www.travelbehavior.us
Intercity Travel Market Analysis
Committee for a Study of Intercity
Passenger Travel Issues and Opportunities
Nancy McGuckin, Travel Behavior Analyst
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Basic Data Needs:
• Volume in Highway,
Air, Rail, other
• Mode share
percents
• Purpose percents
• Market
demographics
• Travel Time
• Cost
Map from “Why Chinatown Buses Are Still So Popular” Eric Jaffe, the Atlantic Cities, Jan 2012
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Questions about Intercity Passenger Travel:
• What are the mode shares and how
do people make mode decisions?
• What are the traveler characteristics
that are critical to understand?
• What proportion of inter-city travel
is for business? leisure?
• Are most travelers alone or with
others? Are children along on the
trip?
• Are there important trends in longdistance travel to consider?
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This presentation includes:
A Description of Long-Distance Travel:
▫ The proportion of PMT for long-distance travel
▫ Trends in Air versus Roadway long-distance travel
▫ Trends in Mode and Purpose of Long-Distance Travel
A brief Market Analysis (specifically trips of 100-500 miles)
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*Person trips of 100 miles or more from home by all travelers unless otherwise noted
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Trends show long-distance travel accounts for about
15-20 percent of all person miles of travel (PMT):
1977
1995
2001
6.3
9.8
12.1
2.2
3.7
5.1
8,816
13,120
14,690
1,584
3,075
2,642
Long Distance Person Trips as Pct of All PT
0.06%
0.05%
0.06%
Long Distance Person Miles as Pct of all PMT
15.2%
19.0%
15.2%
Long-Distance Trips per Household
(100+ miles one-way)
Long Distance Trips per Capita
(100+ miles one-way)
Annual PMT in Everyday Travel per Capita
Long Distance PMT per Capita
Source: ATS 1977 and 1995 (published) and McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS 2001 Long Distance, trips 100 miles or more
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In 2001, nearly 80 percent of trips over 100 miles were
inter-city trip length (100-500 miles):
More than
500 Miles,
21%
100-500
Miles, 79%
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS 2001 Long Distance—trips 100 miles or more by travelers 18+
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Most long distance trips in the US were in vehicles:
100%
Percent of Person Trips
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1977 ATS
1995 ATS
Private Vehicle
Air
2001 NHTS 100+
Bus/Train
Source: ATS 1977 and 1995 (published) and McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS 2001 Long Distance—trips 100 miles or more
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Trends show air passenger miles growing slightly
faster than vehicle miles of travel (VMT):
VMT
Air Passenger Revenue Miles
Linear (VMT)
Linear (Air Passenger Revenue Miles)
4.00E+12
3.50E+12
Annual Estimate
3.00E+12
2.50E+12
2.00E+12
1.50E+12
1.00E+12
5.00E+11
0.00E+00
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: HPMS VMT and Air Revenue Miles from RDM Associates, McGuckin’s trend analysis
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Trends show declines in the ticket price for domestic air
and slight increases in gas cost:
(Ticket price does not include fees and taxes (air) and gas cost does not include operating expenses
Air (ticket price only)
Auto (gas price only)
(1) start in 1995 to match 1995 ATS
0.6
(2)
http://www.planetickets.com/airfare.ht
ml Cost of Tickets for Q1 shown
0.5
(3) Current dollars calculated by
http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/
0.4
(4) Historic Gas Costs from
www.eia.gov
0.3
(5) Calculated by dividing ticket cost
in current dollars (3) by estimated trip
length (7)
0.2
0.1
(6) Assumes national average of 22
mpg (from NHTS)
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Cost per mile (dollars)
Source: McGuckin’s analysis
see notes
(7) http://web.mit.edu/airlinedata/
Revenue and Related/Passenger
Revenue/System Passenger Revenue per
Equivalent Seat Mile (PRESM).htm
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Non-auto modes were concentrated in a few areas:
Non-Auto Mode Distribution, Trips 100-500 miles
100%
Percent of Non-Auto Trips
80%
Ship/Other
60%
Train
Bus
40%
Air
20%
0%
National
NY-NJ
DC area
Philly
LA
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of 1995 ATS, trips between 100-500 miles, travelers 18-75
San Fran
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NY-NJ had more than twice the amount of
inter-city bus as the next highest metro area:
Mode Distribution, Trips 100-500 Miles
All InterNational
city Trips
NY-NJ
Philly
DC area
San Fran
LA
POV
90%
Air
7%
68%
39%
61%
57%
90%
76%
Bus
2%
19%
34%
15%
15%
7%
12%
Train
1%
5%
24%
15%
23%
1%
6%
Ship/Other
1%
8%
3%
9%
5%
2%
6%
All
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of 1995 ATS, trips between 100-500 miles, travelers 18-75
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Trends in the Purpose of Travel
Trips per Capita per Year
6.0
Purpose:
Pct Change 1977-2001:
5.0
Shopping
636%
4.0
Personal Business and
Medical
142%
Sightseeing, vacation
and relaxation
606%
3.0
Entertainment
95%
2.0
Outdoor Recreation
1.0
Business or Convention
-
Visit Friends and Family
1977
1995
2001
-19%
142%
67%
Source: published data for 1977 and 1995 ATS, McGuckin’s analysis 2001 NHTS trips of 100 miles or more
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While higher income people traveled more, middle
income people accounted for the majority of trips:
Percent of Trips
Percent of People
17.0
100K +
9.7
37.2
$50-100K
25.1
41.3
<50K
57.0
4.5
NR
The majority
of long
distance
trips were
made by
people with
household
incomes of
less than
$100K
8.2
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Percent
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS 2001 Long Distance—All trips 100 miles or more by travelers 18+, 2001 dollars
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We still don’t know how 9/11 affected mid-range
mode choice:
Air and POV(=100%) by Distance After 9/11
Air and POV(=100%) by Distance 1995 ATS
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
POV
Air
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of 1995 ATS and 2001 NHTS (post 9/11) trips of 100 miles or more one way, private vehicle and air only
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*Trips of 100-500 miles in length taken by travelers 18-75
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Inter-city travel markets can be described with
demographic groups:
Percent of Trips
Percent of People
People in Couple HHs (inc. Ret.)
