Document 11185044

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C00O-2428-2
INTERIM FINAL REPORT SUBMITTED TO THE ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION
September 4, 1974
by
THE ENERGY LABORATORY
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
77 Massachusetts Avenue
02139
Cambridge, Massachusetts
M. Ruane, J. Gruhl, F. Schweppe, B. Green(ERT) and B. Egan(ERT)
AEC Report COO-2428-2
"THE DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION
OF A
DEMONSTRATION
SUPPLEMENTARY CONTROL SYSTEM"
February
1, 1974-July
MIT-EL-74-009
Prepared under the support of
United States Atomic Energy Commission
Contract No. AT(11-1)-2428
Principal Investigator
ill.
L'
i
*1
Fred C. Schweppe
Associate Professor
31, 1974
Interim Final Report
on
Tile Design and Implementation
Supplementary
AEC Document
of a Demonstration
Control System
No. C00-2428-2
Abstract
This report documents the progress made during the six-month Phase
I portion of a project to design and implement a Supplementary Control
System on four coal-burning power plants in western Pennsylvania.
Pre-
liminary data collection and analysis, air quality modeling, meteorological forecasting, control strategy development and program definition are
discussed.
Coordination of Phases I and II is explained.
Appendices in-
clude data on meteorology, the AIRNAP air quality monitoring system and
plant and system parametersaffecting control strategy design.
Interim Final Report
on
The Design and Implementation
Supplementary
of a Demonstration
Control
System
COO-2428-2
INDEX
Abstract
Index
............................................
...............................................
1.0O
Introduction
2.0
Summary
3.0
Task
ii
........................................
.............................
Areas
1
................
.........................................
7
3.1 Preliminary Data Collection and Analysis .......
3.2
Air
Quality
Model Adaptation
and Development
3.3
Forecast Model Adaptation
3.4
Control Logic Adaptation and Development
3.5
Operational Program Definition
7
....
and Development .......
4.0
Coordination
of Phases I and II
5.0
References
.........................................
4
.......
.................
....................
24
39
41
66
77
80
Appendi ces
Jcleteorological/Air Quality Data ......................
AIRU.AP Description
.................................
86
126
Control Parameters ..................................
132
State Estimation LAPPESTest
155
........................
ii
1.0
INTRODUCTION
The Interim Final Report is submitted as one of the requirements
for completion of contract AT(11-1)-2428.
It covers the period from
February 1, 1974 to July 31, 1974, and is a comprehensive report of
the progress on tasks 1 through 5 of the original proposal, "The Design
and Implementation of a Demonstration Supplementary Control System."
The work described in this report is continuing and the project final
report will be available August 1, 1975.
A Supplementary Control System (SCS), as an environmental control
technology that takes advantage of the atmosphere as a time-varying resource, provides both environmental and economic benefit.
It provides
an imnediate solution to the ambient air quality threats posed by the
shortages and high costs of low sulfur fuels and the present unavailability of reliable, economic and environmentally sound flue gas desulfurization equipment.
The use of SCS by isolated sources would be a
step toward improved ambient air quality, clean fuel conservation, a
more reliable electric energy supply and consumer savings.
SCS is an evolving technology that is based on the combination of
several existing technologies.
Its principal components are shown below:
A
BACKGROUND
T
SOURCES
TM
I
METEOROLOGICAL
AND AIR
UALITY
I
S
STRATEGY
FORECASTING
S
PLANTS
P
I
H
MONITORS
SUPPLEMENTARY CONTROL SYSTEM
Figure
1.1
R
-2-
First generation schemes such as those at TVA [Montgomery, et al, (2) (3)]
have demonstrated both economy and improvement of ambient air quality.
This project is implementing an SCS in western Pennsylvania on four
coal burning power plants of the Penelec system which total 5,200 MWe.
The relationships among the project participants are shown in Figure 1.2.
SUPPLEMENTARY CONTROL SYSTEMS
DEMONSTRATION PROJECT
r
ATOMIC
ENERGY
COMMISS ION
4]
PROJECT
PROJECT
FUNDING
RESPONSIBILITY
I!
.
MIT
I
I
SUBCONTRACT
FUNDING
f
a-
~
I
.
METEOROLOGY
I
ENERGY
LABORATORY
INNOVATIVE
AND AIR
AIR
QUALITY
MODELS
10NITORING
CONTRACT _
Fl
DATA &
I
CONTROL
CONTROL
STRATEGIES
COOPERATION
.
[
PETiNSYLVANIIA
.
ELECTRIC
ING
Figure
1.2
The demonstration SCS is a second generation design intended to provide
improved reliability, increased objectivity of operation and easier regulation by state and federal agencies.
The project includes a parallel ef-
fort on the development of a third generation SCS method with even greater reliability and objectivity in the air quality prediction process.
third
generation
The
design also provides a completely automaticmeans of reg-
ulation by appropriate agencies.
For the immediate future, the main SCS
-3-
role is in meeting existing S0 2 ambient air quality standards by means
of presently available technology and fuel supplies.
Page 12 of the original proposal outlined five tasks for the Phase
I period of the contract:
1)
Preliminary Data Collection and Analysis
2)
Air Quality Model Adaptation and Development
3)
Forecast
4)
Control Logic Adaptation and Development
5)
Operational Program Definition.
Model Adaptation
and Development
After a surmmary, these five topics will be discussed individually
and related to the work plan laid out in the original proposal.
ationof the efforts
sidered.
of Phase I with those of Phase II will
The coordin-
then be con-
The last section will include references and appendices containing
data and other support information.
A topical
classification
of
the work performed will frequently be men-
tioned.It includes:
1) Operational monitoring and air quality forecasting
2)
Control strategy
development
3)
Innovative air quality modeling
These three topical groupings, in addition to a fourth, analysis, form the
structural framework for the continuing Phase II effort and are mentioned
in this report to facilitate the continuity of Phases I and II.
This report describes work supported by the United States Atomic
Energy Comnission, Division
AT(11-1 )-2428.
of Applied Technology, under contract
number
-42.0
SUM1MARY
2.0.1
Delays
Phase I was essentially a period of preparation for the actual
demonstration SCS on the Penelec plants, which will occur in Phase II.
The planned preparations were not completed, but the reasons for the
delays were more human than technical.
Union regulations affecting
AIRtIAP installation, bureaucratic tie-ups on the collection of Penelec
and PJM (Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland
nterconnection) operating
data, and administrative problems in contract funding and program definition for Phase II have all caused the technical program to be delayed.
The delays that have occurred should not affect the final success of
the project since they can be corrected during Phase II
before the
critical Exercise Control phase.
2.0.2
Data Sources
The available sources for air quality and meteorological data
in the Penelec region are better than average due to recent EPA studies.
However, they concentrate on relatively short periods of time during
the day and year.
Independently, they are therefore limited in their
usefulness for validating real time models, and conclusive validation
will have to await AIRMAP data.
Plant and power system data has been
available through Penelec and arrangements to get PJM data have been
made.
This has proven to be a slower process than expected.
-5-
2.0.3
ionitoring System
The AIRMAP real-time monitoring system is installed and tied
in to the ERT data center in Lexington, Mass.
One S
2
monitor and one
meteorological tower have been eliminated from the planned system because of siting problems.
meteorological tower.
tile
There remain sixteen SO 2 monitors and one
All of the S
period from April to July.
2
monitors became operational in
The meteorological tower did not become
operational until mid-August.
2.0.4
Possible AQ Violations
Penelec's air quality performance has been good in the past, with
no apparent violations of standards occurring.
The AIRMAP system has ob-
served concentrations during area-wide fumigations which indicate possible violations, as would possibly be expected to happen with a more ex-
tensive monitoring net.
are not effectively
version.
inally
artificial
2.0.5
These initial
isolated
results indicate the Penelec plants
from upwind sources during a stationary
thence background concentrations
anticipated.
may be more important
in-
than orig-
In the event that no control is needed under SCS, an
standard may be set to test the system.
Control Options
Operating data from Penelec and PJI1indicatethat it
is physically
possible to change stack temperature, switch fuel and shift load.
However,
there exists significant economic incentive (up to $45,000/hr/plant) to
control by plume templ)erature
conmparisons of all control
modifications.
options,
including
Economic and reliability
scrubbl)ers, have been planned.
-6-
2.0.6
Innovative Air Quality Modeling
Two basic state estimation formulations have been developed and
a third physical model has been designed.
This effort is parallel to the
principal demonstration of SCS which applies standard ERT AQ models.
Efforts at developing an efficient
temporarily
stopped.
state estimator algorithm have been
Instead, a general purpose estimator,
been chosen to develop numerical results.
GPSIE, has
A test day, using EPA LAPPES
data, has been chosen to begin a limited validation attempt while waiting
for an AIRMAP data base to be establi.Ved.
2.0.7
Phase II
Prognosis
No significant unforeseen technical difficulties have developed
in Phase I.
It is expected
that Phase
II will
be completed
on schedule.
-73.0
TASK AREAS
Phase I was intended to concentrate on tasks 1 - 5 of the original
project proposal.
detail
Each of the following is discussed separately and in
in the following
subsections:
Task 1
Preliminary Data Collection and Analysis
Task 2
Air Quality
Task 3
Forecast
Task 4
Control Logic Adaptation and Development
Task 5
Operational Program Definition
odel Adaptation and Development
odel Adaptation and Development
The installation of the AIRMAP system, its maintenance and operation
are not tasks funded by this project.
a contract between Penelec and ERT.
of its data
in this project
as well
That effort is undertaken through
Penelec
has agreed
as allow
to allow
the use of necessary,
the
use
econ-
omic control action on its plants.
3.1
PRELIMINARY DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS
This taskwas identified
data available to the project.
to establish
the type and quantities
of
It was also hoped that analysis of the
data would provide insight into potential problems (and their solutions)
expected to occur in the demonstration phase.
fell into the following categories:
1)
2)
Topography
leteorology
3)
Air Quality
4)
Chestnut Ridge AIRMAP Network
5)
Fuel Characteristics
6)
Operating Characteristics
7)
Costs
Phase I data collection
-8-
The sources of this data are varied, but it is unlikely that other
plants desiring to implement SCS would have difficulty in gathering this
information.
All of the plant and control related information should be
available, since it is necessary for normal system operation decisions.
Topographic and meteorological data can be obtained through the United
States Geological Survey and the National Weather Service.
Air quality
data and source inventories are available through the state and federal
EPA.
The use of the Penelec plants as the subjects of an extensive
five-year study by the EPA, the Large Power Plant Effluent Study (LAPPES),
facilitated the collection of air quality data and meteorological information in this project.
The LAPPES data has been used mainly in the
development of innovative air quality models, and this type of data
would not normally be needed to establish an operational SCS.
3.1.1
Topography
The four power plants of this study are located in the Chestnut
Ridge area of the Allegheny Mountains, to the northwest of Johnstown, Pennsylvania, as shown in Figure 3.1.1.
There is a general upward slope of
the land to the east in this region and the most prominent features, Chestnut Ridge and Laurel
Ridges, are oriented
in a SW to NE direction.
Laurel
Ridge is the bigger, reaching a height of approximately 2,800 feet (854m)
and being located between Johnstown and the
Conemaugh and Seward plants.
Chestnut Ridge has a maximum height of approximately 2,500 feet (762m)
and lies between the Homer City plant and the
Conemaugh and Seward
plants.
The region is generally hilly with 300 feet to 500 feet (90m to 160m) being
-9a typical distance from the vlley
are numerous with the
floor to hilltop.
Creeks and rivers
Conemdaugh River being the most prominent and cut-
ting a 1,300 foot deep (400m) valley through Laurel Ridge.
The Seward plant is located in a valley along the
southwest of Seward, Pennsylvania.
Conemaugh River
It is highly susceptible to terrain
effects because of its short stacks (150 ft.) (45m) with a stack base
elevation of approximately 1,090 feet (334m) above mean sea level (MSL).
Within four miles to the east and south Laurel Ridge rises 1,500 feet
(460m) above the stack tops.
Laurelridge nearby.
The
Conemaugh River valley passes through
To the north and west there are smaller hills which
still rise several hundred feet above stack top, and about 7 miles (llkm)
further to the west Chestnut Ridge begins.
East of New Florence, Pennsylvania, about two miles southwest of the
Seward plant and also on the
Conemaugh River is the
Conemaugh station.
This plant also is susceptible to topographic influences, despite its 1,000
foot (305m) stacks.
Stack base elevation is 1,090 feet MSL (334m) so that
within four miles (6.4kmin)
to the east and south Laurel Ridge rises over
500 feet above stack top.
The Homer City plant, located about three miles (5km) southwest of
HlomnerCity, Pennsylvania, is on a plateau.
Stack base elevation is approx-
1,220 feet (371m) MSLand much of the terrain
to the north, west and south
is about the same elevation, although slightly hilly.
Chestnut Ridge lies
two miles (3.2km) to the east but only rises to about 1,800 feet (550m), or
approximately mid-stack.
Stack heights are 800 feet (244m).
A narrow
river valley is between the plant and Chestnut Ridge, causing the terrain
to drop off about 220 feet (65m) temporarily.
In the region to the east
of the plant there exists a plateau at elevation 1,300 feet (397m) after
-10Chestnut Ridge.
Beyond the plateau, about ten miles (16km) from the
plant, Chestnut
idge rises to about 2,000 feet (610m) again.
The Keystone plant is in a shallow valley about two miles west of
Stack base elevation is approximately 1,000 feet
Shelocta, Pennsylvania.
I4SL(305m) with stack heights of 800 feet (244m).
The surrounding coun-
tryside is hilly and the highest peaks reach about mid-stack height.
Several
rivers
and creeks
pass nearby,
valleys
forming
about
300 feet
(92m) below the hilltops.
The plants lie in an approximate straight line running southeast
to northwest with about 25 miles (40km) separating the Keystone plant
from Connemiaughand Seward.
Pittsburgh lies about 40 miles (64km) west
of Connemaugh and 35 miles (56km) southwest of Keystone.
3.1.2
Meteorology
Meteorological
data for the Penelec region was collected
to establish an understanding of the historical
behavior in the area, and to identify
sources of past meteorological
forecasting effort.
The plants
in the last
to searching through printed
data, daily U.S. National Weather Service
region has been collected
data from te
patterns of atmospheric
data sources which could be useful
In addition
during the demonstration phase.
in order
since mid-June as part of the ERT
This includes both teletype and facsimile data.
are located
in
rural areas and all have begun operation
decade except Seward.
data base exists for the plants.
Thus no
site-specific
meteorological
There are several small airports in
the region and Pittsburgh is relatively close.
The airports [Blairsville,
Johnstown, Altoona and Allegheny County] provide records of surface wind
speed and direction, temperature, pressure, relative himidity, precipitation and cloud cover.
In addition Pittsburgh also supplies data
-11-
on upper atmosphere winds and vertical temperature soundings, using a slowPitts-
unit, and is the closest station with this information.
ascent ESU
burgh also has stability wind rose data compiled, as does Altoona and
Philipsburg.
The best, though limited, source of on-site meteorological data
is the four-volume Large Power Plant Effluent Study (LAPPES) which was
conducted over a period of four years by the EPA.
The limitations arise
because LAPPES concentrated only on morning phenomena and because LAPPES
It followed the completion of the construc-
was not a continuous study.
tion of the large plants and provides data for the following periods:
October
April
13 - 31, 1967
8 - May 10, 1969
March 14 - April 12, 1968
October 9 - November 7, 1969
May 5 - June 1, 1968
April
June 25 - July 23, 1968
October 14 - November 16, 1970
October
15 - November
7, 1968
October
18 - November
April
20 - May 15, 1970
21 - May 20, 1971
17, 1971
Surface meteorology data from Jimmy Stewart was supplemented with an insolation monitor in LAPPES.
Pilot balloons and radiosondes were released
and tracked and instrumented helicopters were used to record the atmosphere's vertical structure.
Unfortunately this data was generally taken
only at one plant in any study period.
The following summary of regional climatology has been taken from
the LAPPES report:
The area of study has a humid, continental
type of climate modified slightly by its nearness
to the Atlantic Seaboard and the Great Lakes. Summers are mild but frequently humid because of invasions of air from the Gulf of Mexico. Winters
are reasonably brisk with occasional periods of
extreme cold; spring and fall months have moderate
to cool
temperatures.
Precipitation
is well
distrib-
uted throughout the year, with appreciable snowfall in
winter and the maximum frequency of thunderstorms in
early summer.
-12-
Surface inversions are relatively frequent during
the warmer months of the year; in winter, however,
cloudiness persists because of this area's proximity
to the track of west-east migratory storms and the
frequent showery weather associated with north-west
winds across the Great Lakes. Cold air drainage induced
by the many hills leads to frequent formations of early
morning fog, which may be quite persistent in the
deeper valleys during the colder months. The study
area is also subject to relatively frequent occurrences
of stagnating anticyclones, a condition conducive to
high, ambient pollution levels because of the resulting
poor ventilation.
Stability wind roses from Pittsburgh, Altoona and Philipsburg are
included in the Appendix.
Also included are tabulations of Pittsburgh's
seasonal and annual mixing depths and average wind speeds through the
mixing depth, which are measures of regional ventilation of pollutants.
The interaction of winds and topography are discussed in the next section
on Air Quality, while the meteorological monitors used in the Chestnut
Ridge Airmap System are described in section 3.1.4.
Meteorological
forecasting
at ERT in Phase
I has been based
airport data mentioned above and National Weather Service data.
on the
A fore-
casting record of predicted and actual values of surface wind speed and
direction, precipitation, and stability class at the four airports has
been maintained since forecasting began in mid-June.
3.1.3
Air Quality
The interaction of the mesoscale winds with the topography in
Penelec produces channeling and downwash effects on the S02 plumes which
-13-
in turn affect the patterns of S
concentrations at ground level.
2
effects are greatest at Seward and
The
Conemaugh, which are in a valley between
Chestnut and Laurel Ridges, and least at Keystone, which is in hilly countryside.
The Homer City plume exhibits a downwash in the lee of Chestnut
Ridge onto a plateau.
An illustration of channeling which is typical of this
region is shown in the Appendix.
The wind roses of Philipsburg and Altoona
(Blair Country Airport) which are 40 miles apart and under the influence of
the same mesoscale winds, exhibit
characteristic
differences in wind direction frequencies
of the SSW-NNE valley influence in Altoona.
The LAPPES
data reflects the downwash phenomenon through records of increased concentrations
in the lee of Laurel Ridge and in observations of pilot balloon subsidence.
These phenomena indicate a need for three-dimensional wind field modeling.
The historical air quality performance of the Penelec plants with tall
stacks has been good.
No violations of standards have previously been
detected by the State of Pennsylvania, or by the monitoring system which
Penelec had in operation before installing AIRMAP.
According to Penelec
environmental engineers, only once, during an episode condition, were any
of the plume reheating devices used in an attempt to reduce concentrations.
Seward,
however,
has had to install
coal cleaning
facilities
because
poor performance, and Penelec has plans to construct a new stack.
of its
The
Penelec plants appear to satisfy the EPA draft requirement that SCS be
applied only to isolated sources.
a
The nearest S
Bethlehem steel plant in Johnstown.
have a large number of significant SO
2
source of any magnitude is
Pittsburgh and Allegheny County
sources, and under certain conditions,
2
i.e., stagnating high pressure and light winds, their emissions affect the
Penelec region near Chestnut Ridge.
It will be necessary to reflect this
-14-
possible contribution to the background concentration from Pittsburgh
during operational forecasting.
The air quality data from the AIRMAP network in Chestnut Ridge region
was collected in real time during the month of July.
values
for the month
are tabulated
One-hour average SO2
in the Appendix.
The highest one-hour average SO2 concentration monitored during
July was the 0.478 ppm recorded at the West Fairfield (C1) station between
0300 and 0400 EST on 12 July.
This station-hour was also the beginning of
the period that had the highest three-hour average (0.327 ppm) observed
during the month.
The Pennsylvania three-hour standard is .500 ppm.
On this date a high-pressure area was centered over Lake Erie.
were generally very light with a northerly component.
Winds
Allegheny County
Airport and Philipsburg reported calm for hours 0400 and 0500.
All SO2
monitors except that at West Fairfield were recording very low values.
This implies that a local source was responsible for the high concentrations
measured at West Fairfield.
It is reasonable to assume that the wind was
channeled southwest between Chestnut and Laurel Ridges from the
Cemaugh
and Seward power stations, which are respectively 5 and 8 miles to the northeast of the West Fairfield monitor, and that the high SO2 readings were due
to one or both of these power plants.
By 0800 the winds had increased
to more than six mph from the northeast at both Blairsville and Johnstown,
and the combination of increased ventilation and decreasing stability as
the sun heated the ground reduced the SO2 concentration reported by the West
Fairfield monitor to more normal levels by 1000.
are given
in Table
3.1.1.
The data for this period
-15T A B L E
3.1.1
Data for Morning of 12 July, 1974
Hour
EST
BSI Wind
Degrees
JST Wind
Kts
AGC Wind
Kts
Degrees
Degrees
Kts
W. Fairfield
so2(ppm)
01
No Report
No Report
20
6
.036
02
No Report
No Report
10
5
.087
03
No Report
No Report
90
3
.145
04
No Report
No Report
Calm
.478
05
70
8
No Report
Calm
.295
06
60
10
Calm
90
3
.209
07
40
7
Calm
10
4
.131
08
50
6
60
6
40
6
.079
09
20
6
310
7
70
7
.114
10
40
6
350
9
70
5
.154
11
40
6
360
8
350
3
.035
12
30
9
360
7
020
5
.002
Notes:
(1) BSI = Blairsville, JST = Johnstown Airport, AGC = Allegheny
County Airport south of Pittsburgh
(2)
The SO concentrations are listed for the hour at which
the average ended.
The highest stationary monitor (bubbler) reading during the LAPPES
study for a three-hour average was 0.230 on March 25, 1968.
At that time
there was a large high-pressure area over the Gulf of Mexico with a ridge
extending to Lake Ontario.
Winds were light and from the west southwest
and the highest concentration occurred 9 km from Keystone.
Several other
monitors in the same region also registered high values during the same
time period.
The 24-hour standard of 0.14 ppm was reached at the Luciusboro (P3)
monitor between 1100 July 13 and 1000 July 14.
During the afternoon of the
-16-
13th, several other monitors also recorded high values, notably stations P4
(Armagh), P5 (Florence Sub) and K2 (Parkwood).
Station P3 reported its
highest one-hour average (0.378 ppm) from 1300 to 1400 on July 13, station
P4 its highest three-hour average (0.166 ppm) between 1300 and 1600, stations
P5 and K2 their highest one-hour averages (0.324 and 0.260 ppm respectively)
between 1200 and 1300 and station K2 its highest three-hour average (0.184 ppm)
between 1200 and 1500.
During this period an almost stationary high-pressure area was centered
over West Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania.
Winds were calm at Allegheny
County and Johnstown Airports for several hours prior to 1000 on July 13.
Scattered tolight broken clouds prevailed at 25,000 feet until midnight.
concentrations increased rapidly as the wind picked up in the morning.
SO2
Wind
directions at Blairsville, Johnstown, and Allegheny County were general westsouthwesterly (at Allegheny County; Johnstown and Blairsville do not report
at night).
