Process versus Product Innovation: What difference does it make?∗ Jordi Jaumandreu†and Jacques Mairesse‡ March 16, 2015 Abstract This note explores the structural specification of the impact of innovation on the cost and demand functions of the firms and estimates several models with a role for both indicators. We find that the introduction of process and product innovations affects differently the demand and production functions of the firm. Both product and process innovation shift the demand for the products of the firm. Process innovation reduces production marginal cost, but not always. A possibility, that we cannot neither prove nor reject with the current specification, is that process innovations associated to product innovations raise marginal cost. Another relevant finding is that advertising significantly affects demand but we can exclude, as expected, that affects production marginal cost. To obtain richer conclusions, an enlargement of the model will be needed. ∗ We thank Xin Qi for research assistance, Sabien Dobbelaere, Ivan Fernadez-Val and Mark Roberts for comments, and the audiences at the London and Paris CDM workshops. † * Boston University and CEPR.Department of Economics, Boston University, 270 Bay State Road, MA 02215, Boston, USA. E-mail: jordij@bu.edu ‡ ** CREST-ENSAE (Paris), UNU-MERIT (Maastricht University) and NBER.CREST-ENSAE, 15, Boulevard Gabriel Peri, 92245 Malakoff cedex, France. E-mail: Mairesse@ensae.fr. 1 1. Introduction Firms perform R&D to obtain and introduce process and product innovations. The process of discovery and development of innovations embodies uncertainty, and hence the timing of the resulting innovations and its introduction is also be characterized by some randomness. The distinction between process and product innovations, formalized by OECD in the Oslo manual in 1992, picks up a fundamental distinction of innovative activities. Sometimes the firm wants to change cost by altering the process of production, sometimes to enhance demand by developing the products that sells. It seems clear, however, that at least some process innovations may also change the nature of the product and affect demand, and some product innovations need associated process changes. Firm-level data collection in different surveys have made available counts of innovations since 1992 distinguishing process and product innovations. Researchers have struggled to use both indicators in their productivity equations, with quite diverse results, and many problems about this use of the indicators and the interpretation of results remain. Crepon, Duguet and Mairesse (1998), CDM, was the first paper that formalized the process of R&D in different stages. They first allowed for an equation representing the decision of the firm to carry out R&D. Then they introduced a production function of knowledge, that is a function of production of innovations as the result of the R&D investments. Finally, they specified the introduction of these innovations as impacting productivity over time in a Cobb-Douglas production function. R&D was the natural instrument to asses the role of these innovations in the production function. CDM measured innovations alternatively by patents and the share of innovative sales. Notice that the first variable is an innovation indicator and the second a product innovation measurement. Since then many papers have adopted the staggered modeling of the production of innovations and the impact of innovations on productivity. In doing this, they use to take advantage of the availability of process and product innovation indicators. A good example is Griffith, Huergo, Mairesse and Peters (2006), who introduce process and product innovation in a Cobb-Douglas production function, after modeling separately the production of 2 both type of innovations. GHMP use firm samples for France, Germany, Spain and UK, find a significant impact of product innovation everywhere except in Germany, but process innovation is only significant in France. The authors are surprised by the lack of association between productivity and process innovation and conjecture in page 493 that “...could correspond to the fact that we are measuring revenue productivity (deflated by industry deflators, not by individual firm deflators)”. More recently, Peters, Roberts, Vuong and Fryges (2014) constitute a notable example of dynamic paper that also carefully models the generation of process and product innovations. Productivity follows a Markov process that shifts with their introduction. Product innovations turn out to be only significant, however, in the high-tech industries, while process innovations only show a weaker significance in low-tech industries. The productivity to be explained in PRVF is explicitly a combined form that mixes the efficiency of the firm with the demand shifts and that it is called “revenue productivity”.1 In this sense it inherits the same context as in GHMP. A somewhat more structural use of the indicators of process and product innovation is done in Harrison, Jaumandreu, Mairesse and Peters (2014). HJMP derive a labor demand equation where there is a separated role for the increase of the efficiency of production, as a direct driver of employment reductions for a given output, and an output effect coming through the demand enlargements induced by new products. Product innovation effects are always well estimated and process innovations are often significant despite the lack of deflators. Another related paper is Jaumandreu and Lin (2014), which emphasizes the modeling of firms’ marginal cost as depending on both process and product innovation and starts an exploration of its transmission to prices. Preliminary estimates point out that both process and product innovations increase productivity, but with non-trivial patterns. Jaumandreu and Mairesse (2010), henceforth JM, is up to our knowledge the first paper 1 There is a literature started with Klette and Griliches (1996) which tries to solve the problem of esti- mating without prices by nesting the production function in the (inverted) demad function of the firm. A recent example is de Loecker (2011). PRVF nest maginal cost in the direct demand and explicitly consider a persistent demand shifter. 