Near-Term Climate Change: Projections and Mitigation Steven Smith Integrated Modeling & Energy Scientist in the Atmospheric Sciences & Global Change Division at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory While anthropogenic climate change is a long-term phenomena, anthropogenic influences on climate will also be felt in the near-term. New work examining the near-term rate of climate change will be presented showing that the rate of global and regional changes will soon be increasing to well above background levels. The talk will then examine the potential for short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) to reduce near-term climate change. SLCFs, forcing agents with relatively short atmospheric lifetimes, are a potentially attractive mitigation target. Much of the work in this area has focused on black carbon and methane. The potential for near-term climate mitigation by SLCFs was analyzed and shown to be smaller than previously estimated. Climate and atmospheric inertia reduce the near-term SLCF mitigation potential well below equilibrium values. A large portion is due to uncertainty in carbonaceous aerosol emissions and aerosol forcing in general, which was also assessed. 12:00-1:00 FREE EVENT in Burke Auditorium, Kroon Hall Lunch will be provided – first come, first served