UNESCO
THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL OCEANOGRAPHIC COMMISSION
AND
THE SIR AUSTER HARDY FOUNDATION FOR OCEAN SCIENCE
MONITORING THE HEALTH OF THE OCEAN:
DEFINING THE ROLE
OF THE CONTINUOUS PLANKTON RECORDER
IN GLOBAL ECOSYSTEM STUDIES
UNESCO
IOC/INF-869
0 5 MAR
THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL OCEANOGRAPHIC COMMISSION
AND
THE SIR AUSTER HARDY FOUNDATION FOR OCEAN SCIENCE
MONITORING THE HEALTH OF THE OCEAN:
DEFINING THE ROLE
OF THE CONTINUOUS PLANKTON RECORDER
IN GLOBAL ECOSYSTEM STUDIES
SC-92/WS-8
UNESCO 1991
R e-occupy Alantic
tim e-series routes.
New "Southern route’
B a h a m a s - U.K.
Existing
S u p p o rt for
local prc
stu d ies.
M aintain N. S e a
tim e-series routes.
New W estern
M editerranean
circuit.
New routes Arabian SeaIndian ocean.
New "G iant Route"
Tokyo - N oum ea.
New "Giant route'
California - Chile.
Existing S outhern
O cean survey. AAD.
Towards Global Ecosystem Monitoring: The Developing CPR Survey.
TABLE O F CONTENTS
Forew ord
1.
iii
Introduction
1
1.1 El Nino and the East Pacific Ecosystem
3
1.2 C oastal Upwelling and climate change
7
1.3 A rabian sea productivity and the changing m onsoons
11
1.4 C 0 2 drawdown and global warm ing
13
1.5 C od and C lim ate
17
1.6 A bnorm al plankton blooms and avoidance by grazers
19
1.7 Large-scale routine survey
23
2.
T h e "Developing CPR" p rogram m e
26
3.
C u rre n t m ajor ecosystem studies
28
4.
3.1 T h e LM E C oncept
28
3.2 G O O S / C O O S of the lO C -U N E P -W M O
30
3.3 T h e integrated Atlantic project of th e C E C (M ast 11)
31
3.4 G L O B E C o f S C O R - IO C /O S L R
32
T ow ards a m o re global coverage
35
4.1 Re-occupying the ’time-series’ routes
in the N orth Atlantic and N orth Sea
5.
35
4.1
T h e M ed iterran ea n
35
4.3
A rabian Sea
41
4.4
West Pacific, East Pacific "Giant Routes"
43
4.5
S outh ern O c ean
45
4.6
M iscellaneous/process-study supp ort
45
4.7
Total cost
47
R eferences
50
i
FOREW ORD
A s th e Global O cean Observing System o f the IOC, U N E P a n d W M O moves towards
im p le m e n tatio n (IO C 1990, 1991b), it is an essential part o f the p lan nin g process to stim ulate
the fullest possible discussion of what th e Im plem entation Plan should contain.
T h o u g h the Observing System is being set up to m eet a list o f global objectives,
--
principally th ose which enable us to distinguish the global-climate signal from th at d u e moredirectly to M a n - it is obvious from the o u tset that the type o f clim atic impact, the n a tu re of
M a n ’s interfe ren c e with the m arine e n viron m e n t, and the am plitu d e o f b o th will differ from one
region o f the W orld O cean to another.
Thus, to be effective in following th ese changes, predicting th e ir effects an d identifying
a p p r o p ria te co u n te r m easures, the G lobal O c e a n O bserving System th at w e set up should not
be wholly rigid in its content, but should be sufficient flexible to apply a variable mix o f m ethod s
and techniques, and a varying sam pling strategy to the differing an th ro p o g e n ic problem s and
climatic im pacts o f individual regions.
It follows that the evolution of th e G O O S plan is probably best achieved through inter
G o v e rn m e n ta l discussions which a re stru c tu re d not only by scientific discipline o r observing
m eth o d but also by geographical sector, in o rd e r that the mix of p r o g r a m m e co m p o n en ts which
G o v e rn m e n ts select for inclusion and s u p p o rt form a global survey th a t is relevant to regional
problem s.
T h is repo rt concentrates on just o n e co m po nen t o f the p re s e n t dra ft Plan - the use of
"instrumented tow ed vehicles from selected ships-of-opportunity fo r collection o fp la n k to n a n d m arine
environm ental data" (IO C 1991b, P13) - to illustrate ways in which th e C o n tin u o u s Plankton
R e c o rd e r survey might be ad apted an d expanded to m eet a ra n g e o f perceived regional
problem s, and at what cost. As such it is not intended to dictate an observational strategy for
G O O S , but to stim ulate the discussion from which such a strategy m ight evolve. Similar repo rts
covering o th e r subject-areas a re p lanned by IO C in d u e course. T h e I O C is indebted to R. R.
Dickson w ho p re p a re d this docum ent.
1.
In tro d u c tio n : T h e aim o f this d o cum ent is to dem on strate that an expanded and developing
C P R system is an ap p ro p ria te device for m onitoring th e health of th e oceans.
In Section 1 we briefly d escribe a range o f global problem s in which th ose co m p o n en ts of the
p lan k to n that a re well-sampled by the pre sen t C ontinuo us Plankton R e c o rd e r play a controlling
o r modifying role.
1.1 El Nino and th e E ast Pacific Ecosystem
1.2 C oastal upwelling a n d climatic change
1.3 A rabian Sea productivity and th e changing m onsoon
1.4 C 0 2 drawdown and global w arm ing
1.5 C o d and climate
1.6 A b norm al plankton blooms, and avoidance by grazers
1.7 Large-scale routine survey
S ection 2 then describes what we m ean by the "developing CPR" pro gram m e. Briefly, the point
w e m ak e is that there is no re q u ire m e n t to regard the existing C P R in strum ent as th e sole and
unchanging vehicie.
Today, w hen exploring new areas for plankton m on ito rin g we would
undo ubtedly assess the zoogeography with a mix of techniques, including undu lating recorders,
b e f o re settling down to m o n ito r long-term at fixed depth. F or the future, th e re is equally no
re q u ire m e n t that we retain th e sam e system forever. A range of exciting new methodologies
a r e becom ing available for co ntin uo us plankton m onitoring (acoustic, optical or som e
co m b in ation ) that do not necessarily re q u ire cou ¡ting to species an d th e challenge will be to
m a p the way forward from th e pre sen t technology to so m e future technology w ithout losing the
m ain accum ulated asset - th e m ultidecadal tim e series.
Section 3 briefly describes th e curren t m ajor ecosystem studies in which plank ton m onitoring
by th e C P R system will be o f crucial significance. T h e point h ere is that even although the time
scales o f these studies may be finite they all benefit from the longer-term context which the
"developing CPR" p ro g ra m m e will provide. C urre n t and future initiatives a r e
L M E ’s of N O A A
-
G O O S / C O O S of IO C -U N E P -W M O
-
O M E X ofC E C
-
G L O B E C of S C O R and IO C -F A O /O S L R
Finally, in Section 4 we a tte m p t to describe the mix o f regional m onitoring efforts that we can
envisage within the next d ecade. This highlights for discussion - an d possible alteration - the
p riorities for deploying a finite re sou rce to address global problems, the expected cost of doing
so, and the adm inistrative s tru ctu re required.
1
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P r o p o r t i o n of S t r o n g o r W e a k R e c r u i t m e n t
F5
F2
2
C ase 1.1
•
El Nino and the East Pacific Ecosystem
T h e analysis o f the m ulti-decade C alC O F I d a ta set reveals the p resen ce o f a dom inant
low-frequency signal in the entire pelagic ecosystem o f the California C u rre n t (Bernal, 1981).
FI
•
This low-frequency response of the ecosystem is coheren t with changes o f th e flow p attern
occurring in the whole eastern boundary cu rren t (Chelton, 1981).
•
C h elto n shows th at th e observed variations to th e large-scale Z ooplankton biom ass offshore
can n o t be explained solely on the basis o f coastal upwelling.
H ow ever, th e large-scale
advection in the C alifornia C u rren t ap p ears to be linked to th e large-scale Zooplankton
variability over in ter-an n u al tim e scales. In creased eq u ato rw ard tran sp o rt brings increased
Zooplankton biom ass. F2
•
A p o o r correlation with longshore wind stress indicates that these fluctuations a re not forced
by local windstress. (T h e scales o f the physical and biological fluctuations a r e much longer
than those o f the wind stress).
•
In m any cases the variations b ear a strong resem blance to El Nino events in the eastern
tropical Pacific with a time-lag of several months, consistent with th e view that the El Nino
signal pro pag ates poleward as coastally trap p e d waves which lead to anom alously strong
poleward geostrophic flow (M cCreary, 1976).
•
However, the C alC O F I record shows occasional strong events with no e a ste rn tropical
Pacific coun terp art (Chelton, 1981).
•
C helton et al. (1982) p ropo se that the Alaska an d California currents fluctuate out of phase
in respo nse to large scale changes in th e Pacific windfield.
E n h an c ed circulation in the
A laska gyre is accom panied by reduced southw ard transport in the California cu rren t and
vice versa. F3
• .............
S um m ary. T h e circum stances of this case a re u n iq ue in m o re respects than th e impressive
quality o f the data-set.
A ddin g L o n g h u rs ti (1966) story o f the n orthw ard advection o f the
pelagic crab P leuroncodes (F4) and other massive invasions o f w arm w ater organism s during El
N ino/w eak-C alifornia C u rre n t episodes, an d th e recent evidence o f synchronous strong
recru itm ent in a range o f N E Pacific fish stocks (F5, Hollowed and W ooster, 1991), the picture
is one o f coh e ren t long-period ecosystem change over a wide latitude range.
M cG ow an has
p rop osed that in ecosystem changes like this, classic biological interactive p rocesses such as
3
F4
ADVECTION OF PLEURONCODES-CALIFORNIA CURRENT
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
i9 6 0
1961
1962
POINT
CONCEPTION
«Til ■
SAN DIEGO
f e I
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lii. ¡iii
T
i
íl
BAHIA
MAGDALENA
‘
ïk M L J L
T iT h -ilT L
p T v if
fl
ü
(L0NGHURST.I966)
com petition and predation will he secondary as regulatory m echanisms to the disruptive effects
of the physical conditions them selves (see Bernal, 1981). However, although th e Zooplankton
com m unity is at the heart o f these changes little is known o f th e m echanism s which link the
planktonic variation to the physics. D o the changes in Zooplankton volum e reflect an advecting
population or the in situ effects o f "dynamical upwelling" as the California C u rre n t strengthens?
(Chelton 1981). While the C alC O F I coverage is m o re th an a d e q u a te to cover its own dom ain
and interests it would nevertheless he valid and valuable to connect th e C a lC O F I area, the
Costa Rica dom e, the ea stern root of the El Nino signal in the eastern tropical Pacific and the
upwelling centres off South A m erica on a rou tine basis even if the C P R coverage (because of
th e great distances) was forced to be discontinuous. T h e aim would be to extend o u r knowledge
of the coherence of these ecosystem changes, first, and to seek to illuminate their dynamics
second.
5
F6
P ro p o se d m echanism .
Increased se a so n a l heating due to
a tm o sp h e ric g re e n h o u s e effect
in c r e a s e s te m p e ra tu re c o n tra st
betw een continental land m ass and
c o a sta l o c e a n . T he th erm al low
p ro s su re cell In th e con tin en tal
interior Is Intensified, Increasing the
c ro s s -s h o r e p r e s s u r e g ra d ie n t
betw een the spring-sum m er conti­
n e n ta l ‘ Low" a n d th e o ffshore
o c e a n ic "High". T his in c re a se d
p re s s u re g ra d ie n t su p p o rts an
intensified alo n g sh o re geostrophic
w ind d ire c te d su c h th a t, with
re sp e c t to a p e rso n lacing dow n­
wind, low p re ssu re would b e on his
led in the northern hem isphere and
on his right in th e so u th ern hemisphere.C orrespondingly in creased
Ekm an tran sp o rt, d irected 90° to
the right of the wind in the northern
h e m isp h e re (to th e lelt in the
so u th e rn h e m isp h e re ), le a d s to
en h an c ed co a sta l upwelling which
may feed back a s further enhanced
land - se a tem perature contrast.
SOUTHERN
H E M IS P H E R E
(Bakun 1991)
2.4
20
A California • 39*H (April to S»pt*mb*f) '.
' •' J I - - -
1.6
..........................................................................................................
