NEWS Release
1615 L Street, N.W., Suite 700
Washington, D.C. 20036
Tel (202) 419-4350
Fax (202) 419-4399
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Thursday, October 22, 2009
Modest Support for “Cap and Trade” Policy
FEWER AMERICANS SEE SOLID EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Andrew Kohut, Director
Carroll Doherty and Michael Dimock, Associate Directors
Scott Keeter, Director of Survey Research
Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
202-419-4350
http://www.people-press.org
Modest Support for “Cap and Trade” Policy
FEWER AMERICANS SEE SOLID EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING
There has been a sharp decline over the past year in the percentage of Americans who say
there is solid evidence that global temperatures are rising. And fewer also see global warming as
a very serious problem – 35% say that today, down from 44% in April 2008.
The latest national survey by the Pew
Research Center for the People & the Press,
conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 4 among 1,500 adults
reached on cell phones and landlines, finds that
57% think there is solid evidence that the
average temperature on earth has been getting
warmer over the past few decades. In April
2008, 71% said there was solid evidence of
rising global temperatures.
Over the same period, there has been a
comparable decline in the proportion of
Americans who say global temperatures are
rising as a result of human activity, such as
burning fossil fuels. Just 36% say that currently,
down from 47% last year.
Changing Opinions about Global Warming
April Oct
Is there solid evidence
2008 2009 Change
the earth is warming?
%
%
Yes
71
57
-14
Because of human activity
47
36
-11
Because of natural patterns 18
16
-2
Don’t know (Vol.)
6
6
0
No
21
33
+12
10
+2
Mixed/Don’t know (Vol.)
8
100 100
How serious a problem?
Very serious
Somewhat serious
Not too serious
Not a problem
Don’t know (Vol.)
35
30
15
17
3
100
-9
+1
+2
+6
0
Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding.
The decline in the belief in solid evidence of
global warming has come across the political
spectrum, but has been particularly pronounced
among independents. Just 53% of independents now
see solid evidence of global warming, compared with
75% who did so in April 2008. Republicans, who
already were highly skeptical of the evidence of
global warming, have become even more so: just 35%
of Republicans now see solid evidence of rising
global temperatures, down from 49% in 2008 and
62% in 2007. Fewer Democrats also express this view
– 75% today compared with 83% last year.
1
44
29
13
11
3
100
Across Partisan Lines, Fewer See
Solid Evidence of Global Warming
91
79
59
86
78
83
75
75
Dem
62
Ind
49
53
Rep
35
2006
2007
2008
2009
Despite the growing public skepticism about global warming, the survey finds more
support than opposition for a policy to set limits on carbon emissions. Half of Americans favor
setting limits on carbon emissions and making
Cap and Trade:
companies pay for their emissions, even if this may
Little Awareness, Modest Support
lead to higher energy prices; 39% oppose imposing
Heard…
limits on carbon emissions under these
A
A
Nocircumstances.
Lot Little thing
Setting limits on
Total
This issue has not registered widely with
the public. Just 14% say they have heard a lot
about the so-called “cap and trade” policy that
would set carbon dioxide emissions limits; another
30% say they have heard a little about the policy,
while a majority (55%) has heard nothing at all.
carbon emissions
Favor
Oppose
Don’t know (Vol.)
% of public
%
50
39
11
100
%
32
64
3
100
%
58
32
10
100
%
50
36
13
100
14
30
55
Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding.
The small minority that has heard a lot about the issue opposes carbon emissions limits
by two-to-one (64% to 32%). More Republicans (20%) and independents (17%) than Democrats
(8%) have heard a lot about cap and trade. Among the much larger group that has heard little or
nothing about the issue, most support it (58% little, 50% nothing).
With less than two months before the United Nations Climate Change Conference in
Copenhagen, a majority (56%) of Americans think the United States should join other countries
in setting standards to address global climate change while 32% say that the United States should
set its own standards.
2
Shifts on Global Warming
Opinions about global warming
changed little between 2006 and 2008. In
August 2006 and January 2007, 77% said
there was solid evidence that the earth’s
temperatures were increasing; that figure
fell modestly to 71% in April of last year.
Opinions about Global Warming 2006-2009
Aug Jan April Oct
Is there solid evidence
2006 2007 2008 2009
the earth is warming?
%
%
%
%
Yes
77
77
71
57
Because of human activity
47
47
47
36
Because of natural patterns
20
20
18
16
Don’t know (Vol.)
10
10
6
6
No
17
16
21
33
7
8
10
Mixed/Don’t know (Vol.)
6
100 100 100 100
Among those who saw solid
evidence of global warming, most said it
Q41 & Q42. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding.
was largely caused by human activity, such
as burning fossil fuels; in all three of those surveys, 47% of the public expressed this view. Far
smaller percentages – including just 18% in 2008 – said it was mostly caused because of natural
environmental patterns.
Currently, 57% say there is solid evidence of rising global temperatures, while 33% say
there is no solid evidence. Fewer than four-in-ten (36%) now say global warming is mostly
caused by human activity such as
Most Republicans See No Solid Evidence
burning fossil fuels, while 16% say it is
of Global Warming
occurring mostly because of natural
Aug Jan April Oct
environmental patterns.
A
majority
(53%)
of
independents say there is solid evidence
of warming, including 33% who say it is
mostly caused by human activity. But
this is far lower than in April 2008 when
75% said global warming was happening
and 50% said it was due to human
activity.
The proportion of Republicans
saying there is solid evidence of global
warming declined from 62% in 2007 to
49% in 2008. The balance of opinion
among Republicans has shifted, with a
majority (57%) now saying there is no
hard evidence of global warming. The
drop among moderate and liberal
Republicans
Yes, solid evidence of warming
Because of human activity
Because of natural patterns
Don’t know (Vol.)
No solid evidence of warming
Mixed/Don’t know (Vol.)
Democrats
Yes, solid evidence of warming
Because of human activity
Because of natural patterns
Don’t know (Vol.)
