Alien Forest Pest Explorer
http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/morgantown/4557/AFPE
2007: The Return of the Gypsy Moth!!!
Gypsy Moth Defoliation 2007
acres
defoliated
2006
1,303,777
2007
1,457,963
Low (< 50%)
High (>
_ 51%)
190
100
95
50
AKS April 2005
0
0
190 Miles
100 Miles
AKS 10/19/07
Photo: Karl Mierzejewski, 2007, Centre County, PA
Photo: Karl Mierzejewski, 2007, Centre County, PA
2008 Cooperative Gypsy Moth
Suppression Projects
Treatment
Acres
Pennsylvania,
190,292
Ohio, 2,200
New Jersey,
190,426
Virginia,
52,300
West Virginia,
97,500
Wisconsin,
13,719
Maryland,
98,500
Gypsy Moth
Suppression
644,937
Slow the
Spread
426,309
Gypsy Moth Outbreaks are Periodic
with an Outbreak Period of ~10 yrs
14,000,000
Defoliation (acres)
100,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
1,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
100,000
2,000,000
10,000
1960
0
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
annual gypsy moth defoliation excluding MI
0.08
Periodogram: gypsy moth
defoliation
0.07
0.06
Power
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
4
8
Period (years)
16
Gypsy Moth Outbreaks are Periodic
with an Outbreak Period of ~10 yrs
14,000,000
Defoliation (acres)
100,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
1,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
100,000
2,000,000
10,000
1960
0
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
annual gypsy moth defoliation excluding MI
Defoliation time series for each 20 x 20 km
cell is derived by overlaying defoliation
maps from successive years
Forest Type Groups
(USDA Forest Service. 1993. Map of Forest Type Groups of the United States. In: Eyre, F. 1980. Forest Cover Types of the
United States and Canada, Washington D.C.: Society of American Foresters)
White-red-jack Pine
Spruce-fir
Longleaf-slash pine
Loblolly-shortleaf Pine
Oak-pine
Oak-hickory
Oak-gym-cypress
Elm-ash-cottonwood
Maple-beech-birch
Aspen-birch
Non-forest
Oak – pine
(dry, low rodent
densities)
Oak – hickory
(intermediate)
Maple-birch-beech
(wet, high rodent
densities)
defoliation
Time-series
0.4
0.7
0.8
0.35
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.6
0.5
0.25
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.15
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.05
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
0.1
0
1975
1980
1985
year
1990
1995
2000
0
1975
2005
1980
1985
year
1990
1995
2000
2005
year
Spectra
4
7
x 10
amplitude
x 10
2.5
10
10
8
8
6
6
1.5
4
4
1
2
2
0.5
0
4
8
period
16
0
x 10
2
4
8
period
16
0
4
8
Period (years)
period
16
Factors affecting gypsy moth
dynamics
• Generalist predators
• Pathogens
• Induced host
•
defenses
Parasitoids
Gypsy Moth
Disease mortality
Predation mortality
1
0.8
30
0.6
20
0.4
10
0.2
0
0
1
6
11
16
21
TIME
26
31
36
Mortality rates
GM abundance
40
Percentage of larvae collected
Is Entomophaga maimaiga replacing NPV as
the primary gypsy moth pathogen?
100
E. maimaiga
LdMNPV
Parasitoids
80
60
40
20
0
33A
33B
33C
Plymale, Hajek, Liebhold, Unpublished data, Centre Co., PA
“Eventually, E. maimaiga may cause the gypsy moth to behave
more like a native insect, and less like an unquenchable exotic
force.”
“The decrease in gypsy moth defoliation levels was
due to increased spray efforts and the widespread
occurrence of the fungus disease.”
“The continued effect of the fungus,
E. maimaiga, and spraying may help
keep the gypsy moth population at
low levels”
“There is general consensus among scientists and pest managers
that E. maimaiga is probably responsible for the decline in gypsy
moth outbreaks and damage over the last few years.”
