C00O-2428-2 INTERIM FINAL REPORT SUBMITTED TO THE ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION September 4, 1974 by THE ENERGY LABORATORY MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY 77 Massachusetts Avenue 02139 Cambridge, Massachusetts M. Ruane, J. Gruhl, F. Schweppe, B. Green(ERT) and B. Egan(ERT) AEC Report COO-2428-2 "THE DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION OF A DEMONSTRATION SUPPLEMENTARY CONTROL SYSTEM" February 1, 1974-July MIT-EL-74-009 Prepared under the support of United States Atomic Energy Commission Contract No. AT(11-1)-2428 Principal Investigator ill. L' i *1 Fred C. Schweppe Associate Professor 31, 1974 Interim Final Report on Tile Design and Implementation Supplementary AEC Document of a Demonstration Control System No. C00-2428-2 Abstract This report documents the progress made during the six-month Phase I portion of a project to design and implement a Supplementary Control System on four coal-burning power plants in western Pennsylvania. Pre- liminary data collection and analysis, air quality modeling, meteorological forecasting, control strategy development and program definition are discussed. Coordination of Phases I and II is explained. Appendices in- clude data on meteorology, the AIRNAP air quality monitoring system and plant and system parametersaffecting control strategy design. Interim Final Report on The Design and Implementation Supplementary of a Demonstration Control System COO-2428-2 INDEX Abstract Index ............................................ ............................................... 1.0O Introduction 2.0 Summary 3.0 Task ii ........................................ ............................. Areas 1 ................ ......................................... 7 3.1 Preliminary Data Collection and Analysis ....... 3.2 Air Quality Model Adaptation and Development 3.3 Forecast Model Adaptation 3.4 Control Logic Adaptation and Development 3.5 Operational Program Definition 7 .... and Development ....... 4.0 Coordination of Phases I and II 5.0 References ......................................... 4 ....... ................. .................... 24 39 41 66 77 80 Appendi ces Jcleteorological/Air Quality Data ...................... AIRU.AP Description ................................. 86 126 Control Parameters .................................. 132 State Estimation LAPPESTest 155 ........................ ii 1.0 INTRODUCTION The Interim Final Report is submitted as one of the requirements for completion of contract AT(11-1)-2428. It covers the period from February 1, 1974 to July 31, 1974, and is a comprehensive report of the progress on tasks 1 through 5 of the original proposal, "The Design and Implementation of a Demonstration Supplementary Control System." The work described in this report is continuing and the project final report will be available August 1, 1975. A Supplementary Control System (SCS), as an environmental control technology that takes advantage of the atmosphere as a time-varying resource, provides both environmental and economic benefit. It provides an imnediate solution to the ambient air quality threats posed by the shortages and high costs of low sulfur fuels and the present unavailability of reliable, economic and environmentally sound flue gas desulfurization equipment. The use of SCS by isolated sources would be a step toward improved ambient air quality, clean fuel conservation, a more reliable electric energy supply and consumer savings. SCS is an evolving technology that is based on the combination of several existing technologies. Its principal components are shown below: A BACKGROUND T SOURCES TM I METEOROLOGICAL AND AIR UALITY I S STRATEGY FORECASTING S PLANTS P I H MONITORS SUPPLEMENTARY CONTROL SYSTEM Figure 1.1 R -2- First generation schemes such as those at TVA [Montgomery, et al, (2) (3)] have demonstrated both economy and improvement of ambient air quality. This project is implementing an SCS in western Pennsylvania on four coal burning power plants of the Penelec system which total 5,200 MWe. The relationships among the project participants are shown in Figure 1.2. SUPPLEMENTARY CONTROL SYSTEMS DEMONSTRATION PROJECT r ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISS ION 4] PROJECT PROJECT FUNDING RESPONSIBILITY I! . MIT I I SUBCONTRACT FUNDING f a- ~ I . METEOROLOGY I ENERGY LABORATORY INNOVATIVE AND AIR AIR QUALITY MODELS 10NITORING CONTRACT _ Fl DATA & I CONTROL CONTROL STRATEGIES COOPERATION . [ PETiNSYLVANIIA . ELECTRIC ING Figure 1.2 The demonstration SCS is a second generation design intended to provide improved reliability, increased objectivity of operation and easier regulation by state and federal agencies. The project includes a parallel ef- fort on the development of a third generation SCS method with even greater reliability and objectivity in the air quality prediction process. third generation The design also provides a completely automaticmeans of reg- ulation by appropriate agencies. For the immediate future, the main SCS -3- role is in meeting existing S0 2 ambient air quality standards by means of presently available technology and fuel supplies. Page 12 of the original proposal outlined five tasks for the Phase I period of the contract: 1) Preliminary Data Collection and Analysis 2) Air Quality Model Adaptation and Development 3) Forecast 4) Control Logic Adaptation and Development 5) Operational Program Definition. Model Adaptation and Development After a surmmary, these five topics will be discussed individually and related to the work plan laid out in the original proposal. ationof the efforts sidered. of Phase I with those of Phase II will The coordin- then be con- The last section will include references and appendices containing data and other support information. A topical classification of the work performed will frequently be men- tioned.It includes: 1) Operational monitoring and air quality forecasting 2) Control strategy development 3) Innovative air quality modeling These three topical groupings, in addition to a fourth, analysis, form the structural framework for the continuing Phase II effort and are mentioned in this report to facilitate the continuity of Phases I and II. This report describes work supported by the United States Atomic Energy Comnission, Division AT(11-1 )-2428. of Applied Technology, under contract number -42.0 SUM1MARY 2.0.1 Delays Phase I was essentially a period of preparation for the actual demonstration SCS on the Penelec plants, which will occur in Phase II. The planned preparations were not completed, but the reasons for the delays were more human than technical. Union regulations affecting AIRtIAP installation, bureaucratic tie-ups on the collection of Penelec and PJM (Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland nterconnection) operating data, and administrative problems in contract funding and program definition for Phase II have all caused the technical program to be delayed. The delays that have occurred should not affect the final success of the project since they can be corrected during Phase II before the critical Exercise Control phase. 2.0.2 Data Sources The available sources for air quality and meteorological data in the Penelec region are better than average due to recent EPA studies. However, they concentrate on relatively short periods of time during the day and year. Independently, they are therefore limited in their usefulness for validating real time models, and conclusive validation will have to await AIRMAP data. Plant and power system data has been available through Penelec and arrangements to get PJM data have been made. This has proven to be a slower process than expected. -5- 2.0.3 ionitoring System The AIRMAP real-time monitoring system is installed and tied in to the ERT data center in Lexington, Mass. One S 2 monitor and one meteorological tower have been eliminated from the planned system because of siting problems. meteorological tower. tile There remain sixteen SO 2 monitors and one All of the S period from April to July. 2 monitors became operational in The meteorological tower did not become operational until mid-August. 2.0.4 Possible AQ Violations Penelec's air quality performance has been good in the past, with no apparent violations of standards occurring. The AIRMAP system has ob- served concentrations during area-wide fumigations which indicate possible violations, as would possibly be expected to happen with a more ex- tensive monitoring net. are not effectively version. inally artificial 2.0.5 These initial isolated results indicate the Penelec plants from upwind sources during a stationary thence background concentrations anticipated. may be more important in- than orig- In the event that no control is needed under SCS, an standard may be set to test the system. Control Options Operating data from Penelec and PJI1indicatethat it is physically possible to change stack temperature, switch fuel and shift load. However, there exists significant economic incentive (up to $45,000/hr/plant) to control by plume templ)erature conmparisons of all control modifications. options, including Economic and reliability scrubbl)ers, have been planned. -6- 2.0.6 Innovative Air Quality Modeling Two basic state estimation formulations have been developed and a third physical model has been designed. This effort is parallel to the principal demonstration of SCS which applies standard ERT AQ models. Efforts at developing an efficient temporarily stopped. state estimator algorithm have been Instead, a general purpose estimator, been chosen to develop numerical results. GPSIE, has A test day, using EPA LAPPES data, has been chosen to begin a limited validation attempt while waiting for an AIRMAP data base to be establi.Ved. 2.0.7 Phase II Prognosis No significant unforeseen technical difficulties have developed in Phase I. It is expected that Phase II will be completed on schedule. -73.0 TASK AREAS Phase I was intended to concentrate on tasks 1 - 5 of the original project proposal. detail Each of the following is discussed separately and in in the following subsections: Task 1 Preliminary Data Collection and Analysis Task 2 Air Quality Task 3 Forecast Task 4 Control Logic Adaptation and Development Task 5 Operational Program Definition odel Adaptation and Development odel Adaptation and Development The installation of the AIRMAP system, its maintenance and operation are not tasks funded by this project. a contract between Penelec and ERT. of its data in this project as well That effort is undertaken through Penelec has agreed as allow to allow the use of necessary, the use econ- omic control action on its plants. 3.1 PRELIMINARY DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS This taskwas identified data available to the project. to establish the type and quantities of It was also hoped that analysis of the data would provide insight into potential problems (and their solutions) expected to occur in the demonstration phase. fell into the following categories: 1) 2) Topography leteorology 3) Air Quality 4) Chestnut Ridge AIRMAP Network 5) Fuel Characteristics 6) Operating Characteristics 7) Costs Phase I data collection -8- The sources of this data are varied, but it is unlikely that other plants desiring to implement SCS would have difficulty in gathering this information. All of the plant and control related information should be available, since it is necessary for normal system operation decisions. Topographic and meteorological data can be obtained through the United States Geological Survey and the National Weather Service. Air quality data and source inventories are available through the state and federal EPA. The use of the Penelec plants as the subjects of an extensive five-year study by the EPA, the Large Power Plant Effluent Study (LAPPES), facilitated the collection of air quality data and meteorological information in this project. The LAPPES data has been used mainly in the development of innovative air quality models, and this type of data would not normally be needed to establish an operational SCS. 3.1.1 Topography The four power plants of this study are located in the Chestnut Ridge area of the Allegheny Mountains, to the northwest of Johnstown, Pennsylvania, as shown in Figure 3.1.1. There is a general upward slope of the land to the east in this region and the most prominent features, Chestnut Ridge and Laurel Ridges, are oriented in a SW to NE direction. Laurel Ridge is the bigger, reaching a height of approximately 2,800 feet (854m) and being located between Johnstown and the Conemaugh and Seward plants. Chestnut Ridge has a maximum height of approximately 2,500 feet (762m) and lies between the Homer City plant and the Conemaugh and Seward plants. The region is generally hilly with 300 feet to 500 feet (90m to 160m) being -9a typical distance from the vlley are numerous with the floor to hilltop. Creeks and rivers Conemdaugh River being the most prominent and cut- ting a 1,300 foot deep (400m) valley through Laurel Ridge. The Seward plant is located in a valley along the southwest of Seward, Pennsylvania. Conemaugh River It is highly susceptible to terrain effects because of its short stacks (150 ft.) (45m) with a stack base elevation of approximately 1,090 feet (334m) above mean sea level (MSL). Within four miles to the east and south Laurel Ridge rises 1,500 feet (460m) above the stack tops. Laurelridge nearby. The Conemaugh River valley passes through To the north and west there are smaller hills which still rise several hundred feet above stack top, and about 7 miles (llkm) further to the west Chestnut Ridge begins. East of New Florence, Pennsylvania, about two miles southwest of the Seward plant and also on the Conemaugh River is the Conemaugh station. This plant also is susceptible to topographic influences, despite its 1,000 foot (305m) stacks. Stack base elevation is 1,090 feet MSL (334m) so that within four miles (6.4kmin) to the east and south Laurel Ridge rises over 500 feet above stack top. The Homer City plant, located about three miles (5km) southwest of HlomnerCity, Pennsylvania, is on a plateau. Stack base elevation is approx- 1,220 feet (371m) MSLand much of the terrain to the north, west and south is about the same elevation, although slightly hilly. Chestnut Ridge lies two miles (3.2km) to the east but only rises to about 1,800 feet (550m), or approximately mid-stack. Stack heights are 800 feet (244m). A narrow river valley is between the plant and Chestnut Ridge, causing the terrain to drop off about 220 feet (65m) temporarily. In the region to the east of the plant there exists a plateau at elevation 1,300 feet (397m) after -10Chestnut Ridge. Beyond the plateau, about ten miles (16km) from the plant, Chestnut idge rises to about 2,000 feet (610m) again. The Keystone plant is in a shallow valley about two miles west of Stack base elevation is approximately 1,000 feet Shelocta, Pennsylvania. I4SL(305m) with stack heights of 800 feet (244m). The surrounding coun- tryside is hilly and the highest peaks reach about mid-stack height. Several rivers and creeks pass nearby, valleys forming about 300 feet (92m) below the hilltops. The plants lie in an approximate straight line running southeast to northwest with about 25 miles (40km) separating the Keystone plant from Connemiaughand Seward. Pittsburgh lies about 40 miles (64km) west of Connemaugh and 35 miles (56km) southwest of Keystone. 3.1.2 Meteorology Meteorological data for the Penelec region was collected to establish an understanding of the historical behavior in the area, and to identify sources of past meteorological forecasting effort. The plants in the last to searching through printed data, daily U.S. National Weather Service region has been collected data from te patterns of atmospheric data sources which could be useful In addition during the demonstration phase. in order since mid-June as part of the ERT This includes both teletype and facsimile data. are located in rural areas and all have begun operation decade except Seward. data base exists for the plants. Thus no site-specific meteorological There are several small airports in the region and Pittsburgh is relatively close. The airports [Blairsville, Johnstown, Altoona and Allegheny County] provide records of surface wind speed and direction, temperature, pressure, relative himidity, precipitation and cloud cover. In addition Pittsburgh also supplies data -11- on upper atmosphere winds and vertical temperature soundings, using a slowPitts- unit, and is the closest station with this information. ascent ESU burgh also has stability wind rose data compiled, as does Altoona and Philipsburg. The best, though limited, source of on-site meteorological data is the four-volume Large Power Plant Effluent Study (LAPPES) which was conducted over a period of four years by the EPA. The limitations arise because LAPPES concentrated only on morning phenomena and because LAPPES It followed the completion of the construc- was not a continuous study. tion of the large plants and provides data for the following periods: October April 13 - 31, 1967 8 - May 10, 1969 March 14 - April 12, 1968 October 9 - November 7, 1969 May 5 - June 1, 1968 April June 25 - July 23, 1968 October 14 - November 16, 1970 October 15 - November 7, 1968 October 18 - November April 20 - May 15, 1970 21 - May 20, 1971 17, 1971 Surface meteorology data from Jimmy Stewart was supplemented with an insolation monitor in LAPPES. Pilot balloons and radiosondes were released and tracked and instrumented helicopters were used to record the atmosphere's vertical structure. Unfortunately this data was generally taken only at one plant in any study period. The following summary of regional climatology has been taken from the LAPPES report: The area of study has a humid, continental type of climate modified slightly by its nearness to the Atlantic Seaboard and the Great Lakes. Summers are mild but frequently humid because of invasions of air from the Gulf of Mexico. Winters are reasonably brisk with occasional periods of extreme cold; spring and fall months have moderate to cool temperatures. Precipitation is well distrib- uted throughout the year, with appreciable snowfall in winter and the maximum frequency of thunderstorms in early summer. -12- Surface inversions are relatively frequent during the warmer months of the year; in winter, however, cloudiness persists because of this area's proximity to the track of west-east migratory storms and the frequent showery weather associated with north-west winds across the Great Lakes. Cold air drainage induced by the many hills leads to frequent formations of early morning fog, which may be quite persistent in the deeper valleys during the colder months. The study area is also subject to relatively frequent occurrences of stagnating anticyclones, a condition conducive to high, ambient pollution levels because of the resulting poor ventilation. Stability wind roses from Pittsburgh, Altoona and Philipsburg are included in the Appendix. Also included are tabulations of Pittsburgh's seasonal and annual mixing depths and average wind speeds through the mixing depth, which are measures of regional ventilation of pollutants. The interaction of winds and topography are discussed in the next section on Air Quality, while the meteorological monitors used in the Chestnut Ridge Airmap System are described in section 3.1.4. Meteorological forecasting at ERT in Phase I has been based airport data mentioned above and National Weather Service data. on the A fore- casting record of predicted and actual values of surface wind speed and direction, precipitation, and stability class at the four airports has been maintained since forecasting began in mid-June. 3.1.3 Air Quality The interaction of the mesoscale winds with the topography in Penelec produces channeling and downwash effects on the S02 plumes which -13- in turn affect the patterns of S concentrations at ground level. 