Plant Ecology 138: 203–216, 1998. © 1998 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands. 203 The role of water depth and soil temperature in determining initial composition of prairie wetland coenoclines Eric W. Seabloom∗ , Arnold G. van der Valk & Kirk A. Moloney Department of Botany, 353 Bessey Hall, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011–1020, USA; ∗ Present address: National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State St., Suite 300, Santa Barbara, CA 93101–3351, USA Received 4 September 1997; accepted in revised form 26 May 1998 Key words: Environmental gradient, Germination, Regeneration niche, Seed bank, Zonation Abstract In this study, we examined the effects of water depth and temperature on seedling recruitment from a prairie wetland seed bank. We collected seed-bank samples from natural and restored prairie pothole wetlands in northwestern Iowa and combined them into a single sample. We examined seedling recruitment from this seed-bank sample in an experimental study using a factorial design of 4 temperature treatments (5◦ night and 15◦ day to 20◦ night and 30◦ day) and 3 water-depth treatments (0, 2, and 7 cm). Principal Components Analysis showed that both water depth and temperature had significant effects on the composition of the seedling community as measured by changes in relative stem density and biomass. Water depth had its strongest effects on stem density while temperature had its strongest effects on biomass. For the 22 most common species, stem density varied with water depth for 95% of the species and with temperature for 50% of the species. Most species with water depth responses had lower stem counts as water depth increased, and for the majority of species with temperature responses stem density increased with temperature. Total, annual, and perennial species richness was negatively correlated with water depth. Total and annual species richness was positively correlated to temperature, while perennial species richness was unresponsive to temperature. In addition, species found at low elevations as adults emerged at higher rates in the deep water treatments while species that occurred at higher elevations as adults had their highest emergence rates in the low water treatments. Our results suggest that differences in environmental conditions along coenoclines can affect the initial distribution of species emerging from the soil seed bank. Water depth sorted seedlings according to their adult water-depth tolerances, and temperature determined the proportion of annuals in the seedling community. Introduction Coenoclines, i.e., vegetation zones perpendicular to environmental gradients, are formed when environmental conditions differentially affect rates of seed production, propagule dispersal, seed germination, seedling mortality, and/or adult mortality among species (Grubb 1977; van der Valk & Welling 1988). Environmental effects on dispersal, germination, and seedling mortality define a species’ regeneration niche (i.e., Grubb 1977), while adult mortality defines its adult or habitat niche (i.e., Grubb 1977). The im- portance of preemption in determining community composition suggests that the recruitment of seedlings may be a critical stage in the development of a coenocline (Grace 1987; Robinson & Dickerson 1987; van der Valk & Welling 1988; Drake 1991; Weiher & Keddy 1995a, b). If the regeneration niche is a critical factor in the development of a coenocline, then the distribution of adult plants will be a function of both the current environmental conditions and the conditions predominating during recruitment events (Gleason 1926; Sutherland 1974; Welling et al. 1988). For this reason, an understanding of species’ regener- 204 ation niches may be fundamental to understanding the of distribution adult plants. In this study we examined the importance of the regeneration niche in determining the initial composition of coenoclines in prairie wetlands. We did this by subjecting a series of seed-bank samples to a factorial combination of water-depth and temperature treatments in growth chambers. While water depth and temperature have been shown to affect the composition of the seedling community, we are not aware of any studies that have examined the interactions between these two environmental factors. Wetlands are excellent systems in which to study how regeneration niches affect vegetation patterns for three reasons. First, the distribution of adult wetland plants is dominated by a single environmental gradient, water depth (Spence 1982). Changes in water depth are associated with changes in a variety of environmental factors (e.g., light, soil nutrients and particle size, and gas exchange rates) that physiologically constrain species’ distributions (Keddy 1982; Spence 1982). Despite the importance of water depth, attempts to model the distribution of wetland plants based solely on adult water depth tolerances have generally been unsuccessful (de Swart et al. 1994). This suggests that additional factors (e.g., species’ regeneration niches) are important in determining the structure of the coenoclines that form along the elevational gradient in wetlands (Wilson & Keddy 1985; de Swart et al. 1994). Second, seedling recruitment plays an important role in maintaining wetland communities. In prairie wetlands, high-water induced mortality periodically creates large openings in the emergent vegetation (Harris & Marshall 1963). However, few emergent species are able to germinate under standing water (Kadlec 1962; van der Valk & Davis 1978), and these openings are mostly revegetated by seedling recruitment from the seed bank during subsequent periods of low water (van der Valk & Davis 1979; Welling 1987; Poiani & Johnson 1989; Grillas et al. 1991). These recruitment events are dominated by annual species that are totally reliant on the creation of these open mudflats (Salisbury 1971). Third, species must differ in their regeneration niches for recruitment