Integrated Watershed Research
Kings River Experimental Watershed
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Hydrology
Meteorology
Air quality
Sediment & turbidity
Soils & geomorphology
Water chemistry
Biology
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Stream macroinvertebrates
Stream algae
Riparian & upland vegetation
Yosemite toad
Potential Effects of CC on California
ƒ Reduction of snowpack
ƒ Changes in timing, intensity, location,
amount, and variability of precipitation
ƒ Changes in vegetation and increased
incidence of wildfires
ƒ Increased water temperatures
ƒ Changes in human water demand
– from Dept. of Water Resources 2006
California data for past 100 years
ƒ Precipitation in central and southern
– Slight decreasing trend
ƒ Increased variability of precipitation
ƒ Total annual water year runoff*
– Sacramento rivers increasing
– San Joaquin rivers decreasing
ƒ April to July runoff
– Sacramento rivers declined 9%
– San Joaquin rivers declined 7%
*Snowpack is 20% of State’s total runoff &
35% of useable surface water
Predicted Loss of Snowpack
(Knowles 2002)
°C Increase
0.6
% Snowpack
Loss
5
Year
2030
1.6
33
2060
2.1
50
(43 to 66)*
2090
*Effect greater in northern Sierra and Cascades
1983-2004 Tree Mortality in S.N.
(van Mantgem & Stephenson 2007)
ƒ Average mortality rate increased 3% a year
– Nearly doubled for study period
ƒ No evidence for changes in recruitment rate
ƒ Correlates with stress and biotic causes
– Temperature driven drought stress
– Not mechanical or ozone stress
ƒ Forests may be poised for die-back
KREW: Sierra Nevada mixed conifer,
semi-arid climate, perennial streams,
high elevation, granite soils
KREW STUDY AREA
Part of the Kings River Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Project
Teakettle Experimental Forest
ƒ Stream discharge monitored
intermittently since 1958.
ƒ 6,725-8,090 feet elevation
ƒ 560 acres
ƒ KREW monitoring began
WY2003
Climate Change and the Sierra Nevada
• Approximate 1-2 °C rise in average temperature since
1940’s
• Models predict additional 2.5 to 9 °C rise by 2100
• This will cause:
1. More winter precipitation falling as rain instead of snow
2. Faster rate of snowmelt
3. Earlier snowmelt
The end result is:
Less water for California !
From: Peterson, et. al. “Snowmelt discharge characteristics Sierra
Nevada, California”. US Geological Survey Publication SIR-20055056, 2003.
Stream Flow and Snow Depth From Providence Creek (6500 ft) and Bull Creek (8100 ft) - 2004-2007
175
15
125
Snow Depth
Stream Flow
Providence Creek Site - P303 Stream
10
75
50
5
25
0
Oct-2003
0
Jan-2004
Apr-2004
Jul-2004
Oct-2004
Jan-2005
Apr-2005
Jul-2005
Oct-2005
Jan-2006
Apr-2006
Jul-2006
Oct-2006
Jan-2007
Apr-2007
Jul-2007
20
Stream Flow (Cubic Feet per Sec)
100
Snow Depth (inches)
150
Oct-2007
175
150
15
125
Snow Depth
Stream Flow
10
Bull Creek Site - B203 Stream
100
75
50
5
25
0
Oct-2003
0
Jan-2004
Apr-2004
Jul-2004
Oct-2004
Jan-2005
Apr-2005
Jul-2005
Oct-2005
Jan-2006
Apr-2006
Jul-2006
Oct-2006
Jan-2007
Apr-2007
Jul-2007
Oct-2007
Snow Depth (inches)
Stream Flow (Cubic Feet per Sec)
20
Cumulative discharge for KREW, water year 2004.
Fraction of annual discharge
1.0
0.8
0.6
D102
P301
B204
0.4
0.2
0.0
Oct 1
Dec 1
Feb 1
Apr 1
Jun 1
Aug 1
Oct 1
WestWide Climate Change Initiative
ƒ Ron Neilson’s modeling work
– DGVM, MC1
– Temperature min & max, relative humidity
ƒ MS students working on 800-m grid
resolution
– Maureen McGlinchy for my study area
Kings River Experimental
Watershed is made possible by:
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National Fire Plan
Joint Fire Science Program
USDA Forest Service, PSW Research Station
and Region 5
ƒ California Bay-Delta Program (CalFed)
ƒ Southern California Edison
ƒ Univ. of Calif., Santa Barbara, Merced, Berkeley,
Davis, Irvine
ƒ Univ. of Nevada, Reno
ƒ Colorado State University, Ft. Collins
ƒ Calif. State Univ., Fresno