Near-Term Climate Change:
Projections and Mitigation
Steven Smith
Integrated Modeling & Energy Scientist in
the Atmospheric Sciences & Global Change
Division at Pacific Northwest National
Laboratory
While anthropogenic climate change is a long-term
phenomena, anthropogenic influences on climate
will also be felt in the near-term. New work examining the near-term rate
of climate change will be presented showing that the rate of global and
regional changes will soon be increasing to well above background levels.
The talk will then examine the potential for short-lived climate forcers
(SLCFs) to reduce near-term climate change. SLCFs, forcing agents with
relatively short atmospheric lifetimes, are a potentially attractive mitigation
target. Much of the work in this area has focused on black carbon and
methane. The potential for near-term climate mitigation by SLCFs was
analyzed and shown to be smaller than previously estimated. Climate and
atmospheric inertia reduce the near-term SLCF mitigation potential well
below equilibrium values. A large portion is due to uncertainty in
carbonaceous aerosol emissions and aerosol forcing in general, which was
also assessed.
12:00-1:00 FREE EVENT in Burke Auditorium, Kroon Hall
Lunch will be provided – first come, first served