Integrating Science with Resource Management through Collaborative Approaches and Adaptive Modeling Systems:
Project FRAME (Framing Research to support Adaptive Management of Ecosystems)
ABSTRACT
– The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the science agency of the Department of
Interior (DOI) and provides science in support of resource-management needs. Identifying the science
needs and framing the right science questions, together with developing and delivering tools that make
the science information useable, are crucial to linking science to decision making. The FRAME (Framing
Research to support Adaptive Management of Ecosystems) project integrates:
Collaborative approaches to framing the appropriate science questions to meet resourcemanagement needs
Database-Centered Decision Support System Toolbox
Resource
Management
Alternatives
Adaptive modeling tools to develop and deliver scientific information that accommodates the
DMI
Object User Interface
interrelationships of landscape parameters and their variability with changing environmental and
management circumstances
DMI
Interface for data visualization
and modeling
DMI
Capacity building to enhance the abilities of scientists to work in collaborative problem-solving
environments, and the abilities of resource managers to effectively use adaptive-modeling tools.
The ultimate goal is to bring together collaborative approaches to framing science questions with
modeling tools applicable to multi-objective management needs across a wide range of ecosystems.
Development of this strategy requires a multi-year effort; however, we have begun development of the
approach and tools with an initial focus on selected management issues in a single geographic region.
We selected the Colorado Plateau because it is an area dominated by federal lands, and DOI and USDA
agencies are currently re-evaluating land-management strategies because they face fundamental
changes in ecosystems in this region http://www.mpcer.nau.edu/direnet/. The initial focus of FRAME is
the management of pinyon-juniper ecosystems at Mesa Verde National Park.
Collaborative Approach:
Framing of the specific science questions that derive from pinyonjuniper management issues is accomplished collaboratively through a
focus group of resource managers and scientists (the FRAMErs) with an
emphasis on the decision context. These science questions are used to
develop the modeling tools. Collaborative identification of issues and
framing the questions helps overcome the common pitfalls of attempts
to link science to resource management and ensures a focus on the
decision context. Collaboration goes beyond consultation--all parties
learn from each other in the process.
Capacity Building
Adaptive Modeling Tools
Resource
Database
DMI
DMI
Modular Modeling
System
SIMPPLLE
Vegetation Dynamics Models
Physical Process Models
Resource-management models are linked to
vegetation-dynamics models and physicalprocess models using a common resource
database
and
system-supported
datamanagement interfaces (DMIs). Simulated
changes in vegetation conditions that result from
disturbances such as fire, insect infestation,
disease, harvesting, and thinning can be used to
estimate parameters for physical-process
models to assess the effects of alternative
management strategies on a variety of
hydrological and ecological responses. Analysis
and visualization tools provide measures for use
in these assessments. The modular toolbox
design enables the immediate integration of
advances in physical and biological sciences,
GIS technology, computer technology, and data
resources into the toolbox.
SIMulating Patterns and Processes at Landscape scaLEs (SIMPPLLE)
Potential to Maintain Existing Old Growth
Existing Old Growth and the simulated probability
of stand replacing fire in the next 10 years
Probability of Stand Replacing Fire
Existing Old Growth
Quantification of historic cycles
TOTAL FIRE - HISTORIC REPRESENTATION
Mesa Verde NP
acres
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
TOTAL
5000
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49
simulation decade
SIMPPLLE is a spatially explicit landscape-scale system for simulating
vegetation changes caused by the disturbance processes of wildfire,
insects, and diseases. An important component of the system is the
interaction between disturbance processes and spatial patterns of
vegetation. Output is provided for both individual vegetation units and
the entire landscape modeled. For individual units, the system provides
the disturbance processes modeled, their occurrence probabilities, the
changes in vegetation conditions, and whether a process originated
within a unit or spread to a unit. The acres of vegetation conditions,
acres of each disturbance process, and acres of treatments are
displayed by yearly or decade time steps for the entire landscape. These
results can be used by managers to quantify current trends in vegetation
conditions and disturbance processes; to create a representation of
historic conditions; to quantify the range of variability for both vegetation
conditions and disturbance processes; and to test the impact of
management actions. These capabilities can help managers design and
evaluate management strategies in the context of dynamic landscapes.
HISTORIC-REPRESENTATION -PIED-Bark Beetles
Mesa Verde NP
Mesa Verde FRAME project:
With a new Fire Management Plan in progress, the park quickly needed a better way to evaluate the long-term
consequences of different management alternatives under different environmental circumstances. The unique
natural and scientific values of the park’s old-growth pinyon-juniper woodlands are at risk due to recent
ecological changes driven by drought. About half of the park’s stands have been eliminated by high intensity
wildfires in just a matter of a few decades. Many of the surviving but drought-stressed pinyon pines were
succumbing to bark beetle infestations. Major concerns regarding sustainability and regeneration include
climate variability, wildfire frequency, invasive alien plants, effects of fuels treatments, and the relatively small
size of the park, which does not meet the minimum dynamic area required to sustain the full range of natural
variability of pinyon-juniper woodlands by natural processes alone.
Mesa Verde's rapidly changing woodlands are likely to provide a responsive environment to study and measure
the effects of environmental change, an important theme in interpreting the prehistoric and modern use of the
Four Corners area. The information obtained from these studies is crucial in developing long-term landmanagement plans with old-growth pinyon-juniper woodland conservation as a stated goal.
Model development has facilitated the explicit specification of assumptions that underlie the comparative
analysis of fire-management-plan alternatives for pinyon-juniper ecosystems and the uncertainties
attributable to limited scientific information. This process provides transparency and enables the critical
examination of assumptions by fire-management-plan stakeholders. Spatially explicit simulation models will
generate hypotheses concerning future trajectories of pinyon-juniper ecosystems and valued ecosystem
attributes. The integration of simulation modeling into management planning will allow participants to
examine and compare potential outcomes of proposed management alternatives in relation to management
objectives and desired conditions.
