Current Status and Issues Facing Japanese Industries February, 2010 Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry The Industrial Structure Vision (provisional name) 1. Establishment of the Industrial Competitiveness Committee A new organization called the Industrial Competitiveness Committee will be established under the Industrial Structure Council, to formulate a new, joint public-private strategy known as the “Industrial Structure Vision” (provisional name). The Committee will discuss what will drive Japan’s revenues and employment in the future, taking into account the current deadlock situation and serious business climate for Japanese industries. 2. Major subjects on the agenda (draft) - Why can Japanese companies win through technology but cannot profit operationally? - Can design, development and production be retained within the country? - Can Japanese companies meet infrastructure demand and the so-called volume zone in growing and emerging markets? - How can businesses capitalize on environmental needs? - How can businesses capitalize on the needs in the medical care, nursing care, healthcare and childcare sectors? - Are there industrial development models suited for regions? - Proposals for new growth industries (strategic sectors) - Future vision for major industries - Directions of future industrial policies etc. 3. Schedule The first meeting will be held in February, and in June, an interim report summarizing the results will be compiled. The committee is to meet about 7 times during this period. 2 Issues Considered by the Industrial Competitiveness Committee • The Japanese economy is in a serious deadlock. – Japan’s economic rank in the world as a whole is declining. Per capita wealth is stagnant as well. • This deadlock is not a transient one, but involves structural problems in three major areas. 1. Problems with the overall industrial structure 2. Problems with corporate business models 3. Problems with the business infrastructure surrounding corporations • Overcoming these structural problems will require not mere stopgap measures, but a comprehensive strategy pooling the collective wisdom of government and industry. • With these issues in mind, this Committee is to discuss and consider “what will drive Japan’s revenues and employment in the future.” 3 1. THE DEADLOCKED JAPANESE ECONOMY Japan’s economic rank in the world as a whole is declining. Change in global ranking for per capita GDP Change in share of global GDP 2000 2008 1990 2008 3rd 23rd 14.3% 8.9% Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database Change in IMD World Competitive Power Ranking 1990 2008 1st 22nd Source: World Competitiveness Yearbook 5 Global market focus is shifting to emerging countries • From now on, markets will increasingly shift from Japanese domestic, European and North American demand, to developing and emerging countries. (billion dollars) Scale of market expansion in various areas of the world 20,000 ■2002-2008 market expansion ■2009-2014 market expansion 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Developing and emerging countries Developed countries Japan Source: World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010 6 Limitations of expansion of domestic demand through income distribution • Japan already has one of the lowest savings rates among developed countries. Boosting consumption over the mid- to long-term is unviable. • Labor’s share is higher in Japan than in other countries International comparison of labor’s share Change in household savings rate in major nations 25.0 UK Japan 20.0 France Germany 15.0 France フランス Italy イタリア Germany ドイツ 10.0 Japan 日本 USA アメリカ Italy 5.0 France USA Germany USA Source: OECD Economic Outlook No86 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 0.0 (Year) Japan Source: Prepared on the basis of Cabinet Office white paper on the economy and public finance (2008), OECD “National Accounts” Note: Labor’s share = Employee compensation/per capita income = (per capita employee compensation × number of workers) / (Cost of living × real GDP) = real wages/labor productivity If Japan’s overall “pie” is not enlarged, domestic demand will not expand 7 Stagnant and declining wages • Over the 2002 to 2007 period, wages were stagnant or declining despite economic growth (Year 2005 = 100) Change in per capita wages 110.0 107.0 104.0 101.0 98.0 95.0 Sluggish economy Strong economy Sluggish economy Strong economy Sluggish economy 92.0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 Sluggish economy Strong economy 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Source: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (MHLW) “Monthly Labor Survey” 8 Overseas operations expand while domestic business activities stagnate • Japanese corporations have been boosting overseas investment. Meanwhile, domestic investment is at a standstill. (million yen) Change in overseas direct investment (net) Change in domestic capital expenditures (year on year) All sizes / All industries down 37% Source: Ministry of Finance (MOF) “Balance of Payments” Source: MOF “Corporate Enterprise Quarterly Statistics” 9 Shift of focus to overseas will continue in the future (1) Q. Will production , development, research and head office functions currently housed in Japan shift overseas in the future? (Unit: companies) 90 Production operations companies Development operations Research operations Head office operations 30 companies 8 companies The number of corporations considering shifting overseas, and those not considering it, is almost equal. 