The following morning, winds continued southwesterly, and the S
2
concentrations at Luciusboro decreased gradually as the wind increased in
advance of a cold front approaching from the northwest.
The data from Luciusboro
and the reporting weather stations are listed in Table 3.1.2.
It would appear from this data that the high SO02concentrations recorded
were due to the Homer City Station, at least until sunset on the 13th, and
advection from the Pittsburgh area.
Advection of SO2 from Pittsburgh appeared to be a problem also on the
morning of July 9, when seven monitors in the southern part of the network
recorded values over 0.10 ppm during some part of the period 0500-1100.
Winds
were light from the southwest to west, and the ground fog and haze reported by
-17-
T A B L E
3.1.2
Data for Period 1100 13 July 1974 to 1000 14 July 1974
HOUR
EST
7/13
7/14
BSI Wind
JST Wind
AGC Wind
Luciusboro
Degrees
Kts
Degrees
Kts
Degrees
Kts
11
250
6
270
7
330
6
.032
12
-
-
280
6
.149
13
300
7
290
10
260
4
.213
14
300
8
310
7
250
6
.378
15
300
8
310
8
310
5
.336
16
-
-
310
10
280
5
.181
17
300
9
310
12
280
5
.135
18
-
-
330
12
250
7
.083
19
300
6
310
10
230
6
.076
20
260
6
300
7
240
6
.045
21
-
-
290
6
230
6
.055
22
-
-
290
7
220
6
.090
23
-
-
-
-
210
7
.090
-
-
.048
00
Calm
-- --
SO2
(ppm)
-
-
-
-
220
6
.057
02
-
-
-
-
230
6
.104
03
-
-
-
-
210
6
.140
04
-
-
-
-
200
6
.187
05
230
9
-
-
200
6
.190
06
230
10
-
-
180
5
.175
07
290
7
240
12
190
7
.162
08
230
10
270
12
200
5
.130
09
220
11
270
14
210
6
.126
10
240
10
270
10
180
8
.114
01
(Notes for Table 3.1.1 pertain to this Table also)
-
-18-
NWS observers indicated stable stratification.
A broad diffuse high pressure
area lay to the south and gradients were very light.
The highest values
at Penn View (H2) and Laurel Ridge (C2) were measured between 0700 and 0900,
while the highest values at the less elevated stations occurred an hour or
so later.
This behavior is suggestive of the fumigation of a broad elevated
plume such as would be caused by the industry in Allegheny County.
The
air cleared up somewhat after 11:00, when the wind became more northwesterly.
Meteorological data for this period are given in Table 3.1.3.
TABLE
3.1.3
Meteorological Data for Morning of 9 July, 1974
HOUR
EST
JST Wind
BSI Wind
Degrees
Kts
Degrees
AGC Wind
Kts
04
Degrees
Kts
200
3
210
4
05
260
7
06
240
8
270
6
190
5
07
240
7
250
8
210
5
08
250
9
160
9
210
5
09
250
9
300
10
230
5
10
240
10
320
10
250
5
11
290
8
330
12
270
7
12
260
9
350
10
230
7
In contrast to the periods of high concentrations described above,
July 21 was a day on which all stations averaged well below their monthly
average values.
A high pressure area was centered over Michigan; the day
was clear and cool with fairly light and variable winds in response to the
-19-
gentle gradient.
The only high SO 2 concentration recorded was the 0.144
ppm at West Fairfield between 1100 and 1200.
This anomalous value may
have been due to the apparent passage of the wind direction through north
during that hour.
3.1.4.
The meteorological data for the day are given in Table
Note that no reported wind direction would produce advection from
the west.
The monthly averages for July at four stations (Gas Center P1,
Luciusboro P3, Brush Valley H1, and Penn View H2) are higher than the
annual standard of 0.03 ppm.
during
this month,
Because background value should be minimal
it is possible
that the annual
standard
may be in
jeopardy in the Chestnut Ridge region.
This preliminary examination of the air quality in the Penelec area
indicates that advection of SO2 from industrial and background sources to
the south-west and west has a major impact and will have to be modeled
operationally.
Mr. Richard Johnson of the Pennsylvania Bureau of Air Quality and
Noise Control reports that stack and emission data for the major industrial
sources and SO2 emissions for important area sources is available from his
office.
It will be obtained
early
in Phase
II.
-20-
T A 3 L E
3.1.4
Meteorological Data for 21 July 1974
HOUR
BSI Wind
JST Wind
AGC Wind
EST
Degrees
Kts
Degrees
Kts
Degrees
Kts
01
-
-
-
-
50
4
02
-
-
-
-
40
5
03
-
-
-
-
50
4
04
-
-
-
-
70
5
05
120
7
-
-
50
6
06
110
10
-
-
60
5
07
120
9
60
5
60
5
08
120
8
70
5
80
6
09
120
8
90
5
80
5
10
350
7
100
5
80
5
11
40
4
360
9
60
7
12
70
9
120
10
80
6
13
20
3
80
12
80
7
14
110
8
120
8
60
8
15
80
9
150
10
90
6
16
180
4
120
9
110
4
17
90
8
140
12
30
4
18
70
7
130
12
110
5
19
-
-
120
7
20
-
-
130
6
-
-
21
-
-
120
8
-
-
22
-
-
90
7
23
-
-
-
-
00
-
-
--
Calm
Calm
90
5
110
4
-21-
3.1.4
Chestnut Ridge AIRMAP Network
A description of the AIRMAP network is provided in the Appendix.
Hourly average S02 data for the month of July is also tabulated in the
Appendix, as are examples of the two minute output which is available.
Under normal operation the hourly average data is automatically logged and
the two minute data destroyed.
At the option of the computer operator two
minute data can also be recorded.
A discussion of the significant aspects of the July AIRMAP data is
included in section 3.1.3.
It should be noted that AIRMAP routinely monitors
several pollutants and meteorological quantities, although only SO2 is of
interest in this SCS project.
3.1.5
Fuel Characteristics
Most of the information on fuel characteristics can be found in the
Appendix on CONTROL.
Generally, the type of coal burned at the plants at
any given time could be quite different from
On the average,
though,
the coal
oals burned at other times.
has the characteristics:
Moisture
4%
Volatile Matter
30%
Fixed Carbon
48%
Ash
17%
Sulfur
Btu per lb.
2.2%
12,000
Calories per gram 6,600
-22-
Some of these characteristics can vary by significant amounts.
For
example, sulfur content can vary from 1.6% to 6.0%, and in a single batch
can vary from say 1.6% to 3.2%.
Grab samples are made of all the truckloads
that come in, being analyzed daily for each shipping company.
The conveyor
belt is sampled by an automatic cutter, and analyzed daily.
3.1.6
Operating Characteristics
The facilities in this study are base-loaded facilities.
Being once-
through supercritical devices, they are generally forced out of service due
This will considerably help the control
to failures several times a month.
simulations by providing emission reductions which can be used to analyze
air quality improvement in the area.
The incremental heat rate of these large plants ranges from about
7,300 Btu/net KWh at the lower end to about 8,500 Btu/KWh near full load.
The nominal startup-shutdown rate is 5MW/minute, which for one of the
900MW units would mean about 3 hours to completely change the unit from on
to off, or off to on.
A
larger sample of the information on operating characteristics is
contained in the CONTROL Appendix.
The load on this system has an annual peak to annual minimum ratio of
32%, and a 7% per year growth rate.
-23-
3.1.7
Control Options
Load shifting has large economic penalties for the plants involved,
with 5-6 mills/KWh efficiency compared to 10 to 55 mills/KWh for replacement power.
Thus, load shifting would preferably have to be done offpeak,
and would require the consent of all the part owners.
Fuel switching would require about a 6-hour lag to implement, with
about $10 per ton additional cost for 1.25% sulfur coal (instead of 2.4%
sulfur coal).
A coal cleaning facility could be set up on the system.
For
about l0¢/MBtu and a loss of about 10% of the Btu's, a few tenths of a
percent could be removed from the sulfur content of the coal.
Increasing stack gas temperature from 290° to 600°F could be accomplished
by 3 men
in about
1 hour.
each 40°F temperature change.
The penalty
is 1% loss in efficiency
per
The effectiveness is about a 7% reduction
in groundlevel concentrations (for full implementation).
Simulated controls will be possible at many times due to the large
number of forced outages that occur on the plants involved (up and down
several times a month).
Penelec would like to exercise an SCS control for several reasons.
First, it is in their operating license to have such a control procedure.
They also believe there could be long-term gains in air quality, for use
on SO2 , S
4
and any other pollutants.
They
need an interim control for
Homer City which will miss the 6/1/75 emission standard by about 1 to
1
2
years.
And, finally, they would like to have a control mechanism as an
interim measure until better scrubbers are available.
-24-
Costs
3.1.8
The costs of coal are difficult to determine due to the blending
of several spot sources with long-term, and "owned" supplies.
will generally vary from about $15 to $30 per ton.
Transportation costs
Most of the coal used has a Btu content of
run around $2.50 per ton.
about 12,000 Btu/lb.
The prices
With this figure in mind, and assuming a cost of
$24 per ton, the startup cost for these plants is about $4,220, and to
maintain the plant on spinning reserve costs $610/hr.
The bus bar cost of these larger units is between $5.22 and $6.10
per net MWh, compared with replacement costs of power on the system ranging
from (depending on time of day) $10 to $55 per net MWh.
More detailed costs of scrubber systems will be available to Penelec
They presently estimate costs around $2 to $4 per MWh and $50 to
soon.
$60 per installed KW.
3.2
Additional data is displayed in the CONTROL Appendix.
AIR QUALITY MODEL ADAPTATION AND DEVELOPMENT
This task was identified with two goals in mind: operational air
quality forecasting and innovative air quality modeling.
air quality forecasting
Operational
s that part of the SCS which takes emissions,
terrain, meteorology and monitor data and develops predictions of air
quality in time and space.
Innovative air quality modeling is an at-
tempt to improve upon the present generation of air quality models.
-25-
METEOROLOGY >
AIR
TERRAIi
CONCENTRATIONS AT AND
-QUALITY
-
d
) BETWEEN
MONITORS, NOW
AQ MONITORS MODEL
AND IN THE FUTURE
EMISSIONS -
Figure 3.2.1 Air Quality Forecasting
Two separate techniques were to be used by MIT and ERT to meet the two
separate goals.
ERT was to modify their existing air quality models to adapt to
the special needs of the Penelec region and sources.
This was to pro-
vide an operational tool to be used by ERT forecasters in preparing the
forecast of air quality which would trigger any necessary control strategy decisions.
to
MIT, with modeling assistance from ERT, was simultaneously
e pursuing thelonger range goal of developing an innovative method
of forecasting air quality which would then be tested against the ERT
state-of-the-art model.
The progress of each of these efforts is des-
cribed in the following.
3.2.1
Operational Air Quality Forecasting
Operational air quality forecasting is provided by ERT using
standard existing model techniques.
The basic models have required
adaptation to reflect the characteristics of the Penelec Chestnut Ridge
region.
Model development and adaptation have proceeded at ERT on
two fronts, diffusion modeling and wind field modeling.
Early in June
the decision was made by Dr. Schweppe of MIT AND Elliot Newman of ERT
to use for this project the diffusion model then under development for
-26-
an SCS system being installed at an industrial plant in the Midwest.
This model is a modified Gaussian plume point source model.
Although this model did not include any representation
of topographic
effects and had a receptor array limited to 128 points, it was decided
that these disadvantages were outweighed by its virtues of keeping track
of 3- and 24-hour average concentrations at each receptor,
plunerise estimates and automatically
using Briggs'
adjusting emissions of heat and SO2
in plumes according to the loadprojected on individual
units. Furthermore, the major model developmentcosts were already
industrial client.
being absorbed by the
The model was to be implemented by mid-July for
client and is now operational.
that
ERT intended to use the model without ter-
rain adjustments for operational forecasting at Penelec as soon as possible
and to add the terrain refinement subsequently with the assistance of the
operational experience.
The fact that the model was not implemented until August 1, resulted in
no forecasting being done with it during Phase I.
Inclusion of the
vertical modification of plume trajectory resulting from topography has
been initiated, and the changes necessary to make the receptor array more
suitable to the multiple-source Chestnut Ridge environment will be completed early in Phase II.
will
be straightforward
Implementation of this model on the MIT computer
and will
be completed
early
in Phase
II.
This
implementation is required to facilitate control simulations at MIT.
ERT's three-dimensional experimental potential flow model for wind
trajectories has been run for the wind over Chestnut and Laurel Ridges.
The maximum change in wind speed generated was approximately ten percent,
and the maximum deformation of the wind direction was only ten percent.
These results indicate that this model, which lacks any consideration of
-27-
thermal stratification,
s insufficient
mation observed in such areas.
to model the sorts of flow defor-
Consequently work has proceeded on deve-
lopment of improvedwindfield models incorporating density stratification.
A working model is not expected to be available
until
major burden of the costs for this development effort
November. The
is not being charged
to the SCScontract but to other programs at ERT.
3.2.2
Innovative
Air Quality
odeling
The goals of the innovative air quality modeling effort can be
stated as:
--
the prediction of spatial and temporal concentrations of SO 2
--
the incorporation of uncertainty into the modeling process
--
the demonstration of real-time model operation
--
the verification of model results
To meet these objectives, the efforts in this area were separated into
five tasks:
a.
The exploration of general physical models to represent the
process of atmospheric transport.
b.
The identification and incorporation into the physical model
framework of te
uncertainties involved in the determination
of air quality.
c.
The development of algorithms to adapt the models to the
available field data.
d.
The adaptation of the model structure to the Penelec terrain.
e.
The validation of model operation, offline from the demonstration
SCS, using actual
other sources.
field data
from the monitoring
system
or
-28-
The present status of this effort is that a general formulation
of the model has been completed (tasks a and b); the algorithms for data
application have been identified (task c); and a source of validation
data has been identified
3.2.2.a
(task e).
Physical Models
Considerable simulation experience in air quality modeling had
been gained prior to this project, but it is not directly applicable
to the Penelec region because of terrain effects, magnitude of the
sources, and the necessity of developing a real-time modeling capability.
It was decided, therefore, to develop the new air quality models by
starting with the fundamental processes involved,
ing to adapt the simulation models directly.
rather
than attempt-
The techniques
for
adapting the models to the data, called state estimation, are the
same
ones used in the simulations.
Physically meaningful models are desirable in an SCS for two
reasons.
First, SCS must operate in real time, directing control actions
on a time scale compatible with the dynamics of the source and atmosphere.
The sources involved in this project have several control actions available, with required lead times for control implementation varying from
minutes to six to eight hours.
They are required to meet standards which
consider three and twenty-four hour averaging periods.
In addition, the
atmosphere exhibits time constants ranging from minutes to hours, or even
days, which affect the maintenance of air quality. Clearly, statistical
models cannot reflect thisimportant
time structure adequately
real-time control needed in SCS, and an explicit
spheric dynamics is needed.
for the
representation of atmo -
-29Second, an SCS must be capable of improving its performance with
time.
Physical models are advantageous because their performance can be
analyzed component by component through sensitivity studies, and the
weakest components improved by increased data collection or new submodels.
The correspondence between atmospheric quantities and model quantities also
simplifies interpretation of the model results and behavior.
Five physical model structures have been considered and their
equations are given below:
1)
Sutton rlodel (Gaussian plume)
2)
Dynamic Advection-Diffusion PDE (Tracer Equation)
3)
Static Advection-Diffusion PDE
4)
Pure Advection PDE
5)
Weil-Hoult Model (Atmospheric Energy Balance)
Sutton !lodel Gaussian Plume)
C(s)
Q
=
u
y
exp [- 1/2 (
z
2
z2
+
a.
a2
Y
y
)
(3.1)
Dynamic Advection-Diffusion PDE (Tracer Equation)
aC(s,t)
=
-V(s,t)
.
vC(s,t) +
K(s,t) + Q(s,t)
(3.2)
at
Static Advection-Diffuse PDE
T
Define
C(s) = 1
C(s,T)d
T = 1 to 3 hours
(3.3)
O
0o= -V(s)
vC(s) +
+Q(s)
vK(s)vC(s)
(3.4)
Pure Advection
0 = -V(s)
vC(s) + Q(s)
(3.5)
-30Wei 1 -Hoult
_
Qe
a
Cmax
~Q
Cmax - K1 vhe2
L>he,
(3.6)
(3.6)
L < he
Symbols
s - spatial coordinate vector
L-
time
C-
concentration
Cmax - maximum ground level contration
Q - emission rate
y, z - cross wind and downwind distances
Oy, cz - plume spread coefficients
u - downwind speed
V - wind vector - three dimensional
K - turbulent diffusion coefficients - threedimensional
Qi - massflow rate of effluent
K1 - empirical proportionality
constant (dependenton
sampling time)
h
e
- effective stack height
L - mixing depth
These general equations conceal a series of secondary modeling issues
regarding parameters such as wind velocities, diffusion coefficients, emission
behavior, effective stack height, etc.
it
In order to proceed to the other tasks,
was decided not to concentrate on all physical structure models at once.
Physical
model 3, the static
advection-diffusion
model, was chosen as a
physical model structure to be further investigated with state estimation
techniques and field data.
models
The choice was made after comparing the various
on a basis of their physical assumptions, mathematical form, compati-
-31bility
ith the planned uncertainty models, and expected computer efficiency.
This model has been expressed in a state space formulation as described
below, with the concentrations in a rectangular three-dimensional grid cell
representing the system states.
Physical model 5, the Weil-Hoult approach, has
been studied simultaneously with the static advection-diffusion model and is
discussed in detail in section 3.2.2.e.
STATIC MODEL STATE SPACE FORMULATION
Define
c(s)
1
T
= T
f
T = 1 to 3 hours
c(s,T)dt
(3.7)
0
Then
0 = -v(s)vc(s) + vK(s)vc(s) + Q(s)
(3.8)
Define
C:
Then
K 1 vector of c(s) at K 1 values
(3.8)
0=
[V
of s
becomes
+
vK]
C + K D2 C
B
+
+
d
V - matrix of winds
vK - matrix of dispersion gradients
K - matrix of dispersion coefficients
D1i - finite difference approximation to vc(s)
_2C - finite difference approximation to v2 c(s)
(0-1 matrix)
B-
injection
Q-
vector of emissions
matrix
d_- boundary conditions
Define
m-
vector of meteorological parameters (i.e., those that
specify vV, vK, K, boundary conditions)
(3.9)
-32-
Define
-A = [V + VK] Dl1 + K
becomes
then (3.9)
A(m)
3.2.2.b
(3.10)
2
(3.11)
C = B Q + d(m)
Uncertainty Representation
The innovative aspect of the new air quality models tied to state
estimation is their treatment of the process
quality monitoring and prediction.
uncertainties associated with air
The uncertainties which are included in the
state space model are represented by three groups: S02 measurement uncertainty,
emissions uncertainty, and meteorological parameter uncertainties. The uncertainty,
or error between model prediction and field measurement, is represented by the
following formulation:
Define
z-
ambient SO2 measurements
z
_
=
C + error
H is 0-1 matrix
(3.12)
- knowledge of emissions
(3.13)
_ZQ = Q + error
m - measured meteorological parameters
m = m + error
(3.14)
Fromrn (3.11)
(3.15)
H(m)Q + b(m) + error
z
H(m)
H A
A(m)
1
b(m)
=
H A
(m) d m
large sparse matrix
11(m), b(m) - obtained using sparsity programming
Define
R-z- covariance matrix of z errors
R - covariance matrix of Zn errors
(3.16)
-33-
-- covariance matrix of Zm errors
The covariance matrices are determined from engineering judgment and
past data on sensor performance and sensitivity, process control accuracy
and meteorological forecasting accuracy.
The algorithms of state estimation
automatically use the field data to improve (i.e. make consistent with the
available data) these initial covariance estimates.
A standard static state
estimator will be used with this formulation to yield the estimate of the
state having the smallest covariance matrix.
This will represent the most
accurate estimate possible given the available data and its uncertainty.
The covariance matrix also represents the confidence bands associated with
the estimate.
Since the state is the concentration in each grid cell, this
approach yields the most accurate estimate of the concentration in each cell
over the whole region and an accompanying measure of the confidence to be
associated with that estimate.
3.2.2.c
Algorithmic Development
Initially it was
nteded to choose a physical model structure
and develop algorithms to perform estimation of air quality using that model.
The advantage of developing algorithms for a specific ohysical model of air
quality is that one can usually produce efficient computational schemes by
taking advantageof the particular mathematical properties of the problem.
The trade-off
is that more development time is necessary.
Due to this trade-off, the alqorithmic development was delaying the
state estimation process and it was decided to postpone the search for efficiency in computation in order to obtain numerical results with the physical
models.
This decision was influenced by the recent availability
of an MIT code,
-34-
GPSIE (General Purpose System Identifier and Evaluator).
very straightforard
GPSIE uses
techniques, but can easily be applied to nearly any
model adaptable to a state space formulation.
This includes the static
advection-diffusion model.
No numerical results were obtained in Phase I using GPSIE, but they
will be available
early
in Phase
II.
As is described
in the next section,
a
sample LAPPES day has been chosen for the initial numerical studies.
3.2.2.d
odelAdaptation and Verification
Topographic maps of the Penelec region were obtained and studied.
The location of plants and monitors encompassesa region of over 1200 square
This would require a grid of nearly 5000 cells if vertical spacing
miles.
of 100, 200, 500 and L-800 meters (L is mixing height)
is
used, with
a
square mile surface grid.
Fortunately, most of such a grid would not be
utilized at any one time.
Also, the plants are sufficiently distant that
it appears that they will interact significantly only under infrequent meteorological conditions when the winds are from the:Northwest or Southeast.
Prevailing winds are from the Southwest.
Numerous alternatives exist to
dealing with a 5000 state system, including subgrids, plant-centered
grids, or varying grid sizes.
For the initial
has been chosen.
numerical studies a single day from the LAPPESstudy
The analysis
and the day was chosen
will concentrate only on the Homer City plant,
so as to have a good combination
and independence from topography.
of data availability
The independence of the data from topograph-
cial effects was accomplished by choosing a day when the plume trajectory was
parallel
,f
to Chestnut Ridge.
A 714 cell
grid system covering approximately
-35-
120 square kilometers has been designed to cover the region for which SO2
data is available.
The grid cells are 1 square kilometer at their base and
vary in height by layer.
The layers nearer the ground are "thinner" and ter-
rain effects are discretized by the grid at the surface.
Normally there are
four layers in the grid, but terrain may cause one or more lower cells to
be added or removed.
A further discussion of the grid is in the Appendix.
Although the LAPPES helicopter data is virtually instantaneous, it
was assumed that the helicopter data and the bubbler data
.5 hr average)
are compatible and that estimation will occur on a .5 hr time step.
data also has been extended to a .5 hr averaging period.
Wind
This data will be
used with an assumption of constrant plant emissions during each 1 hour
period of plant emission data.
4m
~II
The defined data set will be tested in Phase
using the static advection-diffusion model to determine concentrations at
and between the monitors as a function of wind and emissions.
3.2.2.e
!leil-HoultModel Structure
The Weil-Hoult model can be separated into three parts:
1) Plume
rise equations, which are used to determine the effective stack height under
various meteorological conditions.