2 effects are greatest at Seward and The Conemaugh, which are in a valley between Chestnut and Laurel Ridges, and least at Keystone, which is in hilly countryside. The Homer City plume exhibits a downwash in the lee of Chestnut Ridge onto a plateau. An illustration of channeling which is typical of this region is shown in the Appendix. The wind roses of Philipsburg and Altoona (Blair Country Airport) which are 40 miles apart and under the influence of the same mesoscale winds, exhibit characteristic differences in wind direction frequencies of the SSW-NNE valley influence in Altoona. The LAPPES data reflects the downwash phenomenon through records of increased concentrations in the lee of Laurel Ridge and in observations of pilot balloon subsidence. These phenomena indicate a need for three-dimensional wind field modeling. The historical air quality performance of the Penelec plants with tall stacks has been good. No violations of standards have previously been detected by the State of Pennsylvania, or by the monitoring system which Penelec had in operation before installing AIRMAP. According to Penelec environmental engineers, only once, during an episode condition, were any of the plume reheating devices used in an attempt to reduce concentrations. Seward, however, has had to install coal cleaning facilities because poor performance, and Penelec has plans to construct a new stack. of its The Penelec plants appear to satisfy the EPA draft requirement that SCS be applied only to isolated sources. a The nearest S Bethlehem steel plant in Johnstown. have a large number of significant SO 2 source of any magnitude is Pittsburgh and Allegheny County sources, and under certain conditions, 2 i.e., stagnating high pressure and light winds, their emissions affect the Penelec region near Chestnut Ridge. It will be necessary to reflect this -14- possible contribution to the background concentration from Pittsburgh during operational forecasting. The air quality data from the AIRMAP network in Chestnut Ridge region was collected in real time during the month of July. values for the month are tabulated One-hour average SO2 in the Appendix. The highest one-hour average SO2 concentration monitored during July was the 0.478 ppm recorded at the West Fairfield (C1) station between 0300 and 0400 EST on 12 July. This station-hour was also the beginning of the period that had the highest three-hour average (0.327 ppm) observed during the month. The Pennsylvania three-hour standard is .500 ppm. On this date a high-pressure area was centered over Lake Erie. were generally very light with a northerly component. Winds Allegheny County Airport and Philipsburg reported calm for hours 0400 and 0500. All SO2 monitors except that at West Fairfield were recording very low values. This implies that a local source was responsible for the high concentrations measured at West Fairfield. It is reasonable to assume that the wind was channeled southwest between Chestnut and Laurel Ridges from the Cemaugh and Seward power stations, which are respectively 5 and 8 miles to the northeast of the West Fairfield monitor, and that the high SO2 readings were due to one or both of these power plants. By 0800 the winds had increased to more than six mph from the northeast at both Blairsville and Johnstown, and the combination of increased ventilation and decreasing stability as the sun heated the ground reduced the SO2 concentration reported by the West Fairfield monitor to more normal levels by 1000. are given in Table 3.1.1. The data for this period -15T A B L E 3.1.1 Data for Morning of 12 July, 1974 Hour EST BSI Wind Degrees JST Wind Kts AGC Wind Kts Degrees Degrees Kts W. Fairfield so2(ppm) 01 No Report No Report 20 6 .036 02 No Report No Report 10 5 .087 03 No Report No Report 90 3 .145 04 No Report No Report Calm .478 05 70 8 No Report Calm .295 06 60 10 Calm 90 3 .209 07 40 7 Calm 10 4 .131 08 50 6 60 6 40 6 .079 09 20 6 310 7 70 7 .114 10 40 6 350 9 70 5 .154 11 40 6 360 8 350 3 .035 12 30 9 360 7 020 5 .002 Notes: (1) BSI = Blairsville, JST = Johnstown Airport, AGC = Allegheny County Airport south of Pittsburgh (2) The SO concentrations are listed for the hour at which the average ended. The highest stationary monitor (bubbler) reading during the LAPPES study for a three-hour average was 0.230 on March 25, 1968. At that time there was a large high-pressure area over the Gulf of Mexico with a ridge extending to Lake Ontario. Winds were light and from the west southwest and the highest concentration occurred 9 km from Keystone. Several other monitors in the same region also registered high values during the same time period. The 24-hour standard of 0.14 ppm was reached at the Luciusboro (P3) monitor between 1100 July 13 and 1000 July 14. During the afternoon of the -16- 13th, several other monitors also recorded high values, notably stations P4 (Armagh), P5 (Florence Sub) and K2 (Parkwood). Station P3 reported its highest one-hour average (0.378 ppm) from 1300 to 1400 on July 13, station P4 its highest three-hour average (0.166 ppm) between 1300 and 1600, stations P5 and K2 their highest one-hour averages (0.324 and 0.260 ppm respectively) between 1200 and 1300 and station K2 its highest three-hour average (0.184 ppm) between 1200 and 1500. During this period an almost stationary high-pressure area was centered over West Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania. Winds were calm at Allegheny County and Johnstown Airports for several hours prior to 1000 on July 13. Scattered tolight broken clouds prevailed at 25,000 feet until midnight. concentrations increased rapidly as the wind picked up in the morning. SO2 Wind directions at Blairsville, Johnstown, and Allegheny County were general westsouthwesterly (at Allegheny County; Johnstown and Blairsville do not report at night). The following morning, winds continued southwesterly, and the S 2 concentrations at Luciusboro decreased gradually as the wind increased in advance of a cold front approaching from the northwest. The data from Luciusboro and the reporting weather stations are listed in Table 3.1.2. It would appear from this data that the high SO02concentrations recorded were due to the Homer City Station, at least until sunset on the 13th, and advection from the Pittsburgh area. Advection of SO2 from Pittsburgh appeared to be a problem also on the morning of July 9, when seven monitors in the southern part of the network recorded values over 0.10 ppm during some part of the period 0500-1100. Winds were light from the southwest to west, and the ground fog and haze reported by -17- T A B L E 3.1.2 Data for Period 1100 13 July 1974 to 1000 14 July 1974 HOUR EST 7/13 7/14 BSI Wind JST Wind AGC Wind Luciusboro Degrees Kts Degrees Kts Degrees Kts 11 250 6 270 7 330 6 .032 12 - - 280 6 .149 13 300 7 290 10 260 4 .213 14 300 8 310 7 250 6 .378 15 300 8 310 8 310 5 .336 16 - - 310 10 280 5 .181 17 300 9 310 12 280 5 .135 18 - - 330 12 250 7 .083 19 300 6 310 10 230 6 .076 20 260 6 300 7 240 6 .045 21 - - 290 6 230 6 .055 22 - - 290 7 220 6 .090 23 - - - - 210 7 .090 - - .048 00 Calm -- -- SO2 (ppm) - - - - 220 6 .057 02 - - - - 230 6 .104 03 - - - - 210 6 .140 04 - - - - 200 6 .187 05 230 9 - - 200 6 .190 06 230 10 - - 180 5 .175 07 290 7 240 12 190 7 .162 08 230 10 270 12 200 5 .130 09 220 11 270 14 210 6 .126 10 240 10 270 10 180 8 .114 01 (Notes for Table 3.1.1 pertain to this Table also) - -18- NWS observers indicated stable stratification. A broad diffuse high pressure area lay to the south and gradients were very light. The highest values at Penn View (H2) and Laurel Ridge (C2) were measured between 0700 and 0900, while the highest values at the less elevated stations occurred an hour or so later. This behavior is suggestive of the fumigation of a broad elevated plume such as would be caused by the industry in Allegheny County. The air cleared up somewhat after 11:00, when the wind became more northwesterly. Meteorological data for this period are given in Table 3.1.3. TABLE 3.1.3 Meteorological Data for Morning of 9 July, 1974 HOUR EST JST Wind BSI Wind Degrees Kts Degrees AGC Wind Kts 04 Degrees Kts 200 3 210 4 05 260 7 06 240 8 270 6 190 5 07 240 7 250 8 210 5 08 250 9 160 9 210 5 09 250 9 300 10 230 5 10 240 10 320 10 250 5 11 290 8 330 12 270 7 12 260 9 350 10 230 7 In contrast to the periods of high concentrations described above, July 21 was a day on which all stations averaged well below their monthly average values. A high pressure area was centered over Michigan; the day was clear and cool with fairly light and variable winds in response to the -19- gentle gradient. The only high SO 2 concentration recorded was the 0.144 ppm at West Fairfield between 1100 and 1200. This anomalous value may have been due to the apparent passage of the wind direction through north during that hour. 3.1.4. The meteorological data for the day are given in Table Note that no reported wind direction would produce advection from the west. The monthly averages for July at four stations (Gas Center P1, Luciusboro P3, Brush Valley H1, and Penn View H2) are higher than the annual standard of 0.03 ppm. during this month, Because background value should be minimal it is possible that the annual standard may be in jeopardy in the Chestnut Ridge region. This preliminary examination of the air quality in the Penelec area indicates that advection of SO2 from industrial and background sources to the south-west and west has a major impact and will have to be modeled operationally. Mr. Richard Johnson of the Pennsylvania Bureau of Air Quality and Noise Control reports that stack and emission data for the major industrial sources and SO2 emissions for important area sources is available from his office. It will be obtained early in Phase II. -20- T A 3 L E 3.1.4 Meteorological Data for 21 July 1974 HOUR BSI Wind JST Wind AGC Wind EST Degrees Kts Degrees Kts Degrees Kts 01 - - - - 50 4 02 - - - - 40 5 03 - - - - 50 4 04 - - - - 70 5 05 120 7 - - 50 6 06 110 10 - - 60 5 07 120 9 60 5 60 5 08 120 8 70 5 80 6 09 120 8 90 5 80 5 10 350 7 100 5 80 5 11 40 4 360 9 60 7 12 70 9 120 10 80 6 13 20 3 80 12 80 7 14 110 8 120 8 60 8 15 80 9 150 10 90 6 16 180 4 120 9 110 4 17 90 8 140 12 30 4 18 70 7 130 12 110 5 19 - - 120 7 20 - - 130 6 - - 21 - - 120 8 - - 22 - - 90 7 23 - - - - 00 - - -- Calm Calm 90 5 110 4 -21- 3.1.4 Chestnut Ridge AIRMAP Network A description of the AIRMAP network is provided in the Appendix. Hourly average S02 data for the month of July is also tabulated in the Appendix, as are examples of the two minute output which is available. Under normal operation the hourly average data is automatically logged and the two minute data destroyed. At the option of the computer operator two minute data can also be recorded. A discussion of the significant aspects of the July AIRMAP data is included in section 3.1.3. It should be noted that AIRMAP routinely monitors several pollutants and meteorological quantities, although only SO2 is of interest in this SCS project. 3.1.5 Fuel Characteristics Most of the information on fuel characteristics can be found in the Appendix on CONTROL. Generally, the type of coal burned at the plants at any given time could be quite different from On the average, though, the coal oals burned at other times. has the characteristics: Moisture 4% Volatile Matter 30% Fixed Carbon 48% Ash 17% Sulfur Btu per lb. 2.2% 12,000 Calories per gram 6,600 -22- Some of these characteristics can vary by significant amounts. For example, sulfur content can vary from 1.6% to 6.0%, and in a single batch can vary from say 1.6% to 3.2%. Grab samples are made of all the truckloads that come in, being analyzed daily for each shipping company. The conveyor belt is sampled by an automatic cutter, and analyzed daily. 3.1.6 Operating Characteristics The facilities in this study are base-loaded facilities. Being once- through supercritical devices, they are generally forced out of service due This will considerably help the control to failures several times a month. simulations by providing emission reductions which can be used to analyze air quality improvement in the area. The incremental heat rate of these large plants ranges from about 7,300 Btu/net KWh at the lower end to about 8,500 Btu/KWh near full load. The nominal startup-shutdown rate is 5MW/minute, which for one of the 900MW units would mean about 3 hours to completely change the unit from on to off, or off to on. A larger sample of the information on operating characteristics is contained in the CONTROL Appendix. The load on this system has an annual peak to annual minimum ratio of 32%, and a 7% per year growth rate. -23- 3.1.7 Control Options Load shifting has large economic penalties for the plants involved, with 5-6 mills/KWh efficiency compared to 10 to 55 mills/KWh for replacement power. Thus, load shifting would preferably have to be done offpeak, and would require the consent of all the part owners. Fuel switching would require about a 6-hour lag to implement, with about $10 per ton additional cost for 1.25% sulfur coal (instead of 2.4% sulfur coal). A coal cleaning facility could be set up on the system. For about l0¢/MBtu and a loss of about 10% of the Btu's, a few tenths of a percent could be removed from the sulfur content of the coal. Increasing stack gas temperature from 290° to 600°F could be accomplished by 3 men in about 1 hour. each 40°F temperature change. The penalty is 1% loss in efficiency per The effectiveness is about a 7% reduction in groundlevel concentrations (for full implementation). Simulated controls will be possible at many times due to the large number of forced outages that occur on the plants involved (up and down several times a month). Penelec would like to exercise an SCS control for several reasons. First, it is in their operating license to have such a control procedure. They also believe there could be long-term gains in air quality, for use on SO2 , S 4 and any other pollutants. They need an interim control for Homer City which will miss the 6/1/75 emission standard by about 1 to 1 2 years. And, finally, they would like to have a control mechanism as an interim measure until better scrubbers are available. -24- Costs 3.1.8 The costs of coal are difficult to determine due to the blending of several spot sources with long-term, and "owned" supplies. will generally vary from about $15 to $30 per ton. Transportation costs Most of the coal used has a Btu content of run around $2.50 per ton. about 12,000 Btu/lb. The prices With this figure in mind, and assuming a cost of $24 per ton, the startup cost for these plants is about $4,220, and to maintain the plant on spinning reserve costs $610/hr. The bus bar cost of these larger units is between $5.22 and $6.10 per net MWh, compared with replacement costs of power on the system ranging from (depending on time of day) $10 to $55 per net MWh. More detailed costs of scrubber systems will be available to Penelec They presently estimate costs around $2 to $4 per MWh and $50 to soon. $60 per installed KW. 3.2 Additional data is displayed in the CONTROL Appendix. AIR QUALITY MODEL ADAPTATION AND DEVELOPMENT This task was identified with two goals in mind: operational air quality forecasting and innovative air quality modeling. air quality forecasting Operational s that part of the SCS which takes emissions, terrain, meteorology and monitor data and develops predictions of air quality in time and space. Innovative air quality modeling is an at- tempt to improve upon the present generation of air quality models. -25- METEOROLOGY > AIR TERRAIi CONCENTRATIONS AT AND -QUALITY - d ) BETWEEN MONITORS, NOW AQ MONITORS MODEL AND IN THE FUTURE EMISSIONS - Figure 3.2.1 Air Quality Forecasting Two separate techniques were to be used by MIT and ERT to meet the two separate goals. ERT was to modify their existing air quality models to adapt to the special needs of the Penelec region and sources. This was to pro- vide an operational tool to be used by ERT forecasters in preparing the forecast of air quality which would trigger any necessary control strategy decisions. to MIT, with modeling assistance from ERT, was simultaneously e pursuing thelonger range goal of developing an innovative method of forecasting air quality which would then be tested against the ERT state-of-the-art model. The progress of each of these efforts is des- cribed in the following. 3.2.1 Operational Air Quality Forecasting Operational air quality forecasting is provided by ERT using standard existing model techniques. The basic models have required adaptation to reflect the characteristics of the Penelec Chestnut Ridge region. Model development and adaptation have proceeded at ERT on two fronts, diffusion modeling and wind field modeling. Early in June the decision was made by Dr. Schweppe of MIT AND Elliot Newman of ERT to use for this project the diffusion model then under development for -26- an SCS system being installed at an industrial plant in the Midwest. This model is a modified Gaussian plume point source model. Although this model did not include any representation of topographic effects and had a receptor array limited to 128 points, it was decided that these disadvantages were outweighed by its virtues of keeping track of 3- and 24-hour average concentrations at each receptor, plunerise estimates and automatically using Briggs' adjusting emissions of heat and SO2 in plumes according to the loadprojected on individual units. Furthermore, the major model developmentcosts were already industrial client. being absorbed by the The model was to be implemented by mid-July for client and is now operational. that ERT intended to use the model without ter- rain adjustments for operational forecasting at Penelec as soon as possible and to add the terrain refinement subsequently with the assistance of the operational experience. The fact that the model was not implemented until August 1, resulted in no forecasting being done with it during Phase I. Inclusion of the vertical modification of plume trajectory resulting from topography has been initiated, and the changes necessary to make the receptor array more suitable to the multiple-source Chestnut Ridge environment will be completed early in Phase II. will be straightforward Implementation of this model on the MIT computer and will be completed early in Phase II. This implementation is required to facilitate control simulations at MIT. ERT's three-dimensional experimental potential flow model for wind trajectories has been run for the wind over Chestnut and Laurel Ridges. The maximum change in wind speed generated was approximately ten percent, and the maximum deformation of the wind direction was only ten percent. These results indicate that this model, which lacks any consideration of -27- thermal stratification, s insufficient mation observed in such areas. to model the sorts of flow defor- Consequently work has proceeded on deve- lopment of improvedwindfield models incorporating density stratification. A working model is not expected to be available until major burden of the costs for this development effort November. The is not being charged to the SCScontract but to other programs at ERT. 3.2.2 Innovative Air Quality odeling The goals of the innovative air quality modeling effort can be stated as: -- the prediction of spatial and temporal concentrations of SO 2 -- the incorporation of uncertainty into the modeling process -- the demonstration of real-time model operation -- the verification of model results To meet these objectives, the efforts in this area were separated into five tasks: a. The exploration of general physical models to represent the process of atmospheric transport. b. The identification and incorporation into the physical model framework of te uncertainties involved in the determination of air quality. c. The development of algorithms to adapt the models to the available field data. d. The adaptation of the model structure to the Penelec terrain. e. The validation of model operation, offline from the demonstration SCS, using actual other sources. field data from the monitoring system or -28- The present status of this effort is that a general formulation of the model has been completed (tasks a and b); the algorithms for data application have been identified (task c); and a source of validation data has been identified 3.2.2.a (task e). Physical Models Considerable simulation experience in air quality modeling had been gained prior to this project, but it is not directly applicable to the Penelec region because of terrain effects, magnitude of the sources, and the necessity of developing a real-time modeling capability. It was decided, therefore, to develop the new air quality models by starting with the fundamental processes involved, ing to adapt the simulation models directly. rather than attempt- The techniques for adapting the models to the data, called state estimation, are the same ones used in the simulations. Physically meaningful models are desirable in an SCS for two reasons. First, SCS must operate in real time, directing control actions on a time scale compatible with the dynamics of the source and atmosphere. The sources involved in this project have several control actions available, with required lead times for control implementation varying from minutes to six to eight hours. They are required to meet standards which consider three and twenty-four hour averaging periods. In addition, the atmosphere exhibits time constants ranging from minutes to hours, or even days, which affect the maintenance of air quality. Clearly, statistical models cannot reflect thisimportant time structure adequately real-time control needed in SCS, and an explicit spheric dynamics is needed. for the representation of atmo - -29Second, an SCS must be capable of improving its performance with time. Physical models are advantageous because their performance can be analyzed component by component through sensitivity studies, and the weakest components improved by increased data collection or new submodels. The correspondence between atmospheric quantities and model quantities also simplifies interpretation of the model results and behavior. Five physical model structures have been considered and their equations are given below: 1) Sutton rlodel (Gaussian plume) 2) Dynamic Advection-Diffusion PDE (Tracer Equation) 3) Static Advection-Diffusion PDE 4) Pure Advection PDE 5) Weil-Hoult Model (Atmospheric Energy Balance) Sutton !lodel Gaussian Plume) C(s) Q = u y exp [- 1/2 ( z 2 z2 + a. a2 Y y ) (3.1) Dynamic Advection-Diffusion PDE (Tracer Equation) aC(s,t) = -V(s,t) . vC(s,t) + K(s,t) + Q(s,t) (3.2) at Static Advection-Diffuse PDE T Define C(s) = 1 C(s,T)d T = 1 to 3 hours (3.3) O 0o= -V(s) vC(s) + +Q(s) vK(s)vC(s) (3.4) Pure Advection 0 = -V(s) vC(s) + Q(s) (3.5) -30Wei 1 -Hoult _ Qe a Cmax ~Q Cmax - K1 vhe2 L>he, (3.6) (3.6) L < he Symbols s - spatial coordinate vector L- time C- concentration Cmax - maximum ground level contration Q - emission rate y, z - cross wind and downwind distances Oy, cz - plume spread coefficients u - downwind speed V - wind vector - three dimensional K - turbulent diffusion coefficients - threedimensional Qi - massflow rate of effluent K1 - empirical proportionality constant (dependenton sampling time) h e - effective stack height L - mixing depth These general equations conceal a series of secondary modeling issues regarding parameters such as wind velocities, diffusion coefficients, emission behavior, effective stack height, etc. it In order to proceed to the other tasks, was decided not to concentrate on all physical structure models at once. Physical model 3, the static advection-diffusion model, was chosen as a physical model structure to be further investigated with state estimation techniques and field data. models The choice was made after comparing the various on a basis of their physical assumptions, mathematical form, compati- -31bility ith the planned uncertainty models, and expected computer efficiency. This model has been expressed in a state space formulation as described below, with the concentrations in a rectangular three-dimensional grid cell representing the system states. Physical model 5, the Weil-Hoult approach, has been studied simultaneously with the static advection-diffusion model and is discussed in detail in section 3.2.2.e. STATIC MODEL STATE SPACE FORMULATION Define c(s) 1 T = T f T = 1 to 3 hours c(s,T)dt (3.7) 0 Then 0 = -v(s)vc(s) + vK(s)vc(s) + Q(s) (3.8) Define C: Then K 1 vector of c(s) at K 1 values (3.8) 0= [V of s becomes + vK] C + K D2 C B + + d V - matrix of winds vK - matrix of dispersion gradients K - matrix of dispersion coefficients D1i - finite difference approximation to vc(s) _2C - finite difference approximation to v2 c(s) (0-1 matrix) B- injection Q- vector of emissions matrix d_- boundary conditions Define m- vector of meteorological parameters (i.e., those that specify vV, vK, K, boundary conditions) (3.9) -32- Define -A = [V + VK] Dl1 + K becomes then (3.9) A(m) 3.2.2.b (3.10) 2 (3.11) C = B Q + d(m) Uncertainty Representation The innovative aspect of the new air quality models tied to state estimation is their treatment of the process quality monitoring and prediction. uncertainties associated with air The uncertainties which are included in the state space model are represented by three groups: S02 measurement uncertainty, emissions uncertainty, and meteorological parameter uncertainties. The uncertainty, or error between model prediction and field measurement, is represented by the following formulation: Define z- ambient SO2 measurements z _ = C + error H is 0-1 matrix (3.12) - knowledge of emissions (3.13) _ZQ = Q + error m - measured meteorological parameters m = m + error (3.14) Fromrn (3.11) (3.15) H(m)Q + b(m) + error z H(m) H A A(m) 1 b(m) = H A (m) d m large sparse matrix 11(m), b(m) - obtained using sparsity programming Define R-z- covariance matrix of z errors R - covariance matrix of Zn errors (3.16) -33- -- covariance matrix of Zm errors The covariance matrices are determined from engineering judgment and past data on sensor performance and sensitivity, process control accuracy and meteorological forecasting accuracy. The algorithms of state estimation automatically use the field data to improve (i.e. make consistent with the available data) these initial covariance estimates. A standard static state estimator will be used with this formulation to yield the estimate of the state having the smallest covariance matrix. This will represent the most accurate estimate possible given the available data and its uncertainty. The covariance matrix also represents the confidence bands associated with the estimate. Since the state is the concentration in each grid cell, this approach yields the most accurate estimate of the concentration in each cell over the whole region and an accompanying measure of the confidence to be associated with that estimate. 