Topic 3 (Karine Nyborg): Social preferences and fairness • Are we perfectly selfish? • If not, does it affect economic analysis? • How to take it into account? Overview readings: – Fehr and Fischbacher (2002) – Sobel (2005) Today’s lecture • Experimental economics and social preferences • Readings: – Camerer (2003), pp. 43-100 1 A thought experiment • You receive 100 kr • Your task: Propose how to share between yourself and another person B – Your proposal is communicated to B – Full anonymity • B’s choice: Accept or reject – Accept: Both get what you proposed – Reject: Both get nothing • What is your proposal to B? (write down!) • If you were, B, would you accept 15kr? 50 øre? 60 kr? Experimental economics • Controlled environment, real incentives • History of experimental economics – 1960 + : First economics lab (V. Smith) – 1980 + : Field takes off – 2000 + : Field explodes 2 Economic vs. psychological experiments • Cognitive and social psychology – Experiments from ca. 1900 • Differences in methodology – Payment – Deception Lab and field experiments • Laboratory experiments – Voluntary, knowing participants – Baseline case vs treatment cases: Change one variable • Field experiments – Naturally occurring environment, imperfect control – Unknowing participants – Baseline case vs treatment cases: Change one variable – but: natural variation may occur – Example: Effect on charitable giving of solicitation methods (Lange et al.) 3 The dictator game • • • • • A: Dictator B: Recipient A gets amount X (ex. 100 NOK). Task: Share X between A and B B: Passive recipient X = xA + xB Let s = B’s share of X as proposed by A Let xi = i’s monetary payoff • If A cares only about his own monetary payoff: Which s will he choose? (anonymity) Dictator game findings • Typical results (see Camerer 2003): – Average s ≈ 0.2. Most common: s = 0; 0.4 - 0.5. • Larger s: – Non-anonymity – Identifiable victim («has been identified») – Deserving recipient (e.g. Red Cross) • Lower s: – Earned initial amount – Option to pass – Option to take • Substantial context dependency 4 The ultimatum game • Dictator game where B can reject A’s offer – – 1. 2. 3. 4. • If B rejects: Both get zero. If B accepts: Each gets amount proposed by A. A gets X A offers B a share s B accepts or rejects If accept, xA = (1-s)X and xB = sX. If reject, xA = xB = 0. If both care only about their own material payoff: What will they do? (anonymity, oneshot)? UG with self-interested players • Assume 50 øre is the lowest strictly positive amount • B strictly prefers 50 øre to nothing • Foreseeing this, A will never offer more than 50 øre • If A offers 50 øre, B will accept • Prediction: Minimal offers, no rejections 5 The self-interest model • Can we reason as if money = utility benefits? • Person i cares only about own income Wi : (1) Ui = ui (Wi) = ui (Fi + xi ) Fi = i’s exogenous (outside lab) income, xi = material payoff of i from experiment ui’ > 0 and ui’’ ≤ 0 – Assume xi is marginal, i.e. ui’ constant wrt xi • Differentiating: dUi = ui’ dWi = ui’ xi – Utility change then proportional to xi Nash equilibrium & subgame perfection • Nash equilibrium – Set of strategies such that no player can profitably deviate from her strategy, given the strategies of the other players. • Is {s = 0.3, accept any s ≥ 0.3} a NE in the UG? – B’s strategy is not credible • Subgame perfect Nash equilibrium – Eliminates Nash equilibria in which players’ threats are not credible (hint: backward induction) – {s = 0.3, accept any s ≥ 0.3}: NE, not SPNE • SPNE in ultimatum game with self-interested players: – If 50 øre (s=0.005) is the smallest strictly positive amount: {s = 0.005, accept any s > 0} is a SPNE {s = 0, accept any s ≥ 0} is a SPNE – If s is continuous: {s = 0, accept any s ≥ 0} is the only SPNE. 6 • Did you propose more than 50 øre? • Did you reject 50 øre? • Did you reject 15 kr? • Did you reject 60 kr? Findings, ultimatum games • Typical result (Camerer 2003): – Average offer about 0.4 – Offers of 0.5 very common – About half