2)
Diffusion near the stack exit which
produces the maximum ground level concentration, Cmax.
3)
Diffusion far
downwind from the stack exit which is used to determine the background concentrations produced by upwind sources.
1)
Plume Rise
Stable conditions (60
c6z
night.
>
0) occur during the early morning and at
During stable conditions the plume entrains cooler air near the ground
so that it reaches thermal equilibrium with its surroundings at some heinht
above the stack exit.
The plume equilibrium position during stable conditions
is dependent on the vertical temperature
radient,
0
T7'
,
the wind speed, u,
-362
and the plant operating conditions uibiAT.
h =2.3 '
2uba )1/3
.ibAT
b2.3
1/
(3.17)
/z
v d/dz
Neutrally stable conditions occur during the day when the plume rise takes
place in the mixing layer which is created by solar heating.
gradient in the mixing layer is adiabatic, d
= 0, so the plume never reaches
The convective eddies in the mixing
thermal equilibrium in the mixing layer.
layer break up the coherent nature of the plume when the
to the plume rise velocity.
becomes equal
velocity
The temperature
convective eddy
The effective stack
height during neutrally stable conditions is the height at which the plume
loses
its
eddies.
coherent nature and the effluent
The intensity
of the solar insolation, Qr, and the mixing depth, L,
are used as a measure of the convective
Ah
5.6
Ah=
5.6
eddy velocity:
uibiT
v
2)
s dispersed by the convective
()/ 3 (QrL
(g__)l/3)
(qrL)
T -
(3.18)
-2/3
Diffusion Near the Stack
The effluent from tall stacks, such as those
in the Penelec region, is
released above the region where there is strong diffusion caused by mechanical
turbulence.
to ground
The only mechanism which will bring the buoyant pollutants down
level is the diffusion
mixing layer.
produced
by the convective
eddies
in the
When the plume rise takes place above the mixing layer none
of the effluent reaches ground level.
When L
h
Cmax
0
(3.19)
When the plume rise takes place in the mixing layer the ground level concentration is dependent on the pollutant flux, the wind speed, and the effective stack height he
=
h+hs .
-37-
Cmax = KQ'
When L > hs
(3.20)
vhe
For a 15-minute
3)
sampling
period
K 1 = .21
Diffusion far Downwind of the Stack
In the manner of Holzworth it is assumed that far downwind of the
stack the pollutants which reach equilibrium in the mixing layer will be
uniformly distributed between the top of the mixing layer and ground level.
When the mixing layer is below the effective stack height the concentration
far downwind will be negligible.
When the mixing layer is above the ef-
fective stack height, all the pollutants emitted by the plant are trapped
in the mixing
When
layer.
L < he
Cdownwind
0
(3.21)
The limited number of observations of concentrations produced ten
kilometers or more downwind from isolated sources suggest that the plume
width increases linearly with downwind distance, x, and the concentration
decreases
as
/x.
The following
equation
is expected
to be valid
for x > 3L.
It is certainly correct in the region of 20 kilometers where the Penelec plants
will begin to interact with each
ther.
When L > he
Cdownwind
= K 2Q
(3.22)
xvL
4)
Meteorological Parameters
!,ind speed (v), ambient temperature (T), and solar insolation are
measured at the meteorological tower.
The relationship between the atmos-
pheric energy budget and the solar heat flux (Io ) determines the mixing
depth, L.
-38L = 36 10
(3.23)
t
(Io
=
2
f Qrdt and has the dimensions of cal/cm 2)
o
There is not enough information
available
at Penelec to determine the
Examination of LAPPESdata revealed that
lapse rate in the early morning.
the range of values observed for the lapse rate will
of
i
produce a variation
10%in the plume rise becausethe plume rise is proportional to
de-1/3
1/3
)
d
A value of do
-=
oC/m is suggested for use in the equation
10-2
The variation of the insolation, Qr, during the early morning can be
used to predict
I o and L for the rest of the day to within
50%.
This
estimate could be improved by a more extensive data effort which would
include vertical T soundings.
Validation
The plume rise equations and the diffusion near the stack has been
correlated with LAPPES data by Weil and Hoult.
The ground level concen-
trations and plume centerlines observed on eighty helicopter flights were
used to establish equations (3.18)
K2 , used in equation (3.22)
and
(3.20) .
The empirical constant,
needs to be established with ERT monitoring
The LAPPES data was only taken in the morning so that L is rarely
data.
greater than the effective stack height and K2 cannot be determined accurately.
The variation of do
dZ
was obtained by examining the vertical temper-
ature profiles on one hundred different days.
the day was examined for 50 sample days.
33 sample d(laysof tile LAPPES
data.
The variation
f Qr during
The variation of L was examined from
-39-
3.3
Forecast
odel Adaptation
and D)evelopment
This task was undertaken to provide experience for the ERT forecasters
in forecasting the parameters needed to predict air quality
region.
The task title is a misnomer insofar as there
se which translates the AIRMAP met tower data and
data into parameter predictions.
n the Penelec
s not a "model" per
ational Weather Service
The translation is performed by experienced
air quality forecasters using standard forecasting techniques combined
with a familiarity with the region.
The Phase I adaptation and development
effort was intended to provide forecasting experience for the ERT meteorologists
to establish and increase this regional familiarity.
It became apparent in early June that the meteorological tower at the
Penn View site would not be operational until late in the month at the earliest.
(The extent of the delay caused by the problem of installing the
cable from the base of the tower to the instrument shelter could not be fully
evaluated at that time, so that the forecasts of when the tower would be
functioning in real time were still optimistic.)
Consequently it was decided
that ERT forecasters should gain experience in forecasting wind speed and
direction, stability, and mixing depth for the Chestnut Ridge region by
attempting to predict these parameters for the National Weather Service reporting stations at Blairsville, Allegheny County Airport, Johnstown Airport, and Altoona (Blair County) Airport.
This forecasting began routinely
on June 21, 1974, at midnight 6 A.M., and noon EDT.
forecasts has not yet been completed.
Verification of the
On August 13, forecasting of wind
speed and direction and temperature gradient on the Penn View tower was
initiated also.
A forecast and verification form
s presented
n Figure 3.3.1.
-40m m
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M
m,
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(ti.
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b
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'i-
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f.,
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-41-
3.4
Control Logic Adaptation and Development
To place this portion of the overall effort in proper perspective
it is useful to examine the block diagram of infonnation flow for the
entire system.
_
A
T
BACKGROUND SOURCES-
M
0
METEOROLOGICAL
CONTROL
POWER
STRATEGY
PLANTS
S
AND AIR QUALITY
P
FORECASTING
H
E
YSTEM
S
SUPPLEMENTARY CONTROL
SUPPLEMENTARY
CONTROL SYSTEM
R
E
Figure 34.1
The control strategy is that portion of the SCS which takes the atmospheric models (and predictions) and uses the models of the power system to
~~~~~~~develop
the costs and effects
of all alternative pollution
develop the costs and effects of all alternative pollution
POWERSYSTEM
control measures.
METEOROLOG
I CAL AD
lNFORAT ION
AIR
UALITY INFORMATION
.!,
CONTROLSTRATEGY
PROGRAMS
COSTS AND BENEFITS
OF VARIOUS CONTROL
MEASURES
Figure 3.4.2
The goals of the control strategy programs can be stated as:
--
the evaluation of the ability of the various control measures
to maintain ambient air quality standards
-42-
-- the demonstration that an SCSis workable in real time
-- the substantiation that the operation of an SCSwill not
reduce the reliability of the power system, and that it will
not disrupt system operation procedures
--
the comparative display of the economic, environmental,
reliability, and other ramifications of all the possible
pollution control procedures.
To meet these objectives
the thrust of this effort
has been separated into
four closely coupled
tasks:
1.
A theoretical formulation of the strategy must be made which
meaningfully incorporates the uncertainties of the problem and
which facilitates the easy transfer of this technology to all other
systems.
2.
The control strategy will be exercised, first in a simulation,
then on "mock" and real
3.
events.
Simulations will be made of the long-range maintenance planning
possibilities under an SCS; and the ramifications to the minute-byminute dispatch problem will be evaluated.
These studies will cover
the SCS implications to the neighboring (slower and faster) controls
in the power system operation hierarchy.
4.
The final task will be analysis
and evaluation
control possibilities and their costs,
implications,
of all the pollution
and effectiveness,
The possibilities to be studied will include the effects of:
--
fuel switching (to lower and/or higher sulfur contents)
--
stack gas temperature modification
--
shifting the load
to other
plants
(including use of pumped
storage to effectively shift load in time)
-43-
-- changes in the regulations on allowable sulfur content of
fuel
-- tightening or loosening of existing 3- and 24-hour ambient
standards
-- use of scrubber systems without any by-pass
-- intermittentuse of scrubbers according to control strategy
-- addition of hypothetical standards, specifically 1-hour
SO2 standards, and sulfur times particulate standards (as
discussed in several sources)
The most pervasive factor in determining the type of decisions that a
control strategy must make is the time scale over which the strategies must
be developed.
This time scale in turn is determined by the available
weather forecasting capabilities about which two presumptions can be made:
(1) everything to be known about the weather one minute from
now, is already known, and
(2) nothing can be predicted about the change in climate from
one year
to the next.
Thus, there is no possibility for changing control strategies faster than
every minute or slower than every year.
Between these bounds, the heart of
the weather forecaster's capabilities falls in the 6-hour to 4-day look-ahead
range.
On the following page is a chart of the hierarchy of power system control
levels as a function of the time scales involved.
From the previous arguments
it can be seen that the heart of the SCS must lie
n the Unit Commitment level,
with peripheral assignments given to Economic Dispatch and Maintenance Scheduling.
!e will now briefly go through the types of decisions made at these three
power system operating levels, and then close this section with a brief over-
_
j, ,
__
-44______
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-45view of the literature to date in these environmentally constrained operating problems.
3.4.0.1
Maintenance and Production Scheduling
The use of scheduling and planning methods with horizons of a
few years has been an important tool both in the
ment of power systems.
operation
and the
manage-
Someof the major questions addressed by these mid-
range schedulers are:
(1) timing and duration of maintenance outages,
(2)
timing and batch sizes of nuclear refuelings,
(3)
inputting operating information to long-range simulations,
(4)
commitment of interutility power sales and purchases,
(5)
providing information for fuel budget studies,
(6)
developing weekly production schedules for the optimal
utilization of fixed batches of nuclear, fossil, and hydro
energy, and
(7)
forecasting, contracting and leveling of maintenance and
refueling manpower.
Ideally, all of these tasks
must be performed under the
requirements
of
maintaining system reliability and minimizing all expenses.
Figures 3.4.3 and 3.4.4 show approximately how tasks are divided into the
general, mid-range, generation planning and operations areas.
AIZNTENAIWE
SCIIEDULIN
....
REFUELING
23~HYDRO
~
COST! G
SCIIEDULING
GENERATION
EXPANSION
Figure 3.4.3
Mid-range Generation Planning
Problem
-46UNIT COMITMENT
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
_1'
Forecast
3.4.4
Components of
Figure
wcheduling problem.
ForecasL
the mid-range generation
Historically, maintenance scheduling has been manually performed using
"fill-in-the-valleys" techniques, that is, fitting the largest plant in the
largest hole
n the schedule, see Figure 3.4.5.
There exist several other
criteria, and some computerized programs, but these are not in general use
(it is a manual process for the PJ
coordinator covering the Penelec region.)
I
750
I
500
250
0
5
10
15
Figure 3.4.5
20
25
30
35
WEEKS
Maintenance Availability Curve.
-47At the MIT Energy Laboratory there is a maintenance scheduling computer program which will be used on simulations, and then hopefully as a
real scheduler, to take advantage of the economic and environmental gains
in production scheduling.
The SCS-type environmental gains at this
scheduling level have not been explored anywhere else; the gains that
are possible will
depend directly on the extent of seasonal variation of
the climate and the amount of freedom available in the scheduling process.
All the information required for this simulation is available, with
the only environmental data being the climatological data of such things as
inversion probabilities and stream temperatures during times of possible
scheduled
outages.
Figure 3.4.6 shows one example of the
type
of economic
and environmental trade-offs that can be made on this time scale (the point
marked X represents
the schedule developed by one of the more advanced
computerized scheduling devices currently being used).
3
DOLLARS x 10
_'11
500
400
QAi
.,
300
200
,,i,,·..-~~~
QD
100
,,
0
-550
-450
-350
-250
J~~~~~~~~
i
AIR
ENVIROtNMENTAL
IMPACT UNITS x 103
Fiqure 3.4.6 The area representing all possible
consequences of 'dollar and air pollution' maintenance strategies at a standard reliability level
(the negative values on the air impact axis result
from a convention of rewarding plants as a function
of the time of year they are scheduled out for maintenance).
-48-
3.4.0.2
Unit CornmitmentScheduling
Basically, the unit commitment scheduler makes hour by hour de-
cisions on which plants will be operating and at approximately what levels
they should be loaded.
one week.
The horizon time for these schedulers is generally
Although there are computerized
operate manually (Penelec is in
schedulers,
a system which
operates
many systems still
manually).
The purpose of the unit commitment scheduler is to turn plants on
and off to follow the load demand, see Figure 3.4.7.
600
4
9
500
10
2
400
U,
1I`)
300
6 X
SZ
I-
200
z
8 Z
00
r
2AW
BPM
SAM
lIME
2PM
8PM
Figure 3.4.7 Graph showing the removal of units
on a priority system so that the load can be fol1 owed.
Since the heart of the SCS is in the unit commitment time scale, much
more of this level of operation will be described later.
to have a general idea of what is occurring, in particular:
1.
Operatin
considerations
- Demand for power
- Sufficient reliability - reserves
- Ilydro, nuclear,
gas consumption quotas
- Pumped hydro scheduling
- Reservoir limitations
- Min., max. up and down times
for
many plants
It is, however, important
-49-
2.
Maximum startup and shutdown rates
Geographic limitations
Capacity limitations on olants (variable)
Startup costs varying with down times (nonlinearly)
Performance Measures
- Dollar costs
- Reliability
For SCS use, environmental factors will also affect the generation
capabilities, and possibly will be used as performance measures in the
system (e.g. a measure of interregional "fairness" to avoid pollution
exporting).
The coordination of information is displayed in the following
block diagram.
.. I...
"
-S
'2
MLnvTEzLUOE
SCEDOLZS
NVOLE.
LR PUZLII:G
SCRlXE
PZWDUCTIONQUOTAS
lour].y )spntch
Fiture 3.4.8
Commitment
Block Diagram Representation of Unit
in an SCS
-50-
3.4.0.3.
Dspatch
Techniques
The dispatch (or economic dispatch) is the minute by minute
scheduling of system operations.
The dispatch schedulers are universally
computerized and act strictly to minimuze the incremental cost of producing
power.
An operating SCS would have some troublesome ramifications on the
dispatch operation.
Since dispatchers are currently operated only for
economic incentive, they would require some environmental constraints if
they are not to work contrary to some of the pollution limiting decisions
of te
unit commitment scheduler.
There are apparently several theoretical
possibilities for handling this type of "conflict of interests," such as
bounding operations of particular plants or developing pseudo-incremental
costs.
Probably the best technique would involve constraining the weighted
sum of generation from particular facilities.
The usefulness of this
method will, of course, depend upon the nossibilities for modifying the
existing computerized dispatch programs.
3.4.0.4
Literature Relevant to SCS
Very briefly, most of the literature on environmental operating
constraints for power systems lies in the area of the dispatch techniques.
Most of these schedulers (see References:
minimize tons of S
2
ent, Lamnnt, Delson, Finnigan)
emitted on an incremental basis identical to current
dollar incremental cost techniques.
ne (Sullivan) attempts crudely to
relate emissions to pollution concentrations at one prespecified groundlevel point.
These dlispatchstudies are inappropriate for use as an SCS
because tey
attack the problem at the wrong time scale.
Tile right tir
and several
studies
MIT studies).
scale is, as was mentioned, the unit
ave addressed
ts
commitment
problem (see Peferences:
level,
TVA, ERT,
The most sophisticated of these studies were done at MIT,
-51 -
setting up constraint sets representing the system's limitations;
(3.25)
A x < b
and using performance measures of the form
min
where c is parameterized.
Te
c x
(3.26)
maintenance and production schedulers use
the same basic concepts as the unit commitment devices.
Ample document-
ation of these methods is available.
3.4.1
Control
easures
This section deals with the physically possible methods of controlling pollution.
data relating to the Penelec
The specifics ad
situation are left to the Appendix entitled CONTROL.
This section, then,
is a brief outline of the possibilities.
Fuel switching is the most easily understood of the pollution control
measures. It involves the storage of two grades of fuel (at Penelec these
are typically2
to 2.4% sulfur
and 1 to 1.25% sulfur
of about 6 hours before the emissions
stantialadditional
reflect
coal) plus a time delay
the switch. There is a sub-
cost for this cleaner coal, about $10 per ton on top
of the $15 to $20 per ton current costs.
A facility
such as Homer City,
which consumes about 600 tons of coal per hour at 1800'IWfull load, could
switch fuel for about
6,000 per hour.
must liecompletely modeled
to fully
There are a number of issues which
describe
the
--
cost of fuel (which can changedaily)
--
Btu content of fuels (alsochanges)
fuel switching alternatives:
-- sulfur contents of fuels (is monitoreddaily)
--
time lag for control action
--
additional labor costs
--
additional maintenancecosts of inefficiencies
increased clinker buildup
due to
4
-52-
in the rate base
--
whether
--
loss of particulate precipitator efficiency with low-sulfur fuels.
or not fuel costs
can be included
The effect of fuel switching on pollutant concentrations is obviously
very important, e.g. half the sulfur content in the fuel means half the
ground level concentrations (neglecting slight changes in heat content
A recent report by ERT (ERT, 1974, Table 5.3) demonstrates
on fuels).
roughly the effect of fuel switching on frequency of violations.
I
16'
FREQUENCY
of
VIOLATIONS
\
12
8
4
0~~~~~
\ \ \~~
o~~~
-4
50%
25%
75%
100% PERCENT OF FUEL
l'?M
ST'T.VT'jR
TC T.rW
Figure 3.4.9 Effectiveness of fuel switching for reducing
(adapted from [RT, 1974, table 5.3)
violations
Stack cias temperature modification
effected
Iby changing the operation
is a control measure which is
of an air
preheater.
The economics
of the process is considered to be minor; three men are required and the
chlange in temperature
at Homer City and
AT
can be as much as 310°F
Conemaugr,AT
(from
= 150°F at Keystone).
2onVF to 6O0:F
Using the standard
plume rise formula (G.A. Briggs, 1969) the increase in effective stack
height could be about 12.
the standard
Gaussian
and the resultant maximum concentration (using
formula)
would be
3%7 of the original.
Although it
-53-
;,~
is possible
to operate
the prehleater at fractional
decreases,
it appears
that those costs would not vary significantly from full reduction and thus
full reduction will be the only considered control measure.
The economic
ramifications of changing stack gas temperature will be explored fully.
Shifting the load to other plants has perhaps the greatest potential
as a pollution
control
A number of simulations
measure.
Gruhl, 1973; Eisenberg and Vertis,
(see for example
1973; Gruhl, 1972) support the intuitive
reasoning that a great potential effectiveness exists.
In a power system
which often operates from 1/3 to 1/2 of its capacity, decisions of which
plants to shut down are made on a very small difference of marginal cost.
Since these plants cover the whole spectrum of pollutant outputs (for SO2 :
nuclear, hydro and gas turbines have negligible pollution) consideration of
pollutants can give large environmental gains at low costs.
Load shift in can take advantage of the following situations:
-- variations in the pollutant outputs of plants on system
-- variations in background concentrations and/or dispersive
potential in different airsheds over the system
-- variations in emissions per megawatt at the upper and lower
ends of each plant's loading curves
-- possible storage of energy at pumped storage facilities for
use at times of higher
predicted
concentrations.
For Penelec, the plants considered can switch load at a rate of about
1.3% per minute.
However, because these plants are very, very efficient
tile cost differential between these facilities and many of the older units
makes the load shifting
un(economical
for
this
ne facility).
per hour to completely replace
may have to be simulated using the
as pretensions of SCS exercises.
high
situation (as much as $45,000
Therefore, load shifting
utage rates of these facilities
-54-
Scrubbers with no By-pass are the fourth alternative.
Some states,
for instance New Jersey, are presently notplanning to allow for the by-pass
of the scrubber systems that are installed.
In this type of system a failure
of the stack gas desulfurization equipment will cause an outage at the power
facility.
Such designs have severe economic and reliability implications
(as well as potential environmental consequences of bringing online older
plants to provide replacement power). Simulations will be madeof this
type of pollution
control measure as soon as adequate data is accumulated
on the costs and performances of various scrubber systems (in about 3 months).
Intermittent Scrubber operation is the final control strategy
ility.
This will involve the simulation of noncontinuous operation of
stack gas desulfurizatinn equipment,
the compilation of realistic,
ere, again, simulations
actual scrubber operation data.
really two types of intermittent
must await
There are
scrubber operation that can be studied.
One is the by-pass of scrubbers only to avoid power plant outaqes.
other
ossib-
is
the
possibility
f operating scrubbers only at times
economically and/or environmentally advantageous.
The
hen it is
For instance, where
stack gas temperatures cause sufficient buoyancy to put the plumes above
inversion layers (resulting in pollution-free operation), it could be
environmentally harmful to scrub out much of the S02 with the resultant
treiietndous temperature
relduction in the plume hich might not then allow
that plume to pus;trough
3.4.2
te
inversion layer.
Control Strategies
lost of the control action for an SS will
take place
at the unit
comitment level, that is, the hour-by-hour scheduling to a one week horizon.
The information
Figure 3.4.10.
flow of a unit commitment schedule is shown in
For an SCS which is respondinrg to 3- and 24-hour stan-
dards the flow of infoniation
can be sen i Figure 3.4.11 .
For a very
-55-
short description of some of the control strategy work consider the following
symbols:
t
=
time
c = pollutant concentration
Qi
emission rate of source i
Maintenance Schedul
Power Exchange
Contract Decisions
eling
ly
es
S cheme
ucli ear
ductioin
Les
Figure 3.4.10
Each of the control
Hourly Dispatch
measures
will
separately
be evaluated
predetermined combinations) on a case by case basis.
(and in
To demonstrate some
of these calculations consider first a simple load shifting model for
meeting the 24-hour standard.
Suppose that the standard is violated in
one particular cell of the grid of concentration, ad
that the violation is
isolated in time from other violations, simplifying the scheduling
problem to a static-type dispatch technique.
The problem can be ex-
-56-
pressed as [where everything is knownbut APit)]:
[As(t) -
min i
where
and
i t
UAPi(t)
c,(t)]
wh X
p, (t)
AP(t)
(3.27)
APi(t)
+
24
Pb
<0
~~~~~~~~~~~~(3.28)
(3.28)
(3.29)
= 0
with Xp ,i(t) as the incremental addition to pollution from plant i
at time
t
x
is the incremental
cll(t)
cost of i and time n (this will
vary
as
the operating point varies)
XS(t) is the system-wide
APi(t)
is the change
incremental
in the output
cost
at n
(MW) of i at time t and Pb is
the extent to which the 24-hour standard is broken.
