RFF’s Center for Energy Economics and Policy
Managing the Risks of Shale Gas:
Cross-cutting findings and future research
Alan Krupnick, PhD
Director, Center for Energy Economics and Policy
June 27, 2013
Cross-cutting findings (A sampler)
• Risks to rivers and streams
• The expert survey (water withdrawal, spills, leaks,
stormwater flows, treatment of flowback and produced
water)
• The public survey: Willing to pay to reduce such risks,
more so where water is more scarce (TX>PA)
• PNAS study: Don’t worry so much about spills and leaks
• Chemical assay study: very important to treat or safely
dispose of flowback and produced water (high
concentrations of chlorides and other substances)
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Cross-cuts (2)
• Risks to wells and aquifers
• The public survey: very concerned about
groundwater risks and willing to pay to reduce them
• The property value study: This concern translates
into housing price discounts for residential
properties on water wells vs. on piped water
• The expert survey: Don’t worry so much about
groundwater pollution from fracking per se; do be
concerned about leaky casing and cementing
• Chemical assay: Flowback and produced water are
a concern
• Chlorides from 16-192 gm/L, average 100 gm/L;
seawater: 19 gm/L
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Cross-cuts (3)
• State regulations and public attitudes
• Public survey: not much difference in concern and
willingness to pay between PA and TX  regulations
should be similar; PA=TX for groundwater risks; PA<TX
for surface water risks
• Regulatory comparison
Metric
PA
TX
# regulatory elements (max
20)
19
17
Overall Stringency (Method
1)
58%
80%
More stringent
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2
Equally stringent
3
na
Water regulation stringency
(Method 1)
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Funded Future Research
• Deep dive and dialogue on the consensus pathways
• New project funded by Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
• Partnering with Environmental Defense Fund
• Participation by industry, states, NGOs
• Health and welfare effects of:
• Truck traffic (partnering with Geisinger Health Care)
• Pads, pipelines and roads on habitat fragmentation
(advisory role to The Nature Conservancy)
• Water use and re-use (Susquehanna River Basin
Commission permits; modeling - RFF)
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Other Proposed Future Research
• Governance and federalism
• Community impacts and industry interactions
• Partnering with The Keystone Center
• Enforcement; better explanations for heterogeneity
• Air and water pollution on health (partnering with Geisinger
Foundation)
• Effects on agriculture through irrigation water
quality/quantity; water rights leasing to mitigate
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Thank You!
www.rff.org/shalegasrisks
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