1.2
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B Ib«fl»n P tftosub - 43°N (April to SepUmtow)
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D Paru • 4.S*Sio h.S'S (October to March)
F7
0.4
0.3
E Paru • 4.5*6 to US'S (Aprl io September)
0.7
0.6
. .. . . .
~r Tv\ ;
0.5
1950
1960
1970
1960
YMr
Bakun 1990
6
Within-year averages of
monthly estimates of alongshore
wind stress off (A) California, (B)
the Iberian Peninsula, (C) Moroc­
co, and (D and E) Peru (in D, each
mean value for October to March is
assigned to the year in which the
January to March portion falls).
Short dashes indicate the long-term
mean of each series. Longer dashes
indicate the linear trend fitted by
the method of least squares.
C ase 1.2
•
Coastal upwelling and clim ate change
Early sim ulations of global warming em phasised changes in the strength a n d position of
global windbelts that might arise through change in the thermal contrast from e q u a to r to
pole.
•
B akun (1991) p rop oses an alternative respo nse in which increased season al heating due to
the g re en hou se effect increases the te m p e ra tu re contrast between the co ntin en tal land mass
and th e coastal ocean, intensifying the cross-shore pressure gradient an d thus augm enting
the long-shore geostrophic wind in the sense that upwelling is stimulated along both the west
and east sides o f continents and in both hem ispheres. F6
•
B akun (1990, 1991) provides evidence that longshore wind stress has b e e n showing an
intensifying tren d over the last several d ecad es off California, Iberia, M oro c co and Peru.
F7
•
T hough an artificial "anem om eter effect" exacerbated by a "stable a tm o s p h e re effect" will
have acted in th e sam e sense, Bakun (1991) concludes that this could accoun t for only a
fraction o f the observed trend, i.e. the tren d ap p e a rs real, and this signal see m s likely to
increase with time.
•
If real, then a change in the location onset a n d / o r am plitude of upwelling is likely to bear
m ajor implications for upwelling ecosystems.
C ushing (1971) show ed that production in th e rising w ater is strongly ra te dependent,
w ith m axim al production obtained at m o d e ra te to low upwelling velocities ( < 0.5 m d '1);
th en th e Zooplankton grazing capacity is allow ed to develop fully w ithin th e upwelling
p lum e w hile at g re a te r vertical velocities grazing balance may not b ec o m e established
until th e p ro d u ctio n reaches the surface and d rifts offshore.
Bakun and P arrish (1982) showed how intim ately the life history o f pelagic fishes in the
C alifornia an d P eru current systems w e re b ou nd up with the 3 re lated p a ra m e te rs of
turbulent mixing (food concentration), offshore transport (losses o f spaw ning products)
and upwelling (system productivity). F8
Cury and Roy (1989) introduced the concept o f an optimum "window" o f upwelling rates
for reproductive success of pelagic fishes in upwelling regions; winds m ust b e neither so
w eak that th e re is insufficient upwelling to enrich the food levels n o r so strong that
turbulent mixing disrupts the concentrations o f food organisms essential for larval
survival. F9
Dickson et al (1988) describe the respo nse o f th e California S ardine to such effects in
showing a d ra m a tic shift in their tim e o f p ea k spawning during a m ajo r intensification
o f upwelling in the 1950s.
7
Baku n a n d P a r ris h 1982
C l ' 3 E O F ii'
W INuSPEEb
C a r r a s c o a n d L o z a n o 1989
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F8
T í k ' «i*
C h a ra c te ris tic se aso n a l re la tio n s h ip o f tu rb u le n t m ix in g e n e rg y
p ro d u c tio n (p ro p o rtio n a l to c u b e o f w in d sp e ed ) a n d o f fs h o r e -d ire c te d H k m a n
tra n s p o rt fo r v a rio u s lo c a tio n s o f f the w e s t c o a sts o f N o rth a n d S o u th A m e ric a
F a c h n u m b e re d sy m b o l re p re s e n ts a 2 -m o n th sa m p le , w ith th e n u m b e r
c o rr e s p o n d in g to th e first m o n th o f th e tw o (e g 1 r e p re s e n ts Ja n - F e b ,
3 re p re s e n ts M a r .- A p r , e tc )
1- !. lui iii I . I
0
74
76
70
ÖO
62
94
ae
F10
T rtn d c f z o o p h n k to n »bundw ce off Peru, 1964 to 1987. Note
strong decline in all three z t n t t ánd overall lower b io m iite * in ire* B
ft
o
K
c
10
g
0 9
3
U 07
O
*- 0$
M C < U '< V I
=
C
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0 5
0 4
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02
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1 97 0
1975
1980
1985
C <ST| 111 I T
F9
T h e o r e tic a l re la tio n s h ip b e t * c t n r t r n j. tm e n l a n d e n v iro n m e n ta l f i e l e n in u p * e llin g a re a s
F 11
T im « t e n e s o í r e c r u i u r e r t ( o f f u h n n g i r g tr o m
3 75 i o 4 7 5 c m . slig h tly l e u i> »n 3 m o n g ii o ! J ) m ío
ih e » .-ic h o v e u sto c k . Ja n u a ry 1953 lo D e c e m b e r 1 9 6 5
( C u r y a n d R o y 1989)
íriCTiiMy
r e c ru itm e n t
ih o » u - g
in c re a s in g
v m i b i l i t y . fro m ih e t u e 1950* io 1 9 7 0 . p r o b a b ly d u e io
t r c r t i j i n g f i i h i r g p re s s u re a n d l e i d i r g to r e c ru itm e n t
c o lla p s e m e a r ly 1 9 7 1 , p n o r t o th e o n s e t o f th e 1 9 7 2 1973 E l N ifio
«
,
.
P auly a n d P a l o m a r e s 1989
8
-
•
T h e parallel decline o f the Zooplankton (C arrasco and Lozano 1989) and th e anchoveta
(Pauly and P a lo m are s 1989) off P eru since th e late ’60s app e ars equally clear evidence
o f a whole-ecosystem response, with Zooplankton at its core. FIO F l l
A t their peak th e w o rld ’s great pelagic fisheries have concerned an annual total production
o f 30 M t o r abou t one-third of the total global fish catch. T h e variability ( E max - E min)
is almost as great (Lluch-Belda et al, 1989).
• .............
S um m ary. " G reenho use-related wind changes would seem capable o f rearranging the geography
o f suitable spawning habitat "in coastal upwelling systems (Bakun, 1991).
T hough the
assum ption has b ee n th at such tropical coastal upwelling systems a re nutrient-driven, there
rem ains a less vociferous assertion that the im portant factors a re m o re complex, involving a link
betw een the physical ra te s of upwelling and the gradual developm ent o f grazing power in the
upwelling community. If so the Zooplankton form a central and sensitive link in the translation
of environm ental cha n g e into changes in the w orld’s m ajor pelagic fish stocks. Long-term C P R
m onitoring is im p o rtan t both for recognising the fact o f ecosystem change and m o re generally
for (gradually) reducing o u r ignorance o f the factors controlling trophic dynamics.
9
F14
. Distribution o f
radiocarbon in the surface waters o f the world oceans (Koblentz-MishJce e t a l., 1970);
in mg C/m3 per day; (1) < 100; (2) 100-150; (3) 150-250; (4) 250-500; (5) 5 0 0 + .
sw
200W.&
. ' - V . v ; NE
C7 1 S 0
F15
F13
r.ß 2 r n r n j t r (MralutlitM) in ih i ImJijn O cm h in
m ’ 1 1(10 d i f *
h) tn th* NE «iwMtkimn
4) tn ih i SW m nnum n.
hy t
T m n r y pn>iiu*tm*" >n ih i InOun O if j/i ,n )<•*** 1* « »ri^hr
h ' in ih r SF M m » !
V . *S
,r3 *0 M C3/0«û
1 in ‘hr 't il r
i. -t «*• m*.?*
C ase 1.3
•
A rabian Sea productivity an d the changing m o nso on
In their early attem p t fo piece-together a global m ap o f m a rin e productivity, Koblenz-M ishke
et al. (1970) show that the extent an d intensity o f prod u c tio n reaches a global m axim um in
the Indian O cean sector. F12
•
Later, improved data-sets show that within this sector, the intensity o f primary, secondary
and tertiary production all reach their regional m axim um in th e A ra b ia n Sea (se e sep arate
contributions by Cushing, Krey and Rao in Zeitschel, 1973). F13 F14 F15
•
T h e causes are unknown in detail, but production re ach e s a tem p o ra l m axim um during the
SW monsoon, reflecting so m e aspect of that p ersisten t circulation o r th e changes it induces
in the upper ocean.
•
T h e SW m onsoon seem s set to change with global warming.
Th oug h discrepancies exist
between models the IP C C Report (1990; p l 4 6 ) suggests that most models anticip ate a
strengthening o f the SW m onsoon through a strong positive cloud feedback. D e crea ses in
cloud-cover over Eurasia in su m m er enhan ce th e solar heating o f th e surface, thus increasing
the land-sea te m p e ra tu re contrast which drives th e s u m m e r m onsoon.
• .............
Sum m ary: Though we a re unsure of th e mechanism that connects th e production m axim um of
the Arabian Sea with the SW monsoon, and even less s u re of its future course, th e productive
significance o f this area is such as to justify the initiation now o f a sufficient effort in plankton
monitoring to establish the baseline against which th e effects o f clim ate ch ang e may b e detected,
and with which the m echanism of change can be und erstood .
11
F17
M ean a n n u a l d iffe re n c e *
o f (h e C O p a r tn t p r e s s u r a
b e tw e e n su rfa c e o c e a n v*ater a n d
o v e rly in g air
p C O j The v a lu e s
a>e m m ic r o a tm o s p h c r a . or a
m illio n th o f a n a tm o s p h e re a t sea
l e v e l T h e p o s it n o values ( a n d th e
h a t c h e d arcas) in d ica te th a t th e
o c e a n i$ a so u r c e o f a tm o s p h e ric
C O 4. a n d th e n e g a tiv e va lu es
in d ic a te th a t th e o c e a n ts a CO..
2 3 /- 3 5 J
300
ApCO? (u a tn )
>
200
T T O /N A S
APR IL - OCT. 1981
100
-5.UJ
Jo •4
I
IO
“ D i s t r i o u t l c n o f Che s e a - a i r pCO^ d l i i e r e n c e o o s e r v e d d u r in g c h i
T IO /N o r th A t l a n t i c Scudv P roeram in A p r i l th ro u g h O c c o o e r . 2 96 i .
N oce ch ac che p r o p o s e d 20ÛW COFS s e c t i o n p a s s e s th r o u g h o n e o f th e
JJOSC p rom in en t» lo w pCO- a r e a s c e n t e r e d arou n d 50°:.' and 20°U'. The
d a t a a r e l i s t e d i n T a k a n a sfu e t a l . (1 9 8 2 ) .
F18
Timeihrs)
C ase 1.4
•
C 0 2 draw dow n and global w arm ing
Since the 1981 T ransien t Tracers in the O c e a n (T T O ) expedition, it has been known that
the largest sea-air p C 0 2 difference in th e n orth Atlantic lies in a relatively n arro w band (300
km wide or so) along the eastern m argin o f th e East G reenland ice from C a p e Farewell to
Spitsbergen. T here, Takahashi shows A C 0 2 values as low as -140 p a tm in sum m er. F16
•
T h e annual m ean A p C 0 2 values estim ated for this zone are naturally lower (-37 in the large
region which includes this zone) but a r e nevertheless of Atlantic - and th e re fo re of global
significance, since much of the hem ispheric drawdown of C 0 2 occurs in th e north Atlantic.
F17
•
T hese T T O estim ates may well u n d e re s tim a te the im portance of this z o n e .
O n RV
C IR O L A N A in J u n e 1988, A p C 0 2 values o f -230 units w ere e n cou ntered along the ice edge
north-west o f Iceland, the largest difference from atm ospheric concentrations (implying the
largest C 0 2 draw dow n) yet observed anywhere. F 18
•
Several factors peculiar to this zone a p p e a r to be responsible, and no n e seem to be of
particularly restricted distribution.
T h e abru pt onset o f biological spring as th e ice cover rolls back. A t each point between
the seasonal max and min ice limits, th e retreating ice-margin brings an instantaneous
increase in illumination and a rapid increase in water column stability (through ice-melt).