3 that has tried an structural modeling of process and product innovation, separating their effects in the marginal cost and demand functions of the firm, i.e. on productivity and demand shifts. There is a version currently in progress, Jaumandreu and Mairesse (2013). This note reports the work done and the problems encountered in the structural specification of the effects of innovation. The rest of this note is organized as follows. In Section 2 we describe the context of estimation. Section 3 biefly comments the data. Then Section 4 discusses the results of carrying out estimations of models with exogenous innovation, and Section 5 instrumenting innovation. Section 6 briefly discusses the exclusion of advertising from the marginal cost equation. Section 7 ends the note with some concluding remarks. 2. Context JM specify a system of two equations, the short-run marginal cost function and the demand function of a firm. Marginal cost is the short-run marginal cost because capital is given, and hence it depends on capital, the prices of the variables factors -labor and materials-, and output. Marginal cost depends in addition on the unobservable level of productivity of the firm 1 Demand represents the demand relationship of a monopolistically competitive firm, which depends on the price set by the firm given the prices of the other firms (picked up by the time dummies). Demand also depends on an unobserved demand advantage of the firm represented by 2 . The system can be written as = ( 1 ) = ( 2 ) (1) where stands for capital, and for the price of labor and materials, for output, and for output price. In this note, we are going to assume that 1 and 2 follow random walk with drift 4 processes, that is 1 = 1−1 + 1 1 + 1 2 = 2−1 + 2 2 + 2 (2) where 1 and 2 represent variables that shift productivity and demand advantages and hence marginal cost and demand.2 As a link between the two equations a pricing rule is assumed to hold: firms set price with a margin on marginal cost according to the elasticity of demand, = −1 As a first approximation, the elasticity of demand is considered constant. Both equations are hence subject to persistent displacements that represent changes in the firm productivity and improvements of demand, respectively. The value of the shifters 1 and 2 may be endogenously determined by the firm but, as long as this determination is previous to the current period and the process for 1 and 2 are well specified, this value is going to be orthogonal to the unforecastable random shocks 1 and 2 We are going to consider the following shifters: the state of the market, advertising of the firm and innovation. Variable stands for the state of the market of the firm (an index which takes three values corresponding to three states: recessive, stable or expansive). Variable is the rate of change in advertising expenditures of the firm. And variables 1 and 2 are generic indicators of the innovations introduced by the firm (see below for their specification). Log differentiating equations (1), inserting equations (2) and specifying the shifters, representing rates of growth by lowercase letters, the system can be written as 1 + + + ( − 1) + 1 + 1 1 + 1 = − + 2 + + 2 2 + 2 = − 2 (3) The random walk process is only a simplifying assumption to be relaxed and tested in more complex specifications. Notice, however, that a number of works that assume an autoregressive process in productivity get as a result an autoregressive coefficient quite near to one (see, for example, Peters, Roberts, Vuong and Fryges (2014)). 5 where we write the short run elasticity of scale as (≡ + ) Variables , , , , and are the rates of growth of marginal cost,3 price, output, capital, and the prices of the two variable factors, labor and materials, respectively. Market dynamism is included in both equations, advertising only in the demand equation, and innovation effects in both equations. That dynamism of the market is a shifter of demand seems obvious. But it is less clear why this variable should be included in the cost equation. We include it because in practice seems to be important but we should precise two things. First, that its impact in the cost equation is significant but small and systematically negative. Second, that we can drop this variable from the cost equation without a significant change in the estimates (except that the error is then correlated with the cycle). The reasons for these facts are worthy of further investigation that we leave for the future. We carry later a test to confirm that advertising only affects demand, as the theory of production establishes (advertising is not a factor of production, but an investment to impact consumers demand), i.e. that advertising can be excluded as a shifter of the cost equation. Our main interest in this note is to establish how process and product innovation should structurally enter cost and demand. We are going to consider four alternative specifications, that we will call unrestricted, non-specialized, specialized and mixed, respectively. We observe the introduction of two different type of innovations, process and product innovations. A-priory it is not completely clear if they impact cost, demand, or both relationships. Hence, we may want to start with a general model that allows for all type of effects: 1 1 = 11 + 12 + 13 × 2 2 = 21 + 22 + 23 × 3 (4) Notice that, with constant short-run elasticity of scale, the growth of marginal and average costs are the same, so we simply write for the rate of growth of average variable cost. 6 where is a dummy of process innovation and a dummy of product innovation. This is the unrestricted model. The effects in (4) nest three models of particular interest. If product, process innovations and simultaneous process and product innovations have the same impact, the right model can be obtained by imposing the restrictions 11 = 12 = − 13 and 21 = 22 = − 23 The model can then simply be written as 1 1 = 1 2 2 = 2 (5) where = 1( = 1 or = 1) is a simple dummy of innovation We call this the non-specialized model or specification, where the only thing that really maters is innovation whatever is its character. If, alternatively, process innovation affects cost only and product innovation affects demand only, the restrictions 12 = 0 13 = 0 and 22 = 0 23 = 0 determine the model 1 1 = 1 2 2 = 2 (6) We call this specification the specialized model, since each kind of innovation affects a particular equation. Of course there