No solid evidence of warming
Mixed/Don’t know (Vol.)
Independents
Yes, solid evidence of warming
Because of human activity
Because of natural patterns
Don’t know (Vol.)
No solid evidence of warming
Mixed/Don’t know (Vol.)
2006 2007 2008 2009
%
%
%
%
59
62
49
35
31
29
27
18
19
27
16
13
8
6
6
3
33
31
42
57
9
7
9
8
100 100 100 100
91
57
23
11
5
4
100
86
83
59
58
19
20
9
5
8
10
6
6
100 100
75
50
18
7
17
8
100
79
54
17
8
14
6
100
78
75
47
50
18
18
13
7
14
18
8
7
100 100
53
33
15
5
35
12
100
Q41 & Q42. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding.
3
Republicans has been particularly steep; 41% now say there is solid evidence of global warming,
compared with 69% last year. The decline among conservative Republicans has been more
modest (from 43% to 32%).
There has been less change in opinions
among Democrats. Three-quarters of Democrats
(75%) say there is solid evidence the earth is
warming, including 50% who say that it is
mostly because of human activity. In April
2008, 83% of Democrats said the earth is
warming and 58% attributed it to human
actions. More liberal Democrats than
conservative and moderate Democrats say the
earth is warming (83% vs. 72%), and far more
liberal Democrats say that global warming is
caused by human activity (69% vs. 43%).
Regional Differences
over Global Warming
% who say there is
solid evidence
earth is warming
Total
April Oct
2008 2009 Change
%
%
71
57
-14
Oct
N
1500
18-29
30-49
50-64
65+
74
74
70
64
64
55
59
50
-10
-19
-11
-14
197
406
485
369
College grad+
Some college
HS or less
70
71
72
58
57
56
-12
-14
-16
560
410
508
Conserv Rep
Mod/Lib Rep
Independent
Cons/Mod Dem
Liberal Dem
43
69
75
80
91
32
41
53
72
83
-11
-28
-22
-8
-8
252
107
543
297
160
There also are strong regional
Northeast
73
60
-13
287
differences in opinions about global warming; Midwest
64
48
-16
350
Great
Lakes
69
49
-20
225
fewer people living in the Mountain West
Plains
53
45
-8
125
(44%) and the Midwest (48%) say there is solid South
71
61
-10
555
Atlantic
74
66
-8
293
evidence of warming than in other regions.
Central
68
54
-14
262
77
58
-19
308
Similarly, there have been sharp declines since West
Mountain
75
44
-31
111
April 2008 in the proportion who say the earth
Pacific
78
65
-13
197
is warming in the Mountain West (75% to 44%) Q41.
and the Great Lakes region (69% to 49%). Both
regions have also seen large drops in the percentage who say that warming is caused by human
activity. (For a breakdown of states and regions, see About the Survey, pg. 10.)
4
Fewer See Warming as Very Serious Problem
A majority (65%) of the public continues to view global warming as a very (35%) or
somewhat (30%) serious problem. But in April 2008, 73% expressed this view, including 44%
who thought it was a very serious problem. About a
How Serious a Problem
third (32%) says global warming is not too serious
Is Global Warming?
(15%) or not a problem at all (17%). Last year, 24%
July Jan April Oct
said it was little or no problem. From 2006 to 2008,
2006 2007 2008 2009
%
%
%
%
these numbers had been quite stable.
Very serious
43
45
44
35
Somewhat serious 36
Not too serious
11
Not a problem
9
Don’t know (Vol.)
1
100
32
12
8
3
100
29
13
11
3
100
30
15
17
3
100
Partisan differences also are evident on
evaluations of the seriousness of global warming. About
half (49%) of Democrats say global warming is a very
Q43. Figures may not add to 100% because of
serious problem, down from 57% in April 2008. Far rounding.
fewer conservative and moderate Democrats say global
warming is a serious problem than did so last year, widening the gap between them and liberal
Democrats. Currently, 39% of conservative and moderate Democrats say it is a very serious
problem compared with 70% of liberal Democrats. A third of independents now say global
warming is a very serious problem, a decline of 13 points from last year.
Only 14% of Republicans say that global
warming is a very serious problem, down from
22% in April 2008. Just 20% of moderate and
liberal Republicans now say that global
warming is a very serious problem, down from
35% last year. Only 10% of conservative
Republicans now say global warming is a very
serious problem.
People living in the Midwest (30%) and
the Mountain West (26%) are the least likely to
view global warming as a very serious problem.
There have been modest declines across regions,
but they are particularly steep in the West (52%
April 2008 to 36% now).
Young people are now far more likely
than older Americans to view global warming
as a very serious problem. Across all age
groups, except those younger than 30, the
5
Democrats Divided Over Seriousness
of Global Warming
% who say global
warming is a
very serious problem
Total
April Oct
2008 2009 Change
%
%
44
35
-9
Oct
N
1500
18-29
30-49
50-64
65+
41
48
44
41
46
34
33
25
+5
-14
-11
-16
197
406
485
369
College grad+
Some college
HS or less
44
45
44
33
40
34
-11
-5
-10
560
410
508
Republican
Conserv Rep
Mod/Lib Rep
Democrat
Cons/Mod Dem
Liberal Dem
Independent
22
18
35
57
52
67
46
14
10
20
49
39
70
33
-8
-8
-15
-8
-13
+3
-13
365
252
107
473
297
160
543
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Mountain
Pacific
45
39
43
52
44
55
39
30
36
36
26
41
-6
-9
-7
-16
-18
-14
287
350
555
308
111
197
Q43.
percent who think warming is a very serious problem has declined since April 2008.
As expected, views about the seriousness of
global warming are also related to whether people
think there is solid evidence the earth is warming
and whether it is human caused. A third of those
who do not think there is solid evidence of global
warming say it is a very or somewhat serious
problem while 65% say it is not too serious or not a
problem at all.