4 companies No shift of the above functions 84 companies No response 113companies Shift some or all operations Shifting of some or all operations currently under consideration Source: METI “Survey of Japanese Industrial Competitive Power” (n = 283 companies) Note: There is some doubling up of responses from corporations regarding production functions 10 The rural economy continues to decline • The economic disparity between the Tokyo and Nagoya regions, and other regions of Japan, continues to widen. • In particular, rural areas will see a steep decline in population from now on. Revival of the economy in rural areas is a serious concern. Change in GDP by region (Growth rate from 1996 → 2006) Change in population and population growth rates by region Population increase/decrease 増減数(千人) (1,000 people) 8.00% Population Population increase/decrease increase/decrease 増減数 増減数 (2005 – 2020) (2005~2035) (2005 – 2035) (2005~2020) Percentage of 増減率(%) increase/decrease(%) 2,000 5.0 6.00% 0 Tokyo東京圏 region 4.00% ▲ 2,000 Kansai region Kansai大阪圏 region Other regions 地方圏 1.6 0.0 ▲ 1.0 2.00% ▲ 4,000 0.00% Tokyo region 東京圏 -2.00% Nagoya region 名古屋圏 Nagoya region 名古屋圏 Kansai 関西圏 region Other 地方圏 regions ▲ 6,000 ▲ 8,000 ▲ 10,000 -4.00% ▲ 5.0 ▲ 4.4 ▲ 7.8 Percentage of increase/decrease 増減率 ▲ 5.0 ▲ 7.1 (2005~2020) ▲ 10.0 Percentage of increase/decrease 増減率 (2005~2035) ▲ 15.0 -6.00% ▲ 12,000 -8.00% ▲ 14,000 Source: Cabinet Office “Annual Report on Prefectural Accounts” Tokyo region: Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kanagawa, Nagoya region: Gifu, Aichi, Mie, Kansai region: Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo, Nara Rural regions: All prefectures outside the three major urban areas ▲ 15.8 ▲ 18.5 ▲ 20.0 Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) “Census“, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research Prepared by METI based on “Population Projections by Prefecture (May 2007 estimation) Tokyo region: Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kanagawa, Nagoya region: Gifu, Aichi, Mie, Kansai region: Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo, Nara Rural regions: All prefectures outside the three major urban areas 11 In the short term, employment problems revolve around “quantity,” while in the mid- to long-term they revolve around “quality.” • Japan is facing a potentially severe unemployment problem In the short term, the issue is “quantity” of jobs Change in the unemployment rate 10,000 people Potential number of unemployed: 9.05 million people (Potential unemployment rate: 13. 7%) • The working-age population will drop sharply toward 2020 (8.01 million lower than 2009) In the mid to long term, the problem is not so much “quantity” as “quality” of jobs Projected working-age population of Japan 10,000 people 2009 81.64 million people 2020 73.63 million people Labor hoarding population Totally unemployed population Unemployment rate: right axis Potential unemployment rate: right axis Source: Prepared on the basis of MIC “Labor Force Survey (Seasonally adjusted tabulation)" , Cabinet Office “White paper on the economy and public finance" Note 1: “The labor hoarding population” is calculated using the difference between the “actual employed population” and the “optimum number of employees needed for production.” The “optimum number of employees” is the number of employees needed to achieve appropriate labor productivity with a normal number of working hours) Note 2: For the “potential number of unemployed,” the sum of the number of totally unemployed people and the “labor hoarding population” is used as a matter of convenience. The “potential unemployment rate” is the “potential number of unemployed” divided by the working age population. Working age population (age 15-64) Working age population ratio (right axis) Source: Prepared on the basis of the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research “Population Projections for Japan" Note: Graph employs moderate predictions for the birth rate and death rate 12 2. OVERALL INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE ISSUES 13 Expansion of the “pie” (income) is dependent on global manufacturing, and particularly on the automotive industry • Of the nominal GDP growth rate (2000 → 2007) of 2. 5%, the automotive industry accounts for nearly half (1.1%). Growth in profits over the FY 2001 → FY 2007 period All industries Contribution of auto industry to GDP growth rate (2000 – 2007) Automotive contribution is about 50% ¥25.2 trillion Of this amount, the four major global manufacturing industries account for 36% (¥9.1 trillion) (Transport machinery: ¥2.1 trillion, electronics: ¥3.2 trillion, steel: ¥1.8 trillion, general machinery: ¥1.9 trillion) Source: Corporate Enterprise Statistics (annual survey) Overall (GDP growth rate) Auto industry share Source: The GDP growth rate is based on the Cabinet Office “National Income Accounts.” Degree of automotive industry contribution is prepared on the basis of METI “Extended Input / Output Table”, MIC “Linked Input / Output Table” Note: Figures for the automotive industry are calculated as induced values including added value from spillover to other industries. 14 Labor productivity is increasing, but employee incomes remain flat • Japan and Germany, with export-based manufacturing-oriented growth patterns, have achieved increases in labor productivity (approx. 25%). However, since 1990, worker incomes in real terms have remained more or less flat. G5 per capita employee compensation Change in G5 labor productivity 各国における労働生産性の推移 (1990年=100) (1990 level = 100) UK 220 France UK Germany 200 Japan USA UK USA USA 180 France 160 France フランス Japan ドイツ 140 日本 Germany Germany 英国 米国 120 Japan 100 80 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: International Labor Productivity Comparison (Japan Productivity Center) 【出所】労働生産性の国際比較(財団法人社会経済生産性本部) Note 1: Labor productivity = Real GDP (at constant prices adjusted for dollar inflation / deflation) / workforce population (注)1.労働生産性=実質GDP(購買力平価換算ドル)/就業者数 Note2.グラフデータは、1990年平均=100として指数化 2: Data on the graph is indexed with 1990 level equaling 100. Export-based manufacturing economies are facing cost competition from emerging countries 15 The number of people employed is relatively low in global manufacturing. The number is declining in all developed countries. (%) 製造業のシェア(就業者) Manufacturing industry share (number of workers) 35 Japan approx. 17% 30 (four major global manufacturing industries account for approx. 7%) Germany 25 Italy 20 * The four major global manufacturing industries are “primary metals,” “general machinery,” “electronics,” and “transport machinery.” France 15 10 Canada UK USA 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 5 Source: OECD High expectations cannot be placed on global manufacturing industries in terms of quantity of employment. 16 Per capita value added for global corporations and for other industries are divergent (百万円)Per capita value added for global corporations and domestic corporations グローバル企業とドメスティック企業の一人当り実質GDP(付加価値) (million yen) 21.0 21. 