %
•Winter Precip
-10 - + 20 %
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
• Yukon Climate Change Political Reality
• Yukon Government in Process of Finalizing
a Climate Change Action Plan Which
Includes:
– Monitoring impacts
– Actions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions
– Adaptation strategies
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Increasing Peak Flows Due to
Melting Glaciers
Kluane River bl Kluane Lake
Discharge (m3/s)
500
400
300
200
100
0
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Increasing Peak Flows Due to
Melting Glaciers
Atlin River nr Atlin
350
250
Discharge (m
3
/s)
300
200
150
100
50
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
YUKON RIVER
HEADWATERS
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
MARSH LAKE – 2007
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
MARSH LAKE MAXIMUM STAGE
1950 – 2007
5
Stage (m)
4
4
3
3
2
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
2008 KLONDIKE HIGHWAY
FLOODING (Cole Creek)
• Very Wet Summer
•August 300 % Normal
Rainfall
•Hillslope Slump
Produced by Melting
Permafrost
•Triggered Debris Flow
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Decreasing Peak Flows
8000
Discharge (m3/s)
Porcupine River bl Old Crow
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
1200
Discharge (m3/s)
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Firth River near Mouth
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Increasing Winter Flows
18
16
Discharge (m 3/s)
Klondike River ab Bonanaza Creek
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1940
Peel River bl Canyon Creek
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Increasing Winter Flows
0.12
Discharge (m3/s)
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Continuous Permafrost – 10LC003 – Rengleng R at Dempster
Hwy
MANN-KENDALL TREND TEST –
DISCONTINUOUS PERMAFROST ZONE
Station #
09AH003
09AH004
09BA001
09BC001
09BC004
09DD003
09EA003
09EA004
09EB003
10EA003
10EB001
10GB001
10KB001
Drainage Area
(km2)
Record
1750
6370
7250
49000
22100
51000
7800
1100
2220
8560
14600
20200
7400
1975-2006
1983-2006
1961-2006
1953-2006
1973-2006
1964-2006
1966-2006
1975-2006
1982-2006
1961-2006
1964-2006
1975-2006
1978-2006
n
Annual Q
M-S Q
Jl-S Q
MAF
30
24
45
53
34
43
41
31
23
39
42
23
21
-0.39 / -1.39 / -0.33 / 0.30 / 0.12 / 0.82 / 1.79 / *
0.48 / 0.95 / 0.39 / 0.96 / 1.11 / -1.40 / -
-0.73 / -1.31 / -1.01 / -0.36 / -0.20 / 0.52 / 1.13 / 0.15 / 0.77 / -0.08 / 0.09 / 1.57 / -1.44 / -
-0.81 / -1.69 / *
-0.60 / -0.63 / -0.53 / 0.16 / 0.71 / -0.05 / 0.29 / -.61 / 0.72 / 1.44 / -0.99 / -
-0.39 / -1.34 / -2.41 / **
-1.27 / -0.12 / 0.17 / 0.55 / 0.25 / 0.82 / -0.47 / 1.32 / 0.89 / -2.00 / **
Mx Jl-S Q Min Jl-S Q 7-Day Min J Day Mx J Day Min
Period
-1.52 / -0.92 / -1.77 / *
-2.66 / ***
-0.83 / -1.72 / *
0.93 / -0.51 / 1.27 / -2.09 / **
-0.98 / 0.99 / -1.30 / -
0.47 / -1.49 / 0.07 / 0.70 / -0.67 / 0.73 / 2.40 / **
0.90 / 1.14 / 1.75 / *
1.81 / *
1.28 / -0.63 / -
1.52 / -1.19 / 1.70 / *
2.21 / **
2.82 / ***
0.95 / 3.27 / ***
1.68 / *
1.98 / **
0.94 / 2.30 / **
1.03 / 1.00 / -
-1.79 / *
-1.07 / -2.34 / **
-1.17 / -0.71 / 0.60 / -0.70 / -0.41 / -0.40 / -1.56 / -1.62 / 1.35 / -1.21 / -
1.02 / 1.34 / 0.35 / 0.28 / 1.32 / 1.04 / 0.25 / 1.65 / *
2.01 / **
3.72 / ****
0.59 / 2.58 / ***
0.53 / -
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Results Summary
• Winter Low Flows Increasing All Zones
– 50 / 55/ 45 % Con / Discon / Sporatic
• Maximum Annual Flows
– Decreasing Continuous / Discontinuous
– Increasing Sporatic
• Max / Min Summer Flows Decreasing /
Increasing Continuous & Discontinuous
– Mixed Sporatic
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Yukon
YukonRiver
RiveratatDawson
Dawson
Significantly
Significantlyearlier
