Seed zones and climate change
Francis Kilkenny
USDA FS Pacific Northwest Research
Station, Corvallis, OR
Photo: Berta Youtie
Collaborators
Brad St.Clair
USDA FS Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis, OR
Matt Horning
USDA FS Region 6, Bend, OR
R.C. Johnson
USDA ARS Western Regional Plant Introduction Station, Pullman, WA
Beth Leger
University of Nevada, Reno, NV
Nancy Shaw
USDA FS Rocky Mountain Research Station, Boise, ID
Many others who provided seed from many populations
Funding agencies: USDA Forest Service, BLM, GBNPSIP, WWETAC
Will plants naturally adapt to rapid climate change?
Three possibilities when environments change:
1.
Move
• Migrate to new habitats
2. Stay
• Acclimate by modifying individuals to
new environment (phenotypic
plasticity)
• Evolve through natural selection
3. Disappear
• Extinction of local population
Aitken et al. Evolutionary Applications 2008
Will plants naturally adapt to rapid climate change?
Three possibilities when environments change:
1.
Move
• Migrate to new habitats
Assisted migration
2. Stay
• Acclimate by modifying individuals to
new environment (phenotypic
plasticity)
• Evolve through natural selection
3. Disappear
• Extinction of local population
Aitken et al. Evolutionary Applications 2008
Will plants naturally adapt to rapid climate change?
Three possibilities when environments change:
1.
Move
• Migrate to new habitats
Assisted migration
2. Stay
• Acclimate by modifying individuals to
Plant broadnew environment (phenotypic
based varieties
plasticity)
• Evolve through natural selection
3. Disappear
• Extinction of local population
Aitken et al. Evolutionary Applications 2008
Will plants naturally adapt to rapid climate change?
Three possibilities when environments change:
1.
Move
• Migrate to new habitats
Assisted migration
2. Stay
• Acclimate by modifying individuals to
Plant broadnew environment (phenotypic
based varieties
plasticity)
Add genetic
• Evolve through natural selection
variation
3. Disappear
• Extinction of local population
Aitken et al. Evolutionary Applications 2008
Will plants naturally adapt to rapid climate change?
• Consensus Douglas-fir seed zones/ climate data:
• how will climate change affect migration and seed transfer?
• Genecological study of bluebunch wheatgrass:
• How will climate change affect selection on adaptive traits?
How much will bluebunch need to acclimate or evolve?
• Is there a possibility of bluebunch extinction?
Consensus seed zones
- Composition: many data sets,
management boundaries,
expert opinion
- Goal: use legacy seed zones
to compare areas subject to
change
- Methods: grid of points
across zones, compare
climate characteristics of grid
points within and among
zones
Variation within and among Douglas-fir seed zones
- Seeds zone in
“climatic space”
- Change in
“climatic space”
due to climate
change
Variation within and among Douglas-fir seed zones
Mean Annual Temperature (C)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Mean Annual Precipitation (mm)
Seed Zone
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Seed Zone
Expected climate shifts for Douglas-fir seed zones by 2050
1.6
1.4
MAT Shift
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Seed Zone
300
MAP Shift
250
200
150
100
50
0
Seed Zone
12
12
11
11
Mean Annual Temperature
Temperature: +0.9 ± 0.38 C°
Mean Annual Temperature
Variation within elevation bands
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
8
7
6
5
4
3
0k-1k 1k-2k 2k-3k 3k-4k 4k-5k
Washington 7
Oregon 9
5000
Mean annual Precip. (mm)
Mean annual Precip. (mm)
9
0k-1k 1k-2k 2k-3k 3k-4k 4k-5k
5000
Precipitation: +496 ± 397 mm
10
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0k-1k 1k-2k 2k-3k 3k-4k 4k-5k
0k-1k 1k-2k 2k-3k 3k-4k 4k-5k
Washington 7
Oregon 9
Variation within elevation bands: current and future climate
13
9
7
5
1k-2k
2k-3k
3k-4k
2050
1961-1990
2050
1961-1990
2050
1961-1990
2050
2050
0k-1k
1961-1990
3
1961-1990
Mean annual temp. (C°)
11
4k-5k
Bluebunch: heading date
Primarily affected by beginning of
frost free days and precipitation
as snow
bFFP
PAS
0.47
0.21
Regression:
147.07 - 5.34*MAT + 2.6*MCMT + 1.48*TD +
0.53*EMT + 0.03*Eref
St. Clair et al. Evolutionary Applications 2013
Bluebunch: leaf width:length ratio
Primarily affected by heat
moisture index and mositure
deficit
AHM
CMD
SHM
0.63
0.59
0.58
Regression:
20.33 + 1.11*MAT + 0.2*AHM
St. Clair et al. Evolutionary Applications 2013
Bluebunch: biomass
Primarily affected by precipitation
and extreme minimum
temperature
EMT
MSP
MAP
0.37
0.32
0.31
Regression:
1138.87 - 13.51*MWMT + 7.24*TD + 0.05*MAP 0.16*SHM -3.2*bFFP - 1.91*FFP - 0.2*PAS + 7.9*EMT
St. Clair et al. Evolutionary Applications 2013
Change in optimal trait values: heading date for
bluebunch wheatgrass in western US
Current climate
2050
Change in optimal trait values
Northern Great Basin
Snake River Plain
Blue Mountains
Columbia Plateau
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Heading date shift by 2050
Northern Great Basin
Snake River Plain
Blue Mountains
Columbia Plateau
0
2
4
6
Leaf length:width ratio shift by 2050
8
Change in optimal trait values
Northern Great Basin
Snake River Plain
Blue Mountains
Columbia Plateau
-100
-80
-60
-40
Biomass shift by 2050
-20
0
Insights
• Data from consensus seed zones and genecological studies can
help determine how far plants will need to migrate, how much
plants will need to acclimate or evolve, and whether they are
subject to extinction.
• Predictions and outcomes depend on the species and
geographic location:
• Douglas-fir populations may need to migrate 1000ft higher
in elevation
• Bluebunch wheatgrass may need to grow narrower leaves,
shift flowering phenology up to several days, and may go
extinct in some areas of it’s current range.
• Uncertainty and variation exists at all scales.
Thank You!
Photo: Berta Youtie