0 Global (major) グローバル企業 corporations (大企業) 18.0 15.0 Peak ピーク (90/3Q) (90/3Q) 12.0 9.0 6.0 Domestic (small and ドメスティック企業 medium) corporations -29.2% (中小企業) 3.0 0.0 55 59 63 67 71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99 03 07 (注)1.実質GDP=名目付加価値(人件費+営業利益)/産業別デフレータ Source: Prepared by UFJ Securities from the Ministry of Finance “Corporate Enterprise Statistics (annual survey)” 2.グローバル化経済圏企業=IT産業、鉄鋼、輸送用機械の大企業 3.IT産業=非鉄、電気機械、精密機械、一般機械、情報通信 4.ドメスティック経済圏企業=中小企業・非製造業(ただし、電力と情報通信を除く) Boosting the value added for domestic corporations is key. 17 Japan has a low level of dependence on exports 250.0% 231.2% <各国輸出依存度の比較> Comparison of export dependency in various countries 212.5% 200.0% 150.0% 109.6% 100.0% 77.7% 12.6% USA 17. 4% 14.5% Brazil 24.1% Japan 26.6% India 28.1% France 36.6% UK 40.2% China 47.5% EU27 South Korea Vietnam Malaysia Hong Kong 0.0% Singapore 50.0% Germany 54.8% Source: IMF, Cabinet Office “National Accounts” It is important to connect industries other than specific global manufacturing industries with overseas growth markets to boost value added. 18 Japanese corporations have slim profit margins Profit margin comparison (5 industry categories) Profit margin Foreign corporations (6 companies) Japanese corporations (3 corporations) Foreign corporations (5 companies) Japanese corporations (5 corporations) Information and Heavy electrical machinery communications equipment (FY 2007) (FY 2007) Foreign Foreign Japanese Japanese corporations corporations corporations corporations (4 companies) (2 corporations) (17 companies) (3 corporations) Semiconductors (FY 2007) Chemicals (FY 2006) Foreign corporations (5 companies) Japanese corporations (1 corporations) Cement (FY 2007) Source: METI “2009 White Paper on Japanese Manufacturing Industry” Note 1: Data for the information and communications equipment industry, heavy electrical equipment industry and semiconductor industry represents the global top 10 companies, data for the chemical industry represents the top 20 companies, and data for the cement industry represents the global top 6 companies Note 2: Profit margin consists of the net average operating margin for each company (however, current profit margin is used for the information and communications equipment industry only. Industries incurring losses are excluded from calculations) 19 Japanese industries are characterized by a large number of competing players Overview of major players in each industry Japan North America Europe Asia, etc. LCD TV Sony, Sharp, Toshiba, Panasonic, Funai Vizio (USA) Philips (Netherlands) Samsung (South Korea), LGE (South Korea), TCL China) Railways Nippon Sharyo, Hitachi, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, , Tokyu Car, Kinki Sharyo Bombardier (Canada) ALSTOM (France) Siemens (Germany) Hyundai Rotem (South Korea) Nuclear power Toshiba (WH), Hitachi, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries GE(USA), 〔WH〕 AREVA (France) Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction (South Korea) GE (USA), Nalco (USA) Veolia (France) Siemens (Germany) Suez (France) Thames Water (Australia) GE (USA) Philips (France) Water business (Drinking water / sewers) Diagnostic imaging equipment Toray, Metawater, Ebara, Kubota, etc. *Major corporations include of 16 companies for equipment, nine for plant construction, and three for operations and maintenance Toshiba Medical, Hitachi Medico, Shimadzu, Aloka Source: prepared by METI on the basis of assorted materials ― Comparison of Japan and South Korea • • In comparison with South Korea, Japanese industry is characterized by a large number of companies fighting for a share of the domestic market, and by domestic attrition. South Korean corporations use the domestic market as a “home base” for bold and rapid strategic investment in global markets. Japan/South Korea size of market comparison Even with a smaller overall domestic market than Japan, there are larger domestic markets available for each individual South Korean company. Japan Note: as of 2008 Automobiles Mobile phones Electric power Oil (primary distribution) Size of domestic market Size of market/per company Size of market/per company 1 company 1.02 million vehicles 1.02 million vehicles 1. 5: 1 58 million tons 29 million tons 1. 5: 1 22.5 million handsets 11.25 million handsets 2. 2: 1 350 billion kwh 350 billion kwh 3. 9: 1 2,291,000 b/d 573,000 b/d 1. 1: 1 Size of domestic market Size of market/per company 6 companies 4.23 million vehicles 700,000 vehicles (Nippon Steel, etc.) 76 million tons 19 million tons 6 companies 31 million handsets 5.16 million handsets (Samsung, etc.) 890 billion kwh 89 billion kwh (Korea Electric Power) 4,845,000 b/d 538,000 b/d 4 companies Steel No. of major corporations No. of major corporations (Toyota, etc.) (Sharp, etc.) 10 companies (TEPCO, etc.) 9 companies (Nippon Oil Corp., etc.) Japan/S.K. comparison South Korea Note: Figures for mobile phones are projections for 2009, others are actual figures for 2008. Major steel corporations = number of corporations in the global top 40 crude steel producers Major auto corporations = number of corporation s with domestic sales of 200,000 or more vehicles (Hyundai-Kia) 2 companies (Posco, etc.) 2 companies 1 company 4 companies (SK, etc.) S.K.: Japan Source: Prepared by Mizuho Corporate Bank Industry Research Division based on assorted documentation 21 Big deals in South Korea • In South Korea, since the 1997 currency crisis, the government has acted strongly to centralize industry to prevent excessive diversification of conglomerates. (Supply-side measures) • In Japan, since the strong yen crisis of 1985, the government has pushed for expansion of domestic demand primarily through investment in the public sector (demand-side measures). This has bred a structure of excessive supply. Semiconductors Automobiles Progression Framework 2-company system: Samsung Electronics + company formed from merger of Hyundai Electronics and LG Semiconductors Even after absorbing LG Semiconductors, Hyundai Electronics (Hynix) faced a crisis Samsung Electronics Samsung Electronics Hyundai Electronics Hynix Semiconductors LG Semiconductors 1999 Absorption / merger 2001 Company name changed *The TFT and LCD segments of LG Electronics, which remained part of LG, were taken over by merged entity LG Phillips TFT / LCD Progression Petrochemicals Merger broke down after failure to attract foreign investment, French company Total invested in Framework 4-group system: Samsung General