Future directions for
aridlands research –
an African perspective
Dr. Norbert Juergens
Director, Hamburg Herbarium and GNDRI coordinator,
Dryland Research Centre Hamburg, Germany
International
Research and
Development
Division
Friday, 22 April 2016, at the ICC room 108
Future directions for aridlands research
1
2
3
4
Context: work in the Okavango Delta and elsewhere
Weaknesses of the UNCCD conceptual framework
Presently defined focal areas (Cancun 2015)
Self-determination by the scientific community (DNI,
WOCAT, GNDRI, ICON-SLM)
1. Work in Africa
BIOTA Maroc
BIOTA AFRICA
Mega-Transects
BIOTA West
Cuvette Central
BIOTA East
BIOTA South
The BIOTA AFRICA network and its goals
Towards an integrated biodiversity observation system
AFRICA
The regional project clusters of the 76 cooperation partners as well as global monitoring initiatives collaborating with BIOTA AFRICA
INVESTIGATING BIODIVERSITY
Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)
KNOWLEDGE FOR
SUSTAINING BIODIVERSITY
BIOTA Maroc
CBTHA
Assessing Biodiversity
BIOTA East
BIOTA West
Natural resource use
Plants & Animals
Understanding drivers of change
Congo project
Biotic and abiotic interaction
BIOTA South
Predictions of changes
Scaling up
Developing capacity
Monitoring in space and time
Managing biodiversity
The Future Okavango
The Future Okavango
SP10
Stakeholder involvement, implementation, policy implications
9
Spatial analyses:
Multi-scale remote sensing & GIS-based landscape analyses
SP 9
7
7
4
5
Analysis & design of social
and economic mechanisms
SP6
Regional and transboundary
Governance
SP8
3
6
Capacity development
SP7
8
Ecological and economic
valuation of ESS
User knowledge, valuation and
regulation
1
2
Assessment of ESF/ESS related to...
SP1
SP2
Climate
Water
SP3
Soils & crops
SP4
SPC
Coordination & Data integration
Microorganisms
SP5
Plants
„Regional Science Service
Ce ters
SASSCAL WeatherNet 2015
SASSCAL WeatherNet 2015
10. November 2015:
25273 plots
vegetation & forests
SASSCAL VegMap 2015
SASSCAL ObervationNet
2015
Biodiversity Observatories
2015
Angola
Namibia
Zambia
Botswana
Arid
Zone
Südafrika
Okavango catchment
Zambia
Angola
Namibia
Okavango Delta
Okavango: climate
Mean annual
precipitation
1981 - 2010
Okavango: climate change
Change annual rainfall: 2016-2045/1971-2000
 Up to 250 mm less rain in Angola
 Up to 150 mm less rain in Okavango-Delta
T. Weber, A. Kriegsmann &
D. Jacob
Climate Service Center 2.0,
Hamburg Germany
Okavango: Modelled fluxes
J2000g
J2000g
J2000
J2000g
 Almost all the water is generated
in Central Angola
J2000g
J2000g
J2000g
J2000g
Source: Steudel, Göhmann, Baumberg,
Helmschrot, Kralisch, Flügel (Univ. of
Jena), Mosimanyana, Massamba (ORI,
Univ. of Botswana), Mwewa, Vushe
(Polytechnic of Namibia), Quintino
(INRH, Angola)
Okavango: Annual fluctuations
1600
Rundu (Cubango)
1400
Dirico (Cuito)
Mukwe
1200
Okavango at Mukwe
Discharge in cbm/s
1000
Cubango at Rundu
800
600
Source: Steudel, Göhmann,
Baumberg, Helmschrot,
Kralisch, Flügel (Univ. of Jena),
Mosimanyana, Massamba
(ORI, Univ. of Botswana),
Mwewa, Vushe (Polytechnic
of Namibia), Quintino (INRH,
Angola)
Cuito at Dirico
400
200
0
01.04.1962
01.04.1963
01.04.1964
01.04.1965
01.04.1966
01.04.1967
01.04.1968
01.04.1969
01.04.1970
01.04.1971
01.04.1972
01.04.1973
01.04.1974
01.04.1975
Okavango: planned extractions
Cubango
(m3 s-1)
Cuito
(m3 s-1)
Mean low water (October)
40
105
Anual mean
188
162
Mean high water
246
173
Highest water
960
350
Bewässer
ung
(ha)
Extraktion
(m3 s-1)
Geplant
(ha)
Geplant:
Extraction
(m3 s-1)
Angola
1,500
2
270,000
131
Namibia
2,200
2.4
15,700
12.2
Botswana
31
< 0,1
188
0,25
Source: Steudel,
Göhmann, Baumberg,
Helmschrot, Kralisch,
Flügel (Univ. of Jena),
Mosimanyana,
Massamba (ORI, Univ.
of Botswana), Mwewa,
Vushe (Polytechnic of
Namibia), Quintino
(INRH, Angola)
China
Angola
Okavango Delta
Windhoek
Gaborone
?
Angola
KAZA
Ramsar
UNESCO
World heritage
Okavango Delta
Deforestation
Agriculture
Charcoal
Deforestation until 2030
[if current change rates do
not change
Source: Stellmes, M.,
University of Trier, unpubl.
Deforested area until 2030 based on current deforestation rates: ca 3,842,000 ha.
[ca. 42% of the Miombo forests within the FORA catchment]
Fire is degrading ecosystems and their economic values
Source: Stellmes et al. (2013) Fire frequency, fire seasonality and fire intensity
within the Okavango Catchment derived from MODIS fire products.
