Global Foodservice Trends Bulletin - incorporating implications for Irish foodservice suppliers Issue one – August 2010 Prepared for Bord Bia by Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture AIDAN COTTER Growing the success CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA of Irish28food & horticulture JANUARY 2009 Introduction Welcome to the first edition of Bord Bia’s Global Foodservice Trends Bulletin. The bulletin has been designed to provide insight and inspiration to Irish foodservice suppliers by identifying key global market trends which may spark new thinking and new directions – be they strategic, service or product based. The bulletin will be updated and circulated three times per annum. Each publication will look at global foodservice trends taking place at a product, consumer and operator level and examine the implications of these trends for Irish suppliers. We hope that you will find the information beneficial. Your feedback is most welcome, please feel free to email any thoughts and /or suggestions to maureen.gahan@bordbia.ie Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture CONTENTS Product trends and implications What’s hot today What could be hot tomorrow Consumer trends and implications Obesity: food’s global endemic Food concerns Operator trends and implications Foodservice going green Chain development What’s hot in global foodservice today? Asian fusion has become ethnic fusion Asian fusion is the combination of different Pacific cuisines, this has now extended to the fusion of other “national” cooking styles – often with ethnic heritages. Healthy fast food is on the upturn – look at the UK concepts - Pod, Sumo Salad, Leon, Chop’d, Wasabi, Itsu and Ping Pong. Food fashions follow the tourism trail – the current global hot spots are south-east Asian (Thai, Vietnamese, Burmese, Indonesian, Malay) and Peruvian. Super healthy – best exemplified by super fruits (acai, goji berry, mangosteen). Super authentic – sourcing is moving from a retail to a foodservice issue:- salmon has become “North Atlantic Salmon” other seafood is “line caught”. Bakeries and delis have led the way in outlets that combine foodservice with retail – anticipate further growth and development. Events – be they business meetings or rock concerts, have become one of the most dynamic new foodservice channels. Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture What could be hot tomorrow? Minorities become mainstream cuisine, for example – Allergy related (gluten-free, lactose free) Vegan Anything organic. Extremes (modern and ancient) – Chefs are exploring all sorts of “new” cooking techniques and also looking at “old” foods , for example: Molecular gastronomy (see http://khymos.org/recipe.php) Traditional ingredients: Oats has been the historic success story. Kamult, an ancient grain (close relative to durum wheat) is considered nutritionally superior. Spelt is another ancient grain, related to wheat and with health benefits. Game, in particular venison, is an example of a traditional food that is likely to feature more on menus of the future. Health hits – an extension of the “energy” foods and drinks concept. These are already appearing in the form of small cans of energy drinks and are likely to evolve in the form of on-the-go products that can provide short, healthy snacks. Nomad consumption – “I want what I want, when and where I want it!” Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Product trend implications for Irish suppliers Implications: Use trends to build product advantage 1. Menu trends: In a world in which everything is accessible to consumers, food is a price based commodity and value is added through “values beyond food.” For yesterday’s foodservice this was found in either consumer convenience or indulgence. Irish suppliers need to seek relevant values beyond food to differentiate their products in the eyes of both consumers and foodservice operators. Think about: 2. • Sustainable seafood where the benefit beyond food is ethical feel-good. • Innocent smoothies where it is an ethical, convenient health fix . • Local sourcing where it is environmental and local economy. Hot trends: Think about what is happening elsewhere, could it come to Ireland and in what form? Use it to build operator relationships, or as platforms for NPD. Think: • Today’s value added is tomorrow’s price driven. Innovation has to be a way of life. Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Obesity: food’s global endemic “Obesity is primarily a US issue and affluence driven?” Wrong, two emerging economies have the 2nd and 4th highest rates in the world. Despite their healthy diet, nearly one-in-ten Italians is now obese. Obesity rates in the UK and Australia have tripled in the past three years. Obesity is driving a global chain reaction. Mexico seeks to ban junk food and drinks in its schools. Pepsicoisisreducing reducingthe the Pepsico sodium,fat fatand andsugar sugar sodium, levelsininits itsproducts productsand and levels increasingwhole wholegrains, grains, increasing fruits,vegetables, vegetables,nuts, nuts, fruits, seedsand andlow lowfat fatdairy dairy. seeds Colour coded labels in in the the UK. UK Compulsory Health departments globally disclosure of are developing new methods