Public Investments in Sustainable Technology: An Evaluation of North Carolina’s Green Business Fund Michael J. Hall Department of Economics University of North Carolina at Greensboro Greensboro, NC 27402 mjhall@uncg.edu Public Investments in Sustainable Technology: An Evaluation of North Carolina’s Green Business Fund With careful management, new and emerging technologies offer enormous opportunities for raising productivity and living standards, for improving health, and for conserving the natural resource base. — United Nations (1987, p. 182) Introduction: The passage above, written over twenty-five years ago, expresses hope that technological advances can improve the human condition while enhancing environmental sustainability. In the interim, concerns have spurred the implementation national and international policies to address environmental sustainability issues, many of which are tied to technology policies. Some of these policies directly support investments in the research and development (R&D) of technologies that mitigate the negative impacts of human activity on the environment. Here, these technologies are called sustainability technologies.1 Economic arguments support the nexus of environmental and technology policies; not only is there a market failure with regard to environmental externalities, but also there is a market failure with regard to an underinvestment in sustainability technologies. Inefficiencies in the market for sustainable technologies can lead to uncertainty in the market for innovative activity directed towards environmental technologies. Meanwhile, the inefficiencies in the market for innovative activity reduce the incentives for firms to invest in environmental technologies that could mitigate inefficiencies in the market for sustainability. As Jaffe and Newell (2005, p.166) summarize: “[This dual-market] problem compounds, because independent of the externality associated with pollution, innovation and diffusion are both characterized by externalities as well as other market failures.” The public sector’s role in addressing this dual market problem is to remove barriers that bring about market inefficiencies. When facing the dual set of inefficiencies associated with 1 The benefits from implementing sustainability technologies can take many forms such as reductions in the costs of pollution abatement, mitigation of future negative impacts of environmental externalities, increases in energy efficiency, the development of new and non-polluting energy sources, and increased efficiency in the use of nonrenewable resources. Sustainability technologies can take the form of improvements in or the development of entirely new products or processes. 1 sustainability and innovation, the government can choose from among several approaches to influence the markets. The government can address each market separately, address the dual market problem jointly, or use a combination of policies that address each market individually as well as the dual market. Addressing only one half of the dual market leaves the potential for inefficiencies to influence investments in R&D towards environmental technologies. If government choses to address only the market for innovative activity, it could still be that a lack of market demand could prevent the diffusion and adoption of environmental technologies. Addressing only the market for sustainability neglects the spillovers and uncertainty inherent in the market for innovations. Alternatively, the government could address the dual market by incentivizing investments in environmental technologies directly. Targeting the dual market ensures that neither dimension of the market failure is wanting for policy remedies, although the effect may be limited without policies that address other inefficiencies. The government could also choose to use a mix of policies, thereby addressing both markets independently while simultaneously addressing the dual market. For example, Popp et al. (2010) concluded from their review of the policy literature on the relative efficiency of addressing the two sides of the dual market individually or jointly that the most effective means of addressing barriers to environmental innovation is a portfolio of approaches that includes policies for each market individually as well as policies that span both sides of the dual market. Sustainability technology programs are a subset of the policies that overlap the environmental sustainability and technology markets. These programs directly support investments in innovative activities whose purpose is to develop new sustainability technologies. This paper examines one such sustainability technology program, North Carolina’s Green Business Fund (hereafter, the Fund), from the perspective of quantifying the net social benefits attributable to that program. Insight gained from evaluating the Fund may prove to be useful to policy makers and perhaps lead to a more efficient allocation of public monies. The remainder of the paper is outlined as follows. In Section II, public policies toward the dual market problem are summarized at both the national level and the state level in an effort to place the Fund within the spectrum of public policies toward the development of sustainable technologies. The specifics of the Fund are summarized in Section III. Section IV describes the 2 data used in this paper to evaluate outcomes attributable to the Fund, and the implemented evaluation model developed is described and implemented in Section V. The paper concludes in Section VI with summary remarks. II. Public Policies toward the Dual Market Problem The United States has a