3.2.2.c Algorithmic Development Initially it was nteded to choose a physical model structure and develop algorithms to perform estimation of air quality using that model. The advantage of developing algorithms for a specific ohysical model of air quality is that one can usually produce efficient computational schemes by taking advantageof the particular mathematical properties of the problem. The trade-off is that more development time is necessary. Due to this trade-off, the alqorithmic development was delaying the state estimation process and it was decided to postpone the search for efficiency in computation in order to obtain numerical results with the physical models. This decision was influenced by the recent availability of an MIT code, -34- GPSIE (General Purpose System Identifier and Evaluator). very straightforard GPSIE uses techniques, but can easily be applied to nearly any model adaptable to a state space formulation. This includes the static advection-diffusion model. No numerical results were obtained in Phase I using GPSIE, but they will be available early in Phase II. As is described in the next section, a sample LAPPES day has been chosen for the initial numerical studies. 3.2.2.d odelAdaptation and Verification Topographic maps of the Penelec region were obtained and studied. The location of plants and monitors encompassesa region of over 1200 square This would require a grid of nearly 5000 cells if vertical spacing miles. of 100, 200, 500 and L-800 meters (L is mixing height) is used, with a square mile surface grid. Fortunately, most of such a grid would not be utilized at any one time. Also, the plants are sufficiently distant that it appears that they will interact significantly only under infrequent meteorological conditions when the winds are from the:Northwest or Southeast. Prevailing winds are from the Southwest. Numerous alternatives exist to dealing with a 5000 state system, including subgrids, plant-centered grids, or varying grid sizes. For the initial has been chosen. numerical studies a single day from the LAPPESstudy The analysis and the day was chosen will concentrate only on the Homer City plant, so as to have a good combination and independence from topography. of data availability The independence of the data from topograph- cial effects was accomplished by choosing a day when the plume trajectory was parallel ,f to Chestnut Ridge. A 714 cell grid system covering approximately -35- 120 square kilometers has been designed to cover the region for which SO2 data is available. The grid cells are 1 square kilometer at their base and vary in height by layer. The layers nearer the ground are "thinner" and ter- rain effects are discretized by the grid at the surface. Normally there are four layers in the grid, but terrain may cause one or more lower cells to be added or removed. A further discussion of the grid is in the Appendix. Although the LAPPES helicopter data is virtually instantaneous, it was assumed that the helicopter data and the bubbler data .5 hr average) are compatible and that estimation will occur on a .5 hr time step. data also has been extended to a .5 hr averaging period. Wind This data will be used with an assumption of constrant plant emissions during each 1 hour period of plant emission data. 4m ~II The defined data set will be tested in Phase using the static advection-diffusion model to determine concentrations at and between the monitors as a function of wind and emissions. 3.2.2.e !leil-HoultModel Structure The Weil-Hoult model can be separated into three parts: 1) Plume rise equations, which are used to determine the effective stack height under various meteorological conditions. 2) Diffusion near the stack exit which produces the maximum ground level concentration, Cmax. 3) Diffusion far downwind from the stack exit which is used to determine the background concentrations produced by upwind sources. 1) Plume Rise Stable conditions (60 c6z night. > 0) occur during the early morning and at During stable conditions the plume entrains cooler air near the ground so that it reaches thermal equilibrium with its surroundings at some heinht above the stack exit. The plume equilibrium position during stable conditions is dependent on the vertical temperature radient, 0 T7' , the wind speed, u, -362 and the plant operating conditions uibiAT. h =2.3 ' 2uba )1/3 .ibAT b2.3 1/ (3.17) /z v d/dz Neutrally stable conditions occur during the day when the plume rise takes place in the mixing layer which is created by solar heating. gradient in the mixing layer is adiabatic, d = 0, so the plume never reaches The convective eddies in the mixing thermal equilibrium in the mixing layer. layer break up the coherent nature of the plume when the to the plume rise velocity. becomes equal velocity The temperature convective eddy The effective stack height during neutrally stable conditions is the height at which the plume loses its eddies. coherent nature and the effluent The intensity of the solar insolation, Qr, and the mixing depth, L, are used as a measure of the convective Ah 5.6 Ah= 5.6 eddy velocity: uibiT v 2) s dispersed by the convective ()/ 3 (QrL (g__)l/3) (qrL) T - (3.18) -2/3 Diffusion Near the Stack The effluent from tall stacks, such as those in the Penelec region, is released above the region where there is strong diffusion caused by mechanical turbulence. to ground The only mechanism which will bring the buoyant pollutants down level is the diffusion mixing layer. produced by the convective eddies in the When the plume rise takes place above the mixing layer none of the effluent reaches ground level. When L h Cmax 0 (3.19) When the plume rise takes place in the mixing layer the ground level concentration is dependent on the pollutant flux, the wind speed, and the effective stack height he = h+hs . -37- Cmax = KQ' When L > hs (3.20) vhe For a 15-minute 3) sampling period K 1 = .21 Diffusion far Downwind of the Stack In the manner of Holzworth it is assumed that far downwind of the stack the pollutants which reach equilibrium in the mixing layer will be uniformly distributed between the top of the mixing layer and ground level. When the mixing layer is below the effective stack height the concentration far downwind will be negligible. When the mixing layer is above the ef- fective stack height, all the pollutants emitted by the plant are trapped in the mixing When layer. L < he Cdownwind 0 (3.21) The limited number of observations of concentrations produced ten kilometers or more downwind from isolated sources suggest that the plume width increases linearly with downwind distance, x, and the concentration decreases as /x. The following equation is expected to be valid for x > 3L. It is certainly correct in the region of 20 kilometers where the Penelec plants will begin to interact with each ther. When L > he Cdownwind = K 2Q (3.22) xvL 4) Meteorological Parameters !,ind speed (v), ambient temperature (T), and solar insolation are measured at the meteorological tower. The relationship between the atmos- pheric energy budget and the solar heat flux (Io ) determines the mixing depth, L. -38L = 36 10 (3.23) t (Io = 2 f Qrdt and has the dimensions of cal/cm 2) o There is not enough information available at Penelec to determine the Examination of LAPPESdata revealed that lapse rate in the early morning. the range of values observed for the lapse rate will of i produce a variation 10%in the plume rise becausethe plume rise is proportional to de-1/3 1/3 ) d A value of do -= oC/m is suggested for use in the equation 10-2 The variation of the insolation, Qr, during the early morning can be used to predict I o and L for the rest of the day to within 50%. This estimate could be improved by a more extensive data effort which would include vertical T soundings. Validation The plume rise equations and the diffusion near the stack has been correlated with LAPPES data by Weil and Hoult. The ground level concen- trations and plume centerlines observed on eighty helicopter flights were used to establish equations (3.18) K2 , used in equation (3.22) and (3.20) . The empirical constant, needs to be established with ERT monitoring The LAPPES data was only taken in the morning so that L is rarely data. greater than the effective stack height and K2 cannot be determined accurately. The variation of do dZ was obtained by examining the vertical temper- ature profiles on one hundred different days. the day was examined for 50 sample days. 33 sample d(laysof tile LAPPES data. The variation f Qr during The variation of L was examined from -39- 3.3 Forecast odel Adaptation and D)evelopment This task was undertaken to provide experience for the ERT forecasters in forecasting the parameters needed to predict air quality region. The task title is a misnomer insofar as there se which translates the AIRMAP met tower data and data into parameter predictions. n the Penelec s not a "model" per ational Weather Service The translation is performed by experienced air quality forecasters using standard forecasting techniques combined with a familiarity with the region. The Phase I adaptation and development effort was intended to provide forecasting experience for the ERT meteorologists to establish and increase this regional familiarity. It became apparent in early June that the meteorological tower at the Penn View site would not be operational until late in the month at the earliest. (The extent of the delay caused by the problem of installing the cable from the base of the tower to the instrument shelter could not be fully evaluated at that time, so that the forecasts of when the tower would be functioning in real time were still optimistic.) Consequently it was decided that ERT forecasters should gain experience in forecasting wind speed and direction, stability, and mixing depth for the Chestnut Ridge region by attempting to predict these parameters for the National Weather Service reporting stations at Blairsville, Allegheny County Airport, Johnstown Airport, and Altoona (Blair County) Airport. This forecasting began routinely on June 21, 1974, at midnight 6 A.M., and noon EDT. forecasts has not yet been completed. Verification of the On August 13, forecasting of wind speed and direction and temperature gradient on the Penn View tower was initiated also. A forecast and verification form s presented n Figure 3.3.1. -40m m - M m, - - - --- Nr mt m - - - :c: CQ U m __ m m fl "m I- H m m m 4 (:L1 ee C- .i a) 0 tH C) 0.- 4 {/. )PI. IC) U) l. H (I) "9 P U H H V) -4 0 0C4: '--4 LU LU . 0 0 . 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UH C/)C) <s OH 4. 0 140$24( 4 ,---, 0. - H x 0r +-' 4): ) 4) U)4J Cl. ~: ' r13:er o) 4i ~A 0(Ao *cdHa rj' W V ., A4 ) 4J cd c14 1. ~ ~or4~~~~~~~~r U) . o* '1 4H _ _; Fl o 4- L O Q 0 4) *J4J 1* C11U)4d (ti. 4))) a. b :s ,4. >-, CD cn P 'i- 4) 0 4O f., LU '-uC) 4-J) t) o 0HO > CD -,, ) o 4)-) C4 -4 {J (n m1 H U) co m 1)X *r -41- 3.4 Control Logic Adaptation and Development To place this portion of the overall effort in proper perspective it is useful to examine the block diagram of infonnation flow for the entire system. _ A T BACKGROUND SOURCES- M 0 METEOROLOGICAL CONTROL POWER STRATEGY PLANTS S AND AIR QUALITY P FORECASTING H E YSTEM S SUPPLEMENTARY CONTROL SUPPLEMENTARY CONTROL SYSTEM R E Figure 34.1 The control strategy is that portion of the SCS which takes the atmospheric models (and predictions) and uses the models of the power system to ~~~~~~~develop the costs and effects of all alternative pollution develop the costs and effects of all alternative pollution POWERSYSTEM control measures. METEOROLOG I CAL AD lNFORAT ION AIR UALITY INFORMATION .!, CONTROLSTRATEGY PROGRAMS COSTS AND BENEFITS OF VARIOUS CONTROL MEASURES Figure 3.4.2 The goals of the control strategy programs can be stated as: -- the evaluation of the ability of the various control measures to maintain ambient air quality standards -42- -- the demonstration that an SCSis workable in real time -- the substantiation that the operation of an SCSwill not reduce the reliability of the power system, and that it will not disrupt system operation procedures -- the comparative display of the economic, environmental, reliability, and other ramifications of all the possible pollution control procedures. To meet these objectives the thrust of this effort has been separated into four closely coupled tasks: 1. A theoretical formulation of the strategy must be made which meaningfully incorporates the uncertainties of the problem and which facilitates the easy transfer of this technology to all other systems. 2. The control strategy will be exercised, first in a simulation, then on "mock" and real 3. events. Simulations will be made of the long-range maintenance planning possibilities under an SCS; and the ramifications to the minute-byminute dispatch problem will be evaluated. These studies will cover the SCS implications to the neighboring (slower and faster) controls in the power system operation hierarchy. 4. The final task will be analysis and evaluation control possibilities and their costs, implications, of all the pollution and effectiveness, The possibilities to be studied will include the effects of: -- fuel switching (to lower and/or higher sulfur contents) -- stack gas temperature modification -- shifting the load to other plants (including use of pumped storage to effectively shift load in time) -43- -- changes in the regulations on allowable sulfur content of fuel -- tightening or loosening of existing 3- and 24-hour ambient standards -- use of scrubber systems without any by-pass -- intermittentuse of scrubbers according to control strategy -- addition of hypothetical standards, specifically 1-hour SO2 standards, and sulfur times particulate standards (as discussed in several sources) The most pervasive factor in determining the type of decisions that a control strategy must make is the time scale over which the strategies must be developed. This time scale in turn is determined by the available weather forecasting capabilities about which two presumptions can be made: (1) everything to be known about the weather one minute from now, is already known, and (2) nothing can be predicted about the change in climate from one year to the next. Thus, there is no possibility for changing control strategies faster than every minute or slower than every year. Between these bounds, the heart of the weather forecaster's capabilities falls in the 6-hour to 4-day look-ahead range. On the following page is a chart of the hierarchy of power system control levels as a function of the time scales involved. From the previous arguments it can be seen that the heart of the SCS must lie n the Unit Commitment level, with peripheral assignments given to Economic Dispatch and Maintenance Scheduling. !e will now briefly go through the types of decisions made at these three power system operating levels, and then close this section with a brief over- _ j, , __ -44______ aD 4) 4) (4 Ffo I r- S- 0 4- '- (0 4) to LU C '4 C- V) C m '4 U 3 >W m a(D m - . c- U0 tJ -- -C C U0 (c fln C -C 4) 0 - O e.- C) .0 C1 C' ,-- 4- ,-FF- '4 rm S.- a) > O 0 -4) a C 0 U a- '4 *r 4- ) '- O - 0 ____·_ I c, C4- I 0C4 to 0 4) C\j -C 0 4- 4-' C. CI _ 0 LI C) a; 43 S.I o I xa) cli E OD e.- S- (4 IV:) 4-) 4JI C) to S- 4) C E S.. 45i 4 0. '4 · t C) 4) c '4 E o 4-' c E--- C > 4) X >( a) e ,. S- o a U (D a) 4--) F- - > C) 4) EI > I C to 4- . -C sLi -t;I *_~ .4-' a .0 X: -- -~ 0. L) U,4-) 4) 4 '- 3 C I C) F- S- 0 4-C 0 'C U 3 CC- F*,- S- C) C CI I O .4-) to _ C, 4-) '4 v: 4) 4-) I> .0 3a) _ -CD . -J -J to U 4) Li a) S.- _ ) .4- · c ._ .0 E 4-) c _ 4-' a) F- Q .- E * E E Li) '4 a)J 0 Li ._ 3. . C) '4 -C 4-' 3 (A a_ 4-) C , - c (O 0 4-' > ::3aS C- U >, 0n 2: ,-4 : CD .J "- .- LU ui V) LUJ W LU U.-J LUJ LLJ LIJ M -u FH __ ._ Li -J E ) zn LU LUI v n5 LLJ r-A C, m LAJ F- = S e- 3 4) .0 4-' :3 F- C,) ) -- a) L Ua .0Q - tn C Lu 0 - -' IU*_ 0.- s Li 'VI t cr4) X q.'4 C .4C'.) :l nEEE U, O L-- ..J CD I-Li EE 0 tY C- _-- Z 0 0 4) P--4 'O -C 0,LZ~ > 43' EE cE,+'4 R) LU 4-) *- *_ r- LC) C-- C 'q~C '4 0 I-- 4.,.- * 4.. H C- C) ' c C. cn Z: c, C-) 4- l0 *1f. C-.- C3 c- *, E- 0 Cl H . 4-) E0 E n"-o *C o4-' .$- a el4 · U Q) -J I In 4) *.- '4 C >, x tnC ,- a) -r cr E3 o 4-' rn () .r-> 4, 4c E 4- 4) 4-' (Ur 01 C -C ., c 4) 4i -v~~a) C *1 - r C -' CA V..- 44J C > a) a) a) C . .t- S. S. Ir- In O 4) 4-) CD) CNJ S.- o 4- 4) .. S.U 'O0 4(v 0 vM _ S- -V F- 4) Cl 0 C C.- 0 -I- 4-) -' 4 4) LJ - s- E '4 C 0 a) E (a 0 -C I'4 -o *.- .- t4) C 4) C 0 cO -W aJ 4J ei C E 4-) C ro o S_. u . cu c C o 4S.4-' C o Li *. a) t F- .0 s 4-') C- =3 F- .r- o I n co Ct S.- S.a) .4--) C - -45view of the literature to date in these environmentally constrained operating problems. 3.4.0.1 Maintenance and Production Scheduling The use of scheduling and planning methods with horizons of a few years has been an important tool both in the ment of power systems. operation and the manage- Someof the major questions addressed by these mid- range schedulers are: (1) timing and duration of maintenance outages, (2) timing and batch sizes of nuclear refuelings, (3) inputting operating information to long-range simulations, (4) commitment of interutility power sales and purchases, (5) providing information for fuel budget studies, (6) developing weekly production schedules for the optimal utilization of fixed batches of nuclear, fossil, and hydro energy, and (7) forecasting, contracting and leveling of maintenance and refueling manpower. Ideally, all of these tasks must be performed under the requirements of maintaining system reliability and minimizing all expenses. Figures 3.4.3 and 3.4.4 show approximately how tasks are divided into the general, mid-range, generation planning and operations areas. AIZNTENAIWE SCIIEDULIN .... REFUELING 23~HYDRO ~ COST! G SCIIEDULING GENERATION EXPANSION Figure 3.4.3 Mid-range Generation Planning Problem -46UNIT COMITMENT I I I I I I I I I I _1' Forecast 3.4.4 Components of Figure wcheduling problem. ForecasL the mid-range generation Historically, maintenance scheduling has been manually performed using "fill-in-the-valleys" techniques, that is, fitting the largest plant in the largest hole n the schedule, see Figure 3.4.5. There exist several other criteria, and some computerized programs, but these are not in general use (it is a manual process for the PJ coordinator covering the Penelec region.) I 750 I 500 250 0 5 10 15 Figure 3.4.5 20 25 30 35 WEEKS Maintenance Availability Curve. -47At the MIT Energy Laboratory there is a maintenance scheduling computer program which will be used on simulations, and then hopefully as a real scheduler, to take advantage of the economic and environmental gains in production scheduling. The SCS-type environmental gains at this scheduling level have not been explored anywhere else; the gains that are possible will depend directly on the extent of seasonal variation of the climate and the amount of freedom available in the scheduling process. All the information required for this simulation is available, with the only environmental data being the climatological data of such things as inversion probabilities and stream temperatures during times of possible scheduled outages. Figure 3.4.6 shows one example of the type of economic and environmental trade-offs that can be made on this time scale (the point marked X represents the schedule developed by one of the more advanced computerized scheduling devices currently being used). 3 DOLLARS x 10 _'11 500 400 QAi ., 300 200 ,,i,,·..-~~~ QD 100 ,, 0 -550 -450 -350 -250 J~~~~~~~~ i AIR ENVIROtNMENTAL IMPACT UNITS x 103 Fiqure 3.4.6 The area representing all possible consequences of 'dollar and air pollution' maintenance strategies at a standard reliability level (the negative values on the air impact axis result from a convention of rewarding plants as a function of the time of year they are scheduled out for maintenance). -48- 3.4.0.2 Unit CornmitmentScheduling Basically, the unit commitment scheduler makes hour by hour de- cisions on which plants will be operating and at approximately what levels they should be loaded. one week. The horizon time for these schedulers is generally Although there are computerized operate manually (Penelec is in schedulers, a system which operates many systems still manually). The purpose of the unit commitment scheduler is to turn plants on and off to follow the load demand, see Figure 3.4.7. 600 4 9 500 10 2 400 U, 1I`) 300 6 X SZ I- 200 z 8 Z 00 r 2AW BPM SAM lIME 2PM 8PM Figure 3.4.7 Graph showing the removal of units on a priority system so that the load can be fol1 owed. Since the heart of the SCS is in the unit commitment time scale, much more of this level of operation will be described later. to have a general idea of what is occurring, in particular: 1. Operatin considerations - Demand for power - Sufficient reliability - reserves - Ilydro, nuclear, gas consumption quotas - Pumped hydro scheduling - Reservoir limitations - Min., max. up and down times for many plants It is, however, important -49- 2. Maximum startup and shutdown rates Geographic limitations Capacity limitations on olants (variable) Startup costs varying with down times (nonlinearly) Performance Measures - Dollar costs - Reliability For SCS use, environmental factors will also affect the generation capabilities, and possibly will be used as performance measures in the system (e.g. a measure of interregional "fairness" to avoid pollution exporting). The coordination of information is displayed in the following block diagram. .. I... " -S '2 MLnvTEzLUOE SCEDOLZS NVOLE. LR PUZLII:G SCRlXE PZWDUCTIONQUOTAS lour].y )spntch Fiture 3.4.8 Commitment Block Diagram Representation of Unit in an SCS -50- 3.4.0.3. Dspatch Techniques The dispatch (or economic dispatch) is the minute by minute scheduling of system operations. The dispatch schedulers are universally computerized and act strictly to minimuze the incremental cost of producing power. An operating SCS would have some troublesome ramifications on the dispatch operation. Since dispatchers are currently operated only for economic incentive, they would require some environmental constraints if they are not to work contrary to some of the pollution limiting decisions of te unit commitment scheduler. There are apparently several theoretical possibilities for handling this type of "conflict of interests," such as bounding operations of particular plants or developing pseudo-incremental costs. Probably the best technique would involve constraining the weighted sum of generation from particular facilities. The usefulness of this method will, of course, depend upon the nossibilities for modifying the existing computerized dispatch programs. 