This disrupts th e link with grazers, perm ittin g a large am plitude bloom with a massive
C 0 2 drawdown until grazing control b eco m es re-established. T h e lag in the mobilisation
of grazing pow er is much g reater in th e Arctic, where Calanus spawn in response to the
bloom, than in the Antarctic, w here krill-swarms overwinter und er the ice-cover entering
m eltw ater zones during spring, anticipating the bloom and there fore immediately able
to control production. T h e am plitude o f th e bloom, the degree o f n utrient depletion and
th e C 0 2 drawdown in Arctic and A n ta r c d c all reflect this differential delay.
In conjunction with this "biological pum p" the rapid cooling of surface waters as they
circulate in towards the ice margin acts as a "chemical pump" for the drawdown of C 0 2
since, for a given piston velocity (pro portio nal to windspeed), the inward flux of C 0 2 is
prop ortion al to A p C 0 2 which is a stro ng function of tem perature.
•
T h e factors which p ro m o te such a radical drawdown are all peculiar to the marginal ice zone
(i.e. they all req uire the presence of ice) an d although similarly-large A p C 0 2 values are now
being re p o rte d from the seas bordering A ntarctica (Karl et al., 1991), the narrow strip of
thin ice b o rdering East G reenland must b e m o re sensitive to global w arm ing than the bulk
of the Arctic o r A ntarctic ice sheets.
•
In addition to th e waters around G re en lan d , the north-east Atlantic betw een about
55°-63°N an d out to about 20° W may also serve as a locally-enhanced C 0 2 sink, but for
13
Q
b
c
Tolal P h y l o p t a n k l o n
P s e u d o c a la n u s elongatus
C alanus helgolandicus
60
60
60
55
55
55
50
50
50
45
45
45
40
40
40
35
35
35
F19
Mean m onthly plankton abundance (solid lines) and sea surface tem perature (dashed lines)
versus latitude for a meridional strip o f the NE Atlantic. For details, see Colebrook, 1991.
Thalassiothrix longissim a
27
Thalassiosira spp.
12
J F
Months
M
AM
J J
AS
0
NO
Months
Seasonal cycl es of abundance, d at a from the CPR survey, of t he diatoms
T h a la s s io th r ix longissim a and T h a la ssio sir a spp. south of Greenland
( s o l i d l i n e s ) compared with t h e open A t l a n t i c t o 50’N. For both s pe ci es
t h e peak of the seasonal c y c le In Greenland waters I s about four times
t h a t In t he open ocean.
14
different reasons (C olebrook, 1979, 1982, 1991).
T h e C P R survey ten ds to show an
en h a n ced algal biomass n o rth o f 55° N in spring and early sum m er. F 19a
W hile this may be an arte fac t o f the fixed d epth of C P R sampling, it may also reflect some
local relaxation of grazing control.
In th e south the copepod C alanus helgolandicus can
overw inter in sufficient n u m b ers to increase in p hase with the p hytoplankton but at about
50° N it is approaching th e n o rtherly limit o f its distribution. (F19c) C alanus finm archicus
ten d s not to b ecom e d o m in a n t until > 60°N in this sector. Between 50°N and 60°N the
d o m in an t sum m er co p e pod is Pseudocalanus elongatus but the overwintering stocks a re such
th at it does not reach its seasonal p e a k until J u n e and July, towards th e en d of the
phytoplankton bloom. F 19b
• .............
S u m m a ry
A ltho ugh the ice m igration z o n e o f the Arctic is of limited extent, it results in extrem e C 0 2
drawdown. Even by the available evidence, this zone app ears to have global significance as a
C 0 2 sink and the chances a r e th at its role as a sink has been und erestim ated . A rapid onset
o f biological spring as the A rctic ice re tre a ts is followed by only a sluggish developm ent of
grazing p ressure perm itting an excessive algal biomass and an extrem e C 0 2 drawdown to
develop in the interim. T h e s e processes and this drawdown are sensitive to any lessening or loss
o f E ast G re en lan d marginal ice through climatic change.
A com plex and prolonged
p l a n k t o n i c / p C 0 2 survey is re q u ire d to integrate the present drawdown during the whole
spac e-tim e dom ain occupied by th e westward re treat o f the ice margin and th e northw ard march
o f production. This assessm ent will d e te rm in e the scale of the potential ch an ge to the global
sink o f C 0 2 but it already a p p e a rs evident that it will act via a change in the effectiveness of
Zooplankton grazing. R e-deploym ent o f the long-established C P R "G" ro u te to Sou th G reenland
will b e of value since a greatly-amplified production is also observed off C a p e Farewell but
m o n ito rin g for such changes can only be effectively conducted via regular R / V and S.O.O. tracks
alon g and norm al to the ice zone.
T h e auto nom ou s hull-mounted p C 0 2 sensor under
dev e lo p m e n t by P M L /M A F F will be essential ancillary equipment.
It is clear that the processes involved in the C 0 2 sink o f th e NE A tlantic a re qu ite different to
th o se off G reenland, related to th e range a n d overwintering strategies o f the d o m in an t grazers.
M on ito rin g o f changes in this z o n e will be much m ore easily addressed by th e conventional C P R
co verage once that becom es re-established in the N orth Atlantic.
15
F23
F21
5
140
i.
• 14
71*
3
o
i—
11 0
<
170« -17 SS t
2
100
U-l
UJ
Ap r 1
F i g u r e 2 .1 5 . Tim e o f m axim um o c c u rre n c e o f Cofanur
/ïnm arc/iicus c o p e p o d itc stag e I >crsu$ tem p e ra tu re
0
0
10
20
30
C O N C E N T R A T I O N OF NAUP LI I (Cl
Relation between the feeding ratio and the nauplii
corn entrât ion for three conditions of turbulence
fron low ( 1 ) to high ( .i J , (Sundby and Fossum 1 9 8 9 ) .
variable
advection
variable
ascent
LARVAE/M3
F24
F ig u re 2 .8 . Under extremely calm
wind conditions (le ft), the larvae
arc able lo show vertical migration.
Under l e s calm conditions, the lar­
vae are m ore evenly distributed
( r ig h t) . (From E lle rtsen i t ol.,
1984.)
F22
16
50
C ase 1.5
•
C od and C lim ate
A century of fishery investigations has identified the interactions betw een Zooplankton
(particularly copepods) and larval cod as the p rim e unknown in d eterm in in g subsequent
recruitm ent.
A range of factors control the efficiency o f this interaction.
(Illustrated
opposite):
•
W hile cod tend to b e fixed in their tim e of spawning within 10 days o r so (C ushing and
Dickson, 1976), th e re is a rem arkab le d ep e n d e n c e of the m axim um occurrence of C
fm n m archicus cop epo dite stage I on tem p eratu re. Ellertsen et al, 1990 conclude (p32) that
"the te m p e ra tu re d e p e n d e n t spawning o f C. fm nm archicus found in Lofoten, causing a delay
in spawning o f about 1.5 m onths in th e coldest y ear (1981) co m p ared to th e w a rm est (1960)
may be the most im portant process to cause variable larval survival". F21
•
T h e relationship betw een the time o f ascent o f overwintering stages from d e e p w ater and
the onset of winds favouring their advection on to th e shelf is a second key control on the
"match" of cod and C alanus (Skjoldal, 1991). F22
•
O nce p re sen t in the sam e location the key time-varying factor controlling th eir interaction
is wind-induced turbulence which (up to a certain level) can increase plankton contact rates
(Rothschild and Osborn,
1988; Sundby and Fossum, 1989), or alternatively mix-out
high-concentration patches and layers and p e r tu r b both th e vertical m igration and the
concentration of cod larvae (Ellertsen et al, 1984). F23 F24
S um m a ry . T hough th e circum stances which control th e interaction of larval cod a n d copepods
will differ in detail from o n e stock and region to another, th e principal com m o n thrust of the
In tern atio nal C od and C lim ate p rogram m e is agreed to b e the investigation o f C alanu s dynamics
- namely the time-varying balance between their roles as p re d a to rs and prey which determ ines
their production and availability, as well as th e time-varying physical factors which control their
advection from deep w ater o nto the shelf. T h e ro utine multi-year op eratio n o f C P R and U O R
in the relevant season and at a range of selected sites would be an ideal m ean s o f providing
basic but essential inform ation on interannual changes in the space-tim e distribution o f Calanus
concentration, in support o f regional process studies o f Calanus dynamics.
17
C) F ritillaria p e l l u c i d a
0
5.0
B) P a r a c a l a n u s p a r v u s
2000
m'
Night
F 26
Depth
Filtration rate
(ml/ind/d)
E ) O ik opleu ra r u f e s c e n s
D) C t e n o c a l a n u s v a n u s
1000
% gut fullness
G. layer
outside
G. layer
outside
Paracalanus parvus
4.4
8.6
6.2
19.4
Acartia tonsa
1.0
2.0
3.8
14.6
Calanus pacificus
1.5
8.4
9.2
27.0
Ctenocalanus vanus
1.4
2.6
6.7
7.2
Only 4.2% of all herbivores sampled belonged to
Zooplankton groups that did not exhibit the patterns of
avoidance behaviour implied by the distributions
illustrated.
G) T o t a l H e r b i v o r e s
4000
F25
F ) C a l a n u s p a c i f ic u s î ?
2 0i 0
m3
Fiedler: Avoidance of Gymnodinium splendens
C ase 1.6
•
A bnorm al plankton blooms, and avoidance bv grazers
A recent C an adian rep ort by Frank, Perry, D rin k w a ter and Lear (1988) is typical of many
reviews in anticipating that global w arm ing in t e m p e r a te and subarctic w aters may act to
favour com po nen ts o f the sum m er plankton, particularly the dinoflagellates:
"Associated with a doubling of atm ospheric C 0 2 is increased vertical stratification of the
water column d ue to higher freshwater discharge, higher te m p eratu res and lower winds....
T h e net effect o f increased water column stratification would shift th e growth advantage
from large diatom s to smaller (5-25 p m ) dinoflagellates and microflagellates that .... are
better able to m aintain their vertical position in a stratified w ater colum n and utilise
nutrients effectively at low concentrations.... M ain ten a n ce of an annual tim e-series of the
seasonal diatom: dinoflagellate ratio in co n tinen tal shelf waters could provide an early
warning signal for significant environm ental changes"...
•
However, su m m er is also the season when nu trien t limitation of algal growth is likely to be
at its most widespread, and therefore when changes in anthropogenic n u trien t inputs are
likely to have their maximal effect on the plankton. F o r this reason a s u m m e r increase in
dinoflagellate bloom prevalence is also an expected result of a n thropogenic eutrophication
in coastal waters.
T hu s the sam e relative shift in the comunity stru ctu re o f the sum m er
plankton is expected for both climatic and an th rop ogenic reasons.
•
W e envisage 2 roles for a plankton surveillance system in m onitoring for this particular
change in the health o f the ocean.
First it should inform us objectively w hether the
prevalence, timing or am plitude of a particular nuisance bloom has changed over the years
(i.e. not just the result of m o re people looking; Le Fevre, 1979; M o m m aerts, 1986). The
C P R collects only som e o f the dinoflagellates quantitatively (e.g. C eratia), and although a
useful proxy m easure is available for P haeocystis, it would require som e future developm ent
to m onitor effectively for small naked flagellates.
•
O n e of the key unresolved issues relating to th e dynamics o f abnormal algal blooms concerns
avoidance by Zooplankton, and here we envisage a support role for the existing C P R system,
particularly one with depth-resolving capabilities such as the LJOR.
•
Though avoidance by grazers has tended to be discounted as a
prim ary control on the
am plitude or prevalence of noxious algal bloom s - com pared, for example with their nutrient
relations and eu trophication - Fiedler (1982) and o th ers have shown that it may be of
widespread and fundam ental importance. T h e G ym nodinium case, oppo site shows that the
avoidance is plainly intentional, that the vast m ajority of the grazers took part, and that the
effect is c o m po und ed by a reduced grazing efficiency on the part of herbivores which failed
to avoid the G ym nodinium layer. F25 F26 F27
19
O ikopleura
0.25
E. G. sp len d e n s F. G. stages o f division
0.25
0.25
Paracalanus
A cartia
F27
20
•
T h e r e is less inform ation on the num ber o f noxious algal species which p ro v o k e avoidance
but it is likely to be high (see Huntley et al., 1986, 1987; Sykes and H untley, 1987). We
glimpse its effect in the Chrysochromulina re p o rt (Skjoldal and Dundas, 1989, p41), and in
a very recent P M L contract report, Joint, Davies and Harris (1991, unpublished ms) present
Irish Sea results which "dem onstrate that th e presence of Phaeocystis can h ave a negative
effect on co p e p od feeding and production, and this may contribute to th e developm ent of
the Phaeocystis bloom by reduced grazing mortality and decreased co p e p o d reproduction,
and hence grazer abundance".