Chemicals and Samsung, Hyundai Petrochemical acquired LG Chemical / Hyundai Petrochemical attempted integration Honam Petrochemical with foreign investment Samsung General Chemicals Hyundai Petrochemical Total made capital investment Samsung Total Merger failed LG Daesan Petrochemical division absorbed LG Chemical Honam Petrochemical Source: Prepared by METI based on Lotte Daesan Petrochemical division acquired in merger Framework Hyundai Motors acquired Kia Motors Daewoo Motors and Samsung Motors were integrated into foreign corporations Progression Hyundai-Kia formed, Samsung Motors filed for bankruptcy, causing a business exchange failure, Daewoo Motors was purchased by GM, Samsung Motors purchased by Renault Hyundai Motors Kia Motors Hyundai Motors Went bankrupt in1998, became a subsidiary of Hyundai Went bankrupt in 2000, became a subsidiary of GM in 2002 Daewoo Motor Samsung Motors Railroad cars Framework Merger of Hyundai Precision, Daewoo Heavy Industries and Hanjin Heavy Industries Hyundai Precision LG Chemical Daewoo Heavy Industries Honam Petrochemical Hanjin Heavy Industries Business exchange failure Went bankrupt in 2000, became a subsidiary of Renault Progression 1999 merger, became a group company of Hyundai Group in 2001 Hyundai Rotem 1999 merger Name changed in 2007 22 Corporate “aging society and low birthrate” (Stagnation in number of companies established, growing number of companies going out of business) ○The rate of companies going out of business continues to exceed the rate of those going into business, leading to an ongoing decline in the number of companies Changes in rate of companies going into/out of business (non-primary industry) (%) 7.0 5.9 5.9 Going out of 開業率 business rate廃業率 6.0 (万社) 560 6.8 6.1 6.2 5.6 540 528 526 5.0 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.8 5.8 5.1 4.0 3.2 4.0 2.7 2.0 1.0 4.21 million companies 523 520 510 507 500 485 484 470 469 480 3.6 3.5 535 533 Small and medium enterprises 520 3.0 5.28 million companies (10000 companies) 8.0 Change in number of companies 3.5 460 Total no. of companies 434 433 440 Going into business rate 421 420 420 400 0.0 75~78 78~81 81~86 86~91 91~96 96~99 99~01 01~04 Source: The Small and Medium Enterprise Agency “2008 White Paper on Small and Medium Enterprises” 04~06 (年) (Year) 1981 1986 1991 1996 1999 2001 2004 2006 (Year) (年) Source: MIC “Establishment and Enterprise Census” (re-edited and rearranged) Note 1: Conducted as the “Establishment and Enterprise Census” through 1991, and in 1994 as the “Enterprise List Update Survey.” 2: The criteria for designation as a “small or medium enterprise” are as follows. • Until 1996, the standard was 300 or fewer employees (100 or fewer for wholesalers, 50 or fewer for retail, food and drink or service industries), or ¥100 million or less in capital (¥30 million or less for wholesalers, ¥10 million or less for retail, food and drink or service industries) • Since 1999, the standard is 300 or fewer regular employees (100 or fewer for wholesalers, 50 or fewer for retail, food and drink or service industries), or ¥300 million or less in capital (¥100 million or less for wholesalers, ¥50 million or less for retail, food and drink or service industries) 23 Growing disparity in performance of regional small and medium manufacturing enterprises • The inability of the few major corporations at the top of the pyramid to compete globally has had a severe effect on a large number of small and medium enterprises. Withdrawal / Movement overseas Need for direct action to open up new markets • On the other hand, there are some small and medium enterprises that have exploited the benefits of small and medium enterprise integration and acquired new domestic and international business partners. Example: A Corp., a total inspection manufacturer of highperformance screws, employs foreign personnel and directly develops overseas markets. Example: Small to medium enterprise B Corp. has large-scale lightning arrester testing facilities, and is contracted by major corporation for safety testing of aircraft. Example: Small to medium enterprise C Corp., capable of mass production of high-quality chrome, provides a stable supply and expands its volume of orders as major corporations streamline their range of contractors. Loss of work Threat of going out of business Change in number of business locations Ota Ward (Tokyo) Higashi-Osaka area 1983 2008 Approx. 9,000 Approx. 4,000 1997 2007 Approx. 12,000 Approx. 8,000 Example: Very small company D Corp., a manufacturer of molds, eliminates an intermediary design firm to conclude a contract directly with an end user, a major corporation. D Corp. improves its business performance. Source: Industrial Statistics 24 3. CORPORATE BUSINESS MODEL ISSUES 25 As global markets grow overall, Japan’s share is shrinking rapidly The problem is not with specific industries or products, but with the Japanese corporate business model Japan’s global market share Growth in world markets (Where 2001 level = 100) Lithium ion batteries 500 100 450 90 350 300 Lithium ion batteries Global share( ) 400 DVD players 250 % 200 150 DRAM memory 100 50 Car navigation systems 0 Car navigation systems 80 70 60 DVD players LCD panels 50 40 30 1988: 74% 20 10 DRAM memory 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: DVD recorders: JEITA “World-wide Production of Major Electronics” DRAM memory: WSTS Mobile phones: JEITA “World-wide Production of Major Electronics” Lithium ion batteries: derived from IT Research Institute documents Car navigation systems: JEITA “World-wide Production of Major Electronics” 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Koichi Ogawa “From Product Innovation to Business Innovation” (IAM Discussion Paper Series #1) JEITA “World-wide Production of Major Electronics” and derived from IT Research Institute documents 26 Changes in value-added acquisition strategies 1970s Late 1980s Vertical integration / Self-determination, Strong yen Japan A global-scale economic Miracle thanks to positive “friendly competition” among competitors 1990s Expansion of domestic demand through profit reduction Collapse of bubble (1991) Early 2000s Hollowing out of industry Domestic recovery through high-level integration approach Today Loss of global share Three excesses (Debt / Facilities / Employment) Bubble Compe -tition Restrictions on foreign investment