CONFIDENTIAL
(THIS D O C U M E N T
IS T H E P R O P E R T Y
C. P . (64)
OF HER BRITANNIC MAJESTY'S
GOVERNMENT)
COPYNO.
21
22nd J a n u a r y ,
.
58
1964
CABINET
THE SCHOOL.LEAVING
Memoranduta
i
AGS
by t h e C h i e f S e c r e t a r y t o t h e
and Paymaster-General
and the Minister
of
We were asked to p r e p a r e a m e m o r a n d u m
Treasury
Education
describing the
t i o n s of a d e c i s i o n t o r a i s e t h e s c h o o l l e a v i n g a g e t o 1 6 f r o m
1971 and 1972
2.
implica­
1969,
Definitions.
In t h i s m e m o r a n d u m r e f e r e n c e s
to raising the
in a p a r t i c u l a r y e a r m e a n that that is the y e a r in which the f i r s t
accepted will be actually starting their extra y e a r at school.
example,
1 9 6 9 - 7 0 s o that (in E n g l a n d a n d W a l e s ) the
pupils affected will have their extra year f r o m
For
effect
first
1970 to
Easter
The need for additional a c c o m m o d a t i o n will not, however,
until September, since the
11-year
schools only once a year,
in
3,
Easter
old age g r o u p is a d m i t t e d to
arise
secondary
September.
All figures include Scotland and are at March,
Current Expenditure.
age
pupils
r a i s i n g the age in 1970 m e a n s bringing the change into
in the school y e a r
1971.
1970,
respectively,
1963 p r i c e s .
A s e x p l a i n e d in t h e A n n e x to C . P , (64)
1,
the t h e o r e t i c a l additional c u r r e n t educational expenditure is e s t i m a t e d
£65 million per annum.
teachers'
salaries,
This however includes
£33. 5 million
which would be incurred in the years under
sideration only to the extent that additional t e a c h e r s w e r e
con­
somehow
b r o u g h t i n t o t h e s c h o o l s i n t h o s e y e a r s a s a r e s u l t of r a i s i n g t h e
The actual i n c r e a s e in c u r r e n t educational expenditure,
financial y e a r in which the age is r a i s e d ,
a minimum
These figures
Capital Sx^endjtnrgj
A s e x p l a i n e d i n p a r a g r a p h ( b ) of t h e
of £ 1 1 5 m i l l i o n i s r e q u i r e d f o r
Including sites, fees and equipment the total
£150 million.
Annex
building
has not
been
Provision for increases in school population
of p o p u l a t i o n c a n n o t b e a v o i d e d .
about two-thirds
not
approaches
T h e s i z e of s c h o o l b u i l d i n g p r o g r a m m e s
settled beyond 1967.
for m o v e m e n t s
are
put
chosen,
to C. P . (64) 1 capital e x p e n d i t u r e
v/ork.
in
and national insurance) a r e
at between £30 million and £35 million a year.
5.
between
Non-educational costs (due to the
effect on i n c o m e tax, family allowances
affected by the date
age.
starting in the
would therefore fall
of £ 3 1 , 5 m i l l i o n a n d a m a x i m u m of £ 6 5 m i l l i o n ;
C , P . (64) 1 it w a s p u t a t £ 4 5 m i l l i o n .
at
for
of t h e b u i l d i n g p r o g r a m m e s f o r
one-third will be for i m p r o v e m e n t s .
- 1 ­
This will take
1965-67;
the
T h e v i e w of t h e M i n i s t e r
and
up
remaining
of
E d u c a t i o n i s t h a t a c o n t i n u a t i o n of a t l e a s t t h e p r e s e n t r a t e of s c h o o l
i m p r o v e m e n t i s h i g h l y d e s i r a b l e , b u t t h a t if, a n d o n l y if, t h e s c h o o l
leaving age is to be r a i s e d it would be defensible to m a k e a substantial
r e d u c t i o n t o h e l p a c c o m m o d a t e t h e c a p i t a l c o s t of r a i s i n g t h e a g e .
The Chief S e c r e t a r y ' s view is that either the " i m p r o v e m e n t s " a r e
n e c e s s a r y , in which case it would not be possible to forego t h e m in
o r d e r to a c c o m m o d a t e raising the school age, or they a r e not
n e c e s s a r y , in which c a s e it is not to be a s s u m e d that it would in a n y
event have been possible to include t h e m in building p r o g r a m m e s at
a t i m e when p r e s s u r e on r e s o u r c e s will be v e r y highj and that t h e r e ­
fore it is not possible to claim the saving f r o m not doing this as a r e a l
s e t - o f f a g a i n s t t h e c o s t of r a i s i n g t h e s c h o o l l e a v i n g a g e .