earlierbreak-ups
break-upsininlast
last23decades
decades
DAWSON BREAK-UP DATE 1896 - 2006
150
145
140
Julian Day
135
130
125
120
115
110
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
2002/03 Mid-Winter Klondike
River Ice Jam and Flooding
Dawson City Winter
Temperatures 1902 - 2005
Klondike River Ice Jam - 2003
Degree Days Frost (
o
c)
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2002/03 warmest winter
2020
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Greater Frequency Ice Jams
Because of Warmer Winters
Old Crow Ice Jam - 1991
Dawson City Ice Jam - 1998
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
RESEARCH
Physical Hydrologic Processes in
Cold Regions Poorly Understood
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
RESEARCH
Wolf Creek Research Watershed
Established to Study Hydrologic Processes
CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
Snowpack Accumulation,
Redistribution and Melt is Variable
•Blowing snow transports 80
% from alpine
•Forest sublimation accounts
for 60 % of snowfall
250
225
200
SWE (mm)
175
•Snowmelt is 300 % faster in
the alpine than forest
Shrub Tundra
Alpine
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
1994
1995
1996
1998
1999
2000
2001
Shrub Tundra
87
111
134
139
179
216
168
Alpine
65
77
35
74
83
29
CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
Cumulative Net Shortwave MJ
Studies Indicate that Evapotranspiration
is 50 % Higher in Forested Areas
400
Tall Buried
350
Short
300
Tall
250
Sub Tall
200
Sub Tall Buried
150
100
50
0
18-Apr
23-Apr
28-Apr
03-May
08-May
13-May
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
UPDATE FLOOD FORECAST MODEL
1.6
Severe Winter
4200 oC-days
1.4
Increase in Stage ((Q/Q
int )
0.6
-1)
1.2
1
3793
0.8
Mild Winter
2600 oC-days
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
oC
60
70
80
90
100
Days of Thaw
Dawson Break-up
110
120
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
FRESHET FORECASTING
RECORDED AND ESTIMATED STREAMFLOW STEWART RIVER AT MAYO - 1983
•NWSRFS
3 /s)
3500
Discharge (m
•Existing model outdated
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
EST Q
500
OB Q
0
9-May 14May
19May
24May
29- 3-Jun 8-Jun 13-Jun
May
•Alaska River Forecast
Center have offered to
provide model and
support
ALASKA RIVER FORECAST CENTER
ANCHORAGE
YUKON TERRITORY FORECAST CENTRE
WHITEHORSE
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
Spring Break-up and Ice Jam Forecasting
Studies for Old Crow and Dawson
CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
Old Crow and Porcupine River
River Break-up Studies using Satellite Telemetry
Will Improve Forecasting Capability for Old Crow
CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
Porcupine River
Athabasca River, January 11, 2005
BREAK-UP MONITORING /
GROUND TRUTHING
ANVIL RANGE MINING CORPORATION
FARO MINE COMPLEX
•Could we
Transfer Wolf
Creek Finding to
Faro Waste Rock
Dumps to Develop
a Water Balance?
ANVIL RANGE MINING CORPORATION
FARO MINE COMPLEX
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
Infrastructure Design Implication Due
to Rapidly Changing Hydrologic Data
Series (last 30 years)
Marsh Lake Dyke Design - 2008
5
Stage (m)
4
4
3
3
2
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Alaska Highway Gas Pipeline
Infrastructure Design
Implication Due to Rapidly
Changing Hydrologic Data
Series (last 20 years)
Alaska Highway Gas Pipeline
SUMMARY
• Climate Change Reality in Yukon
• Increased Flooding from Glacial Regions
– Increased Frequency Ice Jam Flooding
• Wolf Creek Research Watershed
Established to Carry Out Cold Regions
Research
– Adapt Flood Forecasting Models
• Using Remote Sensing to Improve Ice Jam
Forecasting Techniques
• Adapt Design Tools and Methodology
THANK YOU
THANK YOU