COLOMBIA: STABILITY FOR
FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT
José Darío Uribe E.
Governor Central Bank of Colombia
Lisbon, June 19, 2012
• Fi
Firstly,
tl during
d i th
the llastt d
decade
d th
the C
Colombian
l bi economy seems
to have entered a path of high and sustained growth, with
greater resilience against
g
g
adverse external shocks.
• Secondly, the monetary policy framework adopted since 1999
has been particularly successful in attaining the inflation
targets year after year, and maintaining inflation rates low,
stable and predictable, whilst allowing for a countercyclical
monetary
t
policy
li when
h ffacing
i negative
ti external
t
l shocks.
h k
• Thirdly, central bank’s contribution to the safe and efficient
functioning of the local payment and settlement systems has
allowed for an efficient transmission of monetary policy within
an operational and legal framework that supports other efforts
to attain financial stability.
L ti America
Latin
A
i and
d the
th Caribbean
C ibb
Source: DANE and IMF
C l bi
Colombia
A
Average
1970
1970-2011
2011
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
Growth GDP 2001-2011
2002
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
2%
-3%
2001
% of GDP
Graph 1
Graph 2
Colombia
GDP A
Average G
Growth
th
4,5%
4,3%
4,0%
3 5%
3,5%
3,5%
3,0%
2,7%
2,5%
2,0%
1,5%
1,0%
0,5%
0 0%
0,0%
1980-1990
Source: DANE
1991-2000
2001-2011
Graph 3
Latin America (LATAM) – USD Millions GDP 2011*
((US$ millions)
$
)
2.500.000
2.000.000
1.500.000
1.000.000
500.000
Source: IMF ( * projected)
Bo
olivia
Uruguay
Ecu
uador
Perú
Chile
C
Venez
zuela
Colombia
Argentina
Mé
éxico
Brasil
B
-
Graph 4
Gross National Income Per-Capita – Atlas Methodology (Current USD) GNI pe
er capita, Atla
as Method (cu
urrent US$)
5500
5000
4500
Upper m iddle incom e
4000
3500
3000
2500
Lower m iddle
incom e
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1960 1965
Low incom e
1970 1975 1980
1985 1990
1995 2000
YEAR
Source: Calculations by Banco de la República based on DANE statistics
2005 2010
Graph 5
Investment and Exports
28%
26%
24%
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
Total Exports (%GDP)
Average 1970-2011
Source: DANE
Investment (%GDP)
Average 1970-2011
20
011
20
010
20
009
20
008
20
007
20
006
20
005
20
004
20
003
20
002
20
001
20
000
19
999
19
998
19
997
19
996
19
995
19
994
19
993
19
992
19
991
10%
19
990
% of GDP
22%
Graph 6
Source: IMF
Graph 7
Colombia
GDP A
Average G
Growth
th
7,0%
6,0%
5,9%
5,0%
5,0%
4 0%
4,0%
3,0%
2,6%
2,0%
1,0%
0,0%
2004-2007
Source: DANE
2008-2009
2010-2011
Graph 8
Source: IMF and Banco de la República
Graph 9
Terms of Trade
(Index 1994=100)
(Index 1994=100)
200
175
150
125
100
Terms of Trade
Source: Banco de la República.
Source: Banco de la República
Average
ffeb‐12
ffeb‐10
ffeb‐08
ffeb‐06
ffeb‐04
ffeb‐02
ffeb‐00
ffeb‐98
ffeb‐96
ffeb‐94
ffeb‐92
ffeb‐90
ffeb‐88
ffeb‐86
ffeb‐84
ffeb‐82
ffeb‐80
75
Graph 10
Inflation rate (annual change) 35%
30%
25%
22,1%
20%
15%
10%
3%
5%
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012*
2014*
0%
TOTAL CPI
Source: DANE ( * projected)
AVERAGE 72‐00
Graph 11
Inflation Expectations
7%
7%
5 years
S
Survey
mar-12
dic-11
sep-11
jun-11
mar-11
1%
dic-10
1%
sep-10
2%
jun-10
2%
mar-10
3%
dic-09
3%
sep-09
4%
jun-09
4%
mar-09
5%
dic-08
5%
sep-08
6%
jun-08
6%
1 year
Source: MEC, SEN and Banco de la República
Source: Superfinanciera and Banco de la República
abr-12
2
ene-12
2
oct-11
1
jul-11
1
abr-11
1
ene-11
1
oct-10
0
jul-10
0
abr-10
0
ene-10
0
oct-09
9
jul-09
9
abr-09
9
ene-09
9
oct-08
8
Peso/USD
jul-08
8
abr-08
8
ene-08
8
oct-07
7
jul-07
7
abr-07
7
Graph 12
Colombian exchange rate
2800
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
Graph 13
Policy and market interest rate
Overnight Repo
Consumption (right side)
Source: Superfinanciera and Banco de la República
Policy
Mortgage (right side)
abr-12
ene-12
oct-11
jul-11
abr-11
ene-11
oct-10
jul-10
abr-10
ene-10
oct-09
jul-09
12
abr-09
2
ene-09
16
oct-08
4
jul-08
20
abr-08
6
ene-08
24
oct-07
8
jul-07
28
abr-07
10
Graph 14
Gross Loan Portfolio including Leasing (annual change of weekly data)
30
)
25
24,68
20
19,71
17,66
16,85
15
10
5
0
‐5
Mar‐09
Sep‐09
Loan M/N
Mar‐10
Commercial
Sep‐10
Mar‐11
Household Consumption
Source: Superfinanciera and Banco de la República
Sep‐11
Mar‐12
Mortgage
Graph 15
Composition of Colombian Exports
60.000
Total exports (US$$ millions)
50.000
40.000
69%
30.000
50%
42%
20.000
63%
53%
43%
44%
43%
