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&&
52
0
0&
&/
%
Operating Revenue
Tolls
Special Toll Permits
Concessions
Other
Total Operating Revenues*
Non-operating Revenues
State Fuel Tax Allocation**
$ 189,701,000
$
2,750,000
$ 13,793,000
$
1,184,000
$ 207,428,000
$
-
Investment Earnings***
Total Non-operating Revenue
Total Revenue
$
$
$ 207,428,000
Operating Expenses****
Administration And Insurance
Maintenance Of Roadway And Structures
Services And Toll Operations
Traffic Control, Safety, Patrol & Communications
Major Repairs And Replacements
$
$
$
$
$
7,982,000
30,957,000
46,449,000
12,902,000
(277,000)
$
$
98,013,000
Depreciation Expense*****
Total Operating Expenses
Non-operating Expenses:
Interest Expense******
$
Loss On Disposals / Write-Offs Of Capital Assets*******
Total Non-operating Expenses
Total Expenses
$
$
$
98,013,000
Total Profit/Loss
$ 109,415,000
Notes:
* This analysis assumes the vendor would derive revenues from the same sources as
the Turnpike Commission.
**It is not clear whether the vendor, a private firm, would be eligible to receive fuel
tax proceeds.
***Assumes the vendor would not benefit from the Turnpike Commission's
Investments.
This may increase in the future, but investment earning would be restricted by
operating needs.
****Assumes many of the same expenses as the Turnpike Commission, with noted
exceptions.
***** No depreciation since the state retains ownership, but may have leasehold
improvements in the future.
****** It is unclear who would pay the $732,898,000 in outstanding debt.
This assumes the Turnpike Commission would pay debt services, perhaps from
proceeds of lease?
*******Vendor doesn't own the capital assets, so no write off.
+This shows the expected return over the life of the lease would be a less than
invested.
Typically, government intervention into the market is justified when the market won't
bear an activity.
The present value is the total amount that a series of future payments is worth now.
Source: Ohio Turnpike Commission "2004 Annual Report"
6
&&
5)
A
&/ %
I
A&
Year
Scenario 1
Annual Revenue
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
Bond Payment
Scenario 2
Net Annual
Revenues
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
55,389,000
55,378,000
55,342,000
55,313,000
55,313,000
55,313,000
55,313,000
55,313,000
55,370,200
55,370,200
55,370,200
55,370,200
55,370,200
55,124,800
55,124,800
55,124,800
55,124,800
55,124,800
28,719,600
28,719,600
28,719,600
28,719,600
28,719,600
6,429,500
6,429,500
-
54,026,000
54,037,000
54,073,000
54,102,000
54,102,000
54,102,000
54,102,000
54,102,000
54,044,800
54,044,800
54,044,800
54,044,800
54,044,800
54,290,200
54,290,200
54,290,200
54,290,200
54,290,200
80,695,400
80,695,400
80,695,400
80,695,400
80,695,400
102,985,500
102,985,500
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
7
44L
I
Year
Scenario 1
Annual Stream
Bond Payment
Scenario 2
Net Annual
Revenues
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2105
$ 109,415,000
$ 5,361,335,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
-
$
$1,151,606,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
109,415,000
$ 109,415,000
$ 4,209,729,000
&&
A
5=
I
&/ %
44L
;
Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