3.4.0.4 Literature Relevant to SCS Very briefly, most of the literature on environmental operating constraints for power systems lies in the area of the dispatch techniques. Most of these schedulers (see References: minimize tons of S 2 ent, Lamnnt, Delson, Finnigan) emitted on an incremental basis identical to current dollar incremental cost techniques. ne (Sullivan) attempts crudely to relate emissions to pollution concentrations at one prespecified groundlevel point. These dlispatchstudies are inappropriate for use as an SCS because tey attack the problem at the wrong time scale. Tile right tir and several studies MIT studies). scale is, as was mentioned, the unit ave addressed ts commitment problem (see Peferences: level, TVA, ERT, The most sophisticated of these studies were done at MIT, -51 - setting up constraint sets representing the system's limitations; (3.25) A x < b and using performance measures of the form min where c is parameterized. Te c x (3.26) maintenance and production schedulers use the same basic concepts as the unit commitment devices. Ample document- ation of these methods is available. 3.4.1 Control easures This section deals with the physically possible methods of controlling pollution. data relating to the Penelec The specifics ad situation are left to the Appendix entitled CONTROL. This section, then, is a brief outline of the possibilities. Fuel switching is the most easily understood of the pollution control measures. It involves the storage of two grades of fuel (at Penelec these are typically2 to 2.4% sulfur and 1 to 1.25% sulfur of about 6 hours before the emissions stantialadditional reflect coal) plus a time delay the switch. There is a sub- cost for this cleaner coal, about $10 per ton on top of the $15 to $20 per ton current costs. A facility such as Homer City, which consumes about 600 tons of coal per hour at 1800'IWfull load, could switch fuel for about 6,000 per hour. must liecompletely modeled to fully There are a number of issues which describe the -- cost of fuel (which can changedaily) -- Btu content of fuels (alsochanges) fuel switching alternatives: -- sulfur contents of fuels (is monitoreddaily) -- time lag for control action -- additional labor costs -- additional maintenancecosts of inefficiencies increased clinker buildup due to 4 -52- in the rate base -- whether -- loss of particulate precipitator efficiency with low-sulfur fuels. or not fuel costs can be included The effect of fuel switching on pollutant concentrations is obviously very important, e.g. half the sulfur content in the fuel means half the ground level concentrations (neglecting slight changes in heat content A recent report by ERT (ERT, 1974, Table 5.3) demonstrates on fuels). roughly the effect of fuel switching on frequency of violations. I 16' FREQUENCY of VIOLATIONS \ 12 8 4 0~~~~~ \ \ \~~ o~~~ -4 50% 25% 75% 100% PERCENT OF FUEL l'?M ST'T.VT'jR TC T.rW Figure 3.4.9 Effectiveness of fuel switching for reducing (adapted from [RT, 1974, table 5.3) violations Stack cias temperature modification effected Iby changing the operation is a control measure which is of an air preheater. The economics of the process is considered to be minor; three men are required and the chlange in temperature at Homer City and AT can be as much as 310°F Conemaugr,AT (from = 150°F at Keystone). 2onVF to 6O0:F Using the standard plume rise formula (G.A. Briggs, 1969) the increase in effective stack height could be about 12. the standard Gaussian and the resultant maximum concentration (using formula) would be 3%7 of the original. Although it -53- ;,~ is possible to operate the prehleater at fractional decreases, it appears that those costs would not vary significantly from full reduction and thus full reduction will be the only considered control measure. The economic ramifications of changing stack gas temperature will be explored fully. Shifting the load to other plants has perhaps the greatest potential as a pollution control A number of simulations measure. Gruhl, 1973; Eisenberg and Vertis, (see for example 1973; Gruhl, 1972) support the intuitive reasoning that a great potential effectiveness exists. In a power system which often operates from 1/3 to 1/2 of its capacity, decisions of which plants to shut down are made on a very small difference of marginal cost. Since these plants cover the whole spectrum of pollutant outputs (for SO2 : nuclear, hydro and gas turbines have negligible pollution) consideration of pollutants can give large environmental gains at low costs. Load shift in can take advantage of the following situations: -- variations in the pollutant outputs of plants on system -- variations in background concentrations and/or dispersive potential in different airsheds over the system -- variations in emissions per megawatt at the upper and lower ends of each plant's loading curves -- possible storage of energy at pumped storage facilities for use at times of higher predicted concentrations. For Penelec, the plants considered can switch load at a rate of about 1.3% per minute. However, because these plants are very, very efficient tile cost differential between these facilities and many of the older units makes the load shifting un(economical for this ne facility). per hour to completely replace may have to be simulated using the as pretensions of SCS exercises. high situation (as much as $45,000 Therefore, load shifting utage rates of these facilities -54- Scrubbers with no By-pass are the fourth alternative. Some states, for instance New Jersey, are presently notplanning to allow for the by-pass of the scrubber systems that are installed. In this type of system a failure of the stack gas desulfurization equipment will cause an outage at the power facility. Such designs have severe economic and reliability implications (as well as potential environmental consequences of bringing online older plants to provide replacement power). Simulations will be madeof this type of pollution control measure as soon as adequate data is accumulated on the costs and performances of various scrubber systems (in about 3 months). Intermittent Scrubber operation is the final control strategy ility. This will involve the simulation of noncontinuous operation of stack gas desulfurizatinn equipment, the compilation of realistic, ere, again, simulations actual scrubber operation data. really two types of intermittent must await There are scrubber operation that can be studied. One is the by-pass of scrubbers only to avoid power plant outaqes. other ossib- is the possibility f operating scrubbers only at times economically and/or environmentally advantageous. The hen it is For instance, where stack gas temperatures cause sufficient buoyancy to put the plumes above inversion layers (resulting in pollution-free operation), it could be environmentally harmful to scrub out much of the S02 with the resultant treiietndous temperature relduction in the plume hich might not then allow that plume to pus;trough 3.4.2 te inversion layer. Control Strategies lost of the control action for an SS will take place at the unit comitment level, that is, the hour-by-hour scheduling to a one week horizon. The information Figure 3.4.10. flow of a unit commitment schedule is shown in For an SCS which is respondinrg to 3- and 24-hour stan- dards the flow of infoniation can be sen i Figure 3.4.11 . For a very -55- short description of some of the control strategy work consider the following symbols: t = time c = pollutant concentration Qi emission rate of source i Maintenance Schedul Power Exchange Contract Decisions eling ly es S cheme ucli ear ductioin Les Figure 3.4.10 Each of the control Hourly Dispatch measures will separately be evaluated predetermined combinations) on a case by case basis. (and in To demonstrate some of these calculations consider first a simple load shifting model for meeting the 24-hour standard. Suppose that the standard is violated in one particular cell of the grid of concentration, ad that the violation is isolated in time from other violations, simplifying the scheduling problem to a static-type dispatch technique. The problem can be ex- -56- pressed as [where everything is knownbut APit)]: [As(t) - min i where and i t UAPi(t) c,(t)] wh X p, (t) AP(t) (3.27) APi(t) + 24 Pb <0 ~~~~~~~~~~~~(3.28) (3.28) (3.29) = 0 with Xp ,i(t) as the incremental addition to pollution from plant i at time t x is the incremental cll(t) cost of i and time n (this will vary as the operating point varies) XS(t) is the system-wide APi(t) is the change incremental in the output cost at n (MW) of i at time t and Pb is the extent to which the 24-hour standard is broken. The equations can simply be expressed as the minimization of the replacement power cost required to bring the cell under the standard. are available information. However, each Xpi(n) Both Xs and Xci must be computed from the equation which relates the concentrations c(s,t) and the emissions Q(t). As another example of the formulation of the control strategy equations consider the modeling of the stack gas temperature change required to meet a 3-hour standard. Ahead of the strategy computation is the determination of the concentrations modes in (and near) the violation areas. MILES NORTF REDICTED IOLATION REA LES EAST Figure 3.4.11 Predicted Violation 'lodes -57- sources The controllable violation area is B and are plants a mode in 1, 2, 3, 4; the mode (units) area a near-violation is in the A. Also ahead of the strategy development is the computation of coefficients from the controllable source contributions to mode concentrations. cB = concentration predicted at cA = concentration predicted at CA,hackgd = background HA1 = contribution HA2, HA3, A4, H1, at A concentration at A of unit 1 to concentration B4 likewise (contributive factors) HB2, HB3, Q1l Q 2' Q 3 ' Q 4 = emissions 1, 2, 3, 4 from units where 4 4 z tlAiQi = CA-CA backgd il = (3.30) = C-CBackqd HBQ i=l Assuming this 3-hour violation (predicted) is isolated in time from other the strategy violations, is to effect the predicted violation below the standard. to drop In different form 4 4 i~l cost aQ i sufficient a least IzitAi Q < S-cA 1 E 1 i=l Q < (3.31) S-cB where S represents the standard concentration. changes in emission rates, , In this equation the four are variables. Representing the cost of stack gas change in terms of a linear coefficient Di then te cost of control can be 4 =Z I)iAQi = cost of control (3.32) (direct) Another cost of control (which is indirect) results from the slight loss in efficiency on the units controlled (including power to the air preheaters) 4 Ei; then i EiaQ' = cost of power (3.33) lost. i=l The effective emission reduction AQ i from the increase in emission tem- perature is probably best broken up into two quantities, X = the fraction -58- of control exercised (0 to 1, fractional values would indicate exercising the control measure over fractional portions of the 3-hour interval) and Qi'= the effective emission reduction assuming full operation of control measures (will depend on the level of plant operation, and sulfur content of fuel) by X Q! is replaced then Nlow (if the loss of power computed due to control is not dependent can be time constant, then E of plant operation AQi. othenlise on level it must be from the power levels): 4 4 DX min [Ei(Pi)Xi + i=l (3.34) i=l where 4 i=l ItAi AQ i ( Pi F i )X i < S-c (3.35) A (3.36) 4 HBiaQi(Pi,Fi)Xi E i where < S-CB l Pi is the operating level of the unit, and Fi is the sulfur content of the fuel. As in the case with all uncertain processes, measurements of the levels of certainty associated with predictions are at least as important as the predictions themselves. Since the air quality standards are specified in terms of levels which are "not to be exceeded more than once per year" it is natural to develop probabilistic measures of air quality. A lengthy document on reliabilities of SCS's has been developed by ERT (Document P-669, February 1974) thus only a brief overview will be presented here. -59- 0-4 JQ o &j30 O V) v) C) ..4 . .44 -r4 C: 00U0 U, 43 0- o ~ Q 1 -:3c m CeJJ0 Ce c0 44 0) -40 E o o4c-Iz- 9-4.74.7 .4 4 0o0 .' oH U) Cd 'C) IH 1' 0 0 0U4 _,----- W Cl) V U)0W V- c C.4 V . b0C oC - ->= 1.I 0 -.T 43 IoC 4v O OeC 0NC. U 0a) o 0~~~~~~ .4 OHT- C: v) 0 U 14.430V) C)4 0~ oe r.3 a 4-' 0 4 a 00u sr Ai 0 V) [ 1 0C "C C 43j 4i M 0o 4 Q CU '0 Iw *0 o o O4 C U) C) 0 Cl) 03 -4.74.7 < n0 -C ) 04 0 .7400 -1 Ce v C 0C)-40 O'-) t-40 i1 P4o:>X O> a) O I) C, C) 0 43 4 C' 0.43O II lv 14 | Ut 43o rH 6-4 uZ 0 .74 H C CJ 000*l U) E 0) IH a C.) H -I P0 ) 44 0 > 1 '44 c0 I r C') 1o 04 0 ICe IAi V U, I 1.4 uc 0 -4> In 0 o C I U 0U) 1 U) V V OH Cr: A I. 1.- > ) IO . T rIL V I 4A V ') JWU U U C 4J 3 00 .f- I- S 004V Ii.. Q O e C" 3 j ( J 43 C~ -4W Zi > , _ Z IIV Ce C :O III Ai 43 C0)(A et 0 0 C;!4 (2. .) 4 1.4 U w4 ri IC a).L) azU m nI oL C) 7-4 4i Ili -4 tj I v. c) 1-i t, I U) 0 Ce C > c. Fl00 , 0) I o uU o0 tn)~4 44 9-1L)U0 -40Cl) 1-4 43 Ce 43 G4 - w C: I- J43Ce . 0 U) I U 0L V4300 Z * 0U aI) 40 I V4 z 04) ~~~~>v 0 elV0 0A ~~~~ Ai IJ "~'-'----'0 uu 1A o o o 44Jro00I ~~~z:.74~~~~~~~~~~ ~_ 0 ri IH -4 U U P -4 C) C I l) 3. I CC aO t1C) CI 0 -60- Consider the following definitions relevant to understanding the probabilistic model: c(x,t): C(t): concentration at time t and location x max c(x,t); maximum concentration over all x locations at time t x: downwind location of C(t) Q(t): emission M(t): meteorological function relating the maximum concentration C(t) rate without SCS to source emission rate Q(t) which will include the effects of stack height, wind conditions, mixing depths or any other pertinent meteorological inputs R(t): the error ratio of concentration prediction defined as follows: With or without an operating SCS, the observed maximumconcentration related to the actual emission rate Q through the meteorological C is function as follows: Co = Q (3.37) M at time t With an operating SCS, the corresponding maximum predicted concentration is related to the actual emission rate Q and the meteorological function M (defined above) through the Error Ratio R as follows: Cp = Q t R at time From the above, the error R Cp/ C t ratio (3.38) can be defined as (3.39) M -61- Assume that there exist probability density functions for M and Q, and we wish to generate a frequency distribution for C when no SCS is operating. If A is any concentration value, Q and M are independent of each other and random variables, then Pc(C = A) = [PQ(Q = PM(M = A/C) + + PQ(Q = 2) PM(M = A/2c) +--- + PQ(Q = n) PM(t = A/nc) +--- or, in the limit as 0f P(C - A) : ) (3.40) +hE e approaches M PQ(Q = c) · P1(M:= A/c)d¢ (3.41) orPC(A) = f PQ(C) (3.42) PM(A/C)dC 0o Expressing the operator above by *, [3.43) PC = PM* PQ This equation states that the probability density function for maximum ground-level concentrations can be derived from the convolution of the probability density functions for M and Q. Therefore, the frequency dis- tribution of ground-level concentrations for an uncontrolled plant can be detemined from determinations of ?1and Q. Consider next the case when the SCS is operating. In this case Cc = Qc.'l where subscript c denotes the functional value when the SCS is operating. Qc is no longer independent of meteorology since the operation of the SCS depends on meteorological forecasting. P will, therefore, Q also be generally for different control strategies. integration, tile dependence readily simulated. dependent upon P vary and will For computer solutions to the correlated of these quantities upon each other can be -62- Assuming that the error ratio given PR and PQ it is possible P, determining Q to numerically In this case Cp = is independent of to use control evaluate Q R. PC under and of Q and strategy rules for the SCS control. The value of Qc is determined in each case from the predicted value of concentration Cp and from the strategy used. From the resulting distribution of Qc' the value of PCc is easily obtained from the equation PCc = 'CcF'Qc PQc * P3 ~(3.44) *~~~~~~~~~~~~ Note the parallel nature of this equation and the equation for P, This means that te existing frequency distribution of ground level con- centrations for a plant can e determined from archived measurements of Q and M, and from records of air quality forecasting accuracy during operational use of the SCS to determine R. R is a function from all sources of error and uncertainty forecast (that is, Cp = Co). 0 which contains contributions which prevent a perfect air quality These sources of uncertainty arise from each component of the SCS -- meteornloaical forecasting, emissions forecasting, and air quality modeling. R Rq where Rq, P,, Rw Rm R has the following form: (3.45) and Rm are the error ratios for emissions prediction, meteor- ological (weather) forecasting, and air quality modeling respectively. This probabilistic-reliability formulation, as it has been presented, would pose computational problems due to its complexity and often repeated usage. Fortunately there is a widely used and often substantiated simplifying assumption which can be invoked, and that is that the probabilistic distribution of pollutant concentrations at any one point in time and space is log normal in shape. This log normality assumption enables the description of the entire distribution function in terms of two parameters -- the geometric -63mean and geometric deviation. Thus, with only twice the number of equations as the deterministic formulation would require, the entire probabilistic formulation can be handled. With the log normality presumption the single source probabilistic models are handled easily. more consideration. The multiple source modeling requires a little In particular, if each of a number of contributing sources are individually modeled in a log normal fashion, then their summation is not log normal. Thus the approach to be taken involves the log normal modeling of the combination of sources around a midpoint equal to the sum of the means. The variances would then be (by proportionate or some other functional relationship) relegated to the contributing sources. The method of relegation will have to come out of examinations of actual data sets. The solution technique for this problem could be handled by linear programming or, possibly, successive approximation dynamic programming, both will be tested to see hich is best. Once the pollution constraint equations have been set up, the operating considerations of the power system must he incorporated. On the hourly time scale the loading curves of the generation plants become quite important; these are modeled as follows. here: C Consider, for example, the loading curve presented , Cost max Cmid Cmin min Meaawatts Pmin Pmid Pmax Figure 3.4.13 Define x(k) a. plant 1 in the kth intprval eing on or off, i.e. 1 or , xl(k) as plant 1 either operating between the midpoint and the maximum mega- -640 watt rating or not operating there, i.e. 1 or 0... ow defining y(k) and 1 yl(k) as the fractional operation along the first and second segments of the curve, then Power from unit 1 at time k = 11 PminXi(k) +(Pmid Pmin) yM(k) + (Pmid - Pmin)Xl(k) + (Pmax- Pmid)Yl(k) (3.46) and the cost of operating unit 1 at time k is Cl(k) = CminX(k) + (Cmid - Cmin)Y°(k)+ (Cmid - Cmin)xl(k)+ (347) (Cmax - Cmid)Yl (k) with the logic requirements o y(k)< xl(k) x°(k) 1 1 = 0 or - y'(k) - xl(k) ? - Yl x3(k)- k) xl~k)yl~ 1 i = 0,1 (3.48) i = (349) ,l (3.50) x1(k) 3.51) to preserve the proper loading order of the cost curve (note that cost may mean economic and/or environmental costs). If this cost curve happens to break in an upward direction rather than downward (as is the case for the Penelec plants) then the second integer, xl(k), will not be required because the increasing incremental costs will automatically preserve the loading order. Of course, if the loading curve is linear or requires perhaps even more exact modeling, such as two or three break points, these cases are obvious extensions. Another pertinent factor which must be included in the scope of the unit commitment strategy is the ability to relate unit startup costs to the length of previous unit down time. For the computation of these startup costs it is advantageous to define a dummy variable z(k) as follows: xl(k) - x(k-l) = z(k) Then torepresent the following startup cost curve, for example Cost -65- r s q intervals of down time before 0 _ ~~0 1 2 ~ 3 | | s L .. o, . startup a x Figure.3.4.13 the cost penalty is st(k) where st(k) > rz(k) - (s-q)x°(k-2) - (r-s)z(k-2) (3.52) (3.53) st(k) > 0 (In this simulation mode all binary variables can be relaxed to allow fractional values, thus greatly increasing the speed of the simulation with little loss in accuracy.) Some of the other features of the unit commitment strategy including modeling of: (1) fuel switching capabilities. (2) gas contract quotas, with penalties for misses, (3) use of nuclear and hydro energy-use quotas, (4) hydroelectric and pumped hydro pondage accounting, (5) spinning reserve requirements, (6) limited transmission loss (7) minimum down modeling, and times and startup rate limits. KI -66- The week-by-week maintenance and production scheduling, see Figure 3.4.4 above, will also play an important role in an SCS. Climatological data can be used to help plan the 2 to 4 week long maintenance outages of facilities during times of low atmospheric dispersion potential. The minute-by-minute power system dispatch must be evaluated in light of the difference in objectives between this economic control and the environmental SCS actions. For example, the SCS could confine the operation of units to specific bands of outputs and the dispatch control would put all these on the edge of the band reflecting the most economic operation. This could have system reliability and air quality ramifications, and thus must be investigated. 