ESS
2008
Poster Session
Start date: September 2006
Graduation Date: June 2009
Research Group: Lean Advancement Initiative (LAI)
Mission Emphasis and the
Determination of Needs for New
Weapon Systems
Motivation / Problem
The process to determine needs for new weapon systems has
produced some notable successes
http://www.af.mil/shared/media/photodb/photos/040723-F-6740T-190.jpg
And some results that were
not well aligned perceived
military needs
http://www.airtoaircombat.com/images/gallery/f111_010.jpg
http://www.af.mil/shared/media/photodb/photos/021105-O-9999G-004.jpg
Military strategy is heavily
influenced by the weapons
procured. These weapons are
affected by decisions made even
before the concept exploration
phase. Many of those decisions
are made external to the
documented requirements
generation process. With budget
pressures and ever-increasing
costs for new weapon systems,
determining the military needs that
actually should be met, and
advancing feasible ideas to
successfully meet those needs, is
critical.
Key Questions
1. How can undocumented inputs to the determination
of needs for new aircraft be understood in the overall
process, and how do they influence the selection of
new systems?
Dan Gillespie, Lt Col, USAF, Ph.D. Candidate
When dealing with very complex problems with a large number of
variables, the human brain seeks ways to bound the problem. One way
this is done in the development of weapons is by emphasizing a selected
mission on which development efforts are focused. This “Dominant
Mission Emphasis” (DME) incorporates the undocumented inputs that
influence pre-concept exploration decisions.
Biases
Technology
Politics
Personalities
(Experience)
Dominant Mission
Emphasis
• Strategy,
(DME)
Doctrine, etc.
• Studies and Analysis
• Experience
(combat, exercises)
• Threat Assessments
• Existing Systems
Thesis advisor: Warren Seering, Co-Director / Leaders for Manufacturing
Committee: Sheila Widnall, Institute Professor, Aero/Astro and ESD
David Mindell, Prof, History of Mfg & Tech, ESD & Director of STS
- For a change in DME to occur it requires changing conditions,
and a recognition that conditions have changed.
- Recognition of the need for a change in DME depends on the
ability of someone or some person or group to convince enough
decision makers that conditions have changed.
- Leadership turnover (“regime change”) was not required in
order to effect a change in DME, but happened as a result of it.
- Analysis is only one of many inputs into establishing a DME,
and therefore only one input into influencing the development of
a new weapon system.
NEEDS
Documentation
JCIDS
Requirements
Generation
Process
Analysis
*JCIDS = Joint Capabilities
Integration & Development System
Feedback
Strategy/
Doctrine
Ph.D. Program
Results
The Research
Upbringing
MIT ESD
Budget
Priorities
Competition
During the early history of the Air Force a DME of strategic nuclear
bombardment influenced the design of fighters.
- Strategy is interrelated with the DME. It influences, as well as
being influenced by it.
Application
Conditions exist today which call into question the validity of the
close-in air-to-air, multirole fighter DME. As war has shifted from
large-scale conventional combat to antiterrorism efforts, counterinsurgency operations, and nation building there have been calls
for an emphasis on development assistance in a balanced
approach with kinetic operations.
2. What influences can be exerted on the “dominant
mission emphasis” under which the Air Force operates
in order to meet objectives?
Methodology
Analysis of historical case studies of USAF fighter aircraft.
>Historical:
>Evidence shows that the phenomenon is time independent.
>Security, legal, and access issues are minimized.
>Success or failure of a program can be determined.
>Case Studies:
>Most appropriate (long cycle times, few cases, how / why
questions)
http://www.ejectejecteject.com/archives/f102.jpg
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/images/AIR_F-111_Bombs_Away_lg.jpg
As factors arose that decreased the validity of that DME, it gave way to a
new one of close-in air-to-air fighters with a multirole capability.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/00791/US-aid-georgia-460_791012c.jpg
http://www.arcent.army.mil/cflcc_today/2007/august/images/aug04_12/10_04.jpg
An understanding of how undocumented inputs influence the
DME can help decision makers determine if a change in DME is
necessary, and if so how to facilitate it. This will lead to a more
rational approach to determining needs for new weapons.
Dan Gillespie
http://img389.imageshack.us/img389/1091/yumaf15bankingem0.jpg
http://masbagus.files.wordpress.com/2008/02/f-16c1.jpg