NORTHERN MOUNTAIN HYDROLOGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
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NORTHERN MOUNTAIN HYDROLOGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE JR Janowicz, M Allchin, SK Carey, RJ Granger, NR Hedstrom, JW Pomeroy, WL Quinton, O Semanova IP3 Final Meeting – Saskatoon, SK – September 7 – 9, 2011 IP3 - OBJECTIVES • PROCESS – Summarize work carried out at Wolf Creek • PARMERTIZATION – Discuss recent modelling initiatives • PREDICTION – Document changes in Yukon hydrologic response to climate warming over the last 3 decades WOLF CREEK - PROCESS •Established 1992 for Hydrologic Model Development / Calibration Purposes •Variable snow storage, redistribution, melt •Cold soils affecting ET •Frozen soil infiltration •Variable permafrost distribution •Thick organic layers affecting runoff •Seasonality of energy inputs •Poorly defined drainage areas WOLF CREEK - PROCESS •IP3 – (CFCAS) Funding (other funding) •Developed into an Integrated Study of Hydrometeorological Processes and Climate Research PROCESS STUDIES Snowpack Accumulation, Redistribution and Melt is Variable •Blowing snow transports 80 % from alpine •Forest sublimation accounts for 60 % of snowfall 250 •Snowmelt is 300 % faster in the alpine than forest 225 200 SWE (mm) 175 Shrub Tundra Alpine 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 Shrub Tundra 87 111 134 139 179 216 168 Alpine 65 77 35 74 83 29 PROCESS STUDIES Evapotranspiration is 150 % Higher in Forest Compared to Alpine Cumulative Net Shortwave MJ 400 Tall Buried 350 Short 300 Tall 250 Sub Tall 200 Sub Tall Buried 150 100 50 0 18-Apr 23-Apr 28-Apr 03-May 08-May 13-May PARAMERIAZATION Hydrometeorological Process Algorithms Developed / Advanced / Tested •Blowing snow Wsp 0.6 (1 S I ) z w •Sublimation •Interception 2.92 1.64 273.15 TI INF C S 0 (1 S I ) 273.15 0.45 t00.44 •Radiation •Evapotranspiration •Infiltration •Snowmelt •Runoff PREDICTION COLD REGIONS HYDROLOGICAL MODEL (CRHM) Basin Climate Data Basin Data COLD REGIONS HYDROLOGICAL MODEL Sunshine Hours: Calsun HRU Climate Data:Obs Interception: Intcp Shortwave Radiaiton: Global SunMax QdroD Net Radiation:Netall net snow QdroD net snow SunMax Snow Transport: PBSM Albedo: Snow Albedo Cumnet Net Radiation:Net_rn SWE net rain Sublimation: BrushSubl meltflag Evaporation: Evap SWE intercp evap Snowmelt: Ebsm SWE OR snowmelt Frostdepth Summer Infiltration: GreenAmpt Infiltration: Fozen OR Infiltration: Crack Snowmelt: Kevin runoff inflow OR Runoff: Srunoff infil Routing: Route snowinfil Soil Moisture: Smbal evap outflow basinflow basingw soil gw soil ssr Kstorage Lag whereto order ANVIL RANGE MINING CORPORATION FARO MINE COMPLEX •SRK Consulting Ltd •Deloite & Touche •Could we Transfer Wolf Creek Findings to Faro Waste Rock Dumps to Develop a Water Balance? INVESTIGATION OF ANVIL RANGE MINING CORPORATION (FARO) WASTE DUMP WATER BALANCE Objective: Estimate Waste Rock Dump Recharge Determining Contaminant Seepage – Co-Investigators: Raoul Granger & Newell Hedstrom (NWRI) • 4 Year Study – Year 1: Develop Water Balance using Transposed Met Data – Year 2: Develop Water Balance using Site Meteorological Data – Year 3: Develop Estimates for Ave, Dry, Wet Scenario – Year 4: Apply Previous Work to Trial Covers Met Stations Snow Surveys Infiltration Studies % Passing 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0.01 V3 V2 V 1A1 V 5F V 1R 0.1 1 10 100 % Passing Sieve Size (mm) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0.01 G3 G2 G MS G 2A1 G 1A1 0.1 1 Sieve Size (mm) 10 100 Material Characterization RESULTS 180 Evaporation (mm) CUMULATIVE EVAPORATION 160 140 Flat 120 North 100 South 80 East West 60 Bubble 40 20 0 5/8/05 100 5/28/05 6/17/05 7/7/05 7/27/05 8/16/05 9/5/05 9/25/05 CUMULATIVE RUNOFF 90 Runoff (mm) 80 Flat 70 North 60 South 50 East 40 West 30 Bubble 20 10 0 8/1/04 11/9/04 2/17/05 5/28/05 9/5/05 12/14/05 •Infiltration 45-55% precipitation •Surface runoff 15% precipitation Evaporation 30-40% precipitation YUKON RIVER UPSCALING •Environment Canada •USGS •Yukon Water Resources •University of Saskatchewan * Yukon River at Eagle, 345 000 km2 Wolf Creek Research Basin, 195 km2 •State Hydrologistical