enterprises, Policies to bring in foreign investment (China) Digital technology USA Vertical integration model leads to loss of global share Europe Change of strategy to open approach / division of industry Support for joint research under the EC Concentrated investment in certain areas(EMS, etc.) Movement toward modular and open approach ・Pro-patent ・Joint research in an open environment Pro-innovation ・Highly skilled professionals attracted Young Report(1985) ・Increasing competition to attract companies(cutting corporate tax etc.) ・BRICs markets brought in through open/closed strategy from around the world ・Increase in risky investment ・Strong intellectual property rights, specifications and standards ・IT-centered innovation ・Regional integration centered on finance and infrastructure Europe/N. America cooperate in Asian division of industry Asia Asian currency crisis(1997) ⇒ Major industrial realignment Low labor costs (South Korea) Bold tax reductions on investments Reform of state-owned Expansion into fields in which Japan specializes (manufacturing equipment, materials) Reclamation of global share through the modular model Investment focused on strategic areas(clean energy, next-generation vehicles, health IT) Strategic investment plan for a competitive green economy Lisbon strategy (2000) 27 Structural problems contributing to Japan’s industrial deadlock • Limitations of the outdated conventional model (Vertical integration / selfdetermination, product improvement / cost-reduction model) Past Pyramidal ,vertical integration / self-determination model [Manufacturers of assembled products]: Integration approach, increased productivity, friendly competition among competitors in the same field. [Manufacturers of components and manufacturing equipment]: Performance honed by partnership with strong manufacturers of assembled products, simultaneous development. Present Manufacturers of assembled products Components, equipment and related industries (1) Changes in world business models (2) Inability to deal with growing and emerging economies, loss of global market share Exhausting, never-ending fight to compete with companies in emerging countries over production costs. Stagnant and declining wages. If makers of assembled products fail, there is a possible collapse of related industries as a delayed reaction. 28 Cases where Japan manages to maintain share despite growth in global market Successful closed / open strategy (Digital cameras) (1,000 units) Maintenance of integration approach (Automobiles) 25.00% Number of units produced worldwide (excluding 世界生産台数(商用車除く) commercial vehicles) 53,000,000 140,000 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Japanese vehicles’ share 日本車シェア 120,000 51,000,000 20.00% 100,000 80,000 49,000,000 15.00% Digital cameras Number of units produced worldwide デジタルカメラ 世界生産台数 Digital cameras Percentage produced by Japanese corporations デジタルカメラ 日系企業生産割合 60,000 47,000,000 40,000 45,000,000 10.00% 20,000 0 43,000,000 5.00% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (projected) 41,000,000 39,000,000 0.00% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: OICA “World Motor Vehicle Production by country” → If electric vehicles go mainstream and modularization progresses, will Japan be able to keep up? Source: JEITA “World-wide Production of Major Electronics” → Can this recipe for success be applied to new technologies in the future? 29 Digital camera closed / open success strategy Like the Japanese auto industry, this is an integrationapproach field with a very high degree of interdependence MCU Fourier Transformation A/D CDS CCD Shutter Apertures AF+ Lenses DSP image processing Controllers Concentration and encapsulation of integration know-how AF and other lenses, shutters, sensors Applications M/W OS Drivers Image compression and expansion LCD Video Memory cards USB Internal structure is a complete “black box” Only external Source: materials from Univ. of Tokyo Professor Koichi Ogawa interface of digital camera adheres to global standard Increase in mass production by other companies 30 Overseas corporations have gained a competitive advantage by pursuing a strategy of standardization • Major overseas players have gained a competitive advantage by pursuing a strategy of standardization integrating the “black box” with “open” paradigm Interface standardization (In the PC field, Intel) Foreign corporations’ strategies Motherboard Standardization of specifications (In the router field, Cisco) Companies protect their Network own domain with intellectual property rights and monopolize the right to update technologies Use of open ●MPU Router protocol* All other areas are thoroughly standardized and opened, encouraging entry into the field by Taiwanese manufacturers, etc. ● PCI buses ● Motherboards Opening of peripheral field encouraged entry by emerging countries, escalating cost war Events so far While Intel maintains high profits with nonstandardized technology, Japanese corporations involved in open fields (memory, HDD, etc.) are squeezed by escalating competition (IOS**) Engagement with growing black box approach to infrastructure side (Nokia and Motorola in the mobile phone field) “Black box” approach, protected by intellectual property rights Base station control system The right to update technology is kept and licenses provided to other companies Growing black box approach to infrastructure side Interdependency Open standardization Network Mobile phone handsets Licensed corporations engage in worldwide sales, Cisco routers become the default option Japanese corporations had the world’s most advanced mobile phone infrastructure and handsets, but… Japanese corporations withdraw from router field as a result Inability to reduce costs and respond in a timely fashion to technological advances in an increasingly “black box” oriented infrastructure field leads to inability to expand overseas *IP protocol used **System “black boxed” by Cisco. IOS stands for Internetworking Operating System. Uses proprietary protocol IGRP (Interia Gateway Routing Protocol) Source: Prepared by DI based on Koichi Ogawa “International Standardization and Business Strategy” Source: Prepared by METI on the basis of DI “Survey of International Expansion of IT Industry in the Societal Infrastructure Field” (ordered by JIPDEC) 4. ISSUES WITH THE BUSINESS INFRASTRUCTURE SURROUNDING