Managing
Managing For
For Climate
Climate and
and Climate
Climate Impacts
Impacts
AAConceptual
ConceptualFramework
Frameworkfor
for
Western
WesternPublic
PublicLands
Lands
Connie
Millar
Connie
Millar
USFS, Sierra Nevada Research Center
USFS,
Sierra
Nevada
Research
Albany
and
Lee Vining,
CA Center
Albany and Lee Vining, CA
Publications of Interest:
Publications of Interest:
“Synthesis and Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems”
“Synthesis and Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems”
US Climate Change Science Program, SAP 4.4, Chaps 3 & 4
US Climate Change Science Program, SAP 4.4, Chaps 3 & 4
“Climate Change and Forests of the Future: Managing in the Face of Uncertainty”
“Climate Change and Forests of the Future: Managing in the Face of Uncertainty”
Millar et al. 2007. Ecological Applications
Millar et al. 2007. Ecological Applications
Ecosystems of the Future
Embracing Change
Accept Uncertainty as Premise
for Decision-Making
* Existing management paradigms have limited value
* Manage for desired future processes and ecosystem
services rather than structure and composition
Confronting Climate Change
I. Adaptation Strategies
Assist resources & ecosystems to
accommodate changes imposed by climate
II. Mitigation Strategies
Assist ecosystems to reduce human effects
on climate by sequestering CO2 & reducing
greenhouse gases
“Toolbox” Approach
Essential
One Size Won’t
Fit All
1. Increase Resistance to Change
•
Secure-the-Fort
Defend high-value resources against change
Critical Links & Stepping Stones
Biodiversity Hot Spots
Corridors
Refugia
2. Promote Resilience to Change
Health-Care
• Improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to prior
conditions after disturbance
• Minimize stress; promote health, alternatives, & surplus
Mgmt Examples
- Thin Forest Stands
- Stock Seed Banks
- Make Snow at Ski Areas
- Increase TES Species
Habitat
3. Enable Ecosystems to Respond to
Change Beginner’s Mind
* Assist Ecosystems to Follow Changing Climates
Beware: “Eggsin–One-Basket”
* Anticipate and Plan for Associated Risks
* Relax Genetic Transfer Rules
* Promote Connected Landscapes
* Increase Diversity
4. Realign Conditions to Current Dynamics
Auto Mechanic
For systems far out of the range of natural variability
this may be a useful restoration approach
Historic conditions as management
targets will mostly be inappropriate
DWP diversions
began
Stine 1990
Mono Lake Ecosystem
Overall: Setting Priorities
Management
Decisions
Do Nothing:
No Advance Action
Be Proactive:
Act in Advance
React after Disturbance
or Extreme Events
The WestWide Climate Initiative
Stocking the Climate Toolbox for
Management of Western National Forests & Parks
Millar, Joyce, Nielson, Peterson, Baron et al., Toolkit Project 2008-2010
1. Rapid Audit of Existing Work Plans
2. Evaluate General Management Paradigms for
Climate Compatibility
3. Develop New Climate Objectives
4. Conduct “What If?” Scenarios and Evaluate
Uncertainties for Short & Long Term
5. Develop or Revise Project Plans
Devils Postpile National Monument
A Pilot Case Study in the WestWide Toolkit Project
Climate-Management Goal: DEPO as a Refugium Environment
A “Resistance” Strategy
Developing a Widely Applicable Process for Incorporating
Climate into Park & National-Forest Resource Policy,
Management, & Planning
Climate, Ecosystems &
Resources of
Eastern California
A Regional Science Symposium
November 5-8, 2008, Bishop, CA
Contact: cmillar@fs.fed.us
Plenary, Theme, and Poster Sessions on:
•Climate, Hydrology, Geology
•Ecology & Natural Resources
•Policy, Management, & Conservation
http://www.wmrs.edu/projects/CEREC/
Google: CEREC Symposium
Special Session on DEPO Process
Deanna Dulen: Biodiversity in
Devil’s Postpile: Adapting to and
Mitigating Climate-Change Impacts