2011 Census for
England and Wales
Glen Watson & Alistair Calder
2001 - OPERATIONAL LESSONS
• Need high quality address list
• Post back to a central point
• Track progress in the field
• Call centre capacity
• Recruitment & payroll
•
More intensive quality assurance
NEW CHALLENGES
• Recent migration
• Ageing: 25% more over 85s by 2011
• Complexity of family structures and
living arrangements
• Access controlled buildings
• Distrust & apathy lead to falling
response rates
2011 Census
Operations
ADDRESS CHECK
• Developing one integrated address list
• Amalgamating existing address sources
• ONS field checks addresses to capture
missing data
• Aiming for high level of accuracy
Special
& CEs
Address
Check
Post
Out
By
Hand
Questionnaire
Tracking
Post
Back
Internet
Back
Enforce
-ment
Follow
Up
Processing
CCS
DELIVERY & RETURN
2,000 Managers & Coordinators
25,000 Collectors
Plus hand delivery staff, special enumerators, enforcement officers
• Post out – new
• Online completion - new
Special
& CEs
Address
Check
Post
Out
By
Hand
Questionnaire
Tracking
Post
Back
Internet
Back
Enforce
-ment
Follow
Up
Processing
CCS
FOLLOW UP
•
•
•
•
Questionnaire tracking – new
Intensive & flexible follow up
Help & assistance
Enforcement
Special
& CEs
Address
Check
Post
Out
By
Hand
Questionnaire
Tracking
Post
Back
Internet
Back
Enforce
-ment
Follow
Up
Processing
CCS
2011 Address list
THE CENSUS FIELD OPERATION
Addresses
MATCH
& check
etc
ADDRESS
REGISTER
Enforce
-ment
Special
& CEs
Post
Out
Post
Back
Questionnaire
Tracking
By
Hand
Internet
Back
Follow
Up
CCS
Address Register for 2011
Aims
To create:
• best possible register of households from available
sources and fieldwork
• a register that key stakeholders, particularly LAs, are
confident in
• a register that is best value for money
> 99% complete <1% duplication
Result will be a better basis for Census but NOT a
list for general public use
So what’s the problem ?
just use the national address list !
LLPGs
x 348
LLPGs
Postcode
Address
File
PAF
National Land
& Property
Gazetteer
Council
Tax
Emerg.
Services
Address
Layer 2
AL2
NDR
NLPG
Utilities
TV
License
etc
So what’s the worst
that can happen ?
just send them all a form !
PAF
95%??
new
?
?
NLPG
CEs
So just get on and do it !
The Emerging Strategy
what’s the plan?
The Emerging Strategy
what’s the plan?
The Evidence Base
and evidence codes
Evidence base …..
Evidence
IA/LA
RM
ONS
VOA
3rd
?
NLPG
PAF
FIELD
CT ?
?
?
9 High Street
1L
1F
1R
1L
1L
1V
10 High Street
0C
1F
1R
0C
1L
1V
11 High Street
0S
1F
0X
1L
1L
0X
11a High Street
0X
1F
0X
0X
0X
0X
11b High Street
0X
1F
0X
0X
1D
0X
Flat 1/11 High Street
1L
0X
1R
1L
0X
1V
Flat 2/11 High Street
1L
0X
1R
1L
0X
1V
Three main streams of work
 Match and validate
• Match of national address files
• Royal Mail – PAF (& Ordnance Survey – AL2)
• Local Government Information House - NLPG
• (and VOA data)
• Unresolved address anomalies sent to
suppliers and Local Authorities (LAs) for
resolution
• ONS field checks 15% of E&W to capture
missing/invalid data
Three main streams of work
 Keep the data up-to-date !
• Constantly match in Change Only Updates
• PAF & NLPG
• Late intercept
• Critical importance of LLPG updates, classification
improvements etc
 Research, Data Cleaning & Other Sources
• Clerical processes Desktop comparison, GIS, Internet,
Aerial photography?
• Other Sources Vacant houses, electoral register, utility
meters, HMOs?
Targeting the Address Check
finding the suspect addresses
Where to check ??
Where to check ??
How to check ?? - EDs
Anglesey. Lancaster and Newham
Percentage of error (not picked up by COUs) captured in relation to the percentage of EDs address checked
ONS Fieldwork, Rehearsal 2009
100%
90%
80%
Percent error
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Percent EDs checked
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
How to check ?? - Postcodes
Anglesey. Lancaster and Newham
Percentage of error (not picked up by COUs) captured in relation to the percentage of Postcodes address checked
ONS Fieldwork, Rehearsal 2009
100%
90%
80%
Percent error
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Percent postcodes checked
70%
80%
90%
100%
Where to check ??
Electricity - Multiple meters
Where to check ??
Electoral Roll - Multiple names
Communal Establishments
a completely different problem
Beyond 2011
Beyond 2011
• Full Census – 2021, 2016?
• Short Census?
• Short Census with large survey?
• Address list, plus large survey?
• Household & population register?
CENSUS: traditional or register?
CONCLUSION
• Significant changes planned from
2001
• Household and Communal address
lists are crucial
• Aiming for high quality
• Looking promising, but difficult
• One off for 2011 Census, but lays
groundwork for beyond 2011