The equations can simply be expressed as the minimization of the replacement
power cost required to bring the cell under the standard.
are available information.
However, each Xpi(n)
Both Xs and Xci
must be computed from the
equation which relates the concentrations c(s,t) and the emissions Q(t).
As another example of the formulation of the control strategy equations
consider the modeling of the stack gas temperature change required to meet
a 3-hour standard.
Ahead of the strategy computation is the determination
of the concentrations modes in (and near) the violation areas.
MILES
NORTF
REDICTED
IOLATION
REA
LES EAST
Figure 3.4.11
Predicted Violation 'lodes
-57-
sources
The controllable
violation
area
is
B and
are plants
a mode
in
1, 2, 3, 4; the mode
(units)
area
a near-violation
is
in the
A.
Also ahead of the strategy development is the computation of coefficients from the controllable source contributions to mode concentrations.
cB = concentration
predicted
at
cA = concentration
predicted
at
CA,hackgd
= background
HA1 = contribution
HA2, HA3,
A4, H1,
at A
concentration
at A
of unit 1 to concentration
B4 likewise (contributive factors)
HB2, HB3,
Q1l Q 2' Q 3 ' Q 4 = emissions
1, 2, 3, 4
from units
where
4
4
z tlAiQi = CA-CA backgd
il
=
(3.30)
= C-CBackqd
HBQ
i=l
Assuming this 3-hour violation (predicted) is isolated in time from other
the strategy
violations,
is to effect
the predicted violation below the standard.
to drop
In different form
4
4
i~l
cost aQ i sufficient
a least
IzitAi
Q
< S-cA
1
E 1
i=l
Q
<
(3.31)
S-cB
where S represents the standard concentration.
changes in emission rates,
,
In this equation the four
are variables.
Representing the cost of stack gas change in terms of a linear coefficient
Di then te
cost of control can be
4
=Z I)iAQi = cost of control
(3.32)
(direct)
Another cost of control (which is indirect) results from the slight loss
in efficiency on the units controlled (including power to the air preheaters)
4
Ei; then
i
EiaQ'
= cost
of power
(3.33)
lost.
i=l
The effective emission reduction AQ
i
from the increase in emission tem-
perature is probably best broken up into two quantities,
X
=
the
fraction
-58-
of control exercised (0 to 1, fractional values would indicate exercising
the control measure over fractional portions of the 3-hour interval) and
Qi'= the effective emission reduction assuming full operation of control
measures (will depend on the level of plant operation, and sulfur content
of fuel)
by X
Q! is replaced
then
Nlow (if the loss of power
computed
due to control
is not dependent
can be time constant,
then E
of plant operation
AQi.
othenlise
on level
it must
be
from the power levels):
4
4
DX
min
[Ei(Pi)Xi
+
i=l
(3.34)
i=l
where
4
i=l
ItAi AQ i
( Pi F i )X i
< S-c
(3.35)
A
(3.36)
4
HBiaQi(Pi,Fi)Xi
E
i
where
< S-CB
l
Pi is the operating
level of the unit,
and Fi is the sulfur
content
of
the fuel.
As in the case with all uncertain
processes,
measurements
of the levels
of certainty associated with predictions are at least as important as the
predictions themselves.
Since the air quality standards are specified in
terms of levels which are "not to be exceeded more than once per year" it
is natural to develop probabilistic measures of air quality.
A lengthy document on reliabilities of SCS's has been developed by
ERT (Document P-669, February 1974) thus only a brief overview will be
presented here.
-59-
0-4
JQ
o
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v)
C)
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.44
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00U0
U, 43
0-
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Q
1
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CeJJ0
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44
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E
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o4c-Iz-
9-4.74.7
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IH
1' 0
0
0U4
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Cl)
V
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.
b0C
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-
->=
1.I
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IoC 4v
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U 0a)
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0~~~~~~
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C: v)
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r.3
a 4-' 0 4
a 00u sr
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et
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(2. .)
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3.
I CC
aO t1C) CI
0
-60-
Consider the following definitions relevant to understanding the probabilistic model:
c(x,t):
C(t):
concentration
at time t and location
x
max c(x,t); maximum concentration over all x locations at
time t
x:
downwind location of C(t)
Q(t):
emission
M(t):
meteorological function relating the maximum concentration C(t)
rate without
SCS
to source emission rate Q(t) which will include the effects of
stack height, wind conditions, mixing depths or any other
pertinent meteorological inputs
R(t):
the error ratio of concentration prediction defined as follows:
With or without an operating SCS, the observed maximumconcentration
related to the actual emission rate Q through
the
meteorological
C is
function
as follows:
Co
= Q
(3.37)
M at time t
With an operating SCS, the corresponding maximum predicted concentration
is related
to the actual
emission
rate Q and the meteorological
function
M (defined above) through the Error Ratio R as follows:
Cp = Q
t
R at
time
From the above, the error
R
Cp/ C
t
ratio
(3.38)
can be defined
as
(3.39)
M
-61-
Assume that there exist probability density functions for M and Q, and we
wish to generate a frequency distribution for C when no SCS is operating.
If A is any concentration value, Q and M are independent of each other
and random variables, then
Pc(C = A) = [PQ(Q =
PM(M = A/C) +
+
PQ(Q = 2)
PM(M = A/2c)
+---
+
PQ(Q = n)
PM(t = A/nc)
+---
or, in the limit as
0f
P(C - A) :
)
(3.40)
+hE
e approaches
M
PQ(Q = c) ·
P1(M:= A/c)d¢
(3.41)
orPC(A) =
f
PQ(C)
(3.42)
PM(A/C)dC
0o
Expressing the operator above by *,
[3.43)
PC = PM*
PQ
This equation states that the probability density function for maximum
ground-level concentrations can be derived from the convolution of the
probability density functions for M and Q.
Therefore, the frequency dis-
tribution of ground-level concentrations for an uncontrolled plant can be
detemined
from determinations of ?1and Q.
Consider
next the case when
the SCS is operating.
In this case Cc = Qc.'l
where subscript c denotes the functional value when the SCS is operating.
Qc is no longer independent of meteorology since the operation of the
SCS depends on meteorological forecasting.
P
will, therefore,
Q
also be generally
for different control strategies.
integration,
tile
dependence
readily simulated.
dependent
upon P
vary
and will
For computer solutions to the correlated
of these quantities upon each other can be
-62-
Assuming that the error ratio
given PR
and PQ it is possible
P,
determining
Q
to numerically
In this case Cp =
is independent of
to use control
evaluate
Q
R.
PC
under
and of Q and
strategy
rules
for
the SCS control.
The value of Qc is determined
in each
case from the predicted value of concentration Cp and from the strategy used.
From the resulting distribution of Qc' the value of PCc is easily obtained
from the equation
PCc
=
'CcF'Qc
PQc * P3
~(3.44)
*~~~~~~~~~~~~
Note the parallel nature of this equation and the equation for P,
This means that te
existing frequency distribution of ground level con-
centrations for a plant can
e determined from archived measurements of Q and
M, and from records of air quality forecasting accuracy during operational
use of the SCS to determine
R.
R is a function
from all sources of error and uncertainty
forecast (that is, Cp
=
Co).
0
which
contains
contributions
which prevent a perfect air quality
These sources of uncertainty arise from each
component of the SCS -- meteornloaical forecasting, emissions forecasting, and
air quality modeling.
R
Rq
where Rq, P,,
Rw
Rm
R has the following form:
(3.45)
and Rm are the error ratios for emissions prediction, meteor-
ological (weather) forecasting, and air quality modeling respectively.
This probabilistic-reliability formulation, as it has been presented,
would pose computational problems due to its complexity and often repeated
usage.
Fortunately there is a widely used and often substantiated simplifying
assumption which can be invoked, and that is that the probabilistic distribution of pollutant concentrations at any one point in time and space is log
normal in shape.
This log normality assumption enables the description of
the entire distribution function in terms of two parameters -- the geometric
-63mean and geometric deviation.
Thus, with only twice the number of equations
as the deterministic formulation would require, the entire probabilistic
formulation can be handled.
With the log normality presumption the single source probabilistic
models are handled easily.
more consideration.
The multiple source modeling requires a little
In particular, if each of a number of contributing
sources are individually modeled in a log normal fashion, then their summation
is not log normal.
Thus
the approach
to be taken
involves
the log normal
modeling of the combination of sources around a midpoint equal to the sum
of the means.
The variances would then be (by proportionate or some other
functional relationship) relegated to the contributing sources.
The method
of relegation will have to come out of examinations of actual data sets.
The solution technique for this problem could be handled by linear
programming or, possibly, successive approximation dynamic programming, both
will be tested to see
hich is best.
Once the pollution constraint equations have been set up, the operating
considerations of the power system must he incorporated.
On the hourly time
scale the loading curves of the generation plants become quite important; these
are modeled as follows.
here:
C
Consider, for example, the loading curve presented
, Cost
max
Cmid
Cmin
min
Meaawatts
Pmin
Pmid
Pmax
Figure 3.4.13
Define x(k)
a. plant 1 in the kth intprval
eing on or off, i.e. 1 or
,
xl(k) as plant 1 either operating between the midpoint and the maximum mega-
-640
watt rating or not operating there, i.e. 1 or 0...
ow defining y(k)
and
1
yl(k) as the fractional operation along the first and second segments of
the curve, then
Power from unit 1 at time k
=
11
PminXi(k) +(Pmid
Pmin) yM(k) + (Pmid
-
Pmin)Xl(k) + (Pmax- Pmid)Yl(k) (3.46)
and the cost of operating unit 1 at time k is
Cl(k) = CminX(k) + (Cmid - Cmin)Y°(k)+ (Cmid - Cmin)xl(k)+
(347)
(Cmax - Cmid)Yl (k)
with the logic requirements
o
y(k)<
xl(k)
x°(k)
1
1
=
0 or
-
y'(k) - xl(k) ?
-
Yl
x3(k)-
k)
xl~k)yl~
1
i = 0,1
(3.48)
i =
(349)
,l
(3.50)
x1(k)
3.51)
to preserve the proper loading order of the cost curve (note that cost may
mean economic and/or environmental costs).
If this cost curve happens to
break in an upward direction rather than downward (as is the case for the
Penelec plants) then the second integer, xl(k), will not be required because
the increasing incremental costs will automatically preserve the loading order.
Of course, if the loading curve is linear or requires perhaps even more exact
modeling, such as two or three break points, these cases are obvious extensions.
Another pertinent factor which must be included in the scope of the
unit commitment strategy is the ability to relate unit startup costs to the
length of previous unit down time.
For the computation of these startup
costs it is advantageous to define a dummy variable z(k) as follows:
xl(k) - x(k-l)
= z(k)
Then torepresent the following startup cost curve, for example
Cost
-65-
r
s
q
intervals of
down time before
0
_
~~0
1
2
~
3
| |
s L ..
o, .
startup a
x
Figure.3.4.13
the cost penalty is st(k) where
st(k)
> rz(k) - (s-q)x°(k-2) - (r-s)z(k-2)
(3.52)
(3.53)
st(k) > 0
(In this simulation mode all binary variables can be relaxed to allow fractional values, thus greatly increasing the speed of the simulation with little loss
in accuracy.)
Some of the other features of the unit commitment strategy including
modeling
of:
(1) fuel switching
capabilities.
(2) gas contract quotas, with penalties for misses,
(3)
use of nuclear and hydro energy-use quotas,
(4) hydroelectric and pumped hydro pondage accounting,
(5) spinning reserve requirements,
(6)
limited transmission loss
(7)
minimum
down
modeling, and
times and startup
rate limits.
KI
-66-
The week-by-week maintenance and production scheduling, see Figure
3.4.4 above, will also play an important role in an SCS.
Climatological
data can be used to help plan the 2 to 4 week long maintenance outages of
facilities during times of low atmospheric dispersion potential. The
minute-by-minute power system dispatch must be evaluated in light of the
difference in objectives between this economic control and the environmental
SCS actions.
For example, the SCS could confine the operation of units to
specific bands of outputs and the dispatch control would put all these on
the edge of the band reflecting the most economic operation.
This could
have system reliability and air quality ramifications, and thus must be
investigated.
3.5
Operational Program Definition
This task was identified to establish the detailed technical efforts
which should be included in the actual SCS demonstration of Phase II, and
in particular, tasks 6 and 7 of the original proposal.
It was not possible
to specify these matters before the preliminary data collection and analysis
were performed and the AIRMAP system installed.
undertaken:
Four areas of effort were
discussions with EPA, ERT operational forecasting, control
demonstration stages, and model development.
task which led to the Phase
It was the effort in this
I organization of tasks in terms of fore-
casting, control, modeling and analysis.
3.5.1
EPA Discussions
Discussions w.ith the EPA were limited to the Federal EPA at the
request of Penelec.
Penelec would prefer approaching the Pennsylvania
regulatory groups no sooner than after the mock demonstration has been
tried and results of SCS operation are available.
-67-
The discussions with the EPA were intended primarily to gather information potentially affecting
the EPA has not yet issued
the
demonstration project.
Despite expectations,
an approval of the promulgated regulations
(Federal Register, Sept. 14, 1973) on SCS.
The draft guidelines and dis-
cussions with the Office of Air Programs would indicate that no unanticipated
technical requirements will be made on the project's
e related to the increasing EPA
The delay in approval would seem to
concern over
the eventual fate of S
maintains ambient air quality, it
the atmosphere.
2
operational SCS.
in the atmosphere.
Although SCS
can increase the total SO2 loading in
The removal process is poorly understood and the products
of S02 reactions or its synergistic effects with other pollutants may
have more potential health effects than SO2 itself.
This area, which is
not addressed by this project, is one of the most important areas of SCS
research today, but little is being done in a quantitative manner.
In addition to gathering information, the discussions also disseminated information about the project.
Discussions have been held with EPA
personnel in Washington, D.C. and Research Triangle Park, N.C. including:
Dr. Robert Papetti - Ecological Processes and Effects Division,
R&D, Washington,
Dr. Larry
D.C.
iemeyer - 'leteorology Laboratory, NERC, RTP, ,q.C.
Dr. Douglas Fox - Mreteorology Laboratory,
ERC, RTP, N.C.
Mr. Jack Thompson - Asst. Director, NERC, RTP, N.C.
Dr. Ken Caldwell - Meteorology Laboratory, rIERC,RTP, N.C.
These individuals have voiced support for the thrust of the innovative
modeling effort in its attempt to model explicitly
of the air quality prediction process.
that
the present
project's
the
uncertainties
It appears from our discussions
state estimation
approach has been suggested
-68by other researchers
stage.
but that
no one else has reached
the field testing
On the contrary, other researchers suggesting this approach seemn
to be developing
simulation
on the problem of SCS.
efforts,
and are not explicitlyconcentrating
Our discussions to date with EPA have served to
establish informal contacts on
oth the administrative and technical
levels and these contacts will be maintained through the remainder of
the project.
3.5.2.
ERT Operational Forecasting
The operational forecasting effort of ERT during the demonstration
SCS will consist of two functions.
forecasts of te
First, ERT forecasters will prepare
meteorological conditions at Penelec.
These forecasts
will be made twice daily (on two forecaster shifts) and cover the five six-hour
periods immediately following the forecast.
A six-hour period was chosen to
reflect the limitations of forecaster accuracy and to coincide with the
approximate time scale of persistent weather conditions.
In situations where
adverse dispersion conditions are expected additional forecasts will he made.
Examples of such adverse conditions might be a morning fumigation period or
a stagnating anticyclone.
Tese
forecasts
ill include specifications of
wind speed and direction, precipitation, stability and mixing height.
Second, the
[ERT reteorological
forecast will be combined with plant
emission data to predict the regional air quality and especially any violations
of standards.
quality
Tlhis air quality predictinn wlill entail the use of ERT'sair
rmodel and the data
available
The ope(rational fore(castinj
violation
wihich iill imitate
from the AIP'IAP monitors.
ill provide the prediction
the operation
of control
strategy.
f a standards
at that
-69-
point it will
that
ensure
forecast
to test the proposed
be necessary
reductions
emissions
the standards are protected, and this will
require a second
of the EPT model, using the revised emission schedule.
etween the control stratepv
iteration
be facilitated
This
codes and FPT's forecasters
!ill
codes on the
of the ERT air quality
by the installation
to
IT
computer where they can be accessed as a subroutine to the control strateqy
A record of all forecasts
codes.
using
SCS reliability,
will be made
ethlods of te
the
to allow
report, "Analysis of the
Reliability of a Supplementary Control System for S
Point Source", which was prepared for te
In a parallel
2
Emissions from a
federal EPA by ERT.
effort to the operational forecasting for interface
t
with the controlstrategies,
provided
of
evaluation
forecasts of meteorology will
modeling
to the innovative
group.
This will
also be
provid(iea common
basis for th-ecomparison of the innovative models with the ERT operational
models.
3.5.3
Control Demonstration
The demonstration
of
lation, (2) "mock" control,
Staaes
the SCS will follow the course of (1)
and (3) actual
control,
as described
simu-
previously.
The evaluation will involve the cost-benefit analysis of all the possible
pollution control
easures,hopefully including all the inherent life-
cycle costs of equipment such as scrubbers (i.e.
installation,
operation,
scrapping, etc.).
situations liste(l in sction
of real dlata from te
3.4 ill
materials,
production,
It is intended thatall the
be evaluated( with a firmfoundation
l)ower system under consirderation.
The following
table showsall the possible cases which will be tabulated in the final
comparative evaluation.
-70-
Load
Shifting
(incl.
maint.
sched.)
Stack Gas
Temp. Modif.
Fuel
..
.
Control -+ Switching
Methods (to higher
and lower
sulfur)
Standards
Pollution
Scrubbers
(with and
without
bypass)
Intermittent
use of
Scrubbers
Existing,
tightened &
loosened
3-
& 24-hr
standards
Higher &
B L E
P 0 S S
sulfur
lower
%
standards
X standards
~ A T I 0
C 0 M B I
on coal__
Hypothetical
standards such
_
_
_
_
S
N
_
as 1-hr ambient S0 2 , sul-
fur times partic., etc.
i
1
,
.
'
_
Table 34.1
Case studies resulting in effects on air quality and total capital
included indirectly
effects
and operating dollar costs(ith reliability
in costs by forcing power purchases).
The progress toward this final comparative evaluation currently stands
at the stage of preparing for the advanced simulations.
which have been performed up to this point,
although
The simulations
probably adequate
for the Penelec situation, would not be of general applicability.
Be-
cause of the nature of the Penelec plants, baseloaded and the most efficient
on the
system,
there
is
no need for strategies
cisions from the scheduler.
"minimum down time" or"startup
That is,
rate"
there will
which involve dynamic de-
probahly never be any
problems because these plants
would
probably never be shut down. For this case, then, an incremental scheduler
is probably sufficient, and an example of an incremental-type simulation
is described
later in this 'section.
-71-
The work on a dynamic scheduler requires the use of more sophisticated optimization techniques, which have been narrowed to two possibilities: linear programming and successive approximation dynamic programming.
The optimization programs are in a stage where they are
being assembled and tested separately from the rest of the control
strategy, i.e. as separate subroutines.
The cruder, incremental scheduler can best be described through the
presentation of a simple example that has been run through it.
is the principal
contributor
to the violation
grid point (10,10) at hour 14.
that is shown
to occur
at
The display shown on the next two pages
showes the costs of the control
strategy
modification
in this example.)
is not considered
Unit 1
possibilities
(stack gas temperature
It is probably instructive to briefly describe what has happened in
this example.
Since Unit
1 was by far the major
contributor
to the
violation, much greater proportions of other units would have had to be
controlled for the same effects as small controls on
are more or less comparable
among
the units,
nit 1.
nit 1 has the greatest
"cost per pollution" leverage and is the only one controlled.
has a higher
cost increment
for its top 502
replacement cost of energylis
hour.
is
Since costs
11,1
of generation,
Unit 1
and the
radually more expensive on each successive
Thus 50? 1V! is scheduled in as many of the earlier time slots as
require(dto bring the probability of violation down to a prespecified
"acceptable"
level.
This example shows control only on the "incremental cost of pollution,"
that is, it does not assess te
would
probably
not Lbe viable
opportunities of shutdowns of plants (which
for the Penelec
situation).
The new optimization
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
72
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-74-
techniques nowbeingtested for the control strategy will incorporate
these dynamic capabilities,
and this 'Will make the control strategy
programstransferable to any other situation.
lodel Development
3.5.41
The problem of model development in the remainder of the project
came a crucial
as the extent of the ERTslip-
area of program definition
pages became apparent.
It
be-
as decided to pursue model development both at
ERT and 1IT.
Had no delays occurred,
Phase I would have included
and the beginning of
adaptation of the ERTmodels to the Penelec terrain
AQ forecasting.
Instead, essentially
the complete
no air quality
model development oc-
curred and the brunt of the adaptation must be performed in Phase II.
This development,consisting chiefly of terrain modifications, receptor
dimensionality adjustments, and control interfacing with !IT,
scheduled for the first six
eeks of Phase II effort.
was
This schedule
is believed to be compatible with the original concept of the demonstration
SCS since the crucial
period.
period
of the demonstration
is the Exercise
Control
Due to the necessity of performing control simulations and
Hock Control, it would be impossible to start Exercise Control before
the model development
ork early in Phase II.
It does not require changing
the operational proqram definition of the control tasks for the demonstration phase.
More specifically, the terrain adaptation is needed to reflect the
plume transport over the ridges and hills
at Penelec.
The AQ forecast
model to be used in Phase II is being developed by ERT for another
That client
has a source on relatively
in the original
flat
code for the model to reflect
terrain
client.
and no provision is
how a plume follows the
-75-
terrain.
The first part of the ERT model development is the inclusion of
a simple description of the plume behavior in the Penelec terrain.
The second problem concerns the potentially large number of receptors (i.e., a location, not necessarily an AIRMAP monitor, for which
the AQ model predicts concentrations.)
A complex terrain model may in-
crease the number of potential receptor sites of interest.
The size of
the area naturally affects the potential receptors, and the Penelec region
of interest is over 12)O square miles.
Background concentration effects
will probably be important due to the proximity of Pittsburgh, and it
is desirable to have sufficient receptors upwind to aid in the prediction
of background.
Finally, a desire for greater accuracy of predicted con-
centrations will require the number of potential receptors to increase.
Fortunately,
at any time, only a small subset (2
total potential receptors will be of interest.
°'
for example)of tile
The problemis to adjust
the model codes to facilitate the identification of the relevant receptors
as a function of meteorological conditions.
The unmlodified ERT SCS model, designed for an existing
industrial
plant, includes a forn of control strategy that is unacceptable for this
project,
due to the large number of control options resulting
connected nature of an electric
definition
power system.
concerns the control strategy
code and the lIT codes for control
The final
interface
strategy.
from the inter-
operational
program
between the adapted
It was decided this
had
two tasks: eliminate the effects of the existing code's control decisinn
logicwithlout
destroying
communications
control action.
the usefuln-ss of the code and facilitate
etween EPT and MIT in the AQ evaluation
It was decided to install the ET
machine to accomplish this.
the
of recommended
model on the
MIT
-76-
In addition to adapting the ERT model to reflect terrain effects on
plume transport, a separate modeling effort was undertaken to improve
the forecast of local winds.