World Distribution of the Gypsy
Moth
Records of E. maimaiga epizootics in
Japan
Compiled by Ann Hajek,
Cornell University
HOKKAIDO
1978, 1988, 1990
YAMAGATA
1941
NIIGATA
1953
TOYAMA
1952
ISHIKAWA
1952, 1984
AOMORI
1941, 1948
IWATE
1972, 1974
IBARAKI
1986, 1987
CHIBA
1984
World Annual Average Precip. (mm/day)
1988-96
Time Series: Gypsy Moth Defoliation in
Japan
Defoliation (ha)
100000
10000
1000
100
10
1965
1970
1975
Year
1980
1985
Gypsy Moth Outbreaks are Periodic
with an Outbreak Period of ~10 yrs
14,000,000
Defoliation (acres)
100,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
1,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
100,000
2,000,000
10,000
1960
0
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
annual gypsy moth defoliation excluding MI
Gypsy Moth Management
•
•
•
Suppression
Detection / Eradication
Slow the Spread
Spread of the Gypsy Moth
Predicted Gypsy Moth Spread by 2025
With STS (21 km / yr)
No STS (21 km / yr)
2000
2025
Shigesada et al. 1994
(American Naturalist 146:229-251)
range radius
Coalescing Colony Model
jump distance (L)
time
Gypsy Moth Counts in
Pheromone Traps in 1995
Male moths/trap:
0
1-3
3-10
10-30
30-100
100-300
>300
Flow chart of the Slow-the-Spread
Strategy Process
2 km base grid
Isolated
Colony
Detected
Delimitation:
500 m grid
Treatment
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Spread Rate (km / yr)
Historical Rates of Gypsy Moth Spread
Virginia / West Virginia (1980 – 2000)
40
30
historical average
20
10
0
-10
AIPM
-20
1980
1985
1990
Year
STS
1995
2000
Projected Spread of the
Gypsy Moth in the US
60000000
No STS
50000000
25% STS
75% STS
40000000
30000000
20000000
10000000
Year
2010
2002
1994
1986
1978
1970
1962
1954
1946
1938
1930
1922
0
1914
Acres Infested
70000000
Growth of Gypsy Moth Quarantine Area
450000000
400000000
350000000
Acres
300000000
Total
250000000
200000000
150000000
Susceptible
100000000
50000000
0
1920
1940
1960
Year
1980
2000
Percent Basal Area Preferred by the Gypsy Moth
Current
range
Area Infested (acres)
70000000
14000000
60000000
12000000
Defoliation
50000000
40000000
30000000
10000000
8000000
Susceptible
Area
6000000
20000000
4000000
10000000
2000000
0
1920
1940
1960
Year
1980
0
2000
Area Defoliated (acres)
Growth of Gypsy Moth Defoliation Area
Gypsy Moth Management
•
•
•
Suppression
Detection / Eradication
Slow the Spread
Annual Gypsy Moth Defoliation as a Percent
of the Quarantined Susceptible Area
Percent Defoliated
60
50
40
30
Average = 6%
20
10
0
1920
1940
1960
Year
1980
2000
3000000
Projected Gypsy Moth
Suppression
area
Acres
2000000
40000000
area - predicted
35000000
cost
30000000
Cost- predicted
Dollars
2500000
45000000
25000000
1500000
20000000
15000000
1000000
10000000
500000
5000000
0
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
Gypsy Moth Management
•
•
•
Suppression
Detection / Eradication
Slow the Spread
Gypsy Moth Detection Survey Results, 1993
18000000
300000
250000
16000000
Area of Eradication Projects
14000000
12000000
200000
10000000
Defoliation
150000
8000000
6000000
100000
4000000
50000
0
1960
2000000
1965
1970
1975
1980
Year
1985
1990
0
1995
Defoliation (ac)
Area of Eradication Projects (ac)
Eradication Projects Track
Lagged Defoliation
1000000
800000
45000000
area
40000000
area - predicted
35000000
cost
30000000
Acres
costs - projected
25000000
600000
20000000
400000
15000000
10000000
200000
5000000
0
1970 1975
1980 1985 1990
1995 2000 2005
Year
0
2010 2015
cost (dollars)
1200000
Projected Gypsy Moth
Eradication
Projected Suppression and Eradication
Costs
suppression
45000000
suppression - projected
40000000
Cost (dollars)
35000000
Eradication
30000000
25000000
eradication - projected
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Year
2000
2005
2010
2015
Percent Basal Area Preferred by the Gypsy Moth
Current
range