Using provenance tests to inform
seed transfer and within-species
assisted migration in the Sierra
Nevada
Jessica W. Wright
Aurore Bontemps
Johanna Schmitt
jessicawwright@fs.fed.us
Thank you…
• Jim Jenkinson, PSW- Institute for Forest
Genetics
• Roger Stutts, Det Vogler, Annie Mix,
Richard Sniezko, Jerry Hill
• Forest Inventory and Monitoring Program
(2009 measurements)
• Jim Baldwin
Adaptation in a Changing Climate
Populations within species
are adapted to historical climate
Trees of the same
species:
Adapted to cold
temperatures
Adapted to moderate
temperatures
Adapted to warm
temperatures
(Source: S. Aitken)
Adaptation in a Changing Climate
Populations within species
are adapted to historical climate
Populations are mismatched with
changing Climate
(Source: S. Aitken)
Adaptation in a Changing Climate
Populations within species
are adapted to historical climate
Populations are mismatched with
changing Climate
The genetic
variation needed to
adapt to new
conditions may
exist…
just not where it’s
currently needed
(Source: S. Aitken)
Sugar Pine
(Pinus lambertiana)
•
•
Wind pollinated
Seed dispersed mostly by
scatter hoarders
Restricted gene flow …
prone to adaptational lag


4 planting sites
 Low altitude in Sierra Nevada:
830 m (2500 ft)
 High altitude in Sierra Nevada:
1860 m (5000 ft)
 Coastal in Oregon:
730 m (2300 ft)
 Inland in Oregon:
450 m (1400 ft)
Height & Survival (Jim
Jenkinson, Kitzmiller 2005)

Low elevation planting site in
Sierra Nevada:
 Outside of the species range
 Dry and hot climatic
conditions
 Seedlings infected by the
charcoal root rot
LOW
ELEVATION
Cannon- Low elevation CA- 2500 feet
High elevation California site- 5000 feet
Thoughts
• The management question at hand
• What provenance tests can’t do
The management question at hand
• What is the best source of seed to plant at a
given location?
– Near-term and long term considerations
– Climate change
– Assisted migration (within species)
• Ecological restoration
– Post-fire, other reasons
• A decision is made to plant trees…
What provenance tests cannot do
• Estimate performance in “real world”
conditions
– Usually planted under ideal conditions
– Seedlings were watered during the first couple
years of growth
– Competing vegetation was controlled
• Older tests were established at more
productive sites
– Future plantings may be on more marginal
sites
• Can’t control for the effects of other factors
– Fire, insect pests or disease
Take home points
• Climate can be used to describe (and
predict) performance at these planting
sites
• But- describing early height, later height
and survival are not the same thing!
• Southern populations did very well in the
hotter, drier test site- arguing for efforts to
conserve seeds from “trailing edge”
populations
Take home points
• Climate can be used to describe (and
predict) performance at these planting
sites
• But- describing early height, later height
and survival are not the same thing!
• Southern populations did very well in the
hotter, drier test site- arguing for efforts to
conserve seeds from “trailing edge”
populations
ClimateWNA (Wang 2012)
Drier
Wetter
PCA of the climate variables
Cooler
Warmer
MAT: mean annual T°C
MWMT: mean T°C of the warmest
month
MCMT: mean T°C of the coldest
month
EXT: extreme max T°C
EMT: extreme min T°C
NFFD: number of frost free days
bFFP: julian date of frost free
period initiation
PAS: precipitation as snow
MAP: mean annual precipitation
MSP: mean summer precipitation
AHM: annual heat moisture index
SHM: summer heat moisture
index
Eref: evaporative demand
Less Seasonal
More Seasonal
PCA of the Climate Variables – PC1 and PC3
Cooler
Warmer
Model used:
spaMM
(Roussett et al 2014)
Model used:
spaMM
(Roussett et al 2014)
Ht=intercept + PC1 + PC12 + PC2 + PC22 + PC3 + PC32
Model used:
spaMM
(Roussett et al 2014)
Ht=intercept + PC1 + PC12 + PC2 + PC22 + PC3 + PC32
Elevation
Latitude
Longitude
Model used:
spaMM
(Roussett et al 2014)
Ht=intercept + PC1 + PC12 + PC2 + PC22 + PC3 + PC32
Elevation
Latitude
Longitude
Preliminary results!