notable record of promulgating policies that overlap the environmental sustainability and technology markets. Most of these policies focus primarily on sustainability concerns, but several include measures to address dual market issues. See Table 1 for a summary. Table 1 about here States have also implemented sustainability technology programs. Eleven states have implemented a total of 21 such programs as summarized in Table 2.2 Most of these programs were established within the last 20 years. New York was the first state to implement a sustainability technology program, establishing the New York State Energy Research and Development Administration (NYSERDA) in 1975. Since then, as shown in Figure 1, the cumulative number of states with sustainability programs has increased exponentially. Table 2 about here Figure 1 about here III. North Carolina’s Green Business Fund The Fund was established by North Carolina General Statute §143B-437.4(a): The NC Green Business Fund is established as a special revenue fund in the Department of Commerce. … The Department of Commerce shall make grants from the Fund to private businesses with less than 100 employees, nonprofit organizations, local governments, and State agencies to encourage the expansion of small to medium size 2 The author estimated the probability of a state having implemented a sustainability technology program as a function of state-level characteristics. The estimation results indicate a quadratic relationship, with the linear term being positive, between the proportion of state domestic product spent on R&D and it having implemented a sustainability program. These results are available from the author on request. 3 businesses with less than 100 employees to help grow a green economy in the State. Moneys in the NC Green Business Fund shall be used for projects that will focus on the following three priority areas … [t]o encourage the development of the biofuels industry … [t]o encourage the development of the green building industry … [and to] attract and leverage private-sector investments and entrepreneurial growth in environmentally conscious clean technology and renewable energy products and businesses. The North Carolina Board of Science and Technology (hereafter, the Board), within the North Carolina Department of Commerce, operated the Fund during fiscal years 2008 through 2011. Their statement of the purpose of the Fund was more focused than that in the General Statute: (http://www.ncscitech.com/grant-programs/green-business-fund): [To provide] competitive grants to help N.C. small businesses develop commercial innovations and applications in the biofuels industry and the green building industry, as well as attract and leverage private sector investments and entrepreneurial growth in environmentally conscious technologies and renewable energy products and businesses. Projects targeted by the Fund fall into one of three categories: projects that focus on biofuel development and production, projects that focus on green building technologies, and projects that promote private investments in green industry in North Carolina. North Carolina provided grant funding for the program for fiscal years FY2008 and FY2009, while the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) provided funding for FY2010 and FY2011. This paper considers only state investments in FY2008 and FY2009.3 This choice of years was based on the pragmatic consideration that detailed data about the program were available for only those two years—the Board conducted a survey in CY2012 of organizations that received grants in FY2008 and FY2009, and those data form the empirical basis for this paper. The Board awarded $950,000 in both FY2008 and FY2009. Of the 85 applications received in response to the FY2008 solicitation, 63 were in compliance with the application requirements that were set forth by the Board. Of those 63, 13 were selected to receive grants. FY2008 award 3 This delimitation should not be interpreted to mean that ARRA funding of green businesses in North Carolina or elsewhere is of lesser importance. On the contrary, efforts toward government accountability at all levels are important and such an evaluation effort should be undertaken in the future. 4 amounts ranged from $18,000 to $100,000. For the FY2009 solicitation, 14 additional organizations received grants ranging from $40,000 to $99,486. Awardee profiles are in Table 3. Table 3 about here IV. Board of Science and Technology Survey of Grant Recipients The General Assembly in North Carolina periodically and systematically reviews agencies, divisions, and programs financed by State government. This process is known as the Continuation Review Program. The Continuation Review Program is intended to assist the General Assembly in determining whether to continue, reduce, or eliminate funding for a particular agency/division/program. The State’s Office of Science and Technology (hereafter, the Office), which houses the Board, underwent a continuation review in CY2012. As part of that review, the Office systematically collected survey information from the organizations funded in FY2008 and FY2009 through the Fund. Two sources of data provide background information on grant recipients, the Board’s survey and time-of-award characteristics.4 Of the 27 organizations that received grants over the two solicitations, 24 completed or partially completed the survey. This represents an 89 percent response rate. Of the 24 recipient organizations, 21 are private-sector companies and 3 are public-sector organizations. In addition to data from the survey, time-of-award data are available for all grant recipients from the Board. Summary statistics for the 27 recipient organizations on selected variables from the time-ofaward data are in Table 4. These data are presented to describe the representativeness of the 24 organizations that responded to the survey. Included in Table 4 are: the size of the grant (Grant), age of the recipient organization as of the 2012 survey (Age), employees at the time of the award (Employ), percent of organizations that are C-Corporations (C-Corp), and percent of respondents that are public-sector organizations (Public). A visual inspection of the data in Table 4 suggests that response bias is not an issue of concern. Results from t-tests of differences in means indicate population means for respondents and non-respondents are not statistically different. 