•
W herever the grazing pressure is significantly re duced or suspended, it m ust fundamentally
shift the role of nutrients from o ne of potential trigger (initiating the b loo m ) to o ne where
nutrient depletion becomes the only available m ean s of bringing th e bloom to an end.
S um m ary. T h e re is a general expectation that in th e populated coastal zones, a continued
increase in nutrient inputs will sooner or later lead to eutrophication in a r e a s of reduced
dispersion and hence to an increased am plitude, an altered toxicity and an in creased prevalence
of noxious algal bloom s and the deoxygenation effects that they may generate. W e do not even
have in place an a d e q u a te and objective m onitoring system to establish th e fact of change
unambiguously.
T h ou gh this may seem an algal problem, many noxious blo om s owe their
towering am plitude not merely to nutrient supply, but to relaxation of grazing p re s su re through
avoidance by grazers. E laboration of the interplay betw een phytoplankton, Zooplankton and the
changing physical environm ent is crucial to un derstanding the problem and crucial to the
application of ap p ro p ria te rather than irrelevant or ineffective coun term easures.
The CPR
would be used to m o n ito r for the fact of change, would hopefully be developed o r com plem ented
to m onitor dinoflagellates m ore effectively, and act in support of process studies of finite
duration.
21
'•
(
O f \ 1 ili'M S
C orycaeus
tIMl. ’/ f i M
___ f ”
•iw i i; m I
k
I- >• k
k i l . '* « ' < .
anglicus
• ••
1ft I
<
1 I' '.J
r I y II
tears
AREA
S td .d ev iatio n s
A RE A
C5
AREA
BA
AREA
C4
A RE A
C2
AREA
BI
AREA
Cl
T9 4 B lo
B4
B5
eo
^ L
u l
i
A
i
l
;
M
m
B2
i
N
/
C5
C2
:
102
AREA
D5
AREA
A RE A
DA
D2
AREA
05
01
D4
il r ya
.1
/ƒ 1 i l .
rû
J
50
60
70
I
»
A
»
i
80
H g . 7 . T r e n d s o f z o o p la n M o n a b u n d jn c e in 12 C P R S l a n d j r d A rea'« a ro u n d th e B ritis h Isle s
L o c a tio n s a r e s h o w n in h e u r e 2b
20
F30
C1
1969
C ase 1.7
Large-scale ro u tin e survey
In many o f the above cases, the role of the C P R has been to act in support o f process studies
in Zooplankton dynamics which a re o f finite duration and extent.
T h e r e rem ains a need,
nevertheless for the long-established C P R role in large-scale routine survey, and that need is
growing:
•
At the tim e of its inception, 60 years ago, the concept which m otivated th e C P R was o ne of
establishing a baseline against which anthropogenic impacts might later be detected.
S ubsequent experience has shown that no such fixed planktonic baseline exists, but a
derivative of the concept continues to be of value in two main ways.
As an "alarm bell". If, for the concept of a rigid baseline, we substitute the concept of
a norm al range o f variation, it rem ains of considerable practical value to be alerted to
any grossly ab n o rm a l behaviour in the plankton. T h e annual fluctuations in abundance
of Thalassiothrix. M etridia and C orycaeus in th e N orth Sea over 4 decades m ak e an
obvious case in point. T hought th ere is no dynamical inform ation in such a trend, it can
frequently b e interp re ted as to cause, or justify the mobilisation o f an ad e q u ate
investigative effort. F28 F29
As a "control". T h e Coastal O cean Observing System o f th e IOC , U N E P and W M O
(C O O S ) differs from its Global O rn O bserving System (G O O S ) in at least one
im portant respect.
It is attem p tin g to identify a climatic signal o f maximum
socio-economic im p ortance against a shelf-seas background o f m axim um anthropogenic
noise. T h e nascent O cean Margin Exchange Experim ent (O M E X ) o f C E C has a similar
aim and problem . Though the limitations o f the available observing effort will force
these studies to focus on selected cross-shelf transects (see e.g., IO C 1991a), it is
nevertheless im p ortant that they retain pan-oceanic coverage as a control. T h e fact that
the sam e post-war tren d has d om in ated Zooplankton ab und a n ce in all 12 C P R statistical
areas around the U K including the eastern Atlantic, not only suggests th e trend is real
but confirms a non-anthropogenic cause. F30
•
Winkling dynamics out o f satellite imagery is a fu rth e r role for large-scale, routine C P R
survey. SEA W IFS, A D E O S and o th er new ocean colour satellites a r e d u e for launch in
1993-95. Only they can m ake the leap to near-global covei age of plankton by providing high
quality pigment discrim ination data in near-real-tim e. In the past they have successively (via
C Z C S ) pieced to g eth er oceanic and global m aps o f phytoplankton standing stock; C Z C S
data has shown the potential to discrim inate phaeocystis from d iatom bloom s using relatively
c ru de 3-band co m p arisons (albeit from a strong shelf-seas signal); Platt and S athyendranath
(1988) later showed how the sam e colour data might yield net prim ary production. T h e next
step requires extensive regular continuous plankton monitoring.
A dding Zooplankton
biomass to satellite net prim ary production provides grazing mortality and hence a m easure
o f app a ren t phytoplankton growth ra te that can be m atch ed to the distribution of light, wind
turbulence, nutrients o r any oth er production variable.
23
2.0
1.5
.0
0 .5
•c
0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Months
F31
The s e a s o n a l c y c l e o f t h e p l a n k t o n o f t h e I r i s h Sea I s m a r k e d l y
d i f f e r e n t fr om a d j a c e n t a r e a s . The g r a p h s , b a s e d on d a t a fr om t h e CFR
s u r v e y , show t h a t c om pa r ed w i t h t h e c e n t r a l N o r t h Sea, t h e peak o f t h e
s p r i n g bl oom I n t h e I r i s h Sea i s a b o u t two m o n t h s l a t e r and t h e aut umn
peak i s abse n t.
24
•
R egional m odel validation. As B ran d e r points out in his p ro p o sal to m odel th e large m arin e
ecosystem o f th e Irish Sea
"It is very unlikely th a t re lia b le p re d ic tio n s o f th e effects of
physics on recru itm en t and fish p roduction can b e o b tain ed w ithout m odels which
inco rporate som e o f th e intervening planktonic processes". T h e re is cu rren tly co n siderable
in tern ational in tere st in developing and in co rp o ratin g regional m odels o f copepod
production. Only regular ro u tin e survey by som e form o f co n tin u o u s p lan k to n re c o rd e r can
provide the validation for such m odels. F31
S um m ary.
T h ere ap p e ars to be little lessening o f th e n eed fo r th e extensive ro u tin e
zoogeographic survey d ata th at form s th e trad itio n al p ro d u c t o f th e C P R survey.
O n th e
co n trary its m ulti-decadal tim e-series a re a principal m e a n s o f recognising w hat is grossly
abnorm al in the observed continuum of planktonic v ariatio n ; it will pro v id e th e oceanic ’co n tro l’
against which anthropogenic changes on th e shelf can b e gauged, it has p o te n tia l in eliciting
plankton dynam ics from satellite im agery and it could serv e to v alid ate th e co p ep o d m odels
which form an increasingly im p o rtan t com ponent o f large m a rin e ecosystem m odels.
25
2. T h e "D eveloping C PR " program m e
T hese case stu d ies a re chosen to illustrate a ran g e o f global problem s in which w e expect a
particular an d significant ecosystem resp o n se a n d /o r feedback. In each case the Zooplankton
ap p ear to have a d efin ab le role in m ediating th e resp o n se o r controlling th e feedback. T h at role
differs from ca se to case and, to be realistic, th e role w e assign th e C P R in m onitoring for th ese
changes is ca se-d e p en d en t also.
The reason w e assign a role to the C P R at all is threefold. F irst, it is th e only system currently
available for w id esp read , long-term , routine, cheap, plan k to n survey. Second, it does a good job
of m o n ito ring th e Zooplankton. T hird it has already established th e p attern s o f spatial and
tem poral ch ange in th e Zooplankton in o n e o cean a rea (th e N orth A tlantic) over m any decades.
N evertheless, like every o th er system th at w e can envisage, th e re a re lim itations to w hat the
p resen t C P R in stru m en t can do. T h e in stru m en t which form s th e w orkhorse o f th e A tlantic
survey o p e ra te s at fixed depth (10 m), and though its ’silks’ a re co u n ted to 393 se p a ra te species
or entities, it h as u p p e r and lower bounds for q u an titativ e collection which are set by th e size
and fragility o f th e species concerned.
F requently, - w h eth er w e a re talking about large
ctenophores as d o m in an t predators, o r sm all dinoflagellates as ’n u isan ce’ species - o u r in terests
lie outsid e th e se bounds.
For this reason, w hen exploring new a reas for p lan k to n m onitoring o r even when re-occupying
old routes, w e should undoubtedly use a mix o f p re se n t techniques to assess the zoogeography,
to establish th e ’w aterco lu m n ’ re p resen tativ en ess o f th e changes th at the C P R observes at
fixed-depth an d to assess those classes o f plan k to n th at a re not well - o r quantitatively m easured by th e C P R . C oupled with th e C P R , th e undulating oceanographic re co rd er (U O R ),
with th e ran g e o f so p h isticated optics and o th e r sensors th at it now carries (A iken and Bellan,
1990) would m ak e a pow erful com bination, able to m eet both th ese aim s, and with som e sensors
(e.g. bio lu m inescence) providing useful proxy d ata on th e p resen ce o f certain dinoflagellates
even w hen th e p lan k to n them selves elude q u an titativ e preservation.
Thus in d efining a global role for the C P R w e a re really establishing such a role for continuous
plankton re c o rd e rs in general, albeit with th e existing C P R survey system as its m ain p ro p and
stay for th e p re se n t an d im m ediate future.
In th e longer term th e re is equally no reason th at w e should retain th e sam e system forever.
In th e o u tlook p erio d (say 5 years) w e can envisage th e availability o f a w ide range o f pow erful
new technologies, ranging from the m ulti-frequency acoustic (T raco r C orp; o r Ja ffe ’s SIO
system ), th e high resolution o p tic/aco u stic (K ils’ IF M K system ), and th e laser-holographic (th e
Johns H o p kins system ) to the size-frequency distributions provided by the O ptical P lankton
C o u n ter o f H e rm a n , B IO (Focal Technologies, N.S.).
26
Like th e original C P R system , all o f these new m eth o d s will have th eir good and bad features,
th e ir d ifferent ranges o r volum es sam pled, th e ir relative degrees o f m yopia, th e ir u p p er and
low er bo u n ds o f species discrim ination, th eir own im peratives set by d ata-rate, d ata volum e, data
tran sfer, technical su p p o rt and analytical effort - an d h ence their own individual mix o f cost and
effectiveness.
O n e o r a com bination o f th ese can b e expected to tak e over th e principal
m o n ito rin g effort in th e longer-term but only a fte r p arallel use has d eterm in ed th eir relationship
to th e tim e-series provided by the past and p re se n t C P R survey. A nd although sophistication
can bring great benefits, it m ust be provided at low cost and high reliability b e fo re it can be
deployed for anything o th e r than local and tem p o ra ry coverage. In "m onitoring th e health of
th e ocean" we a re re ferrin g to the sustained m o nitoring o f a global scatter o f large-regional
ecosystem s at reasonably high frequency ( ~ m onthly), and at an accessible cost.
• .............
S um m ary. In seeking a m ore-global deploym ent o f C P R m onitoring, th e re is no req u irem en t
to regard th e existing instrum ent eith er as the sole o r th e unchanging vehicle. A mix o f present
day techniques is essential w hen exploring new a re a s for plankton m onitoring (w e suggest C PR
and U O R in com bination), and th ere will be a continuing need to seek and im plem ent new er
m ethods, w hen th eir cost-effectiveness exceeds th at o f th e present system in m eeting a particular
purpose.
T h e re will be two tricks to all o f this how ever, both o f them difficult. T h e first challenge will
b e to m ap the way forw ard from the p resen t technology to som e fu tu re technology w ithout
losing th e m ain accum ulated asset - the m ultidecadal tim e-series.