Site
High Elev. CA
High Elev. CA
High Elev. CA
High Elev. CA
High Elev. CA
Variable PC 1
Ht84
x
Ht89
Ht00
x
DBH00
x
DBH09
x
Low Elev. CA
Low Elev. CA
Low Elev. CA
Low Elev. CA
Ht84
Ht89
Ht00
DBH09
x
x
PC 2 PC 3 Elevation
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
PC 1
Bigger
Warmer
Cooler
High Elev HT 1984
High Elev HT 2000
High Elev DBH 2000
High elev DBH 2009
Low Elev HT 1984
Low Elev HT 1989
Smaller
• Graph shows how trees FROM different climates perform
• Early growth is similar on both sites
• Other traits are very different
PC 2
Bigger
Wetter
Drier
High Elev HT 2000
High Elev DBH 2000
High Elev DBH 2009
Low Elev HT 1984
Smaller
Low Elev HT 1989
• Associations between climate of origin and performance vary
across traits and sites
• Choice of “priority” trait will influence choice of seed source
Bigger
Less seasonal
PC 3
More seasonal
Smaller
High Elev HT 1984
High Elev HT 2000
High Elev DBH 2000
High Elev DBH 2009
Low Elev HT 1984
Low Elev HT 1989
• Graph shows how trees FROM different climates perform
• Early growth is similar on both sites
Elevation
Bigger
High Elevation
Low Elevation
High Elev HT 1989
Low Elev HT 2000
Smaller
Low Elev DBH 2009
• Graph shows how trees FROM different elevations perform
• Provenances from intermediate elevations had the best
performance
Site
Survival PC 1 PC 2 PC 3 Elevation Latitude
High Elev. CA
1984
x
High Elev. CA
1989
x
High Elev. CA
2000 x
x
x
High Elev. CA
2009 x
x
x
Low Elev. CA
Low Elev. CA
Low Elev. CA
Low Elev. CA
1984
1989
2000
2009
x
x
x
x
x
PC 1
PC 2
100% survival
100% survival
Colder
0% survival
Warmer Drier
PC 3
100% survival
High Elev 2000
High Elev 2009
Low Elev 2009
Less Seasonal
0% survival
More Seasonal
0% survival
Wetter
• Similar results for 2000
and 2009
• Lower survival at the low
elevation site
• Trees from wetter sites
had better survival
100% survival
Elevation
100% survival
Latitude
High Elev 1989
High Elev 1984
Low Elev 1984
Low Elev 1989
Low Elev 2000
0% survival
Low Elevation
0% survival
High Elevation
South
North
In general, elevation and latitude described early survival best
Number of frost-free days
Changes in the growing season length in the
study sites
300
SierraHIGH
SierraLOW
OregonCOASTAL
OregonINLAND
250
200
19611970
19711980
19811990
Decade
19912000
20002010
Diameter in 2009 (pop means)
Growth at 26 years old
in the high elevation site
Number of frost free days of origin
1981-1990
1991-2000
Take home points
• Climate can be used to describe (and
predict) performance at these planting
sites
• But- describing early height, later
height and survival are not the same
thing!
• Southern populations did very well in the
hotter, drier test site- arguing for efforts to
conserve seeds from “trailing edge”
populations
Take home points
• Climate can be used to describe (and
predict) performance at these planting
sites
• But- describing early height, later height
and survival are not the same thing!
• Southern populations did very well in
the hotter, drier test site- arguing for
efforts to conserve seeds from “trailing
edge” populations
Map of the observed rate
of survival per population
• Low elevation site
Map of the observed rate
of survival per population
• Low elevation site
Southern populations
had strong survival at
the low elevation site
Map of the observed rate
of survival per population
• Low elevation site
Southern populations
had strong survival at
the low elevation site
Population from high
elevations seem to perform
relatively well in the low
elevation site
Map of the observed rate
of survival per population
• High elevation site
High elevation site- southern
populations still perform well
Take home points
• Climate can be used to describe (and
predict) performance at these planting
sites
• But- describing early height, later height
and survival are not the same thing!
• Southern populations did very well in
the hotter, drier test site- arguing for
efforts to conserve seeds from “trailing
edge” populations
Future directions
• What happens operationally?
– How does seed source influence survival
and growth in a “plant and pray” situation?
• Proposed research
– Rim Fire reforestation project
– Proposing to include some patches where
seeds are brought in from a different seed
zone and/or elevational band
– Monitoring over time will test for success of
these seed sources undergoing “withinspecies assisted migration”.