events to change community composition (Hutchinson 1961; Grubb 1977). In wetland systems, the regeneration niches of emergent species are differentiated by both water depth (e.g., Keddy & Ellis 1985) and temperature gradients (e.g., Galinato & van der Valk 1986). Water depth has been shown to affect seedling community composition in observational studies (Kadlec 1962; Harris & Marshall 1963; Smith & Kadlec 1985) and experiments (Keddy & Ellis 1985; Keddy & Constabel 1986; Weiher & Keddy 1995a). Our expectation at the outset of this experiment was that species with little tolerance for flooding would have germination rates that were negatively correlated with water depth, because they would not be able to survive in flooded soil. Flood-tolerant species would be expected to have germination rates that were positively correlated with water depth, because this germination response would place their seedlings in areas with fewer potential adult competitors (Keddy & Ellis 1985). Most plants can grow in the mesic prairie surrounding the wetlands, but only a few species are able to tolerate flooded conditions deep in the wetland basins (Seabloom 1997). It is important for these stress tolerant species to avoid competition, because they often have a lower competitive ability (Wilson & Keddy 1986) Germination rates of wetland plants also vary along soil temperature gradients (Thompson & Grime 1983; Galinato & van der Valk 1986; Hogenbirk & Wein 1992), and this response may cause shifts in the composition of seedling communities (Welling 1987). Because annual species can only reproduce in disturbance-created openings characterized by high soil temperatures (Salisbury 1971), we expected that the germination of many annual species would be triggered by high soil temperatures typical of exposed mudflats, because these mudflats represent safe sites for seedling establishment (i.e., Harper 1977). We conducted a growth chamber experiment to determine the effects of water depth and temperature on the seedling community recruited from a prairie wetland seed bank. Methods Seed-bank sample collection and preparation We collected 43 seed-bank samples for this experiment in September of 1994 from 6 restored and 8 natural wetlands (mean number of samples per wetland = 3.1). These wetlands were located in the northwestern Iowa counties of Clay, Dickinson, Emmet, and Palo Alto in the United States. The wetlands ranged from 50 to 300 m in diameter, had closed drainages, and had been free of human-caused hydrologic disturbance 205 for at least three years. Each of the collections was composed of approximately 4 l of the top 5 cm of soil. In order to make the comparison between species’ germination response to water depth and adult distribution along the water-depth gradients described above, we needed to collect soil samples in a manner that maximized the likelihood of including seeds from species for which we had adult distribution information. We did this by collecting soil in each wetland beneath stands of vegetation composed of species that occurred in the adult distribution studies described below. At the completion of the sampling, we had collected soil samples beneath stands of 34 species that were in our adult field surveys. We diluted these samples with water to make a slurry and homogenized them into a single batch using a concrete mixer. We removed undecomposed plant material by hand picking and straining the soil slurry through a coarse sieve (5 cm mesh). We placed 500 ml of this seed-bank sample on top of 1500 ml of sterile potting soil in each of 192 five liter pots. Each pot had a layer of seed-bank sample two cm thick and 333 cm2 in area. We randomly assigned the pots to the experimental treatments based on the order they were taken from the concrete mixer to control for the possible effects of seeds settling or becoming more scarified in the bottom of the mixer. After watering the soil to saturation, we covered each pot with a plastic lid and stratified them in the dark at between 0◦ and 5 ◦ C for 4 to 27 weeks (stratification period effects were accounted for by the blocking effect, Trial, described in Methods of Analysis). The covered pots remained moist, and no germination occurred during stratification. Pots were transferred directly from the cooler to the growth chambers over the course of the experiment. Experimental design The growth chamber experiment combined four replicate, 6-week trials, and used four 1.4 m2 growth chambers (Conviron, Model E-15). The chambers were lit by a combination of incandescent and fluorescent bulbs that produced a light intensity of 960 microeinsteins at 15 cm from the bulbs (light intensity from model specifications) and were set on 16 hours of light per day. During each trial, pots were assigned to a factorial combination of four air temperature treatments (5◦ /15◦, 10◦ /20◦ , 15◦ /25◦ , and 20◦ /30◦ night/day) and 3 water-depth treatments (0, 2, and 7 cm). Tempera- ture treatments were distributed among the chambers and trials in a Latin square design, so that each of the four temperatures was assigned once to each of the four chambers. Each chamber contained 12 pots placed in a randomized-block design with four pots assigned to each of the three water-depth treatments. These blocks accounted for environmental variability within a growth chamber. The four pots in each block were treated as subsamples, and their mean was used in the data analysis. A growth chamber within a single six-week trial was the experimental unit for the temperature treatment, and the four pots with the same water depth within a chamber were the experimental unit for the water-depth treatment. We filled the pots in the growth chambers with water to one of three depths: 0, 2, or 7 cm. The pots in the shallow treatment (0 cm) had drainage holes, but the high levels of clay in the seed-bank samples and the large amount of peat in the potting mix kept the seedbank samples near saturation. Over each 24-h period