Scenario 3
Annual Revenues
$
109,415,000
$
112,697,450
$
116,078,374
$
119,560,725
$
123,147,546
$
126,841,973
$
130,647,232
$
134,566,649
$
138,603,648
$
142,761,758
$
147,044,611
$
151,455,949
$
155,999,627
$
160,679,616
$
165,500,005
$
170,465,005
$
175,578,955
$
180,846,324
$
186,271,713
$
191,859,865
$
197,615,661
$
203,544,131
$
209,650,454
$
215,939,968
$
222,418,167
$
229,090,712
$
235,963,434
$
243,042,337
$
250,333,607
$
257,843,615
$
265,578,923
$
273,546,291
$
281,752,680
$
290,205,260
$
298,911,418
$
307,878,760
$
317,115,123
$
326,628,577
$
336,427,434
$
346,520,257
$
356,915,865
$
367,623,341
$
378,652,041
$
390,011,602
$
401,711,950
$
413,763,309
$
426,176,208
$
438,961,495
$
452,130,339
Year
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
8
Scenario 3
Annual Revenues
$
465,694,250
$
479,665,077
$
494,055,029
$
508,876,680
$
524,142,981
$
539,867,270
$
556,063,288
$
572,745,187
$
589,927,542
$
607,625,369
$
625,854,130
$
644,629,754
$
663,968,646
$
683,887,706
$
704,404,337
$
725,536,467
$
747,302,561
$
769,721,638
$
792,813,287
$
816,597,685
$
841,095,616
$
866,328,485
$
892,318,339
$
919,087,889
$
946,660,526
$
975,060,342
$ 1,004,312,152
$ 1,034,441,516
$ 1,065,474,762
$ 1,097,439,005
$ 1,130,362,175
$ 1,164,273,040
$ 1,199,201,231
$ 1,235,177,268
$ 1,272,232,586
$ 1,310,399,564
$ 1,349,711,551
$ 1,390,202,897
$ 1,431,908,984
$ 1,474,866,254
$ 1,519,112,242
$ 1,564,685,609
$ 1,611,626,177
$ 1,659,974,962
$ 1,709,774,211
$ 1,761,067,438
$ 1,813,899,461
$ 1,868,316,445
$ 1,924,365,938
$ 1,982,096,916
$ 64,404,827,449
I
=N
&&
%
"
51
44L
I
Scenario 1:
Bonds paid by Turnpike Commission from lease proceeds.
Net Present Value:
A) Discount rate of 3.0% over 99 years returns $3,451,701,054
B) Discount rate of 5.0% over 99 years returns $2,170,827,049
Scenario 2:
Bonds paid by vendor and revenue stream are reduced by debt service.
Net Present Value
A) Discount rate of 3.0% over 99 years returns $2,607,679,397.
B) Discount rate of 5.0% over 99 years returns $1,468,790,616.
Scenario 3:
State pays off bonds and vendor increases tolls 3% each year.
Net Present Value
A) Discount rate of 3.0% over 99 years returns $10,516,587,379.
B) Discount rate of 5.0% over 99 years returns $$4,655,686,384.
Note: Returns do not include inflation premiums.
&&
A
Lease Proceeds
5*
0
;
Debt Repayment
I
Net Return
3% Return
5% Return
Proposed Lease Value
$ 4,600,000,000
$ 1,151,606,000
$3,448,394,000
$ 103,451,820
$ 172,419,700
$ 6,000,000,000
$4,848,394,000
$ 145,451,820
$ 242,419,700
$ 1,151,606,000
Estimated Lease Value less Debt Repayment
$ 3,451,701,054
$ 1,151,606,000
$ 2,300,095,054
$ 69,002,852
$ 115,004,753
$ 2,170,827,049
$ 1,151,606,000
$ 1,019,221,049
$ 30,576,631
$ 50,961,052
Estimated Lease Value, Vendor Repays Outstanding Debt
$ 2,607,679,397
NA
NA
$ 78,230,382
$ 130,383,970
$ 1,468,790,616
$ 44,063,718
$ 73,439,531
NA
NA
9
&&
5,
&/ I
"
0
Revenue (3%)
$ 103,451,820
$ 145,451,820
$ 69,002,852
$ 30,576,631
$ 78,230,382
CORF
Projects
34
48
23
10
26
15
A
<
D
Revenue (5%)
>
CORF
Projects
$ 172,419,700
$ 242,419,700
57
81
$ 115,004,753
38
$ 50,961,052
17
$ 130,383,970
43
$ 44,063,718
$ 73,439,531
24
Note: The typical payment from the CORF in 2005 was $3
million.
10
& L