Direct radiative forcing and BC
on snow in the Arctic region
Bjørn H. Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Ragnhild B. Skeie, DNV, …
Outline:
- BC on snow in the Arctic region
- RF from shipping and petroleum activities
- Effects of sea ice reduction on the aerosol direct radiative effect
- AeroCom direct RF update
BC on snow in the Arctic region
(R B.
(R.
B Skeie
Sk i ett al.,
l in
i prep.)
)
• Study of BC from fossil
fuel, biofuel and biomass
fuel
burning in the
atmosphere and on
snow, from 1750
through 2000
• Chemical transport
modelled with OsloCTM2
• Includes new code for
BC aging
• RF calculated via a disort
code
• Data comparisons on EC
co ce t at o s in 3
concentrations
3D,, BC
C
in snow
2
Modelled BC for 2006 and model
comaprison with ground observations
Modelled springtime concentration
of BC in surface snow, 2006
Model estimates are fairly
compatible with data from
Doherty et al. (2010), but
some regions warrant a more
detailed study.
Observed (red) vs modelled (green)
springtime BC concentration in surface snow
R. B. Skeie et Al. (in prep.)
3
R. B. Skeie et Al. (in prep.)
RF from FFBF BC in the atmosphere
and on snow
• Concl…
Concl
BC on snow concentration for
four regions, 1750-2000
• Change in effect of BC on
snow is weaker than change
i direct
in
di
t RF
• Strong deposition in Himalaya/
Tibet region, max RF from BC
here in 2000
• Global annual mean RF is only
y
2
~10mW/m
4
ArcAct – unlocking the Arctic ocean
The climate impact of increased shipping and
petroleum activities
(CICERO, NILU, DNV)
• Project funded by the Norwegian Researc Council
Petroleum and shipping activities at higher latitudes have increased considerably over recent
years, and a significant further increase is expected. Melting of sea ice will open opportunities
for new shipping routes and lengthen the navigation season of existing routes, as well as
open new areas for oil/gas production. We will assess, in terms of radiative forcing, the
climate impact
p
of increased oil/gas
g
and shipping
pp g activity
y in the Arctic.
5
Arctic RF from shipping and
petroleum activities – 2004 data
50-90
50-90
Burden
AOD
RF
NRF
NRF
Burden
AOD
RF
NRF
NRF
mg/m2
(550nm)
mW/m2
W/g
W/m2
mg/m2
(550nm)
mW/m2
W/g
W/m2
-9 Sulphate
0,0078
1,6E-04
-1,73
-221
-11
-0,0001
-1,6E-06
0,02
-192
-14
133 BC
0,0034
4,1E-05
5,66
1680
139
-15 OC
0,0037
2,4E-05
-0,39
-106
-17
0,0148
2,2E-04
3,56
241
16
Sulphate
0,01700
0,000596
-5,08
-299
Nitrate
0,00091
0,000009
-0,17
-190
-19 Nitrate
BC
0,00033
0,000004
0,51
1570
OC
0,00119
0,000008
-0,13
-105
Total
0,01940
0,000617
-4,86
-251
-8 Total
6
Zonal means, comparing shipping to
petroleum activities
• Studies of emission estimates for 2030 and 2050 are
under ways
7
Arctic sea ice estimates
Future estimates from DNV (Det Norske Veritas)
1988
2030
2050
Marrch
Septe
ember
8
Direct RF from sea ice reduciton
Standard tests (S):
• 2000 emissions relative
to 1850 emissions
• Sea ice from 1988,
2030, 2050
• No significant change
Sea ice change isolated (I):
• Emissions from 2000
• Sea ice from 2030 or 2050,
relative
l ti
tto 1988
Case
Zonal
means
Sea ice
RF (0-90)
RF (80-90)
S1988
2000
1850
1988
1988
-0.612
0.612
0.252
S2030
2000
1850
2030
2030
-0.614
0.224
S2050
2000
1850
2050
2050
-0.615
0.215
I2030
2000
2000
2030
1988
0 26
0.26
48
4.8
I2050
2000
2000
2059
1988
0.35
6.2
W/m2
Emissions
9
Direct RF model comparisons
f
from
AeroCom
C
•
The AEROCOM-project
p j
is an open
p
international initiative of scientists interested in the
advancement of the understanding of the global aerosol and its impact on climate. A large
number of observations (including MODIS, POLDER, MISR, AVHHR, SEAWIFS, TOMS,
AERONET and surface concentrations) and results from more than 14 global models have
been assembled to document and compare state of the art modeling of the global aerosol. A
common protocol has been established and models are asked to make use of
th AEROCOM emission
the
i i
inventories
i
t i
f
for
th
the year 2000 and
d preindustrial
i d t i l times.
ti
Results are documented via interactive websites which give access to 2D fields and standard
comparisons to observations. Regular workshops are held to discuss findings and future
directions.
• Pre
Pre-AR4
AR4 AEROCOM publication:
M. Schultz et al, Radiative forcing by aerosols as derived from the AeroCom
present-day and pre-industrial simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 5225-5246,
2006.
• Prescribed
P
ib d aerosoll direct
di
t experiment
i
t V2 ongoing
i
– so ffar have
h
data from:
CAM4-Oslo, HadGEM2, MPIHAM_V2, OsloCTM2, SPRINTARS-v384
Expect more models to join the new comparison
10
AeroCom direct RF [W/m2]
St t
Status
as off January
J
2010
All
SO4
BCFF
OAFF
BB
SOA
NO3
CSum
0,60
0,40
0,20
W/m2
CAM4-Oslo
0,00
HadGEM2-ES
MPIHAM_V2_KZ
OsloCTM2
0 20
-0,20
SPRINTARS-v384
-0,40
-0,60
-0,80
11
Do the models treat all regions in the
same way? Example comparison:
Global RFs:
CAM4-Oslo
MPIHAM
-0.05 W/m2
-0.15 W/m2
Comparisons of model treatments of arctic regions will give
valuable input towards constraining current differences
12
Plans
AeroCom: Id regions with differences, try to
understand
Ice: Radiative effects of changes in sea/ice – use
obs and models to constrain feedbacks. Eff on
other
h mechanisms
h i
ArcAct: 2030, 2050 emissions, RF…
BC snow: Further comparisons
p
with
measurements. New measurements for BC effect
on snow albedo, modelling this.
13
Backups
14
2004 emissions in the Arctic due to
shipping and petroleum acivities
Studied: SO4, BC, OC, NO3, O3
15
Arctic RF from shipping and
petroleum activities
16