of offers < 0.2 are rejected • Results robust to – high stakes (up to several months’ wage) – experience • Varies with – age – culture 7 Cross-cultural studies • Henrich et al. (2001): Ultimatum games in 17 small-scale societies, 5 continents – Average offers: 0.26 to 0.58 – Rejection of small offers: Varies substantially – No economy displays both average offers and rejection rates close to zero – More market integration: higher offers – More economies of scale in local economy: higher offers? – Average offers above 0.5: • 0.51 (Ache, Paraguay), 0.58 (Lamelara, Indonesia) • Norms of potlatch/competitive gift-giving • ”Hyper-fair” offers: Frequently rejected Another thought experiment • • • • You get 600 kr You are in a group with two other students How much will you contribute to your group? All contributions are doubled, then shared equally between the 3 group members. • Earnings: 600 kr – your contribution + your share of total group contributions • Double-blind 8 Ultimatum game: • Puzzle 1: Why do proposers share? • Puzzle 2: Why do responders reject? Competition in the UG • Proposer competition – – – – – – Parallell: one seller, many buyers (move first) Several proposers make offers to single responder Responder accepts the highest offer Proposers whose offers are not accepted get 0 Result (after some repetition): s ≈ 1 Responder gets almost everything • Responder competition – One buyer (moves first), many sellers – One proposer makes offer s. If all responders reject, all receive 0. If some accept, one of them drawn randomly, receives share s. – Results (after some repetition): s ≈ 0 – Proposer gets almost everything 9 • Vernon Smith (1991): • Individuals in the lab often violate standard assumptions • Still, market institutions often produce outcomes consistent with standard theory Public good games (voluntary contribution mechanism games) • • • • • Groups of N anonymous subjects Each subject receives an amount e Choice: Share e between self and group Simultaneous choice Contributions to group: multiplied by m, then shared equally between N members (1<m< N) • Contribution maximizing group payoff: e • Contribution maximizing individual payoff: 0 • N-person prisoners’ dilemma! Only NE: everyone contributes 0 10 PG games: Typical findings • One-shot, and first stages of repeated trials: Subjects generally contribute about 40-60 % – there are substantial contributions and free-riding • Contributions decline with repetition – often rather dramatically • If players can punish each other (at a cost) – Low contributors are punished – Average contributions stay high, and may increase (even to 100 percent, or close to 100 percent). See Camerer (2003), Fehr and Fischbacher (2002), Fehr and Gächter (2002). 11 Social preferences: General findings • Compared to predictions of self-interest model, experiments find that people – – – – Share more Contribute more to public goods Trust more Sanction more • Heterogeneity: Some ”egoists”, few ”angels”, many ”reciprocators” • Behavior often contingent on others’ behavior and/or perceived intentions • Context dependency Experimental research: purposes 1. Testing the predictions of existing theories – Is subgame perfect equilibrium reached in UG? 2. Generating new theories – – – – Unexplained regularities: look for explanations Do responders reject to punish the proposer? Test the new hypothesis! Two-way interaction: Theory experiments 3. Studying behavior when theory has little to say – Testing which is strongest of counteracting effects 12 Next time • Inequity aversion • Readings: – Fehr and Schmidt (1999) – Camerer, C. (2003), pp. 101-104 (compendium) – Sobel (2005), pp 398-401 Public good games • Note: Misprint in Camerer (2003, p. 45): – Endowment = e, contribution to group = ci – Payoff to player i is x i ei c i m ( k c k ) 1 N – Individual payoff maximized at ci = 0, group payoff maximized at ci = e if 1<m<N – (not m < (1/N) as claimed on p. 45. (correct expression on p. 103; see also Fehr and Schmidt 1999, p.836. ) 13