Section 22.2
Using Prior Information in Accelerated Testing
William Q. Meeker and Luis A. Escobar
Iowa State University and Louisiana State University
Copyright 1998 W. Q. Meeker and L. A. Escobar.
Complements to Statistical Methods for Reliability Data
To be published by John Wiley & Sons Inc. in June 1998.
April 9, 1998
14h 42min
1
Bayes Method for Inference
Model for
DATA
Likelihood
L ( DATA | θ)
DATA
Posterior
f ( θ |DATA )
Prior
f(θ)
2
Plot of diuse and informative prior distributions for
the new technology device activation energy E along
with corresponding posterior distributions.
a
Difuse (uniform) prior
Posterior with a difuse prior
Informative prior
Posterior with an informative prior
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Ea
3
Plot of the marginal posterior distribution of t 01
:
Informative prior for Ea
0
2
4
6
8
Difuse prior for Ea
10
0
2
4
6
8
t_0.01
t_0.01
Drop 300C, informative prior for Ea
Drop 300C, given Ea = .8
0
2
4
6
t_0.01
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
10
t_0.01
4