is little economic sense if any in defining a model that reverses the role of process and product innovation (affecting to demand and cost respectively). But the data have convinced us of the possible validity of a combination of models (5) and (6), 1 1 = 1 2 2 = 2 (7) that we call mixed model. Process innovation is the only innovation affecting cost but both process and product innovation affect demand in the same way. 7 3. Data We present estimates based on ten (unbalanced) industry samples, which in total amount to more than 2,400 Spanish manufacturing firms and 20,000 observations, corresponding to the period 1990-2006. All variables come from the survey ESEE (Encuesta Sobre Estrategias Empresariales), a firm-level panel survey of Spanish manufacturing starting in 1990. The survey provides a random sample of Spanish manufacturing with the largest firms oversampled. A Data Appendix provides the details on the sample composition and variables definition. Let us briefly detail the variables that we use. On the one hand, we have the more usual variables: output (deflated production) and an estimate of capital stock. We compute variable cost as the sum of the wage bill and intermediate consumption, and estimate the hourly wage by dividing the wage bill by total hours of work. But we also have some less usual firm-level variables which play an important role in our estimations. Firstly, we have the yearly (average) output price change as reported by the firm that we use to get the output index from nominal production. Secondly, firms also provide an (average) estimate of the change in the cost of inputs grouped in three sets: energy, materials and services, which are combined in a price index for materials. Finally, we can compute a firm specific user cost of capital using the interest rate paid by the longterm debt of the firm plus the rough estimate of a 0.15 depreciation rate and minus the consumer prices index variation. We are going to use the following shifters: a dummy representing the introduction of process innovations, a dummy reporting the introduction of product innovations, the rate of increase of firm advertising, and an index of the dynamism of the firm’s specific market. Finally, we have the R&D expenditures of the firm that we are going to use to instrument the innovations. Table 1 shows the size of the samples and descriptive statistics. Table 2 provides detail on the innovation variables. 8 4. Results with exogenous innovation Marginal cost and demand functions Let’s start by describing how we estimate the equations corresponding to the specification of the marginal cost and demand functions leaving aside the shifters. Quantity and price are the endogenous variables included in the right side of the equations, respectively. Other variables are capital and prices, and both equations include constant and 15 time dummies. Our capital variable is in fact capital times the utilization of capacity. Capital and prices should be both exogenous but we need, however, to instrument them in the first equation, presumably by a problem of errors in variables. The fact that we are estimating in differences may be, as it is well known, exacerbating this problem. We employ the user cost of capital and the variable utilization of capacity as instruments aimed at picking up the variations of capital. Simultaneously, we use the levels of the wage and price of materials index to help the estimation of the price coefficients (a solution in the tradition of panel data GMM estimates). This is enough for identification, because we have to estimate only three elasticities in the first equation and the elasticity of demand in the second equation.4 Two important aspects should be precised. The right variable to include in the right hand side of the demand equation is price, but we are only able to include it in six industries. In industries 2,4,5 and 10 we have not been able to get meaningful estimates with the (variation of) price and we have replaced it by the (variation of) cost. If the markup were invariant, these two forms of the equations should be completely equivalent. As they are not, at least for some industries, this means that in the future we should do an effort to model independently the price in a third equation and try to include it properly in all industries. Also, when we use price as explanatory variable in the demand equation, as a matter of 4 In fact this way of instrumenting gives one overidentification restriction in the first equation and three in the second. When we take the shifters as exogenous this gives another overidentification restriction in the first equation, where advertising is not included as regressor. This gives a total of 5 restrictions, which drop to 4 when we do not use utilization of capacity to instrument the second equation (see below). In industry 10, the restrictions fall because we take capital as exogenous. 9 fact we have to drop utilization of capacity as instrument in this particular equation. We are going to keep fixed this form of instrumenting in all our subsequent experiments. We can see the results in tables 3 and 4. Table 1 allows to check that the estimation of the elasticities is very reasonable, although sometimes a little imprecise. Notice that we are estimating production elasticities with variation in prices, something fully supported by duality but not usual. In particular, all long-run returns to scale are sensible and not too far from unity and all the elasticities of demand significantly above unity as expected. Table 4 shows that the specification test is however not passed at standard levels of signification in five industries. We attribute this to the specification of the shifters of both equations and continue with our exercises in the hope that a better specification will improve these overidentification tests. Unrestricted innovation effects Our first estimate, reported in Table 3, includes the unrestricted innovation effects of equation (4). All shifters, including these unrestricted innovation effects are taken as exogenous. The innovation effects are imprecisely estimated, what is the likely result of a high degree of multicollinearity of the innovation dummies (correlation between the dummies is high, see Table 2). But the results also point out to a high heterogeneity of the effects. A detailed reading of the cost