between water additions, the water level dropped a maximum of 1 cm in the high temperature treatments and imperceptibly in the coldest treatments. Soil and air temperature were recorded at 30-min intervals using a data logger. Soil temperatures were measured using a thermocouple placed 1 cm into the soil in one of the pots assigned to each of the three water depths in each chamber. Maximum soil temperature was typically five degrees higher than the air temperature, but the two measurements did not differ in their minimums. Soil temperatures were similar among the water-depth treatments. Growth chamber data collection At the end of every trial, we counted and removed all identifiable seedlings from the pots. In the case of rhizomatous species, we counted genets. After making the stem counts, we weighed the six most common species in each trial (Table 1). These species were readily identifiable at emergence, and we could collect all of individuals present at the end of each trial. We dried the biomass samples for at least 8 h at 70 ◦ C and kept them sealed in a plastic box with silica gel desiccant prior to weighing to the nearest 0.1 mg. After making the biomass collections and initial seedling counts, we moved pots with unidentified plants to a greenhouse until they could be identified. During this time, we removed any new seedlings, so that only seedlings recruited in the growth chamber were included in the final analysis. Fifty species 206 Table 1. Adult traits and germination responses to water depth and temperature of the 22 species with significant overall regressions. Species’ life span, adult elevational range, and biomass and stem density responses to water depth and temperature are summarized by the linear component (slope) of the regression model for each term. Blank cells indicate regression coefficients that were not significantly different from zero (p<0.05). Species included in the biomass analyses are indicated. Minimum, mean, and maximum of adult elevational range are shown relative to maximum flooding level (0 cm). Twenty-eight additional speciesa occurred in the seed-bank samples but did not have significant regressions. Mean stem-density and biomass values for all 50 species identified are presented in Seabloom (1997). Species Alisma triviale Pursh. Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. Atriplex patula L. Bidens cernua L. Calamagrostis spp.f Carex vulpinoidea Michx. Cyperus diandrus Torr. Cyperus odoratus L. Echinochloa muricata (P. Beauv) Fern. Epilobium ciliatum Raf. Hypochoeris radicata L. Leersia oryzoides (L.) Swartz. Lycopus spp.g Mentha arvensis L. Mentha spicata L. Mimulus ringens L. Phalaris arundinaceae L. Polygonum amphibium L. Scirpus validus Vahl. Solidago canadensis L. Typha × glauca Godr. Verbena hastata L. Biomass Life Span measured Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Perennial Annual Annual Annual Perennial Perennial Annual Annual Annual Perennial Annual Perennial Perennial Perennial Perennial Perennial Perennial Perennial Perennial Perennial Perennial Perennial Adult Elevation Min. Mean Max. 14.5 89.0 NA 38.5 24.5 60.5 NA NA −5.0 43.0 NA 82.0 74.5 38.0 NA −3.5 65.0 100.0 21.0 92.5 39.5 89.0 −21.2 19.1 NA 1.7 −12.1 13.8 NA NA −6.5 17.6 NA 9.4 7.7 −3.8 NA −11.5 −3.9 −20.3 −24.8 28.8 −38.6 39.1 −59.5 −30.5 NA −27.0 −51.5 −23.5 NA NA −8.0 1.0 NA −22.0 −48.0 −33.5 NA −19.5 −49.0 −92.5 −56.0 −14.5 −95.0 11.0 Stem Density Depthb Temp.c 0.068 −0.058 −0.020 −0.071 −0.107 0.023 −0.072 −0.067 0.022 −0.051 0.027 −0.088 0.018 −0.037 0.039 −0.105 −0.016 −0.069 0.024 −0.086 0.002 −0.089 0.014 −0.072 −0.061 −0.057 −0.025 0.022 0.031 −0.090 0.018 −0.088 Biomass Depthd Temp.e −0.025 0.011 0.016 −0.008 0.011 −0.019 0.012 0.014 0.077 0.264 a Agrostis gigantea Roth., Amaranthus rudis Sauer., Bromus inermis Leysser., Cirsium arvense (L.) Scop., Carex atherodes Sprengel., Carex stricta Lam., Carex vesicaria L., Conyza canadensis (L.) Cronq., Eleochoaris palustris L., Galium boreale L., Gratiola neglecta Torr., Juncus nodosus L., Juncus tenuis Willd., Lindernia dubia (L.) Pennell, Lobelia siphilitica L., Penthorum sedoides L., Phleum pratense L., Poa pratensis L., Polygonum hydropiperoides Michx., Rorippa palustris (L.) Besser., Rumex crispus L., Scirpus fluviatilis (Torr.) A.Gray, Scirpus validus Vahl., Sium suave Walter, Sparganium eurycarpum Englem., Spartina pectinata Link., Taraxacum officinale Weber., and Trifolium spp. −1/2 ·cm−1 b stems1/2 ·stems max c stems1/2 ·stems −1/2 ·◦ C max d mg1/2 ·mg −1/2 ·cm−1 max e mg1/2 ·mg −1/2 ·◦ C max f Includes C. canadensis (Michx.) P. Beauv and C. stricta (Timm) Koeler g Includes L. americanus Muhl. and L. asper Greene were identified in the samples (Table 1). Nomenclature follows Gleason & Cronquist (1991). Adult distribution data collection One of our hypotheses was that a species’ tolerance for flooding as an adult would be related to its germination response to water depth. In making this comparison we used data collected during the 1993 and 1994 field seasons on adult distributions along the water depth gradients in 27 prairie wetlands. During these years, we conducted topographic and vegetative surveys in 10 natural and 17 restored prairie pothole wetlands. The seed-bank samples were collected in a subset of these wetlands. We established a grid, oriented on a random bearing, in each wetland and adjusted the size of the grid to provide 4 to 5 points in each wetland vegetation zone (i.e., Stewart & Kantrud 1971). The number of samples per wetland ranged from 11 to 38 207 with a mean of 24. Grid size ranged from 15 to 30 m between nodes. The elevation of each point on the grid, relative to the highest attainable water level, was surveyed to the nearest cm. By definition, an elevation of 0 cm was the highest point that standing water could reach. In restored wetlands, artificial water-control structures, such as a standpipes, determined the maximum potential flooding elevation and was assigned an elevation of zero. In