Biodiversity & Ecology 5, 351-362.
Database:
MODI“ „a tive fire a d
„ ur ed area produ t
(2001 – 2012)
Descriptors derived:
- fire frequency
- fire season
- fire intensity
Years with fire witin 2001-2012
Stellmes et al. (2013) Fire frequency, fire seasonality and fire intensity
within the Okavango Catchment derived from MODIS fire products.
Biodiversity & Ecology 5, 351-362.
Jahreszeit der Brände
Blitzrate
Stellmes et al. (2013) Fire frequency, fire seasonality and fire intensity
within the Okavango Catchment derived from MODIS fire products.
Biodiversity & Ecology 5, 351-362.
The so alled fire trap a fire
return period < 5 years) impedes
the regeneration of young trees.
Maximaler Abstand zwischen Bränden 2000-2014
Source: Frantz, Stellmes, Röder & Hill, University of Trier, unpublished
Feuer: Entzündungsorte
Management matters!
 southern border of Zambezi
 veterinary fences
 border of Kavango West /
Ohangwena & Oshikoto
2
Weaknesses of the UNCCD conceptual framework
(a,b) Broad definitions
• a UNCCD: Desertifi atio : „Land degradation in arid, semi-arid and
dry sub-humid areas, resulting from various factors including climatic
variations and human activities
•
La d degradatio : „the reduction or loss of biological or economic
productivity = redu ed e osyste servi es
Arid lands: Relevant environmental parameters,
ressources & processes:
• Water !!!
• Energy/Heat
• Geomorphology/topography (water, erosion)
• Soil structure & texture (water, erosion)
• Soil fertility
• Well-adapted organisms
• Adapted land use (rangeland animal production, qualitativ
quantitative)
Sub-humid lands: Relevant environmental
parameters, ressources & processes, if we use the
wide UNCCD definition (semi-arid & subhumid),including 1/3 of all land, including e.g. all
savannahs
•
•
•
•
Deforestation
Rain fed agriculture
Land & water grabbing
Fire !!!
(c) Multiple possible goals – not always compatible
• Conservation of desert ecosystems?
• Maximize use of drylands?
• Sustainable use of drylands?
• Avoid degradation?
• Restoration of degraded systems?
(d) Complex societal context
• Integration of the socio-economic dimension and the ecological
dimension into a social-ecological system
• Livelihood enhancement / poverty reduction
• Stronger political dimension
(e) Multiple stakeholders
• Trans-disciplinary approach needed: integrate stakeholder viewpoints
into all research, from the very beginning of concept development.
• Large additional task
(f) Harmonization of UNCCD, UNFCCC & UNCBD
Integration and harmonization with Climate Change, with Biological
Diversity agreements
3
Presently defined focal areas for science, as by:
UNCCD 3rd Scientific Conference
9-12 March 2015
A
B
C
Diagnosis of constraints
Responses
Monitoring & Assessment
http://www.unccd.int/Lists/OfficialDocuments/cop12/cst2eng.pdf
A
Diagnosis of constraints
Aa. Interaction between (a) adaptation measures to climate change and
(b) desertification, land degradation, and drought.
Ab. Role of extreme weather events (droughts, heat stress, increased
soil temperatures, evaporation rates) in degradation processes.
Ac. Cascading effects of climate change and land degradation on the
nexus of food security, health, livelihood losses, and poverty.
Ad. Food – water – energy nexus
B Responses
Ba. Combine (a) adaptation to climate change, (b) reduction of
land degradation and (c) enhance & protect biodiversity.
Bb. Use a transdisciplinary approach
Bc. Make use of traditional and local knowledge
Bd. Traditional knowledge transfer can inform climate
change adaptation.
B. Responses (continued)
Be. Knowledge exchange needs to be enhanced at all levels.
Bf. Local strategies need to be actively incorporated.
Bg. Economic incentives and disincentives need to be
developed with all stakeholders.
Bh. Land ownership and social and national adaptation goals
need to be harmonized.
Bi. Lack of public awareness.
Bj. Financial support is needed to assist affected countries.
C Monitoring & Assessment
Ca. Biophysical indicators for land degradation can be estimated by RS.
Cb. RS data must be integrated with ground truth.
Cc. Change can be monitored using national observatories.
Cd. A common framework assessment of the three Rio Conventions
would provide insights into the benefits of of SLM.
Ce. LDN concept needs scientific support
4
Self-determination by the scientific community
(DNI, WOCAT, GNDRI, ICON-SLM
• A huge opportunity for good science
• A lot of discussion still missing
• U.S. community should become more strongly involved (e.g.
foundation of GNDRI in San Francisco)
Summary
• UNCCD is based on a number of the politically, economically and
socially weakest countries on earth
• The present approach to UNCCD goals is complex or even weak, due
to very wide definitions, a lack of clarity in several areas and the
dimension of challenges involved
• The global scientific networks have improved since the definition of
UNCCD concepts (MEA, ESS concept, GEOSS, IPCC, IPBES)
• Based on these building blocks, a new approach could be developed
by the ICON-SLM network
Components of ICON-SLM
ICON-SLM: International Consortium of Science and Knowledge
Networks on Sustainable Land Management
DNI (DesertNet International) (www.desertnet-international.org)
WOCAT (World Overview of Conservation Approaches and
Technologies, www.wocat.net)
GNDRI (Global Network of Dryland Research Institutes, www.gndi.org)