effects shows a somewhat dominant pattern. In six industries both process and product innovation tend to show a negative sign together with a positive interaction effect. And a detailed reading of the demand effects reveals a different dominant pattern, a little more significant. In seven industries both process and product innovation are positive while the interaction effect is negative. We conclude that innovations seem to reduce cost but not as clearly when process is associated to product innovation. And also that both innovations tend to increase demand, both in isolation and when associated. Restricting the effect of innovation We try to get a more precise idea by restricting the effects to give the models implied by equations (5), (6) and (7), the non-specialized, specialized and mixed models respectively. As each restricted model is nested in the general equations (4), the restrictions can be tested by means of a difference of the values of the second stage objective functions, conveniently 10 scaled, when they have been obtained by using the weighting matrix of the unrestricted estimate. This difference is distributed as an 2 with degrees of freedom equal to the number of restrictions, that are always 4. The results of the test are reported in columns 3 to 8 of Table 4. The results are somewhat defavorable to restrict the innovation effects to the effects of the specialized model. In five industries the restriction is statistically rejected at standard levels of significance. Less defavorable are the results of the non-specialized and mixed models. The non-specialized model is only rejected in one industry, the mixed model in three. No one of these two models seems to be clearly better. We conclude that it seems quite well statistically established that both process and product innovations have an impact in demand but we have no ground to clearly reject that the relevant cost variable is process innovation. A model with exogenous innovation The previous result suggests that there is a chance that the non-specialized model, a model that simply includes an (exogenous) dummy of innovation in each equation, works properly. Table 5 reveals, however, that this is not the case. We tried to include innovation in the cost function both contemporaneously and lagged. We retain the results with lagged innovation because they are slightly better. Elasticities and the effects of the rest of the shifters stay basically the same. But innovation is only fully significant in the demand equation in six industries and process innovation in none. Moreover, the specification test is now not passed in six industries. 5. Results instrumenting innovation What kind of endogeneity? From the previous exercises we conclude that, in addition of heterogeneous innovation effects, we have a problem of errors in variables that is likely to create correlation of the dummies with the residuals and hence some biases. Errors in variables in all the innovation dummies (process, product and the innovation dummy) are likely to arise by several motives. 11 The first reason is the unweighted character of these count indicators. Reduction of cost or increase of demand are likely to change in size according to the character of the innovation, in particular the degree of research and hence the novelty that it embodies. One can argue that the replacement of the relevant quantitative innovation variable by the dummy is likely to bias towards zero the estimated coefficient.5 A second reason is that these yearly count indicators can hardly give account of the relevant timing of the introduction of innovations and the lags in their impact. Part of the problem can be addressed by using R&D expenditure as instrument.6 For example, in this exercise we construct an instrument that is equal to the (log of) the sum of the R&D expenses accumulated by the firm since the latest innovation, if there is innovation, and zero if there is no innovation. This instrument can help to address the problem because its correlation with the size of the innovation effect. But we cannot distinguish between R&D expenditures in process and product innovation and hence we have only one instrument. This sets a radical limitation about what we can do in practice, because we cannot hope to instrument unrestricted innovation effects with only one instrument. A possible solution would be the discovery of more instruments by setting a structural model of process and product innovation. But this is a complex task in itself that lies out of the scope of this note. Models, instruments and tests Hence, we are going to estimate and compare the three models that only include one innovation indicator in each equation using the same set of instruments. Recall that the non-specialized model includes a dummy of innovation in both equations, and the specialized includes the dummy of process innovation in the cost equation and the dummy of product innovation in the demand equation. The mixed model includes process innovation in the cost equation and the dummy of innovation in the demand equation. Whatever indicator is 5 Assume that the true model should include a term and the variable size is replaced by the dummy, that is related to size by the linear predictor = 0 + 1 + The included term will be and the disturbance of the equation will contain − 1 The dummy is negatively correlated with this component of the error. 6 This is a arrangement of the type that Wooldridge (2010) calls "multiple indicator solution". 