4 These time-of-award data were supplied by applicants as part of the application process. 5 This descriptive comparison suggests that the sample of 24 respondent grant recipients is representative of the grant-recipient population. V. An Evaluation of the Green Business Fund The following models aim to examine the social benefits of publicly funded technology programs. To do so, the total surplus of a program, conditional on the elasticity of demand for the innovations, is compared to cost of operating the program. The models yield a calculated elasticity of demand below which the benefit-to-cost (B/C) ratio of the program is greater than one. That is to say, if the actual elasticity of demand is lower than the calculated value then the program’s social benefits will be greater than its costs. Therefore, calculated elasticities of demand that are relatively larger provide stronger support that the benefits of a program outweigh the costs. Allen et al. (2012) developed a benefit-to-cost (B/C) model under several assumptions. Assume that each award recipient (hereafter, firm) develops, from the research funded by the grant, a unique innovation so that it has or will have, at least temporarily, a monopoly position in the market. Assume as well that the firm faces a linear demand function given as π = π – ππ₯, where p represents price and x represents output quantity; and assume that marginal and average cost are constant. Following Allen et al. (2012), profit, π, or producer surplus (PS) can be calculated as the total receipts from the sale of the innovation, ππ₯, less the total cost of production, ππ₯, as: (1) ππ = (π − π)π₯ = (π−π)ππ₯ π The profit maximizing monopolist (*) will price its output where the profit margin equals the inverse of the elasticity of demand (π): (2) (π∗−π) π∗ 1 = π . Thus, equation (1) simplifies to: 1 ππ = π π∗ π₯ ∗ And, under the assumption of a linear demand, consumer surplus (CS) is: 6 1 πΆπ = 2 (π − π)π₯ (3) For profit maximization, marginal revenue (MR) equals marginal cost (c): ππ = π − 2ππ₯ = π (4) Solving equation (4) for the profit maximizing price and output quantity yields π₯ ∗ = π∗ = π+π 2 π−π 2π and 1 . Substituting these results into equation (3) yields πΆπ = 2 ππ. Given equation (2), it follows that: (5) 1 πΆπ = 2π π∗ π₯ ∗ . Equations (1) and (5) were used by Allen et al. (2012) to calculate the value of total surplus (TS): (6) ππ = 1 2π 1 π∗ π₯ ∗ + π π∗ π₯ ∗ One may solve for the value of e at which B/C = 1 by setting equation (6) equal to fixed costs (C). 5 This elasticity value will be denoted as e* and it represents the threshold elasticity, below which B/C > 1. If the actual elasticity of demand is below e* then the social benefits resulting from the technology development will be greater than the costs.6 The Allen et al. (2012) model can be extended in two ways: the assumption that the firm faces a linear demand can be altered, and the assumption that there are no substitutes for the firm’s innovation can be relaxed.7 Changing these assumptions allows for a test of the robustness of the Allen et al. (2012) model. The extended model relies on several assumptions. First, the model assumes that the innovator is able to exert monopoly power. This assumption is carried over from the Allen, et al. (2012) model and is supported by the fact that patent protection allows innovators a time-limited 5 Costs (C) here are fixed costs of developing the technologies. These fixed costs include Fund grants and, potentially, additional investments by award recipients. 6 This is conditional on the validity of the model assumptions. 7 A step-by-step derivation of the extended model is presented in Appendix A. 7 monopoly on their innovations. Second, the initial specification of the extended model assumes that no close substitutes exist. This assumption will be relaxed in later model specifications. Close substitutes are considered to be goods that provide outputs that are similar to the innovation but are not necessarily technologically inferior versions of the innovation.8 And third, the model assumes an isoelastic demand, which is expressed as: π₯ = ππ−π (7) The terms in equation (7) are defined as follows: as above, π₯ is the quantity demanded and π is the price of the good; π is the own-price elasticity of demand, which is assumed to be greater than one; and π is a constant. Total surplus (TS) is the sum of producer surplus (PS) and consumer surplus (CS). By applying the inverse elasticity rule, one can express producer surplus as the value of revenues divided by the elasticity of demand. This condition is expressed as: 1 ππ = (π ) (π∗ π₯ ∗ ) (8) Again, π∗ and π₯ ∗ are the monopolist’s profit-maximizing price and quantity, respectively. However, these values are likely to differ than those derived under the assumption of linear demand. Consumer surplus is defined to be the area under the demand curve above the price. This area is expressed as the following integral: (9) ∞ πΆπ = ∫π∗ ππ−π ππ This integral can be simplified and yields the solution: (10) πΆπ = [1/(π − 1)](π∗ π₯ ∗ ) 8 Automobiles and horse-drawn carriages are an example of reasonable substitutes as both provide transportation but do so with different technologies. 