FRAME enhances the capacity of scientists to work in collaborative problem-solving environments,
and of resource managers to effectively use adaptive-modeling tools to address complex resource
management issues .
The Future of FRAME
The FRAME effort in Mesa Verde National
Park is a pilot project to develop a collaborative
approach to integrating science into resource
management through modeling that can be
expanded to other regions and other resource
management issues on the Colorado Plateau.
3000
acres
Resource managers at Mesa Verde National Park were
very receptive to the idea of modeling pinyon-juniper
woodlands to guide critical decision making in the
coming years. Managers of national parks are required to
use the best available scientific information in making
management decisions. At Mesa Verde, research is
encouraged, and the staff takes pride in facilitating
scientific investigations. Managers believe that a focus
on pinyon-juniper research, monitoring, and conservation
management can succeed in maintaining this community
and its biodiversity. Another important issue involves the
park’s archeological treasures. Sustaining a natural
vegetative ground cover may be an important factor in
retaining artifacts and archeological sites.
Models are an essential means of incorporating
science into adaptive ecosystem management
Resource Planning and
(Christensen et al. 1996). In the FRAME project,
Management
the modeling process has enabled managers
and scientists to engage in a constructive
dialogue about natural resource-management Research and
Resource
Adaptive
Text to be added to
objectives. The interaction begins with the
Management
Model
Management
describe general
identification of critical resource-management Development
Issues
concept of linked
issues. The managers and scientists then
models
collaboratively frame the appropriate science
questions to address the issues. Research and
Collaborative Framing of
model development are then conducted to
Science Questions
provide the tools and techniques necessary to
evaluate alternative management strategies. Selected management strategies can be implemented. A
fundamental component of adaptive resource management is a monitoring program designed to gather
data for evaluating the success of management actions in promoting desired conditions. Simulation
models also can aid in the selection of monitoring attributes that will provide effective feedback to
managers and enable them to adjust management strategies in relation to changing conditions.
2500
2000
1500
Geographic Future: To adequately model pinyon-juniper within Mesa Verde National Park, it is desirable
to model pinyon-juniper woodlands in a series of scenarios based on nested Minimum Dynamic Areas
(MDA’s) for this system type. The concept of nested MDA’s allows us to begin with one that would
include the Park boundary with a ¼ mile buffer, and expand ultimately to the Colorado Plateau.
PIED-BB
1000
500
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49
simulation decade
Modular Modeling System (MMS)
MMS is a modeling framework that supports the integration of models and tools
at a variety of levels of modular design. Design levels include individual process
models, tightly coupled models, loosely coupled models, and fully integrated
decision support systems. A geographic information system (GIS) interface, the
GIS Weasel, has been integrated with MMS to enable spatial delineation and
characterization of basin and ecosystem features, and to provide objective
parameter-estimation methods for selected models using available digital data
coverages and landscape model outputs. Optimization and sensitivity-analysis
tools are provided to analyze model parameters and evaluate the extent to which
uncertainty in model parameters affects uncertainty in simulation results. A variety
of visualization and statistical tools are also provided.
The Object User Interface (OUI) is a map-based interface for acquiring,
organizing, browsing, and analyzing spatial and temporal data, and for
executing models and analysis tools. OUI is the key component of MMS
for developing loosely coupled models and DSSs. The functional
components of the OUI are a hierarchical data tree, a map window for
display of, and interaction with, one or more data-tree themes. The spatial
data layers are stored in an ESRI shape-file format. The display and data
tree provide action buttons to initiate model applications, evaluate model
results using a variety of statistical and graphical tools,
analyze
associated spatial and temporal data, and generate a 3-D animation of
simulated model states. The contents of the data tree and pull-down
menus are specified using the eXtensible Markup Language (XML).
Model
Builder
MMS Interface
Participatory Future: It is also desirable to expand the collaboration to include participation by citizen
and stakeholder groups.
Thematic Future: The management of pinyon-juniper (PJ)
woodlands was selected as the initial focus for the
development of our approach. PJ woodlands are abundant
in the Colorado Plateau region (25 million ha).
PJ
management involves a number of cross-cutting
management issues, such as grazing, OHV use, soil
erosion,
ecosystem
restoration,
fire
management,
urban/wildland interface, woodcutting, invasive species,
coal-bed methane development, and recreational tourism.
Literature Cited
Christensen, N. L., A. M. Bartuska, J. H. Brown, S. Carpenter, C. M. D'Antonio, R. Francis, J. F. Franklin, J.
A. MacMahon, R. F. Noss, D. J. Parsons, C. H. Peterson, M. G. Turner, and R. G. Woodmansee. 1996. The
report of the Ecological Society of America Committee on the scientific basis for ecosystem management.
Ecological Applications 6: 665-691.
George Leavesley, USGS, Denver Federal Center, george@usgs.gov; Jim Chew, USDA Forest Service, jchew@fs.fed.us;
Christine Turner, Central Energy Resources Team, USGS, cturner@usgs.gov; Richard Zirbes, USGS, Denver Federal
Center, rjzirbes@usgs.gov; William Romme, Colorado State University, romme@cnr.colostate.edu; Mark Miller, Southwest
Biological Service Center, mark_miller@usgs.gov; Allan Loy allan.loy@nps.gov and George San Miguel, Mesa Verde
National Park, george_san_miguel@nps.gov; Lisa Floyd-Hanna, Prescott College, lfloyd-hanna@prescott.edu; Neil Cobb,
Northern Arizona University, Neil.Cobb@nau.edu