Federal Glaciology and IP3 in the western
and northern Cordillera
Mike Demuth, Alex Trichtchenko, Al Pietroniro,
Chris Hopkinson and Scott Munro
1
Monitoring and assessing the Glacier-Climate system.
Using:
- seasonally resolved mass balances,
- morphostratigraphic evidence,
- remote sensing and
- advanced geodesy,
The objective being to study contemporary and secular changes in water fluxes, the
influence of climate and evidence of climate change
2
Glacier distribution globally (excluding Ice Sheets)
Canadian Arctic Islands – c. 150,000 km2
Coastal Mountains, Rocky Mountains and Interior Ranges = c. 50,000 km2
Excepting the ice sheets, Canada has more glacier cover than any other nation
The volume that this represents, however, is poorly known
While the estimated sea level equivalent for glaciers and ice caps is but a fraction of
that for the Ice Sheets, NW Pacific (N. BC, YT, AK) glacier mass wastage in the last
decade put more freshwater into the ocean than did Greenland.
An inventory of Canada’s glaciers is largely incomplete and current records contain
only rudimentary data
There are, however, provisions for comprehensive information in the inventory
methodology
… information needed to assess past changes and model future extents
3
Surface Facies
– Radar (RS 1, 2)
– Lidar (ALTM)
– Optical (ModIS)
Form and Flow
– Radar
– Optical (ASTER)
Altimetry
– Radar (CryoSat)
– Lidar (ICESat,
ALTM)
In-situ
– Mass balance
– Thickness
– Surface velocity
– Strain
1
10
100
1000 km
How do we monitor: multi-modal, multi-scale
- in-situ
- theoretical up-scaling to provide regional perspectives
- RS-based strategies to provide regional perspectives
- Feed forward and feed back connecting lines indicate Strategy elements that are
needed methodologically and/or for validation and interpretation
The objective being to constrain mass balance/water fluxes in relation to water
resource supply/timing and Sea-Level Change, and their errors.
4
WC2N
WC2N
WC2N
IP3
Where: western and northern Cordillera
Reference GSC sites + fortification with Parks Canada, CFCAS partners and
component activities
5
0.24
0.34
0.22
0.16
0.20
0.14
0.18
Albedo
0.18
0.12
0.10
0.04
Box 1
Trend -5.1 % /10yr
0.14
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.22
0.20
0.18
0.16
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.20
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.10
0.14
Box 2
Trend -3.3 % /10yr
0.22
0.18
0.24
Box 3
Trend -8.6 % /10yr
0.08
0.06
0.04
Box 11
Trend -6.5 % /10yr
0.24
0.20
0.26
0.06
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
0.16
0.28
0.12
0.20
0.18
Box 9
Trend -5.5 % /10yr
0.30
0.14
0.08
0.18
0.32
0.16
0.10
0.20
Box 8
Trend -7.7 % /10yr
0.08
0.12
0.08
0.06
0.10
0.22
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
0.08
0.12
Albedo
0.10
Box 7
Trend -7.7 % /10yr
0.26
0.22
0.14
Albedo
0.12
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
0.08
0.14
0.28
0.24
0.16
0.16
Box 6
Trend -7.2 % /10yr
0.18
0.24
0.30
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
0.18
0.20
0.26
0.32
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
Box 4
Trend -4.8 % /10yr
0.04
0.10
0.08
0.06
Box 5
Trend -5.2 % /10yr
0.04
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
0.10
0.20
Albedo
0.12
0.22
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
0.16
0.24
0.22
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
0.18
0.26
Albedo
0.28
Albedo
0.22
Albedo
0.36
Albedo
0.26
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Albedo
0.38
0.30
0.20
0.28
0.40
0.28
0.32
0.24
0.14
Albedo
0.42
0.30
0.34
0.26
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
0.36