A Third of Warming Skeptics Still
Say It Is a Serious Problem
Solid evidence of warming …
Yes,
Yes,
No
human natural
solid
activity patterns evidence
%
%
%
Very serious
67
27
10
Somewhat serious 30
38
23
Not too serious
2
23
24
Not a problem
1
8
41
5
2
Don’t know
*
100
100
100
By comparison 65% of those who say that N
519
233
529
the warming is mostly caused by natural patterns in
Q43. Figures may not add to 100% because of
the earth’s environment say global warming is at rounding.
least a somewhat serious problem. Nearly all (97%)
who think the earth is warming mostly because of human activity say it is a problem. These
numbers are largely unchanged from April 2008.
In January 2009, global warming ranked at the bottom of the public’s list of policy
priorities for the president and Congress this year. Only 30% of the public said it should be a top
priority, down from 35% a year ago. More than twice as many Democrats (45%) as Republicans
(16%) rank global warming as a top priority, along with 25% independents. Global warming is
the lowest-rated priority for both independents and Republicans and ranks sixteenth for
Democrats among 20 issues. (Economy, Jobs Trump All Other Policy Priorities in 2009 Jan. 22).
6
Cap and Trade Barely Registers
As the health care debate has dominated the public’s attention, awareness about cap and
trade legislation is quite low. A majority (55%) of the public has heard nothing at all about the
cap and trade policy being considered by the president and Congress that would set limits on
carbon dioxide emissions. Only 14% have heard a lot and 30% a little about this policy.
More Republicans (20%) and
independents (17%) than Democrats (8%)
have heard a lot about cap and trade
although more Democrats have heard a
little. Conservative Republicans are
hearing the most; more than a quarter have
heard a lot (28%) about the policy.
Most Have Heard Nothing about Cap and Trade
Total
Republican
Conserv Rep
Mod/Lib Rep
Democrat
Cons/Mod Dem
Liberal Dem
Independent
------- Heard ------A lot A little Nothing DK
%
%
%
%
14
30
55 1=100
20
28
4
8
7
11
17
28
29
25
36
38
34
28
52
41
70
56
55
54
54
1=100
1=100
1=100
1=100
*=100
1=100
1=100
More people who say there is no
solid evidence of global warming have Is there solid evidence
heard a lot about cap and trade than those of global warming?
Yes
10
33
57 1=100
who think temperatures are rising (24% vs.
Because of human activity 10
36
54 *=100
Because of natural patterns 10
26
63 1=100
10%). But more of those who say that No
24
27
49 1=100
warming is caused mostly by human
Q55. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding.
activity have heard a little about the
proposed policy than those who say there is no evidence of warming (36% vs. 27%).
The most recent survey of the public’s knowledge by the Pew Research Center, released
Oct. 14, found that just 23% of the public could correctly identify that the cap and trade
legislation being discussed in Congress deals with energy and the environment; 48% were unsure
and 29% said incorrectly that it deals with health care, banking reform or unemployment. More
Republicans (27%) and independents (29%) correctly identify cap and trade as dealing with
energy and the environment than Democrats (15%). (See Well Known: Public Option, Sonia
Sotomayor; Little Known: Cap and Trade, Max Baucus).
7
Carbon Emissions Limits Favored
Half of the public favors setting limits on carbon dioxide emissions and making
companies pay for their emissions, even if it may mean higher energy prices. About four-in-ten
(39%) oppose this and 11% are unsure or do not offer an opinion.
Conservative Republicans are the only
political group in which a majority (60%)
opposes setting limits on carbon dioxide
emissions. Most moderate and liberal
Republicans (51%) favor this policy, as do an
identical percentage of independents and a
majority of Democrats (58%).
Views of Carbon Emissions Limits
Total
There also are wide regional
differences in opinions about cap and trade.
More people living near the Pacific coast
(62%) and the Northeast (56%) favor limiting
carbon emissions, even if it may mean higher
energy prices than those living in the South
(46%), Midwest (44%) and Mountain West
(42%). More college graduates favor this
policy than those with a high school education
or less (59% vs. 43%), but there are very few
differences by age.
Favor Oppose DK
%
%
%
50
39
11=100
18-29
30-49
50-64
65+
49
51
51
44
42
39
39
37
9=100
9=100
10=100
18=100
Col grad+
Some college
HS or less
59
53
43
32
37
44
9=100
10=100
13=100
Republican
Conserv Rep
Mod/Lib Rep
Democrat
Cons/Mod Dem
Liberal Dem
Independent
36
29
51
58
53
70
51
50
60
32
31
36
22
40
13=100
11=100
17=100
11=100
11=100
9=100
9=100
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Mountain
Pacific
56
44
46
56
42
62
33
43
42
35
45
30
11=100
13=100
11=100
10=100
13=100
8=100
Is there solid evidence
of global warming?
Yes
Because of human activity
Because of natural patterns
No
62
74
41
31
28
18
48
60
10=100
8=100
11=100
9=100
Opinion about cap and trade is related
to views about global warming. About threefourths (74%) of those who think the earth is Q56. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding.
warming and it is mostly caused by human
activity favor cap and trade legislation. By comparison, 41% of those who say warming is due to
natural patterns in the earth’s environment favor limiting carbon emissions. But even 31% of
those who say there is no solid evidence of rising temperatures favor cap and trade.
8
Public Supports Global Initiatives
A majority (56%) of Americans thinks the United States should join other countries in
setting standards to address global climate change while 32% say the U.S. should set its own
standards; 5% say neither and 6% are unsure. These numbers are similar to those in 2001 and
1997 when the public was asked about setting standards to improve the global environment.