It will b e no advance to
m o n ito r th e health o f th e ocean using a set o f tech n iq u es which a re not co m p arab le from one
location to a n o th er and which vary uncertainly w ith tim e. T he second challenge will be to fit
’p ro cess’ to large-scale m onitoring in som e co m fo rm ab le way. T he tren d s identified by th e latter
a re not necessarily identifiable as to cause w ithout investigation o f the underlying dynam ics; the
local com plexities o f process studies re q u ire th e context o f m onitoring to establish their
space-tim e validity. D esp ite this, it will not be a trivial task to extrapolate how th e dynam ics of
a co pepod population (say) - investigated by th e trad itio n al m eans o f laboratory incubation or
L agrangian patch-follow ing - can be used to in te rp re t th e long-term fluctuations o f an en tire
p o pulation on th e scale o f a large m arine ecosystem .
U n d erstan d ing, ra th e r than m erely m onitoring th e health o f the ocean will d ep en d on m eeting
both th ese challenges.
27
3.
C u rre n t m aio r ecosystem studies
T h e fo u r exam ples briefly described below a r e selected for th e ir global scope an d for th e
fu n d a m e n tal differen ces in th eir approach. T h e L M E concept relies on d ev elo p in g a know ledge
o f th e e n tire ecosystem and the principal fo rces th a t drive them in a global sc a tte r o f differing
o cean regions. T h e G O O S p ro g ram m e is th e only observing effort th a t co m b in es a full ran g e
o f physical an d biological observation w ith a truly global coverage.
T h e In te g ra te d A tlan tic
P ro ject o f th e C E C is based on perh ap s th e m ost intensive study o f physical, biological and
sed im en tological tran sfers across an ocean b oundary, and th e In te rn a tio n a l G L O B E C initiative
will re p re se n t th e m ost intensive study ever in th e neglected field o f Z ooplankton dynam ics.
3.1 T h e L M E C o n cep t
L arg e M a rin e Ecosystem s a re extensive regions, typically over 200,000 km 2, each w ith a
distinctive hydrography, topography, productivity, and ecological stru ctu re . It is ce n tral to th e
L M E C o n cep t th a t in each such region th e re is a d e f n a b le set o f fo rces w hich drive th e
principal ch an g es in th e living m arine re so u rc e s and thus d e te rm in e th e ir m an ag em en t. T h e
ra tio n a le o f studying a w ide lan g e o f such re g io n s hinges on th e idea th a i ih a principal ’driving
fo rces’ d iffer from o n e L M E to an o th er, a n d th a t progress in th e re se a rc h a n d m an ag em en t o f
th ese m a rin e reso u rces and their yields can b e e n h a n ced by co m p arin g th e m u ltip le stab le states
th at d ev elo p differently in each, according to th e im posed stress on th e system , and th e feed
back o f th e system on th e stress.
T h u s th e L M E concept relies upon th e identification, study a n d co m p ariso n o f a
globally-extensive set o f differing unit regions. In co n tra st to th e tra d itio n a l p re o ccu p a tio n w ith
single-species stock assessm ents, each L M E aim s to e la b o ra te th e e n tire tro p h ic chain from
p lan k to n to fish an d cetaceans, since e n v iro n m e n ta l an d an th ro p o g e n ic p e rtu rb a tio n s o f a given
L M E a re likely to b e p artitio n ed th ro u g h o u t th e food chain in o n e fo rm o r an o th er, w ith
ch anges rippling through th e system as o n e d o m in an t species is affec te d an d succeeded by
an o th er.
S ince th e s e driving p e rtu rb atio n s m ay b e o f n atu ra l o r an th ro p o g e n ic o rigin th e stru c tu re o f
each stu d y m ust have ad e q u a te scope to reco g n ise and cover bo th clim atic effects, (e.g. changes
in w a te r colum n stability, cu rren t structure, clo u d cover, etc) an d th o se d u e to m an, (e.g. effects
o f n u trie n t loadings on dinoflagellate bloom tim ing, am plitude, p re v alen ce o r toxicity).
H ow ever, th e ecosystem is never static an d even its planktonic c o m p o n e n t can b e show n to
exhibit a co n tin u u m o f change over a w id er ran g e o f tim e a n d sp a c e scales.
T hus th e
reco g n ition o f ch ange in itself is not enough. It m ust b e sufficiently p ro tra c te d to recognise th e
’n o rm a l’ ra n g e o f variation in th e planktonic co m m unity (say) against w hich th e grossly abnorm al
can b e id en tified and, p erh ap s attrib u ted as to cause. A nd it m ust b e sufficiently ’ro u tin e ’ to
o v erco m e th e pro b lem - en c o u n te red in m any o f th e m o re ’ta rg e tte d ’ observ in g effo rts - th at th e
p rev alen ce o f th e change you wish to m e a s u re becom es c o rre la te d w ith th e am o u n t or
effectiveness o f th e observing effort deployed (L e F evre, 1979; M o m m aerts, 1986).
F ig u re 32 illustrates th e global sp re ad o f th e L M E ’s identified fo r study (from S herm an ,
1991). A lth o u g h each study will dem an d intensive p ro c ess-o rien ta te d re se a rc h over an e n tire
28
L Â IR «
MARANI
>YSTi
Ni
vO
F 32
1
OYASHIO CURRENT ECOSYSTEM
2
3
4
5
KUROSHIO CURRENT ECOSYSTEM
(0 )
(0 )
YELLOW SEA ECOSYSTEM
(X)
(X)
(X)
GULF O F THAILAND ECOSYSTEM
GREAT BARRIER REEF ECOSYSTEM
6
TASM AN SEA ECOSYSTEM
7
INSULAR PACIFIC ECOSYSTEM
(+ )
8
EAST BERING SEA ECOSYSTEM
(+ )
9
GULF OF ALASKA ECOSYSTEM
(+ )
(+ )
10
CALIFORNIA CURREN T ECOSYSTEM
(0 )
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
HUM BOLDT CURRENT ECOSYSTEM
(0 )
ANTARCTIC ECOSYSTEM
{+ )
GULF O F MEXICO ECOSYSTEM
(+ )
SOU THEAST CONTINENTAL SH EL F ECO SYSTEM ( + )
N ORTH EAST CONTINENTAL S H EL F ECOSYSTEM (
EAST GREENLAND SEA ECOSYSTEM
(+ )
BARENTS SEA ECOSYSTEM
(0 )
BALTIC SEA ECOSYSTEM
(P)
NORTH SEA ECOSYSTEM
(+ )
IBERIAN COASTAL ECOSYSTEM
GULF O F GUINEA ECOSYSTEM
(0 )
(+ )
BENGUELA CU R REN T ECOSYSTEM
(0 )
X)
ecosystem , th e re is an obvious n eed for th e large-scale, long-term , routine, context th at th e C P R
(o r its derivatives) is capable o f providing in m ost o f th ese system s.
T h ese studies a re lent urgency by the fact th at as th e clim atic an d an th ro p o g en ic
p e rtu rb a tio n s grow, o u r ability to d efin e the ’n orm al’ ran g e o f v ariatio n an d h ence o u r ability
to ap p re c ia te th e am plitude o f th e effect, will both dim inish.
3.2 G O O S /C O O S o f IO C -U N E P -W M O
T h e objective of th e G lobal O cean O bserving System (G O O S ) is to p ro v id e th e d a ta and
info rm ation req u ired from coastal and oceanic regions, including th e enclosed an d sem i-enclosed
seas, to address issues related to changes in regional an d global en v iro n m en ts (IO C ,
1990,1991b).
T h e system involves long-term system atic m easu rem en ts o f physical, chem ical and biological
p ro p e rtie s o f th e W orld ocean, analysis and distribution o f d ata and d ata p ro d u c ts according to
a globally-coordinated scientifically-based strategy in o rd e r to su p p o rt th e evaluation o f n atu ral
and h u m an-induced environm ental an d clim ate changes and re la ted variabilities an d for th e
long-range forecasting o f w e ath er an d clim ate over th e w hole planet, as well as regional
p red ictio n s o f ocean conditions for fisheries, coastal zone m anagem ent, an d pollution studies,
for u se by M em ber States.
T h e integrated, com prehensive (space- and ground-based) o cean observing system is n eed ed
to:
(i)
develop, im prove an d test predictive ocean system m odels;
(ii)
im prove th e u n d ersta n d in g o f the carbon cycle;
(iii)
im prove th e capacity to assess the effects o f global change at regional scales on
intensively exploited an d n atu ral oceanic ecosystem s and coastal zones;
(iv)
provide data for th e assessm ent o f th e state o f th e h ealth o f th e m arin e environm en t
and its resources.
A s basic concepts th e G O O S will consist o f an internationally ag reed schem e for data
collection (m easu rem en ts), d ata analysis, exchange o f d a ta an d d ata products, technology
dev elo p m ent and transfer, it will b e im plem ented through n atio n al facilities and services ow ned
and o p e ra te d by M em ber S ta tes o f IO C and W M O u n d e r th e lead ersh ip o f IO C an d in
co -o p eratio n with W M O and U N E P , it will re q u ire w ide in tern a tio n al particip atio n , w ith free
and tim ely d ata exchange an d will serve as the oceanic co m p o n en t o f an observing system
designed to m eet specific aspects o f global environm ent and clim atic change.
So fa r as our p resen t re p o rt is concerned th e key points o f G O O S a re its global scope, its
involvem ent of ’biology’, its sta te d reliance on developed, proven technology an d its fun d am en tal
aim o f attrib u tin g observed ch ange to its natural o r an th ro p o g e n ic cause.
T h e G O O S plan,*m oreover recognises the key im p o rtan ce o f th e in h ab ited coastal zone
w here any observing effort will b e taxed with recognising (a n d correctly attrib u tin g ) a com plex
clim atic signal against a background o f m axim um an th ro p o g en ic noise.
F o r this reason th e IO C has tak en steps to exam ine th e special re q u ire m e n ts o f a C oastal
O cean O bserving System as a subset o f G O O S. T h e first C O O S planning d o cu m en t (A non,
30
1990) not only recognises th e im portance o f establishing plankton m onitoring as p a rt o f the
G lobal O c ean O bserving System , but adds a re q u irem en t (in a Pilot S tudy) for th e long-term
C P R m o n ito rin g o f th e plankton along a range o f o cean-m argin tran sects - initially in th e N orth
A tlan tic sec to r but later extending to th e N orth Pacific (n o te th e sim ilar in tere sts of
C E C -O M E X ; section 3.3 below).
C ostings for th e G O O S p ro g ram m e have not been published. H ow ever, if it is to m eet its
key aim o f establishing, u n d er the IO C , a global ocean equivalent o f th e W orld W e a th e r W atch
o f W M O , it can be assum ed to re q u ire an equivalent scale o f funding ( ~ $2-2.5B) an d th ere fo re
to be funded by G overnm ents.
3.3 T h e integ rated A tlantic project o f th e C E C (M ast II)
Follow ing the E R O S 2000 program m e which focussed on biogeocheniical exchanges and
exchange processes at th e river-ocean boundary, and JG O F S which seeks to quantify the
tim e-varying fluxes o f carbon and o th er biogenic elem en ts in th e w ater colum n o f th e open
ocean, th e C E C a re encouraging th e design o f th e crucial ’m issing’ p ro g ram m e th at links the
co n tin en tal shelf to th e open ocean by investigating th e biological, chem ical and physical
processes which regulate th e tran sp o rt o f organics and related substances across th e ocean
m argin.
T h e eventual project will o p e ra te within the fram ew ork o f th e L O IC Z co re pro ject and will
form a co ntribution by E u ro p e an m arine science to th e IG B P, with two m ain aim s:
(i)
to assess th e role o f th e coastal environm ent as source and sink o f several critical
elem ents and co n tam in an ts associated with global change but including th e tim e-varying
an th ropogenic contribution.
(ii)
to evaluate th e socioeconom ic consequences o f global change, particularly th o se induced
by clim atic m odifications.
T hough an early ’illu stratio n ’ o f this nascent project has had a n am e - O cean M argin
E xchange E xperim ent o r O M E X - and 5 suggested foci (th e Iberian m argin, th e Biscay m argin,
th e C eltic Sea m argin, th e N orth S ea-F aro es transect an d th e so u th ern N orw egian Sea m argin)
th ese d etails a re u n im p o rtan t and m av change. T hey served m ainly to provide an initiating
regional fram ew ork aro u n d which scientific studies with com m on aim s m ight coalesce to form
a m ajo r contribution and since th e i ¡dividual pro p o sals have not yet b een subm itted, the
u ltim ate sh ap e of the w hole is unknown.