calories on New to reduce consumption of York menus. Growing thesalt success of Irish food & horticulture saturated fats, and sugar. Smaller portions and Smaller portions andare balanced nutrition balanced nutrition are among the hot menu among hot menu trends the in North America. trends in North America Food concerns are a growing issue globally Concern over food nutrition, health and animal welfare is increasing and driving food regulation – everywhere. US restaurant chains need to include calories on menus. Chile proposes a tax on food with excess fat or salt. Mexican food must display nutritional information. Russia plans tax benefits for companies providing full employee nutrition at work. South Africa regulate trans fats. In-flight meals in Brazil will have to display nutritional information. Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Some celebrities are taking on food concerns, which have become the new “fur”. Consumer trend implications for Irish suppliers Implications: Respond, you have no choice 1. Obesity: According to the OECD, Ireland is a mid ranking country in terms of obesity with 13% of its adult population obese – some way behind the UK’s 24% (and heading in that direction), but way ahead of Japan’s 3%. Obesity will be an issue in Irish foodservice. In certain channels (schools and health) restrictions will be applied. In others (QSR) there will be adverse publicity and campaigns. Suppliers should start thinking now and at a minimum have in place a fall back position. At best, they need to be ahead of the game and use it to both protect and differentiate products. Think about: • Reducing trans fats, sodium, salt and sugar. • Channels that will be impacted most. • The Weight Watcher logo is appearing on McDonalds menu boards in New Zealand. “The Restaurants Association of Ireland is delighted to support the annual Happy Heart Eat Out Campaign” 2. Food regulation: Learn to live with it and even love it because it will not go away. However the focus is moving from HACCP type production-issues relating to hygiene and safety, to product focused nutrition, health and welfare issues. Control over these fields is moving from influence-able consumers to intractable regulators. Get ahead of the game, benefit from being a leader and if others follow it delays the imposition of increased regulation. Think: • Excellence in nutrition, health and welfare has to become a core company competence. Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Operators and suppliers are going green Among UK consumers, the three main ethical concerns are: 1. Ethical trading 2. Animal welfare 3. Environmental impact Concerned consumers are driving green companies McDonalds •82% of packaging from renewables. •Recycling rates of over 90%. •80% of cooking oil goes into biofuels, of which 30% used in McDonalds trucks. •Eco friendly outlet roll-out. Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Conagra foods •Reducing greenhouse gases, water use, packaging and solid wastes. •Supply chain improvements in energy, material and agricultural practices. The trend towards chains Foodservice chains, particularly international chains, outperform both their smaller rivals and the market through the recession and beyond. Chains will dominate the mainstream foodservice segments in most countries. They will be the key customer. Q1 2010 revenue growth 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Growing the success of Irish foodYum! & horticulture Starbucks Brands McDonalds Compass Operator trend implications for Irish suppliers Implications: it’s customers, customers, customers Respond to emerging needs of both foodservice operators and consumers. 1. Going green: Today’s consumers are concerned consumers – be it health, environmental or ethical concern. They are also informed consumers able to access and act on information – 73% of US consumers use social media and 39% of these use them for restaurant reviews. Foodservice operators will increasingly only use companies that stand out on consumer concerns. Early starters will have the opportunity to differentiate their products, late starters will risk becoming excluded. Think: • Green is a fact of life, short term it can be used to get advantage, long term you have no choice. It’s time to move beyond wholesale. 2. Key foodservice customers: Ireland today is a very traditional foodservice market, with 86% of value in independent outlets supplied by wholesalers. This is low, in France foodservice chains hold 22% of the market, Germany 26%, in the UK it is 44%. Ireland will follow this pattern with growing operator chains increasingly dealing direct with suppliers. Food suppliers need to identify the growing and embryonic companies and build caste iron relationships. Think: • I need to move along the value chain, engage operators and “involve” consumers without antagonising wholesalers. Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Global Foodservice Trends Bulletin - incorporating implications for Irish foodservice suppliers Issue one – August 2010 Prepared for Bord Bia by Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture AIDAN COTTER Growing the success CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA of Irish28food & horticulture JANUARY 2009