People in familes with children 5+
People in families with small children-
People in Single HHs (inc. Ret.)
0%
10%
20%
30%
Percent
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS 2001 Long Distance, people aged 18-75 and trips 100-500 miles in length
40%
50%
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Basic Trip Purpose:
• Business
• Leisure/Other
‘To Work’, ‘For Business’, or
‘Combined Business and Pleasure’
‘Vacation’, ‘Visit Friends and
Family’, ‘Rest/Relaxation’,
‘Sightseeing’, ‘Outdoor
Recreation’, ‘Entertainment’,
‘Shopping’, ‘Family/Personal
Business’, ‘Medical’, ‘School’,
‘Other/NA’
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Market Segment Description:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
People in single-person or couple
HHs traveling for Business or
Bus/pleasure
People in single-person or couple
HHs traveling for Leisure/Other
People in HHs with small children
traveling for Bus or Bus/pleasure
People in HHs with small children
traveling for Leisure
People in HHs with Older Children
Traveling for Bus or Bus/Pleasure
People in HHs with Older Children
Traveling for Leisure
Retired Singles or Couples
Traveling for Any Reason
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Leisure travel was more common than business
Overall about 75% of trips are for leisure and 25% for business
People in Couple HHs (inc. Ret.) - Leisure/Other
People in Familes with Children 5+ Leisure/Other
People in Families with Small Children-Leisure/Other
People in Couple HHs (inc. Ret.) - Business
People in Familes with Children 5+ Business
People in Families with Small Children--Business
People in Single HHs (inc. Ret.) - Leisure/Other
People in Single HHs (inc. Ret.) - Business
0
10
20
30
Percent of Inter-City Trips
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS 2001 Long Distance, trips 100-500 miles in length, travelers 18-75
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The majority of trips included people who
traveled together:
Business
w/others
30-45 % of trips were by
lone travelers
55 % - 70% of trips were
people traveling with
others**
Business
Alone
NonBusiness
w/
Others
NonBusiness
Alone
**With
Children
**over one-third of these were
with children
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of 1995 ATS and 2001 NHTS, trips between 100-500 miles, travelers 18-75. 1995 ATS shows 44% alone,
56% with others, the 2001 NHTS shows 32% alone, 68% with others. Pie distribution and proportion with children from 1995 ATS.
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More than half of the trips included people who
traveled together and...
About as many people traveled with children as
traveled alone for business:
Business
Leisure
All
Traveled alone
18%
26%
44%
Traveled with other adults
5%
31%
36%
Traveled with Children
1%
19%
20%
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of 1995 ATS trips 100-500 miles in length travelers 18-75
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Purpose had a larger influence on travel party
size than income:
4
Travel Party Size
3
2
1
0
Business
Leisure Personal
Business
Total
<$40K
$40-$80K
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS 2001 Long Distance, trips 100-500 miles travelers 18-75 years old
$80K+
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And traveling with others influenced mode
choice:
Mode of travel: alone and with others
National
Vehicle Travel
Air
Bus
Train
All
Originated in NY MSA
Alone
w/ Others
Alone
w/ Others
31%
60%
28%
59%
32%
69%
40%
72%
41%
68%
26%
89%
53%
73%
30%
74%
11%
47%
27%
70%
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS 2001 Long Distance, trips 100-500 miles travelers 18-75
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Long-distance travel behavior is about motivation,
opportunity, resources, constraints, and obligations
• Trip purpose is linked to travel party size (sometimes the
fun is in going together)
• Travel party size effects mode choice (bring the kids
and we can’t afford to fly)
• Mode choice can be made before destination choice
(where can we drive to this weekend?)
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More information is needed about what motivates
travelers, what are their opportunities and constraints?
People who have
strong household ties,
such as small children,
may travel less*
People in urban areas
with many attractive
destinations may travel
less frequently*
As social
Baby boomers in second life
networking
may increase frequency of
increases, longrecurring long trips to
distance travel IRL
university and second homes may be increasing**
*Henderson and Trani, 2008
The dispersion of
treatment centers and
specialists may increase
recurring long trips for
medical purposes
**Auxhuasen, 2008
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Summary of Information on Inter-City Passenger Travel:
Trends show about 15-20% of PMT is in long-distance travel:
Overall, air grew slightly faster than vehicle travel 1995-2010
80 percent of trips over 100 miles were inter-city trip length
The purpose of long-distance travel may be shifting towards leisure activities and
personal business (inc. medical)
 Purpose has a big effect on travel party size: Travel party size effects mode decisions



Inter-city Passenger Travel (trips 100-500 miles in length):
People travel for leisure: About 25 percent of travel was business/75 percent
leisure
 People travel together: Between 56-66 percent of inter-city trips were people
traveling together—at least one third of those were with children
 Purpose and travel party size impacts mode choice: vehicle travel is 2-3 times more
likely when people travel together

About as many people traveled with children as traveled alone for business