10.000
44%
38%
38%
43%
56%
62%
62%
57%
2000
2001
2002
2003
57%
56%
57%
58%
50%
2007
2008
47%
37%
2009
2010
31%
0
2004
Others
Source: dane - dian
2005
2006
Mining goods
2011
Graph 16
Mining GDP 2011
(Sectoral distribution)
4%
6%
20%
Coal
Oil
Metallic minerals
Non-metallic minerals
71%
Source: dane - dian
Graph 17
Oil production in Colombia
1.600
2015:
1250 mbd
1.200
2018:
1450 bd
1450 mbd
20%
15%
10%
1.000
Producción
Source: ministerio de minas – dgpm – ministerio de hacienda
Var % anual
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
‐15%
2008
0
2007
10%
‐10%
2006
200
2005
‐5%
2004
400
2003
0%
2002
600
2001
5%
2000
800
Var % anual
Miles de barriles diarios
1.400
25%
Graph 18
Oil Export Volume
1000
120
100
800
700
80
600
500
60
400
40
300
200
20
100
Export volume
Export volume
Colombian export prices
Colombian export prices
•Source: Ministerio de Minas, DGPM – Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
2000
0
US$ / barrel
Thousandd barrels per dday
900
Graph 19
Coal Production in Colombia
180
30%
2015: 128 mill‐ton
160
Producción
Var % anual
•Source: Ministerio de Minas, DGPM – Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
‐15%
2011
0
2010
‐10%
2009
20
2008
‐5%
2007
40
2006
0%
2005
60
2004
5%
2003
80
2002
10%
2001
100
2000
120
20%
2020:
160 mill ton 15%
160 mill‐ton
%
Var % anual
Millon
nes de tonelad
das
140
25%
Graph 20
Coal Export Volume
160
120
140
100
80
100
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
Export volume (millions of tons)
22020
22019
22018
22017
22016
22015
22014
22013
22012
22011
22010
22009
22008
22007
22006
22005
22004
22003
22002
22001
0
22000
0
Colombian export prices
•Source: Ministerio de Minas, DGPM – Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público
US$ / ton
Million
ns of tons
120
Graph 21
35.000
100%
30.000
80%
25.000
60%
20.000
40%
15.000
20%
10.000
0%
Export value (US$ millions)
•Source: Ministerio de Minas, DGPM – Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público
Annual growth
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
‐40%
2002
0
2001
‐20%
2000
5.000
Annual grow
wth
USS$ Millions
Oil Export Value
Graph 22
16.000
60%
14.000
50%
12 000
12.000
40%
30%
10.000
20%
8.000
10%
6.000
0%
Export value (US$ millions)
Annual growth
•Source: Ministerio de Minas, DGPM – Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
‐30%
2004
0
2003
‐20%
2002
2 000
2.000
2001
‐10%
2000
4.000
Annual growth
US$ millions
Coal Export Value
Graph 23
Financial account
(US$ m)
14.000
12.000
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
0
2001
2003
•Source: BANCO DE LA REPUBLICA
2005
2007
2009
2011
Graph 24
Direct Investment
15.000
(Million dollars)
10.000
5.000
0
-5.000
-10.000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Colombian investment abroad
•Source: BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Foreing investment in Colombia
2011
Graph 25
Fiscal revenues resulting from the energy sector (% of GDP)
•CNG Revenues**
•Royalties
•CNG Revenues** + Royalties
•Source: Ecopetrol, Ministerio de Minas y DNP. Estimates: DGPM-Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público.*Projected.
Graph 26
Expected savings from energy‐related revenues y
by the central Government and territorial entities
•CNG Revenues**
•Royalties
•CNG Revenues** + Royalties
•Fuente: Ecopetrol, Ministerio de Minas y DNP. Cálculos: DGPM-Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público.*Cifras
proyectadas.
•Source: Ecopetrol, Ministerio de Minas y DNP. Estimates: DGPM-Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público.*Projected.
Graph 27
Central Government Debt (% of GDP)
49 0
49,0
45,9 45,6
45,0
41,7
40,8
41 0
41,0
38,7
38,3
37,0
36,235,8
34,7
36,8
37,9 37,6 37,5
33 0
33,0
29,0
27,9
26,7
25 0
25,0
•Source: dgpm – ministerio de hacienda y crédito publico
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
21,0
Graph 28
Primary balance of the central government (% GDP)
2,0
,
1,4
1,1
1,0
0,7
0,6
0,3
0,2
0,0
0,0
‐0,7
‐0,8
‐0,3
‐0,5
‐1,5
‐1,0
0,3
0,1
‐0,6
‐1,1
‐1,4
‐1,4
‐1,0
‐1,5
‐2,0
‐2,0
‐1,6
1,6
‐2,0
2,0
‐2,9 ‐2,5
20
022
20
021
20
020
20
019
20
018
20
017
20
016
20
015
20
014
20
013
20
012
20
011
20
010
20
009
20
008
20
007
20
006
20
005
20
004
20
003
20
002
20
001
20
000
19
999
19
998
19
997
19
996
19
995
19
994
19
993
19
992
19
991
19
990
‐3,0
•Source: DGPM-Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público. Excludes the costs of financial restructuring and weather emergency.