Bernard CHABOT
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Expert and Trainer
BCCONSULT, Garbejaire B107, 06560 VALBONNE, France
E-mail: bechabot@wanadoo.fr

• The analysis of PV production development in France must take into account some specific characteristics of the French electricity production and demand:
– Annual production beyond national demand (production around 120 % of demand).
– Very high share of nuclear power in the total production (75 % on average on 2010-2013) and in national demand (83 % on average on 2010-2013)
– Very large seasonal variations of demand and a high “thermal sensibility” created by the large scale use of electric space heating.
– Historical development of renewable electricity based mainly on hydropower and only since 2001 from onshore wind power.
• Even within this difficult context, PV development in France since mainly the 2006 PV FIT reform lead to 4632 MW grid connected at the end of 2013 (data from the IEA PVPS 2014 report and including French overseas departments, compared to 4390 MW registered by RTE at the end of 2013). And according also to the 2014 IEA PVPS report, France is among the 15 countries with more than 1 % of theoretical PV penetration rate from their installed power at the end of 2013 .
• PV electricity production from RTE provisional hourly data was around 3 TWh from January to June 2014. Extrapolated to the entire year, this would lead to around 6 TWh in 2014, compared to 4.45 TWh in 2013 (an increase by 34 %) and to 3.8 TWh in 2012.
• On the first 6 months of 2014, PV which represented 3.6 % of the 127 GW of total installed power in France at the end of May had a penetration rate of 1.24 % of the half year national electricity consumption of 240 TWh .
• PV production is variable along months, with around 80 % of the yearly production from March to October included.
• The average PV daily productivity (in kWh per kW and per day or “equivalent full load hours per year”) extrapolated to a complete 2014 year is around 1290 kWh/kW.year, compared to 1138 kWh/kW.year in 2013 (a year with a rather low solar irradiation) and 1212 in 2012.
• Daily productivity ranged from 1.28 kWh/kW.day in January (a capacity factor of 5.3 %) to 4.91 h/d in June (a capacity factor of 20.4 %)
• The equivalent mean power calculated on 24 hours ranged from 234 MW in January to 971 MW in June, compared with an annual average of 508 MW in 2013 and of 430 MW in 2012.
• The absolute maximum of PV power in the first half of 2014 was 3284 MW in May, compare to the maximum of 2997 MW in August 2013 and to 2489 MW in 2012, also in August.
• The maximum value of the national ratio (Pmax in the month / P installed at the start of the month) in the first half of 2014 was 70 % in
May, compared to the historic maximum value of 76 % in August 2013.
• Detailed monthly, daily and hourly analysis shows the advantages of combining PV and wind power production . In June, penetration rates were 3 % for wind, 2 % for PV and 5 % for [wind + PV], compared to May with 4.2 % for wind, 1.88 % for PV and 6 % for [wind + PV].
In winter, the higher production from wind compensates the lower production from solar PV.

• Analysis based mainly on data from the French TSO RTE web site:
– Production by 15 minutes periods: http://www.rte-france.com/fr/developpementdurable/eco2mix/telechargement-de-donnees
– Monthly synthesis : http://www.rte-france.com/fr/mediatheque/documents/l-electricite-en-france-donnees-etanalyses-16-fr/publications-mensuelles-17-fr
– RTE data on PV don’t integrate PV installed power and PV production in French overseas departments.
– Neither RTE nor the author are responsible for potential inaccuracies and consequences of use of those data and analysis.
• Electricity in France on 2010- 2013: Slides N° 4-12
• Electricity in France in 2014:
• Electricity in France in May 2014:
Slides N° 13-20
Slides N° 21-37
• Electricity in France in June 2014: Slides N° 38-54

4

600 000
550 000
500 000
450 000
400 000
350 000
300 000
250 000
200 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
0
BCCONSULT
Electricity in France (GWh/year). Data from ENTSO-E
Total RE Fossils Nuclear Demand Total Production
550 309
542 947 541 459
550 830
513 292
407 877
59 453
82 979
2010
479 238
421 118
51 504
70 325
2011
489 436
404 882
48 101
88 476
2012
495 144
403 703
44 973
102 154
2013
5

Monthly Electricity Consumption in France Since 2010: seasonal effect
Gross Total Consumption (GWh)
Source of data: RTE
35 000
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
60 000
55 000
50 000
45 000
40 000
BCCONSULT
6

PV development in France compared to other countries
Source: IEA PVPS “PVPS Report Snapshot of Global PV 1992-2013”, 2014
7