T h e key point lies in its underlying pu rp o se o f form ing an in tern atio n al, interdisciplinary,
w ell-focussed and well fu n d e d 1 study o f contrasting ocean - m argin ecosystem s aro u n d the
ea ste rn N o rth A tlantic with th e aim o f identifying - and ultim ately predicting - th e ir clim atic and
an th ro p o g en ic p ertu rb atio n s. A s such it form s an obvious com plem ent to th e IO C C O O S pilot
study, has an equal n eed to cover the planktonic ecosystem as a sensitive in d icato r fo r such
1 5-10 M ecu for the ’integrated project’ over the initial 3-year period but with possible additional
funding und er th e se p a ra te h eadings of ’supporting initiatives’ and 'technological d evelopm ent’.
31
p ertu rb ations, a n d h a s som e req u irem en t for pan-oceanic ’co n tro l’ if th e ’local-antropogenic’
signal is to b e distin g u ish ab le from th e ’global-clim atic’ in th e changes observed at th e m argin.
D ep en d in g o n w hich tran sects o f the littoral a re ultim ately selected fo r study, it is likely that
th e ’in teg rated p ro je c t’ will benefit from the m ulti-decadal d ata-set th a t the C PR survey has
already collected a n d is continuing to collect along m any o f th ese transects. T he two costings
supplied in S ection 4 a re intended to supplem ent th at coverage, an d are p resen ted as two
options. T h e first e stim ates the cost o f establishing additional C P R cover in all the suggested
O M E X sites-o f-in terest, plus an ap p ro p riate degree of offshore ’co n tro l’. T h e second alternative
anticipates th at p rim ary O M E X interest m ay be centred at th e A rm o ric an and Iberian m argin,
and re p resen ts a ’best-guess’ option for a new ro u te tailored to C E C aim s by extending th e S
ro u te from th e A rm o ric a n shelf across Biscay, around the Ib e rian Peninsula to link w ith the
M ed iterran ean study a re a o f E R O S 2000 (for which a 2nd p h ase has b een proposed).
3.4 G L O B E C o f S C O R -IO C /O S L R
T h e cen tral c o n ten tio n o f the new International G L O B E C proposal, currently n earing
com pletion, is th a t Z ooplankton population dynam ics is th e u n iq u e nexus through which the
fields o f p h y to p lan k to n production, fish recruitm ent variability, a n d environm ental o r clim atic
variation a re re la ted . A n im proved understanding o f Z ooplankton dynam ics would not only be
of fu n dam ental im p o rta n c e in its own right, but would act to co m p lem en t and support other,
existing in te rn a tio n a l initiatives such as JG O F S and W O C E.
G L O B E C , th e n h as th e im portant and urgent aim o f seeking to exam ine the contents o f the
"black box" w hich h a s h ith e rto rep resen ted the interactions o f th e Zooplankton with th eir
environm ent, p re d a to rs an d prey with special em phasis on th e links betw een physics and biology
at every scale a n d o n th e use o f new technology to assess these. O n e question is identified as
of p articu lar im p o rta n c e since it underpins the dynam ics o f th e e n tire m arine ecosystem - the
question o f w h e th e r Z ooplankton grazing o r n u trien t lim itation is th e principal control on
phytoplankton p ro d u c tio n .
H ow ever, the m ore general G L O B E C goal of understanding all
aspects o f Z ooplankton dynam ics m eans that it has a vital in tere st in each o f th e global
pro b lem -areas d esc rib ed
in cases
1.1-1.7 above, including th e effects of n atu ra l and
an thropogenic ch a n g e on th e plankton, the feedback effects o f th e plan k to n on the environm ent
and th e tran slatio n o f environm ental change into variations in fish stocks. As such it w ould
seem inevitable th a t th e C P R o r som e derivative of it has a role to play in establishing ’co n tex t’
in alm ost every asp ect o f th e G L O B E C dynam ics study.
T h e costs a n d o th e r details o f the G L O B E C plan a re not yet available.
32
Sarsia
gemmifera
2mnn
33
\v
)
2
F33
F34
F35
80
70
60
50
40
F36
34
30
20
10
io
4.
T ow ards a m ore global coverage
E ach o f th e m ajor ecosystem studies described above is of global scope. If th e C P R o r its
derivatives are to be o f m ore than local usefulness in support o f such studies, th e n it also has
to develop a m ore global scope.
R ealism how ever, req u ires that we m ove tow ards global
coverage at an acceptable ra te and cost. T his c h a p te r has the aim of identifying which global
sca tte r o f regional m onitoring efforts m ight re p re se n t the m ost cost-effective m eans of
add ressing the im portant environm ental questions using feasible routes at accessible cost.
4.1 Re-occupving th e ’tim e-series’ routes in th e N orth A tlantic and N orth Sea
Figures F33-35 describe, respectively, the distribution o f the C PR ro u te netw ork at its tim e
o f g re atest extent in th e 1970s, at its tim e o f g re atest retraction in the late 1980s, and the
beginnings o f its re-expansion in 1991. W hile it w ould b e im practicable to a tte m p t to re-work
all o f the old routes, (shipping practices change and th e O cean W eathership netw ork has all but
d isap p eared ), figure F36 rep resen ts a realistic a ttem p t to predict a necessary an d sustainable
netw ork for the C P R in the A tlantic sector. T h e ro u tes a re costed below (T able 1). In each case
th e cost qu o ted is the net annual cost o f providing d ata from that particular ro u te to the point
o f en terin g th e data set to com puter-archive, and thus includes the cost o f gear, ship support,
analysis and overhead. New and old routes a re already equipped for survey, an d th e equipm ent
is durable; the cost listed is th erefo re the long-term annual running cost alone. In th e case of
new ro u tes we list a setting-up cost in the first y ea r th at is higher (by the cost o f th e g ea r) than
th e running cost in subsequent years.
4.2 T h e M ed iterran ea n
Extension o f ro u tin e C P R survey to the M ed iterran ea n is com m ended by th re e factors: it
has a distinctive but relatively unknown planktonic com m unity; the ecosystem is alre ad y believed
to
be
suffering
from
th e
effects o f heavy popu latio n
pressure
(e u tro p h ic atio n
and
co n tam in ation), in certain locations; the C ? R is o f proven effectiveness in th ese w aters and
could be introduced quickly and at m o d erate cost.
F igure F37 and T ab le 2 illustrate the results o f a series o f four C PR tows by R V M E T E O R
betw een Suez and G ib ra lta r in May 1965.
T h ese provide an im pression o f th e range of
planktonic entities accessible to the C P R u n d er ro u tin e survey conditions, and provide basic
inform ation on the characteristics of the plankton com m unity.
•
A s expected, the p lankton was less ab u ndant than in the A tlantic o r N o rth Sea with an
average o f 24-128 co pepods p er 3 m3 co m pared with a range of 28-2300 in A tlan tic sam ples
from the sam e m onth.
•
N evertheless th e resu lts show that the plankton is sufficiently abundant for C P R survey to
be feasible (even with a W' square ap ertu re).
35
R O U T E C O STS
T A B L E 1. A T L A N T IC
N am e
R o u te
S hipping C om pany
E stim a te d annual cost f K
1st vr
S ubsequent yrs
E u ro p e a n shelf
L iverpool-D ublin
IN
B and I line
3.6
H u m b er-A b erd een
LR
9.8
A b erd een -S tavanger
M
N or C arg o Ltd
II
8.9
A b erdeen-L erw ick
A
P and O F erries
6.4
N S hields-E sbjerg
LE
D F D S (U K ) Lid
12.1
S cheldt-IIelsingborg
LG LD
C om bi Shipping
20.4
H um ber-F ! e-E sbjerg
HE
E lb e-H u m b er R oline
10.8
P lyniouth-R oscoff
PR
B rittany F erries
3.6
Ip sw ich-R otterdam
R
P and O F erries
3.2
S helf b reak tran sects ('existinc'l
Liverpool-Lisbon
IB
C u n ard -E llerm an
17.0
55°30’N 7°W -O W S LIM A
X
M et O ffice
17.0
I o f W ight-U shant
S
12.5
U sh an t-F in isterre
S
C o m m o d o re Shipping
II
12.5
Sule S kerry-62°30’N 18° VV
V
H F E im skipfelag
17.0
S h elf b reak tran sects (new)
N orw ay-O W S M IK E
T
1 C P R + 1 M ech + 1 Davit
30.7
17.0
N orth S ea-F aro es
Q
1 C P R + 1 M ech + 1 Davit
30.7
17.0
1 C P R + 2 M ech + 1 Davit
45.4
27.2
73.3
55.0
90.7
68.0
(420 m iles)
L isbon-A zores
(720 m iles)
T ran satlan tic (control lines')
D en m ark -G reen lan d
G
R oyal D anish Lines
1 C P R + 3 M ech + davit
Liverpool-N ew foundland
D
ACL
1 C P R + 3 M ech + Davit
Reykjavik-N ew foundland
N ew foundland-H alifax
Z
Ea
H F E im skipfelag
1 C P R + 2 M ech
II
H alifax-B oston
Eb
II
B arbados-U K
B
G e est Shipping Div (gear ex stock)
51.0
17.0
17.0
(i) B arry -14° W
(ii) 14° W -A zores (40° N 32° W )
(iii) A zores-35° N 39° W
T O T A L "2ND YR ON" C O S T
36
17.0
34.0
17.0
£492,000
Table 2
LIbC
aí
zooplankton
f o u n d I n R e c o r d e r s a m p l e s i n t h e M e d i t e r r a n e a n I n Kay 1 9 6 5 .
COPETOPA
35
<r
30
P ara-P seudocalanus
u>
' nJ
C lausocalanus
C eniropagcs typicus
A cartia
P teurom am m a
abdom inalis
'P. gracilis
Euchaeta m a rira
C alanus gracilis
Pa r a e n l a n u s s p p
Pseudocalanus e lo n g a tu s
Te mo ra s t y l i f e r a
Temora l o n g i c o r n i s
Aca r t 1 a s pp .
Centropages v lo la c e u »
C . c. ypi cu *
C. c h i e r c h i a e
C l J u s o c a 1a n u s s p p .
L ucicutia fla v ic o rn is
S c o lecith ricella spp.
C tenocalanus vanus
H arpacticoida
Corycaeus s p p .
0 1 thona s p p .
On c a e a s p p .
Calanus h e lg o la n d ic u s
C . y.ra cl 1 1 s
N annocalanus m inor
E ucalanus c ra s s u s
E . e l ongatus
R hincalanus n a s u tu s
F u c h irc lla m essinensis
U nde uc ha e ta plumosa
U ■ m aior
F uchaeta hebes
E . a cu ta
F. marina
Pleuromamma a b d o m i n a l i s
P g rac ilis
P. p i s e k i
P. b o r e a l i s
S. ipph l n na s p p .
H eterorhabdus 'p a p il li g e r
C andacia arm ata
C. e t h i o p i c a
C andacia s p p .
S c o l e c i t h r i x danae
Ç o p l 11 a s p p .
RADIOLARIA
Total C opepoda
F37
E uphausiacea
FORAMINIFERA
TINTINNIDAE
COELENTERATA
F > g w * 2 . T h e P lo n h to n Record«*«1 in th e M e d ite rro n e o n . T h e c h o r t » h o w * th e tro e k o f th e tow * m ode by
F . F . S . M E T E O R o n h « r retw rn from th « !n o > o n O c ro n in A p ril 1 9 6 5 . T h * h e o v y lin o * 'in d ic ó te ao m p lin g
b y n ig h t ( t u n i e f to a u n r> i« )( th e p o s itio n » o» w h ic h f i i h lo rv n o w e r« c o v g h t o r« show n by F .
fllo n g
Th« g 'o p h s sh 'w th o num ber» p r r l o n ^ l c o f » « lo o te d o r g o n is m t ln o lte r n o t« 10-m il« s o m p le s
th« ro u t« .
ANNELIDA
P o ly c h a e ta la r v a e
T o m o p te r is s p p .
CLADOCERA
E vadne s p p .
Podon s p p .
CIRRIPEDIA
OSTRACODA
ISOPODA
CAPRELLIDEA
GAMMARIDEA
HYPERIIDEA
MYSIDACEA
DECAPODA
EUPHAUSIACEA
CHAETOGNATHA
TUNICATA
L a rv acea
mollusca
T h e c o s o m a ta
P te ro tra c h e a c o ro n a ta
L a m e l l i b r a n c h i a la rv a ®
ECHINODERMATA FISH ECOS
FIS H LARVAE
la rv a e
30'
25 '
15‘
40'
35*
25*
60*
60*
- O 'l
2I82BJ
}2BI7
N O R TH
8RITISH
CO
00
SfA
$2816
ISLES
I»2jJ_
Í2IB2A
jjJîî
C om m o d o re Shipping
£25k
B Al\O F
00
5500M ariners‘ Rouleina Guide.