the natural wetlands, we used the highwater mark during the spring of 1993 as the zero elevation, a year of exceptional flooding throughout the midwestern United States. Our vegetation surveys followed a 2–3-year period of normal to high water levels. Because seedling recruitment occurs during low-water periods and the wetlands had been flooded longer than the time it takes for flood-induced mortality to occur, adult plants were probably not present at water depths greater than those in which they could survive over the long term. Active growth and sexual reproduction cease rapidly under flooded conditions (McKee et al. 1989; Squires and van der Valk 1992; van der Valk et al. 1994), and mortality usually occurs in less than three years (Millar 1973; van der Valk and Davis 1980; van der Valk et al. 1994). We recorded the percentage cover of each emergent species within 1 m2 around each grid node. Further detail on the vegetation surveys is provided by Seabloom (1997). Data analysis In our analyses, we measured the response of the seedling community and the constituent species to the water-depth and temperature treatments. In all analyses, we used a regression model composed of two treatment parameters (Water Depth and Temperature), interactions among the treatment parameters, and three experimental design terms (Chamber, Trial, and their interaction) (Table 2). Chamber represented the four growth chambers and Trial represented the four 6week trials. The interaction term Chamber × Trial was nested within Chamber, Trial and Temperature. Tests of the significance of temperature treatment used the Chamber × Trial as an error term, because the temperature treatment was applied to specific Chamber and Trial combinations. We analyzed the following univariate measures of community response: stem density, biomass, total species richness, richness of annual species, and richness of perennial species. We also used a combination of Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and regression analysis to determine the effects of water depth and temperature on the overall species composition of the seedling community. First we transformed the original biomass and stem density for all species using PCA. The goal in conducting these PCA’s was to produce several independent axes (PC axes) that described the majority of the variation in species composition in the seedling community. In the second step, we used regression analysis to determine how much of the seedling community variability described by each PC axis was accounted for by changes in water depth and temperature. Finally, we calculated the amount of the variation in total community composition accounted for by each independent variable. This allowed us to compare the regression results among all of the PC axes. All six species for which we had biomass data were included in the biomass PCA (Table 1). We had stem density data on 50 species, however only 22 were included in the stem density PCA (Table 1). These 22 species were common enough or consistent enough in their occurrence to produce a significant regression models as individual species. Seabloom (1997) presents stem density treatment means for all species identified in the experiment. We square-root transformed the stem density and biomass data to stabilize their variance. The PCA’s used correlation matrices, and we included PC axes in our analysis if they had eigenvalues greater than one (Manly 1986). In PCA, each sample in the original data set is given a set of scores that corresponds to its location along the PC axes. We regressed these scores onto the complete experimental model to determine the experimental factors that accounted for the greatest amount of change in the seedling community. One of the benefits of using PC scores in regressions is that the PC axes are orthogonal to each other. This is not necessarily true of the original variables (species). The independence of the PC axes allowed us to make comparisons among regressions by converting the results to the comparable units of total community variance. We did this in three steps. First, we calculated the proportion of the total variance in the original data accounted for by each PC axis, the eigenvalue in a PCA using a correlation matrix. A PCA that includes n species will produce n PC axes. We will designate the ith of these n axes as PCi and the proportion of the original variance accounted for by PCi as Vi . 208 Table 2. Regression models used for the analysis of the growth chamber seedling recruitment data. Stem density, biomass, and species richness were analyzed using the full model. Principal components were analyzed using the reduced model. The main-effects model was used to calculate linear temperature and depth regression coefficients for main effects that were significant in the full model. Source Degrees of freedom Full model Reduced model Description Main-effects model Chamber Trial Temperaturea Temperature2a Temperature3a Chamber × Trial b Depth Depth2 Temperature × Depth Temperature2 × Depth Temperature3 × Depth Temperature × Depth2 Temperature2 × Depth2 Temperature3 × Depth2 Error 3 3 1 1 1 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 24 3 3 3 3 6 2 2 24 42 Total 47 47 47 Among chamber effects Among trial effects Linear temperature effects Quadratic temperature effects Cubic temperature effects Temperature effects error term Linear depth effects Quadratic depth effects 6 a Temperature treatments were allocated as a Latin square within the four growth chambers and four trials. b Chamber × Trial is nested within Chamber, Trial, and Temperature. Secondly, we regressed PCi onto the reduced model in Table 2 and used the resulting ANOVA table to calculate the proportion of Vi that was attributable to each independent variable in the regression. The proportion of the variation in PCi accounted for by each independent variable, pij, can then be calculated from an ANOVA table as ! Sij2 pij = , (1) Si2 where j designates one