These wqinds are a function of terrain
and
various methodsexist for their prediction based on the regional geostrophic
wind and topography.
These methods employ numerical solutions
model which should increase the accuracy
model and is developinga multilayer
of results
work
the vertical wind shear better.
y reflecting
ill continue in Phase II,
to the stage where it
forecasters.
single-layer
ERT has an existirng,
dynamical equations to predict flow.
to fluid
and the multilayer
model should progress
can provide wind flow predictions
The single layer model will
wind flow data for the forecasters
This development
for the Penelec
be used in the meantime to provide
matrix for the inno-
and the wind field
vative modeling work.
The innovative modeling effort will
planned
that the alternate
models
continue in PhaseII.
to be explored
will
It is
be chosen
in
early
will be expended on model validation.
Phase II and that most of the effort
This should not be considered as a part of the operation of the SCS,
since ERT models will
to be a parallel
be used for
effort
to improve
that
purpose.
the available
Rather this is intended
modeling
In the validation process the plants' emission
ERT meteorological
forecast
will
data
technology.
and the
regular
e used to drive the newlmodels.
models will forecastSO2 concentrations
in the region
and these will
compared to the forecasts of ERT usinq the SCS operational codes.
forecasts will
then be compared to the AIRIIAPfield
data.
If
The
e
Both
validation
results indicate a level of performance better than the ERT models, an
attempt will
be made to use the innovative models in the operational
system.
-77-
4.0
COORDINATION
OF PASES
I AND II
Phase I of the project was intended to prepare the groundwork for
Phase II.
The groundwork included establishing a project data base,
developing meteorological experience, adapting the necessary air quality
models to the Penelec region, developing the control strategies and
preparing the structure of the innovative air quality models to be tested
as part of Phase II.
While the emphasis of Phase I was on design, the emphasis of
Phase II
is
on the implementation of the designed SCS.
Phase II will
include the operational forecasting of meteorology and air quality,
the testing and operation of the control strategies and the aalysis
the SCS performance.
I
models
on the SCS field
will be tested
of
a parallel effort, the innovative air quality
data in an attempt
the operational air quality models being demonstrated.
to improve
on
Generally the
Phase II efforts are straightforward extensions of the earlier tasks,
and have merely been regrouped to emphasize operation as opposed to
design.
Data collection will continue as an integral part of the forecasting,
control and AQ modeling efforts.
ified in Phase I, Phase II
Using the major data categories ident-
data collection will be concerned with main-
taining the necessary operational information for SCS decision making,
and for testing the performance of the SCS.
Phase II
data will be gener-
ated by the SCS, with the notable exceptions of National Weather Service
and Penelec operating data,,whereas most Phase I data was compiled from
other sources.
-78-
Phase I AQ modeling will be involved in Phase II operational forecasting (ERT) and innovative air quality modeling (ERT and MIT).
Developmental work on the ERT models is still needed due to delays during
Phase I.
1)
The work which has been delayed involves
reflecting the complex terrain of Penelec in the AQ
prediction model
2)
choosing a grid reduction scheme to reduce the dimensionality problem caused by the number of receptors needed
in the region and
3)
interfacing AQ with the MIT controls.
This developmental effort should be short lived and result in an operational
air quality model "tuned" to the Penelec region.
The innovative air quality modeling effort was and will continue to
be a parallel effort to the operational SCS demonstration.
After the
model formulation begun in Phase I is completed, the models will be
tested off-line to compare their prediction ability with the tuned ERT
models and the field data.
This effort of comparing predictions must await
the operation of the ERT model, but until that time limited tests will
occur using LAPPES data.
Forecast modeling in Phase I was concerned with the problem of determining the meteorological parameters needed for the use of the air quality
models.
This was done by preparing actual real-time forecasts.
effort is continuing into Phase II
forecasting effort.
This
as part of the operational air quality
Also, a multilayer three-dimensional wind flow model
has been under development to aid in predicting the complex flows in the
Penelec region.
This work, an improvement over ERT's present single-
-79layer model, will continue during Phase II with any necessary wind field
modeling being performed with the single layer model until the multilayer model is satisfactory.
Control development in Phase I was concerned with establishing
on SCSoperation,
the relevant Penelec and PJ1 constraints
(economic and reliability)
ability
of the SCS.
that the utility
would use to judge the accept-
Then these criteria and constraints were incorporated
into strategies for applying control action.
In Phase II the strategies
will be implemented and their performance evaluated.
control
actions,
and the criteria
such as load shifting,
Even though certain
may be very undesirable
on the
Penelec plants, these will still be evaluated under the utility's criteria.
Program definition is ended as a specific task after Phase I.
Phase
II will
have its own technical
decisions,
such as whether
to em-
ploy an artificial Exercise Control period, which will essentially define
the remainder of the project.
But unlike Phase I, where the initial
ab-
sence of a data base and the uncertainties of SCS design made a definition
of the details of SCS implementation difficult, Phase II is a well-defined
program.
The Phase I SCS design
will be implemented and, in a parallel
mode, innovative air quality models will be tested.
-80-
5.0
REFERENCES
Control Strategy Development
1 9 6 6
Gartell, F. E., "Control of air pollution from large thermal power stations",
Symposium on Air Pollution Control, Haus der Technik, March 9, 1966, Essen,
Germany, Belgian Royal Society of Engineers and ndustrialists, March 16, 1966,
Brussels, Belgium, 1966.
1967
Montgomery, T. L. and M. Corn, "Adherence of sulfur dioxide concentrations
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17, no. 8, August
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1969
Savas, E. S., "Feedback controls in urban air pollution", IEEE Spectrum,
vol.
6, pp. 77-81, July
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1 9 7 0
Shepard, D. S., "A load shifting model for air pollution control in the
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1 9
7 1
Gent, M. R. and J. W. Lamont, "Minimum emission dispatch", IEEE Transactions,
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Eisenberg, L., and A. S. Vertis, "Environmental Considerations in Power Dispatch",
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4 pp., 1973.
in the Power
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Gruhl, J., "Electric power unit commitment scheduling using a dynamically
evolving mixed integer program", MIT Energy Laboratory, 150 pp., NTIS PB224-006/AS, Springfield, Va., January 1973
Lamont, J. W. and M. R. Gent, "Environmentally-oriented dispatching technique",
Proceedings 8th PICA Conference, pp. 421-427, Minneapolis, 1973.
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Montgomery,
T. L., J. M. Leavitt,
T. L. Crawford
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"Control
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of Mining, Metallurgical and Petroleum Engineers, Chicago, Illinois, February
1973.
Montgomery,
T. L. et al.,
"Controlling
ambient
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Patel, N. R., "Optimal Control of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions at Power Stations:
Models and a Case Study", Ph.D. thesis, Operations Research Department, MIT,
Cambridge, Mass., June, 1973.
Ruane, M. F., "Cost Evaluation of Air Pollution Control Standards", MIT Energy
Laboratory, NTIS No. PB-223 980/AS, Springfield, Va., February 1973.
Rothenburger, P., "A Sulfur Dioxide Pollution Control of Electric Power Plants",
MS Thesis, MIT Department of Electrical Engineering, Cambridge, Mass., August
1973.
Sakai, Tsuguo, "Estimation and Prediction of the Dispersion of Pollutants Emitted
in the Atmosphere", MIT Department of Electrical Engineering, Cambridge, Mass.,
May 1973.
-82-
Sullivan, R. L., and D. F. Hackett, "Air Quality Control using a Minimum
Pollution Dispatching Algorithm", (mimeo), Engineering and Industrial Experiment
Station, University of Florida, 1973.
1 9 7 4
Delson, J. K., "Controlled Emission Dispatch", paper T 74 156- , presented at
the 1974 Winter meeting, IEEE Power Engineering Society, New York, N. Y.,
January 1974.
Desalu, A. A., "Dynamic Modeling and Estimation of Air Pollution", Ph.D.
dissertation, MIT Department of Electrical Engineering, Cambridge, Mass., 1974
Electric Light and Power, "Supplementary Control Systems: Last Chance to Avoid
So2 Scrubbers", Electric Light and Power, E/G Edition, April 1974, pp. 26-27.
Environmental Research & Technology, Inc., "Analysis of the Reliability of a
Supplementary Control System for SO2 Emissions from a Point Source", ERT
Document P-669 prepared for U.S.E.P.A., 429 Marrett Rd., Lexington, Mass.,
150 pp., February 1974.
Finnigan, . E., and A. A. Fouad, "Economic dispatch with pollution constraints",
paper C 74-115-8, presented at the 1974 Winter meeting, IEEE Power Engineering
Society, New York, N. Y., January 1974.
Gruhl, J., "Generator maintenance and production scheduling to optimize economicenvironmental performance", MIT Energy Laboratory Publication # MIT-EL 74-002p,
Cambridge, Mass. 02139, January 1974.
Hoult, D. P., and W. T. Kranz, "Feasibility of Fuel Switching in Boston",
MIT Energy Laboratory Report, MIT-EL-74-001, Cambridge, Mass., May 1974.
Marks, D. H., and P. F. Shiers, "Economic-environmental system planning: Part
III, Site Evaluation: Water", presented at the 1974 IEEE-PES Summer Power
Conference, Anaheim, Ca., July 1974.
Ruane, M. F., "Economic-environmental system planning: Part II, Site evaluation:
Air", presented at the 1974 IEEE-PES Summer Power Conference, Anaheim, Ca.,
July 1974.
INNOVATIVE AIR QUALITY MODELING REFERENCES
1 9 5 7
Smith, F. B., "The Diffusio, of Smoke from a Continuous Elevated Point-Source
into a Turbulent Atmosphere', Journal Fluid Mechanics, 2, p. 49, 1957
-83-
1962
Blackadar, A. K., "The Vertical
Distribution
of Wind and Turbulent Exchange
in a Neutral Atmosphere", Journal Geophysical Research, v. 67, No. 8., p.3095,
July 1962.
1968
Slade, David H., ed., Meteorology and Atomic Energy 1968, USAEC, TID-24190,
NTIS, U.S. Department of Commerce, Springfield, Va., 1968.
1969
Hanna, Steven, R., "Characteristics
of Winds and Turbulence in the Planetary
Boundary Layer", Environmental Science Services Administration, Technical
Memorandum ERLTM-ARL 8, January 1969.
Shir, C. C., "A Pilot Study in Numerical Techniques for Predicting Air Pollutant Distribution Downwind from a Line Stack", Atmospheric Environment, v. 4,
pp. 387-407, June 1969.
1970
Lumley, J. L., Stochastic Tools in Turbulence, Academic Press, New York,
New York, 1970.
Shir, C. C., "Numerical Investigation of the Atmospheric Dispersion of Stack
Effluents", IBM Research Laboratory, San Jose, California, July 1970.
1971
Briggs, G. A., "Plume Rise: A Recent Critical Review", Nuclear Safety,
No. 1, p. 15, January-February,
v. 12,
1971.
Egan, B. A., and J. R. Mahoney, "A Numerical Model of Urban Air Pollution
Transport", presented at the American Meteorological Society-APCA meeting on
Air Pollution Meteorology, North Carolina, April 1971.
Egan, B. A., and J. R. Majoney, "Applications of a Numerical Air Pollution
Transport Model to Dispersion in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer", Harvard
School of Public Health, Boston, Mass., December 1971.
Martin, Delance, "An Urban Diffusion Model for Estimating Long Term Average
Values
of Air Quality",
JAPCA,
v. 21, No. 1, January
1971.
1972
Egan, B. A. and J. R. Mahoney, "Numerical Modeling of Advection and Diffusion
of Urban Area Source Pollutants", Jrnl of Applied Meteorology, v. 11, No.2,
pp. 312-322, March 1972.
-84-
Golder, D., "Relations Among Stability Parameters in the Surface Layer",
Boundary Layer Meteorology 3, D. Reidel Publishing Co., Dordrecht, Holland,
1972.
Holyworth, George C., "Mixing Heights, Wind Speeds and Potential for Urban
Air Pollution Throughout the Contiguous United States", U.S.E.P.A., AP-101,
January 1972.
Schich, L. J. et al., "Air Quality Diffusion Model, Application to New York
City", IBM Jrnl of R & D, v. 16, No.2, March 1972.
Shir, C. C., "A Numerical Computation of Air Flow over a Sudden Change of
Surface Roughness", Jrnl of Atmospheric Science, v. 29, No. 2., pp. 304-310,
March 1972.
Shir, C. C., "Turbulence Transport Model", IBM Research Document RJlll9,
IBM, San Jose, California, October 1972.
1973
Halpern, P. et al, "Air Pollution Modeling for an Episode Condition in New
York City, January 10-12, 1971," IBM Data Processing Division Report
320-3311, IBM, Palo Alto Scientific Center, Palo Alto, Calif., January 1973.
Kondon, J., "Concentrations of Carbon Monoxide in a Street Canyon", IBM Data
Processing Division Report 320-3310, IBM Palo Alto Scientific Center, Palo
Alto, California, January 1973.
Sakai, Tsuguo, "Estimationand Predictionof the Dispersion
Emitted in the Atmosphere", MIT Department of Electrical
of Pollutants
Engineering, MIT,
Cambridge, Mass., May 1973.
Shir, C. C. and L.J. Shieh, "A Centralized Urban Air Pollution Model and Its
Application to the Study of SO Distributions in the St. Louis Metropolitan
Area", IBM Research Document R31227, IBM, San Jose, California, May 1973
Shir, C.C., "A Preliminary Numerical Study of Atmospheric Turbulent Flows in
the Idealized Planetary Boundary Layer", Jrnl of Atmospheric Sciences, V.30,
No. 7, pp. 1327-1339, October 1973.
Weil, J. C., Hoult, . P., "A Correlation of Ground-level concentrations of
sulfur Dioxide Downwind of the Keystone Stacks", Atmospheric Environment,
V. 7., pp. 707-721,
1973
-85-
1 9 7 4
Desalu, A. A., "Dynamic Modeling and Estimation of Air Pollution", Ph.D.
Dissertation, MIT Department of Electrical Engineering, Cambridge, Mass.
1974.
Desalu, A. A., L. A. Gould and F. C. Schweppe, "Dynamic Estimation of Air
Pollution", Electronic Systems Laboratory Report ESL-P 534, Cambridge,
Mass., February 1974
Hoult,
D. P. amd W. T. Kranz,
"Feasibility
of Fuel Switching
in Boston",
MIT Energy Laboratory Report, MIT-EL-74-001, Cambridge, Mass., February
1974.
-86-
A.1
METEOROLOGICAL/AIR QUALITY
This appendix lists the monthly summary of AIRMAP S
quality data at the sixteen monitoring stations.
2
air
It includes concentrations
equating the 24 hour standard at monitor P3 (Luciusboro) on July 14, 1974.
Also included is 24 minutes of two minute average data from the entire
Chestnut Ridge AIRMAP system.
The latter two tables present wind rose data for the three
stations nearest to Penelec-Pittsburgh, Philipsburg and Altoona (Blair
County), and mixing depth information as observed at Pittsburgh, the
nearest station taking regular upper atmospheric soundings.
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03
-105TABLE A.1.2
TWO MINUTE TELETYPE DATA
PENELEC - AUG. 18, 1974
09:28 EST
parameter code
parameter value
Parameter identifier:
N2H
XXXX
XX
--monitor status code
station code, 2 is Florence Substation
Network code, N is Chestnut Ridge
999 indicates missing data
Note that the tower data at station G is mostly nonsense on this
printout.
The tower was still not functioning properly at the time.
Current Parameter Code Listing
Code
Format
NN. N
NNN.
NNN.
NNN.
NN.N
N. NN
.NNN
.NNN
NN.N
NNN.
NNN.
NNN.
NNN.
NNN.
NN.N
NNN.
.NNN
.NNN
Particulates*
Wind Speed (miles)
Wind Direction (degrees)
Temperature (degrees F)
Carbon Monoxide Concen.(PPM)
Hydrocarbn Concen.- moth. (PPM)
Oxides of Nitrgn. (PPM) NOx
Sul. Diox. Concen.(PPM) L
N
Temp. Difference (degrees F)
Dewpoint (degrees F)
Stability Classification
Wind Range (degrees)
Nitrgn. Diox. Concen.(PPM)NO 2
Cloud Ceiling (100 feet)
Cloud Cover (0.0 to 1.0)
Solar Altitude
Ozone Concen (PPM)
Sul. Diox. Concen.(PPM)Meloy
**
ERT FORM 1142o
J
K
L
M
N
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
X
Y
Z
+NN
NNN.
NN.N
N. NN
NNN.
.NNN
NNN.
N.NN
NNN.
N.NN
NNN.
NNN.
N. NN
Vert. Wind Comp. (Bivane)
Horiz. Wind Comp. (Bivane)
Hydrocarbon Concentration (PPM)
Methane Concentration
Voltage Test**
Nitro. Oxide Concen. (PPM) NO
Wind Speed (Knots)
Remote Readout**
Rain (inches)
Coefficient of Haze (degrees)
Sunlight Intensity(cal/cm2 )
Visibility (tens of meters)
Megawatts
Generalized Control/Monitor**
NNN.
Air Mass
Primarily used by the NOVA programs, and not by statistical programs.
-106TABLE A.1.2
,"":"!
20 N 1 H:
0)4 NH:
Ci:4 N2Ht:
!,:^:
Ci: :
04 NEH
I:
174 04 NFH:
8:' N C.)N:
N7H:
NIH:
NMH:
r78
14
N7C::
NF 6:
0!4
07 NAH:
C)3
010
N :T :
NET:
NGT:
N1X:
4 04 NT,:
04 N2X:
NOX
77.
(:]4 NFX
C)
.
NGc'!
f,.
;,
'_'
.
IRllH :
tC
:3)
N ')N:
N7H:
NDH:
NMH:
NF6:
NOT2:
NIX:
42.
N H
0.4 N2H:
04
04
07
04
.:,.4 02
: 34 04
NLT
0-4 N2X
...
,:'1 NC. .
- -Nr.'F:'
NWIX:
0),9: 32
N ON:
.2) I li:
N7H:
NDH:
04
N 3 H:
0(4
NEI'H
NMH:
".:;72:
0)4
NNHT
x!7C:
05
0)4 N76'
NF'/,
72
4
"7":
*':" .
7~
NO Y
N'HF-
,]' ,,?, ,-?
NLT'
N2 X
028 04 N3H:
NAH: . 056 04 NEH:
NFH: . 172 04 NGH:
NCH: . 067 04 N3C:
N' C:: . 999 20 N86:
168 04
.038 04
. 000 05
N6H:
NCH:
NLH:
.055 04 N36:
. 999 20 NFC:
. 999 20
. 052 04
. 053 04
.102 04
. 999 20
NET:
95.
NG.,-,:
0C4 NMT:
(04 N:3:X
7.
NE:YX:
:)4 NLX:
77.
0: 4 Nl , :
92. 5'04
85. 04
00
122.
77. 04
1. 99 04
9.
1
04
NFT:
NNT: 100. 0 04 NOT:
N6X:
NCX:
NMX;
999. 20
N7X:
04
78. 04
NDX:
NNX:
NTK:
77,
04
04
04
04
100. 0 04
96. 8 04
79. 06
71. 06
76.
04
04
NT.J:
48. 7 04
N3H:
. 200 04 N6H: .999 20
035 04 NCH: . 061 04
.000 05 NLH: . 049 04
236.
20 Ni..: 9'..99 20
,) 4
NAH:
. )4. NF H:
2O
04
041
NCil :
04 NT2:
04 N G''; :
2.
.
`4.
C
7
)
f04
' C)
N7T:
04
NDT:
04
NMT:
'74
N. : X :
04
0I''4 NF'Y
':) ~l NG,.:.
i NR
!- 20
:.
04 NO6: .089
04 NG3: 121.
92. 1 04 N2T: 100. 0
99. 9 20 NAT: 97.
()
4 NT::
O.
04
i. K F:\,'
NT1:
N1T:
N8T:
0 4 NGr:
';;'..":; 4
.' 04 N6T:
20 NCT
80. 06
06
04
04
NOC:
(0)4 NOI :
NrO:
20 N7X:
999.
258 04
04
N3X
NOX:
E:4. 04 N6X:
' 45.
; )C)
Q)4
0i:4 NFX
20
04
137 04 NGH: . 000 05 NLH: .051 04
04 N3C: . 047 04 N36: .100 04
99 20 .N86: .99 20 NFC: .037 04
253 04 NOC: . 015 04 N06: .089 04
179. 04 NT1:
9. 04 NG3: 121. 04
. 040 04 N1T: 91. 9 04 N2T: 100. 0 04
9:'-. 04 N8T: 99. 9 20 NAT: 97.
04
0 04 NET: 95. 3 04 NFT: 100. 0 04
92. 5 04 NNT: 100. 0 04 NOT: 97. 0 04
04 NT2: 179. 04
04 NG',: 0C)38 04
- 20 N7T: 93. 9 04
0t)4 NDIT:
.0 04
NGI;:
04 N 1'
.- 4 (i04 NT':
71¶ 0 -04 N6T:
7.!:.
*7 4
07
NNH
. 161 04 N6H: .999
. 038 04 NCH: .042
71.
109. 04 NCX: 77. 04 NDX:
04 NL:. 77' 04 NMX: 79. 04 NNX: 76.
04
NGL1I: 9. 99 20 NTJ: 46. 8 04 NTK: 238.
20C)
04 N76
NGT'
NDT':
C04 NMT:
N 4 FR:
04
07'T~
04
().4
9 '2 N:3:H:
C.:4. 12 04 NEH
N7C::
NCi':
2fC! N7T'
04 N-:_::)'.
0i4 N.:X:
2i0 NAX
NEX:
0r4 NiG6:
04
4 -,.
9'7. 4 0C4 N/"r:
2.,) N: T:
,4
04 NLT'": ; / .
74.
04 NSC:
04 NT2:
).4 NCG1:
-3
058 04 NBH:
02 NOH: .091
NNH:
0.4 N76:
04 NGC:
. 029 04 N3H:
7 :E:
NE: X
NLX
4.
2C)
NJF::.
02, . 04
)52 04
NEWH:
1 5 04 NGH:
0 6-3 04 N3C: .044 04 N36: . 104
999 20 N86: 999 20 NFC: . 037
26 04 NOC: . 016 04 NO6: . 088
179. 04 NT1:
10. 04 NG3: 121.
039 04 NIT: 91. 9 04 N2T: 100. 0
93.
04 N8T: 99. 9 20 NAT: 97. 6
0 04 NET:
95 3 04 NFT: 100. 0
100. 0 04 NOT: 97. 0
'2. 04 N6X: 999. 20 N7X: 80.
9/9. 20 NCX:
72.
78. 04 NDX:
7:. 04 NMX:
o80. 04 NNX:
74.
1. 99 04 NTJ: 47. 3 04 NTK: 236.
91. 9
C)4 NNT:
. 99 20
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
06
06
04
04
-107TABLE A.1.2
r(I:. 34
023 04 N2H: . 028
04 N8H:
20 NAH: . 072
N7H: I 035
0.39 04 NEW: . 129 04 NFH: . 219
NDH:
.072 04 NNH: . 035 02 NOH: . 049
NMH:
N7C:: . 013 04 N76: . 033 04 N8C: * 999
NF6: , 092 04 NOCC: . 005 04 NO,6: . 271
NON:
NCG2:
_ 6,8.