3.5 Operational Program Definition This task was identified to establish the detailed technical efforts which should be included in the actual SCS demonstration of Phase II, and in particular, tasks 6 and 7 of the original proposal. It was not possible to specify these matters before the preliminary data collection and analysis were performed and the AIRMAP system installed. undertaken: Four areas of effort were discussions with EPA, ERT operational forecasting, control demonstration stages, and model development. task which led to the Phase It was the effort in this I organization of tasks in terms of fore- casting, control, modeling and analysis. 3.5.1 EPA Discussions Discussions w.ith the EPA were limited to the Federal EPA at the request of Penelec. Penelec would prefer approaching the Pennsylvania regulatory groups no sooner than after the mock demonstration has been tried and results of SCS operation are available. -67- The discussions with the EPA were intended primarily to gather information potentially affecting the EPA has not yet issued the demonstration project. Despite expectations, an approval of the promulgated regulations (Federal Register, Sept. 14, 1973) on SCS. The draft guidelines and dis- cussions with the Office of Air Programs would indicate that no unanticipated technical requirements will be made on the project's e related to the increasing EPA The delay in approval would seem to concern over the eventual fate of S maintains ambient air quality, it the atmosphere. 2 operational SCS. in the atmosphere. Although SCS can increase the total SO2 loading in The removal process is poorly understood and the products of S02 reactions or its synergistic effects with other pollutants may have more potential health effects than SO2 itself. This area, which is not addressed by this project, is one of the most important areas of SCS research today, but little is being done in a quantitative manner. In addition to gathering information, the discussions also disseminated information about the project. Discussions have been held with EPA personnel in Washington, D.C. and Research Triangle Park, N.C. including: Dr. Robert Papetti - Ecological Processes and Effects Division, R&D, Washington, Dr. Larry D.C. iemeyer - 'leteorology Laboratory, NERC, RTP, ,q.C. Dr. Douglas Fox - Mreteorology Laboratory, ERC, RTP, N.C. Mr. Jack Thompson - Asst. Director, NERC, RTP, N.C. Dr. Ken Caldwell - Meteorology Laboratory, rIERC,RTP, N.C. These individuals have voiced support for the thrust of the innovative modeling effort in its attempt to model explicitly of the air quality prediction process. that the present project's the uncertainties It appears from our discussions state estimation approach has been suggested -68by other researchers stage. but that no one else has reached the field testing On the contrary, other researchers suggesting this approach seemn to be developing simulation on the problem of SCS. efforts, and are not explicitlyconcentrating Our discussions to date with EPA have served to establish informal contacts on oth the administrative and technical levels and these contacts will be maintained through the remainder of the project. 3.5.2. ERT Operational Forecasting The operational forecasting effort of ERT during the demonstration SCS will consist of two functions. forecasts of te First, ERT forecasters will prepare meteorological conditions at Penelec. These forecasts will be made twice daily (on two forecaster shifts) and cover the five six-hour periods immediately following the forecast. A six-hour period was chosen to reflect the limitations of forecaster accuracy and to coincide with the approximate time scale of persistent weather conditions. In situations where adverse dispersion conditions are expected additional forecasts will he made. Examples of such adverse conditions might be a morning fumigation period or a stagnating anticyclone. Tese forecasts ill include specifications of wind speed and direction, precipitation, stability and mixing height. Second, the [ERT reteorological forecast will be combined with plant emission data to predict the regional air quality and especially any violations of standards. quality Tlhis air quality predictinn wlill entail the use of ERT'sair rmodel and the data available The ope(rational fore(castinj violation wihich iill imitate from the AIP'IAP monitors. ill provide the prediction the operation of control strategy. f a standards at that -69- point it will that ensure forecast to test the proposed be necessary reductions emissions the standards are protected, and this will require a second of the EPT model, using the revised emission schedule. etween the control stratepv iteration be facilitated This codes and FPT's forecasters !ill codes on the of the ERT air quality by the installation to IT computer where they can be accessed as a subroutine to the control strateqy A record of all forecasts codes. using SCS reliability, will be made ethlods of te the to allow report, "Analysis of the Reliability of a Supplementary Control System for S Point Source", which was prepared for te In a parallel 2 Emissions from a federal EPA by ERT. effort to the operational forecasting for interface t with the controlstrategies, provided of evaluation forecasts of meteorology will modeling to the innovative group. This will also be provid(iea common basis for th-ecomparison of the innovative models with the ERT operational models. 3.5.3 Control Demonstration The demonstration of lation, (2) "mock" control, Staaes the SCS will follow the course of (1) and (3) actual control, as described simu- previously. The evaluation will involve the cost-benefit analysis of all the possible pollution control easures,hopefully including all the inherent life- cycle costs of equipment such as scrubbers (i.e. installation, operation, scrapping, etc.). situations liste(l in sction of real dlata from te 3.4 ill materials, production, It is intended thatall the be evaluated( with a firmfoundation l)ower system under consirderation. The following table showsall the possible cases which will be tabulated in the final comparative evaluation. -70- Load Shifting (incl. maint. sched.) Stack Gas Temp. Modif. Fuel .. . Control -+ Switching Methods (to higher and lower sulfur) Standards Pollution Scrubbers (with and without bypass) Intermittent use of Scrubbers Existing, tightened & loosened 3- & 24-hr standards Higher & B L E P 0 S S sulfur lower % standards X standards ~ A T I 0 C 0 M B I on coal__ Hypothetical standards such _ _ _ _ S N _ as 1-hr ambient S0 2 , sul- fur times partic., etc. i 1 , . ' _ Table 34.1 Case studies resulting in effects on air quality and total capital included indirectly effects and operating dollar costs(ith reliability in costs by forcing power purchases). The progress toward this final comparative evaluation currently stands at the stage of preparing for the advanced simulations. which have been performed up to this point, although The simulations probably adequate for the Penelec situation, would not be of general applicability. Be- cause of the nature of the Penelec plants, baseloaded and the most efficient on the system, there is no need for strategies cisions from the scheduler. "minimum down time" or"startup That is, rate" there will which involve dynamic de- probahly never be any problems because these plants would probably never be shut down. For this case, then, an incremental scheduler is probably sufficient, and an example of an incremental-type simulation is described later in this 'section. -71- The work on a dynamic scheduler requires the use of more sophisticated optimization techniques, which have been narrowed to two possibilities: linear programming and successive approximation dynamic programming. The optimization programs are in a stage where they are being assembled and tested separately from the rest of the control strategy, i.e. as separate subroutines. The cruder, incremental scheduler can best be described through the presentation of a simple example that has been run through it. is the principal contributor to the violation grid point (10,10) at hour 14. that is shown to occur at The display shown on the next two pages showes the costs of the control strategy modification in this example.) is not considered Unit 1 possibilities (stack gas temperature It is probably instructive to briefly describe what has happened in this example. Since Unit 1 was by far the major contributor to the violation, much greater proportions of other units would have had to be controlled for the same effects as small controls on are more or less comparable among the units, nit 1. nit 1 has the greatest "cost per pollution" leverage and is the only one controlled. has a higher cost increment for its top 502 replacement cost of energylis hour. is Since costs 11,1 of generation, Unit 1 and the radually more expensive on each successive Thus 50? 1V! is scheduled in as many of the earlier time slots as require(dto bring the probability of violation down to a prespecified "acceptable" level. This example shows control only on the "incremental cost of pollution," that is, it does not assess te would probably not Lbe viable opportunities of shutdowns of plants (which for the Penelec situation). The new optimization . . . . . . . . 72 i I I II I p,. ty O, U% , I o ,. . . . . . . . I ,5,1 , _ I . , I I I 1, I I II I I I I 3 I ®- D rn G _'c I tY I - I 4 !I IT<. ! _n w I E! on I- a O L1 u, I: ui N+ _ i I- I C - -F U,.,fS I 11 U" L I it 1 I >C) ai rrt C0 0 I -n Z, 4 I l l II!, T; , LVW I F t I z:. vh I UN ! _:t I i It I. I _ I.- ILLs -... LAocA . I I I. I i - 1 Z UJ, C: . I I I i r V-ofW V)LL u-t IU - I J I Ui J tu.Z Ill L ; ,$ Ql Q U t I D N NS I, r (A U. + J F D I-- U i I !L)n f > C L ,I j - 'O LJ 2 0IZW F~~' V4 U I r 4 i - * IiIl fi ~~~~I ¢ t !L U , ' = i I LA 4 1; J -O I UJ I l, I UJ Jll I 7 II U, .0 I I X 1z 0i I cYc cc: O x UJ L I 1 O O Ct , U . I4 .I 0~~~ _Ci w ~ CD L_ I __ j _ _ ~] I..- . I I~~~~~ t>ID I I I u. 1>W =t CL, I L< I >- i d I I . ,I , I CO ,Io ! : (' f'%-,.,zn I I.r t C1 0 .,j .cj, IIt tL I Qn I C Ln n I X 3: t- w U jo 11 CK mI I < CL CI -I 3 a< 0 1I nLA !1, a * I - ,C J 1 I G1p - LA1 t t;Y v ¢ Q V) 1L l 1I ICC) W) ._ I I I II i I : L & 'r P.t i> i , U,, (4 1- -f i, * f- UJ ( I c CI W Z I lar l * I I. - O-4~ I ,d i I In It I =5 a Iw l l I. i - I-a:s It I TI Z U. U1 0 tLOI LL n 0 z U 'A * ta I l I I C? I I rl) O I ) l ~~~~~~I ! _'IA. i XI c: g Q Fw Od 0 Z W _ *_ u,. Z0 _L I, Vr qI I ........ 1.]11 1. ,~ o.... .. .... f 11.. I< .... . I. .. . {^@zIa·l|v .... I .. l.. I. s. I I I I I I I I -uI A...:11U.4 . ." 1I-_U11 · · · ·-. I ___I ...... ! . j I I I I I N0 I . i ' i I1 m.,O' I ll I I i IAC: i I I I I i ! IA I tL , qr, I , l. (,' !I Z O , ,.E,,~~~~~~~~I I i I vO V} - I iJ . i Z I z I 'I tJ . c cl i II LL.j cr -t . 0 · _ I Z : I I Lli _ I. t. Io -, 10 I I I I - u_r_ I I U v) frC' ~ ~ ~~ T - ( ID a I, k- . A I I F Ln C, ::i cr IN IL II : I *uj ' -3 cr U, . |w+ I~~~~~~~~~~P .,1 . z I CLJ-_t I ~a .,VtIT cr I~~~~~~~~ET ~~~~~~' . |U - ,_,. .-I_ • -' U' cr I~~~~ Id i , , ' }()>r cz ' Z ud:; I C I a~ LL" L'j 0V C, !Or , c, U? I~ LpJ , J I UJ va t IJ, Ih)') 'dill'',))(I I ' J O l¢l 'Y'Jtt~~~~Ltt'8 -T | {t X I~ S--.-' cr t I *IIF$ .) °~ v | -a~w | c' .-·'0 UJ | I- U.1 U U-i C, U4C)C t _ i - Or i CL CL I 1, .D , C I UI :F* | -a I X O C) 4 I I z O : I F C' t. l' I I < ')I d I *- ' t) ZUU C _ F u ff U {:) y u I= ' I I . iI CLL P (, L : tD~uj F> _ I i I I 1 1 I i I I i -U ) 11,%;) -74- techniques nowbeingtested for the control strategy will incorporate these dynamic capabilities, and this 'Will make the control strategy programstransferable to any other situation. lodel Development 3.5.41 The problem of model development in the remainder of the project came a crucial as the extent of the ERTslip- area of program definition pages became apparent. It be- as decided to pursue model development both at ERT and 1IT. Had no delays occurred, Phase I would have included and the beginning of adaptation of the ERTmodels to the Penelec terrain AQ forecasting. Instead, essentially the complete no air quality model development oc- curred and the brunt of the adaptation must be performed in Phase II. This development,consisting chiefly of terrain modifications, receptor dimensionality adjustments, and control interfacing with !IT, scheduled for the first six eeks of Phase II effort. was This schedule is believed to be compatible with the original concept of the demonstration SCS since the crucial period. period of the demonstration is the Exercise Control Due to the necessity of performing control simulations and Hock Control, it would be impossible to start Exercise Control before the model development ork early in Phase II. It does not require changing the operational proqram definition of the control tasks for the demonstration phase. More specifically, the terrain adaptation is needed to reflect the plume transport over the ridges and hills at Penelec. The AQ forecast model to be used in Phase II is being developed by ERT for another That client has a source on relatively in the original flat code for the model to reflect terrain client. and no provision is how a plume follows the -75- terrain. The first part of the ERT model development is the inclusion of a simple description of the plume behavior in the Penelec terrain. The second problem concerns the potentially large number of receptors (i.e., a location, not necessarily an AIRMAP monitor, for which the AQ model predicts concentrations.) A complex terrain model may in- crease the number of potential receptor sites of interest. The size of the area naturally affects the potential receptors, and the Penelec region of interest is over 12)O square miles. Background concentration effects will probably be important due to the proximity of Pittsburgh, and it is desirable to have sufficient receptors upwind to aid in the prediction of background. Finally, a desire for greater accuracy of predicted con- centrations will require the number of potential receptors to increase. Fortunately, at any time, only a small subset (2 total potential receptors will be of interest. °' for example)of tile The problemis to adjust the model codes to facilitate the identification of the relevant receptors as a function of meteorological conditions. The unmlodified ERT SCS model, designed for an existing industrial plant, includes a forn of control strategy that is unacceptable for this project, due to the large number of control options resulting connected nature of an electric definition power system. concerns the control strategy code and the lIT codes for control The final interface strategy. from the inter- operational program between the adapted It was decided this had two tasks: eliminate the effects of the existing code's control decisinn logicwithlout destroying communications control action. the usefuln-ss of the code and facilitate etween EPT and MIT in the AQ evaluation It was decided to install the ET machine to accomplish this. the of recommended model on the MIT -76- In addition to adapting the ERT model to reflect terrain effects on plume transport, a separate modeling effort was undertaken to improve the forecast of local winds. These wqinds are a function of terrain and various methodsexist for their prediction based on the regional geostrophic wind and topography. These methods employ numerical solutions model which should increase the accuracy model and is developinga multilayer of results work the vertical wind shear better. y reflecting ill continue in Phase II, to the stage where it forecasters. single-layer ERT has an existirng, dynamical equations to predict flow. to fluid and the multilayer model should progress can provide wind flow predictions The single layer model will wind flow data for the forecasters This development for the Penelec be used in the meantime to provide matrix for the inno- and the wind field vative modeling work. The innovative modeling effort will planned that the alternate models continue in PhaseII. to be explored will It is be chosen in early will be expended on model validation. Phase II and that most of the effort This should not be considered as a part of the operation of the SCS, since ERT models will to be a parallel be used for effort to improve that purpose. the available Rather this is intended modeling In the validation process the plants' emission ERT meteorological forecast will data technology. and the regular e used to drive the newlmodels. models will forecastSO2 concentrations in the region and these will compared to the forecasts of ERT usinq the SCS operational codes. forecasts will then be compared to the AIRIIAPfield data. If The e Both validation results indicate a level of performance better than the ERT models, an attempt will be made to use the innovative models in the operational system. -77- 4.0 COORDINATION OF PASES I AND II Phase I of the project was intended to prepare the groundwork for Phase II. The groundwork included establishing a project data base, developing meteorological experience, adapting the necessary air quality models to the Penelec region, developing the control strategies and preparing the structure of the innovative air quality models to be tested as part of Phase II. While the emphasis of Phase I was on design, the emphasis of Phase II is on the implementation of the designed SCS. Phase II will include the operational forecasting of meteorology and air quality, the testing and operation of the control strategies and the aalysis the SCS performance. I models on the SCS field will be tested of a parallel effort, the innovative air quality data in an attempt the operational air quality models being demonstrated. to improve on Generally the Phase II efforts are straightforward extensions of the earlier tasks, and have merely been regrouped to emphasize operation as opposed to design. Data collection will continue as an integral part of the forecasting, control and AQ modeling efforts. ified in Phase I, Phase II Using the major data categories ident- data collection will be concerned with main- taining the necessary operational information for SCS decision making, and for testing the performance of the SCS. Phase II data will be gener- ated by the SCS, with the notable exceptions of National Weather Service and Penelec operating data,,whereas most Phase I data was compiled from other sources. -78- Phase I AQ modeling will be involved in Phase II operational forecasting (ERT) and innovative air quality modeling (ERT and MIT). Developmental work on the ERT models is still needed due to delays during Phase I. 1) The work which has been delayed involves reflecting the complex terrain of Penelec in the AQ prediction model 2) choosing a grid reduction scheme to reduce the dimensionality problem caused by the number of receptors needed in the region and 3) interfacing AQ with the MIT controls. This developmental effort should be short lived and result in an operational air quality model "tuned" to the Penelec region. The innovative air quality modeling effort was and will continue to be a parallel effort to the operational SCS demonstration. After the model formulation begun in Phase I is completed, the models will be tested off-line to compare their prediction ability with the tuned ERT models and the field data. This effort of comparing predictions must await the operation of the ERT model, but until that time limited tests will occur using LAPPES data. Forecast modeling in Phase I was concerned with the problem of determining the meteorological parameters needed for the use of the air quality models. This was done by preparing actual real-time forecasts. effort is continuing into Phase II forecasting effort. This as part of the operational air quality Also, a multilayer three-dimensional wind flow model has been under development to aid in predicting the complex flows in the Penelec region. This work, an improvement over ERT's present single- -79layer model, will continue during Phase II with any necessary wind field modeling being performed with the single layer model until the multilayer model is satisfactory. Control development in Phase I was concerned with establishing on SCSoperation, the relevant Penelec and PJ1 constraints (economic and reliability) ability of the SCS. that the utility would use to judge the accept- Then these criteria and constraints were incorporated into strategies for applying control action. In Phase II the strategies will be implemented and their performance evaluated. control actions, and the criteria such as load shifting, Even though certain may be very undesirable on the Penelec plants, these will still be evaluated under the utility's criteria. Program definition is ended as a specific task after Phase I. Phase II will have its own technical decisions, such as whether to em- ploy an artificial Exercise Control period, which will essentially define the remainder of the project. But unlike Phase I, where the initial ab- sence of a data base and the uncertainties of SCS design made a definition of the details of SCS implementation difficult, Phase II is a well-defined program. The Phase I SCS design will be implemented and, in a parallel mode, innovative air quality models will be tested. -80- 5.0 REFERENCES Control Strategy Development 1 9 6 6 Gartell, F. E., "Control of air pollution from large thermal power stations", Symposium on Air Pollution Control, Haus der Technik, March 9, 1966, Essen, Germany, Belgian Royal Society of Engineers and ndustrialists, March 16, 1966, Brussels, Belgium, 1966. 1967 Montgomery, T. L. and M. Corn, "Adherence of sulfur dioxide concentrations in the vicinity of a steam plant to plume dispersion models", APCA Journal, vol. 17, no. 8, August 1967. 1969 Savas, E. S., "Feedback controls in urban air pollution", IEEE Spectrum, vol. 6, pp. 77-81, July 1969. 1 9 7 0 Shepard, D. S., "A load shifting model for air pollution control in the electric power industry", JAPCA, p. 756, November 1970. 