of the independent variables in the regression of PCi scores onto the regression model (Table 2), Sij2 is the sum of squares for variable j , and Si2 is the total sum of squares in the regression (cf., Snedecor & Cochran 1989). Finally, by multiplying pij by Vi we calculated the amount of the total variation in abundance (stem density or biomass) of all the species in all of the samples that was accounted for by a given experimental factor (e.g., water depth and temperature). In addition to the community level analysis, we also examined the response of individual species to the water-depth and temperature treatments by regressing the stem density and biomass of each species onto the full regression model in Table 2. The original data exhibited nonstationarity of variance in relation to predicted values and regressions were run on three datasets: non-transformed, log10 transformed, and square root transformed. The square root transform was the most effective in achieving both normality and stationarity of residual variance. We tested the relationship between the seed germination responses to water depth and temperature and adult niche characters of mean water depth and life span (annual or perennial) by using the linear water-depth and temperature coefficients from regression models with no interaction or polynomial terms (Table 2). This slope provided a simple summary of the overall response of the species to the two experimental factors (water depth and temperature) with the other factor held constant (e.g., species germination was either increased, decreased, or unchanged by the water-depth treatments independent of the temperature). The linear terms we included in these models were all significant (p<0.05) in the regression using the full model (Table 2). In these linear regressions, the stem densities (stems•pot−1 ) of species were trans- 209 formed by dividing them by the mean number of stems in the water-depth and temperature combination with the highest stem density (stemsmax •pot−1 ). This transformation removed the effects of seed abundance in the sample, because the highest treatment mean was set equal to one for all species and we made among species comparisons using the relative density (stems•stems−1 max ). Results Community level analyses The PCA’s of stem density and biomass showed the strong effects of water depth and temperature on overall composition of the seedling community. There were six significant PC axes (eigenvalues greater than 1) included in the PCA of the stem density data (Table 3). These PC axes accounted for 70.4% of the total species variance for the original 22 species. The regressions of PCA scores had few significant quadratic or cubic water-depth or temperature terms. We present only the results of regressions using linear terms and linear interactions in the interest of clarity (Table 3). The first five PC axes had significant (p < 0.05) overall regression models. The first PC axis was most highly correlated with water depth and the second PC axis with temperature (as calculated in equation 1). The remaining PC axes were dominated by the experimental design terms Chamber, Trial, and Plot. There were two significant PC axes (eigenvalues greater than 1) in the PCA of the biomass measurements (Table 3). These PC axes accounted for 73.5% of the total species variance from the original six species. The first axis was most highly correlated with temperature, and the second axis with water depth (Table 3). Total species richness was negatively correlated with water depth and positively correlated with temperature (Figure 1c). Over the range of our experimental treatments, the water-depth response was greater than that of the temperature. As with total species richness, both annual and perennial species richness declined rapidly with increasing water depth. However, annuals and perennials had different responses to the temperature treatments. Annual species richness was positively correlated with temperature in the shallow treatments, while perennial species richness showed little response to temperature (Figures 1a, 1b, Table 4). Figure 1. Effect of water depth and temperature on mean (n = 4) annual, perennial, and total species richness in soil seed bank samples from a 6-week growth chamber experiment. Temperature was a main plot effect and depth was a split plot effect. Daytime soil temperatures were approximately 5 ◦ C higher than the air temperature, and nightime air and soil temperatures were identical. Separate standard errors are given for making comparisons among depth means (Depth SEM) and among temperature means (Temp SEM). Total stem density was positively correlated with temperature and negatively correlated with water depth (Figure 2, Table 4). Water depth and temperature only affected biomass in the in the two highest temperature treatments (15◦ night/25◦ day and 20◦ night/30◦ day). In these warm treatments, biomass was positively correlated with temperature and negatively worrelated with water depth (Figure 3). There were significant Trial effects in both the Stem Density PCA (Table 3) and the species richness, total stem density, and biomass regressions (Table 4). Total, annual, and perennial species richness declined over the course of the experiment due to increased stratification period (Figure 4). Although biomass and stem density varied among trials, there were no perceptible trends over the course of the entire experiment. 