0.28
Some results 1: from the Surface Facies Strategy - glacier SW albedo tracking
- A generalized reduction of SW albedo over mountains in late summer
- Data represent weekly AVHRR (1 km) preliminary results for cartesian blocks
acquired at same imaging week in late summer
- Spatial and temporal noise being reduced by using a glacier mask and the
interactive selection of image week (i.e. reduce bias from mixed pixels and late
summer ephemeral snowfall)
- New effort using national scale, weekly MoDIS data (250 m)
- Related to recent marked changes in the extent of perennial snow and ice
- Depletion of firn pack leads to earlier and increased exposure of glacier ice
- Hydrological significance
- Fuelled the rapid general retreat of glaciers observed in the Cordillera, in-part
influenced by variations in winter accumulation
6
North versus South – PDO switch
Residual Mass Curve - Winter Balance
cumulative % departure
300
200
Gulkana Glacier - Alaska Range
100
Wolverine Glacier - Kenai Mountains AK
0
Peyto Glacier - N. Rockies
Place Glacier - S. Coast Mountains
-100
South Cascade Glacier - N. Cascades
-200
-300
1965
1970
1975
1980 1985
1990
1995
2000
Ny
B

Bi ↑↓= 100∑  i − 1
i =1 

 B
After Demuth and Keller 2006, with additional data from USGS-Water Resources Division
(R.M. Krimmel, D. Trabant, R. March)
Some results 2: In-situ Strategy - variations in winter balance/accumulation
7
Strong (deeper) Aleutian Low : More frequent cyclone tracks
steered towards Gulf of Alaska => Increased meridional
moisture advection towards Cordillera
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Weaker (shallower) Aleutian Low : Fewer cyclone tracks
steered towards Gulf of Alaska => Weaker meridional
(i.e., more zonal) moisture transport in North Pacific
9
- At the 50 year to Century time scale, headwater extension tends to reduce the
buffering capacity of glacier-derived melt during late Summer P-ET deficit
conditions.
- This effect reported for the southern Cordillera by Demuth and Pietroniro 2003,
Stahl and Moore 2006, Pietroniro et al. 2006
10
- Case Study: NSRB and Abraham Lake/Bighorn Generating Station
11
100000
Perimeter (m)
10000
1000
Mistaya ca. 1850
1950s
1990s
100
10000
100000
1000000
10000000
100000000
Area (m2)
- Fiducial lines indicate trajectory of the largest and smallest (still existing in the
1990s) glacier in the sample
- Balloon size proportional to time original area
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N o rth S a ska tch e w a n R ive r B a sin (le ss B ra z e a u )
C u m u la tive h yp e rg e o m e tric siz e -fre q u e n cy d istrib u tio n
1 .0
0 .9
0 .8
0 .7
F ract io n # g laciers >= A
0 .6
NS RB 1 975
0 .5
NS RB 1 998
0 .4
0 .3
0 .2
0 .1
0 .0
1 .E+03
1 .E+04
1 .E+05
1.E+0 6
1.E+0 7
1.E+0 8
Glac ie r ar e a A (m 2 )
- Alternatively, change expressed as a cumulative hypergeometric size-frequency
distribution
13
- End member – glacier cover absent (refer to Al’s presentation re RS/GIS
hydrological models)
#1: can we model historical flows ?
Line = model
Shade = measured
#2: glaciers absent
14
Glacier observing/interpretation challenges
- “mass balance (B)” True/hydrological B ≠ reference/climatological B
- The recurrence intervals of hydrologically significant climate
regime shifts are generally several times shorter than the
volume-response times for most medium – large glaciers,…
… which are therefore responding to both the current climate
and a diminishing series of regime shifts of varying magnitude.
- System driver trends, therefore, prevent establishing simple
relationships between true/hydrological balances and the climate.