1 9 7 1 Gent, M. R. and J. W. Lamont, "Minimum emission dispatch", IEEE Transactions, Leavitt, J. M., S. B. Carpenter, J. P. Blackwell and T. L. Montgomery, "Meteorological Program for limiting power plant stack emissions", Journal of Air Pollution Control Association, vol. 21, no. 7, pp. 400-405, July 1971 1 9 7 2 Federal Register (37 FR 15095), Vol. 37, July 27, 1972, p. 15095 Gruhl, J., "Economic-environmental-security transform curves of electric power system production schedules and simulations", MIT Energy Laboratory, Cambridge, Mass., 93 pp., November 1972, NTIS No. PB-224-061/AS, USGPO, Washington, D.C., 1972. Lamont, J. W. Electrical and M. R. Gent, "Controlled-emission dispatch proposed", World, vol. 178, no. 2., pp. 60-61, July 15, 1972. Sullivan, R. L., "Minimum pollution dispatching", paper presented at IEEE Power Engineering Society summer meeting, paper C72-468-7,4pp., 1972. -81- 1 9 7 3 Eisenberg, L., and A. S. Vertis, "Environmental Considerations in Power Dispatch", submitted to Air Pollution Control Association Journal, 18 pp., December 17, 1973. Federal Register (38 FR 7555), Vol. 38, March 23, 1973, p. 7555 Federal Register (38 FR25698), Vol. 38, September 14, 1973, pp. 25698-25703 Friedmann, Paul G., "Power Dispatch Strategies for Emission and Environmental Control", Instrumentation 4 pp., 1973. in the Power Industry, vol. 16, ISA IPI 73461 (59-64), Gaut, N. E., L. W. Gladden and E. Newman, "Dynamic Emission Controls: A cost Effective Strategy for Air Quality Control", presented at Annual Conference Air Pollution Control Association, Pacific Northwest International Section, Seattle, Wash., November 28-30, 1973. Gruhl, J., "Electric power unit commitment scheduling using a dynamically evolving mixed integer program", MIT Energy Laboratory, 150 pp., NTIS PB224-006/AS, Springfield, Va., January 1973 Lamont, J. W. and M. R. Gent, "Environmentally-oriented dispatching technique", Proceedings 8th PICA Conference, pp. 421-427, Minneapolis, 1973. Mead, R. H., "The Astoria Problem. A Systems Analysis of an Electric Power versus Air Quality Conflict", Ph.D. dissertation, Division of Engineering and Applied Physics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass, April 1973. Montgomery, T. L., J. M. Leavitt, T. L. Crawford and F. E. Gartrell, "Control of ambient SO concentration by noncontinuous emission limitation, large coalfired power plants", presented at 102nd. Annual Meeting of the American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical and Petroleum Engineers, Chicago, Illinois, February 1973. Montgomery, T. L. et al., "Controlling ambient SO21, Journal of Metals, pp. 35-41, June 1973. Patel, N. R., "Optimal Control of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions at Power Stations: Models and a Case Study", Ph.D. thesis, Operations Research Department, MIT, Cambridge, Mass., June, 1973. Ruane, M. F., "Cost Evaluation of Air Pollution Control Standards", MIT Energy Laboratory, NTIS No. PB-223 980/AS, Springfield, Va., February 1973. Rothenburger, P., "A Sulfur Dioxide Pollution Control of Electric Power Plants", MS Thesis, MIT Department of Electrical Engineering, Cambridge, Mass., August 1973. Sakai, Tsuguo, "Estimation and Prediction of the Dispersion of Pollutants Emitted in the Atmosphere", MIT Department of Electrical Engineering, Cambridge, Mass., May 1973. -82- Sullivan, R. L., and D. F. Hackett, "Air Quality Control using a Minimum Pollution Dispatching Algorithm", (mimeo), Engineering and Industrial Experiment Station, University of Florida, 1973. 1 9 7 4 Delson, J. K., "Controlled Emission Dispatch", paper T 74 156- , presented at the 1974 Winter meeting, IEEE Power Engineering Society, New York, N. Y., January 1974. Desalu, A. A., "Dynamic Modeling and Estimation of Air Pollution", Ph.D. dissertation, MIT Department of Electrical Engineering, Cambridge, Mass., 1974 Electric Light and Power, "Supplementary Control Systems: Last Chance to Avoid So2 Scrubbers", Electric Light and Power, E/G Edition, April 1974, pp. 26-27. Environmental Research & Technology, Inc., "Analysis of the Reliability of a Supplementary Control System for SO2 Emissions from a Point Source", ERT Document P-669 prepared for U.S.E.P.A., 429 Marrett Rd., Lexington, Mass., 150 pp., February 1974. Finnigan, . E., and A. A. Fouad, "Economic dispatch with pollution constraints", paper C 74-115-8, presented at the 1974 Winter meeting, IEEE Power Engineering Society, New York, N. Y., January 1974. Gruhl, J., "Generator maintenance and production scheduling to optimize economicenvironmental performance", MIT Energy Laboratory Publication # MIT-EL 74-002p, Cambridge, Mass. 02139, January 1974. Hoult, D. P., and W. T. Kranz, "Feasibility of Fuel Switching in Boston", MIT Energy Laboratory Report, MIT-EL-74-001, Cambridge, Mass., May 1974. Marks, D. H., and P. F. Shiers, "Economic-environmental system planning: Part III, Site Evaluation: Water", presented at the 1974 IEEE-PES Summer Power Conference, Anaheim, Ca., July 1974. Ruane, M. F., "Economic-environmental system planning: Part II, Site evaluation: Air", presented at the 1974 IEEE-PES Summer Power Conference, Anaheim, Ca., July 1974. INNOVATIVE AIR QUALITY MODELING REFERENCES 1 9 5 7 Smith, F. B., "The Diffusio, of Smoke from a Continuous Elevated Point-Source into a Turbulent Atmosphere', Journal Fluid Mechanics, 2, p. 49, 1957 -83- 1962 Blackadar, A. K., "The Vertical Distribution of Wind and Turbulent Exchange in a Neutral Atmosphere", Journal Geophysical Research, v. 67, No. 8., p.3095, July 1962. 1968 Slade, David H., ed., Meteorology and Atomic Energy 1968, USAEC, TID-24190, NTIS, U.S. Department of Commerce, Springfield, Va., 1968. 1969 Hanna, Steven, R., "Characteristics of Winds and Turbulence in the Planetary Boundary Layer", Environmental Science Services Administration, Technical Memorandum ERLTM-ARL 8, January 1969. Shir, C. C., "A Pilot Study in Numerical Techniques for Predicting Air Pollutant Distribution Downwind from a Line Stack", Atmospheric Environment, v. 4, pp. 387-407, June 1969. 1970 Lumley, J. L., Stochastic Tools in Turbulence, Academic Press, New York, New York, 1970. Shir, C. C., "Numerical Investigation of the Atmospheric Dispersion of Stack Effluents", IBM Research Laboratory, San Jose, California, July 1970. 1971 Briggs, G. A., "Plume Rise: A Recent Critical Review", Nuclear Safety, No. 1, p. 15, January-February, v. 12, 1971. Egan, B. A., and J. R. Mahoney, "A Numerical Model of Urban Air Pollution Transport", presented at the American Meteorological Society-APCA meeting on Air Pollution Meteorology, North Carolina, April 1971. Egan, B. A., and J. R. Majoney, "Applications of a Numerical Air Pollution Transport Model to Dispersion in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer", Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Mass., December 1971. Martin, Delance, "An Urban Diffusion Model for Estimating Long Term Average Values of Air Quality", JAPCA, v. 21, No. 1, January 1971. 1972 Egan, B. A. and J. R. Mahoney, "Numerical Modeling of Advection and Diffusion of Urban Area Source Pollutants", Jrnl of Applied Meteorology, v. 11, No.2, pp. 312-322, March 1972. -84- Golder, D., "Relations Among Stability Parameters in the Surface Layer", Boundary Layer Meteorology 3, D. Reidel Publishing Co., Dordrecht, Holland, 1972. Holyworth, George C., "Mixing Heights, Wind Speeds and Potential for Urban Air Pollution Throughout the Contiguous United States", U.S.E.P.A., AP-101, January 1972. Schich, L. J. et al., "Air Quality Diffusion Model, Application to New York City", IBM Jrnl of R & D, v. 16, No.2, March 1972. Shir, C. C., "A Numerical Computation of Air Flow over a Sudden Change of Surface Roughness", Jrnl of Atmospheric Science, v. 29, No. 2., pp. 304-310, March 1972. Shir, C. C., "Turbulence Transport Model", IBM Research Document RJlll9, IBM, San Jose, California, October 1972. 1973 Halpern, P. et al, "Air Pollution Modeling for an Episode Condition in New York City, January 10-12, 1971," IBM Data Processing Division Report 320-3311, IBM, Palo Alto Scientific Center, Palo Alto, Calif., January 1973. Kondon, J., "Concentrations of Carbon Monoxide in a Street Canyon", IBM Data Processing Division Report 320-3310, IBM Palo Alto Scientific Center, Palo Alto, California, January 1973. Sakai, Tsuguo, "Estimationand Predictionof the Dispersion Emitted in the Atmosphere", MIT Department of Electrical of Pollutants Engineering, MIT, Cambridge, Mass., May 1973. Shir, C. C. and L.J. Shieh, "A Centralized Urban Air Pollution Model and Its Application to the Study of SO Distributions in the St. Louis Metropolitan Area", IBM Research Document R31227, IBM, San Jose, California, May 1973 Shir, C.C., "A Preliminary Numerical Study of Atmospheric Turbulent Flows in the Idealized Planetary Boundary Layer", Jrnl of Atmospheric Sciences, V.30, No. 7, pp. 1327-1339, October 1973. Weil, J. C., Hoult, . P., "A Correlation of Ground-level concentrations of sulfur Dioxide Downwind of the Keystone Stacks", Atmospheric Environment, V. 7., pp. 707-721, 1973 -85- 1 9 7 4 Desalu, A. A., "Dynamic Modeling and Estimation of Air Pollution", Ph.D. Dissertation, MIT Department of Electrical Engineering, Cambridge, Mass. 1974. Desalu, A. A., L. A. Gould and F. C. Schweppe, "Dynamic Estimation of Air Pollution", Electronic Systems Laboratory Report ESL-P 534, Cambridge, Mass., February 1974 Hoult, D. P. amd W. T. Kranz, "Feasibility of Fuel Switching in Boston", MIT Energy Laboratory Report, MIT-EL-74-001, Cambridge, Mass., February 1974. -86- A.1 METEOROLOGICAL/AIR QUALITY This appendix lists the monthly summary of AIRMAP S quality data at the sixteen monitoring stations. 2 air It includes concentrations equating the 24 hour standard at monitor P3 (Luciusboro) on July 14, 1974. Also included is 24 minutes of two minute average data from the entire Chestnut Ridge AIRMAP system. The latter two tables present wind rose data for the three stations nearest to Penelec-Pittsburgh, Philipsburg and Altoona (Blair County), and mixing depth information as observed at Pittsburgh, the nearest station taking regular upper atmospheric soundings. -87O N .0 -- ;r: 0 -t' c:' 0 0 0 oC o ,3 . r-0 3 .3 4-43 '. n ' '_j7. _.-n ,-- .4 _o>J ,.4 · C· ·_ r i, OCe 4r0· · C ii ¢. IC) O 1i1. C C · * ". . * ' * * . * . . o· i . . . 10 a a00 i. II, . . . . ' 0 . :N 4_ c> oo . . * ¢m , N C> o . .* . 40 -4 C> > o , . o C), C ooo o ~ t :o o ri gC> · C> o :l iio 0 l cc ef ` C. N * -4 .. A.- . e%,r'u.'J o o o0 O oC.C,0 M' 'UC oOO,.', --0N0.'t0"Mro- 0'0"oon- ( . " C40 u .,' 0 0 * .- 0o oD~ .n' OO .4 c . 1'. . oC 0 -0 .. 0 f . 0 a: '0 o0C" .. oC., C), C o -o C: 0O N : - 4 ' . .4 ~oco,M. ' c 0 o C. o O O '...'O . . 0 o oO 0 r s o .1 .7o 01 ,A 0 f o >o^oOo :D :o ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0 - ' - - X .....-- *.-:'1.-* ................. 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C> '7'0~ -4 0o~.0 C C .. .. n If A C -' .. 7 .40Z7 a' .. " '1O-- 0' 'A C-.' .. ' -:C 0 .. .. C:0X - 14 Cn - C CU-4.. . C UD Ln ZT7 . C0'1 - C' 0 CO00C)''1 .CU. . . . . . WI '0 . C> 00 ' 041 CU 0 7- Cn - CO 0' ~LZ 421 2 - cm CU ') * o. C '- v a' 0.4 -- U m, P41 --- - 0' 0 -. CU WI -N - NN N A0 3 C 0 Di 0 )-- I. I 7' 0 0'J *'1 0 O .44 1: I- it NN N N 0 -4 " .41 . CU '41 'C' 7 V/) 03 -105TABLE A.1.2 TWO MINUTE TELETYPE DATA PENELEC - AUG. 18, 1974 09:28 EST parameter code parameter value Parameter identifier: N2H XXXX XX --monitor status code station code, 2 is Florence Substation Network code, N is Chestnut Ridge 999 indicates missing data Note that the tower data at station G is mostly nonsense on this printout. The tower was still not functioning properly at the time. Current Parameter Code Listing Code Format NN. N NNN. NNN. NNN. NN.N N. NN .NNN .NNN NN.N NNN. NNN. NNN. NNN. NNN. NN.N NNN. .NNN .NNN Particulates* Wind Speed (miles) Wind Direction (degrees) Temperature (degrees F) Carbon Monoxide Concen.(PPM) Hydrocarbn Concen.- moth. (PPM) Oxides of Nitrgn. (PPM) NOx Sul. Diox. Concen.(PPM) L N Temp. Difference (degrees F) Dewpoint (degrees F) Stability Classification Wind Range (degrees) Nitrgn. Diox. Concen.(PPM)NO 2 Cloud Ceiling (100 feet) Cloud Cover (0.0 to 1.0) Solar Altitude Ozone Concen (PPM) Sul. Diox. Concen.(PPM)Meloy ** ERT FORM 1142o J K L M N P Q R S T U V W X Y Z +NN NNN. NN.N N. NN NNN. .NNN NNN. N.NN NNN. N.NN NNN. NNN. N. NN Vert. Wind Comp. (Bivane) Horiz. Wind Comp. (Bivane) Hydrocarbon Concentration (PPM) Methane Concentration Voltage Test** Nitro. Oxide Concen. (PPM) NO Wind Speed (Knots) Remote Readout** Rain (inches) Coefficient of Haze (degrees) Sunlight Intensity(cal/cm2 ) Visibility (tens of meters) Megawatts Generalized Control/Monitor** NNN. Air Mass Primarily used by the NOVA programs, and not by statistical programs. -106TABLE A.1.2 ,"":"! 20 N 1 H: 0)4 NH: Ci:4 N2Ht: !,:^: Ci: : 04 NEH I: 174 04 NFH: 8:' N C.)N: N7H: NIH: NMH: r78 14 N7C:: NF 6: 0!4 07 NAH: C)3 010 N :T : NET: NGT: N1X: 4 04 NT,: 04 N2X: NOX 77. (:]4 NFX C) . NGc'! f,. ;, '_' . IRllH : tC :3) N ')N: N7H: NDH: NMH: NF6: NOT2: NIX: 42. N H 0.4 N2H: 04 04 07 04 .:,.4 02 : 34 04 NLT 0-4 N2X ... ,:'1 NC. . - -Nr.'F:' NWIX: 0),9: 32 N ON: .2) I li: N7H: NDH: 04 N 3 H: 0(4 NEI'H NMH: ".:;72: 0)4 NNHT x!7C: 05 0)4 N76' NF'/, 72 4 "7": *':" . 7~ NO Y N'HF- ,]' ,,?, ,-? NLT' N2 X 028 04 N3H: NAH: . 056 04 NEH: NFH: . 172 04 NGH: NCH: . 067 04 N3C: N' C:: . 999 20 N86: 168 04 .038 04 . 000 05 N6H: NCH: NLH: .055 04 N36: . 999 20 NFC: . 999 20 . 052 04 . 053 04 .102 04 . 999 20 NET: 95. NG.,-,: 0C4 NMT: (04 N:3:X 7. NE:YX: :)4 NLX: 77. 0: 4 Nl , : 92. 5'04 85. 04 00 122. 77. 04 1. 99 04 9. 1 04 NFT: NNT: 100. 0 04 NOT: N6X: NCX: NMX; 999. 20 N7X: 04 78. 04 NDX: NNX: NTK: 77, 04 04 04 04 100. 0 04 96. 8 04 79. 06 71. 06 76. 04 04 NT.J: 48. 7 04 N3H: . 200 04 N6H: .999 20 035 04 NCH: . 061 04 .000 05 NLH: . 049 04 236. 20 Ni..: 9'..99 20 ,) 4 NAH: . )4. NF H: 2O 04 041 NCil : 04 NT2: 04 N G''; : 2. . `4. C 7 ) f04 ' C) N7T: 04 NDT: 04 NMT: '74 N. : X : 04 0I''4 NF'Y ':) ~l NG,.:. i NR !- 20 :. 04 NO6: .089 04 NG3: 121. 92. 1 04 N2T: 100. 0 99. 9 20 NAT: 97. () 4 NT:: O. 04 i. K F:\,' NT1: N1T: N8T: 0 4 NGr: ';;'..":; 4 .' 04 N6T: 20 NCT 80. 06 06 04 04 NOC: (0)4 NOI : NrO: 20 N7X: 999. 258 04 04 N3X NOX: E:4. 04 N6X: ' 45. ; )C) Q)4 0i:4 NFX 20 04 137 04 NGH: . 000 05 NLH: .051 04 04 N3C: . 047 04 N36: .100 04 99 20 .N86: .99 20 NFC: .037 04 253 04 NOC: . 015 04 N06: .089 04 179. 04 NT1: 9. 04 NG3: 121. 04 . 040 04 N1T: 91. 9 04 N2T: 100. 0 04 9:'-. 04 N8T: 99. 9 20 NAT: 97. 04 0 04 NET: 95. 3 04 NFT: 100. 0 04 92. 5 04 NNT: 100. 0 04 NOT: 97. 0 04 04 NT2: 179. 04 04 NG',: 0C)38 04 - 20 N7T: 93. 9 04 0t)4 NDIT: .0 04 NGI;: 04 N 1' .- 4 (i04 NT': 71¶ 0 -04 N6T: 7.!:. *7 4 07 NNH . 161 04 N6H: .999 . 038 04 NCH: .042 71. 109. 04 NCX: 77. 04 NDX: 04 NL:. 77' 04 NMX: 79. 04 NNX: 76. 04 NGL1I: 9. 99 20 NTJ: 46. 8 04 NTK: 238. 20C) 04 N76 NGT' NDT': C04 NMT: N 4 FR: 04 07'T~ 04 ().4 9 '2 N:3:H: C.:4. 12 04 NEH N7C:: NCi': 2fC! N7T' 04 N-:_::)'. 0i4 N.:X: 2i0 NAX NEX: 0r4 NiG6: 04 4 -,. 9'7. 4 0C4 N/"r: 2.,) N: T: ,4 04 NLT'": ; / . 74. 04 NSC: 04 NT2: ).4 NCG1: -3 058 04 NBH: 02 NOH: .091 NNH: 0.4 N76: 04 NGC: . 029 04 N3H: 7 :E: NE: X NLX 4. 2C) NJF::. 02, . 04 )52 04 NEWH: 1 5 04 NGH: 0 6-3 04 N3C: .044 04 N36: . 104 999 20 N86: 999 20 NFC: . 037 26 04 NOC: . 016 04 NO6: . 088 179. 04 NT1: 10. 04 NG3: 121. 039 04 NIT: 91. 9 04 N2T: 100. 0 93. 04 N8T: 99. 9 20 NAT: 97. 6 0 04 NET: 95 3 04 NFT: 100. 0 100. 0 04 NOT: 97. 0 '2. 04 N6X: 999. 20 N7X: 80. 9/9. 20 NCX: 72. 78. 04 NDX: 7:. 04 NMX: o80. 04 NNX: 74. 1. 99 04 NTJ: 47. 3 04 NTK: 236. 91. 9 C)4 NNT: . 99 20 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 06 06 04 04 -107TABLE A.1.2 r(I:. 34 023 04 N2H: . 028 04 N8H: 20 NAH: . 072 N7H: I 035 0.39 04 NEW: . 129 04 NFH: . 219 NDH: .072 04 NNH: . 035 02 NOH: . 049 NMH: N7C:: . 013 04 N76: . 033 04 N8C: * 999 NF6: , 092 04 NOCC: . 005 04 NO,6: . 271 NON: NCG2: _ 6,8. NSS: N3T: -3. 4 (04 NT: 97. 4 04 N6T: NE-:T: 99P. 9 20 NrT: 98. 04 L, N1X: NSX: NEX: 75. NOX: 79.' NHR: OF 1:,. ,, 99 20 N1H: NC:T: 04 NLT' 04 N2X: 20 NAX: 04 NFX: 04 NG.-': 80. C , NO 1: 04 N4R: ., NON: 9. 99 20 N1H: N7H: . 033 NDlH: NMH: N7C:: () 7 _ . 020 04 N2H: 20 123 04 04 NNH: (135 N76: 0:32 04 NAH: NFH: NOH: N8C: NF.: . 1-5 04 NG:: NO2' 04 NG 1: NS -:: -3. 4 04 NT8: NST: Nl::T: NOT: NIX: N:, X: NEX: NO: NHR: 0.)4 N6-rT: 9 20 NC:T: 5,9 ."!: - . 999 20 NEH: 112 04 NNH: 035 02 NF6 (0)4 NE:T 04 NO1 97. 4 04 N6 : N76: NOC: .)4 NCT: (:0) 74. 04 NOX: NHR 7:. 04 0032 . 013 9'7. ) N2XY.; 76. 70. 77. NF X: 7:-:. ()4 NG9: : 4 '. '*"- 04 N4R: . 038 04 NOC: .013 04 N06: . 087 04 04 N03: 121. 04 .217 04 N6H: .999 NO'-; : 42. . . 027 . 061 . 259 057 . 99 . 288 179. . 041 93. 9 .0 91. 7 999. 78. 1. 99 c/ cc/ NAH: NFH: NOH: 04 04 04 04 20 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 20 04 04 N3H: NEH: NGH: N3C: N86: NOC: NT 1: N1T: N8T: NET: NMX: NT.J: 0 04. 6 04 0 04 0 04 20 N7X: 82. 06 NDX: 72. 06 04 NNX: 76. 04 NTK: 234. 04 04 . 175 04 N6H: .999 20 .000 05 NCH: NLH: . 066 04 N36: .999 20 NFC: 04 . 999 20 . 045 04 . 057 04 123 04 . 083 .085 .012 04 N04: 9. 04 NG3: 121. 04 04 04 91. 7 04 N2T: 100. 0 04 80. 04 48. 5 04 NNX: NTK: 04 04 04 06 06 77. 04 236. . 134 04 N6H: .999 999 20 NCH: .046 NOH: .000 05 NLH: .057 N3C: 0.38 04 N36: .089 N86: .999 20 NFC: .042 NOC: .014 04 NO6: .088 NT 1: 9. 04 N03: 121. N1T: 91. 7 04 N2T: 99. 9 NT: 99. 9 20 NAT: 97. NET: 95. 3 04 NFT: 100. 0 NNT: 100. 0 04 NOT: 96. 6 N6X: 999. 20 N7X: 81. NCX: 76. 04 NDX: 73. NMX: 81. 04 NNX: 76. NTJ: 52. 5 04 NTK: 236. N3H: .065 0)4 NBH: 9. 99 20 04 N2T: 100. 20 NAT: 97. 04 NFT: 100. 04 NOT: 96. 99. 9 20 NAT: 97. 6 95. 1 04 NFT: 100. 0 NNT: 100. 0 04 NOT: 96. 6 N6X: 999. 20 N7X: 81. NCX: 75. 04 NDX: 73. 20 .211 04 054 04 04 N;C: 999 $ 20 04 N06: .300 04 04 NT2: 179. 04 04 .040 04 20 N7rT: 9"::. 7 04 04 NDT: 0( 04 04 NMT: j1. 2 04 (04 N3X: 85. 04 04 NEX: 999. 20 04 NLX: 79. 04 04 NOILI: 1. 99 04 20( N R: 20 04 NCH: . 047 04 .000 05 NLH: . 051 04 N3C: .097 04 N36: . 165 04 20 N86: .999 20 NFC: . 045 04 ,,.' NL.T: 20 NAX: N8X- NBH: NOH: 20 N2H: .028 04 o999 0P4 N8H: 1\17C: NE X: 04 NT2: 8. 9 04 20 N1H: 07 0)4 04 012 C) 1 NMH 016 04 99. 9 20 N7T, 92. 9 04 NDT: i8. .(04 NLT: 96. 8 04 NMT: 74. 04 N2X: 75. 04 N3X: 2q' 73. 04 NEX: 7y::O. 04 NFX: 75. 04 NLX: 04 N G':: 42. 04 1 /%?, 04 N4R: "-" 99 2,'C NKrR: N: :'' 3:- NON: 9. N7H: NDH: : 97. 9. N3H: 49. 04 NT2: 179. 04 NT1: 10. 9. 9 04 NGS: . 039 '04 NIT: 92. 1 20 N7T: 93. 9 04 N8T: 99. 9 92.-- 04 NDT: . 0 04 NET: 95. 3 9'7. 04 NMT: 90. 8 04 NNT: 100. 0 '75. 04 N3X: 85. 04 N6X: 999. 73. 04 ND::X: 109. 04 NCX: 76. 78. 04 NMX: 82. 78. 04 NLX: 42. 04 NC U: 1. '9 04 NTJ: 49. 6 '-. 9' 20 N:::' 9. 99 20 O4 N8H: 04. NEH: . 011 04 04 04 04 04 04 20 04 04 04 04 04 04 20 04 04 04 06 06 04 04 -108TABLE A.1.2 09: 4 20 . .:.-:S:5 04 04 . 078 04 NON: N7H: NDH: NMH: N7C:: NF, : N1H: 03 04 N.H: 999 J 20 NAH: 105 04 NFH: NEH: NNH: . 0: 9 04 NOH: 04 N76: . 03.3 04 N8C: 04 NGC:: * 000 04 NG6: * 079 o,. 49. 04 NT2: NGi : 9 '77. 20 04 7.'-. 04 NI' : Nr X : NHIEX' NO~X N4Fr%: Nk- N' 20 N1 H-1 N77H '. 014 :)_:4 )04 NH:H NHR,;' 7.9' 4 C t, 04 NEH: 04 NNH: 04 N76,: NMH: N7C:: NF/ 0, 4 04 :: NG2: 0(4 -. 4 04 N=:T· 20 98-: 4 12t1 77. 79. NEX NO X N7'-I NDH NMH: 0 N7: : NGT NI X NE: X- NEX' N<R: :)4 NH: ",0 NAH (04 NFH: 4.? ..005 i1591 . 04 NOWH: 04 NCE::: 04 NGI: 49. 04 NT2: S. ? 0(4 NGS: NT:: 20 N7T C,-9 0(4 NilT: NC:T' 6. 18 04 NMT: 04 N3X: 73. NE:X: 78. 04 NLX NG?:: N4FR: 04 04 NO1: 04 --j'? N: H: NEH: NNH: . NGCr:: NTE:: 04 NGiJ: 42. N.H: 1,'1 04 N7,: 0)1 .59 4 85. 04 N6 X: 999. 20 N7X: 80. 74. 20 NC:X: 76. 04 NDX: 76. 79. 04 NMX: 82. 04 NNX: 04 NTJ: 50. 6 04 NTK: 240. 1. 9' 04 NFX: 04 0(77 04 -:, Nr3T N3X: C)4 2( ()4 1:35 NO2 91. 2 0:7 NAYX: 04 NC 1' NF6 9. '9',' 20 04 NLT ()4 NHR: 04 9 0(20 C NF::: 9. C04 . 100 04 .999 20 305 04 179. 04 038 04 93. 5 04 . 0 04 91. 2 04 84. 04 999. 20 79. 04 04 1. 99 146 . 116 ()4 NOH: N3fC: NO6: 04 NO ;: 999 2.91 04 NT2: 179. ... ) NK'H: 04 06 06 04 04 04 N36:. . 080 04 999 20 NFC: . 036 04 NOC:: . 021 04 N06: . 097 04 NT1: 9. 04 NG3: 121. 04 N3C : .037 N86: . NiT: 91. 7 N8T: 99. 9 NET: 95. 3 NNT: 100. 0 N6X: 999. NCX: NMX: NTJ: 77. 79. 50. 04 N2T: 99. 9 20 20 NAT: 99. 8 04 04 04 NFT: 100. 04 NOT: 96. 6 04 20 04 04 04 N7 X: 80. NDX: 74. NNX: 74. NTK: 236. 06 06 04 04 121 04 N6H: . 999 20 04 04 NGH: 04 04 N3C: 0.44 04 N36: . 083 04 20 N86: . 999 20 NFC: . 026 04 04 NOC: . 025 04 N06: . 100 04 04 NT1: 9. 04 N03: 121. 04 04 NIT: 91. 4 04 N2T: 100. 0 04 04 N8T: 99. 9 20 NAT: 99. 8 04 039 . 999 20 NCH: . 063 . 000 05 NLH: . 041 '-7. 4 04 N:,T: ?9. 9 20! N7T: 93. 5 '??. 9 2i ) NC;T: ' 2. '7 04- NDT: .0 04 NET: 95. 3 T:: 2 0(4 NLT 6. 6 04 NMT: 90. O 04 NNT: 100. 0 7 6, 04 N2X: 74. 0(4 N3X: 84. 04 N6X: 999. .. )( N AX 7:3:. 04 NLIBX 20 NC:X: 78. 7' -:'. 04 NF: 77 (04 NL X: 77. 04 NMX: 78. C'4. Nf)'9 42 04 NGU. 1. 99 04 NTJ: 47. 1 .., 1 ....:? . 0')4 N4R 04 9. 99 20 NFH: 4'.-.,'. 04 20 N3H: . 109 04 N6H: . 999 O20 999 20 NCH: . 035 04 132 04 NGH: .000 05 NLH: . 043 04 04 N2H; .02/, C.)4 N3H: 20! NAH: 115 04 NBH: 04 20 . 062 04 NBH: 04 1000 04 20 9C 8 04 035 04 NG3: 121. 04 N2T: 99. 9 20 NAT: 97. 4 04 NFT: 100. '0 NNT: 100. 0 04 NOT: 96. 4 NMT: 71. 04 NE:X: 77. 04 NLX: 42. 04 NGi : 75.' 04 N2X: NIX: 09.:44 NGIC:: NG1i: 97. 4 04 N':T: N3-:T: 7/:. NAX: NFX: 04 ., 179. :-:.", 04 I9:. 4 04 NLT: 75. 04 N2X: N IR.X : .999 20 N3H: . 110 04 N6H: . 999 20 . 053 04 NBH: . 999 20 NCH: .038 04 . 178 04 NGH: . 000 05 NLH: .052 04 . 090 04 N3C: . 050 04 N36: . 087 04 . 999 20 N86: . 999 20 NFC: .041 04 . 300 04 NOC: . 022 04 N06: . 096 04 04 NT1: 9. . 038 04 N1T: 91. 6 N7T: 93. 7 04 N8T: 99. 9 .0 04 NET: 95. 3 20 NC:T: 92. 7 )04 NDT: 04 NS,:: -3. 4 04 NT:--:: 04 N6T: N-_-:T: 97. NE:T: NOT: N2H: .. 9 / 20 04 04 20 04 04 04 NFT: 100. 0 04 NOT: 96. 6 04 N7X: 82. NDX: 73. NNX: 75. NTK: 236. 06 06 04 04 -1U9TABLE A.1.2 im~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 09: 46 NON: 9. 99 20 N1H: . 021 04 N2H: . 026 04 .,._, 04 N8H: . 999 20 NAH: . Q80 04 N7H: 119 04 NDH: * 03. 04 NEH: . 120 04 NFH: . 079 04 NNH:. 039 04 NOH: . 105 04 NMH: N7C: NFL: * 012 04 N76: . 035 )06504 NOC: . 009 6:9. 04 NC 2 NO1: -3. 4 04 NT8: 49. 8. 9 7. 8 04 NU'T: 100. NET. 100. 0 00 NCT: 98. 4 N3T NGT: NIX 97. 4 04 NLT: 9$8 4 74. 04 N2X: 75. 99'.-, 20 N8X: 80 04 78$C. 04 NEX: NCX : 09: 48 NAX: 74. NFX: N0G: 76. 42. NHR: 9 1?-.'04 N4FR' 9. 9 NONl: . C19 N7H NDH: NMH: * 077 N7' NF6: NG2: . 01:3 , O 1 68. NS8: -3. 4 N3T: 9:8. 0 NET: 9. 9 NGT: N1X 97. 4 74. N: X' NEX: 80. N.0X: NH: 9. C)9 09:0 ' NON:9. 20() 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 20 04 04 20 04 04 04 NCGC: NG 1: NT8: N6T: NC:T: NLT: N2X: NAX: NFX: NO9: N4R: 99 20 N1H: 04 053 04 NMH: Q079 04 N7C:: .012 04 NF -: 081 04 NG2: 68. 04 -3. 4 04 N3T: 97. 2 04 NE:T: 97. 4 04 NGT: 97. 4 04 74. 04 NIX: NSX: 20 77. 04 NEX: 79. 04 C'.99- 04 I\IHEs: N7H: NDH: N1H: N8H: NEH: NNH: N7/:,: N8H: NEH: NNH: N76: NOC: NG1: NT8: N6T: 75. 74. 77. 42. 9. 98 2,C N<R: NGH: .000 05 NLH: .045 04 9°99 20 . 026 04 . 065 04 N3H: NBH: . 150 04 N6H: . 999 20 . 999 20 NCH: .040 04 .000 05 NLH: .051 04 . 45 04 N36: . 091 04 .121 04 NGH: .111 04 N3C: 999 20 N86: . 999 20 285 04 NOC: . 021 04 10. 04 179. 04 NT 1: 039 04 N1T: 93. 3 04 20 N7T: 95. 7 04 N8T: 99. 9 20 .0 04 NET: 95. 8 04 04 NDT: 04 NMT: 90. 4 04 NNT: 100. 0 04 )04N3X: 85. 04 N6X: 999. 20 04 NBX: 999. 20 NCX: 75. 04 77. 04 NMX: 82. 04 04 NLX: 04 NOU: 1. 99 04 NTJ: 48. 7 04 NKR: 9. 99 20 019 04 N2H: . 026 20 NAH: 080 104 04 NFH: . 176 0.42 04 NOH: . 104 .033 04 004 . 04 49. NBH: . 999 20 NCH: .049 04 N3C: . 049 04 N36: .088 04 04 NC: 999 20 N86: . 999 20 NFC: . 036 04 04 NGk6: .295 04 NOC: . 020 04 N06: .099 04 04 NT2: 179. 04 NTI1: 10. 04 N03: 121. 04 04 NOS: .040 04 N1T: 95. 7 04 N2T: 100. O 04 07 N7T: 95. 7 04 N8T: 99. 9 20 NAT: 99. 6 04 . 0 04 NET: 95. 3 04 NFT: 100. O0 04 04 NDT 04 NMT: 90. 