210 Table 3. Results of the stem density and biomass Principal Components Analyses (PCA) and the regression of the stem density and biomass principal components (PC) scores onto temperature and water depth experimental terms. Regression results are presented as the proportion of the total species variance accounted for by each term in the design. Empty cells denote terms that were not significantly different from zero at the 0.05 level. Total sums of squares and overall model significance are also shown. Twenty-two species were included in the stem density PCA, and six species were included in the biomass PCA. Eigenvalue Stem density PCA results proportion of species variance PC1 6.739 0.306 PC2 2.700 0.123 Biomass PCA results PC3 2.074 0.094 PC4 1.597 0.073 PC5 1.355 0.062 PC6 1.057 0.046 Stem Density Regression Results Water Depth Temperaturea Temperature × Water Depth Growth Chamber Trial Chamber × Trial interaction b Overall Model r2 Total Sums of Squares. Probability > F for Model PC1 0.164 0.013 PC2 0.005 0.052 PC3 0.018 PC1 2.932 0.489 PC2 1.475 0.246 Biomass Regression Results PC4 PC5 PC6 PC1 PC2 0.127 0.411 0.006 0.009 0.053 0.816 316.735 <0.001 0.02 0.032 0.015 0.746 126.881 <0.001 0.680 97.498 0.001 0.583 75.067 0.015 0.015 0.669 63.683 0.001 0.024 0.016 49.677 0.475 0.889 137.811 <0.001 0.794 69.306 <0.001 a Significance test uses Chamber × Trial as the error term. b Chamber × Trial is nested within Chamber, Trial, and Temperature. Table 4. The effects of water depth and soil temperature on recruitment of seedlings from the soil seedbank. Results of the regression of stem density and total, annual, and perennial species richness in growth chamber trials. Degrees of freedom (D.F.), sums of squares (S.S.), and the probability of a Type I error (α) are presented for each of the four regressions. Dependent variable Model r 2 Source D.F. Chamber 3 Trial 3 Temperaturea 1 Temperature2a 1 Temperature3a 1 Chamber × Trialb 6 Depth 1 Depth2 1 Temperature × depth 1 Temperature2 × depth 1 Temperature3 × depth 1 Temperature × depth2 1 Temperature2 × depth2 1 Temperature3 × depth2 1 Error 24 Total 47 Stem Density 0.95 S.S. 21 994.75 26 420.42 70 795.35 6 960.08 2 982.15 7 968.50 109 363.04 6 440.08 9 235.33 396.19 450.50 579.40 108.35 108.28 13 816.83 277 619.25 Biomass 0.96 S.S. α <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.062 0.185 0.067 <0.001 0.003 0.001 0.415 0.385 0.326 0.668 0.668 0.0001 α 5 597 763 0.077 8 558 188 0.020 350 204 757 0.000 9 079 929 0.015 6 698 672 0.027 4 720 012 0.397 4 652 873 0.018 33 793 304 <0.001 22 445 460 <0.001 86 990 0.732 2 852 115 0.058 209 607 0.595 3 221 593 0.045 3 347 437 0.042 17 328 504 472 797 204 Total Richness 0.88 S.S. α Annual Richness 0.79 S.S. α Perennial Richness 0.83 S.S. α 30.92 0.242 328.75 <0.001 20.42 0.026 16.33 0.039 0.00 1.000 14.17 0.908 605.78 <0.001 172.51 <0.001 14.89 0.155 0.78 0.740 1.30 0.668 3.42 0.489 0.01 0.966 0.98 0.710 165.67 1 375.92 0.0001 7.73 0.498 68.73 0.001 30.10 0.002 1.02 0.368 0.10 0.766 6.46 0.908 117.41 <0.001 30.47 0.005 9.56 0.095 1.06 0.568 1.06 0.568 2.75 0.360 0.23 0.789 0.30 0.762 75.83 352.81 0.0009 8.06 0.490 105.40 <0.001 0.94 0.423 9.19 0.036 0.10 0.784 7.63 0.876 189.81 <0.001 57.98 <0.001 0.59 0.674 0.02 0.936 0.01 0.952 0.04 0.917 0.35 0.744 0.20 0.808 77.67 457.98 0.0001 a Temperature treatments were allocated as a Latin square within the four growth chambers and four trials. The temperature error term is Chamber × Trial. b Chamber × Trial is nested within Chamber, Trial, and Temperature. 211 Species level analyses Figure 2. Effect of water depth and temperature on mean (n = 4) stem density (stems·pot−1 ) in soil seed bank samples from a six week growth chamber experiment. Temperature was a main plot effect and depth was a split plot effect. Separate standard errors are given for making comparisons among depth means (Depth SEM) and among temperature means (Temp SEM). Figure 3. Effect of water depth and temperature on mean (n = 4) biomass (g·pot−1 ) in soil seed bank samples from a six week growth chamber experiment. Temperature was a main plot effect and depth was a split plot effect. Separate standard errors are given for making comparisons among depth means (Depth SEM) and among temperature means (Temp SEM). Prior to analyzing the germination responses of individual species, we had to establish that the species were responding to the experimental treatments independently of one another. If there was little competitive effect on plant growth, then we could assume that the response to the experimental treatments by individual species was largely independent of coexisting species. We tested for potential competitive effects by using a regression of biomass on stem density. We regressed biomass onto the stem density of the six species included in the biomass measurement (Table 1). The six species included in the biomass measurements were very common and accounted for 82% of the total stems in the experiment. In addition, the remaining 18% of the stems were significantly correlated with the stem density of the six species for which we had biomass measurements (r 2 = 0.463, p < 0.001), and using the stem density of only the six species with biomass measurements accounted for 90.3% of the total variation in stem density. We used a log10(x) transform of the stem density and the biomass data to achieve stationarity of variance. We examined the residuals of the transformed data using Normal Probability plots, plots of residuals vs. predicted values, and the Shapiro–Wilk test and found that, after the transformation, the residuals were not significantly different from a normal distribution and the variance was stationary. The regression of biomass on stem density had a significant positive linear trend (Figure 5). The quadratic term in this model was not significant (p = 0.246), indicating there was no substantial decrease in the response of biomass to increasing stem density. Biomass (mg·pot−1), b, can be expressed in terms of stem density (stems·pot−1 ), s, using the expression: log10 b = 1.112 + 1.096 log10 s . (4) Because these data were log transformed, we could detect the presence of competitive effects on yield by testing if the slope of the regression was significantly different from 1.0. We were not able to reject the null hypothesis that the slope in Equation (4) equals 1.0 (p = 0.405), and Equation (4) reduces to Figure 4. Effect of stratification length on mean (n = 4) total, annual, and perennial species richness in soil seed bank samples