8 Total surplus, the sum of consumer and producer surplus, is: (11) 1 1 ππ = [π−1] (π∗ π₯ ∗ ) + (π ) (π∗ π₯ ∗ ) As stated, total surplus is taken to be the benefits to society. One is able to calculate π that yields a benefit-to-cost ratio equal to one by setting equation (11) equal to the fixed costs of the program and solving for π. The value of π for which B/C = 1 is denoted as π ∗ . Again, if the calculated value of π is greater than π ∗ then the social benefits of the program are greater than costs (i.e., B/C > 1). Figure 2 illustrates the extended model assuming no reasonable substitutes exist. The solid line is the demand in absence of a substitute. Note that equation (7) gives the functional form of demand. Total revenue is (0π∗ Bπ₯ ∗ ); the darker shaded portion of total revenue is producer surplus (Ap*BC), an area proportional to total revenue, as expressed in equation (8), by the amount (1/ε). The lighter shaded region, between the vertical axis and the demand curve and above the line segment (π∗ π΅), depicts consumer surplus. The value of total benefits of the innovation is the combined areas of the two shaded regions. Substitutes can be included in the model. This inclusion is done by assuming that some reasonable substitute exists and is sold at a price ππ , where ππ > π∗ . This relationship between own and substitute price can be maintained if innovators are assumed to enter the market only if they’re able to exert monopoly power. Given the existence of a substitute, the demand curve is now considered to be horizontal at ππ , and follows its original form at all prices below ππ . For convenience, the ratio of ππ /π∗ will be expressed as π, which is always greater than one. Additionally, the relationship ππ = ππ∗ is used to simplify notation below. The addition of a substitute does not change the value of producer surplus, as the producer maintains monopoly power. That is to say, equation (3) still expresses the value of producer surplus. However, the value of consumer surplus is now zero at all prices above ππ . The integral that expresses the value of consumer surplus given the existence of a substitute is: (12) ππ∗ πΆπ = ∫π∗ ππ−π ππ 9 This integral simplifies to the expression: (13) πΆπ = [1/(π − 1)](1 − π1−π )(π∗ π₯ ∗ ) Thus, the value of total surplus under the assumption that a reasonable substitute exists can be expressed as: (14) ππ = (1/π)(π∗ π₯ ∗ ) + [1/(π − 1)](1 − π1−π )(π∗ π₯ ∗ ) With an assumed value for π, one is able to calculate the new value of π ∗ by setting equation (14) equal to the fixed costs of the program and solving for π. Given the complex nature of equation (14), an analytical solution for π ∗ is not easily obtained. However, one may employ an iterative process to determine the value of π ∗ for a given value of π. Figure 3 shows how substitutes affect the extended model. The horizontal dotted lines at π = 1.5 depicts the inclusion of an existing technology that is 1.5 times as expensive as the new technology. Demand is now zero for all values of p above ππ , which is indicated via the dotted line labeled as m=1.5. The altered demand curve is horizontal at ππ , and follows its original path for all values of π < ππ . Thus, m serves to attenuate the quantity of CS that is included in the calculation of TS. For a given value of the elasticity of demand, π, the value of CS increases as m increases. With reference to the data in hand from the Board’s survey, the calculation of total social benefits using equation (14) required data on revenues and costs of funded projects. The revenue and cost specifications used in the analyses are defined as six cases, where each case includes a different combination of revenues and costs. These cases draw on following values from the Total column of table 5: To-Date Sales Subtotal, Total Sales, Total Sales + IP Value, Grant Funding, and Total Investment. The cases are defined as follows: case 1 includes To-Date Sales Subtotal and Grant Funding, case 2 includes Total Sales and Grant Funding, case 3 Includes Total Sales + IP Value and Grant Funding, case 4 includes To-Date Sales Subtotal and Total 10 Investment, case 5 includes Total Sales and Total Investment, and case 6 includes Total Sales + IP Value and Total Investment. 9 Equation (14) can be solved using an iterative process for alternative values of ε and m. See Table 6. Column (1) in Table 6 identifies the case considered for each row. Column (2) reports the calculated values of ε*, assuming that there are no substitute technologies. Thus, assuming no reasonable substitutes and case 1, if the elasticity of demand for the technologies that resulted from the Fund grant is 19.45, then B/C = 1. It may not be unreasonable to conclude from this calculated value of ε* of 19.45 that B/C exceeds 1, implying that the projects supported by the Fund are socially valuable. To the best of the author’s knowledge there are no comparable elasticizes reported in the literature. The other values of ε* in column (2) show that as the categories of sales included in the benefit calculations increase, the values of π ∗ also increase. Similarly, as the categories of costs included in the cost calculations increase, the values of π ∗ decrease. Perhaps the most inclusive representation of benefits and costs is that