NSS:
N3T:
-3. 4 (04 NT:
97. 4 04 N6T:
NE-:T:
99P. 9 20
NrT:
98.
04
L,
N1X:
NSX:
NEX:
75.
NOX:
79.'
NHR:
OF 1:,.
,, 99 20 N1H:
NC:T:
04 NLT'
04 N2X:
20 NAX:
04 NFX:
04 NG.-':
80.
C ,
NO 1:
04 N4R:
.,
NON:
9. 99 20 N1H:
N7H:
. 033
NDlH:
NMH:
N7C::
() 7
_
. 020 04
N2H:
20
123 04
04
NNH:
(135
N76:
0:32 04
NAH:
NFH:
NOH:
N8C:
NF.: . 1-5 04 NG::
NO2'
04 NG 1:
NS -:: -3. 4 04 NT8:
NST:
Nl::T:
NOT:
NIX:
N:, X:
NEX:
NO:
NHR:
0.)4
N6-rT:
9 20
NC:T:
5,9
."!: -
. 999 20
NEH:
112 04
NNH:
035 02
NF6
(0)4
NE:T
04 NO1
97. 4 04 N6 :
N76:
NOC:
.)4 NCT:
(:0)
74. 04
NOX:
NHR
7:.
04
0032
. 013
9'7. )
N2XY.;
76.
70.
77.
NF X:
7:-:. ()4 NG9:
: 4
'. '*"- 04 N4R:
. 038
04
NOC:
.013 04 N06: . 087 04
04 N03: 121. 04
.217 04 N6H: .999
NO'-; :
42.
.
. 027
. 061
. 259
057
. 99
. 288
179.
. 041
93. 9
.0
91. 7
999.
78.
1. 99
c/ cc/
NAH:
NFH:
NOH:
04
04
04
04
20
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
20
04
04
N3H:
NEH:
NGH:
N3C:
N86:
NOC:
NT 1:
N1T:
N8T:
NET:
NMX:
NT.J:
0 04.
6 04
0 04
0 04
20 N7X:
82.
06
NDX:
72.
06
04 NNX: 76.
04 NTK: 234.
04
04
. 175 04 N6H:
.999 20
.000 05
NCH:
NLH:
. 066 04 N36:
.999 20 NFC:
04
. 999 20
. 045 04
. 057 04
123 04
. 083
.085
.012 04 N04:
9. 04 NG3: 121.
04
04
04
91. 7 04 N2T: 100. 0 04
80.
04
48. 5 04
NNX:
NTK:
04
04
04
06
06
77. 04
236.
. 134 04 N6H: .999
999 20 NCH: .046
NOH:
.000 05 NLH: .057
N3C:
0.38 04 N36: .089
N86: .999 20 NFC: .042
NOC:
.014 04 NO6: .088
NT 1:
9. 04 N03: 121.
N1T: 91. 7 04 N2T: 99. 9
NT: 99. 9 20 NAT: 97.
NET: 95. 3 04 NFT: 100. 0
NNT: 100. 0 04 NOT: 96. 6
N6X: 999. 20 N7X: 81.
NCX:
76. 04 NDX:
73.
NMX:
81.
04 NNX: 76.
NTJ: 52. 5 04 NTK: 236.
N3H:
.065 0)4 NBH:
9. 99 20
04 N2T: 100.
20 NAT: 97.
04 NFT: 100.
04 NOT: 96.
99. 9 20 NAT: 97. 6
95. 1 04 NFT: 100. 0
NNT: 100. 0 04 NOT: 96. 6
N6X: 999. 20 N7X:
81.
NCX:
75. 04 NDX:
73.
20
.211 04
054 04
04 N;C: 999
$ 20
04 N06: .300 04
04 NT2: 179. 04
04
.040 04
20 N7rT: 9"::. 7 04
04 NDT:
0( 04
04 NMT: j1. 2 04
(04 N3X:
85. 04
04 NEX: 999. 20
04 NLX:
79. 04
04 NOILI: 1. 99 04
20( N R:
20
04 NCH: . 047 04
.000 05 NLH: . 051 04
N3C: .097 04 N36: . 165 04
20 N86: .999 20 NFC: . 045 04
,,.'
NL.T:
20 NAX:
N8X-
NBH:
NOH:
20 N2H: .028 04
o999
0P4 N8H:
1\17C:
NE X:
04 NT2:
8. 9 04
20 N1H:
07 0)4
04
012
C) 1
NMH
016 04
99. 9 20 N7T,
92. 9 04 NDT:
i8. .(04 NLT: 96. 8 04 NMT:
74. 04 N2X:
75. 04 N3X:
2q'
73. 04 NEX:
7y::O. 04 NFX:
75. 04 NLX:
04 N G'::
42. 04
1 /%?, 04
N4R: "-" 99 2,'C NKrR:
N:
:'' 3:- NON: 9.
N7H:
NDH:
:
97.
9.
N3H:
49. 04 NT2: 179. 04 NT1:
10.
9. 9 04 NGS: . 039 '04 NIT: 92. 1
20 N7T: 93. 9 04 N8T: 99. 9
92.-- 04 NDT:
. 0 04 NET: 95. 3
9'7.
04 NMT: 90. 8 04 NNT: 100. 0
'75. 04 N3X: 85. 04 N6X: 999.
73. 04 ND::X: 109. 04 NCX:
76.
78. 04 NMX: 82.
78. 04 NLX:
42. 04 NC U: 1. '9 04 NTJ: 49. 6
'-. 9'
20 N:::' 9. 99 20
O4 N8H:
04. NEH:
. 011 04
04
04
04
04
04
20
04
04
04
04
04
04
20
04
04
04
06
06
04
04
-108TABLE A.1.2
09: 4
20
. .:.-:S:5 04
04
. 078 04
NON:
N7H:
NDH:
NMH:
N7C::
NF, :
N1H:
03 04
N.H:
999
J
20 NAH:
105 04 NFH:
NEH:
NNH: . 0: 9 04 NOH:
04 N76: . 03.3 04 N8C:
04 NGC:: * 000 04 NG6:
* 079
o,.
49. 04 NT2:
NGi :
9
'77.
20
04
7.'-.
04 NI' :
Nr X :
NHIEX'
NO~X
N4Fr%:
Nk- N'
20
N1 H-1
N77H
'. 014
:)_:4 )04 NH:H
NHR,;'
7.9'
4
C t,
04 NEH:
04 NNH:
04 N76,:
NMH:
N7C::
NF/
0, 4 04
::
NG2:
0(4
-. 4 04
N=:T·
20
98-: 4
12t1
77.
79.
NEX
NO X
N7'-I
NDH
NMH:
0
N7:
:
NGT
NI X
NE: X-
NEX'
N<R:
:)4 NH:
",0 NAH
(04 NFH:
4.?
..005
i1591
.
04
NOWH:
04
NCE:::
04 NGI:
49. 04 NT2:
S. ? 0(4 NGS:
NT::
20 N7T
C,-9
0(4 NilT:
NC:T' 6.
18
04 NMT:
04 N3X:
73.
NE:X:
78. 04 NLX
NG?::
N4FR:
04
04 NO1:
04
--j'?
N: H:
NEH:
NNH: .
NGCr::
NTE::
04 NGiJ:
42.
N.H:
1,'1
04 N7,:
0)1 .59
4
85. 04 N6 X: 999. 20 N7X: 80.
74.
20 NC:X: 76. 04 NDX:
76.
79. 04 NMX: 82. 04 NNX:
04 NTJ: 50. 6 04 NTK: 240.
1. 9'
04 NFX:
04
0(77 04
-:,
Nr3T
N3X:
C)4
2(
()4
1:35
NO2
91. 2
0:7 NAYX:
04
NC 1'
NF6
9. '9',' 20
04 NLT
()4
NHR:
04
9
0(20
C
NF:::
9.
C04
. 100 04
.999 20
305 04
179. 04
038 04
93. 5 04
. 0 04
91. 2 04
84. 04
999. 20
79. 04
04
1. 99
146
. 116
()4
NOH:
N3fC:
NO6:
04
NO ;:
999
2.91
04 NT2: 179.
... ) NK'H:
04
06
06
04
04
04 N36:. . 080 04
999 20 NFC: . 036 04
NOC:: . 021 04 N06: . 097 04
NT1:
9. 04 NG3: 121. 04
N3C :
.037
N86:
.
NiT: 91. 7
N8T: 99. 9
NET: 95. 3
NNT: 100. 0
N6X: 999.
NCX:
NMX:
NTJ:
77.
79.
50.
04 N2T: 99. 9 20
20
NAT:
99. 8
04
04
04 NFT: 100.
04 NOT: 96. 6 04
20
04
04
04
N7 X: 80.
NDX:
74.
NNX:
74.
NTK: 236.
06
06
04
04
121 04 N6H: . 999 20
04
04 NGH:
04
04 N3C:
0.44 04 N36: . 083 04
20 N86: . 999 20 NFC: . 026 04
04 NOC: . 025 04 N06: . 100 04
04 NT1:
9. 04 N03: 121. 04
04 NIT: 91. 4 04 N2T: 100. 0 04
04 N8T: 99. 9 20 NAT: 99. 8 04
039
. 999 20 NCH: . 063
. 000 05 NLH: . 041
'-7. 4 04 N:,T: ?9. 9 20! N7T: 93. 5
'??. 9 2i ) NC;T: ' 2. '7 04- NDT:
.0 04 NET: 95. 3
T:: 2 0(4 NLT
6. 6 04 NMT: 90. O 04 NNT: 100. 0
7 6,
04 N2X: 74. 0(4 N3X:
84. 04 N6X: 999.
.. )( N AX
7:3:.
04 NLIBX
20 NC:X:
78.
7' -:'. 04 NF:
77
(04 NL X:
77. 04 NMX:
78.
C'4. Nf)'9
42 04 NGU. 1. 99 04 NTJ: 47. 1
.., 1 ....:?
. 0')4 N4R
04
9. 99 20
NFH:
4'.-.,'.
04
20 N3H: . 109 04 N6H: . 999 O20
999 20 NCH: . 035 04
132 04 NGH: .000 05 NLH: . 043 04
04 N2H; .02/, C.)4 N3H:
20! NAH:
115 04 NBH:
04
20
. 062 04 NBH:
04
1000
04
20
9C
8 04
035
04 NG3: 121.
04 N2T: 99. 9
20 NAT: 97. 4
04 NFT: 100. '0
NNT: 100. 0 04 NOT: 96. 4
NMT:
71. 04 NE:X:
77. 04 NLX:
42. 04 NGi :
75.' 04 N2X:
NIX:
09.:44
NGIC::
NG1i:
97. 4 04 N':T:
N3-:T:
7/:.
NAX:
NFX:
04
.,
179.
:-:.", 04
I9:. 4 04 NLT:
75. 04 N2X:
N IR.X :
.999 20 N3H: . 110 04 N6H: . 999 20
. 053 04 NBH: . 999 20 NCH: .038 04
. 178 04 NGH: . 000 05 NLH: .052 04
. 090 04 N3C: . 050 04 N36: . 087 04
. 999 20 N86: . 999 20 NFC: .041 04
. 300 04 NOC: . 022 04 N06: . 096 04
04 NT1:
9.
. 038 04 N1T: 91. 6
N7T: 93. 7 04 N8T: 99. 9
.0 04 NET: 95. 3
20 NC:T: 92. 7 )04 NDT:
04
NS,:: -3. 4 04 NT:--::
04 N6T:
N-_-:T: 97.
NE:T:
NOT:
N2H:
..
9
/
20
04
04
20
04
04
04
NFT: 100. 0 04
NOT: 96. 6 04
N7X:
82.
NDX:
73.
NNX:
75.
NTK: 236.
06
06
04
04
-1U9TABLE
A.1.2
im~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
09: 46 NON: 9. 99 20 N1H: . 021 04 N2H: . 026 04
.,._, 04 N8H: . 999
20 NAH: . Q80 04
N7H:
119 04
NDH: * 03. 04 NEH: . 120 04 NFH:
. 079 04 NNH:. 039 04 NOH: . 105 04
NMH:
N7C:
NFL:
* 012 04 N76: . 035
)06504 NOC: . 009
6:9. 04
NC 2
NO1:
-3. 4 04 NT8:
49.
8. 9
7. 8 04 NU'T: 100.
NET. 100. 0 00 NCT: 98. 4
N3T
NGT:
NIX
97. 4 04 NLT: 9$8 4
74. 04 N2X:
75.
99'.-, 20
N8X:
80
04
78$C.
04
NEX:
NCX :
09:
48
NAX:
74.
NFX:
N0G:
76.
42.
NHR:
9 1?-.'04 N4FR' 9. 9
NONl:
.
C19
N7H
NDH:
NMH:
* 077
N7'
NF6:
NG2:
. 01:3
, O
1
68.
NS8: -3. 4
N3T: 9:8. 0
NET: 9. 9
NGT:
N1X
97. 4
74.
N: X'
NEX:
80.
N.0X:
NH:
9. C)9
09:0
' NON:9.
20()
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
20
04
04
20
04
04
04
NCGC:
NG 1:
NT8:
N6T:
NC:T:
NLT:
N2X:
NAX:
NFX:
NO9:
N4R:
99 20 N1H:
04
053 04
NMH:
Q079 04
N7C::
.012 04
NF -: 081 04
NG2:
68. 04
-3. 4 04
N3T: 97. 2 04
NE:T: 97. 4 04
NGT:
97. 4 04
74. 04
NIX:
NSX:
20
77. 04
NEX:
79. 04
C'.99- 04
I\IHEs:
N7H:
NDH:
N1H:
N8H:
NEH:
NNH:
N7/:,:
N8H:
NEH:
NNH:
N76:
NOC:
NG1:
NT8:
N6T:
75.
74.
77.
42.
9. 98
2,C
N<R:
NGH: .000
05 NLH: .045
04
9°99 20
. 026 04
. 065 04
N3H:
NBH:
. 150 04 N6H: . 999 20
. 999 20 NCH: .040 04
.000 05 NLH: .051 04
. 45 04 N36: . 091 04
.121 04 NGH:
.111 04 N3C:
999 20 N86: . 999 20
285 04 NOC: . 021 04
10. 04
179. 04 NT 1:
039 04 N1T: 93. 3 04
20 N7T: 95. 7 04 N8T: 99. 9 20
.0 04 NET: 95. 8 04
04 NDT:
04 NMT: 90. 4 04 NNT: 100. 0 04
)04N3X:
85. 04 N6X: 999. 20
04 NBX: 999. 20 NCX: 75. 04
77. 04 NMX: 82. 04
04 NLX:
04 NOU: 1. 99 04 NTJ: 48. 7 04
NKR: 9. 99 20
019 04
N2H: . 026
20 NAH: 080
104 04 NFH: . 176
0.42 04 NOH: . 104
.033 04
004
.
04
49.
NBH: . 999 20 NCH: .049 04
N3C: . 049 04 N36: .088 04
04 NC:
999 20 N86: . 999 20 NFC: . 036 04
04 NGk6: .295 04 NOC: . 020 04 N06: .099 04
04 NT2: 179. 04 NTI1:
10. 04 N03: 121. 04
04 NOS: .040 04 N1T: 95. 7 04 N2T: 100. O 04
07 N7T: 95. 7 04 N8T: 99. 9 20 NAT: 99. 6 04
. 0 04 NET: 95. 3 04 NFT: 100. O0 04
04 NDT
04 NMT: 90. 6 04 NNT: 100. 0 04 NOT: 96. 4 04
04 N3X: 83. 04 N6X: 999. 20 N7X: 80. 06
04 NEX: 999; 20 NCX: 77. 04 NDX: 71. 06
77. 04
77. 04 NMX:
80. 04 NNX:
04 NLX:
04 NCiIU: 1. 99 04 NTJ: 48. 7 04 NTK: 236. 04
. 021 04 N2H:
. 999 20 NAH:
. 113 04 NFH:
. 040 04 NOH:
034 04 NSC:
*003 04 NG6:
04 NT2:
8. 9 04 NOS:
98. 2
97. 8
N3H: . 129 04 N6H: .999 20
N8C:
NG6:
04 NT2:
8.9P 04 NGS:
99. 9 20 N7T:
.98. 4 04 NDT:
04
04
04
04
· 999
20
.285 04
179. 04
N3H: .119
NBH:
N3C:
N86:
NOC:
NT1:
. 038 04 NIT:
NFC: .034 04
N06: .098 04
NG3:
121.
04
N2T: 99. 6 04
NAT: 99. 6 04
NFT: 100. 0 04
NOT: 98. 6 04
N7X: 80. 06
NDX: 71. 06
NNX: 77. 04
NTK: 236. 04
04 N6H: . 999 20
. 999 20
NCH: .054
04
. 0b0 05 NLH: . 053 04
. 046 04 N36: . 087 04
. 999 20 NFC: . 049
04
04 N06: . 097 04
9. 04 NG3: 121. 04
93. 3 04 N2T: 98. 4 04
· 020
95. 7 04 N8T: 99. 9 20 NAT: 99. 6 04
.0 04 NET: 96. 0 04 NFT: 100. O0 04
NLT: 97. 8 04 NMT: 90. 8 04 NNT: 100. 0 04 NOT: 98. 6 04
N2X:
76. 04 N3X:
83. 04 N6X: 999. 20 N7X: 81. 06
NAX:
71. 04 NBX: 999. 20 NCX:
75.
04 NDX: 72. 06
NCT:
78. 04 NLX: 78. 04 NMX: 80. 04 NNX: 76.
41. 04( NGIJ: 1. 99 04 NTJ: 49. 6 04 NTK: 236.
N4R: 9. 99
NK.R: 9. 99 20
NFX:
NO.i:
.,
04
04
-110TABLE A.1.3
r 'Vl
tlONUNTAIRESEARCH
i. I PSEURG..
PA.
+
TU'-! ?COGY
I .TE
4i4R W19
I3
":(;:?ID VALUES REPiES,EII'Ir WIND
E
tLE'INGTON.
MASSACHUSETTS 02173
1(.-4
ISTRIBUTION
IN PERCENT***
I
-111-
TABLE A.1.3
s--r ,,
1,)q~I'St?
Th:.P,
'
-"
Th;l-r l~Th!t.ENHfTAcL
",it. ;.' I D VAiLUi3
TECH:>
!LOGY
RE¶M7 AEc1i*
R -....-..
-·
L?.XI 'tNGTON. MASSACHlUSETTS
'SIND UtISTI'R-fUiUIlI
02173
IN PERCENT>**
OVER
17.9
10
Ii..+
7.
4.$O.
1
10
1+TO
10
10
f
I
F
-112-
TABLE A.1.3
YNV IRf-t.Ot'
.NTAL
* t'o l
_i''-,G
'*4Gi:L)J
RESEARCH
+
TECHFNOLOf,Y
L{7XINGTON.
PA. i., S,~ *t
.-.I O';!. FS 1 S5-54
VALUES EPRESENT WIND DISTRiBUTION
MASSACHUSETTS
02173
IN PERCENT**
!
-113TABLE A.1.3
LEXINGTON.
MASSACHUSETTS
tI: lv!RONMENTAL RESEARCH + TECFlKOLt OGY
SE 1950 PERCENT
' ! P..PS3URG.PA.
A UMN WITD
WINO DISTRIBUTION
IN PERCE-NT***
<4;1Z0}DVA..UEfS REPRESi-,T
02173
OVR
17.
21.
rl3
7TO :I.
0
11.S.
7. S. 10 I0.
4. O
0.
T10
TO
,.
3.
-114-
TABLE A.1.3
-i.N'!RONMENTALRESARC
+ TECHNOLOGY
LEXINGTON.
,it!rIPSilURG, PA.. ANNtl(Jt W1I
NDR;:SE 1350-54
-:',
MASSACHUSETTS
02173
RID VALUES REPRES2. T WIND OiSTRIBU'ITION IN PERCENT*-*
OVEl
27.0
O10
I1..
0T
7. l0 TO
4.0+ 10
a. . 10
B
-115TABLE A.1.3
' IVIRONMEENTALRESEARCH + TL:t!l?,OLOGY LEXINGTON,
LTT;NA., PA. . WINTER
NWIROFO!E349- 4
*'rRID
VALUES REFPESENT W1NC)0
DISTRi2; UJTION IN
MASSACHUSETTS 02173
ERCENT*
*
B
-116TABLE A.1.3
t VIRONMENTAL RESEARCH + TECHNOLOGY LEXINGTON. MASSACHUSETTS 02173
.TO)NA. PA.,
A
SPRING WINDROSE 1949-54
('"RI1
VALUES REPRESMENT WIND DISTRIBUTION
IN PERCENT***
-117TABLE A.1.3
LEXINGTON. MASSACHiUSETTS 02173
'NIRONMENTAL RESEARCH + TEClNOLOGY
.L'ti'O,!.
PA., SUMiER WINOROSE 949~-54
*#'
.P,1D VALUES REPRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN PERCENT#**
I
-118-
TABLE A.1.3
ESEARC:- + T-(.:t'I,;OLOGY
LEXINGT,'I,
. TC.)NA, PA.
AU'lIJTl. tJINO!(.":. 15!'3,:
"i *[)l
VALUESNT
WEiErNr D ISTS[I IJTION
IN
F jVI1?ON,"'ENTAL
MASSACHUSETTS
.
PERCENT * 4
021'73
.
I
:i
-119TABLE A.1.3
iNVIIRONMENTAL RESEARCH , TECHNCLOGY LEX IiNGTON. MHA1S3ACHUSETTS 02173
\LTIONA.
·4 i'()RlO
PA.. ANNUAL WIINOI.OSE 191'9-54
VALUES REPRESENIT WI O uSTRI
UTrIO. I IN
PERC' ,NT**
*
-120-
ENVIRONMENTAL
RESEARCH + TECHNOLOGY
PI'TTSBURGH, PA. .
ANUAL
LEXINGTON.
MASSACHUSETTS
STAR WINOROSE 1965-69
#*'GRID VALUES REPRESENTWIND DISTRIBUTION
TAB
L E
IN PERCENT***
A.1.3
02173
-121-
LEXINGTON.
fNVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH + TECHNOLOGY
F'ITTSBURGH.
PA.,
WINTER STAR WINDROSE 1965-69
4**GRID VALUES REPRESENTWIND DISTRIBUTION
TABLE
MASSACHUSETTS
IN PERCENT***
A.1.3
02173
-122-
L.NVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH + TECHNOLOGY LEXINGTON. MASSACHUSETTS 02173
PITTSBURGHI PA.. SPRING STAR WINDROSE 1965-69
i'**GRIO VALUES REPRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION
IN PERCENT***
T
A B L E
A.1.3
-123-
E,!VIRONMENTAL RESEARCH + TECHNOLOGY LEXINGTON.
PTTSBURGH. PA.. SUMMER STAR WINDROSE 1965-69
l*IGRIDVALUES REPRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION
T A B L E
MASSACHUSETTS 02173
IN PERCENTA*E
A.1.3
-124-
-N'IRONMENTAL RESEARCH + TECHNOLOGY LEXINGTON.