12 used, we lag it one period in the cost equation (they seem to give better results). In what follows, we describe the common way to instrument innovation. We firstly include product innovation as instrument in the cost equation and process innovation as instrument in the demand equation. We hope that their possible errors do not invalidate them as instruments. Their main paper is to help to predict the endogenous variable of the equation in which they are used as instruments (hence product innovation helps to predict output and process innovation cost). Secondly, we include the variable accumulated R&D (since the latest innovation) in both equations, lagged in the cost equation because the innovation regressor is going to be lagged. The three models hence diverge in the innovation regressors and use the same set of instruments. We therefore compare them by means of a Rivers-Vuong type of test for non nested models (see Rivers and Vuong, 2002). The test consists of computing the difference of the value of the objective functions of the first stage estimates, divided by an estimate of the variance of this difference.7 The test is distributed as an standard Normal and then a positive (negative) significant value implies that the second (first) model is better than the other. Table 6 reports the value of the objective functions (columns 1 to 3), and the values of the test with their probability values in columns 4 to 6. The non-specialized model turns out to be significantly better than the specialized model in four industries, at different degrees of signification (5% in industry 1, 10% in industry 3 and 15% in industries 7 and 9). The mixed model is also significantly better than the specialized model in four industries (1 and 3 at 10%, 7 and 9 at 15%). The non-specialized and mixed models fit the data quite similarly in any industry. We are going however to retain the mixed model because it seems to marginally give better results. Table 7 reports the estimates generated by this model. An structural model of product and process innovation In this instrumental variables estimation we have added 2 overidentification restrictions, since we have one additional endogenous variable and two additional instruments per equation. This makes a total of 6 restrictions in most of industries (but see footnote 2). Despite 7 See e.g. Doraszelski and Jaumandreu (2013) for an application. 13 that the specification has improved we still have four industries in which the specification test is not passed. So they remain some specification problems. The elasticities in Table 7 are sensible, with little changes with respect to the previous estimates and again sometimes a little imprecisely estimated. The market dynamism variable diminishes cost and increases demand in all cases, 8 of them significantly in each equation. The advertising variable shifts demand significantly in all 10 cases. Product innovation increases demand in all cases, 8 of them significantly. Process innovation at moment − 1 that is the variable included in the cost function, is significant in 5 cases. In 3 out of the 5 it decreases cost but in the other 2 it increases it. In four more cases the effects are close to statistical significance, again split in two negative and two positive. Our interpretation is that we are only able to estimate a reduced form of the effects in the cost function, and that this reduced form implies both global negative and real positive cases. Part of the process innovations seem to increase cost very clearly. But we do not know which is this part and why it dominates in some industries. The most likely explanation is that process innovations associated to product innovations decrease the efficiency of the firm. This seems something sensible, as these new processes may well imply some not fully observed changes in the inputs (as labor skills, quality of materials, managerial abilities or production organization). We cannot disentangle the effects without, at least, more instruments, and these instruments are unavailable. 6. Advertising We have included market dynamism in both equations and discussed te best specification for the innovation dummies but, is advertising rightly excluded from the cost equation? To answer this question we estimate the model that we have retained extended to include advertising in both equations. Using this unrestricted estimate we apply the same type of test that for restricting the effects of innovation. In this case the restriction to be tested is simply if we can consider that the estimated coefficient on advertising in the cost equation can be shut down to zero. 14 The result of the test is quite drastic as can be checked in Table 6 columns 7 and 8. In seven sectors we can accept the exclusion of advertising in the cost equation with high levels of confidence. In the remaining 3 sectors we cannot, but we cannot because just the role that advertising has picked up in the unrestricted model is perverse. In industries 4 and 5 advertising has in the cost function a significant positive effect at the expense of the coefficient on capital (the coefficient of capital, that is negative, becomes positive or zero respectively). In industry 6, the impact of advertising is negative, diminishing cost. We conclude that the exclusion of advertising from the cost equation constitutes the imposition of a theoretical restriction fully accepted by the data. 5. Concluding remarks We have explored the structural specification of innovation effects by means of dummy variables representing the introduction of process innovations, product innovations or simply innovations. We want to pickup the effects of innovation in the productivity-induced variations of the marginal cost function of the firm and in the shifts of its demand function. The specification of unrestricted exogenous innovation effects detects heterogeneity that cannot be fully assessed because the signs of colinearity in the estimation of the coefficients and a likely problem of errors in variables. The models instrumenting innovation are however compelled to the use of only one instrument for the innovation effects, because is all what we have correlated with the size of the effects. Comparing different specifications we arrive to two main conclusions that reinforce the suggestions of the previous estimates. On the one hand, it seems to be not much difference in the impact on demand of product innovation only, process innovation only and simultaneous process and product innovations. On the other, it seems clear that process innovations sometimes reduce cost and sometimes increase cost. The problem is that we can only get a reduced form of the effects in the cost function. The conjecture, that we cannot prove with our unique instrument, is that some process innovations associated to product innovations raise costs. These findings are important because they can explain the lack of robustness of innova- 15 tion effects estimated in different productivity equations. First, if the researcher includes both process and product innovation in an specification that embodies both productivity evolution and demand shifts, the results can be very different according to the correlations which