More Democrats (66%) than
Majority Supports Joining Other Countries
to Address Global Climate Change
independents (53%) or Republicans (47%)
say the U.S. should join other countries in
Join
Set
other
own
Neither/
setting standards to address global climate
DK
countries standards other
change. Three-quarters of those who say
%
%
%
%
Total
56
32
5
6=100
the earth is warming mostly because of
47
39
9
4=100
human activity think the U.S. should join Republican
Conserv Rep
41
45
11
2=100
Mod/Lib Rep
61
27
6
5=100
with other countries in setting standards to
Democrat
66
26
2
6=100
address global climate change. By
Cons/Mod Dem
62
29
2
6=100
Liberal Dem
77
21
0
2=100
comparison, 51% of those who say
Independent
53
34
6
7=100
warming is due to natural patterns in the
earth’s environment and 42% who say the Q44. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding.
earth is not warming think the U.S. should
join other countries in setting standards to address climate change.
9
DETAILED TABLES
Q.41 From what you've read and heard, is there solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades, or not?
(If yes) Q.42 Do you believe that the earth is getting warmer mostly because of human activity, such as burning fossil fuels, or mostly because of natural patterns in the earth's environment?
APRIL 2008
TOTAL
SEX
Men
Women
AGE
18-49
50+
DETAILED AGE
18-29
30-49
50-64
65+
SEX BY AGE
Men 18-49
Men 50+
Women 18-49
Women 50+
RACE
White NH
Total Non-White
Black NH
EDUCATION
College grad
Some college
HS or less
INCOME
$75,000+
$30,000-$74,999
<$30,000
DETAILED INCOME
$100,000+
$75,000-$99,999
$50,000-$74,999
$30,000-$49,999
<$30,000
Earth is
warming
%
71
Mostly because of …
Human
(VOL.)
Natural
activity
patterns
DK/Ref
OCTOBER 2009
Not
warming
%
21
(VOL.)
Mixed/
DK/Ref
%
8
Earth is
warming
%
57
%
%
%
47
18
6
68
74
45
17
6
48
19
6
25
17
7
9
74
68
51
41
18
19
4
8
20
23
74
74
70
64
54
17
3
50
44
19
20
5
6
37
16
11
69
66
79
69
48
17
4
42
54
17
19
7
5
41
20
8
68
79
77
44
53
17
21
6
5
43
30
5
70
71
72
51
14
5
49
43
17
22
5
7
70
70
73
51
14
5
47
44
19
22
4
7
68
73
66
74
73
52
50
11
19
4
5
45
48
18
20
3
5
44
22
7
Mostly because of …
Human
(VOL.)
Natural
activity
patterns
DK/Ref
Not
warming
%
33
(VOL.)
Mixed/
DK/Ref
%
10
(Oct N)
%
%
%
36
16
6
54
61
32
16
5
39
15
6
36
30
10
9
760
740
6
9
59
55
39
31
15
17
5
7
32
35
9
10
603
854
19
20
24
21
8
6
6
15
64
55
59
50
47
14
3
34
35
15
18
6
5
25
16
8
28
35
35
35
9
9
7
15
197
406
485
369
25
26
14
21
6
8
7
10
54
52
63
58
34
16
5
31
44
17
14
5
5
32
18
8
35
38
29
32
10
9
8
10
305
434
298
420
24
14
17
8
7
6
53
68
66
33
41
14
21
5
6
39
24
3
39
20
19
9
12
15
1127
337
149
23
23
20
7
7
9
58
57
56
40
12
7
38
31
15
19
3
6
35
34
32
7
9
11
560
410
508
25
22
19
5
8
8
56
51
66
38
13
5
33
37
13
22
6
6
38
39
23
6
10
12
445
477
375
26
24
27
18
19
6
3
7
9
8
54
59
50
52
66
38
37
11
15
5
6
30
35
11
14
8
3
37
22
6
40
35
41
37
23
6
7
9
11
12
275
170
221
256
375
10
1500
DETAILED TABLES
Q.41 From what you've read and heard, is there solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades, or not?
(If yes) Q.42 Do you believe that the earth is getting warmer mostly because of human activity, such as burning fossil fuels, or mostly because of natural patterns in the earth's environment?
APRIL 2008
Earth is
warming
%
71
Mostly because of …
Human
(VOL.)
Natural
activity
patterns
DK/Ref
%
%
%
46
19
6
49
83
75
27
16
6
58
50
20
18
5
7
43
69
80
91
22
15
6
42
50
19
24
8
6
75
13
2
Total White NH Prot.
White NH evang. Prot.
64
56
41
18
6
33
16
6
White NH mainline Prot.
Total Catholic
White NH Cath.
Unaffiliated
CHURCH ATTENDANCE
More than once a week
Once a week
Once or twice a month
A few times a year
Seldom/Never
REGION
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
DETAILED REGION
Northeast
Great Lakes
Plains
South Atlantic
South Central
Mountain
Pacific
74
74
70
75
49
19
6
51
44
17
20
5
6
58
11
6
63
66
72
76
75
32
46
26
16
5
5
47
57
21
17
5
3
48
17
10
73
64
71
77
51
17
5
44
43
15
21
5
7
53
19
6
73
69
53
74
68
75
78
51
48
17
15
5
6
36
15
3
44
42
23
19
7
6
41
57
24
16
9
5
REGISTERED VOTER
PARTY ID
Republican
Democrat
Independent
PARTY AND IDEOLOGY
Conservative Republican
Mod/Lib Republican
Mod/Cons Democrat
Liberal Democrat
RELIGIOUS PREFERENCE
OCTOBER 2009
Not
warming
%
22
(VOL.)
Mixed/
DK/Ref
%
7
Earth is
warming
%
55
42
10
18
9
6
7
48
22
11
8
Mostly because of …
Human
(VOL.)