Institute – St Petersburg Granger * watershed, 8 km2 RUNOFF MODELLING - GRANGER WATERSHED – 1999 -2001 1999 NS 2000 1999 0.93 2000 0.73 2001 0.79 2001 WOLF CREEK – CLIMATE WARMING LINKAGES •Climate Change Issues Priority •Strong GY Support • 2007 /2009 Major Flooding •Linked to Climate Change •Wolf Creek Climate Change Research (Process, CRHM Modelling) CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS PERMAFROST REGIME TRENDS 18 Discharge (m 3/s) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Klondike R ab Bonanza Cr 0.12 0.10 Discharge (m3/s) Winter Low Flows 16 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Rengleng R at Dempster Hwy 2010 CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE Mean Annual Maximum Flow – Peel River above Canyon Creek 8000 Discharge (m 3/s) 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 RIVER ICE REGIME TRENDS Freeze-up Dates (Julian Day) Freeze-up Timing 400 380 360 340 320 300 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Yukon River at Whitehorse (1902-1993) •Freeze-up timing delayed approximately 30 days since 1902 RIVER ICE REGIME TRENDS Break-up Dates (Julian Day) Break-up Timing 150 140 130 120 110 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 Yukon River at Dawson (1896-2011) •Break-up Timing Advanced 6 days per century 2010 RIVER ICE REGIME TRENDS 2002/03 Mid-Winter Klondike River Ice Jam and Flooding Dawson City Winter Temperatures 1902 - 2005 Klondike River Ice Jam - 2003 Degree Days Frost ( o c) 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2002/03 warmest winter 2020 RIVER ICE REGIME TRENDS Break-up Severity Break-up Elevation (m) 321 320 319 318 317 316 315 314 313 1880 Dawson - 1979 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Yukon River at Dawson Annual Maximum Break-up Elevation (1896 - 2011) CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE Increasing Peak Flows Due to Melting Glaciers Atlin River nr Atlin Discharge (m 3/s) 350 300 250 200 150 100 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE MARSH LAKE ANNUAL MAXIMUM STAGE 1950 – 2011 4.5 Stage (m) 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE Mean Annual Maximum Discharge Takhini River near Whitehorse 550 500 Discharge (m3 /s) 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE Mean Annual Maximum Discharge White River at Alaska Highway 1600 Discharge (m3 /s) 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE Mean Annual Maximum Flow – Donjek River below White River Hydrometric Station Locations and Permafrost Zones WATERSHED PARAMETERS Drainage Area Record Glacier Area (km2) Period (%) (oC) Atlin River nr Atlin 6810 1950-08 12.7 -0.6 Wann River nr Atlin 269 1956-93 19.7 -0.5 Fantail R at Outlet Fantail Lk 717 1956-93 33.2 -2.0 Lindeman Creek nr Bennett 240 1954-93 14.6 -1.7 Marsh Lake nr Whitehorse 19400 1950-09 8.3 -1.5 Takhini R nr Whitehorse 6930 1949-08 5.1 -3.0 Duke River nr Mouth 631 1981-08 9.5 -4.9 Kluane R at Mouth Kluane Lk 4950 1952-95 6.0 -5.7 Donjek River bl Kluane R 12400 1979-94 21.8 -8.3 White R at Alaska Hwy 6240 1975-08 38.6 -8.7 Tatshenshini R at Dalton Post 1750 1989-08 7.0 -2.5 Alsek R ab Bates R 16200 1975-08 21.0 -3.5 Alsek R nr Yakatat 28000 1993-08 31.9 -2.4 Station Name Mean Annual Temp CONCLUSIONS PERMAFROST DEGRADING •Permafrost Degrading? •Greater Groundwater Contributions to Baseflow •Some Peak Flows Decreasing SUMMARY • RIVER ICE TRENDS • Freeze-up Timing Delayed 30 Days • Break-up Timing Advanced 6-day/century •More Frequent Occurrence Mid-winter Break-up •Greater Frequency Ice Jam Flooding •Greater Severity Ice Jam Flooding CONCLUSIONS GLACIERS MELTING •Peak Flows not Consistant •Peak Flows Increasing / Decreasing CONCLUSIONS GLACIERS MELTING Glacierized Regions – Little Permafrost •Peak Flows Increasing Due to Glacier Melt Glacierized Regions – Greater Permafrost •Peak Flows Decreasing Due to Longer Pathways to Stream Channel ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS • Robert Stillwell, Jessica Boucher, Colin Abbot Carried out Hydrometeorological Data Analyses • Holly Goulding - Teleconnections • IP3 – CFCAS (Canadian Foundation Climate and Atmospheric Sciences) Provided Travel / Field Work Funding THANK YOU!