MASSACHUSETTS 02173
'Ii TSBURGH. PA.
AUTlUWN STAR WINDROSE 19S5-69
* *GRID
VALUES REPRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION
IN PERCENT***
T A B L E
A.1.
3
-125TABLE A.1.4
Pittsburgh
Mixing Depth Data*
Annual
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Mixing Layer Depth
(Mornings)
540 m
660 m
595 m
395 m
510 m
Mixing Layer Depth
(Afternoons)
1550 m
1000 m
1900 m
1900 m
1400 m
Average Wind Speed
Through Mixing Layer
(Mornings)
5.lm/s
6.5m/s
5.9m/s
3.5m/s
Average Wind Speed
Through Mixing Layer
(Afternoons)
7.lm/s
8.0m/s
8.4m/s
5.6m/s
4.5m/s
6.3m/s
Two Day Duration Episodes(5 year data)
Mixing Height
m
Wind Speed
Episodes
Episode Days
Season
m/s
500
500
500
2
0
0
4
1
3
3
1000
1000
1000
1500
1500
1500
2000
2000
2000
2
0
0
4
6
6
16
10
29
6
2
0
0
4
16
36
39
98
6
2
1
2
4
32
77
6
81
225
-w
w
w
w
a
a
su
a
a
Five Day Duration Episodes(5 year data)
Mixing
m
IIeight
Wind Speed
m/s
500
500
1000
1000
1500
4
1500
6
4
2000
2000
6
4
6
4
6
*Source:[olzworth,(l)]
Episodes
0
0
0
Epispode Days
0
0
0
0
5
0
2
11
0
5
0
31
1
Season
w
a
-126-
Chestnut Ridge AIRMAPNetwork
A.2
The Chestnut Ridge AIRMAPnetwork consists of three major components:
1)
Sensors and station
2)
Telecommunication system
3)
Central facility computers and meteorological data
facilities
acquisition equipment.
A.2.1
Sensors and Station Facilities
For S2
measurements, the AIRPJAPsystem uses the
metric total sulfur sensor with automatic calibration,
cooling, and hydrogen shut-off options.
Meloy
flame
photo-
thermoelectric
These sensors have been modified
by ERT so that initiation of the calibration cycle, sensing of flameouts,
and reignitionof the hydrogen flame are all
central computer.
is used.
performed remotely by the
For NO/NO 2 the Thermo-Electron chemiluminescent sensor
For wind speed, wind direction, temperature, and temperature
differential, CLIMET sensors are used.
The sulfur and nitrogen sensors, together with the meteorological
amplifiers and telUmietryelectronics, are operated in air conditioned,
temperature-controlled enclosures.
These enclosures are maintained near
680 F throughout the year.
The complete Chestnut Ridge network comprises sixteen sites, as is
shown in Figure A.2.1.
Each is equipped with a Meloy sulfur analyzer and
a coefficient-of-haze (COH) analyzer.
chemiluminescent sensors for NO/NOx.
at the Penn View site
follows:
on the crest
Six of the sites have Thermo-Electron
The 300-,footmeteorological tower
of Chestnut Ridge is instrumented
as
at the 33-foot level, wind speed wind direction, and temperature;
at the 150-foot level, temperature difference from the 33-foot level; and
-127-
.0..;-.-
NETWORKS
Keystone
^P6
....
,wo~u ... .-
u' :
l..
rr
4W~a·
}tA¢s
:
ie~o
R
w
Conemaugh
Seward
'W
2--
K1
i,,
L's>H4-
?
P1
C9rdoerC
9-
'
_
·
,
3W"z.
SKIMEETER.
..
'
Homer City
'. .t
.&k
F,.
AUGI$
RAIN
i
K
s,+;f *tu
werP/d;~?fil
, ,.
7i
1.....
>
lwly
i.RY8' a!
.
-
AN..
PL1
POWR
"....K1
CerOURCE
I ... SG
S1S02'
H1
~
' . · " ..
4
'
32
0
L
usKILOMETERS
A
3rdy
KM
.owI~j/
Station Designation
ERT
Penelec
Name
Old Penelec
ERT
Penelec
Name
Old Penelec
C1
C3
C2
S3
1
2
3
6
Ci
P5
C2
P4
West Fair feld
Florence Substation
Laurel Ridge
Armagh
H5
H6
H7
H2/T2
D
E
F
G
P2
H1
P1
H2
Penn Run
Brush Valley
Liggett
Penn View
7
Si
Gas
Kl
L
K1
Creekside
Si
HI
H3
H4
A
B
C
P3
H3
H4
K3
K4
K2
M
N
0
K3
P6
K2
Girdy
Keystone
Pa rkwood
Center
Luciusboro
Lewisville
Lodge
Rustic
Dam
-128-
a bivane.
The processing of the output from the bivane requires a
major revision of the AIRMAP program, which has not yet been implemented.
Ten of the sixteen SO 2 monitoring stations of the Chestnut Ridge
AIRMAP network have been operating in the real-time mode since 1 June
1974.
Three stations came on line shortly thereafter in June.
remaining three came on in July.
The
The seventeenth planned S02 monitor,
originally intended for location in Seward, Pennsylvania, was dropped
from the system because of Penelec's difficulty in finding a site.
Siting difficulties also caused the second meteorological tower to
be eliminated.
Because of the union construction problems mentioned
in Section 2.0.1 above, the meteorological tower at the Penn View site
was not brought on line and calibrated until August 16.
Consequently no
hourly averaged meteorological data has been available as model input,
nor has the low-level thermal stratification been measured.
A.2.2
AIRMAP Telecommunications Systems
The AIRMAP telecommunications system permits the computer at ERT
AIRMAP Central to acquire data and status information from each of the
air quality analyzers and meteorological instruments
control
functions at remote locations.
and to initiate
In addition, it provides for
remote printing of system-generated information obtained from the acquired data.
The link between AIRMAP Central in Lexington, Mass. and
tiheinstrument sites consists of a set of telephone lines and transponders which convert digital circuit logic levels to other tones for
transmission and back to logic voltage levels upon reception.
-129The telephone lines used are unconditioned voice grade, private
line data channels.
They have sufficient noise immunity so that data
loss from cross-talk and random noise from the transmission lines has
been negligible.
Total costs, including central station termination
charges, also favor using these lines.
Attenuation due to line length
is highly compensated by the Bell System, and loading effects are also
compensated
so that a large number
of terminals
single computer data port (limited by noise).
can be connected
to a
The current system uses
shared telephone circuits in that ten or more remote instrument sites
can be connected to a single telephone line.
Telemetry equipment for the AIRMAP System was designed jointly at
ERT and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
one transponder.
Each site has
Up to 16.separate voltage-producing devices (instruments)
can be connected to this interface.
The central computer sends out a
coded binary word to which only one transponder responds.
Part of
that binary word also designates one of the 16 input channels to the
transponder.
The transponder responds by opening the channel to the de-
sired device and for some designated period of time, the signal from that
device is sampled by the AIRMAP Central computer.
The transponder logic is very general and is used without modification to control and transmit all output to remote teletypes.
These tele-
typewriter outputs can be transmitted on the same dedicated lines as the
sensors.
Another important feature of the transponders is that they also
transmit the setting of three sense switches that indicate to the AIRMAP
Central computer exactly what state the analyzer is in, be it normal,
calibrate test, etc.
This allows erroneous values to be excluded from the
-130statistics.
Because of the real-time control features of the ERT telemetry
system,
the field operation and maintenance personnel hate the following
increased capabilities:
1)
Ability to evaluate current status of analyzers without
visiting each site (thus, enabling maintenance personnel
to visit stations that have malfunctioning sensors as
fast as possible)
2)
Ability to spot instrument malfunctions that occur after
a site has been visited during a given work day
3)
Ability to activate a dynamic calibration cycle at any time
4)
Ability through computer control to automatically reignite
flameouts on any Meloy instrument within the 1-minute interrogation cycle.
In addition, the implementation of an automatic rezero capability in the
real-time system tends to restrict zero baseline drifts to an absolute
minimum.
All of these features of the ERT telemetry system reduce the
amount of unnecessary lost data and thus increase the total data capture
rate.
A.2.3.
AIRMAP Central: Computers and Meteorological Data
Acquisition Equipment
The heart of AIRMAP Central consists of two identically configured
32K-word memory Data General computers.
The reasons for twosuch units are:
(1) complete redundancy can be provided if one unit should fail for any
reason, (2) programming and off-line data processing can be accomplished
with the computer that is not gathering data and (3) the second computer
-131is available for running the ERT air quality prediction models.
Both computers operate from a real-time operating system, meaning that
they can conduct many tasks simultaneously, greatly increasing the efficiency
of both machines.
priority
First priority is the data interrogation routine. Second
is processing
of the data as it comes
in to analyze
and calib-
rate the raw data and compute short-, intermediate-, and long-term averages and other statistics.
The third level of priority is to transmit di-
gested data to remote readout sites.
satisfied,
up to 13 other
After these three tasks have been
levels of priority
can be specified.
Reliability
of the ERT real-time AIRMAP system is demonstrated by the fact that real-time
data capture averaged 91.5% for the year 1973 for all sensors in the operational networks.
Weather data are continuously supplied to AIRMAP Central by means
of a Service "A" weather teletype,
which transmits weather observations at
least once each hour from more than 200 cities
Western Union Service
forecasts;
"C" teletype,
which sends upper air
and a national weather facsimile
of the latest
in the United States; a
observations
and
machine, which produces copies
surface and upper air charts and forecast maps. These weather
data are used for the analysis of air quality
as a function of meteor-
ological conditions and as input to the predictions of air quality.
-132-
A.3
CONTROL
This Appendix contains general samples of the data relevant to the
control strategy.
In all cases the material here is backed up in depth
by more precise information.
The information contained here is given
only as an indication of the magnitudes of the important parameters.
Overall System
Table A.3.1 on the next three pages shows the sizes, types and
capacities of all the units involved in GPU (the service corporation
which owns Penelec).
The following two pages show the locations of
these plants on a map of the GPU system.
This information is important
because the operation of the GPU system is coordinated at the power pool
level (Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland) and so all of these plants, and the
others in PJM as well, are available for picking up the load shifted
from the facilities concerned.
The four plants specifically included
in this project comprise the largest complex of coal-burning power
stations in the United States.
The ownership of these generating stations,
along with some general characteristics are listed below in Table A.3.2.
-133TABLE A.3.1
GPU SERVICE CORPORATION
System Capacity
As of June 1, 1974
Station (Coal, Gas or Oil Fired)
Station (Coal, Gas or Oil Fired)
Net Capability (Mw)
Unit
Summer
Winter
Shawville
1
116
2
3
4
Homer City
1
2
Net Capability (Mw)
Unit
Summer Winter
Gilbert
123
172
172
121
128
178
178
583
605
Werner
1-2-3-5
4
Seward
3-4
5
1
2
46
72
73
119
300
300
1
3
15
4
58
300
300
600
'6o'o
90
82
1-2-3
4
5
28
28
'i8
110
79
81
137
218
Keystone
40
Conemaugh
136
215
,arren
45
3
117
Sayreville
Front Street
1-2
40
40
80
1
2
40
17
17
15
88
60
94
84
122
123
329
126
127
373
137
136
273
137
136
273
90
140
140
1
2
80
280
I
Saxton
Williamsburg
5
Portland
2
Crawford
Titus
1-2-3-4
1
3
Eyler
35
2-3
30
31
158
156
246
246
Total Coal, Gas or
Oil Fired
o402
Station (Nuclear)
111
113
Oyster Creek
78
80
78
8O
78
80
715
54
1
3547
3597
620
650
-134TABLE A.3.1
Station (Combustion Turbine)
.-- Station (Combustion Turbine)
Net Capability (Mw)
Winter
Unit
Summer
Net Capability (Mw)
Unit
Summer
Winter
Blossburg
1
20
27
Wayne
54
73
Warren
55
73
1
21
2
21
3
21
27
27
27
Hunterstown
Glen Gardner
A-1
A-2
A-3
A-4
B-5
B-6
B-7
B-8
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
19-8
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
216'
-6Sayreville
Portland
3
4
15
21
3
Titus
4
5
15
16
31
19
27
C-1
C-2
C-3
-%-g
c-4
19
20
39
Orrtanna
1
21
27
Hamilton
1
21
27
Shawnee
1
21
27
Tolna
1
21
21
27
27
1
21
2
21
27
27
Riegel
C-1
22
28
Gilbert
C-1
C-2
C-3
C-4
25
32
25
25
25
56
32
32
2
Mountain
4
5
6
7
56
56
56
32
72
72
72
72
71T
Werner
C-1
C-2
C-3
C-4
Total Combustion
Turbines
53
73
53
73
53
53
212
73
292
53
73
53
73
53
53
212
73
292
1344
1772
73
73
- IjTABLE A.3.1
-
Station (Hydro - Conventional or P.S.)
Station (Diesel)
Net Capability (Mw)
Winter
Summer
Unit
Net Capability (Mw)
Winter
Summer
Unit
Shawville
Homer City
5
4
5
6
Benton
2
1
Yards Creek
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
6
6
1
1
1
1
3
3
2
2
2
Seneca
55
55
55
55
55
76
76
1
9
2
9
9
9
9
1)
1
2)
3)
1
Piney
2
3
10
27
Keystone
3-4-5-6
2
2
Conemaugh
A-B-C-D
2
2
1
2
Deep Creek
Total Diesel
17
17
York Haven
Total GPU System
PP&L Purchase - 6/1/74
ME
JC
EDJ
6/1/74
9
10
9
IT
19
296
302
5824
6338
190
0
6014
6338
20 Units
Total Hydro Conventional & P.S.
PN
9
1923
1559
2532
1988
1460
2890
I Jidl--
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-138-
TABLE A.3.2
PLANT CAPACITIES AND ENTITLEMENTS
(1973 ELECTRICAL WORLD-DIRECTORY OF ELECTRIC UTILITIES)
KEYSTONE - Shelocta, Pa.
PSE&G
BG&E
PECO
JCP&L
PP&L
DELMARVA
ACEC
24.7%
19.9
19.9
427,565 Kw
344,000
344,000
273,000
231,000
64,306
44,460
15.8
13.4
3.7
2.6
PLANT TOTAL CAPACITY
Unit
1
1,728,331
9698 Btu/kwh
900,000
KWi
900,000
KW)
NOMINAL (LAPPES)
Unit 2
9864
I!
CONEMAUGH - Huff, Pa. (On Conemaugh River)
PSE&G
PECO
METED
PP&L
421,200
352,000
308,000
213,000
180,000
166,100
64,482
62,630
BG&E
PEPCO
ACEC
DELMARVA
PLANT TOTAL CAPACITY
Unit
1
Kw
1,767,612
900,000)
9698 Btu/kwh
) NOMINAL (LAPPES)
Unit 2
9864
II
900,000)
HOMER CITY- Homer City, Pa.
PENELEC
NYSE&G CORP.
659,700 KW
659,700
50%
50
PLANT TOTAL CAPACITY
Unit
1,319,400
640,000 KW|
10,251 Btu/kwh
1
NOMINAL (LAPPES)
Unit 2
10,112
II
640,000 KW
SEWARD- Seward, Pa.
100%
PENELEC
222,000 KW
PLANT TOTAL CAPACITY
Units 2-3-4
Unit 5
222,000
85,000 KW
9993 Btu/kwh
137,000 KW
-139-
ACEC - Atlantic City Electric Co. - NJ
BG&E - Baltimore Gas & Electric - Ma
DELMARVA - Delaware-Maryland-Virginia Power Co. - Del.
JCP&L - Jersey CentraT-Power & Light - NJ
METED - Metropolitan Edison - Pa.
NYSE&G Corp. - N.Y. State Electricity & Gas Corp.
PECO - Philadelphia Electric Co. - Pa.
PENELEC - Pennsylvania Electric Co. - Pa.
PEPCO - Pittsburgh Electric Power Co. -Pa.
PP&L - Pennsylvania Power & Light - Pa.
PSE&G - Public Service Electric and Gas - NJ
Fuel Characteristics and Processing
A previous study (LAPPES) shows some typical data on the variations of
the coal characteristics from a given plant.
These variations are still
evident in the operation of the plants.
Keystone Station
,4arcn 1968 Series
Moisture
(%)
3.20
Volatile Matter (%)
Fixed Carbon (%)
29.94
48.08
16.66
2.12
12,093
6,718
Ash (%)
Sulfur (%)
Btu per Pound
Calories per Gram
Keystone Station
July 1968 Series
Moisture (%
Volatile Matter (%)
Fixed Carbon (%)
Ash (%)
Sulfur (%)
Stu per Pound
Calories per Gram
Keystone Station
May 1968 Series
3.83
29.65
48.67
15.67
2.18
12,081
6,711
Moisture
(%)
Volatile Matter (%)
Fixed Carbon (%)
Ash (%)
Sulfur (%)
Btu per Pound
Calories per Gram
Keystone Station
October 1968 Series
Moisture
Volatile Matter (%)
Fixed Carbon (%)
Ash
(%)
Sulfur
(%)
Btu per Pound
Calories per Gram
3.32
30.19
47.81
16.48
2.20
12,053
6,695
3.72
29.27
47.36
17.29
2.36
11,847
6,581
The variation of the sulfur percent, which is generally normalized
to account for variation in Btu per pound, is not a gradual change.
In
fact, the percent sulfur can vary by a factor of three from one lump of
coal to the next.
Since utilities must stay below standards by the amount
of uncertainty they have in their measurements, there are millions of dollars
lost.
Nuclear metering methods are underway to eventually yield a contin-
uous readout of the sulfur content of the incoming coals.
-140There is also significant variation in coal characteristics from
one plant to the next at the same point in time.
TABLE A.3.3
STATION
TONS
APRIL 1974
Weiahted Averaae
~ ~ ~~~~~~~..
BTU
MOISTURE
ASH
KEYSTONE
393,981
11,902
2.81
18.95
2.16
CONEMAUGH
252,598
11,426
5.23
18.49
2.29
HOMER CITY
158,951
11,762
3.92
19.30
2.29
SHAWVILLE
170,437
12,233
5.78
14.27
2.55
SEWARD
45,087
12,349
3.28
16.51
2.77
FRONT ST.
36,919
12,185
4.78
13.61
2.58
WARREN
23,998
11 ,638
7.25
13.65
2.06
5,797
12,122
7.20
13.14
2.71
11,727
12,925
3.93
12.75
1.63
_
WMBG
SAXTON_
_ --
_j
a
:
SULFUR
This type of information is kept for each plant and each coal shipper
(sometimes as many as six) to each plant.
This data is collected to check
the contracted levels of sulfur, and is readily available on a daily and
monthly basis.
To effect fuel switching at any plant, a utility could maintain a clean
coal stockpile, using either specially bought and trucked coal ormaintaining a coal-cleaning plant at one point and shipping around that cleaned
coal.
The clean piles presently (Aug. 26, 1974) available include:
Homer City
34,242
Keystone
Connemaugh
Seward
tons
1.94%S
3.4 day supply
45,673 tons
1.39%
3.0
50,078 tons
.92%
(gone)
-
day supply
3.3 day supply
-141-
Once a fuel switch decision is made the clean coal would begin to be
dumped into the bunkers.
The amount of coal already in storage in the
plant's bunker would have to be burned first, with some blending being inevitable.
The total storage of the bunkers, and thus the maximum time for
a fuel switch,
The bunkers
is 8 to 9 hours
might
at all the plants
be as little as half
except
full, with
1 day at Seward.
1/2 to 3/4 as the general
operating range.
The cleanest coal, about .8% sulfur, is termed metallurgical coal
because it is necessary for steel-making processes.
Although this metal-
lurgical coal is an extremely valuable, strategic and costly resource,
some is currently bought by utilities to blend in with coals which the
automatic cutter or grab samples determine are above standard (i.e. will
yield more than 4 lbs. S02 per million Btu heat input or about 2.4%
sulfur on 12,000 Btu coal.)
The costs of coal are elusive numbers due to the blending of different sources and the long-term and utility-owned supplies.
Crude est-
imates yield costs in the range of
3 to 6% sulfur
$15 to $20 per ton
2 to 3
18 to
25
1 to 2
25 to
30
30 to
35
45 to
50
.7 to 1 (western)
Solvent
refined
coal
(future)
with transportation costs of about $2.50 (for local) to $10 (for western)
per ton included.
-142-
Two people can implement the dynamics of the fuel switch, and can
generally be drawn from the on-site operating personnel with an outside
possibility of overtime charges.
There are two means by which sulfur is held in coal: pyritic and
organic.
The pyritic sulfur is in a form of rock which is freeable through
existing "coal cleaning" processes.
the raw coal can be crushed
Since the pyrite is heavier than coal,
and separated
in a bath of material
with
specific gravity between that of coal and pyrite. The cleaning cost can be as
little as $2.40 per ton (10¢/million Btu) for 1.4% sulfur coal.
coal has no pyritic
form.
sulfur
and contains
all of its .8% sulfur
Western
in organic
This .8% is about standard for the organic sulfur content of coal,
and this can be removed only through solvent refining (at about $45 per
ton delivered price some time in the future, when the existing technology
is applied).
All forms of coal cleaning
result
in a loss of a certain
percent of the Btu content of the coal (generally between 4% and 12%).
Power Plant Models
To present a general overview of the types and magnitudes of the
data that is available, information of the
Conemaugh station will be
presented.
Unit 1
9698 Btu/kwh
Unit 2
9864
"
900MW
900MW
Coal consumption
590 metric tons per hour
Cooling towers
2 natural draft, 113 meters tall
The specific loadingcurve foreither Unit 1 or 2 can be modeled as:
-143TABLE A.3.4
Gross
Block
MW
A cost
Bus Bar
Basis $/net MWh
A
heat rate
Btu/net kwh
Cost
Factor
400
7325
600
7500
+
5.35
860
8023
0.713
5.72
1000
8472
+
6.04
4,200 x 1016
2.282
610 x 106
0.713
Start Cost
Spin Cost
5.22
where the cost factor = (fuel cost + incremental maintenance)
times
penalty factor = (.575 + .062)(1.120) = 0.713 and on start cost =
(2.220 + .062)(1.000) = 2.282.
This data is also available in tab-
ulated form:
TABLE A.3.5
EXCERPTS FROM
CONEMAUGH GENERATION STATION
BASIC HEAT INPUT DATA
Gross
MW
Boiler
Input
10 Btu/hr
610
0
Gross
tr
40
Boiler
Input
106 Btu/hr
896
Gross
MW
80
Boiler
Input
106 Btu/hr
1182
Gross
MW
120
Boiler
Input
106 Btu/hr
1463
1
617
41
903
81
1189
121
1475
2
3
624
631
42
43
910
917
82
83
1196
1203
122
123
1482
1489
4
639
44
925
84
1211
124
1497
35
36
37
860
867
875
75
76
77
1146
1153
1161
115
116
117
1432
1439
1447
155
156
157
1718
1725
1733
38
882
78
1168
118
1454
158
1740
39
889
79
1175
119
1461
159
1747
The startup-shutdown rate is 6MW/minute, or 5MW/minute without changing
the normal
ramp control
procedure.
The control
procedures
are the same as
those described for Keystone in the Anerican Power Conference Proceedings of
1964.