Natural
activity
patterns
DK/Ref
%
%
%
35
15
6
35
75
53
18
13
3
50
33
18
15
7
5
9
10
8
1
32
41
72
83
16
13
3
23
43
14
23
4
6
69
10
4
26
33
9
11
48
44
27
16
4
23
17
3
19
20
22
18
7
6
8
8
53
55
53
63
32
15
6
34
32
14
13
7
8
45
12
6
25
26
20
17
17
11
8
8
6
7
50
53
59
58
63
31
30
12
18
7
5
37
38
19
13
3
7
40
17
5
19
25
22
18
8
11
7
5
60
48
61
58
39
13
9
28
37
13
20
7
4
39
14
5
19
22
32
22
22
21
17
8
9
15
5
10
5
5
60
49
45
66
54
44
65
39
30
13
13
9
6
25
12
8
42
30
20
21
4
3
25
46
14
14
5
5
11
Not
warming
%
35
(VOL.)
Mixed/
DK/Ref
%
10
(Oct N)
57
17
35
8
8
12
365
473
543
62
48
19
13
5
10
9
4
252
107
297
160
44
50
8
7
616
327
36
37
39
26
11
7
8
11
289
317
251
219
41
35
33
35
28
9
12
8
7
10
215
412
190
249
390
30
42
32
30
10
11
7
12
287
350
555
308
30
40
45
28
38
42
24
10
11
10
6
8
15
11
287
225
125
293
262
111
197
1250
DETAILED TABLES
Q.41 From what you've read and heard, is there solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades, or not?
(If yes) Q.42 Do you believe that the earth is getting warmer mostly because of human activity, such as burning fossil fuels, or mostly because of natural patterns in the earth's environment?
APRIL 2008
Earth is
warming
%
MARITAL STATUS
Married
Not married
MARITAL STATUS BY SEX
Married men
Married women
Unmarried men
Unmarried women
EMPLOYMENT
Employed
Not employed
AMONG REPUBLICANS
Men
Women
18-49
50+
College grad
Not college grad
AMONG DEMOCRATS
Men
Women
18-49
50+
College grad
Not college grad
AMONG INDEPENDENTS
Men
Women
18-49
50+
College grad
Not college grad
Mostly because of …
Human
(VOL.)
Natural
activity
patterns
DK/Ref
OCTOBER 2009
Not
warming
%
(VOL.)
Mixed/
DK/Ref
%
Earth is
warming
%
25
17
8
8
%
%
%
67
76
45
16
5
49
21
6
63
71
73
78
42
17
5
49
50
16
17
6
6
47
24
7
28
22
22
12
70
73
48
43
17
21
4
8
44
54
52
47
46
51
26
28
13
18
5
8
32
22
13
19
7
5
20
31
21
13
6
7
80
86
85
82
88
82
56
20
4
59
21
6
62
53
19
22
4
8
75
52
10
24
3
6
73
77
79
69
75
75
49
17
7
52
55
19
21
7
4
45
14
11
57
48
11
20
6
7
Mostly because of …
Human
(VOL.)
Natural
activity
patterns
DK/Ref
Not
warming
%
(VOL.)
Mixed/
DK/Ref
%
39
27
8
11
857
618
8
9
13
9
469
388
276
342
(Oct N)
%
%
%
53
62
32
14
7
40
18
4
8
8
5
10
49
57
59
64
31
14
5
34
35
15
20
8
5
44
16
4
43
34
27
27
23
18
7
9
55
60
34
38
16
16
6
6
37
28
8
12
859
634
49
35
39
45
43
41
8
11
9
9
11
8
33
37
38
32
31
36
14
23
15
12
4
3
21
14
13
13
3
4
16
18
11
14
4
3
61
53
55
59
63
56
6
10
7
9
6
8
189
176
143
214
141
223
13
8
12
8
9
11
6
6
3
9
3
7
72
78
73
77
81
73
45
20
7
54
17
6
53
47
16
20
4
10
63
45
12
21
6
7
19
15
20
14
14
18
9
8
7
9
5
10
206
267
192
274
180
292
21
15
16
21
18
19
6
8
5
9
8
6
51
56
56
50
56
52
34
15
3
32
36
16
14
8
5
28
16
6
36
32
11
17
9
4
35
34
31
39
36
34
14
10
13
11
8
14
298
245
226
312
202
340
12
DETAILED TABLES
Q.43 In your view, is global warming a very serious problem, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not a problem?
APRIL 2008
TOTAL
SEX
Men
Women
AGE
18-49
50+
DETAILED AGE
18-29
30-49
50-64
65+
SEX BY AGE
Men 18-49
Men 50+
Women 18-49
Women 50+
RACE
White NH
Total Non-White
Black NH
EDUCATION
College grad
Some college
HS or less
INCOME
$75,000+
$30,000-$74,999
<$30,000
DETAILED INCOME
$100,000+
$75,000-$99,999
$50,000-$74,999
$30,000-$49,999
<$30,000
OCTOBER 2009
Very
serious
%
44
Somewhat
serious
Not too
serious
Not a
problem
Very
serious
%
35
Somewhat
serious
%
30
Not too
serious
Not a
problem
(VOL.)
DK/Ref
%
%
%
11
(VOL.)
DK/Ref
%
3
%
%
%
29
13
15
17
3
1500
43
46
26
31
16
11
12
10
3
3
34
37
27
33
15
15
22
12
2
3
760
740
46
43
28
30
15
11
9
14
3
3
39
30
32
28
13
17
14
21
2
3
603
854
41
48
44
41
31
26
30
29
20
12
10
12
6
10
14
13
2
3
2
4
46
34
33
25
32
32
27
30
11
14
16
20
8
18
21
20
3
2
3
4
197
406
485
369
43
43
48
42
26
26
30
33
16
15
13
8
11
14
6
13
3
2
3
3
35
31
43
29
31
22
33
34
12
19
13
16
20
26
9
16
3
2
2
5
305
434
298
420
41
54
57
30
26
27
15
9
4
13
6
4
2
5
7
32
43
41
30
31
25
16
12
18
20
9
9
2
5
7
1127
337
149
44
45
44
31
30
27
13
13
13
11
10
12
1
2
4
33
40
34
32
25
32
15
14
15
18
17
17
1
4
3
560
410
508
40
44
49
31
30
25
16
15
9
12
10
11
1
1
5
27
34
44
36
31
29
17
15
13
18
19
11
3
2
3
445
477
375
43
35
37
49
49
28
34
34
27
25
14
20
15
14
9
13
11
12
8
11
1
0
2
1
5
25
29
31
36
44
35
36
33
29
29
20
13
13
16
13
18
18
20
18
11
2
4
4
0
3
275
170
221
256
375
13
(Oct N)
DETAILED TABLES
Q.43 In your view, is global warming a very serious problem, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not a problem?