BISCAY
S
, ire *
45'
,iSïii
L S e a M alta Ltd
£53.5k (£35.5k)
*t> 141041
A rq d o s Ä
A ç o re s
M aersk
2x 1 /
£ 4 8 .5 k :
E llerm ans Ltd
3x
£45k
ISS
14]
30*
J
5°
P U l - i i i M T t r t i’Tvr i 1 r r T T T J - n T | r r
Meridian 0 ° o f G reenw ich
10*
15*
45'
•
T h e re ¡s a general in crease o f ab u n d an ce from east to w est, though a few species show ed
th e opposite tendency (eg P leurom am m a gracilis, E uchaeta m arina, an d C alanus gracilis).
•
•
M any o f the large co p ep o d s an d the euphausiids (m ostly E uphausia krohni) show ed very
stro n g diurnal variations in abundance, presum ed to re flect v ertical m igration since escape
from the R eco rd er (unlike slow-m oving nets) is unlikely.
th re e patches o f fish larvae w ere found.
F ig u re F38 re p resen ts an illustrative subset o f th e M e d ite rra n e a n ro u te s th a t a re currently
being form ulated into an in tern a tio n al M A ST II p ro p o sal by B ob W illiam s, P lym outh M arin e
L ab o ratory. W illiam s’ proposal envisages th e w orking o f a w id er netw ork o f ro u te s in bo th the
w estern and eastern M e d ite rra n e a n using m o re-sophisticated in stru m en ted C P R ’s an d U O R ’s
(see Section 4.6) over an intensive study p erio d o f 2-3 years; o u r costings an d o u r subset a re in
k eep in g with the intent o f th e p resen t re p o rt in indicating th e costs o f lo n g er-term m onitoring
o f few er key routes using stan d ard C P R instru m en tatio n .
A s usual, costs include co m p lete
analysis and com puter archiving:
(i)
F in isterre-M a lta , C u n ard -E llerm an Line, T rip le2, existing gear, m onthly.
,...£45k/a
(ii)
A lgeciras-G enoa, M aersk Line. D ouble. C osting includes 1 davit, 1 new C P R + 3
internal m echanism s plus tran sp o rt to and from U K . T hus an n u al costs re d u ce from
£48.5k/a in y ear o n e to
....£30.5k/a
thereafter.
(iii)
M arseille-L iv o rn o -S alern o -R eg g io C alab ria-C atan ia-M alta. S ea M alta Ltd. D ouble.
Costing includes 1 new C P R + 2 in tern al m echanism s, plus tra n s p o rt to a n d from
UK. Thus annual costs red u ce from £53.5k for m onthly o p e ra tio n in y ear o n e to
....£35.5k/a
thereafter.
T h ese costing options a re no t in com petition. In p ractice th e intensive p h a se will d e te rm in e
th e ap p ro p riate scale, type and location o f the longer term m o n ito rin g effort.
2 (i.e. three 450 mile units of tow).
39
50°
60°
70°
80°
90°
T ab le
3
ne «ani m T-» »■*'*■ocia» l» M*. IT12
tiRcruciiuni
Le.lm.» .pp (.uii «• »• WMlIitl)
74°
LLi ‘ ♦ rt
cucc-ct M
lllPHPLIItCt*
V /A. le te i Copepoda
osiucot»
□
w w um
loto! Cuphousiocea
»triiio t»
iiiatiKU
u u ro c *
n n tic ii
c iu ir u i A
76'
84'
UIVACt*
ïxieososm
nrwowjritü*»
(insAUiro^
«itera *
n titin i
mioiAjii
» « u ttc it
nieli
F39
2 3 Undinula d a r w in i
□
P l e u r o m a m m a sp p
li|.K I
1 i r i »>
40
».
4.3 A rab ian Sea
T h e justificatio n for m onitoring planktonic changes across th e global p ro d u c tio n ce n tre of
th e A rab ian S ea has b een described. T h e n eed is to lay down a system capable o f recognising
th e ecosystem effects th a t a re expected to a rise through clim atic m odulation o f the SW
m onsoon.
Two o rth o g o n al ro u tes a re selected to ad d ress this problem (see th e color m ap on th e back
o f th e faceplate), th e first running from E ast A frica to th e P ersian Gulf, th e second running
from th e G u lf to th e so u th ern tip o f India at C a p e C om orin and beyond to Sri L anka. T hese
ro u tes o ffer 3 m ain benefits. T hey use frequently-travelled and th ere fo re easily-w orked shipping
ro u tes; they tran se ct th e two m ain local p ro d u c tio n ce n tres o f th e n o rth ern A ra b ian Sea and
aro u n d C ap e C om orin; they provide both th e large-scale context and th e "open ocean" contrast
for one o f th e likely key sites o f the L arge M a rin e Ecosystem study (th e E ast A frica-Som ali
C u rre n t D o m ain ); and w e already have a sm all bu t sufficient num ber o f C P R tows from this
ro u te to confirm th e validity o f the C P R survey tech n iq u e in th ese w aters.
F igure F39 and T ab le 3 use 4 short C P R tows by R V O C EvA N O G R A PH ER in July-August
1967 to illustrate th e ran g e and abundance o f species accessible to th e C P R d u rin g th e SW
m onsoon.
C o m p ared with th e 4 tows through th e M e d ite rra n e a n (described earlier), cop ep o d abundance
w as very m uch g re a te r at 280-1300 p er 3 m 3 sam ple than the 24-128 observed in the
M ed iterran ea n , and w ere evenly distributed by d ay an d night. N um bers o f copepod species w ere
th e sam e (39) in th e M ed iterran ea n and In d ian O cean tows and, as expected, w ere very much
g re a te r in th ese w arm w a te r areas than th e 10-25 spp norm ally en co u n tered in th e cold-w ater
A tlan tic n o rth o f 50 °N (fo r exam ple). C om parison o f species com position an d ab u n d an ce with
two fu rth e r C P R lows N W o f A ustralia ap p e ars to highlight sim ilarities ra th e r th an differences
over this vast area.
T h e costs p er ro u te for th ese two key tran sects a re given below, with the following provisos:
(i) with o n e ro u te running coastw ise along th e axis o f m axim um production, an d th e o th er
providing an "open ocean" contrast betw een p ro d u c tio n m axim a (F12-15), bo th ro u tes a re of
s e p a ra te value, with little redundancy; (ii) as new ro u tes in a re m o te ocean area, costings m ust
b e reg ard ed as approxim ate; (iii) since the physical changes associated with th e m onsoon will
b e im m ense yet th e provision o f environm ental d ata will be poor, we regard it as axiom atic that
w e m ust equip th ese ro u tes with instrum ented C P R s from the o utset if we a re to in terp re t as
well as describe th e tren d s o f change in th e plankton.
O n this basis costs p e r ro u te a re as follows:
1. T h e - 1500 m iles o f each ro u te a re equivalent to th ree stan d ard 450 m ile C P R tows.
O p e ratio n al and analytical costs average £17k p e r 450 m ile tow p e r y ea r o f survey, i.e.
....£ 5 1 k
2.
R ealistic initial equipm ent costs for each ro u te a re likely to be 1 R eco rd er ex stock (zero
cost)
+
1 R eco rd er + 3 m echanism s new at an overall cost o f £18k, plus 2
41
F40
42
en vironm ental se n so r/lo g g e r packages (£26k total), plus 1 tow -davit @ £4.7k, bu t will
ap p ly to th e 1st y ear only
3.
....£48.7k
L ogistical costs o f supply a n d re tu rn a re estim ated to total a fu rth e r
....£4k
[W hile it is intended to organise a local base o f o p eratio n as soon as practicable, th e training
a n d facility costs a re likely to be at least equivalent to th e costs o f rem ote-supply fo r th e outlook
p erio d ].
T h u s th e estim ated initial cost o f in itiatin g each ro u te on a m onthly and an n u a l basis is likely
to to ta l £ 103.7k in the first year, re d u cin g by th e cost o f equipm ent to £55k in su b seq u en t years;
o p e ra tin g costs can also be re d u ced if th e decision is m ade to cover th e ro u te d u rin g th e SW
m o n so o n alone ra th e r than over th e full year, o r if only o n e ro u te is funded, o r if local analytical
su p p o rt is developed.
4.4 W est Pacific. E ast Pacific "G iant R outes"
T h e in ten tio n to cover both h e m isp h e re s in th e w est and east Pacific by m ean s o f two "giant
routes" is deliberate. T h e sp ace-tim e scale o f th e d om inant EN SO clim atic signal in th e Pacific
se c to r is known to b e vast and has b ee n associated with a greatly reduced p h y to p lan k to n biom ass
in b o th th e w estern (D a n d o n n eau , 1986) an d eastern (B arb er and C havez, 1983) Pacific; the
tre n d s o f change in the wind system w hich drive coastal upwelling a re ap p aren tly co-linear from
C alifo rn ia to P eru; and the changes observed in the ecosystem o f th e e a ste rn N orth Pacific
a p p e a r to be coherent over th e full latitu d e range. In confirm ing and extending o u r know ledge
o f th e co h e ren c e o f ecosystem ch a n g e in th e Pacific sector, th ere seem s little p oint in being
p aro ch ial in our m onitoring!
T h e two giant routes from T okyo to N oum ea and San D iego to P eru o r N o rth e rn C hile w ere
ch o se n from o th er options since they a p p e a r to cover th e principal sites o f en v iro n m en tal change
(th e K u ro sh io /W e ste rn B oundary C u rre n t an d its fluctuating m ean d er p a tte rn , th e c o re dom ain
o f th e E l N ino signal in th e w estern an d ea ste rn tropical Pacific and the key coastal upwelling
c e n tre s o f the east Pacific rim ), w hile connecting both o f th e sites o f intensive p ast ecosystem
m o n ito rin g, [i.e. T he m ultidecadal C alC O F I investigations o f the C alifornia C u rre n t, and the
F ren c h transpacific Zooplankton m o n ito rin g ro u te from P an am a to N oum ea w hich w as w orked
using th e "small plankton indicator" betw een 1977 and 1982 (D essier, 1983, 1988)].
B o th o f these ’giant ro u te s’ a re aro u n d 4000 m iles in length; to achieve a realistic balance
b etw e en cost and effectiveness w e assu m e th a t approxim ately half o f each ro u te will b e covered
by C P R , in th re e discontinous tow s o f 450, 1000 and 450 m iles using two m achines o f differing
type. T ab le 4 is used to illu strate th e m eth o d and assum ptions of costing th e T okyo-N oum ea
ro u te, (a n d it also illustrates th e item ised costing th at form s the basis o f every o th e r cost
e stim a te in this p ap er). As w ith th e A rab ian Sea exam ple (Section 4.3 above) th e expected
d o m in a n c e o f physical/clim atic co n tro ls in a region o f p o o r data-coverage im plies th e use of
in stru m e n te d C P R s on th ese ro u te s from th e o utset.
T a b le 4.
43
T h ese costs a re th e re fo re included in
T A B L E 4. N O U M E A -T O K Y O
P R O JE C T E D C O S T IN G S
R O U T E C O S T S 12 X P E R A N N U M . 2 C P R M A C H IN E S
S IL K
2 X 450 m iles = 900 m iles
1 X 1000 m iles = 1000 m iles
£C O S T
£220
2300
270
2800
T o tal
£5100 / a
T R A N S P O R T CO STS
P ly m o uth-S outham pton re tu rn p e r a n n u m
2076
P and O C o n ta in e r L ine to T okyo p e r an n u m
3674
£5750
R U N N IN G CO STS
Ship pay m ents
1080
C o m p u tin g
2000
S alaries (analysts etc)
32000
N at. Ins.
2560
S u p era n n u atio n
3200
A cco m m o dation ren tal
8000
£48840
G E A R C O S T (1st year only)
New davit, fitted
4700
1 new re c o rd e r body + 2 m echanism s
13500
2 en v iro n m en tal sensor/logging packages
26000
£44200
T O T A L p e r route, 12 to w s/y r serviced from U K
YEAR ONE
SU BSEQ U EN T YEARS
44
£103,890
£ 59,690
O p tio n s
A ltern a tiv e tra n sp o rt costings p e r annum by air to N o u m ea via Sydney (£32k) an d by air to
T okyo (£12k) rejected as to o costly. But alternative shipping cost U K -N oum ea via B ank Line
look attra ctiv e (£5.8k for 12 re tu rn trips / a ) and o th e r altern ativ es by P & O C L to N oum ea via
A u stralia an d by C om pagnie G e n eral M aritim e to N oum ea a re u n d er investigation.