Theoretical PV penetration rate from installed power at the end of 2013
Source: IEA PVPS “PVPS Report Snapshot of Global PV 1992-2013”, 2014
8

1
BCCONSULT
2
GWh/month. Total 2013: 4,450 (+ 18 %); 2012: 3,777
2012 2013
3 4 5 6
Month
7 8 9 10 11 12 (p)
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
9

Total 2013: 4450 GWh. 2012: 3777. Source of data: RTE
2013 2012
15%
10%
5%
1
BCCONSULT
2 3 4 5 6 7
Month
8 9 10 11 12 (p)
0%
10

(Nhd, kWh/kW.day). 2013: 1,138 (- 6 %); 2012: 1,212 h/year
2012 2013
1
BCCONSULT
2 3 4 5 6 7
Month
8 9 10 11 12 (p)
0
2
1
6
5
4
3
11

(%). Source of data: RTE
2012 2013
1
BCCONSULT
2 3 4 5 6 7
Month
8 9 10 11 12 (p)
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
12

13

Installed Power and Electricity Production From January to June 2014
MW installed end of may 2014
Total: 127 GW. Total RE: 30.7 %. Source of data: RTE
Fossils; 24 960;
19,7%
Hydropower;
25 408; 20,0%
Electricity Production on 1-6/2014
Total all RE: 19.8 %. Source of data: RTE
Wind; 8 560;
3,6%
PV; 2 275; 1,0%
Other RE; 2
786; 1,2%
Hydropower;
33 353; 14,1%
Wind; 8 319;
6,6%
Solar PV; 4
631; 3,6%
Other RE; 557;
0,4%
Fossils; 11 887;
5,0%
BCCONSULT
Nuclear; 63
130; 49,7%
BCCONSULT
Nuclear; 177
813; 75,1%
14

Provisional results of PV production in France from January to June 2014
Data from RTE (without French overseas departments)
BCCONSULT - PV production in France in 2014. Source of data: RTE
Month Nd P (MW) start Production (GWh) Power Productivity of the month Total GWh/day Pm (MW) Pmax (MW) % Pmax/P Nhd (h/d) CF (%)
3
2
5
4
1
12 31
11 30
10 31
9 30
8
7
6
31
31
30
31
30
31
28
31
1-6/14 181
4 750
4 700
4 631
4 563
4 495
4 390
4 390
699,0
695,0
598,0
544,0
264,0
174,0
2 974
23,30
22,42
19,93
17,55
9,43
5,61
16,43
971
934
831
731
393
234
685
3 119
3 284
3 186
2 762
2 393
1 477
3 284
66%
70%
69%
61%
53%
34%
70%
4,91
1,28
3,53
20,4%
4,77 19,9%
4,30 17,9%
3,85 16,0%
2,10 8,7%
5,3%
14,7%
15

174
264
1
BCCONSULT
2
TITRE
Commentaire
PV Production in France in 2014
GWh/month. Total 1-6: 2974 GWh. Source of data: RTE
695 699
598
544
3 4 5 6
Month
7 8 9 10 11 12
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
16

234
393
1
BCCONSULT
2
TITRE
Commentaire
Average Daily PV Power in France in 2014
(MW). Source of data: RTE
731
3
831
4
934
971
5 6
Month
7 8 9 10 11 12
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
17

34%
53%
61%
69%
70%
66%
1
BCCONSULT
2
TITRE
Commentaire
Monthly PV Ratio (Pmax/P) in France in 2014
(%). Source of data: RTE
3 4 5 6 7
Month
8 9 10 11 12
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
18

1,28
2,10
1
BCCONSULT
2
TITRE
Commentaire
PV Productivity Nhd in France in 2014
(kWh/kW.day). Source of data: RTE
3,85
4,30
4,77
4,91
3 4 5 6 7
Month
8
1
9 10 11 12
0
4
3
2
6
5
19

TITRE
Commentaire
PV Capacity Factor CF in France in 2014 (%)
Source of data: RTE
5,3%
8,7%
16,0%
17,9%
19,9%
20,4%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
1
BCCONSULT
2 3 4 5 6 7
Month
8 9 10 11 12
0%
20

21

Total: 41.174 TWh, 120.6 % of demand. Source of data: RTE
Fossils; 1,149;
2,8%
Hydropower;
5,936; 14,4%
Wind; 1,416;
3,4%
PV; 0,638; 1,5%
Other RE; 0,444;
1,1%
Nuclear; 31,590;
76,7%
Bernard CHABOT, BCCONSULT
22