6 04 NNT: 100. 0 04 NOT: 96. 4 04 04 N3X: 83. 04 N6X: 999. 20 N7X: 80. 06 04 NEX: 999; 20 NCX: 77. 04 NDX: 71. 06 77. 04 77. 04 NMX: 80. 04 NNX: 04 NLX: 04 NCiIU: 1. 99 04 NTJ: 48. 7 04 NTK: 236. 04 . 021 04 N2H: . 999 20 NAH: . 113 04 NFH: . 040 04 NOH: 034 04 NSC: *003 04 NG6: 04 NT2: 8. 9 04 NOS: 98. 2 97. 8 N3H: . 129 04 N6H: .999 20 N8C: NG6: 04 NT2: 8.9P 04 NGS: 99. 9 20 N7T: .98. 4 04 NDT: 04 04 04 04 · 999 20 .285 04 179. 04 N3H: .119 NBH: N3C: N86: NOC: NT1: . 038 04 NIT: NFC: .034 04 N06: .098 04 NG3: 121. 04 N2T: 99. 6 04 NAT: 99. 6 04 NFT: 100. 0 04 NOT: 98. 6 04 N7X: 80. 06 NDX: 71. 06 NNX: 77. 04 NTK: 236. 04 04 N6H: . 999 20 . 999 20 NCH: .054 04 . 0b0 05 NLH: . 053 04 . 046 04 N36: . 087 04 . 999 20 NFC: . 049 04 04 N06: . 097 04 9. 04 NG3: 121. 04 93. 3 04 N2T: 98. 4 04 · 020 95. 7 04 N8T: 99. 9 20 NAT: 99. 6 04 .0 04 NET: 96. 0 04 NFT: 100. O0 04 NLT: 97. 8 04 NMT: 90. 8 04 NNT: 100. 0 04 NOT: 98. 6 04 N2X: 76. 04 N3X: 83. 04 N6X: 999. 20 N7X: 81. 06 NAX: 71. 04 NBX: 999. 20 NCX: 75. 04 NDX: 72. 06 NCT: 78. 04 NLX: 78. 04 NMX: 80. 04 NNX: 76. 41. 04( NGIJ: 1. 99 04 NTJ: 49. 6 04 NTK: 236. N4R: 9. 99 NK.R: 9. 99 20 NFX: NO.i: ., 04 04 -110TABLE A.1.3 r 'Vl tlONUNTAIRESEARCH i. I PSEURG.. PA. + TU'-! ?COGY I .TE 4i4R W19 I3 ":(;:?ID VALUES REPiES,EII'Ir WIND E tLE'INGTON. MASSACHUSETTS 02173 1(.-4 ISTRIBUTION IN PERCENT*** I -111- TABLE A.1.3 s--r ,, 1,)q~I'St? Th:.P, ' -" Th;l-r l~Th!t.ENHfTAcL ",it. ;.' I D VAiLUi3 TECH:> !LOGY RE¶M7 AEc1i* R -....-.. -· L?.XI 'tNGTON. MASSACHlUSETTS 'SIND UtISTI'R-fUiUIlI 02173 IN PERCENT>** OVER 17.9 10 Ii..+ 7. 4.$O. 1 10 1+TO 10 10 f I F -112- TABLE A.1.3 YNV IRf-t.Ot' .NTAL * t'o l _i''-,G '*4Gi:L)J RESEARCH + TECHFNOLOf,Y L{7XINGTON. PA. i., S,~ *t .-.I O';!. FS 1 S5-54 VALUES EPRESENT WIND DISTRiBUTION MASSACHUSETTS 02173 IN PERCENT** ! -113TABLE A.1.3 LEXINGTON. MASSACHUSETTS tI: lv!RONMENTAL RESEARCH + TECFlKOLt OGY SE 1950 PERCENT ' ! P..PS3URG.PA. A UMN WITD WINO DISTRIBUTION IN PERCE-NT*** <4;1Z0}DVA..UEfS REPRESi-,T 02173 OVR 17. 21. rl3 7TO :I. 0 11.S. 7. S. 10 I0. 4. O 0. T10 TO ,. 3. -114- TABLE A.1.3 -i.N'!RONMENTALRESARC + TECHNOLOGY LEXINGTON. ,it!rIPSilURG, PA.. ANNtl(Jt W1I NDR;:SE 1350-54 -:', MASSACHUSETTS 02173 RID VALUES REPRES2. T WIND OiSTRIBU'ITION IN PERCENT*-* OVEl 27.0 O10 I1.. 0T 7. l0 TO 4.0+ 10 a. . 10 B -115TABLE A.1.3 ' IVIRONMEENTALRESEARCH + TL:t!l?,OLOGY LEXINGTON, LTT;NA., PA. . WINTER NWIROFO!E349- 4 *'rRID VALUES REFPESENT W1NC)0 DISTRi2; UJTION IN MASSACHUSETTS 02173 ERCENT* * B -116TABLE A.1.3 t VIRONMENTAL RESEARCH + TECHNOLOGY LEXINGTON. MASSACHUSETTS 02173 .TO)NA. PA., A SPRING WINDROSE 1949-54 ('"RI1 VALUES REPRESMENT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN PERCENT*** -117TABLE A.1.3 LEXINGTON. MASSACHiUSETTS 02173 'NIRONMENTAL RESEARCH + TEClNOLOGY .L'ti'O,!. PA., SUMiER WINOROSE 949~-54 *#' .P,1D VALUES REPRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN PERCENT#** I -118- TABLE A.1.3 ESEARC:- + T-(.:t'I,;OLOGY LEXINGT,'I, . TC.)NA, PA. AU'lIJTl. tJINO!(.":. 15!'3,: "i *[)l VALUESNT WEiErNr D ISTS[I IJTION IN F jVI1?ON,"'ENTAL MASSACHUSETTS . PERCENT * 4 021'73 . I :i -119TABLE A.1.3 iNVIIRONMENTAL RESEARCH , TECHNCLOGY LEX IiNGTON. MHA1S3ACHUSETTS 02173 \LTIONA. ·4 i'()RlO PA.. ANNUAL WIINOI.OSE 191'9-54 VALUES REPRESENIT WI O uSTRI UTrIO. I IN PERC' ,NT** * -120- ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH + TECHNOLOGY PI'TTSBURGH, PA. . ANUAL LEXINGTON. MASSACHUSETTS STAR WINOROSE 1965-69 #*'GRID VALUES REPRESENTWIND DISTRIBUTION TAB L E IN PERCENT*** A.1.3 02173 -121- LEXINGTON. fNVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH + TECHNOLOGY F'ITTSBURGH. PA., WINTER STAR WINDROSE 1965-69 4**GRID VALUES REPRESENTWIND DISTRIBUTION TABLE MASSACHUSETTS IN PERCENT*** A.1.3 02173 -122- L.NVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH + TECHNOLOGY LEXINGTON. MASSACHUSETTS 02173 PITTSBURGHI PA.. SPRING STAR WINDROSE 1965-69 i'**GRIO VALUES REPRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN PERCENT*** T A B L E A.1.3 -123- E,!VIRONMENTAL RESEARCH + TECHNOLOGY LEXINGTON. PTTSBURGH. PA.. SUMMER STAR WINDROSE 1965-69 l*IGRIDVALUES REPRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION T A B L E MASSACHUSETTS 02173 IN PERCENTA*E A.1.3 -124- -N'IRONMENTAL RESEARCH + TECHNOLOGY LEXINGTON. MASSACHUSETTS 02173 'Ii TSBURGH. PA. AUTlUWN STAR WINDROSE 19S5-69 * *GRID VALUES REPRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN PERCENT*** T A B L E A.1. 3 -125TABLE A.1.4 Pittsburgh Mixing Depth Data* Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn Mixing Layer Depth (Mornings) 540 m 660 m 595 m 395 m 510 m Mixing Layer Depth (Afternoons) 1550 m 1000 m 1900 m 1900 m 1400 m Average Wind Speed Through Mixing Layer (Mornings) 5.lm/s 6.5m/s 5.9m/s 3.5m/s Average Wind Speed Through Mixing Layer (Afternoons) 7.lm/s 8.0m/s 8.4m/s 5.6m/s 4.5m/s 6.3m/s Two Day Duration Episodes(5 year data) Mixing Height m Wind Speed Episodes Episode Days Season m/s 500 500 500 2 0 0 4 1 3 3 1000 1000 1000 1500 1500 1500 2000 2000 2000 2 0 0 4 6 6 16 10 29 6 2 0 0 4 16 36 39 98 6 2 1 2 4 32 77 6 81 225 -w w w w a a su a a Five Day Duration Episodes(5 year data) Mixing m IIeight Wind Speed m/s 500 500 1000 1000 1500 4 1500 6 4 2000 2000 6 4 6 4 6 *Source:[olzworth,(l)] Episodes 0 0 0 Epispode Days 0 0 0 0 5 0 2 11 0 5 0 31 1 Season w a -126- Chestnut Ridge AIRMAPNetwork A.2 The Chestnut Ridge AIRMAPnetwork consists of three major components: 1) Sensors and station 2) Telecommunication system 3) Central facility computers and meteorological data facilities acquisition equipment. A.2.1 Sensors and Station Facilities For S2 measurements, the AIRPJAPsystem uses the metric total sulfur sensor with automatic calibration, cooling, and hydrogen shut-off options. Meloy flame photo- thermoelectric These sensors have been modified by ERT so that initiation of the calibration cycle, sensing of flameouts, and reignitionof the hydrogen flame are all central computer. is used. performed remotely by the For NO/NO 2 the Thermo-Electron chemiluminescent sensor For wind speed, wind direction, temperature, and temperature differential, CLIMET sensors are used. The sulfur and nitrogen sensors, together with the meteorological amplifiers and telUmietryelectronics, are operated in air conditioned, temperature-controlled enclosures. These enclosures are maintained near 680 F throughout the year. The complete Chestnut Ridge network comprises sixteen sites, as is shown in Figure A.2.1. Each is equipped with a Meloy sulfur analyzer and a coefficient-of-haze (COH) analyzer. chemiluminescent sensors for NO/NOx. at the Penn View site follows: on the crest Six of the sites have Thermo-Electron The 300-,footmeteorological tower of Chestnut Ridge is instrumented as at the 33-foot level, wind speed wind direction, and temperature; at the 150-foot level, temperature difference from the 33-foot level; and -127- .0..;-.- NETWORKS Keystone ^P6 .... ,wo~u ... .- u' : l.. rr 4W~a· }tA¢s : ie~o R w Conemaugh Seward 'W 2-- K1 i,, L's>H4- ? P1 C9rdoerC 9- ' _ · , 3W"z. SKIMEETER. .. ' Homer City '. .t .&k F,. AUGI$ RAIN i K s,+;f *tu werP/d;~?fil , ,. 7i 1..... > lwly i.RY8' a! . - AN.. PL1 POWR "....K1 CerOURCE I ... SG S1S02' H1 ~ ' . · " .. 4 ' 32 0 L usKILOMETERS A 3rdy KM .owI~j/ Station Designation ERT Penelec Name Old Penelec ERT Penelec Name Old Penelec C1 C3 C2 S3 1 2 3 6 Ci P5 C2 P4 West Fair feld Florence Substation Laurel Ridge Armagh H5 H6 H7 H2/T2 D E F G P2 H1 P1 H2 Penn Run Brush Valley Liggett Penn View 7 Si Gas Kl L K1 Creekside Si HI H3 H4 A B C P3 H3 H4 K3 K4 K2 M N 0 K3 P6 K2 Girdy Keystone Pa rkwood Center Luciusboro Lewisville Lodge Rustic Dam -128- a bivane. The processing of the output from the bivane requires a major revision of the AIRMAP program, which has not yet been implemented. Ten of the sixteen SO 2 monitoring stations of the Chestnut Ridge AIRMAP network have been operating in the real-time mode since 1 June 1974. Three stations came on line shortly thereafter in June. remaining three came on in July. The The seventeenth planned S02 monitor, originally intended for location in Seward, Pennsylvania, was dropped from the system because of Penelec's difficulty in finding a site. Siting difficulties also caused the second meteorological tower to be eliminated. Because of the union construction problems mentioned in Section 2.0.1 above, the meteorological tower at the Penn View site was not brought on line and calibrated until August 16. Consequently no hourly averaged meteorological data has been available as model input, nor has the low-level thermal stratification been measured. A.2.2 AIRMAP Telecommunications Systems The AIRMAP telecommunications system permits the computer at ERT AIRMAP Central to acquire data and status information from each of the air quality analyzers and meteorological instruments control functions at remote locations. and to initiate In addition, it provides for remote printing of system-generated information obtained from the acquired data. The link between AIRMAP Central in Lexington, Mass. and tiheinstrument sites consists of a set of telephone lines and transponders which convert digital circuit logic levels to other tones for transmission and back to logic voltage levels upon reception. -129The telephone lines used are unconditioned voice grade, private line data channels. They have sufficient noise immunity so that data loss from cross-talk and random noise from the transmission lines has been negligible. Total costs, including central station termination charges, also favor using these lines. Attenuation due to line length is highly compensated by the Bell System, and loading effects are also compensated so that a large number of terminals single computer data port (limited by noise). can be connected to a The current system uses shared telephone circuits in that ten or more remote instrument sites can be connected to a single telephone line. Telemetry equipment for the AIRMAP System was designed jointly at ERT and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). one transponder. Each site has Up to 16.separate voltage-producing devices (instruments) can be connected to this interface. The central computer sends out a coded binary word to which only one transponder responds. Part of that binary word also designates one of the 16 input channels to the transponder. The transponder responds by opening the channel to the de- sired device and for some designated period of time, the signal from that device is sampled by the AIRMAP Central computer. The transponder logic is very general and is used without modification to control and transmit all output to remote teletypes. These tele- typewriter outputs can be transmitted on the same dedicated lines as the sensors. Another important feature of the transponders is that they also transmit the setting of three sense switches that indicate to the AIRMAP Central computer exactly what state the analyzer is in, be it normal, calibrate test, etc. This allows erroneous values to be excluded from the -130statistics. Because of the real-time control features of the ERT telemetry system, the field operation and maintenance personnel hate the following increased capabilities: 1) Ability to evaluate current status of analyzers without visiting each site (thus, enabling maintenance personnel to visit stations that have malfunctioning sensors as fast as possible) 2) Ability to spot instrument malfunctions that occur after a site has been visited during a given work day 3) Ability to activate a dynamic calibration cycle at any time 4) Ability through computer control to automatically reignite flameouts on any Meloy instrument within the 1-minute interrogation cycle. In addition, the implementation of an automatic rezero capability in the real-time system tends to restrict zero baseline drifts to an absolute minimum. All of these features of the ERT telemetry system reduce the amount of unnecessary lost data and thus increase the total data capture rate. A.2.3. AIRMAP Central: Computers and Meteorological Data Acquisition Equipment The heart of AIRMAP Central consists of two identically configured 32K-word memory Data General computers. The reasons for twosuch units are: (1) complete redundancy can be provided if one unit should fail for any reason, (2) programming and off-line data processing can be accomplished with the computer that is not gathering data and (3) the second computer -131is available for running the ERT air quality prediction models. Both computers operate from a real-time operating system, meaning that they can conduct many tasks simultaneously, greatly increasing the efficiency of both machines. priority First priority is the data interrogation routine. Second is processing of the data as it comes in to analyze and calib- rate the raw data and compute short-, intermediate-, and long-term averages and other statistics. The third level of priority is to transmit di- gested data to remote readout sites. satisfied, up to 13 other After these three tasks have been levels of priority can be specified. Reliability of the ERT real-time AIRMAP system is demonstrated by the fact that real-time data capture averaged 91.5% for the year 1973 for all sensors in the operational networks. Weather data are continuously supplied to AIRMAP Central by means of a Service "A" weather teletype, which transmits weather observations at least once each hour from more than 200 cities Western Union Service forecasts; "C" teletype, which sends upper air and a national weather facsimile of the latest in the United States; a observations and machine, which produces copies surface and upper air charts and forecast maps. These weather data are used for the analysis of air quality as a function of meteor- ological conditions and as input to the predictions of air quality. -132- A.3 CONTROL This Appendix contains general samples of the data relevant to the control strategy. In all cases the material here is backed up in depth by more precise information. The information contained here is given only as an indication of the magnitudes of the important parameters. Overall System Table A.3.1 on the next three pages shows the sizes, types and capacities of all the units involved in GPU (the service corporation which owns Penelec). The following two pages show the locations of these plants on a map of the GPU system. This information is important because the operation of the GPU system is coordinated at the power pool level (Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland) and so all of these plants, and the others in PJM as well, are available for picking up the load shifted from the facilities concerned. The four plants specifically included in this project comprise the largest complex of coal-burning power stations in the United States. The ownership of these generating stations, along with some general characteristics are listed below in Table A.3.2. -133TABLE A.3.1 GPU SERVICE CORPORATION System Capacity As of June 1, 1974 Station (Coal, Gas or Oil Fired) Station (Coal, Gas or Oil Fired) Net Capability (Mw) Unit Summer Winter Shawville 1 116 2 3 4 Homer City 1 2 Net Capability (Mw) Unit Summer Winter Gilbert 123 172 172 121 128 178 178 583 605 Werner 1-2-3-5 4 Seward 3-4 5 1 2 46 72 73 119 300 300 1 3 15 4 58 300 300 600 '6o'o 90 82 1-2-3 4 5 28 28 'i8 110 79 81 137 218 Keystone 40 Conemaugh 136 215 ,arren 45 3 117 Sayreville Front Street 1-2 40 40 80 1 2 40 17 17 15 88 60 94 84 122 123 329 126 127 373 137 136 273 137 136 273 90 140 140 1 2 80 280 I Saxton Williamsburg 5 Portland 2 Crawford Titus 1-2-3-4 1 3 Eyler 35 2-3 30 31 158 156 246 246 Total Coal, Gas or Oil Fired o402 Station (Nuclear) 111 113 Oyster Creek 78 80 78 8O 78 80 715 54 1 3547 3597 620 650 -134TABLE A.3.1 Station (Combustion Turbine) .-- Station (Combustion Turbine) Net Capability (Mw) Winter Unit Summer Net Capability (Mw) Unit Summer Winter Blossburg 1 20 27 Wayne 54 73 Warren 55 73 1 21 2 21 3 21 27 27 27 Hunterstown Glen Gardner A-1 A-2 A-3 A-4 B-5 B-6 B-7 B-8 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 19-8 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 216' -6Sayreville Portland 3 4 15 21 3 Titus 4 5 15 16 31 19 27 C-1 C-2 C-3 -%-g c-4 19 20 39 Orrtanna 1 21 27 Hamilton 1 21 27 Shawnee 1 21 27 Tolna 1 21 21 27 27 1 21 2 21 27 27 Riegel C-1 22 28 Gilbert C-1 C-2 C-3 C-4 25 32 25 25 25 56 32 32 2 Mountain 4 5 6 7 56 56 56 32 72 72 72 72 71T Werner C-1 C-2 C-3 C-4 Total Combustion Turbines 53 73 53 73 53 53 212 73 292 53 73 53 73 53 53 212 73 292 1344 1772 73 73 - IjTABLE A.3.1 - Station (Hydro - Conventional or P.S.) Station (Diesel) Net Capability (Mw) Winter Summer Unit Net Capability (Mw) Winter Summer Unit Shawville Homer City 5 4 5 6 Benton 2 1 Yards Creek 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 6 6 1 1 1 1 3 3 2 2 2 Seneca 55 55 55 55 55 76 76 1 9 2 9 9 9 9 1) 1 2) 3) 1 Piney 2 3 10 27 Keystone 3-4-5-6 2 2 Conemaugh A-B-C-D 2 2 1 2 Deep Creek Total Diesel 17 17 York Haven Total GPU System PP&L Purchase - 6/1/74 ME JC EDJ 6/1/74 9 10 9 IT 19 296 302 5824 6338 190 0 6014 6338 20 Units Total Hydro Conventional & P.S. PN 9 1923 1559 2532 1988 1460 2890 I Jidl-- - L a k e On . GENERAL PUBLIC UTILITIES CORPORATION SYSTEM MAP, I POWER NEW I JERSEY POWER CENTRAL JERSEY t&LIGHT COMIPNY tT ^" Lke CsA . ~ I T\ 50 r | 9X4~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ I 2 '4 I ~ ~ --- LobiFames in ~m N£ C , T Sumit i...... .F....t DI V.. XIOY ,'xi-te 1.tenngo ii4~| .hl|~~~ ,_- Ne,w \ArmZ , |Ru~ 7 .. 'Lenno f L~~~~~ 4 . ._. _. .| fe*_-et. Pik. tf}I'llsivel-. 1OI C 1. 1 P(I , & bhtt / Eo MIII~r~mC /)4*St ta i rat N _fb!T 0 N *2 \\ 2 A Chedi, / ) Hadsnn Central L P & Jersey Nave ,a- I aplel I tD NJ~~~~~~~~~~~~FrnyP _ Ci)~ ~ ._ 1~ry ~ RM ~ ~ ~ IRvr ~ Cumberland P l,, Oay~~~~~Dxg V DL _N- _ ,u .LreaE-STENd ~ ~~~~Ar11 1 5DIW- \ JO.NSWN N yl I. , ,_, I~~^-( ~I 'a H e *I I/ I iiP,uvuiaiS. Pe.is &LlnnCwiis -I , ih' iaI'J.S I /l iltiN. Ed I,//nirii J I & . - Puli Seyc ® rs ®CetrlylPennsylvania lec. - Cleveland le lllumnI.n(Cv I L _ 8.ejemle r @ · PeMr T,d S..C P &L. - P~bilC C~niX~l I n@dJer"Y I-- ,tr N th '\ i Was~~rN3T'2 fr2 >Wteolne W .. 7 £aa \ S~Inatronnoeton r", I. , I: Rist ~~~~~~~~~~~~a: (9 Pen -ylvm4 / 4 2 Kiunin rim e SLrngdal ~ Samm I,' . ,~ ,o-t a/ - I *~~~~~~~~- s~*1 t C__. ,s.liER-j// 9 Os _1 *',^" % v\\I1$ o _°A {d 1~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ iiayldala I t/l R T H E R N T I ERtnbJJ kvN ':~o.~, >(( b Sirk-----emi --- Tbmle u~lic n 5} Goi R I DIV. ElmhoteenA uN.Y. \ lll ~~~~ .- w~o re Eawr_ Wdunbrw _-_ Rd.> Cold Springs ~r F~~~nbom ~ ~ ~S. I U ~~~~~~~~~2 CMM ~ -~~ S-> ¢<Jet. 4 /53 4,;~~~~~~~~~~ , ~4~~ 40 c,=j,Z. kCrgS. ... U SF nctD. b F ASHTABULA , Districtor Business Offices Sc ale of Mil es 30 20 .tz t HE\ s Ito// G er - COMPANY &LIGHT Division Headquarters 10 o ni f I 2-4 EDISON M METROPOLITAN COIPY Company Headquarters / / ELECTRIC PENNSYLVANIA COMPANY - H JUNE 1, 1972--laa"- I , 4 i o tar & ~ L ~ ~ SOTO ~ ~ ~ ~ Gunl L-HfW /d .1~ C~~.\Žu S~onewaN~~ - ~ / - . 4. ~ ~ Ou On \:\9,,JA'1 -1 &atI No11. L*Mt*1~-I~ _2flf/ ye~| T. T lb. 4millz/ e Fls Ir8;;r ci ~-"--" ,.,. oL ;, 24(-2-R c, / 1>t\\SiR#XX /" - ° k / jLIfB N. -s rli v. 8'%iril. (~ddMinpon Rd ~ . t*4iclm IYwrhllt .',|,. 0=-~' ~ - , s.~ \4r rkrkrCM, _ (SLLn-ra) Hill f p Nonvich I : --n ;l\H~-" ' R \, t ii C , . 2~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~vl iIi-,aca othr~m 2l neF a on, ,,/Golle nril Pknrkhto pi~l~nlbdl Sp\e hdsilS w } -"'lnd .. _ iAUÆC Ea BlCeim-Gi T An ~ AIjltMASS. / / 5 lP I ~ I Nd.. I Ce I , ~CN M A0 J~ , ~~~~~~~~~~~~~, Wb~'/ /1 w"t.u. \~' II~ ~ ~ ~ ~~w .... EAS~~~~r 4 7dw I) \\ ... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~R \ ~'¢~ J~~~~~~~~~~~nri~~~~~~~n~Di PIkt I ; ... ""~hld.... W$b IthK 42b ' 2 ' Stiluvimnr\ W. Lounrbmy I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ou~~~~~~~y n\irm^!>ge jlibn~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~i ;II g: W " 20K 5 >ka~~~~~~~~~~~ imbu~ ~~~~~~~~Crn ~ n Roseland~ -k g rwood( DIV. I ~' 'T Rdnilk 2 r"~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~N w LEBANON · ~, f~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~, 2 , -T 'CE 1 N "~loton DIV "om~'~~ s~ RNcl~,n! ~~~~~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Ni~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ -, - Udemontrcto Ul ,,mu^.O.m i"f ,,., :< '~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ '"¢~~~~~~~~~~~~~ L ~~~~l~irI;W··, unbu~~~~~~~~~ Hlnaod ~n dTkonin SC ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 4ij~~~~~~~~Z* Um DIV.35V 0-1 i~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Z- utr D~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~6 ~~~~~~~~~c ~~ ~ ~ I 'c~get' H " " i 3CAS mli p#WI( ~.do, u Lo"kd 'ulnh ~R" t 2 DV Lanrt cami~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~rnnlilf I IYe· ?