dominate in the data set. Process innovation can be picking up efficiency and demand shifts but also may turn out to have no effect or a less significant effect if it is negatively related to efficiency. At the same time, a product innovation dummy may be mainly estimating the demand effect but also show a reduced or even non significant effect because of its possible negative efficiency effect. Second, if the equation can be argued not to significantly include demand shifts (for example because revenue has been effectively deflated), a positive significant effect for process innovation seems not to be warranted and obtaining it for product innovation may be something definitely harder. Third, the substitution of an innovation dummy for the two effects is likely to mix the effects in any way. Are there any solutions for the structural estimation of process and product innovation effects? One first solution, already mentioned, is the enlargement of the set of available instruments. The reasonable way to do this is specifying and estimating equations for the production of process and product innovations that can select some variables particularly correlated with the introduction of one or the other type of innovation. These variables would be suitable instruments. These equations are not easy to specify because, with panel data, in addition of the problem of the type of innovation we need to predict the timing of the introduction. A second possible solution is to construct a sort of latent variable model, in which the effects of the unique dummy introduced in each equation correspond to a particular theoretically restricted combination of process and product effects. A model of this type can possibly infer structural effects from the estimated coefficients and correlations in the data. Both avenues seem worthy of being pursued in future research. 16 Data Appendix: All employed variables come from the information furnished by firms to the ESEE survey (Encuesta Sobre Estrategias Empresariales), a firm-level panel survey of Spanish manufacturing starting in 1990 and sponsored by the Ministry of Industry. The unit surveyed is the firm, not the plant or establishment, and some closely related firms answer as a group. At the beginning of this survey, firms with fewer than 200 workers were sampled randomly by industry and size strata, retaining 5%, while firms with more than 200 workers were all requested to participate, and the positive answers represented a more or less self-selected 60%. To preserve representation, samples of newly created firms were added to the initial sample every subsequent year. At the same time, there are exits from the sample, coming from both death and attrition. The two motives can be distinguished and attrition was maintained to sensible limits. Table A1 gives the composition of the sample according to the number of years that the firms stay in it. Definition of variables Advertising: Firm’s advertising expenditure. Average cost: Firm’s variable costs (wage bill plus the cost of materials) divided by output. Capital : Capital at current replacement values is computed recursively from an initial estimate and the data on current firms’ investments in equipment goods (but not buildings or financial assets), updated by means of a price index of capital goods, and using industry estimates of the rates of depreciation. Real capital is then obtained by deflating the current replacement values. In the regressions we the utilization of capacity times capital (see below for utilization of capacity). Market dynamism: Weighted index of the market dynamism reported by the firm for the markets in which it operates. The index can take the values 0 (slump), 0.5 (stable markets), and 1 (expansion). Output: Production of goods and services. Sales plus the variation of inventories, deflated by the firm’s output price index. 17 Price of materials: Paasche-type price index computed starting from the percentage variations in the prices of purchased materials, energy and services reported by the firms. Price of the output: Paasche type price index computed starting from the percentage price changes that the firm reports to have made in the markets in which it operates. Product innovation: Dummy variable that takes the value 1 when the firm reports the introduction of product innovations. Process innovation: Dummy variable that takes the value 1 when the firm reports the introduction of a process innovation in its productive process. R&D: Total R&D expenditures of the firm. From this expenses and the innovation counts we construct an instrument that is equal to the (log of) the sum of the R&D expenses accumulated by the firm since the latest innovation, if there is innovation, and zero if there is no innovation. Utilization of capacity: Yearly average rate of capacity utilization as reported by the firm. User cost of capital : Weighted sum of the cost of the firm values for two types of long-term debt ( long-term debt with banks and other long-term debt), plus a common depreciation rate of 0.15 and minus the rate of growth of the consumer price index. Wage: Firm’s hourly wage rate (total labour cost divided by effective total hours of work). 18 References Crepon, B., E. Duguet and J. Mairesse (1998), "Research, Innovation, and Productivity: An Econometric Analysis at the Firm Level," Economics of Innovation and new Technology, 7, 115-158. de Loecker (2011), "Product Differentiation, Multiproduct Firms, and Estimating the Impact of Trade Liberalization on Productivity," Econometrica, 79, 1407-1451. Doraszelski, U. and J Jaumandreu (2013), "R&D and Productivity: Estimating Endogenous Productivity," Review of Economic Studies, 80. 1338-1383. Griffith, R., R. Harrison, J. Mairesse and B. Peters (2006), " Innovation and Productivity across Four European Countries", Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 22, 483-498. Harrison, R., J. Jaumandreu, J. Mairesse and B. Peters (2014), "Does Innovation Stimulate Employment? A Firm-level Analysis using Comparable Micro Data on Four European Countries," International Journal of Industrial Organization, 35, 29-43. Jaumandreu, J. and J. Mairesse (2010), "Innovation and Welfare: Results from Joint Estimation of Production and Demand Functions," Working Paper no. 16221, NEBR, Cambridge. Jaumandreu, J. and J. Mairesse (2013), "Innovation and Welfare: Results from Joint Estimation of Production and Demand Functions," mimeo, Boston University. Jaumandreu, J and S. Lin (2014), "Innovation and Prices," mimeo, Boston University. Klette J. and Z. Griliches (1996), “The Inconsistency of Common Scale Estimators when Output Prices are Unobserved and Endogenous,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 343-361. Peters, B., M. Roberts, V.A. Vuong and H. Fryges (2013), "Estimating Dynamic R&D Demand: An Analysis of Cost and Long-Run Benefits," mimeo, Penn State University. 