for which benefits include all current and expected future sales and for which costs include grant funding and additional funding; this is case 6. In this case, the values of π ∗ is 14.75. Columns (3) through (8) show that values of π ∗ decreases as the relative price of a substitute innovation decreases. The values of m for these calculations were arbitrarily chosen, for illustration purposes, to represent a substitute whose prices were 3, 2, 1.5, 1.1, 1.05, and 1.01 times higher than that of the developed technology. These values, or other similar values, demonstrate the responsiveness of the values of ε* to changes in the relative price. The values of ε* for m = 3, for example, differ from those where no reasonable substitute exists in only cases 4 and 5, the most conservative in terms of included costs and benefits. Figure 4 illustrates, for selected cases, the relationship between the values of ε* and π. The value of ε* are measured on the vertical axis. The values of π are measured on the horizontal axis. The curves indicate how the value of ε* changes as the value of m changes for cases 4 (solid line), 5 (dash-dotted line) and 6 (dotted line). As observed from figure 3, the value of ε*, for a given case, increases as π increases, but at a diminishing rate. 9 Case 1 makes comparable assumptions about the benefits and costs that are included as the analyses in Allen et al. (2012). 11 For a given case, as m increases the value of ε* asymptotically approaches the value of ε* calculated assuming no reasonable substitute. This means that the rate at which these values converge is faster in cases with relatively high values of ε* under the assumption of no reasonable substitute. For example, in case 6 the ε values are extremely close at π > 1.4. Comparatively, in case 4 the values of ε converge much more slowly and are still distinguishably apart at π = 3. This means that cases in which the value ε* with no reasonable substitute is smaller the assumed value of π has a larger effect. As such, additional considerations about the existence and relative price of substitutes should be given to cases in which the calculated value of ε for which B/C = 1 is small. VI. Concluding Remarks The results from this evaluation suggest that the net social benefits associated with the Fund are positive. Using the most comprehensive set of benefits and costs, the elasticity that resulted in B/C = 1 was 14.75. If demand for the technologies developed as part of the Fund is less elastic (i.e., the actual value of ε is less than 14.75) then the benefit-to-cost ratio of the program will be greater than one. That is to say, the value of the social benefits of the program is greater than the value of the costs. This conclusion should be interpreted in the light of the assumptions and limitations placed upon the model. First, as stated above, the purpose of changing the assumptions of the Allen et al. (2012) model was to test its robustness. Specifically, this paper introduced an alternative specification of market demand and assumptions about the existence and relative value of substitutes. As shown in Table 7, under the assumption of no reasonable substitutes, for each case considered the Allen, et al. model yielded a value for π that was lower than the value of π calculated using the extended model developed herein. This suggests that the Allen, et al. (2012) model provides a more conservative (i.e., lower) estimate of the elasticity of demand for which B/C = 1, and is therefore robust to changes in the functional form of market demand. When it is assumed that a reasonable substitute exists, for all cases except case 3, the value of e* calculated from the Allen, et al. model was close to the value of π calculated when π was assumed to be between 1.5 and 1.01. In case 3, the value of e* calculated via the Allen, et al. (2012) model was lower than the calculated values of π ∗ under all tested values of π. Within the context of the expanded model in this paper, 12 it is clear that changing assumptions related to the market for sustainability technologies do alter the resulting calculations and conclusions as to the overall net social performance of the Fund. Second, only benefits derived from current and expected future sales of the technologies and includes no estimate of environmental or health benefits. Inclusion of non-pecuniary benefits would lead to even higher B/C values. As the technologies developed using Fund monies were sustainability technologies, it is reasonable to assume that some positive environmental benefits should be included in the analyses. Inclusion of these benefits would likely increase the calculated elasticity of demand for which B/C = 1. Third, the findings presented herein are for one small state program; generalizations to other state programs should only be made with caution. The combined budget of the Fund for the two years under consideration was two million dollars. Larger programs that cover a broader range of firms and projects may yield different results than the Fund. This caution is of particular importance to future policy makers, who must consider the particulars of their situation and how it differs from that of the Fund. The research presented here has outlined only a portion of the landscape of evaluating publicly funded sustainability technology programs. Avenues for future research include extending the model to include additional categories of benefits such as pollution reduction and non-renewable resource saving, relaxing the assumptions about the nature of the market for newly developed technologies, and applying such models to other programs to expand the set of results that researchers and policy makers might use for comparisons. 