The use of micro data to enhance balance-of-payments statistics: Workshop on Integrated

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The use of micro data to enhance balance-of-payments statistics:

The case of South Africa

Workshop on Integrated

Management of Micro-databases

20 – 22 June 2013

Outline

Introduction

Background

Financial surveillance in South Africa

International Transaction Reporting System

The computation of primary income payments

International trade in services

Foreign direct investment

Other examples of the use of micro data

Conclusion

1

The on-going financial crisis has had a profound impact on the compilation and interpretation of economic information

Global economic recovery still uneven and fragile.

Large-scale uncertainty gave rise to increased demand for more timely economic information.

Additional data requirements emphasized need to revisit data sources and data collection systems on a continuous basis.

The South African Reserve Bank is officially responsible for balanceof-payments statistics.

Sample surveys play a key role in data collection processes.

However, in a highly integrated economy it has become increasingly difficult to keep track of constant changes in the economic landscape.

In this regard, the utilisation of micro-data play a more important role in compilation processes.

The financial crisis forced policy makers to focus more on the potential risks accompanying international trade

The financial crisis re-emphasised the need for and importance of timely, reliable and accurate economic data.

Moreover, more attention is being paid in understanding the interconnectedness between trading partner countries as well as between creditors and debtors.

The increased data requirements highlighted the need for a regular assessment and expansion of existing data collection systems.

In keeping with the requirements of policy makers, compilation systems should remain relevant, comprehensive and flexible.

The use of micro-data subsequently became more important in filling data gaps, alongside the more extensive use of administrative data.

2

Financial surveillance

Official policy is to gradually abolish remaining exchange control restrictions on South African residents.

Currently, no exchange control limitations on non-residents.

Previous exchange control dispensation paved the way for the development of a newly engineered system to assist balance-ofpayments compilers in the computation of statistics.

The International Transaction Reporting System (ITRS) will always be a supplementary source of information - the newly developed system became operational in 2001 and was thereafter amended in 2004.

A major challenge remains to align definitions and concepts to ensure that data are usable and reconcilable in a broader macro-economic policy framework.

The new system requires close cooperation between balance-ofpayments compilers and staff members of Financial Surveillance

Department.

International Transaction Reporting System

South Africa has 22 Authorised Dealers in foreign exchange.

All Authorised Dealers should comply with requirements of the

Financial Surveillance Department’s International Transaction

Reporting System.

ITRS is currently an open system, therefore not facilitating the reconciliation of stock and flow data.

Challenge is not to burden the system with to much detail, but nevertheless to generate useful data for balance-of-payments purposes.

The current system is a same-source electronic reporting system.

The list of categories is comprehensive, aligned to requirements of the

Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual.

Information submitted through EDIFACT is confidential.

3

The compilation of primary income payments

South Africa has consistently registered current-account deficits since the second quarter of 2003.

These shortfalls have been financed to a large extent by inward portfolio investment.

Companies listed on the JSE usually have fixed dividend policies which simplify the measurement of outward dividend payments.

By contrast, unlisted companies in most cases do not have fixed dividend policies. Dividend declarations by unlisted companies in a direct investment relationship may often not be aligned with the phase of the business cycle and or the performance of the economy.

The ITRS provides balance-of-payments compilers the opportunity to identify unlisted domestic subsidiaries with sizeable dividend payments.

Owing to the irregular nature of these payments, compilers need to confirm the classification of underlying transactions and or whether the transaction did not comprise other transactions as well.

Balance on current account

4

Services, income and current transfer account

International trade in services

The measurement of transactions in international trade in services is complex and difficult to estimate in cases where institutions rely primarily on sample surveys.

Notwithstanding the fact that balance-of-payments statistics are compiled on an accrual basis, an ITRS, which reflects the settlement of transactions, is of invaluable assistance.

An ITRS is comprehensive although the appropriate classification of transactions may provide a challenge.

By analysing transactions per category in, for example, decreasing order, outliers may be identified. The classification as well as the detail in respect of specific transactions may then be queried and verified.

Moreover, a sample comprising enterprises which conduct sizeable transactions on a frequent basis may be identified and surveyed to obtain more detailed information that may be required for balance-ofpayments purposes.

The efficient utilisation of an ITRS requires close cooperation and coordination between the Financial Surveillance Department and the

Research Department.

5

Foreign direct investment

Foreign direct investment flows into emerging-market economies play a key role in financing current-account deficits.

In South Africa, quarterly and annual sample surveys are used to reconcile flow and stock data.

Periodic Censuses of companies with Foreign transactions, Liabilities and Assets are conducted. Apart for determining new benchmark figures for the country’s IIP, the outcome of censuses is also used to construct new representative samples to be used in intervening years.

Sample surveys are continuously expanded to take account of, amongst other transactions, mergers and acquisitions.

Since the economic landscape could change quite quickly, SARB recently embarked on a new initiative to keep track of changing economic landscape by focusing first on group structures before drilling down to identify potential reporting enterprises.

To be successful, regular interaction and trust are needed to build a relationship between direct investment enterprises and the compiling entity.

Other examples of the use of micro data

In addition to the examples already mentioned, the Financial

Surveillance Department also manages and controls a foreign debt system, whereby each and every transaction approval is captured for future monitoring.

This foreign debt system almost serves as a leading indicator for capital movements.

Furthermore, it can be used as a check and balance for information to be reported in subsequent quarterly and annual surveys.

6

Conclusion

Micro data play a key role in the compilation of macro economic aggregates.

In most cases, micro data will be available prior to other data sources such as sample surveys and administrative data.

Micro data should, together with other information collected, be reconciled within a broader macroeconomic framework.

Micro data sets should be consistent and timely.

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