T hus, th e cost o f instituting full C P R coverage 12 tim es p e r y ear over h alf th e route-length
am o u n ts to £104k p e r ro u te in both the west and east Pacific in th e first y ea r bu t reducing by
th e cost o f new g ear (£44.2k p e r ro u te) in 2nd and su b sequent years to £60k p e r ro u te.
Since th e eventual aim is to o p e ra te and analyse each ro u te locally, th e above should be
re g ard e d as realistic initial costs which will red u ce as soon as a local analytical an d servicing
effo rt can b e m obilised. T h e feasibility o f establishing local analysis ce n tres at a ra n g e o f sites
is cu rren tly u n d e r investigation.
4.5 S o u th ern O cean
Since 1990, th e Krill R esearch G ro u p o f th e A u stra lian A n tarctic D ivision in K ingston,
T asm an ia, have o p e ra te d 2 stan d ard C P R units from two research vessels an d o n e supply ship
in a S o u th ern O cean p ro g ram m e designed to assess th e distribution, relative a b u n d a n ce and
d ev elopm ent o f the larvae o f A ntarctic krill {Euphausia superba). F irst surveys in th e H eard
Island-K erguelen a rea in M ay-June 1990 confirm ed th at th e C P R p e rfo rm ed well in southern
o cean w in ter conditions, provided 2500 nm i o f data, and (notably) sam pled eup h au sid s up to 20
m m in size.
A continuing p ro g ram m e o f research survey is plan n ed extending to study the
d istrib u tion and ab u n d an ce o f krill larvae in th e Prydz Bay R egion, A n tarctica. C o sts a re borne
internally by A A D .
4.6 M iseellaneous/process-studv support
In section 1, above, a ran g e o f process studies w ere identified which w ere m o re restricted
in tim e and space than th e long-term m onitoring efforts which form th e basis o f this proposal
but which w ould benefit from C P R support (e.g. th e variable advection o f C alanus o n to the
B aren ts Sea shelf in section 1.5; th e seasonal developm ent o f Zooplankton grazing p ow er along
th e m arginal ice zone in section 1.4; the need for th e vaalidation o f th e Zooplankton com ponen t
o f ecosystem m odels in section 1.7).
R a th e r th an attem p t to cost th e variable re q u irem en ts o f each o f th ese explicitly, it achieves
m uch th e sam e object to cost them generically, as an ad d itio n al eq u ip m en t cost to cover the
m o re specialised g ear that is likely to b e required.
W e envisage th re e m ain types o f task.
F irst, th e ocasional use o f th e U ndulating
O cean o g rap h ic R eco rd er (U O R ) on alm ost any o n e o f th e stan d ard C P R ’tim e -serie s’ routes
to p rovide depth-validation o f th e data set collected at th e fixed C P R d ep th o f 10 m. Second,
th e initial use o f U O R coverage to ch aracterise th e zoogeography o f th e p lankton in any area
for which new C P R coverage is proposed, thus providing th e necessary in fo rm atio n to design
th e m ost a p p ro p ria te frequency and depth o f cover for th e local conditions. T h ird , th e use of
45
in stru m en ted C P R ’s to
provide a range o f environm ental p a ra m e te rs on a routine basis for
in terp retin g th e d istrib u tio n and dynam ics o f the plankton.
(i) 'in stru m e n te d C P R '. A s developed by th e team at PM L, this system with its solid-state
logger package fits b e n e a th th e stan d ard C P R and collects d ata on T, S, chlorophyll, upwelling
and downwelling irra d ia n c e and depth, (as well as the norm al phytoplankton and Zooplankton
sam ples via th e s ta n d a rd C P R internal net m echanism ). C o m p ared w ith th e standard C P R cost
o f £3.5k each for re c o rd e r an d m echanism , this instrum ented d evelopm ent costs an added £13k.
(ii)
U O R II.
T h e un d u lato r with its full suite o f in stru m en ts including C, T, D,
fluorescence, P .A .R ., u p and down irradiance via 3 light channels, an d newly developed n u trien t
o r co n tam in ant sen so r o p tio n s is a m ost sophisticated and pow erful p ackage (Aiken and B ellan
op. cit.), with th e capability o f estim ating p otential productivity ra th e r than phytoplankton
standing stock by com bining th e depth distribution o f chlorophyll w ith irradiance. It m ay also
b e eq uipped w ith th e stan d ard C P R internal m echanism to collect plankton.
T h e initial
equipm ent cost pro b ab ly relegates the U O R to a support role in any m onitoring effort of global
scale, though w hen u sed in su p p o rt the C P R and U O R form a m ost pow erful com bination for
large m arin e ecosystem m onitoring. W e envisage a constant n eed for at least 3 such system s
in support o f th e th re e aim s outlined above. T hough the costs vary w ith th e sensor options and
th e options for th e logging, shipboard delivery, o r satellite transm ission o f the data, we assum e
a m ean cost o f £60k p e r instrum ent.
Ideally in stru m e n te d C PR s an d UO Rs would be the p re fe rre d in stru m e n ts on every route;
in practice, in o rd e r to achieve a m ore-global coverage o f plankton m onitoring, we envisage the
continued w id esp read use o f th e standard C P R for th e presen t, w ith instrum ented C P R s
specified for c e rtain new ro u tes (see .Sections 4.3 and 4.4 above) an d w ith the U O R in support
as required.
Plainly, we could achieve this mix o f instrum entation by m erely ad d in g a num ber o f each of
th e m ore-specialised in stru m en ts to the SA H FO S "fleet". T h e analytical and ship-support costs
can be assum ed to b e already accounted-for in th e costs for a given ro u te (m ore or less), and
th e added cost o f specialised equipm ent will be + £13k p e r enviro n m en tal package and + £60k
p er U O R .
H ow ever, th e re a re p erh ap s m ore efficient ways o f m eeting th e standard and the
m ore-specialised survey tasks (above) than by operating essentially-different gears for each task.
F igure F41, for exam ple, m akes th e sim ple point th at if th e A q u a sh u ttle (U O R ) body-shell could
be m ade to "fish" identically to th e present C PR , then o n e in stru m en t becom es capable o f all
tasks, and all C P R s ca n becom e instrum ented C P R s or U O R s, tem p o rarily or perm anently, as
required, sim ply by plugging in an environm ental package, o r an a lte rn a to r and gear-box, or
both.
T his exam ple is illustrative only. Clearly, to change from th e long-established C PR body for
any reason is to risk th e continuity o f the existing tim e-series, an d w ould not be a sensible
46
o p tio n unless and until it can b e d em o n strated to m ak e no differen ce to th e way th e C P R tows
and fishes. H ow ever, it does illu strate the type o f trial th at th e S teering C ouncil o f th e C PR
m ay have to u n d erta k e if it is to m axim ise th e effectiveness o f its global coverage at m inim um
cost.
4.7 T o tal cost
T h e various ro u te options listed in this proposal d o atte m p t to m atch real o r developing
global problem s w ith a global sca tte r o f regional m o n ito rin g efforts and at a m o d e ra te cost. This
p a p e r is not so m uch a p ro p o sal how ever as an illustrative exam ple o f th e type o f cover th at it
seem s feasible to achieve at p resen t. W hile o th e r b e tte r ro u te s an d techniques m ay em erg e for
this p u rp o se it is probably o f value to record th e to tal co st o f this p articu lar sp arse global scatter
o f ro u tes, since it will provide an order-of-m agnitude fig u re for th e cost o f any global m onitoring
effo rt o f sim ilar scope.
T h e following a re th e long te rm an n u a l ru n n in g co sts fo r th e global C PR coverage described
in this docum ent, a rea by area. A s already explained, th e setting-up costs a re h ig h er by th e cost
o f new gear and th ese can be o b tain ed from th e regional subsections c f the text. T h e re will also
be a general ra th e r than a regional cost of purchasing U O R units for th e p u rp o se o f checking
up on th e depth-validity o f historic tim e-series routes, and fo r exploring new ones,
[say two
U O R units at £60k = £120k].
£K
T he NW E u ro p e an sh elf and N orth A tlantic
492
T he M ed iterran ean ’su b set’
111
T he A rabian S e a /In d ia n O cean (two routes, in stru m e n te d )
110
T he W est and E ast Pacific (in stru m en ted C P R s)
120
T otal
£833,000
T o achieve effective developm ent tow ards this m o re global scope, it is already plain th at the
C P R will require th e su p p o rt o f two quite d iffe ren t kinds o f adm inistrative structure.
F inancially, the re q u irem en t is not m erely for an a d e q u a te funding base but for a continuity of
funding that can enable tim e-series to grow. W hile th e m any cu rren t in tern a tio n al initiatives
in ecosystem dynam ics - funded directly by G o v ern m en ts o r indirectly through bodies such as
th e W orld Bank - have th e in tere sts and the resources to form a fruitful context fo r C P R growth,
it is plain that th e IO C will have a special c o o rd in a tin g role in view o f its key aim of
establishing, in G O O S, a global ocean equivalent o f th e W orld W e ath er W atch, o f world-w ide
scope, indefinite d u ratio n and inter-governm ental reso u rce.
S cientifically th e adm inistrative
s tru ctu re is already becom ing established. Since its In c o rp o ratio n on 29 N ovem ber 1990 and its
R eg istration as a charity on 12 D ecem ber 1990, T h e S ir A lister H ardy F o u n d atio n for O cean
S cience has o p erated as an In tern atio n al C h aritab le T ru st u n d er th e aegis o f th e M arine
B iological A ssociation o f th e U K , and with laboratory and w orkshop facilities in its present
47
Water
tunnel
F 4 1a
T h e S tandard C PR
T o w e d by sh ips-of-opportunity, m onthly, along selected ro u te s at a
fixed tow -depth o f 10 m . P lankton entering the 1.25 c m 2 ap ertu re in
the nose are trapped betw een tw o bands o f 2 9 0 m icro n -m esh silk
w hich unroll at a rate p ro p o rtio n al to tow ing speed, and are then
p reserved in form alin. In the laboratory, the silk b ands are cut in to
sectio n s co rresponding to 10-m ile lengths o f tow , co u n ted u n d er a
m icro sco p e and entered to com puter. In 60 years since 1931, ships o f
10 nations have tow ed C P R s alo n g a track-length o f ~ 4 m illion m iles.
48
-p».
VO
a) Option 1
1.
Basic Aquashuttlc body (non­
undulating) but suitable for upgrade to full
AouashutUe.
£ 7,000
Plankton sampler
Free
()) O p tio n 2
Basic Aquashuttlc Body with Equipment
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
C)
O p tio n 3
F u ll U n dulating A q u a sh u rd e
Costs
Costs
Basic Body
Plankton Sampler
Data logger with CTD
Fluorimeter
Battery Pack
Wiring Harness
£ 7 ,0 0 0
Free
£ 5 .9 9 5
£5.9 9 5
£ 995
£ 300
].
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Basic Body
Plankton Sampler
Data logger with CTD
Fluorimeter
Battery Pack
Wiring Harness
Scrvolgcarbox/altcmator/
impeller and crank
£ 7 .0 0 0
Free
£ 5 ,9 9 5
£ 5 ,9 9 5
£ 995
£ 300
£14.000
Further options
Biolummescencc
F41b
Could a single towed body with m odular equipm ent perform as 'standard
CPR', 'instrum ented CPR’ and 'UOR'? Costs o f the three options are
shown. (The Chelsea Instruments 'Aquashuttle' body is used in this
illustration).
£ 5.995
Upwelling and down welling
(3 channels each)
£ 7 .9 9 5
Additional wiring harnesses
POA
location w ithin th e Plym outh M arin e L aboratory. T h e next step in ten d ed by th e T ru stee s is th e
establishm ent o f a C P R Council, and it will be this body - com posed o f th e re p resen ta tiv e s of
significant funding bodies, th e D ire cto r o f th e C P R Survey and c e rta in officers o f th e
F o u n d atio n - which will have the responsibility o f directing the fu tu re scientific developm ent of
th e Survey, an d for partitioning th e available reso u rces into (fo r exam ple) m ain ten an c e of
tim e-series routes, establishm ent o f new routes, in stru m en t developm ent, training, d ata policy,
d ata p ro cessing an d d ata exchange. In brief, for m atching facilities and analytical capacity to
th e changing resources, aim s and scope o f th e Survey.
5.
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