13 References Allen, S. D., Layson, S. K., Link, A. N. 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Provided funds for R&D towards environmentally friendly power sources. Energy Policy Act of 1992 (P.L. 102-486) 1992 The Energy Policy Act of 1992 covered a broad range of energy topics including: federal vehicle fleet standards, federal building energy efficiency, renewable energy programs, toxic waste disposal and many other topics. Provided funds for: electric and hybrid vehicle demonstration program, clean coal R&D, and for renewable energy R&D. Biomass R&D Act (P.L. 106-224) 2000 Provided support for R&D Established grant programs to targeting the production of fund R&D on biofuels and Biofuels including the production related industries of biomass, the development of products derived from biomass and the increasing the efficiency of biofuel creation. Energy Policy Act of 2005 (P.L. 109-58) 2005 The Energy Policy Act of 2005 covered a broad range of energy topics. Provisions covered oil and gas production, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and many other energy-related topics. R&D support for many energyefficient and renewable energy technologies such as hydrogen power, high performance buildings, and more. Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (P.L. 110-140) 2007 Overarching goal of EISA was to transition the United States to greater energy independence and security through reduced dependence on foreign oil via energy efficiency and renewable energy. Established R&D programs to incentivize biofuel, solar, geothermal and hydrokinetic production. Additionally EISA provided funds for R&D on carbon capture and sequestration. Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008 (P.L. 110-343) 2008 The EIEA’s primary focus was to Support for innovation in the continue and enhance support for field biofuels was provided via sustainable energy initiatives. tax credits. 17 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (P.L. 111-5) 2009 Large piece of legislation introduced to counteract the effect of the Great Recession. Funding for R&D and adoption of alternative energy and energy-efficiency technologies. America COMPETES Act (P.L. 110-69) 2007 The America COMPETES Act’s focus was STEM education, increasing scientific research at the National Science Foundation, and other support for American research investment. Established the Office of Innovation and Entrepreneurship in the Department of Commerce. America COMPETES Reauthorization Act (P.L. 111-358) 2010 The America COMPETES Reauthorization Act expanded upon the America COMPETES Act. It provided higher levels of funding support over an expanded range of areas. The 2010 reauthorization of the bill includes funding for many agencies conducting science and engineering research, including ARPA-E. 18 Table 2 State-Level Sustainability Technology Programs State CA Program Name Used Oil Research and Demonstration Program Grants Innovative Clean Air Technologies Program (ICAT) Air Quality Improvement Projects – AB 118 Advanced Technology Demonstration Projects Energy Innovations Small Grant Program Technology Advancement Program Years 1994-present 1993-2008 2006-Present CO Clean Technology Discovery Evaluation Fund 2009-present CT Connecticut Clean Energy Fund Operational Demonstration Program New Energy Technology Programs 2000-present 2001-present 2005-present DE Green Energy Fund 1999-present MI Xcel Energy’s Renewable Development Fund 2001-present NC North Carolina Green Business Fund 2007-2011 ND North Dakota’s Renewable Energy Program 2007-present NJ Edison Innovation Green Growth Fund 2011-present NY New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) NYSERDA – Development of Biofules, Bioproducts and Feed Stocks in New York State NYSERDA – Innovation in Manufacturing of Clean Energy Technologies NYSERDA – Advanced Clean Power Technologies NYSERDA – Advanced Transportation Technologies 1975-present RI Renewable Energy Fund Grants 1996-present TX New Technology Research and Development 2004-present 1998-present 2007-present * * * * * Operated under NYSERDA for varying time periods. Sources: CA – AQIP http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/aqip/aqip.htm CA – ICAT http://www.arb.ca.gov/research/icat/icat.htm CA – EISGP http://www.energy.ca.gov/research/innovations/ CA – TAP http://www.cleanairactionplan.org/programs/tap/default.asp CA – UORDPG http://www.arb.ca.gov/ba/omb/farg/ombwfarg.htm#used CO – CTDEF http://www.leg.state.co.us/clics/clics2009a/csl.nsf/fsbillcont/97E2CDDCEF6F7B7787257537001A2EE6?Open&file =031_enr.pdf CT – CCEF http://energy.gov/savings/connecticut-clean-energy-fund-ccef 19 CT – ODP http://www.ctcleanenergy.com/YourBusinessorInstitution/FormerCommercialBusinessPrograms/TechnologyInnova tionPrograms/OperationalDemoProgram/tabid/601/Default.aspx CT – NETP http://energy.gov/savings/new-energy-technology-program DE – GEF http://www.dsireusa.org/incentives/incentive.cfm?Incentive_Code=DE01R MI – XERDF http://www.xcelenergy.com/Environment/Renewable_Energy/Renewable_Energy_Grants/Renewable_Development _Fund NC – NCGBF http://www.nccommerce.com/scitech/grant-programs/green-business-fund ND – REP http://www.nd.gov/ndic/renew-infopage.htm NJ – EIGGF http://www.njeda.com/web/Aspx_pg/Templates/Npic_Text.aspx?Doc_Id=1454&menuid=1509&topid=718&levelid =6&midid=1175 NY – NYSERDA http://www.nyserda.ny.gov/en/About.aspx NY – NYSERDA: DOBBFSNY www.nyserda.ny.gov/-/media/Files/FO/ClosedOpportunities/2008/PON1195summary.pdf NY – NYSERDA: IMCET www.nyserda.ny.gov/-/media/Files/FO/ClosedOpportunities/2012/PON2414summary.pdf