from a six week growth chamber experiment. b = 12.9s (5) showing a proportional increase in biomass with increasing stem density and indicating the absence of detectable competitive effects on plant growth, a strong 212 Figure 5. The relationship between stem density and biomass production over a range of water depth and temperature conditions in four growth chamber experiments (r 2 = 0.43, p < 0.0012). The regression model predicts biomass (mg·pot−1 ), b, based on stem density (stems·pot−1 ), s, using the relationship: log10 b = 1.112 + 1.096log10 s. indication that there were no density effects on yield (Begon & Mortimer 1986). Stem density means of all 50 species in the experiment are presented by Seabloom (1997). Of the 22 species that were common or consistent enough in their occurrence to have a significant regression model in the individual species analyses, most were affected by the water-depth and temperature treatments (Table 1). Stem densities were significantly correlated to water depth in 95% of the species, and 86% of these species had lower stem densities as water depth increased. Fifty percent of the species with significant regressions responded to temperature. Of the species that responded to temperature, 82% had higher stem densities in the warmer treatments. All species, except Echinochloa muricata, had similar biomass and stem density responses to water depth (i.e., the signs of the slopes are the same in Table 1). Echinochloa muricata did not have a significant water-depth slope in the biomass regressions, while its stem density was positively correlated with water depth. Unlike the stem density response, no species had higher biomass in cooler temperatures (a negative temperature slope in Table 1). The hypothesis that annual species should have higher germination rates at high temperatures was tested by using a one-tailed t-test to determine if the mean slope of temperature response of seedlings was higher for annual species than perennial species. In other words, does the germination rate of annual species increase more rapidly with increasing temperature than the germination rate of perennial species? The average response of the seven annual species with significant regressions was to have higher stem counts with increasing temperature (0.012 stems1/2 •stemsmax −1/2 •◦ C−1 ) (Table 1). This slope was greater than the mean slope of the 15 perennial −1/2 species (0.005 stems1/2 ·stemsmax ·◦ C−1 ) in a onetailed t-test for samples with unequal variance (p = 0.005). The hypothesis that the distribution of adults along an elevational gradient was correlated with the slope of the water-depth response of the seedlings was tested using a one-tailed t-test to determine if there was a negative correlation between the mean elevation at which a species was found as an adult and the slope of the water-depth response. In other words, do fewer seeds of species found at high elevations in a wetland germinate as water depth increases, and do more seeds of species that are found at low elevations germinate as water depth increases? We had both adult distribution and seedling water-depth response data for 17 species (Table 1). There was a significant correlation between a species’ response to water depth as a seedling and the mean water depth of its distribution as an adult. The slope of the response in a species’ germination rate to −1/2 water depth (stems1/2 •stemsmax •cm), β, can be predicted by the mean of its distribution as an adult using the following relationship (r 2 = 0.498, p < 0.001): β = −15.3 − 289.2z , (6) where z is the mean elevation (cm) at which adults of the same species are found in the field vegetation surveys (Figure 6). Equation (6) shows that species found, on average, at high elevations will have lower germination rates as water depth increases, while species found at low elevations will have higher germination rates with increasing water depth. Discussion We found that water depth and temperature had strong effects on the composition of wetland seedling communities independent of competitive effects. Water depth and temperature also changed total stem density and biomass and had the potential to alter the intensity of competition among seedlings. We also found a correlation among regeneration and adult niches. 213 Figure 6. Correlation between mean adult elevation and species’ germination response to water depth (r 2 = 0.498, p = 0.001). Mean adult elevation is shown relative to the maximum attainable water depth (0 cm). Germination response to water depth, β, is calculated as the change in the square-root transformed relative stem density (stems•stems−1 max ) per cm change in water depth. Stemsmax is defined as the greatest number of stems in any experimental treatment. Beta is predicted for each species from the mean elevation of that species’ distribution as an adult, z, using the relationship: β = −0.052 − 1.722z. Species names are abbreviated as follows: Ali = Alisma triviale, Amb = Ambrosia artemisiifolia, Bid = Bidens cernua, Cal = Calamagrostis canadensis, Car = Carex vulpinoidea, Ech = Echinochloa muricata, Epi = Epilobium ciliatum, Lee = Leersia oryzoides, Lyc = Lycopus spp. , Men = Mentha arvensis, Mim = Mimulus ringens, Pha = Phalaris arundinaceae, Pol = Polygonum amphibium, Sci = Scirpus validus, Sol = Solidago canadensis, Typ = Typha glauca, and Ver = Verbena hastata. Increased levels of flooding decreased stem density, biomass, and species richness and sorted species according to their adult tolerance for flooding. As the water depth in which a seed germinated declined, the density and total biomass of its neighbors increased. The magnitude of the water-depth effect on biomass increased with increasing temperature. While our trials ended without any detectable effects of competition, the plants in high-density shallow-water treatments would have experienced a more competitive environment as they increased in size. The presence of neighboring plants can cause a