- Reference B is the suggested method for analyzing the
response of glaciers to climate… (one holds the glacier
hypsometry constant from t0)
Br =
∂At0 / ∂h × ∂b / ∂h
At0
- One simply determines the balance gradient
- Best accomplished using a simplified stake network for sites where elevation is the
principal control on b (i.e. low spatial noise)
- Most, but not all, benchmark sites in the Cordillera meet this criteria
- There is evidence that mass balance time series for Canadian benchmark sites
have a mix of true and reference values
- Periodic reassessments should address the challenging problem of predicting how
a glacier will respond to real changes in climate
- Thes will require a knowledge of the volume response time and reference surface
mass balances applied to a long time-series of measured values that contain
hydrologically significant variations
15
What then of measuring point values of b ?
dh db
≠
dt dt
Ablation zone – ice emergence
… with current trend of employing altimeters aboard aircraft and artificial satellites to
“measure” mass balance
16
Accumulation zone - vertical strain, compaction
λ (t )
ρ0
dh(t ) λ (t )
=
− V fc (t ) − b(t ) − Vice
ρ0
dt
- Changes in surface elevation measured relative to a vertical reference is related to
the mass balance history only after accounting for the effects of accumulation rate,
near-surface density and vertical strain history. Far field ice velocity at the F.I.T is
taken as negligible compared to processes near the surface
- Vertical strain is measured with DGPS L1/L2 relative to the same reference
framework used by the altimeter.
17
Accumulation zone – internal accumulation
Impulse Radar Record
(1GHz)
Peaks correspond to summer surfaces
Extreme excursions correspond to ice
layers and internal accumulation
where at once an annual stratigraphic
unit may not contain its original SWE,
but also SWE percolating from a
newer unit
- Extreme excursions correspond to ice layers and internal accumulation, where at
once an annual stratigraphic unit may not contain its original SWE, but also contain
SWE percolating from a newer unit
18
How can meeting these challenges assist
Glacier P3 outcomes ?
Observe Bref
Observe srfcxyz
+
(lidar – ALTM)
High-resolution,
precision DEM
- internal accumulation
- strain, compaction
- surface motion
f. ex.,
Btrue
P3
Melt model
scale/resolution
effects
Morpho-metric
controls
Geological
controls
Climate
Water Fluxes
19
IP3 Glacier will assist Federal Glacier S&T
Uptake of Scientific Information
Outlook/Policy Drivers
(ice mass, depletion rates, relationship
to climate, impacts of glacier variations)
(ERCC, reducing vulnerability,
CC adaptation)
• International and National process:
IPCC, ACIA, UNFCCC, UNDP, WMOGCOS, WMO-CliC, GEOSS
• OGDs:
- Parks Canada, Legislated “State of
the Park” Reporting;
- NRCan LERA;
- StatsCan, Legislated “Human Activity
& Environment” Reporting;
- Alberta Environment, Water for Life
Strategy;
- Env. Can., Water Survey, Definition
of RHBN
• Industry:
– Hydro-utilities;
– Mining (response to EA)
• Rudimentary information superseded by
best/comprehensive information
• Improved knowledge of Arctic/Alpine lands
and waters
• Address constraints on economic activities
and ecosystem integrity as they concern
water availability
• Address the financial risk associated with
climate/hydrological variability on hydropower production
• Negotiating positions are informed (e.g.,
cross-boundary water management)
• Regional/National Circumstances
acknowledged
“ERCC” is the acronym for NRCan-ESS’ current Climate Change Program –
Enhancing Resilience in a Changing Climate
Uptake of Scientific Information
International and National process: IPCC, ACIA, UNFCCC, UNDP, WMO-GCOS,
WMO-CliC, GEOSS
OGDs: Parks Canada, Legislated “State of the Park” Reporting; NRCan LERA;
StatsCan, Legislated “Human Activity & Environment” Reporting; Alberta
Environment, Water for Life Strategy; Env. Can., Water Survey, Definition of RHBN
Industry: Hydro-utilities; Mining (response to EA)
Outlook/Policy Drivers
- Rudimentary information superseded by best/comprehensive information
- Improved knowledge of Arctic/Alpine lands and waters
- Address constraints on economic activities and ecosystem integrity as they
concern water availability
- Address the financial risk associated with climate/hydrological variability on hydropower production
- Negotiating positions are informed (e.g., cross-boundary water management)
- Regional/National Circumstances acknowledged
20