NY – NYSERDA: ACPT www.nyserda.ny.gov/-/media/Files/FO/ClosedOpportunities/2013/PON2569summary.pdf NY – NYSERDA: ATT www.nyserda.ny.gov/-/media/Files/FO/Closed-Opportunities/2013/PON2781summary.pdf RI – REF http://www.riedc.com/business-services/renewable-energy TX – NTRD http://www.tceq.texas.gov/airquality/terp/ntrd.html 20 Table 3 FY2008 and FY2009 Awardees Organizations Funding Amount and Project Description FY 2008 Awardees Blue Ridge Biofuels of Asheville $77,737.00 to develop and commercialize the conversion of low quality fatty acids into biofuel through an innovative purification method. Organofuels of Asheville $81,944.00 to manufacture algae based fuel for gasoline engines. The project offers the promise of making algae oil products completive with gasoline. Ecocurrent of Raleigh $100,000.00 for a novel technological process that will divert hog manure from lagoons and convert it to electric power in an economically viable manner and valuable byproducts such as fertilizer and building materials. Evans Environmental of Wilson $75,000.00 to remove residual water in the final stage of biodiesel production. The innovative process will facilitate production of commercial grade biodiesel by 300%. Alganomics of Southport $60,000.00 to produce reliable, environmentally responsible, natural and renewable bioproducts from algal sources, and promote the use of renewable energy alternatives. The primary bioproduct is extracted oil/fatty acids for use as a biodiesel fuel feedstock. Kyma Technologies of Raleigh $60,000.00 will work with researchers at North Carolina State University to develop a normallyoff power switch using novel process enabled by high quality substrates developed by Kyma. 3F, LLC of Raleigh $100,000.00 will develop a new natural fiber reinforced concrete formulation. The resulting lighter weight and yet stronger and tougher concrete will directly enhance the merits of precast concrete. Less weight for the same structural efficiency will reduce material use and dead load, and save transportation cost. Piedmont Biofuels of Pittsboro $75,000.00 to implement a cavitational reactor to produce biodiesel fuel. The process uses less energy, has a much smaller physical footprint, and causes a more complete reaction with higher fuel yields. $57,319.00 to manufacture a novel thermoelectric power generator capable of converting waste heat into usable electrical power. Nextreme Thermal of Durham Rain Water Solutions of Raleigh $18,000.00 to develop the foundation for a new rain barrel manufacturing process that allows mass production capabilities to 1) meet increasing demand in a timely manner and 2) provide an inexpensive, appealing option to consumers desiring to collect rainwater. Nanotech Labs of Yadkinville $70,000.00 to develop and commercialize an ultra-capacitor as an energy storage device that has extremely high volumetric capacitance but small overall dimensions. 21 Phasetek of Greensboro $75,000.00 to develop a new class of thermal transfer and storage building material for wallboards in order to facilitate thermal efficiency in buildings. Sencera of Charlotte $100,000.00 to implement a Photovoltaic Solar Cell production facility in North Carolina based on a new thin-film manufacturing technology. FY 2009 Awardees Aerofab Manufacturing Corporation $45,435.00 to increase the efficiency of mist eliminators in metalworking facilities while decreasing the associated waste stream. Energy and water consumption are decreased. Caldwell Community College and Technical Institute $81,000.00 to build a mobile vehicle for green project demonstrations to educate residents and students on the green economy and how it can impact their business. Centralina Council of Governments $85,000.00 to integrate existing Charlotte-Mecklenburg Utilities (CMU) facilities and services with new biodiesel and create a market for brown grease (waste oil from food preparation found in the wastewater stream) as an input to biofuel production. Clean Marine Solutions $84,602.00 to fund a wastewater treatment system prototype that cleans water used in high-pressure boat cleaning that is currently polluting the water at marinas all over the country. CPS Biofuels $50,000.00 to develop a fuel additive made from glycerol (a waste product of biodiesel production). The additive improves fuel economy in gasoline and diesel engines by increasing octane. EnSolve Biosystems $50,000.00 to develop an oil water separator technology for small boats that uses bacteria to reduce/remove oil contamination from effluent that flows back into the waterways. FLS Energy Finance $60,000.00 to develop a solar hot water installation and financing system, which reduces the upfront cost of solar power and allows more consumers access to this green technology. Innova Homes $51,160.00 to develop a hybrid green modular product that merges the energy and material efficiencies of structural polyurethane-insulated floor, wall and roof panels with the factory construction cost and quality efficiencies of modular home construction. InnovaTech $53,317.00 to develop a novel method to harvest algae for use in biofuel production. This project will increase the efficiency of algae-to-biofuels conversion. Microcell Corporation $80,000.00 to produce environmentally-friendly fuel cells for emergency generator substations as an alternative to existing expensive and hazardous acid cell batteries with a shorter life span. N.C. State University $95,000.00. Funds will be used towards becoming an accreditation agency 22 Solar Center for solar thermal manufacturers. Currently Florida is the only U.S. state providing