In h i s v i e w
the extra capital costs in the t h r e e y e a r s p r e c e d i n g raising the age
m u s t b e r e g a r d e d a s of t h e o r d e r o f £ 1 5 0 m i l l i o n .
6,
O n t h e M i n i s t e r of E d u c a t i o n ' s a s s u m p t i o n t h a t p a r t of t h e
capital cost can be m e t by deferring i m p r o v e m e n t s to schools,
a d d i t i o n a l b u i l d i n g s t a r t s of £ 2 0 m i l l i o n , £ 2 0 m i l l i o n a n d £ 1 0 m i l l i o n ,
beginning two clear y e a r s before the school leaving age was raised,
would be required.
The resulting capital expenditure (including
building w o r k , s i t e s , fees and equipment) would be p h a s e d a s in the
table below: Y e a r of
£
million
raising
fee-age
1969
1970
1971
1972
1967-68
19SC-S9
1969-70
8
19
8
37
19
8
1970-71
37
19
8
1971-72
37
19
1972-73
37
Total
64
64
64
64
7.
O n t h e C h i e f S e c r e t a r y ' s v i e w t h a t p r e s s u r e of o t h e r c l a i m s o n
r e s o u r c e s at the t i m e might be such that it would in any event have b e e n
n e c e s s a r y to defer such school i m p r o v e m e n t s , the additional capital
c o s t of r a i s i n g t h e s c h o o l l e a v i n g a g e w o u l d b e n o t £ 6 4 m i l l i o n b u t a b o u t
£150 million, and the figures in the table above would r e a d as follows:Y e a r of
raising
the"age
1969
1970
1971
1972
£
1967-68
19
1968-69
44
19
million
1969-70
87
44
19
1970-71
87
44
19
1971-72
87
44
1972-73
87
Total
150
150
150
150
8.
GrpwtK-pf o t h e r public e x p e n d i t u r e during the p e r i o d .
The
m e m o r a n d u m C P . ( 6 4 ) 1 9 b y t h e C h a n c e l l o r of t h e E x c h e q u e r a n d t h e
Chief S e c r e t a r y to the T r e a s u r y shows that expenditure on all the
m a j o r p r o g r a m m e s is likely to be rising rapidly in the late 1960s.
In
p a r t i c u l a r t h e r e w i l l b e p r e s s u r e a s a r e s u l t of t h e B u c h a n a n R e p o r t
and regional redevelopment to i n c r e a s e investment in roads even m o r e
-2­
rapidly m a n at p r e s e n t ; we a r e a l r e a d y c o m m i t t e d to an u l t i m a t e
t o t a l of 4 0 0 , 0 0 0 h o u s e s a n n u a l l y , a n d t h e M i n i s t e r of H o u s i n g a n d
Local Government has proposed that this target shall be i n c r e a s e d
to 500, 000.
Defence expenditure is likely to increase rapidly in the
l a t e 1 9 6 0 s w h e n t h e b u l k of t h e c o s t o f t h e n e w a i r c r a f t c a r r i e r w i l l
f a l l t o b e m e t a n d w e m a y b e e x p e c t e d t o p r o v i d e a n e w g e n e r a t i o n of
aircraft.
Expenditure on the Concord will also be at a p e a k at this
time.
I n t h e f i e l d of H e a l t h t h e r e i s a l r e a d y g r e a t p r e s s u r e o n t h e
a n n u a l g r o w t h r a t e of 2 j p e r c e n t i n c u r r e n t e x p e n d i t u r e a n d t h e
c a p i t a l p r o g r a m m e s w i l l n o t b e g i n t o f l a t t e n off t t n t i l
1970 o r l a t e r .
T h e b u l k of t h e c o s t of t h e C h a n n e l T u n n e l , i f i t w e r e a p p r o v e d , w o u l d
be likely to fall in the two y e a r s 1968-70.
9.
In the Chief S e c r e t a r y ' s v i e w it is c l e a r f r o m the a b o v e t h a t
the p r e s s u r e on p u b l i c e x p e n d i t u r e w i l l be s u c h t h a t it w i l l b e
i m p o s s i b l e to find r o o m in any event for the additional e x p e n d i t u r e
involved in raising the school leaving age, unless at the s a m e t i m e
c u t s a r e d e c i d e d o n i n o t h e r p r o p o s a l s ; a n d t h a t i n v i e w of t h e
difficulty involved in m a k i n g cuts that will take s u b s t a n t i a l effect
before 1972, the difficulty in r a i s i n g the age would be a c c e n t u a t e d
e v e n f u r t h e r b y t h e c h o i c e of a n y e a r l i e r d a t e .
J.A.
22nd J a n u a r y ,
1964
E-C