19 Rivers, D. and Q. Vuong (2002), “Model Selection Tests for Nonlinear Dynamic Models,” Econometrics Journal, 5, 1-39. Wooldridge, J. (2010), Econometric Analysis of Cross-section and Panel Data, MIT Press. 20 Table 1. Descriptive statistics, 1990-2006 Output growth (s.d.) (3) Capital growth (s.d.) (4) Wage growth (s.d.) (5) Mat’s price growth (s.d) (6) Advertising growth (s.d.) (7) Market dynamism index value (s.d.) (8) Industry Obs. (1) Firms (2) 1. Metals and metal products 2365 313 0.045 (0.235) 0.055 (0.200) 0.049 (0.163) 0.041 (0.067) 0.04 (0.939) 0.600 (0.344) 2. Non-metallic minerals 1270 163 0.046 (0.228) 0.058 (0.215) 0.043 (0.144) 0.031 (0.034) 0.044 (0.876) 0.581 (0.337) 3. Chemical products 2168 299 0.060 (0.228) 0.063 (0.185) 0.047 (0.138) 0.032 (0.065) 0.026 (0.794) 0.589 (0.330) 4. Agric. and ind. machinery 1411 178 0.031 (0.252) 0.044 (0.198) 0.045 (0.150) 0.030 (0.038) 0.020 (0.786) 0.569 (0.352) 5 Electrical products 1505 209 0.059 (0.269) 0.046 (0.178) 0.051 (0.168) 0.030 (0.044) 0.036 (0.839) 0.557 (0.353) 6. Transport equipment 1206 161 0.060 (0.287) 0.050 (0.174) 0.047 (0.162) 0.028 (0.048) 0.029 (0.857) 0.569 (0.372) 7. Food, drink and tobacco 2455 327 0.023 (0.206) 0.051 (0.184) 0.052 (0.170) 0.033 (0.058) 0.046 (0.840) 0.540 (0.313) 8. Textile, leather and shoes 2368 335 0.004 (0.229) 0.035 (0.197) 0.052 (0.178) 0.031 (0.044) 0.049 (0.851) 0.436 (0.343) 9. Timber and furniture 1445 207 0.025 (0.225) 0.049 (0.174) 0.054 (0.166) 0.035 (0.039) 0.048 (0.940) 0.530 (0.338) 10. Paper and printing products 1414 183 0.031 (0.187) 0.052 (0.226) 0.052 (0.139) 0.035 (0.076) 0.029 (0.848) 0.533 (0.324) Industry Table 2: Descriptive statistics on the introduction of innovations, 1991-2006 Proportion of obs. Correlation Proc. (s.d.) Prod. (s.d.) Proc. and Prod. (s.d.) Proc. and Prod. (1) (2) (3) (4) 1. Metal and metal products 0.373 (0.484) 0.184 (0.387) 0.127 (0.333) 0.310 2. Non-metallic minerals 0.265 (0.442) 0.172 (0.378) 0.093 (0.290) 0.281 3. Chemical products 0.403 (0.490) 0.345 (0.476) 0.221 (0.415) 0.352 4. Agric. and ind. machinery 0.332 (0.471) 0.354 (0.478) 0.190 (0.392) 0.320 5. Electrical goods 0.375 (0.484) 0.365 (0.481) 0.213 (0.409) 0.326 6. Transport equipment 0.464 (0.499) 0.313 (0.464) 0.222 (0.416) 0.333 7. Food, drink and tobacco 0.305 (0.461) 0.223 (0.416) 0.154 (0.361) 0.443 8. Textile, leather and shoes 0.242 (0.482) 0.230 (0.421) 0.116 (0.320) 0.296 9. Timber and furniture 0.285 (0.451) 0.257 (0.437) 0.134 (0.340) 0.304 10. Paper and printing products 0.293 (0.455) 0.141 (0.348) (0.083) 0.277 0.265 Industry Table 3 Cost and demand functions with exogenous unrestricted process and product effects1 Cost function Shifters Price Elasticities Market Process Product elasticity Market dyn. innov. innov. Prc.×Prd. dyn. (s.e.) (s.e.) (s.e.) (s.e) (s.e.) (s.e.) (s.e.) (s.e) (s.e) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) Demand function Shifters Product Process Adv. innov. innov. (s.e.) (s.e) (s.e.) (10) (11) (12) Prc.×Prd. (s.e.) (13) 1. Metals and metal products 0.117 (0.034) 0.057 (0.043) 0.591 (0.099) -0.096 (0.032) -0.010 (0.011) -0.018 (0.014) 0.002 (0.018) 2.158 (0.657) 0.180 (0.018) 0.008 (0.005) 0.030 (0.011) 0.025 (0.018) -0.013 (0.022) 2. Non-metallic minerals 0.062 (0.059) 0.236 (0.161) 0.929 (0.290) -0.036 (0.028) 0.010 (0.012) -0.014 (0.017) 0.018 (0.024) 2.268 (1.293) 0.009 (0.073) 0.017 (0.014) 0.024 (0.031) -0.060 (0.035) 0.044 (0.048) 3. Chemical products 0.105 (0.022) 0.084 (0.082) 0.648 (0.081) -0.048 (0.016) -0.017 (0.012) -0.004 (0.012) 0.008 (0.016) 1.789 (0.556) 0.132 (0.017) 0.024 (0.008) 0.039 (0.013) 0.004 (0.014) -0.020 (0.020) 4. Agric. and ind. machinery 0.091 (0.113) 0.172 (0.146) 0.884 (0.355) -0.026 (0.063) 0.012 (0.012) -0.009 (0.012) 0.015 (0.025) 3.305 (0.989) 0.023 (0.055) 0.024 (0.019) 0.031 (0.026) 0.010 (0.025) -0.012 (0.041) 5. Electrical products 0.052 (0.049) 0.330 (0.095) 0.614 (0.159) -0.048 (0.026) -0.010 (0.014) -0.004 (0.010) 0.020 (0.015) 2.009 (0.866) 0.084 (0.035) 0.045 (0.014) 0.008 (0.027) -0.044 (0.019) 0.065 (0.037) 6. Transport equipment 0.178 (0.057) 0.285 (0.060) 0.463 (0.104) -0.074 (0.024) -0.010 (0.011) 0.010 (0.013) -0.020 (0.020) 3.021 (1.414) 0.166 (0.023) 0.018 (0.010) 0.007 (0.024) 0.021 (0.022) 0.004 (0.035) 7. Food, drink and tobacco 0.057 (0.024) 0.111 (0.057) 0.767 (0.081) -0.026 (0.013) -0.002 (0.009) -0.016 (0.008) 0.008 (0.012) 2.291 (0.608) 0.112 (0.014) 0.024 (0.007) 0.019 (0.010) 0.040 (0.011) -0.016 (0.018) 8. Textile, leather and shoes 0.070 (0.033) 0.074 (0.055) 0.648 (0.110) -0.082 (0.033) -0.012 (0.011) -0.012 (0.010) 0.030 (0.018) 4.299 (2.669) 0.240 (0.049) 0.027 (0.008) 0.027 (0.017) 0.018 (0.026) -0.056 (0.037) 9. Timber and furniture 0.074 (0.023) 0.135 (0.057) 0.606 (0.138) -0.083 (0.039) -0.021 (0.018) -0.016 (0.017) 0.018 (0.025) 3.149 (1.447) 0.171 (0.020) 0.013 (0.007) 0.053 (0.016) 0.042 (0.023) -0.028 (0.030) 10. Paper and printing products 0.041 (0.020) 0.198 (0.120) 0.663 (0.206) -0.043 (0.025) 0.008 (0.011) 0.015 (0.017) -0.026 (0.022) 1.875 (1.106) 0.058 (0.034) 0.019 (0.012) 0.043 (0.025) 0.031 (0.043) -0.069 (0.067) 1 Standard errors in parentheses, robust to arbitrary autocorrelation over time and heteroskedasticity across firms. Industry Table 4 Testing the specification and restrictions Restricting the effects to model Specif. test Non-specialized Specialized Mixed 2 ( ) val. 2 (4) val. 2 (4) val. 2 (4) val. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 1. Metals and metal products 5.855 (4) 0.210 3.610 0.461 17.000 0.002 6.379 0.173 2. Non-metallic minerals 11.264 (5) 0.046 6.944 0.139 4.557 0.336 5.923 0.205 3. Chemical products 14.445 (4) 0.006 8.622 0.071 16.975 0.002 12.051 0.017 4. Agric. and ind. machinery 10.138 (5) 0.071 3.554 0.470 4.964 0.291 1.565 0.815 5. Electrical products 16.406 (5) 0.006 24.930 0.000 24.141 0.000 24.889 0.000 6. Transport equipment 18.381 (4) 0.001 9.028 0.060 3.144 0.534 2.501 0.644 7. Food, drink and tobacco 13.756 (4) 0.008 6.813 0.146 11.678 0.020 11.303 0.023 8. Textile, leather and shoes 0.348 (4) 0.986 4.525 0.340 5.626 0.229 5.541 0.236 9. Timber and furniture 5.130 (4) 0.274 2.341 0.673 20.140 0.000 7.537 0.110 10. Paper and printing products 4.156 (3) 0.245 1.998 0.736 5.569 0.234 2.792 0.593 Industry Table 5 Cost and demand functions with exogenous innovation dummies Cost function Demand function Shifters Price Shifters Elasticities Market Innovation elasticity Market dynamism at ( − 1) dynamism Advertising (s.e.) (s.e.) (s.e.) (s.e.) (s.e.) (s.e) (s.e) (s.e.) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Innovation (s.e) (9) Specification test 2 ( ) val. (10) (11) 1. Metals and metal products 0.115 (0.035) 0.036 (0.054) 0.634 (0.094) -0.092 (0.032) -0.004 (0.007) 2.293 (0.634) 0.183 (0.018) 0.009 (0.005) 0.032 (0.009) 6.970 (4) 0.137 2. Non-metallic minerals 0.064 (0.065) 0.270 (0.189) 0.853 (0.275) -0.038 (0.030) -0.004 (0.010) 2.097 (1.144) 0.016 (0.065) 0.020 (0.013) 0.004 (0.018) 13.391 (5) 0.020 3. Chemical products 0.104 (0.022) 0.061 (0.084) 0.679 (0.080) -0.048 (0.016) 0.003 (0.006) 1.814 (0.567) 0.131 (0.017) 0.024 (0.008) 0.023 (0.010) 15.002 (4) 0.005 4. Agric. and ind. machinery 0.050 (0.129) 0.220 (0.172) 0.991 (0.403) -0.004 (0.055) 0.001 (0.008) 3.409 (1.026) 0.022 (0.054) 0.021 (0.019) 0.025 (0.019) 12.339 (5) 0.030 5. Electrical products 0.054 (0.048) 0.301 (0.092) 0.611 (0.150) -0.054 (0.027) 0.011 (0.007) 1.962 (0.859) 0.092 (0.034) 0.046 (0.014) 0.001 (0.015) 15.981 (5) 0.007 6. Transport equipment 0.181 (0.062) 0.264 (0.069) 0.487 (0.104) -0.073 (0.025) 0.003 (0.011) 3.119 (1.398) 0.164 (0.023) 0.018 (0.010) 0.017 (0.016) 18.958 (4) 0.001 7. Food, drink and tobacco 0.055 (0.025) 0.095 (0.057) 0.801 (0.078) -0.024 (0.014) -0.004 (0.005) 2.284 (0.610) 0.114 (0.014) 0.025 (0.007) 0.033 (0.007) 14.286 (4) 0.006 8. Textile, leather and shoes 0.071 (0.033) 0.057 (0.055) 0.664 (0.109) -0.082 (0.033) 0.004 (0.008) 4.058 (2.574) 0.234 (0.046) 0.026 (0.008) 0.012 (0.012) 0.737 (4) 0.947 9. Timber and furniture 0.074 (0.024) 0.097 (0.059) 0.689 (0.139) -0.074 (0.037) 0.010 (0.007) 3.685 (1.438) 0.175 (0.021) 0.015 (0.007) 0.057 (0.015) 4.450 (4) 0.349 10. Paper and printing products 0.041 (0.020) 0.217 (0.118) 0.628 (0.201) -0.044 (0.025) -0.007 (0.008) 1.821 (1.117) 0.058 (0.035) 0.019 (0.013) 0.031 (0.021) 4.604 (3) 0.203 1 Standard errors in parentheses, robust to arbitrary autocorrelation over time and heteroskedasticity across firms. Value functions M1 M2 M3 (1) (2) (3) Table 6 Testing the IV models Specialized vs Non-spec. Specialized vs Mixed (0 1) (0 1) ( val.) ( val.) (4) (5) Non-spec. vs Mixed (0 1) ( val.) (6) Advertising in the cost 2 (1) (7) exclusion function val. (8) 1. Metals and metal products 0.545 0.181 0.195 1.660 (0.952) 1.637 (0.949) -0.749 (0.227) 1.984 0.159 2. Non-metallic minerals 1.290 1.104 1.075 0.523 (0.669) 0.606 (0.728) 0.832 (0.797) 0.906 0.341 3. Chemical products 0.632 0.357 0.347 1.524 (0.936) 1.561 (0.941) 0.513 (0.696) 0.475 0.491 4. Agric. and ind. machinery 0.169 0.204 0.167 -0.134 (0.447) 0.006 (0.503) 0.689 (0.755) 5.362 0.021 5. Electrical products 0.381 0.378 0.382 0.017 (0.507) -0.008 (0.497) 0.263 (0.396) 17.360 0.000 6. Transport equipment 0.764 0.726 0.707 0.298 (0.617) 0.458 (0.676) 0.874 (0.809) 4.540 0.033 7. Food, drink and tobacco 0.322 0.192 0.191 1.072 (0.858) 1.070 (0.858) 0.115 (0.546) 3.525 0.060 8. Textile, leather and shoes 0.086 0.131 0.131 -0.496 (0.310) -0.488 (0.313) 0.003 (0.501) 0.016 0.899 9. Timber and furniture 0.558 0.214 0.225 1.204 (0.886) 1.165 (0.878) -0.470 (0.319) 0.022 0.882 10. Paper and printing products 0.407 0.236 0.231 0.931 (0.824) 0.9787 (0.836) 0.397 (0.654) 0.245 0.621 Industry Table 7 Cost and demand functions with endogenous process innovation and innovation dummies Cost function Demand function Shifters Price Shifters Elasticities Market Process In. elasticity Market dynamism at ( − 1) dynamism Advertising (s.e.) (s.e.) (s.e.) (s.e.) (s.e.) (s.e) (s.e) (s.e.) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Innovation (s.e) (9) Specification test 2 ( ) val. (10) (11) 1. Metals and metal products 0.107 (0.036) 0.139 (0.048) 0.583 (0.095) -0.079 (0.027) -0.033 (0.014) 1.984 (0.619) 0.178 (0.018) 0.010 (0.005) 0.032 (0.009) 9.873 (6) 0.130 2. Non-metallic minerals 0.094 (0.048) 0.147 (0.127) 0.747 (0.174) -0.059 (0.029) 0.040 (0.019) 2.158 (1.125) 0.015 (0.069) 0.023 (0.013) 0.033 (0.021) 10.400 (7) 0.167 3. Chemical products 0.108 (0.022) 0.103 (0.075) 0.620 (0.080) -0.050 (0.016) -0.028 (0.017) 1.599 (0.554) 0.130 (0.017) 0.023 (0.008) 0.032 (0.012) 15.887 (6) 0.014 4. Agric. and ind. machinery 0.096 (0.087) 0.110 (0.101) 0.837 (0.266) -0.044 (0.050) 0.042 (0.018) 3.766 (1.057) 0.006 (0.057) 0.032 (0.019) 0.047 (0.024) 12.482 (7) 0.086 5. Electrical products 0.053 (0.044) 0.296 (0.087) 0.606 (0.134) -0.056 (0.021) 0.020 (0.017) 1.994 (0.885) 0.085 (0.036) 0.045 (0.015) 0.041 (0.020) 16.232 (6) 0.013 6. Transport equipment 0.158 (0.052) 0.276 (0.062) 0.514 (0.114) -0.061 (0.024) 0.018 (0.017) 3.440 (1.413) 0.159 (0.023) 0.018 (0.010) 0.007 (0.019) 22.827 (6) 0.001 7. Food, drink and tobacco 0.056 (0.025) 0.126 (0.058) 0.811 (0.080) -0.018 (0.012) -0.014 (0.010) 2.280 (0.606) 0.116 (0.014) 0.026 (0.007) 0.031 (0.008) 15.612 (6) 0.016 8. Textile, leather and shoes 0.071 (0.032) 0.051 (0.048) 0.644 (0.103) -0.089 (0.032) 0.006 (0.016) 2.936 (1.481) 0.215 (0.029) 0.025 (0.007) 0.011 (0.012) 1.998 (6) 0.920 9. Timber and furniture 0.073 (0.023) 0.123 (0.057) 0.563 (0.167) -0.098 (0.047) -0.024 (0.038) 3.178 (1.346) 0.172 (0.020) 0.013 (0.007) 0.065 (0.015) 6.740 (6) 0.346 10. Paper and printing products 0.027 (0.022) 0.252 (0.121) 0.658 (0.207) -0.036 (0.024) -0.026 (0.024) 1.904 (1.129) 0.053 (0.034) 0.017 (0.013) 0.031 (0.022) 7.106 (4) 0.130 1 Standard errors in parentheses, robust to arbitrary autocorrelation over time and heteroskedasticity across firms. Table A1. Sample detail N of years in sample 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Total 1990-2006 N of firms Observations 319 957 244 976 221 1105 217 1302 213 1491 178 1424 123 1107 194 1940 131 1441 91 1092 106 1378 57 798 73 1095 97 1552 162 2754 2426 20412