certifications, resulting in a 2-year backlog limiting companies from expanding their business and creating jobs. PlotWatt (formerly VisibleEnergy) $40,000.00 to implement a home energy monitoring system that monitors specific appliances and behaviors that directly impact energy consumption. The technology calculates exactly how much energy can be saved. Semprius $99,486.00 to develop a Concentrated Photovoltaic system to concentrate solar energy through a lens, reducing the amount of expensive silicone cell needed and improving the overall efficiency of the system while reducing costs. Vesture Corporation $75,000.00 to ramp up production of a new home insulation product that uses phase change materials, reducing consumers’ energy costs. Sources: Green Business Fund 2007-2008 Report (North Carolina Board of Science and Technology, 2008). Fiscal Year 2009 Report (North Carolina Board of Science and Technology, 2009). 23 Table 4 Descriptive Statistics: Mean Values (standard deviations) [t-test standard errors*] Population of Grant Recipients 70.37 (20.80) Survey Respondents 68.75 (21.13) NonRespondents 83.33 (14.43) Difference in Means 14.58 [9.38] Age 12.57 (11.02) 13.29 (11.49) 6.758 (1.592) -6.535 [2.52] Employ 34.07 (121.5) 37.25 (128.8) 8.667 (4.041) -28.58 [26.38] C-Corp 0.519 (0.509) 0.500 (0.511) 0.667 (0.577) 0.167 [0.35] Public 0.111 (0.320) 0.125 (0.338) 0 (0) -0.125 [0.07] 27 24 3 - Grant ($1000) N *t-test standard errors were calculated assuming unequal variances. 24 Table 5 Descriptive Statistics on Benefit and Cost Category Variables (n=24, $1000s and rounded) Category To-Date Own Sales To-Date Licensing Revenues To-Date Sales Subtotal Mean Std. Dev. Minimum Own and Licensee Sales 796.3 3463.2 0 12.5 61.2 0 808.8 3524.3 0 Maximum Total 17000 300 17300 19111.5 300 19411.5 Expected Own Sales Expected Licensing Revenues Expected Sales Subtotal 649 45.2 694.2 2090.2 162.1 2143.8 0 0 0 10000 750 10300 15575 1085 16660 Total Sales 1503 5633.4 0 27600 36071.5 Patent Value Patent Pending Value Copyright Value Copyright Pending Value Intellectual Property Values 0 0 3333.3 11196.5 21.0 102.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50000 500 0 0 80000 505 0 Total IP Value 3354.4 0 50000 80505 50300 116576.5 109.5 6500 7205.5 2080.6 16621.9 18702.5 Total Sales + IP Value Grant Funding** Additional Investment Total Investment 11200.2 Total Sales and Intellectual Property Values 4857.4 12697.2 0 Project Costs* 77.1 22.8 632.5 1622.5 692.7 1685.6 * 19.71 0 54.8 Costs were adjusted to $2012 by a chained Gross Domestic Product deflator. (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2014). ** Grant values include investment in non-respondent firms. 25 Table 6 Calculated Elasticities that Yield B/C = 1 (1) Case 1 2 3 4 5 6 (2) No reasonable substitute 19.45 35.70 114.22 2.97 4.96 14.75 (3) m=3 (4) m=2 (5) m=1.5 (6) m=1.1 (7) m=1.05 (8) m=1.01 19.45 35.70 114.22 2.77 4.92 14.75 19.45 35.70 114.22 2.45 4.78 14.75 19.44 35.70 114.22 1.96 4.32 14.72 17.41 35.00 114.22 1.33 2.73 12.20 14.34 31.70 113.99 1.25 2.45 9.90 10.40 20.92 90.84 1.19 2.25 7.64 Notes: The cases include alternate specifications of revenues (denoted B) and costs (denoted C). These values are drawn from the Total column of Table 5. Case 1: B = To-Date Sales Subtotal; C = Grant Funding Case 2: B = Total Sales; C = Grant Funding Case 3: B = Total Sales + IP Value; C = Grant Funding Case 4: B = To-Date Sales Subtotal; C = Total Investment Case 5: B = Total Sales; C = Total Investment Case 6: B = Total Sales + IP Value; C = Total Investment 26 Table 7 Comparison of Results from Allen et al. (2012) with the Extended Model (1) Case 1 2 3 4 5 6 (2) No reasonable substitute 19.45 35.70 114.22 2.97 4.96 14.75 (3) m=1.5 (4) m=1.1 (5) m=1.05 (6) m=1.01 (7) Allen et al. 19.44 35.70 114.22 1.96 4.32 14.72 17.41 35.00 114.22 1.33 2.73 12.20 14.34 31.70 113.99 1.25 2.45 9.90 10.40 20.92 90.84 1.19 2.25 7.64 14.20 26.39 85.29 1.77 3.30 10.67 Notes: The cases include alternate specifications of revenues (denoted B) and costs (denoted C). These values are drawn from the Total column of Table 5. Case 1: B = To-Date Sales Subtotal; C = Grant Funding Case 2: B = Total Sales; C = Grant Funding Case 3: B = Total Sales + IP Value; C = Grant Funding Case 4: B = To-Date Sales Subtotal; C = Total Investment Case 5: B = Total Sales; C = Total Investment Case 6: B = Total Sales + IP Value; C = Total Investment 27 States with Sustainability Technology Programs (Cumulative) Figure 1 Cumulative Number of States with Sustainability Technology Programs 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Years 28 2000 2005 2012 Figure 2 Graphical Illustration of the Extended Model 29 Figure 3 Graphical Illustration of the Extended Model with a Substitute Technology p Price m=1.5 p* A O B C x* x Quantity 30 Figure 4 Changes in ε for which B/C = 1 relative to changes in m 16 14 Elasticity Required for B/C = 1 12 Case 4 Case 5 Case 6 10 8 6 4 2 0 1 1.5 2 Relative Price of Substitute, m 31 2.5 3 Appendix A: Step-by-Step Derivation of Total Surplus in the Extended Model π₯ = ππ−π π₯ ∗ = ππ∗ −π 1 ππ = ( ) (π∗ π₯ ∗ ) π No Substitute Case ∞ πΆπ = ∫ ππ−π ππ π∗ π = lim ∫ ππ−π ππ π→∞ π∗ = lim [1/(1 − π)](ππ1−π )]ππ∗ π→∞ = lim [ π→∞ =0−[ 1 1 ] (ππ1−π ) − [ ] (ππ∗1−π ) 1−π 1−π 1 ] (ππ∗1−π ) 1−π =[ 1 ] (ππ∗ −π )π∗ π−1 =[ 1 ] (π₯ ∗ π∗ ) π−1 1 1 TS = (π ) (π∗ π₯ ∗ ) + [π−1] (π₯ ∗ π∗ ) Substitutes Case ππ∗ πΆπ = ∫ ππ−π ππ π∗ =[ 1 ∗ ] (ππ1−π )]ππ ∗ π 1−π 32 =[ 1 1 ] (π(ππ∗ )1−π ) − [ ] (ππ∗1−π ) 1−π 1−π =[ 1 ] (ππ∗1−π )(π1−π − 1) 1−π =[ 1 ] (ππ∗ −π )π∗ (1 − π1−π ) π−1 = [ 1 ] π∗ π₯ ∗ (1 − π1−π ) π−1 TS = {(1/π) + [1/(π − 1)](1 − π1−π )}(π∗ π₯ ∗ ) 33