APRIL 2008
REGISTERED VOTER
PARTY ID
Republican
Democrat
Independent
PARTY AND IDEOLOGY
Conservative Republican
Mod/Lib Republican
Mod/Cons Democrat
Liberal Democrat
RELIGIOUS PREFERENCE
Total White NH Prot.
White NH evang. Prot.
White NH mainline Prot.
Total Catholic
White NH Cath.
Unaffiliated
CHURCH ATTENDANCE
More than once a week
Once a week
Once or twice a month
A few times a year
Seldom/Never
REGION
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
DETAILED REGION
Northeast
Great Lakes
Plains
South Atlantic
South Central
Mountain
Pacific
OCTOBER 2009
Very
serious
%
43
Somewhat
serious
Not too
serious
Not a
problem
Very
serious
%
33
Somewhat
serious
%
31
Not too
serious
Not a
problem
(VOL.)
DK/Ref
%
%
%
12
(VOL.)
DK/Ref
%
3
%
%
%
29
14
15
19
3
1250
22
57
46
29
28
29
24
7
12
23
5
9
2
3
3
14
49
33
30
32
32
20
11
16
35
6
16
2
3
4
365
473
543
18
35
52
67
26
40
31
24
27
14
9
4
27
11
7
1
2
0
1
5
10
20
39
70
22
45
37
23
23
13
14
4
44
19
7
4
2
2
2
0
252
107
297
160
(Oct N)
39
28
15
15
3
25
30
17
25
2
616
33
45
25
33
19
9
19
11
3
2
22
30
28
34
20
14
29
20
2
3
327
289
43
40
49
32
33
31
15
16
9
8
9
10
2
2
0
32
33
46
31
29
33
17
18
8
18
19
12
3
2
1
317
251
219
35
41
44
50
48
28
30
28
27
30
18
14
11
15
9
14
12
11
6
11
5
2
5
2
2
33
28
34
34
44
21
32
36
34
28
18
16
14
19
10
25
19
16
11
16
2
4
1
3
3
215
412
190
249
390
45
39
43
52
33
30
29
23
11
15
13
13
10
13
11
9
2
3
3
3
39
30
36
36
38
27
29
31
9
18
15
15
12
21
18
15
2
4
2
3
287
350
555
308
45
43
29
48
38
44
55
33
29
31
27
31
22
24
11
14
19
12
14
21
10
10
11
18
10
13
12
8
2
3
3
3
4
1
3
39
28
33
37
34
26
41
38
28
23
28
29
28
32
9
20
15
13
18
19
13
12
18
29
18
18
27
9
2
6
0
4
1
0
5
287
225
125
293
262
111
197
14
DETAILED TABLES
Q.43 In your view, is global warming a very serious problem, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not a problem?
APRIL 2008
MARITAL STATUS
Married
Not married
MARITAL STATUS BY SEX
Married men
Married women
Unmarried men
Unmarried women
EMPLOYMENT
Employed
Not employed
AMONG REPUBLICANS
Men
Women
18-49
50+
College grad
Not college grad
AMONG DEMOCRATS
Men
Women
18-49
50+
College grad
Not college grad
AMONG INDEPENDENTS
Men
Women
18-49
50+
College grad
Not college grad
OCTOBER 2009
Very
serious
%
Somewhat
serious
Not too
serious
Not a
problem
Very
serious
%
Somewhat
serious
%
Not too
serious
Not a
problem
(VOL.)
DK/Ref
%
(VOL.)
DK/Ref
%
%
%
%
%
%
44
45
27
30
15
12
12
10
2
4
30
42
31
30
17
13
21
13
3
3
857
618
41
46
45
45
26
29
25
34
16
13
16
8
15
9
9
10
1
3
4
3
30
29
39
45
25
37
30
30
15
18
14
11
27
14
16
10
3
2
2
4
469
388
276
342
44
45
30
28
13
13
12
10
2
4
34
37
31
29
15
14
17
17
3
2
859
634
23
21
25
20
18
25
21
37
26
32
36
25
29
18
28
20
25
23
25
22
20
26
21
24
1
2
0
3
1
2
9
19
16
11
12
15
27
33
38
21
21
33
20
19
18
22
26
17
42
27
28
43
40
33
1
2
1
3
0
2
189
176
143
214
141
223
59
55
56
59
68
53
27
29
30
27
25
30
5
8
7
6
6
7
6
4
4
6
1
6
3
3
4
2
0
4
49
49
54
44
52
47
28
35
32
32
33
32
13
9
7
14
10
11
8
5
6
6
4
7
2
3
1
4
1
3
206
267
192
274
180
292
44
50
47
45
44
47
26
31
29
29
32
27
16
8
13
12
11
13
10
8
7
11
10
9
4
3
4
3
3
4
34
31
35
29
30
34
28
37
33
31
38
30
13
20
14
18
13
17
22
9
13
19
18
15
3
4
5
3
1
5
298
245
226
312
202
340
15
(Oct N)
DETAILED TABLES
Q.55 How much, if anything, have you heard about a policy being considered by the president and Congress called "cap and trade" that
would set limits on carbon dioxide emissions? Have you heard a lot, a little, or nothing at all? / Q.56 Do you favor or oppose setting limits
on carbon dioxide emissions and making companies pay for their emissions, even if it may mean higher energy prices?
