Concepts of sustainability Lectures in resource economics Spring 2004, Part 3 G.B. Asheim, nat.res. 3, updated 04.02.2004 1 Sustainability What is it? Why are we concerned? Modern technology enables Present well-being can be shared by future generations. the present generation to destroy the resource base. Why should we care? How can we tell? Does market information indicate What can we do about it? What rules for sustainable Positive net productivity means negative costs of transfer to the future. whether development is sustainable? resource management can we implement? G.B. Asheim, nat.res. 3, updated 04.02.2004 2 Sustainability: What is it? “… development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987, p.43) The Brundtland comm. is concerned with two groups: the poor of the present generation future generations We will concentrate on the question of intergen. distrib. G.B. Asheim, nat.res. 3, updated 04.02.2004 3 1 Sustainability: What is it? In words: That the present generation manages its stocks of manmade and natural capital so that the present level of well-being can potentially be enjoyed by all future generations. Formally: Let Ct indicate the well-being of generation t. Includes everything that influences the situation of generation t, not only material consumption, but also environmental amenities etc. Say that generation t behaves in a sustainable manner if it is feasible to sustain a level of wellbeing C* from t on, where C* ≥ Ct . G.B. Asheim, nat.res. 3, updated 04.02.2004 4 Sustainability: What is it? Some alternative definitions: Sustained development: Non-decreasing well-being. An inflexible definition of sustainability. Survivable development: It is feasible to maintain C* where C* ≥ CSURV is the minimum well-being needed to survive. A weak definition of sustainability. Maintaining production opportunities for the future: What does this mean? Non-decreasing wealth: Multiple capital goods (man-made & natural) Relative capital prices change over time — what is meant? G.B. Asheim, nat.res. 3, updated 04.02.2004 5 Sustainability: What is it? More alternative definitions: Non-decreasing stocks of natural capital. (a) Maintain natural capital as an aggregate; how can we tell? (b) Maintain each stock of natural capital; cannot natural resource depletion be compensated? Satisfy minimum conditions of ecosystem stability and resilience. Necessary for sustainability to maintain functioning ecosystems. Scope: Anthropocentric? Regional? G.B. Asheim, nat.res. 3, updated 04.02.2004 6 2 Sustainability: Why should we care? Sustainability is an asymmetric criterion: The future should be at least as good off as the present. Is there a normative basis for this asymmetry? Is it compatible with equal treatment of all generations? Key observation: With positive net capital productivity, there is a negative cost of transfer from the present to the future. If the present is better off than the future, then one can both increase the size of the “cake” and share it more equally. 7 G.B. Asheim, nat.res. 3, updated 04.02.2004 Sustainability: Why should we care? Properties for social preferences: Condition on technology Equity Productivity Efficiency Continuity Completeness UC DC Only non-decreasing Asheim, Buchholz & Tungodden, distributions are undominated. Justifying sustainability, JEEM 01. G.B. Asheim, nat.res. 3, updated 04.02.2004 8 Sustainability: How can we tell? Given the observation that accumulation of various forms of man-made capital (machines, knowledge) compensates for depletion of various forms of natural resources, how can we determine whether developm. is sustainable? Two questions: Is the compensation sufficient? Are natural resources becoming scarce? G.B. Asheim, nat.res. 3, updated 04.02.2004 9 3 Sustainability: How can we tell? Calculate the ‘genuine savings indicator’ (GSI): Does the market prices or calculated value of net investment in man-made capital exceed the market prices or calculated value of net depletion of natural capital? Problems: Is it possible to find market prices or estim. calculated values for all kinds of manmade and natural capital? Under what conditions do the genuine savings indicator indicate sustainability? Hartwick’s rule (Hartwick, 1977) does not mean that the Buchholz & Withagen, The GSI indicates sustainability. Asheim, Hartwick rule: Myths and facts, ERE 03. G.B. Asheim, nat.res. 3, updated 04.02.2004 10 Sustainability: How can we tell? Resource prices as scarcity measures: Check whether the market prices of natural resources increase. What conclusion can be drawn if resource prices do not increase in spite of extraction? G.B. Asheim, nat.res. 3, updated 04.02.2004 11 Sustainability: What can we do about it? Rules for sustainable resouce management Weak sustainability: Ensure a non-negative GSI. Problems: ▫ GSIs are not reliable. ▫ Do we know whether man-made capital can substitute for natural capital? Strong sustainability: Maintain each nat. res. stock. Problems: ▫ What to do about non-renewable resources? ▫ Development is not a stationary process. G.B. Asheim, nat.res. 3, updated 04.02.2004 12 4 Sustainability: What can we do about it? How to implement sustainability in a democracy? In a representative democracy, decisions are taken on behalf on the present generation. Why should such a democracy wish to implement a different intergenerational distribution than the one that results from a market equilibrium? Bequests may have external effects Bequests favoring one’s own descendents may be of value for others by contributing to a sustainable future. Effects on intertemporal preferences of sustainability indicators. Information indicating a unsustainable future may influence our bequest motives. G.B. Asheim, nat.res. 3, updated 04.02.2004 13 Sustainability: What can we do about it? Instruments for intergenerational transfers. Ensure that the market system functions in a nonwasteful manner. Create property rights for natural resources. Internalize external effects e.g. by means of Pigou taxes and tradable quotas. This is, however, not sufficient to ensure sustainability if bequest motives are too weak. Provide information that indicates whether development is sustainable. If not, then this can influence individual and social bequest motives. G.B. Asheim, nat.res. 3, updated 04.02.2004 14 Sustainability: What can we do about it? Instruments for intergenerational transfers (cont). Contribute – preferably through intergenerational co-operation – to the conservation of renewable resources in a productive state. Helps maintaining the Earth’s capacity to produce food and preventing climate change. Encourage technological progress that leads to more productive resource use rather than more productive resource extraction. G.B. Asheim, nat.res. 3, updated 04.02.2004 15 5