CORPORATIONS (COMPETITIVENESS FOR INDUSTRY ESTABLISHMENT) 32 Foreign-affiliated companies’ assessment of location suitability by category (Japan’s rank is declining) • Compared with just two years ago, Japan has lost a huge amount of ground to other Asian countries in terms of perceived suitability as a base for Asian operations of all categories. Most desirable country in the Asian region as a base for operations in various categories (Figures extracted for six major countries only, first and second-place choices marked for each category) FY 2007 survey Japan China India FY 2009 survey South Korea Hong Kong Singapore Japan Central headquarters for Asia region Central headquarters for Asia region Manufacturing base Manufacturing base R&D base R&D base Back office Back office Distribution base Distribution base Financial base Financial base Sales base Sales base *One country/region selected for each category *Percentage out of 209 companies (including 51 with presence in Japan), excluding companies that did not respond to the survey China India South Korea Hong Kong Singapore *One country/region selected for each category *Percentage out of 180 companies (including 30 with presence in Japan), excluding companies that did not respond to the survey Source Survey on Attitudes of Foreign-Affiliated Companies toward Direct Investment in Japan (METI: 2009, 2007) 33 Business costs are high in Japan (1) Japanese companies’ actual corporate tax burden (based on financial statements after adjustment to subtract tax incentives, etc. from the nominal tax rate) is high by international standards (approx. 10% higher). → Reason: (1) Along with the USA, one of the world’s highest nominal effective tax rates (2) Smaller-scale tax incentives in comparison with other countries Actual burden of corporate taxation (*) (average over fiscal 2006 to 2008/consolidated basis) Actual burden of corporate taxation for major corporations in Japan, South Korea, USA, China, Taiwan & Singapore (*) Actual burden of corporate taxation = Corporate tax (after application of tax effect accounting)/current earnings (average over fiscal 2006 to 2008/consolidated basis) before tax and other adjustments Japan GE (Nominal Sharp Canon Toyota tax rate) Singapore Taiwan Netherlands South Korea Sweden Germany UK France USA Japan China Note: Data presented here is for corporations for which financial data is available and which are included in the Nikkei 225 (Nikkei Average), S&P 500 (corporations making up the Standard & Poor’s stock price index, not including those headquartered outside the USA), Europe 350, and S&P Asia Pacific 100. (Excludes financial and insurance industries as well as business years in which corporations had negative current earnings before tax and other adjustments) Source: Actual tax burden data is obtained from the Nikkei 225 and S&P Compustat (database of corporate financial disclosures) PetroChina (Nominal tax rate) USA South Korea Taiwan Intel (Nominal tax rate) Singapore Singapore Telecom (Nominal tax rate) Note 1: Excludes business years in which corporations had negative current earnings before tax and other adjustments)(LG Electronics, Ford: FY 2006) Note 2: Ford’s FY 2005 corporate taxes were negative due to deeply negative tax effect accounting (income taxes deferred). Source: Data obtained from S&P Compustat (Pretax profits are given in yen values converted from dollar indications.) 34 Business costs are high in Japan (2) Japan is suffering from declining competitive power of port infrastructure. ■Number of containers passing through major ports [1994/2008 comparison] 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th Port name Hong Kong Singapore Gaoxiong Rotterdam Busan Kobe Hamburg Long Beach Los Angeles Yokohama 15th 24th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th Port name Singapore Shanghai Hong Kong Shenzhen Busan Dubai Ningbo-Zhoushan Guangzhou Rotterdam Tsingtao Tokyo 24th Tokyo Nagoya 29th Yokohama (*) Million TEU (*2) 1st ■International comparison of total costs for containers passing through ports (Costs for one 40-foot container, with Port of Tokyo designated as 100) Million TEU (*Estimate) ■International comparison of port lead times 0 days USA Germany Singapore Japan (Mar. 2001) (Mar. 2006) Port of Tokyo Vessel-related expenses Port of Gaoxiong Handling charges Port of Busan Terminal charge Target in accordance with the super hub port concept 1 day 2 days 3 days 1 or 2 days Approx. 2 days Under 24 hours 3.1 days 2.1 days Shortened to approx. 1 day Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) Kanto Regional Development Bureau”Decline in the International competitive power of Japanese Ports" (2008) 35 Business costs are high in Japan (3) Narita Airport is descending in global rank in terms of air freight handled. Ranking of world airports by volume of air freight handled 2000 ranking 2008 ranking Airport Volume (1000 tons) Airport Volume (1000 tons) Memphis (USA) 2,489 Memphis (USA) 3,695 Hong Kong (China) 2,267 Hong Kong (China) 3,661 Los Angeles (USA) 2,038 Shanghai (China) 2,603 Narita (Japan) 1,932 Incheon (South Korea) 2,424 Seoul (South Korea) 1,874 Anchorage (USA) 2,340 New York (USA) 1,817 Paris (France) 2,280 Anchorage (USA) 1,804 Frankfurt (Germany) 2,111 Frankfurt (Germany) 1,709 Narita (Japan) 2,100 Singapore 1,705 Louisville (USA) 1,974 Miami (USA) 1,642 Singapore 1,884 Source: Airports Council International web site 36 Competitive power of Japanese human resources (1) • The number of Japanese with doctorates in science and engineering is low, one fourth that of the USA and lower than the UK and Germany, which have smaller populations. International comparison of the number of people earning Ph.D.s in science and engineering (1985 – 2005) 1,000 people Japan USA Germany USA 28. 0 UK China South Korea China 14.9 (2004) Germany12. 2 UK 9. 