HEARD ABOUT
TOTAL
SEX
Men
Women
AGE
18-49
50+
DETAILED AGE
18-29
30-49
50-64
65+
SEX BY AGE
Men 18-49
Men 50+
Women 18-49
Women 50+
RACE
White NH
Total Non-White
Black NH
EDUCATION
College grad
Some college
HS or less
INCOME
$75,000+
$30,000-$74,999
<$30,000
DETAILED INCOME
$100,000+
$75,000-$99,999
$50,000-$74,999
$30,000-$49,999
<$30,000
POLICY VIEW
A lot
%
14
A little
Nothing
(VOL.)
DK/Ref
%
%
%
30
55
20
9
32
27
10
20
1
Favor
%
50
Oppose
%
39
47
63
1
1
47
52
26
35
64
44
0
2
7
12
21
18
23
28
36
33
70
60
43
45
15
27
5
13
29
37
23
32
17
7
5
(VOL.)
DK/Ref
(Oct N)
%
11
1500
44
35
9
13
760
740
51
49
40
38
9
13
603
854
0
0
0
4
49
51
51
44
42
39
39
37
9
9
10
18
197
406
485
369
56
34
72
53
0
1
0
2
47
48
54
49
44
44
36
33
9
8
9
17
305
434
298
420
31
28
21
52
64
71
1
1
3
50
50
38
39
40
52
11
10
10
1127
337
149
21
15
11
39
27
26
40
58
62
0
0
1
59
53
43
32
37
44
9
10
13
560
410
508
23
15
5
31
32
26
45
53
67
1
0
1
55
50
48
35
41
39
10
9
13
445
477
375
26
19
15
16
5
38
23
34
29
26
36
57
50
55
67
0
1
0
0
1
59
49
50
51
48
34
37
40
42
39
7
14
11
8
13
275
170
221
256
375
16
DETAILED TABLES
Q.55 How much, if anything, have you heard about a policy being considered by the president and Congress called "cap and trade" that
would set limits on carbon dioxide emissions? Have you heard a lot, a little, or nothing at all? / Q.56 Do you favor or oppose setting limits
on carbon dioxide emissions and making companies pay for their emissions, even if it may mean higher energy prices?
HEARD ABOUT
REGISTERED VOTER
PARTY ID
Republican
Democrat
Independent
PARTY AND IDEOLOGY
Conservative Republican
Mod/Lib Republican
Mod/Cons Democrat
Liberal Democrat
RELIGIOUS PREFERENCE
Total White NH Prot.
White NH evang. Prot.
White NH mainline Prot.
Total Catholic
White NH Cath.
Unaffiliated
CHURCH ATTENDANCE
More than once a week
Once a week
Once or twice a month
A few times a year
Seldom/Never
REGION
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
DETAILED REGION
Northeast
Great Lakes
Plains
South Atlantic
South Central
Mountain
Pacific
POLICY VIEW
A lot
%
17
A little
Nothing
(VOL.)
DK/Ref
%
%
%
31
51
20
8
17
28
36
28
28
4
7
11
1
Favor
%
50
Oppose
%
38
52
56
54
1
1
1
36
58
51
29
25
38
34
41
70
55
54
1
1
0
1
16
16
17
31
29
32
53
54
50
19
22
12
31
27
32
15
15
14
14
14
(VOL.)
DK/Ref
(Oct N)
%
12
1250
50
31
40
13
11
9
365
473
543
29
51
53
70
60
32
36
22
11
17
11
9
252
107
297
160
1
1
1
43
37
51
45
50
38
12
13
12
616
327
289
49
50
55
1
1
1
54
52
62
36
37
33
10
11
5
317
251
219
30
29
31
33
27
53
56
55
51
59
2
0
1
1
0
37
51
45
52
56
48
37
42
37
37
16
11
13
11
7
215
412
190
249
390
13
16
16
12
27
29
30
33
58
54
54
54
2
1
1
1
56
44
46
56
33
43
42
35
11
13
11
10
287
350
555
308
13
16
15
15
17
17
10
27
27
34
30
29
26
36
58
56
51
54
53
57
53
2
1
1
2
0
0
1
56
41
48
50
42
42
62
33
44
42
39
46
45
30
11
15
10
11
11
13
8
287
225
125
293
262
111
197
17
DETAILED TABLES
Q.55 How much, if anything, have you heard about a policy being considered by the president and Congress called "cap and trade" that
would set limits on carbon dioxide emissions? Have you heard a lot, a little, or nothing at all? / Q.56 Do you favor or oppose setting limits
on carbon dioxide emissions and making companies pay for their emissions, even if it may mean higher energy prices?
HEARD ABOUT
MARITAL STATUS
Married
Not married
MARITAL STATUS BY SEX
Married men
Married women
Unmarried men
Unmarried women
EMPLOYMENT
Employed
Not employed
AMONG REPUBLICANS
Men
Women
18-49
50+
College grad
Not college grad
AMONG DEMOCRATS
Men
Women
18-49
50+
College grad
Not college grad
AMONG INDEPENDENTS
Men
Women
18-49
50+
College grad
Not college grad
POLICY VIEW
A lot
%
A little
Nothing
(VOL.)
DK/Ref
%
%
19
9
32
27
25
12
14
5
(VOL.)
DK/Ref
%
Favor
%
Oppose
%
49
63
1
1
47
53
42
36
11
11
857
618
35
30
29
24
40
58
57
69
1
0
1
2
43
52
53
52
47
36
40
34
10
12
7
14
469
388
276
342
14
14
31
28
54
56
1
2
51
47
39
39
10
14
859
634
25
14
16
24
25
18
28
27
22
34
34
25
46
58
62
40
41
56
0
2
0
2
0
1
31
41
38
35
33
37
60
41
48
54
56
49
9
17
14
12
11
14
189
176
143
214
141
223
12
5
7
9
13
6
39
33
34
38
44
33
49
61
59
52
42
60
0
1
0
1
0
1
56
60
60
56
74
53
35
28
33
28
17
36
9
12
6
15
9
11
206
267
192
274
180
292
23
10
10
28
25
14
32
24
25
32
39
24
44
65
65
38
36
61
1
1
0
2
0
1
50
51
49
52
60
47
42
38
42
37
32
43
8
11
8
11
8
10
298
245
226
312
202
340
18
(Oct N)
%
ABOUT THE SURVEY
Results for this survey are based on telephone interviews conducted under the direction of Abt/SRBI Inc.
among a nationwide sample of 1,500 adults, 18 years of age or older, from September 30-October 4, 2009 (1125
respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 375 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 141 who
had no landline telephone). Both the landline and cell phone samples were provided by Survey Sampling
International. Interviews were conducted in English. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see
http://people-press.org/methodology/.
