Money for nothing or payments for biodiversity? Design and performance conservation tender metrics Stuart M. Whitten and Art Langston CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences Jacobsberg, September 2013 Different measures in conservation policy Step in policy design Example measure(s) Information for target setting Vegetation status Threatened species status Policy targets Water quality targets Vegetation area targets Selection & design of MBI (eg Tender) Measuring impacts in Tender (metric design) Metrics in conservation tenders Monitoring of actions within Tender framework Quantity of water used Habitat structure benchmarks Vegetation condition index Evaluation of Tender Cost and outcomes versus alternatives Evaluation of outcomes against targets Benefit indices etc. What the metric does in a conservation tender… Targeting Resultant allocation metric Allocation order Cost targeting $, usually per unit of land Cheapest first ($C) Benefit targeting Benefit index – usually a dimensionless index reflecting either attributes of a biodiversity, or in some instances several environmental attributes Highest benefits first (BI) Benefit index / cost ratio Benefit index / cost Highest benefits / $ first (BI / $C) Scaled benefit index / cost Benefit index scaled to reflect investment preferences / cost Highest scaled benefits / $ first (BI / $C) Benefit cost ratio A monetized or otherwise scaled benefit index / cost Highest benefit cost ratio first ($B / $C) Either a cost (budget) or a benefit (units desired) target may be applied in each case. Sources: Duke et al (2013); Glebe (2013) What the metric does in a conservation tender… • Means of comparing different investment opportunities • They link an economic criteria of cost-effective investment to biophysical responses to management. • Critical to understand what is being bought and sold. • Difficult for commodities like biodiversity. • Must adequately translate often diverse attributes into a score that sufficiently reflects relative investment value: • Allows for comparison of apples and oranges If you can’t do this in the metric then it should be done elsewhere in program design • Must be practical to implement (time, skill, cost, etc. etc.). • Embedded in utility theory: • Utility is taken to be correlative to Desire or Want … found in the price which a person is willing to pay for the fulfilment or satisfaction of his desire. (Marshall 1920:78) … in this case willingness to pay is most often the purchaser who may be a government. Substitutability and spatial scale … Biodiversity asset heterogeneity Nonsubstitutable (maximum differentiation) Substitutable Noah’s Ark Problem (Weitzman) Systematic conservation planning Forest Conservation Fund MEC, Biometric Bushtender, CRP Paddock Patch Landscape Bio-region Spatial ecological scale Continental Bid interactions and spatial scale … Independence of bids Bid value completely dependent on other offers in set accepted Weitzman approach – none identified but some discussion SCP: pilot in Australia, others? Forest Conservation Fund (Tas) Independent bids Bushtender, Biometric, CRP, MEC Paddock Patch Landscape Bio-region Spatial ecological scale Continental Deciding across differentiation and quality oriented metrics Factor Differentiation oriented Substitution oriented Biodiversity objective Conservation of broadest range of biodiversity Conservation of a single type of biodiversity Marginal contribution of each project to objective High (preferably meets objective for a single type) Low – each bid delivers small step against objective Biodiversity value information needed Coverage across targeted biodiversity types Coverage within a biodiversity type Budget High Lower Geographic scale Regional to national Local to regional Management action Likely to be protection effectiveness information oriented due to large range of possible actions Others? Possible to include many activities targeting outcome Choosing between scale within biodiversity metrics • Project-focussed, no spatial attributes. • Landscape-focussed, marginal value of project. Bid values not independent • Landscape-focussed, optimal package Bid values independent • Project -focussed, with spatial attributes. Some performance criteria for a metric… • Scientifically robust: simple but captures biophysical relationships and responses to investment. • Repeatable: same score each time it is used for the same project and investment action. • Applicable across scope: can be applied across different locations, generates same score for equivalent projects and actions • Economically and socially defensible: Prioritise options in a defensible way. • Scale comparable: the difference in scores must be a sufficiently accurate estimate of the difference in investment values to support decisions about relative funding levels: • i.e. twice the score is twice as valuable from an investment criteria. Three broad forms of paddock/patch metrics: By far the most common in practice • Condition index based metrics • Implied ratio interpretation • Multi-criteria based indices • Usually applied to bundles of environmental services • Expected value oriented indices • In all cases llocation is usually: • In order of BI / $ bid by landholder • Sometimes by BI for multi-criteria indices (eg CRP) Condition 2 > 3 > 4 Peppermint box grassy woodland Photos: Veronica/Erik Doerr Three broad forms of paddock/patch metrics: By far the most common in practice • Condition index based metrics • Implied ratio interpretation • Multi-criteria based indices • Usually applied to bundles of environmental services (not always – e.g. Nature Assist in Qld) • Expected value oriented indices • In all cases allocation is usually: • In order of BI / $ bid by landholder • Sometimes by BI for multi-criteria indices (eg CRP) Does this matter? • Metrics are often a significant cost in tender design • Can be a significant budgetary impediment • Good metrics require specialist skill sets • These skills are often scarce – especially in developing countries and regional areas. • Is the investment in a metric worthwhile? • How much efficiency improvement do we see from better metrics? • Would a rough and ready approach perform just as well? Metric benefit forms compared … Metric compared Alternative benefit estimates Total future benefits (Vfuture) A MEC data set (2011) BGGW metric version 1 (2007-2009) – Gibbons and Ryan BGGW metric version 2 (2010) – G&R modified Additionality Additionality benefit (Vbenefit) over duty of care B C Benefit definitions and metrics … C B Maron, M., Rhodes, J.R. and Gibbons, P. (2013). Calculating the benefit of conservation actions, Conservation Letters A Comparison across metrics 100% Original BGGW 90% Proportion environmental benefit BGGW revised 80% Expected value 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Proportion of budget allocated 80% 90% 100% Agreement between BGGW + original Agreement of allocation across metrics 100% 3 metrics agree 90% 2 metrics agree 80% Proportion of allocated sites no agreement 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% $0 $10 $20 $30 Bugeted cost $ millions $40 $50 $60 MEC across total, full additional and DOC Agreement of allocation across metrics 100% 90% Proportion of allocated sites 80% 70% 3 metrics agree 60% 2 metrics agree 50% no agreement 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% $0 $10 $20 $30 Bugeted cost $ millions $40 $50 $60 Bids sought Prime Biodiversity Photos: Veronica/Erik Doerr Take home messages … • Important for metrics to meet a range of performance criteria for confidence that conservation tenders can deliver on their hypothesized advantages. • BUT does the difference in functional structures or the difference benefit estimates have a strong or weak impact on investment decisions by governments: IF WEAK: • greater flexibility in metric structure ok so long as it consistently discriminates across the tenders submitted • greater freedom to include other elements than economic efficiency into metrics with relatively low risk of distorting decision • E.g. reward landholders for past management keeping in good condition. • Conclude – 1. Rough and ready OK if acceptance rates are high. • Conclude – 2. How much metrics matter once acceptance rates fall depends at least in part on the metric structure. • Conclude – 3. There are other reasons why policy makers will want to keep acceptance rates high Thank you CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences Dr Stuart Whitten and Art Langston Email: stuart.whitten@csiro.au www.csiro.au/science/Markets.html Contact Us Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176 Email: enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au