1 400
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
0
Month: 34.15 TWh. Mini: 0.947 TWh/j. Maxi: 1.232 TWh/j
5 10 15 20 25 30
23

45 000
40 000
35 000
30 000
0
60 000
Power Demand in 5/2014: mean 45897 MW
Maxi: 58060 MW. Mini: 33571 MW. Data from RTE
Maximum Average Minimum
55 000
50 000
5 10 15 20 25 30
24

60 000
55 000
50 000
45 000
40 000
35 000
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
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5 000
0
-5 000
-10 000
-15 000
Bernard CHABOT, BCCONSULT
Nuclear, Fossils, [Hydro + RE], exchanges and demand in 5/2014 (MW). Data from RTE
Nuclear Fossils All RE Demand Exchanges
15 minutes Steps
25

35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
Bernard CHABOT - BCCONSULT
% of Production in 5/2014: nuclear, fossils, [Wind + PV], [Hydro + Other RE]. Data from RTE
Nuclear Fossils [Hydro + Other RE] [Wind + PV]
15 minutes Steps
26

Demand and production from nuclear, fossils and all RE in 5/2014 (MW)
Nuclear Fossils All RE Demand
70 000
65 000
60 000
55 000
50 000
45 000
40 000
35 000
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
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Bernard CHABOT - BCCONSULT
15 minutes Steps
27

Solar PV in France in 5/2014 (MW)
Average: 858 MW. Maxi 3284 MW. Total production: 638 GWh (20,58 GWh/d)
3 500
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
Bernard CHABOT , BCCONSULT 15 minutes Steps
28

% Of Demand From solar PV in France in 5/2014 (MW)
Average: 1.8 %. Max: 7.8 %. Total PV: 638 GWh
8,5%
8,0%
7,5%
7,0%
6,5%
6,0%
5,5%
5,0%
4,5%
4,0%
3,5%
3,0%
2,5%
2,0%
1,5%
1,0%
0,5%
0,0%
Bernard CHABOT, BCCONSULT 15 minutes Steps
29

% Demand from Wind, PV, [Wind+PV] in France in 5/2014
Average: wind 4.2 %; PV: 1.8 %; [Wind + PV]: 6.0 %. Data from RTE
21%
20%
19%
18%
17%
16%
15%
14%
13%
12%
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Bernard CHABOT, BCCONSULT 15 minutes Steps
30

Average: 20,58 GWh/day ; Total : 638 GWh. Data from RTE
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
30
28
26
2
0
6
4
10
8
31

% Of Daily Demand From PV in 5/2014
Monthly average: 1.87 %. Maxi : 7.78 %
5,0
4,5
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
8,5
8,0
7,5
7,0
6,5
6,0
5,5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
32

3 600
3 400
3 200
3 000
2 800
2 600
2 400
2 200
2 000
1 800
1 600
1 400
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
0
Mean : 858 MW; Maxi: 3284 MW. Data from RTE
5 10 15 20 25 30
33

Wind and PV Production in 5/2014. Total 2054 GWh
Wind: 45.68 GWh/d (69%). PV: 20.58 GWh/d (31 %). Total: 66.3 GWh/d
PV Wind Wind+PV
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
0
40
20
34
140
80
60
120
100

7 000
Maximum Daily PV Production: May 16, 2014
MW Wind and PV, France on May 16, 2014
Total Wind: 57.8 GWh; mean 2410 MW; 67 % [Wind+PV]
Total PV: 28,2 GWh; mean 1175 MW; 33 % [Wind+PV]
Total Wind + PV: 86 GWh; 7,19 % of daily consumption
Wind PV [Wind + PV]
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 00:00
BCCONSULT
Hour
35

6 000
Minimum Daily PV Production: May 2, 2014
MW Wind and PV, France on May 2, 2014
Total Wind: 55.6 GWh; mean 2316 MW; 80 % [Wind+PV]
Total PV: 14.2 GWh; mean 591 MW; 20 % [Wind+PV]
Total Wind + PV: 69.7 GWh; 6.02 % of daily consumption
Wind PV [Wind + PV]
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 00:00
BCCONSULT
Hour
36

Maximum Daily [Wind + PV] Production: May 11, 2014
MW Wind and PV, France on May 11, 2014
Total Wind: 113.6 GWh; mean 4732 MW; 86 % [Wind+PV]
Total PV: 18 GWh; mean 750 MW; 14 % [Wind+PV]
Total Wind + PV: 131.6 GWh; 13.57 % of daily consumption
Wind PV [Wind + PV]
9 000
8 000
7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 00:00
BCCONSULT
Hour
37