4 Japan 7.7 South Korea 3.5 (2004) 37 Source: NSF “Science and Engineering Indicators 2008” Appendix table 2-42, 2-43 Competitive power of Japanese human resources (2) Japan has by far the smallest number of highly educated foreign workers entering the domestic labor market of any developed country. Percentage of those completing higher education who were born in foreign countries イギリス UK 15.9% Percentage of foreign-born residents ドイツ Germany 11.4% カナダ Canada Canada 25.8% フランス France 12.4% 米国 USA 13.4% 日本 Japan 0.7% ・・・10% or more ・・・Between 1% and 10% ・・・Less than 1% 豪州 Australia 28.9% Source: Based on Trade White Paper 2008 38 Competitive power of Japanese human resources (3) Compared to other major countries, Japan admits an overwhelmingly low number of foreign exchange students and highly skilled foreign workers. ・Japan admits the lowest number of exchange students of any major country. Number of students currently enrolled at institutions of higher learning (1,000 people) Number of exchange students admitted annually (1,000 people) Number of exchange students admitted ÷Number of students currently enrolled at institutions of higher learning USA UK Germany France Australia Japan 10,797 1,513 1,979 2,217 1,029 3,516 623 (2007) 389 (2007) 246 (2007) 260 (2007) 294 (2007) 123 (2009) 5. 8% 25. 7% 12. 4% 11. 7% 28. 6% 3. 5% Source: Japan Student Services Organization “Number of Foreign Students – 2009 Survey” 39 International competitive power of Japan’s financial markets Major stock exchanges such as New York or London have more international appeal than Japan’s exchanges. In Asia as well, Japan is being overtaken by emerging exchanges such as Singapore. Change各国証券取引所における外国会社上場数の推移 in number of foreign companies listed on various global stock exchanges 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 NASDAQ NASDAQOMX NYSE Euronext New York Stock (US) Exchange 1996 Source: World Federation of Exchanges “Annual Report” Tokyo Group Tokyo &SEOsaka +Osaka SE Stock Exchanges 2002 London Stock London SE Exchange Singapore Stock Singapore Exchange Exchange 2008 40 5. INCREASINGLY AGGRESSIVE INDUSTRIAL POLICIES ADOPTED BY OTHER COUNTRIES (1) Policies focusing on specific strategic areas (2) Competition to provide support for establishment of corporations (3) Joint public-private initiatives aimed at attracting large-scale infrastructure projects 41 Increasingly aggressive industrial policies adopted by other countries 1. Policies focusing on specific strategic areas ○ In the USA, investment is being concentrated on areas where future growth is expected, such as the environment and life sciences. → $2.4 billion has been set aside to subsidize 50% of the cost of establishing plants for batteries, components etc. for next-generation vehicles (EV) → The Department of Energy (DOE) has allocated $3.4 billion for the Smart Grid Grant Program. $3 billion of this is set aside for installation of smart meters. ○ South Korea is accelerating concentrated investment in areas that will drive future economic growth → Over the next five years, 97 trillion won is earmarked for investment in 17 business areas (green technology, advanced fusion, high value-added services) → Support for technological development is provided for 107 “strategic products” in eight areas including semiconductors, displays, LEDs etc. → 60 billion won in subsidies over a three-year period have been announced for the purpose of shifting to domestic manufacture of semiconductor manufacturing equipment. → A content promotion fund (equal to about ¥50 billion) has been established based on the Cultural Presidential Declaration. ○ The UK is aggressively promoting the support of specific industries with the goal of diversifying the economy away from overreliance on the financial industry. → A fund (approx. 750 million pounds) has been established to subsidize low-carbon technology and state-of-the-art manufacturing in strategically important advanced industrial projects (aerospace, offshore wind power generation, communications, etc.) ○France has designated about ¥50 billion a year to provide support for content development, cultivation of human resources, etc. ○ Germany is accelerating concentrated investment in environmental and energy fields, notably solar power. → 46.5 million euros has been earmarked to subsidize 22 projects including research and development aimed at improving the reliability of lithium ion batteries for electric vehicles (EV). Germany has set the target of having one million EV on German roads by 2020. ○ China is providing concentrated support for industrial progress in ten industrial areas (automobiles, steel, spinning, equipment manufacturing, shipbuilding, electronics / IT, petrochemicals, light industry, non-ferrous metals, distribution) as well as the culture industry. → China Culture Industry Investment Fund (approx. 10 billion yuan) scheduled for establishment 42 Increasingly aggressive industrial policies adopted by other countries 2. Competition to provide support for establishment of corporations ○ Over the past decade, developed nations have reduced corporate tax rates approximately 10% with the goal of attracting global corporations. Asian countries have reduced rates about 3% as well. Corporate tax rate 2000 2009 OECD Approx. 34% Approx. 26% Asia Approx. 28% Approx. 25% Japan USA (New York) EU OECD Asia (NIEs+ASEAN4+China) ○ Meanwhile, the Japanese rate remains high at around 40%. Jan. 2000 Jan. 2001 Jan. 2002 Jan. 2003 Jan. 2004 Jan. 2005 Jan. 2006 Jan. 2007 Jan. 2008 Jan. 2009 Source: Prepared by METI on the basis of KPMG Tax Corporation materials, etc. Note: Simple averages are given for the EU (15 countries as of 1998), OECD, and Asia (however, of the OECD countries, the tax rate as of Jan. 2008 is used for Switzerland only) ○ As previously stated, the USA will subsidize the cost of establishing plants for batteries, components etc. for next-generation vehicles. ○ In the UK, in the field of low-carbon vehicles, a “Low Carbon Economic Area (LCEA)” has been designated in northeast England, and future investment incentives (subsidies, etc.) for construction of R&D centers, etc. are being considered. ○ Germany subsidizes the costs of construction and introduction of equipment for newly established companies in almost all areas of manufacturing and service industry (up to 500,000 euros or 50% of the total cost) 43 Increasingly aggressive industrial policies adopted by other countries 3. Joint public-private initiatives aimed at attracting large-scale infrastructure projects Reasons for South Korea’s winning bid for the UAE nuclear power project 2. Cost 1. Manner of handling order • Korea Electric Power (state-owned enterprise) is in charge of handling the order • Supply of long-term, comprehensive know-how support for operation and maintenance, cultivation of human resources, etc.) • Speedy decision-making and response 3. Top-level diplomacy • Offer was approximately 20% lower than that of Japan/US or France • Comprehensive coverage of risks related to construction delays, etc. (1) Stable domestic management base (2) Backup from South Korean government (state-owned enterprise) • Six direct telephone conferences between President Lee himself and Crown Prince Mohammed • Project “HQ” set up in the President’s Office, response to all kinds of UAE needs outside the nuclear energy arena at the government level Reference: Team composition for Japan/US, France, and South Korea ● France and Korea’s bids were governmentally led, based around state-owned enterprises of which the government is the primary shareholder. ● Japan/US bids were led by a private consortium of separate but equal corporations. France South Korea EDF (public energy company) Suez Corp. Korea Electric Power Japan / USA Hitachi, Exelon Corp. JGC, Kajima, Marubeni Tokyo Electric Power Plant construction (US energy company) Support for operations GE Areva Support for operations Fuel supply (Public nuclear energy company) Plant construction Fuel supply Support for operations Fuel supply Doosan Heavy Industries, Hyundai Engineering & Construction, etc. 44 Plant construction 6. DIRECTION OF JAPAN’S INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE 45 Directions for the industrial structure conceivable from the macro demand side Direction 1. Global manufacturing industry boosts profits by competing in global markets, enlarging Japan’s overall “pie.” (Change in business model, strengthened ability to attract corporations, centralization of industry) Direction 2. Industries other than specific global manufacturing industries gain a share of growing emerging-nation markets. Increases in demand foreseeable in emerging nations (1) Infrastructure demand = Electric power, railways, water, energy conservation, urban development, etc. (2) Demand for food, clothing, shelter and cultural consumption “Emotive / cultural industry”: fashion, food, tourism, animation, etc. incorporating Japan’s culture, sensibilities and reliability (3) Volume zone / Next volume zone Direction 3. Increase in industries and investments that take a forward looking approach to social issues. → Environment, energy, measures to deal with low birthrate and aging society 46 Current industrial structure [Current] Global market [Manufacturing] Overseas markets Domestic market • Struggling due to stagnant domestic demand • Unable to meet latent demand such as services for the elderly Global manufacturing [Transport machinery, electrical equipment, steel, general machinery] Manufacturers with specialized techniques • Loss of share • Production and materials procurement have shifted overseas • Struggling due to collapse of pyramidal structure [Service industry] Industries meeting regional demand System infrastructure [Electric power, railways, water, energy conservation, urban development] Emotive / Cultural industry [Fashion, food, tourism, animation] Both have latent potential but lacking connection with overseas markets 47 Desirable direction for industrial structure to take 1. Expand the presence in overseas markets of industries other than conventional global manufacturing 2. Bridge the gap between manufacturing and service industries so as to meet market needs. • Maintain competitive power in overseas markets • Forge direct connections with overseas markets • Turn measures to deal with social issues into business opportunities (environment / energy, services for the elderly) Overseas markets Environmental and energy measures Manufacturers with specialized techniques Global manufacturing [Transport machinery, electrical equipment, steel, general machinery] System infrastructure [Electric power, railways, water, energy conservation, urban development] Needs of the elderly Industries meeting regional demand Emotive / Cultural industry [Fashion, food, tourism, animation] 48 Three areas for future acquisition of value added Value added Keeping the fully assembled product in mind, (1) Maintain hold on essential technologies (integration / black box approach), and (2) Standardize and open interfaces (3) Make inroads into the network of global players Shift from sales of single units to: (1) Export of systems needed in emerging countries (2) Supply solutions for issues such as the environment, energy and aging society (70s / 80s) Grapple directly with the market needs of growing and emerging economies, turn sensibilities, culture and reliability into a “product” Materials Components Fully assembled products After-sales Management service Supply of systems and solutions 49 Strategic areas to focus on for Japan’s future Strategic areas to focus on from now on: I. Areas capitalizing on Asian income elasticity (infrastructure, volume-zone food, clothing & shelter) II. High carbon turnover areas III. Areas growing due to low birthrate and aging society For the following areas , we will outline (1) current situation and issues to address, (2) trends of global markets and major players, (3) trends of major countries, (4) trends and strategies of Japanese major players, (5) future direction / vision and action. (1) Infrastructure in emerging countries • Energy generation, transmission and distribution networks • Water business • Information and communications • Urban development / Industrial complexes • Railways • Nuclear power • Waste management and recycling, etc. (2) Next-generation energy solutions (3) Services addressing social • Smart grids, smart communities, smart houses issues • Storage batteries, next-generation vehicles • Solar power • Green IT (LED, organic EL) etc. (4) Japan as an emotive and cultural industry capital (Introduce regional sensibilities and culture to new emerging markets) • Content • Agriculture and food • Fashion, design • Overseas expansion of small and medium enterprises • Overseas expansion of distribution industry • Tourism / Medical tourism • Daily necessities (including traditional handicrafts) • Health-related (health care, medical equipment, pharmaceuticals, nursing care) • Child-rearing • Lifestyle infrastructure service (shopping support, security services) • e-government • Cyclical industries (urban mining) etc. (5) Cutting-edge technologies • Space • Nanotechnology • Aeronautics • Superconductivity • Rare metals • Robotics • Advanced IT (cloud computing, etc.) • Functional chemistry 50