4
-141-
Abatement Equipment
The cooling towers on, for instance, the Connemaughplant handle
about 21.2 x 105 liters
of water per minute.
They cool the water from
about 480C to 320C and consumebetween 34,000 and 49,000 liters
per minute
(evaporation loss).
The particulate precipitators normally have a net efficiency of
between 98.2% and 99.9%.
This precipitator efficiency, however, is
closely related to the sulfur content of the emissions.
In particular,
the precipitators work better with more sulfur present.
If the sulfur
content is significantly lower, either from the use of clean fuel or a
scrubber system (if it is used before the precipitators), the efficiency
could drop to 83%!
There is test data available from which the curve of
"sulfur percent in fuel" versus "precipitator
efficiency"
could be drawn.
Preliminarily it would seem to look like this:
FITET. SULFUR CONTENT
---
`---`-
%
-
6
5
4
standard
3
deviation
2
1
.....
90
92
,
94
96
,
98
_ . , PRECIPITATOR
100 EFFICIENCY
FIGURE A.3.2
The curve of ash versus dust loading for the precipitators on this
system
is
Ash (7%) - 3.4(±1.5) = 2.72 loading (GR/SCF).
-141There are several problems with scrubber systems, not the least of
which is the unavailability of good data.
Reliability is a key factor
with good performance in the 70% to 80% availability range and bad from
30% to 40%.
Sulfur removal efficiencies vary around 80%, being generally
in the 60% to 90% range.
The temperature of the emissions can drop from
about 3000 F to about 120cF to 1600 F with a scrubber.
add to groundlevel
concentrations
per kw, 2 to 4 mills/kwh.
at times.
Costs
This can significantly
are about
$50 to $60
The scrubber system for the 650MW Homer City
Unit 3, when it is chosen by Penelec this summer, will be the scrubber
system used in the simulation comparative evaluations.
Power Plant Emissions
There is a procedure by which the temperature of the stack gas can
be changed appreciably.
By the use of baffles, portions of the exhaust
(15% or more) can be made to bypass the air preheaters.
This bypassed
exhaust, then at about 7000 F, will mix with the exhaust coming out of
the air preheater (at about 3000 F).
The loss in plant efficiency of this process is about 1% per 400 F
increase on exiting gas temperature.
To operate and to keep in reliable
operating condition, such facilities would require about $10,000 per year
in labor, equipment and parts.
,
The efficiency of the precipitators with respect to exiting gas
temperature is nearly the same at 300°F and 5500 F.
However, in between
those temperatures there is a significant drop in efficiency.
There might
be an increase in the maintenance cost on precipitators if these control
actions are taken frequently.
The process of temperature modification requires the mobilization
of 3 men, and the maximum effect could be reached at about one hour from
the initiation of the order.
Keystone is a "go-no go" operation with
Tmax not much higher
than 50°F
Homer City has variable controls with a Tmax from 5500 F to possibly
600°F.
After 1976 Tmax will be about 4000 F due to the addition of
other equipment.
Conemaugh is like Homer City except that there are additional problems when the coal is wet in which case the Tmax cannot go much
higher than 3500 F.
Seward has only the typical 15% bypass capability with ATmax = 500 F.
Some of the other emission parameters can be calculated by methods
presented in the LAPPES study, for example,
The stack gas exit velocity in ft per sec is calculated hourly from
the following equation:
Tc
V = 3600 A
s
H20(359) + C02 (359) +
(44)
(8T)
2 (359)
(28)
+ S02(359) + Ae(359)
(29)
(64)
where
ts,+ 460
ta + 460
(A.3.1)
T c = hourly coal consumption in lbs per hr per unit.
A s = stack area
= 581.42
sq ft for Keystone.
t s = hourly
gas temperature
ta = hourly
ambient
leaving
temperature
in
stack
in
F.
F.
460 = conversion to Rankine temperature scale.
3600 = sec per hr.
1120, C
2
, N 2 and S0 2 = series
average
in lbs per lb of coal as
products of combustion.
-141Ae = series average excess air in lbs per lb of coal required
for combustion.
Denominators in parentheses are molecular weights of respective
gaseous constituents in whole grams per mole.
359 = conversion factor to British units calculated as follows:
22.414 liters/mole
28.317
liters ftJI
x
453.9 grams/lb = 359 grams ft3
lb mole
SO2 emission from each unit in tons per hr is calculated hourly be means
of this formula:
(A.3.2)
S0 2 = Tc x % S x 2
2000
where
Tc=
hourly coal consumption in lbs per hr per unit.
% S = series average percent sulfur in fuel.
2 = parts sulfur per parts oxygen in S02.
2000
= lbs per ton.
The parameter, stack heat emission in Btu per sec, is computed from
the following equation:
(A.3.3)
Qh = Tc x % DG x HV x (ts - ta)
356JTF
(tg - ta)
where
Tc = hourly coal consumption in lbs per hr per unit.
% DG = hourly
percent
dry gas loss.
IIV - series average heat value of fuel
ts = hourly
gas temperature
leaving
n Btu per lb.
stack
in
F.
tg = hourly gas temperature leaving air heaters in
ta = hourly ambient temperature in °F.
F.
-141-
Dispatch and Unit Commitment Schedulers
These schedulers are at the PJM interconnection headquarters.
The
system incremental costs are predicted 6 hours in advance and many of
the scheduling decisions are made manually from lookup tables.
For
example, as the load demands come in there is a daily routine for those
plants whichshould come on or go off.
These are generally the next
cheapest facilities, as shown on a lookup table (Table A.3.6).
The
economic dispatcher works within the plan given it by the unit commitment scheduler.
The transmission losses are accounted for with pre-
determined "penalty factors" which are a measure of the distance to the
load centers at any given time of day.
An automated unit commitment scheme which is being set up is shown
in the block diagram, figure A.3.3.
For some simulations the most effective form of the "thermal files" is
the "cost duration data" which is available monthly (Table A.3.7).
Maintenance Scheduling
Maintenance scheduling information on the four plants and the rest
of the Penelec system is collected and tentatively scheduled by Penelec
persons.
1.
Their criteria are:
equipment availability forces it)
None (or very rarelywhen
of the PJM plants are scheduled out from June 1 to September 15.
2.
Because Penelec is winter peaking (vs. PJH1which has a summer peak)
and because parts movement and support services are impossible
over holidays, maintenance is avoided as much as possible during the
September
15 to January
1 period.
-149-
3.
They schedule boiler maintenance every twelve months,-4 to+O
months from the plant supervisor's point of view and-1 to+6
months from the system supervisor's point of view.
Long ex-
tensions are sometimes justified to skip the summer period
(Shawville is scheduled for 15 months of operation,through
1975,for this purpose).
4.
Turbine inspection is every 5 years +0, -1 year.
Extensions
are possible if equipment is unavailable (6 years on Shawville
now).
5.
Due to crew availability constraints, Penelec units should have
minimum overlapping (although they have had as many as 3 out at
one time).
6.
Duration is (3,4,4,4) weeks and (6,8,8,8) weeks on (Seward,
Keystone, Conemaugh, Homer City) for Boiler and Turbine sessions respectively.
The maintenance schedule now in force is given in Table A.3.8.
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-151 -
TELEPROCE SS ING
T:CM
NOTE: ALL
I NAL S
SCHEDULES
ARE SENT
lACK
BE-
MASTER SCHEDULE PROGRAM
FIGURE A.3.3
-152-
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A.4
State Estimation LAPPES Test
The LAPPES data presented in this section represents the input data
to be used for a test of the state estimation, static advection-diffusion
model.
It was decided to use LAPPES data for the following reasons:
1)
it is publically available, validated data; 2) LAPPES included pilot balloon
ascents which can be used to determine upper level wind characteristics for
the grid of states (concentrations); 3) the LAPPES data could be sorted
to find a day with good data capture and minimal terrain effects; 4) the
model test could be prepared without waiting for an ERT data base to be
established; 5) the LAPPES sensors are more dense with respect to a single
plant than the Penelec system and can therefore provide more data in a short
time period.
The LAPPES day chosen for the initial tests is May 1, 1970. (LAPPES
Vol. 3).
A Homer City study day was chosen to partly avoid the more complex
terrain at Connemaugh and Seward, and partly because Penelec's interest in
SCS is greatest at Homer City where SCS is considered to be a control measure
which may help Homer City avoid violating standards between July, 1975 and
the installation of flue gas cleaning equipment in 1976.
May 1, 1970 had good ground level coverage by the
bubblers and the
Jimmy Stewart Airport station saw the plume during a wind shift.
The
prevailing wind kept this plume in a sector between 100 and 40 ° and avoided
the complications of plume travel over Chestnut Ridge or subsidence of winds
as they come off the ridge.
tao-
GRI;D -Y,,
25
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,itGRIDLAYOUT MAY1, 1970
I
OMERCI' ?Y
TNT!S
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21
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. - -.-· - -- 1·
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+ 8
....
gria
grid sequence
7
cation
onitor
6
rT ---...
5
4
3
2
1
HOMER CITY STACKS
____
__
-157..
I
.
_____··_·_·1_1__
....
___
_I_
·_II
FIGUREA,4,2
Row Y=8
, 95-96
, 90-91
1 87-88
I
z
Two
LAYERS ABOVE TO MIXIN6
.
,'99-100
' 103'104
I
i
HEIGHT
-. ..
. . .
..
I
=
250M
----- '------ ---'-
200M '
CELL
CELL
CELL
CELL
86
89
94
98
150M.
100l
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-
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...
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FOR RAISING
HIGHEST ELEVATION
s/
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OR LOWERING CELL
,
tii,
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-
CELL
CELL
ELEVATION
CRITERION
CELL
CEL
_
SBE -
I
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1
r
.·-
'iii
-
BASE TO NEXT LAYER:
IN CELL ENTERS NEXT LAYER
FIGURE A4.2
......-
TABLE A.4. 1
LAYER NAME
BELOW
SBE
SBE
LAYER THICKNESS
LAYER AITITUDE
50.
1000-1200
FT
50M
1200-1500
FT
2
15OM
1500-2000
FT
3
250M
2000-2800
FT
4
L - 500M
2800-
FT
L
',:
ff-|
z·
-158-
The first problem in establishing a test of the state estimation
techniques is the assignment of states, i.e. the creation of a grid system
in the region of interest near Homer City.
The grid assignment reflects
a standard approach to considering topography and mixing layer height, both
The horizontal grid
of which appear as boundary conditions in the model.
spacing of 1 Km was chosen as a tradeoff between increasing complexity
and storage costs during computer operation, and decreasing detail of representation.
There are 191 ground level cells and 714 cells alltogether,
covering the 25 Km radials sector between 100 and 30° as shown in figure
A.4.1.
The vertical number of cells vary as shown in figure A.4.2 and
table A.4.1.
Bubbler locations are shown in the grid and the raw bubbler average
data is shown in Table A.4.2.
Since state estimation assumes simultaneous
observations occur the raw data must be "cleaned up" as in table A.4.3
A step function average was assumed during the observation period of the
raw data.
Wind and concentration data from Jimmy Stewart Airport are shown in
table A.4.4.
The same step function assumption is made for the concentration
averages to transform them to the .5 hr averaging period of the bubblers, as
is shown in the last column of table A.4.3.
Wind data at Jimmy Stewart Airport is a true hourly average observation
taken from strip chart recorders.
The same step function assumption is
applied to the data at the station to provide .5 hr averages.
Pilot ballon
ascents were made on the half hour at the Homer City plant as shown in table
table
A.4.5.
Table A.4.6
shows radiosonde data
which was used to
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C)- r-
-1601 Mey 1970
Ly/
min
Time, Dir, Speed, Temp, RH, P, S02, ppm
cm Avg Pea
%
°C
EST deg mps
0100
0200
0300
0400
0500
0600
156
149
144
142
142
142
4.4
4.5
5.6
5.1
4.7
4.2
21.1
20.0
19.4
18.8
18.3
17.7
61
61
63
63
67
68
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
0700
0800
0900
1000
1100
1200
14T
160
184
209
203
204
4.3
4.2
5.0
6.1
6.7
6.5
18.8
21.1
22.7
24.4
24.9
26.1
67
58 0.08
53 9.03
50
47
48
0
1
1
5
0
4
1
1
2
11
0
8
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
228
214
213
222
206
209
6.7
6.6
5.9
7.0
5.9
5.8
28.3
28.3
28.3
28.8
27.7
26.6
46
46
46
45
45
47
-
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
187
214
192
155
150
175
4.7
3.6
2.1
25.5
22.2
21.1
2.6
3.0
1.3
21.1
20.5
20.0
50
59
63
55
59
64
Day
186
4.2
TABLE
0.20
0.45
0.54
0.74
0.67
1.03
---
0.85
0.85
-
0.75
--
0.56
0.48
0
1
0.18
2
1
2
2
1
2
3
2
4
3
1
2
0.09
11
443
0.11
JIMMY
A.4.4
-
STEWART AIRPORT
DATA
TABLE AA..5 - PILOT BALLOON DATA
Ascn H-3
1 May 70
0700 EST
Double
Ascn H-4
'1 My 70
0730 EST
_,dee
_Dide
S,mps
183.1
193.2
197.3
198.5
L9n._.rg_D,de9 S,mps
6.2
225.0
199.4
203.2
6.5
195.5
5.6
20'0.3
189.2
4.?
203.4
7.4
8.1
8.7
8.9
199.2
201.3
203.2
207.3
211.3
214.5
213.5
192.3
196.5
10.4
202.0
10.6
204.2
9.9
10.5
204.3
10.9
205.1
11.5
198.8
198.4
201.3
207.2
210.8
10.0
12.1
13.4
13.5
200).2 11.2
204.3 12.0
210.9 13.5
214.1
216.0
215.1
223.1
241.2
14.5
'14.7
15.8
17.0
18.0
18.7
218.5 11.4
198.2 14.5
173.3 24.6
211.3 17.0
233.3 16.6
219.8
14.1
214.9
21 .2
223.1
226.2
229.3
17.1
233.4
17.3
235.6
19.0
19.5
15.6
16.2
238.4 19.4
242.2 18.7
246.9 17.5
238.7 16.0
241.3 15.2
245.6 15.6
249.3 15.3
252.2 14.4
239.3
243.2
252.5
250.6
16.7
20.3
18.1
250.1 16.5
253.4 15.6
258.4 14.7
258.5 14.3
256.7 13.8
;' 3.1
24's. 2
13.3
14.4
215.9 13.5
244.7 12.3
209.8 10.7
251.1 13.9
248.2 14.5
24G.8 15.0
247.6 15.0
251.3
13.8
248.7
245.7
14.?
15.0
3.5
7.2
8.3
8.7
8.1
7.9
235.0
141.7
172.1
202.9
208.5
222.0
10.2
1.7
12.1
17.4
18.0
16.9
235.0
135.6
159.6
193.9
199.1
203.9
8.2
9.3
10.8
12.0
13.0
229.1
220.1
217.6
217.2
219.4
18.4
24.5
29.7
31.6
22.1
207.5
208.8
211.3
217.7
217.3
219.0
222.4
223.0
14.2
16.2
13.7
14.9
220.4
219.7
216.9
219.4
223.5
17.9
16.1
13.9
12.9
11.9
223.3
230.6
224.4
220.7
9.7
6.3
6.8
11.1
15.9
221.7
219.9
14.2
8co
850
218.6
16.5
15.4
11.2
8.2
900
100U
231.7
6.4
6.7
1100
226.5
231.2
232.7
233.1
265.0
131.5
143.2
216.1
186.1
202.5
310.0
11.0
D,deq S,mps
P,deg S,rnps D,deg S,mps
0.3
2.4
202.0
1911.9
D,deg S,mps
D,deg S,mps
0.0
6.0
1IU0.? 8.5
Ascn H-10
1 May 70
1030 EST
Single
Ascn H-7
1 May 70
0900 EST
Single
128.9
141.3
7.2
8.7
Atcn H-9
1 May 70
1000 EST
Single
Ascn H-G
1 MFay70
0830 EST
Double
3.0
4.0
0.0
161.0
Ascn H-5
1 May 70
0800 EST
Combined
1.7
4.7
6.3
7.4
7.6
7.2
1.3
0.3
2.3
3.7
6.6
235.0
231.1
226.3
223.5
222.2
6.1
219.2
6.2
7.1
Ascn H-8
1 May 70
0930 EST
Double
214. 1
213.5
215.2
216.4
217.3
12.4
7.0
230.2
223.2
8.7
216.2 10.9
216.2 13.2
221.0
224.8
228.5
12.9
15.3
16.1
17.1
18.9
218.6
222.3
224.0
228.6
234.3
235.1
240.1
16.8
15.6
239.4 13.8
240.0 14.3
241.0 14.2
243.0 13.6
243.2 12.4
225.1
15.9
225.9
227.7 15.9
231.0 15.3
231.5 16.4
233.4 16.2
234.1
242.0 12.1
240.4 11.8
239.5 11.1
237.8 11.9
239.0 12.0
237.3
13.9
11.5
12.2
12.8
13.3
226.9
225.0
228.7
234.5
16.2
16.2
20.3
15.3
13.6
243.2 11.5
245.7 11.8
246.6 11.9
239.6 10.6
249.0 4.9
238.1
241.3
244.5
247.5
16.1
19.0
18.3
16.8
209.9
215.3
218.8
8.7
10.6
12.5
246.8
13.0
12.4
14.1
14.3
14.1
12.0
242.1
240.0
238.1
236.6
15.5
236.3
230.4
226.7
227.1
214.4
217.6
219.7
218.1
225.2
230.9
222.1
227.0
228.0
7.1
1.0
7.5
11.4
12.9
13.3
Sfc
£0
103
150
200
250
14.0
15.6
16.1
16.0
14.7
300
350
400
450
500
11.7
8.9
9.6
10.5
11.8
550
600
650
700
750)
10.5
10.0
12.6
18.7
24.6
283.1
29.8
1200
1250
13CJ
1I.3,
TABLE
A.4.6
RADIOSONDE DATA
Ascn 243
Pm_
1000
970
953
950
905
900
884
850
819
800
777
750
733
700
Z, m
165
428
580
608
1026
1073
1228
1564
1881
2079
2325
2620
2810
3189
1 May 1970
Ascn 244
0503 EST
°
T,°C
Td, C
19.1
21.5
21.3
18.4
18.6
19.5
17.3
15.2
13.5
11.5
9.6
8.4
5.3
13.1
10.4
9.9
6.6
7.1
9.7
7.9
6.2
7.1
7.2
1.0
- 3.7
- 3.0
H, m D,deg S,mps
Sfc
150
300
240
185
204
4.0
9.0
11.3
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
195
226
236
230
207
208
7.2
15.4
16.2
10.0
12.3
14.6
TABLE
E ST
S B E
P,mb
Z, m
1000
970
950
922
900
855
850
819
800
781
765
750
700
154
428
612
874
1084
1526
1576
1891
2088
2290
2462
2627
3193
T,°C
1216 EST
Td,°C H, m 0,deg S,mps
250
15.7
Sfc
12.8
150
9.1
300
8.3
6.6
17.
500
16.6
6.4 1000
13.1
6.2 1500
12.2
6.9 2000
11.3
7.2 2500
3.4
9.4
8.1
2.1
4.5 - 1.0
28.0
26.0
23.5
21.4
250
234
255
231
227
234
228
7.6
6.9
8.8
6.7
11.2
10.1
12.4
13.7
A.4 .7
2
D,deg, S,mps
1 May 1970
D,deg, S,mps
3
D,deg, S,mps
4
L
D,deg,S,mps
m
0700-30
172
3.5
196
7.2
203
12.0
450
0730-00
135
1.4
193
6.2
201
11.5
500
0800-30
238
6.7
201
8.6
205
10.7
218
11.4
550
0830-00
207
4.2
204
7.4
213
10.3
219
14.1
600
0900-30
180
1.3
202
5.5
221
9.2
222
13.2
650
0930-00
231
6.3
222
8.2
215
10.7
219
14.9
700
1000-30
183
8.0
211
17.4
221
25.3
220
14.5
750
1030-00
177
5.2
199
12.5
212
15.3
223
11.1
800
1100-30
-
-
850
1130-00
-
-
900
242
9.0
950
-
-
1200-30
1230-00
250
7.6
250
6.9
245
7.6
Below SBE layer assumed to be identical to SBE layer.
1000
-162-
establish the height of the mixing layer
at 500 EST (400 m)
(L)
and 1230 EST (1100 m, calculated graphically from the 0500 sounding using
the 1230 surface temperature).
time between these data points.
It is assumed that L grows linearly with
The value of L under this assumption is
With a knowledge
then used to determine the grid size in the top layer.
of pilot balloon behavior and all the grid sizes the wind behavior in each
grid layer can be approximated by averaging the wind data through the
depth of the layer and assuming it is representative of the next .5hr.
These calculated mixing heights and grid layer wind speeds are shown in
o
Table A.4.7.
+
For a wind of V mps from 0 . and a cartesian grid with
x at 4 , the components
are given by:
u = V x = - V cos
x
v = V
=
V sin
(O- 4)
(O -
(A.4.1)
)
Table A.4.8 presents the unit data at Homer City.
The step function
assumption also applies to this date yielding the.5hr average concentration
and plume rise shown in Table A.4.9 (Briggs, 1965).
Based on these plume
rise figures, it is assumed that the plume is trapped in the upper grid cell
layer when it reaches its equilibrium position.
TABLE
Homer City Emission Data
Homer City
Tirte,
EST
Load, T, DT,
mw
CC 0°
Vel,
SO2, Cal/sec
mps g/sec
x 106
0400
0500n
06F00
0700
ono0
0900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
15n
Unit
2
Time, Load, T,
EST mw
°C
DT,
°C
Vel, S02, Cal/sec
rps /tsec
x 106
04n0
OE
00
0600
0700
0800
0900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
17.9
2099
468 10 l 1;
17.1 2090 17.9
465 1,19 1:'; i6.9
2n77 17.6
470 150 127 17.1 2099
17.8
476 150 12,
17.4
2126 18.0
483 151 1
17.6
2157 18.3
484 151 127 17.7
2162 18.3
484 151 12f, 17.7
2161 18.2
484
151 l.
17.7
2161 18.2
470
Homer City
-;,:
I May 1970
1
U
12;i 17.1
1500
1600
1700
314
315
385
435
438
460
454
442
443
132 110 11.7
132 111 11.7
141 119 14.6
146 123 16.7
146 123 16.8
148 124 17.7
148 124 17.5
146 121 17.0
147 122 17.1
1600
1700
TABLE
A.4.9
-
Homer City Adjusted Emission Data
SO2 Unit 1
SO 2
1 May 1970
Unit 2
0800-30
2126
896
2081
847
0830-00
2126
854
2081
806
0900-30
2157
1057
2186
1040
0930-00
2157
917
2186
902
1000-30
2162
1503
2157
1463
1030-00
2162
1026
2157
999
1100-30
2161
967
2100
898
1130-00
2161
967
2100
898
1200-30
2161
1593
2105
1498
1230-00
2161
1593
2105
1498
1192
1497
1830
2067
2081
2186
2157
2100
2105
10.9
11.0
14.5
17.0
17.0
18.0
17.8
16.9
17.1
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