The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches
gender, age, education, race/ethnicity, region, and population density to parameters from the March 2008 Census
Bureau's Current Population Survey. The sample is also weighted to match current patterns of telephone status and
relative usage of landline and cell phones (for those with both), based on extrapolations from the 2008 National
Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and
cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size
within the landline sample.
The following table shows the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of
confidence for different groups in the survey:
Group
Total sample
Republicans
Democrats
Independents
Sample Size
1500
365
473
543
Plus or minus…
3 percentage points
6 percentage points
5 percentage points
5 percentage points
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in
conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
For the regional analysis used in this report, states were grouped into smaller subregions or divisions as
follows:
States in Each Region
Northeast
CT MA ME NH NJ NY PA RI VT
Midwest
Great Lakes IL IN MI OH WI
Plains
IA KS MN MO ND NE SD
South
Atlantic
Central
DC DE FL GA MD NC SC VA WV
AL AR KY LA MS OK TN TX
West
Mountain West AZ CO ID NM MT UT NV WY
Pacific West CA OR WA
See http://www.census.gov/geo/www/us_regdiv.pdf for more
information.
19
ABOUT THE CENTER
The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press is an independent opinion research group that studies
attitudes toward the press, politics and public policy issues. We are sponsored by The Pew Charitable Trusts and are
one of seven projects that make up the Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan "fact tank" that provides information on
the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world.
The Center's purpose is to serve as a forum for ideas on the media and public policy through public opinion
research. In this role it serves as an important information resource for political leaders, journalists, scholars, and
public interest organizations. All of our current survey results are made available free of charge.
All of the Center’s research and reports are collaborative products based on the input and analysis of the
entire Center staff consisting of:
Andrew Kohut, Director
Scott Keeter, Director of Survey Research
Carroll Doherty and Michael Dimock, Associate Directors
Michael Remez, Senior Writer
Robert Suls, Shawn Neidorf, Leah Christian and Jocelyn Kiley, Research Associates
Alec Tyson, Research Analyst
© Pew Research Center, 2009
20
PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS
OCTOBER 2009 POLITICAL SURVEY
FINAL TOPLINE
September 30-October 4, 2009
N=1500
QUESTIONS 1 THROUGH 38 PREVIOUSLY RELEASED
NO QUESTIONS 39 AND 40
ASK ALL:
On a different subject…
Q.41
From what you’ve read and heard, is there solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been
getting warmer over the past few decades, or not?
IF “YES” (1 IN Q.41) ASK [N=834]:
Q.42
Do you believe that the earth is getting warmer [READ AND RANDOMIZE]?
BASED ON TOTAL:
Sep 30-Oct 4
2009
57
Yes
Mostly because of human activity
36
such as burning fossil fuels, OR
Mostly because of natural patterns in the
16
earth’s environment
6
Don’t know/Refused (VOL.)
33
No
2
Mixed/some evidence (VOL.)
8
Don’t know/Refused (VOL.)
April
2008
71
Jan
2007
77
Aug
2006
77
July
2006
79
June
2006
70
47
47
47
50
41
18
6
21
3
5
20
10
16
1
6
20
10
17
1
5
23
6
17
1
3
21
8
20
1
9
ASK ALL:
Q.43
In your view, is global warming a very serious problem, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not a
problem?
Sep 30-Oct 4
2009
35
30
15
17
3
Very serious
Somewhat serious
Not too serious
Not a problem
Don’t know/Refused (VOL.)
Apr 28-May 12
2009
47
26
11
13
2
21
April
2008
44
29
13
11
3
Jan
2007
45
32
12
8
3
July
2006
43
36
11
9
1
June
2006
41
33
13
11
2
ASK ALL:
Q.44
Do you think [READ AND RANDOMIZE]
Trend for comparison
April1
Nov
2001
1997
Sep 30-Oct 4
2009
56
32
3
2
6
The United States should join other countries in
setting standards to address global climate change [OR]
The United States should set its own standards
to address global climate change
Neither (VOL.)
No need to address/No climate change (VOL.)
Don’t know/Refused (VOL.)
58
55
38
--4
41
--4
QUESTIONS 45 THROUGH 52 PREVIOUSLY RELEASED
NO QUESTIONS 53 AND 54
On another topic…
ASK ALL:
Q.55
How much, if anything, have you heard about a policy being considered by the president and Congress
called “cap and trade” that would set limits on carbon dioxide emissions? Have you heard…[READ]
14
30
55
1
A lot
A little [OR]
Nothing at all
Don’t know/Refused (VOL.)
IF HEARD A LOT OR A LITTLE (1,2 IN Q.55) [N=777]: From what you’ve read and heard
IF HEARD NOTHING/DK (3,9 IN Q.55) [N=723]: Just in general,
ASK ALL:
Q.56
Do you favor or oppose setting limits on carbon dioxide emissions and making companies pay for their
emissions, even if it may mean higher energy prices?
50
39
11
Favor
Oppose
Don't know/Refused (VOL.)
NO QUESTIONS 57 AND 58
QUESTIONS 59 THROUGH 64 PREVIOUSLY RELEASED
1
In April 2006 and November 1997, question was worded “Do you think the United States should join other countries in setting
standards to improve the global environment, or should the United States set its own environmental standards independently?”
22