Spatial Correlation Analysis of ENSO with
Southwestern North America Hydroclimate
Josh
1
Heyer ,
2*
Brewer ,
2
Shinker ,
Simon
Jacqueline J.
Andrea
1,2*Department of Geography, University of Utah
2Department of Geography, University of Wyoming
2*
Brunelle
PROPOSED MASTERS THESIS
Results
Introduction
Pacific sea-surface temperature (i.e.
SST) variability influences the delivery
of winter (i.e. snow) and summer (i.e.
North American Monsoon) precipitation
to regions of southwestern North
America. Complicating the availability
of important water resources is
anthropogenic climate change, which is
expected to result in warmer and drier
climate conditions for much of this
drought prone region. Therefore,
exploring ENSO and southwestern North
America hydroclimate teleconnections is
needed, to better understand how ENSO
variability has impacted water resources
in the past in order to plan for the future.
Research Questions
ENSO/NCEP Cool Season Precipitation
and Temperature Correlation Difference
ENSO/NARR Precipitation and Temperature Pearson Correlation
Temperature
Precipitation
Precipitation P-value
Cool
Season
Warm
Season
Figure: ENSO3.4 – NCEP precipitation and
temperature correlation difference maps.
DJF
1. Investigate the spatial distribution of
ENSO and North America precipitation
and temperature correlations over
different seasons.
Conclusions
1. Observed correlations at fine spatial
resolutions, particularly in border areas.
2. The strength and spatial distribution of
correlations vary spatially and temporally.
MAM
2. Consider the non-stationarity of
ENSO and North America hydroclimate
teleconnections.
3. What is the added value in using the
NARR dataset to explore climatological
patterns at finer spatial resolutions?
3. DJF and cool seasons show strongest ENSO
- precipitation correlations
4. DJF and MAM seasons show strongest
ENSO – temperature correlations.
JJAS
Data
Precipitation and temperature data was
provided by the National Center for
Environmental Prediction/National Center
for Atmospheric Research (i.e.
NCEP/NCAR), and the North American
Regional Reanalysis (i.e. NCEP/NARR).
ENSO3.4 SST data was provided by the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (i.e. NOAA).
5. Cool-season precipitation non-stationarity in
the Pacific NW and Midwest.
6. Cool-season temperature non-stationarity in
the Intermountain West and Midwest.
DJF,
MAM &
JJAS
Temp
P-values
7. Stationarity in the southwestern US and
northern México.
Acknowledgments: I would like to thank my
Figure: ENSO3.4 - NARR precipitation and temperature Pearson correlation and p-value maps for the cool
season (October – March), warm season (April – September), winter (DJF), spring (MAM), and North
American Monsoon (JJAS) seasons from 1979 - 2014.
colleagues at the University of Utah and the University of
Wyoming for their continued support, the McNair Scholars
Program, the NSF, and NOAA for providing the data used in
this study.
References available upon request: josh.heyer@geog.utah.edu