significant reduction in plant growth and survival (Putwain & Harper 1970; Pinder 1975; Allen & Forman 1976; Fowler 1981; Silander & Antonovics 1982; Mithen et al. 1984; Silander & Pacala 1985; Goldberg 1987), because autotrophic plants have similar resource requirements (Aarssen 1983; Goldberg & Werner 1983; Ågren & Fagerström 1984; Shmida & Ellner 1984; Hubbell & Foster 1986; Goldberg 1987). Biomass and plant size can also account for differ- ences in the magnitude of neighbor effects among species (e.g., Gaudet & Keddy 1988). Species richness declined with increasing water depth leaving a reduced pool of species in deeper sites. Reduced species richness in submersed treatments has been found in other studies (van der Valk & Davis 1979; Pederson 1983). The species found as seedlings in flooded conditions were not a random subset of the total species pool. The species level analysis showed that, while most species had the highest seedling densities in shallow treatments, there was a guild of species that had consistently higher germination rates in the flooded treatments. This guild was composed of the same stress-tolerant species that grow in flooded conditions as adults, such as Scirpus validus, Typha × glauca, and Alisma triviale. The correspondence between the effects of water depth on adult and regeneration niches confirms the qualitative results in a similar study by Keddy & Ellis (1985) that had four species in common with our study. For two of these species, the germination responses along a water-depth gradient were concordant between these two studies. Bidens cernua, an annual, germinated at a lower rate with increasing water depth in both studies. Alisma triviale, an emergent perennial, showed increased germination rates with increasing water depth in both studies. Keddy & Ellis (1985) found Typha angustifolia and Scirpus validus to be unresponsive to a range of water depths from 5 cm below the soil surface to 10 cm above the soil surface, while our study showed that Typha × glauca and Scirpus validus increased germination rates with increasing water depth. Harris & Marshall (1963) and Smith & Kadlec (1962) also found that Typha sp. and Scirpus sp. germinated at higher rates in submersed conditions. Van der Valk & Davis (1978) found that Typha angustifolia and Scirpus validus germinated at lower rates in flooded conditions, however they used flooding treatments (10 cm) that were higher than those in our study (7 cm). The relationship between adult distributions and germination characteristics may create a positive feedback in which species germinate at their highest rates in areas where they are most common as adults. This feedback may speed the formation of coenoclines, by creating an incipient coenocline at the time of seedling emergence (van der Valk & Welling 1988). This positive feedback could be further accentuated in cases where seed abundance in the seed bank was correlated with adult distributions, because species would have 214 higher germination rates and higher densities of seeds at water depths where they most frequently occur as adults (van der Valk & Welling 1988). The effect of water depth on germination is an inherent character of individual species and will be maintained among sites. In contrast, the effect of seed abundance gradients on coenocline formation is likely to be site-specific. There are examples of wetlands that have patterns of seed density along water-depth gradients that correspond to adult community composition (e.g., Hogenbirk & Wein 1992) or to the distribution of specific species (e.g., Pederson 1983). At other sites, secondary dispersal by water creates a wellmixed seed bank (e.g., van der Valk & Davis 1976) or driftlines of seeds along the shore (e.g., Pederson & van der Valk 1984), patterns that are independent of adult distributions. We found that the primary effect of temperature was to increase total stem density and biomass and to increase the proportion of annual species in the seedling community. Annual species richness declined with decreasing temperature, while perennial richness showed a small, though detectable, increase. This result is consistent with our hypothesis that the high soil temperatures typical of exposed mudflats should trigger the germination of annual species, because these mudflats represent safe sites for the establishment of ruderal species. In wetlands, climatic cycles and topography cause water depth and soil temperature to vary spatially along an elevational gradient and temporally on a seasonal and annual basis. Soil temperature is also affected by the presence of litter and emergent vegetation. Because wetland species lack a shared germination response, this variability in environmental conditions will affect the distribution of species at the time of recruitment from the seed bank due to their different regeneration niches. Changes in water depth will sort species according to their adult water-depth tolerances, and temperature fluctuations will change the proportion of annuals appearing in the seedling community. The sensitivity of the seedling community to environmental conditions may explain the difficulty of relating the composition of the seed bank directly to seedling or adult community composition (Leck & Simpson 1995) as well as the inability to predict the distributions of adults plants along elevation gradients based solely on current environmental conditions (Wilson & Keddy 1985; de Swart et al. 1994). Given the importance of seedling recruitment in wetland systems (Salisbury 1971; van der Valk & Davis 1978; Keddy & Reznicek 1985; Poiani & Johnson 1989; Grillas et al. 1991), this variability in the initial pool of seedlings will likely be reflected in the composition of the adult coenocline. This will happen because the environment at the time of seedling recruitment will act as a filter that removes species from the pool available to colonize an area as adults. 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