38

39

1 400
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
0
Mois: 32.24 TWh. Mini: 0.902 TWh/j. Maxi: 1.155 TWh/j
5 10 15 20 25 30
40

45 000
40 000
35 000
30 000
0
60 000
Power Demand in 6/2014: mean 44781 MW
Max: 55875MW. Min: 30881 MW
Maximum Mean Minimum
55 000
50 000
5 10 15 20 25 30
41

65 000
60 000
55 000
50 000
45 000
40 000
35 000
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
-5 000
-10 000
-15 000
BCCONSULT
Nuclear, fossils, [Hydro + RE], exchanges and demand in 6/2014 (MW)
Nuclear Fossil All RE Demand Exchange
15 minutes Steps
42

100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
BCCONSULT
% Of production in 6/2014: nuclear, fossils, [Wind + PV], [hydro + other RE]
Nuclear Fossils [Hydro + Other RE] [Wind + PV]
15 minutes Steps
43

70 000
65 000
60 000
55 000
50 000
45 000
40 000
35 000
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
BCCONSULT
Demand and production from Nuclear, fossils and all RE in 6/2014 (MW)
Nuclear Fossils All RE Demand
15 minutes Steps
44

Solar PV in France in 6/2014 (MW)
Mean: 971 MW. Maxi: 3119 MW. Total production: 699 GWh (23.31 GWh/d)
2 000
1 500
1 000
3 500
3 000
2 500
500
0
Bernard CHABOT , BCCONSULT 15 minutes Steps
45

8,5%
8,0%
7,5%
7,0%
6,5%
6,0%
5,5%
5,0%
4,5%
4,0%
3,5%
3,0%
2,5%
2,0%
1,5%
1,0%
0,5%
0,0%
Bernard CHABOT, BCCONSULT
% Of demand from PV in France in 6/2014 (MW)
Mean: 2.17 %. Max: 7.71 %. Total PV: 699 GWh. Source of data: RTE
15 minutes Steps
46

% Of demand from Wind, PV and [Wind + PV] in 6/2014
Average: wind 3.0 %; PV: 2.0 %; [Wind+PV]: 5.0 %
15%
14%
13%
12%
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Bernard CHABOT, BCCONSULT 15 minutes Steps
47

Mean: 23.31 GWh/day; Total : x GWh
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
48

2 000
1 800
1 600
1 400
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
3 400
3 200
3 000
2 800
2 600
2 400
2 200
0
Mean: 971 MW; Maxi: 3119 MW
5 10 15 20 25 30
49

% Daily Demand From PV in 6/14
Monthly Average: 2.17 %. Maxi : 7.71 %
8,5
8,0
7,5
7,0
6,5
6,0
5,5
5,0
4,5
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
50

Wind and PV Production in 6/2014 (total 1619 GWh)
Wind: 30.68 GWh/d (57 %). PV: 23.31 GWh/d (43 %). Total: 54 GWh/d
PV Wind Wind+PV
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
51

Maximum Daily PV Production: June 19/2014
MW Wind and PV on June 19, 2014
Total Wind: 20.3 GWh; mean 845 MW; 43 % [Wind+PV]
Total PV: 27.3 GWh; mean 1136 MW; 57 % [Wind+PV]
Total Wind+ PV: 47.5 GWh; 4.07 % daily demand
Wind PV [Wind+PV]
4 000
3 500
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 00:00
BCCONSULT
Hour
52

5 000
4 000
3 000
6 000
Minimum Daily PV Production: June 4, 2014
MW Wind and PV on June 4, 2014
Total Wind: 51.6 GWh; mean 2149 MW; 77 % [Wind+PV]
Total PV: 15.7 GWh; mean 655 MW; 23 % [Wind+PV]
Total Wind+ PV: 67.3 GWh; 5.59 % daily demand
PV Wind + PV
2 000
1 000
0
00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 00:00
BCCONSULT
Hour
53

Maximum [WIND + PV] production; June 15, 2014
MW Wind and PV on June 15, 2014
Total Wind: 66.9 GWh; mean 2786 MW; 76 % [Wind+PV]
Total PV: 20.9 GWh; mean 870 MW; 24 % [Wind+PV]
Total Wind+ PV: 87.7 GWh; 9.69 % daily demand
PV Wind + PV
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 00:00
BCCONSULT
Hour
54