~ TA B- 15V3CK -- Itl ~ - 1~~~~~ L~~~~~krA~o,,ntoal- ~ ~~~~~~,~~~~~"d o l~~~~~~~~~~~~yr -. g , ,,,o c~~~~~~ r ~ u \']' 7- ~ '.R~d~ r~~icYA I ; : - 2LowKr tam Ds c a,, WWI#~ ~ ~ * ~ ~ '1 ' v.n,4m,' a I c umpd [ Hdr Su'bUtion Trbs Future r E =ik~~lV~~i~~tr '- uue230K =. [] ISOLv', '~~S D)~ri~ 15K :, Ikam~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~L Sbttono ln ~b : Subtation,P Fn t&Town -138- TABLE A.3.2 PLANT CAPACITIES AND ENTITLEMENTS (1973 ELECTRICAL WORLD-DIRECTORY OF ELECTRIC UTILITIES) KEYSTONE - Shelocta, Pa. PSE&G BG&E PECO JCP&L PP&L DELMARVA ACEC 24.7% 19.9 19.9 427,565 Kw 344,000 344,000 273,000 231,000 64,306 44,460 15.8 13.4 3.7 2.6 PLANT TOTAL CAPACITY Unit 1 1,728,331 9698 Btu/kwh 900,000 KWi 900,000 KW) NOMINAL (LAPPES) Unit 2 9864 I! CONEMAUGH - Huff, Pa. (On Conemaugh River) PSE&G PECO METED PP&L 421,200 352,000 308,000 213,000 180,000 166,100 64,482 62,630 BG&E PEPCO ACEC DELMARVA PLANT TOTAL CAPACITY Unit 1 Kw 1,767,612 900,000) 9698 Btu/kwh ) NOMINAL (LAPPES) Unit 2 9864 II 900,000) HOMER CITY- Homer City, Pa. PENELEC NYSE&G CORP. 659,700 KW 659,700 50% 50 PLANT TOTAL CAPACITY Unit 1,319,400 640,000 KW| 10,251 Btu/kwh 1 NOMINAL (LAPPES) Unit 2 10,112 II 640,000 KW SEWARD- Seward, Pa. 100% PENELEC 222,000 KW PLANT TOTAL CAPACITY Units 2-3-4 Unit 5 222,000 85,000 KW 9993 Btu/kwh 137,000 KW -139- ACEC - Atlantic City Electric Co. - NJ BG&E - Baltimore Gas & Electric - Ma DELMARVA - Delaware-Maryland-Virginia Power Co. - Del. JCP&L - Jersey CentraT-Power & Light - NJ METED - Metropolitan Edison - Pa. NYSE&G Corp. - N.Y. State Electricity & Gas Corp. PECO - Philadelphia Electric Co. - Pa. PENELEC - Pennsylvania Electric Co. - Pa. PEPCO - Pittsburgh Electric Power Co. -Pa. PP&L - Pennsylvania Power & Light - Pa. PSE&G - Public Service Electric and Gas - NJ Fuel Characteristics and Processing A previous study (LAPPES) shows some typical data on the variations of the coal characteristics from a given plant. These variations are still evident in the operation of the plants. Keystone Station ,4arcn 1968 Series Moisture (%) 3.20 Volatile Matter (%) Fixed Carbon (%) 29.94 48.08 16.66 2.12 12,093 6,718 Ash (%) Sulfur (%) Btu per Pound Calories per Gram Keystone Station July 1968 Series Moisture (% Volatile Matter (%) Fixed Carbon (%) Ash (%) Sulfur (%) Stu per Pound Calories per Gram Keystone Station May 1968 Series 3.83 29.65 48.67 15.67 2.18 12,081 6,711 Moisture (%) Volatile Matter (%) Fixed Carbon (%) Ash (%) Sulfur (%) Btu per Pound Calories per Gram Keystone Station October 1968 Series Moisture Volatile Matter (%) Fixed Carbon (%) Ash (%) Sulfur (%) Btu per Pound Calories per Gram 3.32 30.19 47.81 16.48 2.20 12,053 6,695 3.72 29.27 47.36 17.29 2.36 11,847 6,581 The variation of the sulfur percent, which is generally normalized to account for variation in Btu per pound, is not a gradual change. In fact, the percent sulfur can vary by a factor of three from one lump of coal to the next. Since utilities must stay below standards by the amount of uncertainty they have in their measurements, there are millions of dollars lost. Nuclear metering methods are underway to eventually yield a contin- uous readout of the sulfur content of the incoming coals. -140There is also significant variation in coal characteristics from one plant to the next at the same point in time. TABLE A.3.3 STATION TONS APRIL 1974 Weiahted Averaae ~ ~ ~~~~~~~.. BTU MOISTURE ASH KEYSTONE 393,981 11,902 2.81 18.95 2.16 CONEMAUGH 252,598 11,426 5.23 18.49 2.29 HOMER CITY 158,951 11,762 3.92 19.30 2.29 SHAWVILLE 170,437 12,233 5.78 14.27 2.55 SEWARD 45,087 12,349 3.28 16.51 2.77 FRONT ST. 36,919 12,185 4.78 13.61 2.58 WARREN 23,998 11 ,638 7.25 13.65 2.06 5,797 12,122 7.20 13.14 2.71 11,727 12,925 3.93 12.75 1.63 _ WMBG SAXTON_ _ -- _j a : SULFUR This type of information is kept for each plant and each coal shipper (sometimes as many as six) to each plant. This data is collected to check the contracted levels of sulfur, and is readily available on a daily and monthly basis. To effect fuel switching at any plant, a utility could maintain a clean coal stockpile, using either specially bought and trucked coal ormaintaining a coal-cleaning plant at one point and shipping around that cleaned coal. The clean piles presently (Aug. 26, 1974) available include: Homer City 34,242 Keystone Connemaugh Seward tons 1.94%S 3.4 day supply 45,673 tons 1.39% 3.0 50,078 tons .92% (gone) - day supply 3.3 day supply -141- Once a fuel switch decision is made the clean coal would begin to be dumped into the bunkers. The amount of coal already in storage in the plant's bunker would have to be burned first, with some blending being inevitable. The total storage of the bunkers, and thus the maximum time for a fuel switch, The bunkers is 8 to 9 hours might at all the plants be as little as half except full, with 1 day at Seward. 1/2 to 3/4 as the general operating range. The cleanest coal, about .8% sulfur, is termed metallurgical coal because it is necessary for steel-making processes. Although this metal- lurgical coal is an extremely valuable, strategic and costly resource, some is currently bought by utilities to blend in with coals which the automatic cutter or grab samples determine are above standard (i.e. will yield more than 4 lbs. S02 per million Btu heat input or about 2.4% sulfur on 12,000 Btu coal.) The costs of coal are elusive numbers due to the blending of different sources and the long-term and utility-owned supplies. Crude est- imates yield costs in the range of 3 to 6% sulfur $15 to $20 per ton 2 to 3 18 to 25 1 to 2 25 to 30 30 to 35 45 to 50 .7 to 1 (western) Solvent refined coal (future) with transportation costs of about $2.50 (for local) to $10 (for western) per ton included. -142- Two people can implement the dynamics of the fuel switch, and can generally be drawn from the on-site operating personnel with an outside possibility of overtime charges. There are two means by which sulfur is held in coal: pyritic and organic. The pyritic sulfur is in a form of rock which is freeable through existing "coal cleaning" processes. the raw coal can be crushed Since the pyrite is heavier than coal, and separated in a bath of material with specific gravity between that of coal and pyrite. The cleaning cost can be as little as $2.40 per ton (10¢/million Btu) for 1.4% sulfur coal. coal has no pyritic form. sulfur and contains all of its .8% sulfur Western in organic This .8% is about standard for the organic sulfur content of coal, and this can be removed only through solvent refining (at about $45 per ton delivered price some time in the future, when the existing technology is applied). All forms of coal cleaning result in a loss of a certain percent of the Btu content of the coal (generally between 4% and 12%). Power Plant Models To present a general overview of the types and magnitudes of the data that is available, information of the Conemaugh station will be presented. Unit 1 9698 Btu/kwh Unit 2 9864 " 900MW 900MW Coal consumption 590 metric tons per hour Cooling towers 2 natural draft, 113 meters tall The specific loadingcurve foreither Unit 1 or 2 can be modeled as: -143TABLE A.3.4 Gross Block MW A cost Bus Bar Basis $/net MWh A heat rate Btu/net kwh Cost Factor 400 7325 600 7500 + 5.35 860 8023 0.713 5.72 1000 8472 + 6.04 4,200 x 1016 2.282 610 x 106 0.713 Start Cost Spin Cost 5.22 where the cost factor = (fuel cost + incremental maintenance) times penalty factor = (.575 + .062)(1.120) = 0.713 and on start cost = (2.220 + .062)(1.000) = 2.282. This data is also available in tab- ulated form: TABLE A.3.5 EXCERPTS FROM CONEMAUGH GENERATION STATION BASIC HEAT INPUT DATA Gross MW Boiler Input 10 Btu/hr 610 0 Gross tr 40 Boiler Input 106 Btu/hr 896 Gross MW 80 Boiler Input 106 Btu/hr 1182 Gross MW 120 Boiler Input 106 Btu/hr 1463 1 617 41 903 81 1189 121 1475 2 3 624 631 42 43 910 917 82 83 1196 1203 122 123 1482 1489 4 639 44 925 84 1211 124 1497 35 36 37 860 867 875 75 76 77 1146 1153 1161 115 116 117 1432 1439 1447 155 156 157 1718 1725 1733 38 882 78 1168 118 1454 158 1740 39 889 79 1175 119 1461 159 1747 The startup-shutdown rate is 6MW/minute, or 5MW/minute without changing the normal ramp control procedure. The control procedures are the same as those described for Keystone in the Anerican Power Conference Proceedings of 1964. 4 -141- Abatement Equipment The cooling towers on, for instance, the Connemaughplant handle about 21.2 x 105 liters of water per minute. They cool the water from about 480C to 320C and consumebetween 34,000 and 49,000 liters per minute (evaporation loss). The particulate precipitators normally have a net efficiency of between 98.2% and 99.9%. This precipitator efficiency, however, is closely related to the sulfur content of the emissions. In particular, the precipitators work better with more sulfur present. If the sulfur content is significantly lower, either from the use of clean fuel or a scrubber system (if it is used before the precipitators), the efficiency could drop to 83%! There is test data available from which the curve of "sulfur percent in fuel" versus "precipitator efficiency" could be drawn. Preliminarily it would seem to look like this: FITET. SULFUR CONTENT --- `---`- % - 6 5 4 standard 3 deviation 2 1 ..... 90 92 , 94 96 , 98 _ . , PRECIPITATOR 100 EFFICIENCY FIGURE A.3.2 The curve of ash versus dust loading for the precipitators on this system is Ash (7%) - 3.4(±1.5) = 2.72 loading (GR/SCF). -141There are several problems with scrubber systems, not the least of which is the unavailability of good data. Reliability is a key factor with good performance in the 70% to 80% availability range and bad from 30% to 40%. Sulfur removal efficiencies vary around 80%, being generally in the 60% to 90% range. The temperature of the emissions can drop from about 3000 F to about 120cF to 1600 F with a scrubber. add to groundlevel concentrations per kw, 2 to 4 mills/kwh. at times. Costs This can significantly are about $50 to $60 The scrubber system for the 650MW Homer City Unit 3, when it is chosen by Penelec this summer, will be the scrubber system used in the simulation comparative evaluations. Power Plant Emissions There is a procedure by which the temperature of the stack gas can be changed appreciably. By the use of baffles, portions of the exhaust (15% or more) can be made to bypass the air preheaters. This bypassed exhaust, then at about 7000 F, will mix with the exhaust coming out of the air preheater (at about 3000 F). The loss in plant efficiency of this process is about 1% per 400 F increase on exiting gas temperature. To operate and to keep in reliable operating condition, such facilities would require about $10,000 per year in labor, equipment and parts. , The efficiency of the precipitators with respect to exiting gas temperature is nearly the same at 300°F and 5500 F. However, in between those temperatures there is a significant drop in efficiency. There might be an increase in the maintenance cost on precipitators if these control actions are taken frequently. The process of temperature modification requires the mobilization of 3 men, and the maximum effect could be reached at about one hour from the initiation of the order. Keystone is a "go-no go" operation with Tmax not much higher than 50°F Homer City has variable controls with a Tmax from 5500 F to possibly 600°F. After 1976 Tmax will be about 4000 F due to the addition of other equipment. Conemaugh is like Homer City except that there are additional problems when the coal is wet in which case the Tmax cannot go much higher than 3500 F. Seward has only the typical 15% bypass capability with ATmax = 500 F. Some of the other emission parameters can be calculated by methods presented in the LAPPES study, for example, The stack gas exit velocity in ft per sec is calculated hourly from the following equation: Tc V = 3600 A s H20(359) + C02 (359) + (44) (8T) 2 (359) (28) + S02(359) + Ae(359) (29) (64) where ts,+ 460 ta + 460 (A.3.1) T c = hourly coal consumption in lbs per hr per unit. A s = stack area = 581.42 sq ft for Keystone. t s = hourly gas temperature ta = hourly ambient leaving temperature in stack in F. F. 460 = conversion to Rankine temperature scale. 3600 = sec per hr. 1120, C 2 , N 2 and S0 2 = series average in lbs per lb of coal as products of combustion. -141Ae = series average excess air in lbs per lb of coal required for combustion. Denominators in parentheses are molecular weights of respective gaseous constituents in whole grams per mole. 359 = conversion factor to British units calculated as follows: 22.414 liters/mole 28.317 liters ftJI x 453.9 grams/lb = 359 grams ft3 lb mole SO2 emission from each unit in tons per hr is calculated hourly be means of this formula: (A.3.2) S0 2 = Tc x % S x 2 2000 where Tc= hourly coal consumption in lbs per hr per unit. % S = series average percent sulfur in fuel. 2 = parts sulfur per parts oxygen in S02. 2000 = lbs per ton. The parameter, stack heat emission in Btu per sec, is computed from the following equation: (A.3.3) Qh = Tc x % DG x HV x (ts - ta) 356JTF (tg - ta) where Tc = hourly coal consumption in lbs per hr per unit. % DG = hourly percent dry gas loss. IIV - series average heat value of fuel ts = hourly gas temperature leaving n Btu per lb. stack in F. tg = hourly gas temperature leaving air heaters in ta = hourly ambient temperature in °F. F. -141- Dispatch and Unit Commitment Schedulers These schedulers are at the PJM interconnection headquarters. The system incremental costs are predicted 6 hours in advance and many of the scheduling decisions are made manually from lookup tables. For example, as the load demands come in there is a daily routine for those plants whichshould come on or go off. These are generally the next cheapest facilities, as shown on a lookup table (Table A.3.6). The economic dispatcher works within the plan given it by the unit commitment scheduler. The transmission losses are accounted for with pre- determined "penalty factors" which are a measure of the distance to the load centers at any given time of day. An automated unit commitment scheme which is being set up is shown in the block diagram, figure A.3.3. For some simulations the most effective form of the "thermal files" is the "cost duration data" which is available monthly (Table A.3.7). Maintenance Scheduling Maintenance scheduling information on the four plants and the rest of the Penelec system is collected and tentatively scheduled by Penelec persons. 1. Their criteria are: equipment availability forces it) None (or very rarelywhen of the PJM plants are scheduled out from June 1 to September 15. 2. Because Penelec is winter peaking (vs. PJH1which has a summer peak) and because parts movement and support services are impossible over holidays, maintenance is avoided as much as possible during the September 15 to January 1 period. -149- 3. They schedule boiler maintenance every twelve months,-4 to+O months from the plant supervisor's point of view and-1 to+6 months from the system supervisor's point of view. Long ex- tensions are sometimes justified to skip the summer period (Shawville is scheduled for 15 months of operation,through 1975,for this purpose). 4. Turbine inspection is every 5 years +0, -1 year. Extensions are possible if equipment is unavailable (6 years on Shawville now). 5. Due to crew availability constraints, Penelec units should have minimum overlapping (although they have had as many as 3 out at one time). 6. Duration is (3,4,4,4) weeks and (6,8,8,8) weeks on (Seward, Keystone, Conemaugh, Homer City) for Boiler and Turbine sessions respectively. The maintenance schedule now in force is given in Table A.3.8. - vu- ! -- !H -I I 1 .-4- I , ! -i Z I I V. O-. L i1 rt F- LL L.L I I iA 0 - Cr UC) cLL. --A c' LJ v, n vo L . 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O I 1 ', i ,4Mt a i : r-- )s I.,v ~"v ) ._ -155- A.4 State Estimation LAPPES Test The LAPPES data presented in this section represents the input data to be used for a test of the state estimation, static advection-diffusion model. It was decided to use LAPPES data for the following reasons: 1) it is publically available, validated data; 2) LAPPES included pilot balloon ascents which can be used to determine upper level wind characteristics for the grid of states (concentrations); 3) the LAPPES data could be sorted to find a day with good data capture and minimal terrain effects; 4) the model test could be prepared without waiting for an ERT data base to be established; 5) the LAPPES sensors are more dense with respect to a single plant than the Penelec system and can therefore provide more data in a short time period. The LAPPES day chosen for the initial tests is May 1, 1970. (LAPPES Vol. 3). A Homer City study day was chosen to partly avoid the more complex terrain at Connemaugh and Seward, and partly because Penelec's interest in SCS is greatest at Homer City where SCS is considered to be a control measure which may help Homer City avoid violating standards between July, 1975 and the installation of flue gas cleaning equipment in 1976. May 1, 1970 had good ground level coverage by the bubblers and the Jimmy Stewart Airport station saw the plume during a wind shift. The prevailing wind kept this plume in a sector between 100 and 40 ° and avoided the complications of plume travel over Chestnut Ridge or subsidence of winds as they come off the ridge. tao- GRI;D -Y,, 25 I I ''.:, . 1 ! o°'; ,itGRIDLAYOUT MAY1, 1970 I OMERCI' ?Y TNT!S 4 0o "-1. ----i -TV;- I 2;4 23 6391 . ! . 22 547-592 21 502-546 20 501 19 57 .. l i 18 l .I , 7 + 17 I + 16 I + 15 i i, .; + 14II i i . .. I . . . : .. . . . + 1312 11 E A. 4.1 . - -.-· - -- 1· + 10 --...- I · rir I- -- 9 grid + 8 .... gria grid sequence 7 cation onitor 6 rT ---... 5 4 3 2 1 HOMER CITY STACKS ____ __ -157.. I . _____··_·_·1_1__ .... ___ _I_ ·_II FIGUREA,4,2 Row Y=8 , 95-96 , 90-91 1 87-88 I z Two LAYERS ABOVE TO MIXIN6 . ,'99-100 ' 103'104 I i HEIGHT -. .. . . . .. I = 250M ----- '------ ---'- 200M ' CELL CELL CELL CELL 86 89 94 98 150M. 100l -'_ - ~ I _ __ I C 50M STACK BASE ... ...- -. Ai ~ .. / I I mm i CELL 93 97 I_ 102 I - __ J l I l FOR RAISING HIGHEST ELEVATION s/ '1 / i'1 - -- . R OR LOWERING CELL , tii, _·_··_·_·___1__1 __101i. w~ __ 92 -50M - CELL CELL ELEVATION CRITERION CELL CEL _ SBE - I I [ CELL 1 r .·- 'iii - BASE TO NEXT LAYER: IN CELL ENTERS NEXT LAYER FIGURE A4.2 ......- TABLE A.4. 1 LAYER NAME BELOW SBE SBE LAYER THICKNESS LAYER AITITUDE 50. 1000-1200 FT 50M 1200-1500 FT 2 15OM 1500-2000 FT 3 250M 2000-2800 FT 4 L - 500M 2800- FT L ',: ff-| z· -158- The first problem in establishing a test of the state estimation techniques is the assignment of states, i.e. the creation of a grid system in the region of interest near Homer City. The grid assignment reflects a standard approach to considering topography and mixing layer height, both The horizontal grid of which appear as boundary conditions in the model. spacing of 1 Km was chosen as a tradeoff between increasing complexity and storage costs during computer operation, and decreasing detail of representation. There are 191 ground level cells and 714 cells alltogether, covering the 25 Km radials sector between 100 and 30° as shown in figure A.4.1. The vertical number of cells vary as shown in figure A.4.2 and table A.4.1. Bubbler locations are shown in the grid and the raw bubbler average data is shown in Table A.4.2. Since state estimation assumes simultaneous observations occur the raw data must be "cleaned up" as in table A.4.3 A step function average was assumed during the observation period of the raw data. Wind and concentration data from Jimmy Stewart Airport are shown in table A.4.4. The same step function assumption is made for the concentration averages to transform them to the .5 hr averaging period of the bubblers, as is shown in the last column of table A.4.3. Wind data at Jimmy Stewart Airport is a true hourly average observation taken from strip chart recorders. The same step function assumption is applied to the data at the station to provide .5 hr averages. Pilot ballon ascents were made on the half hour at the Homer City plant as shown in table table A.4.5. Table A.4.6 shows radiosonde data which was used to -159uiU-I )E V) * -)L(N -Ln ---- -I 2 Ln Lb U Lb Lb I cC. )t Lb ko ) jo I-D '.0 1 '.10 CD O 0O L - C) 0 - --- r I U. - 0~00,--·-- LO Li!-. . : 0 ('_ 0C 00 C r--- M) C CD ' LA Ln q - CJ C'D (.0 a, C" C- I E 0.00[0----- *"O C O, CO I ' CD - LOnc mim tLn t'I'n C) I r I I n mi . " I t C C C - m CD ei ¢L C\J, Ln Cn C.: [ 0 ., C'I - a) LU 1- L 00 "d S50 -j -o 11, r·r co Co EF a ( C) w f-. a: 5:. ' CO C r-- r- C r tJ fC' .L tC . v)o (, c'i cn U) C, In C) .r c c0O I I C Cm I t- - C O O0 Ln ('.1 Lr CX O C- C). m: Iq .-- 4) 00000 0000 LnA I C, 0 ci , I c 0 C I. t 1, I"' :L. CL X' o- Co' o0- W) (0 rO o' Q1)QrCmCr O O C-- 0 i I i I - 0 LU W ·'() C' -j CD =: =L , = #r3 :eO -o -- 3M L! CD I I -O O Cv) ,m-0 0CSJ I-00000 QO 0)' Ln I) 0 " 'C00 I I LO C I co rio I .1L .1 ri O I 0D LO Ico._I u-j I t 0 C Co JZ (L CD a:>hooIO0 CF 0)D 0) r- v}I cOD c co I'. U) I co0 cooooo "' " L "', c qD: CM O vr 1 F M( - c ` L C I rf·I V:: I ('io1cni11W F- O O -- - n ,- C) VC O O0 000000000 ( ) Cv) OI 0CI I "L 0 III _cora~o C )OaM g p) *I CJ 1_ 1e1o o MC) C- 0(-t0( 0 r0Z;0 Ch C)comm rcorsrzrvrs C> M CDC o C) 3co oc J LA I *I co Q c Cl C) C) CD CD 0 ) W V) 'CI ZL Cy I ccO bcO C) o O O ChCUA)) LA L C 1)litnclU)C LnI. U) I I I 0 0 I 0 ) mO CI I I 0 0 0 O aC) I I 0 0 O C O o O0-- O ,-- O 0 00 C) 0 O O- - - r- -r CD C)- r- -1601 Mey 1970 Ly/ min Time, Dir, Speed, Temp, RH, P, S02, ppm cm Avg Pea % °C EST deg mps 0100 0200 0300 0400 0500 0600 156 149 144 142 142 142 4.4 4.5 5.6 5.1 4.7 4.2 21.1 20.0 19.4 18.8 18.3 17.7 61 61 63 63 67 68 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0700 0800 0900 1000 1100 1200 14T 160 184 209 203 204 4.3 4.2 5.0 6.1 6.7 6.5 18.8 21.1 22.7 24.4 24.9 26.1 67 58 0.08 53 9.03 50 47 48 0 1 1 5 0 4 1 1 2 11 0 8 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 228 214 213 222 206 209 6.7 6.6 5.9 7.0 5.9 5.8 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.8 27.7 26.6 46 46 46 45 45 47 - 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 187 214 192 155 150 175 4.7 3.6 2.1 25.5 22.2 21.1 2.6 3.0 1.3 21.1 20.5 20.0 50 59 63 55 59 64 Day 186 4.2 TABLE 0.20 0.45 0.54 0.74 0.67 1.03 --- 0.85 0.85 - 0.75 -- 0.56 0.48 0 1 0.18 2 1 2 2 1 2 3 2 4 3 1 2 0.09 11 443 0.11 JIMMY A.4.4 - STEWART AIRPORT DATA TABLE AA..5 - PILOT BALLOON DATA Ascn H-3 1 May 70 0700 EST Double Ascn H-4 '1 My 70 0730 EST _,dee _Dide S,mps 183.1 193.2 197.3 198.5 L9n._.rg_D,de9 S,mps 6.2 225.0 199.4 203.2 6.5 195.5 5.6 20'0.3 189.2 4.? 203.4 7.4 8.1 8.7 8.9 199.2 201.3 203.2 207.3 211.3 214.5 213.5 192.3 196.5 10.4 202.0 10.6 204.2 9.9 10.5 204.3 10.9 205.1 11.5 198.8 198.4 201.3 207.2 210.8 10.0 12.1 13.4 13.5 200).2 11.2 204.3 12.0 210.9 13.5 214.1 216.0 215.1 223.1 241.2 14.5 '14.7 15.8 17.0 18.0 18.7 218.5 11.4 198.2 14.5 173.3 24.6 211.3 17.0 233.3 16.6 219.8 14.1 214.9 21 .2 223.1 226.2 229.3 17.1 233.4 17.3 235.6 19.0 19.5 15.6 16.2 238.4 19.4 242.2 18.7 246.9 17.5 238.7 16.0 241.3 15.2 245.6 15.6 249.3 15.3 252.2 14.4 239.3 243.2 252.5 250.6 16.7 20.3 18.1 250.1 16.5 253.4 15.6 258.4 14.7 258.5 14.3 256.7 13.8 ;' 3.1 24's. 2 13.3 14.4 215.9 13.5 244.7 12.3 209.8 10.7 251.1 13.9 248.2 14.5 24G.8 15.0 247.6 15.0 251.3 13.8 248.7 245.7 14.? 15.0 3.5 7.2 8.3 8.7 8.1 7.9 235.0 141.7 172.1 202.9 208.5 222.0 10.2 1.7 12.1 17.4 18.0 16.9 235.0 135.6 159.6 193.9 199.1 203.9 8.2 9.3 10.8 12.0 13.0 229.1 220.1 217.6 217.2 219.4 18.4 24.5 29.7 31.6 22.1 207.5 208.8 211.3 217.7 217.3 219.0 222.4 223.0 14.2 16.2 13.7 14.9 220.4 219.7 216.9 219.4 223.5 17.9 16.1 13.9 12.9 11.9 223.3 230.6 224.4 220.7 9.7 6.3 6.8 11.1 15.9 221.7 219.9 14.2 8co 850 218.6 16.5 15.4 11.2 8.2 900 100U 231.7 6.4 6.7 1100 226.5 231.2 232.7 233.1 265.0 131.5 143.2 216.1 186.1 202.5 310.0 11.0 D,deq S,mps P,deg S,rnps D,deg S,mps 0.3 2.4 202.0 1911.9 D,deg S,mps D,deg S,mps 0.0 6.0 1IU0.? 8.5 Ascn H-10 1 May 70 1030 EST Single Ascn H-7 1 May 70 0900 EST Single 128.9 141.3 7.2 8.7 Atcn H-9 1 May 70 1000 EST Single Ascn H-G 1 MFay70 0830 EST Double 3.0 4.0 0.0 161.0 Ascn H-5 1 May 70 0800 EST Combined 1.7 4.7 6.3 7.4 7.6 7.2 1.3 0.3 2.3 3.7 6.6 235.0 231.1 226.3 223.5 222.2 6.1 219.2 6.2 7.1 Ascn H-8 1 May 70 0930 EST Double 214. 1 213.5 215.2 216.4 217.3 12.4 7.0 230.2 223.2 8.7 216.2 10.9 216.2 13.2 221.0 224.8 228.5 12.9 15.3 16.1 17.1 18.9 218.6 222.3 224.0 228.6 234.3 235.1 240.1 16.8 15.6 239.4 13.8 240.0 14.3 241.0 14.2 243.0 13.6 243.2 12.4 225.1 15.9 225.9 227.7 15.9 231.0 15.3 231.5 16.4 233.4 16.2 234.1 242.0 12.1 240.4 11.8 239.5 11.1 237.8 11.9 239.0 12.0 237.3 13.9 11.5 12.2 12.8 13.3 226.9 225.0 228.7 234.5 16.2 16.2 20.3 15.3 13.6 243.2 11.5 245.7 11.8 246.6 11.9 239.6 10.6 249.0 4.9 238.1 241.3 244.5 247.5 16.1 19.0 18.3 16.8 209.9 215.3 218.8 8.7 10.6 12.5 246.8 13.0 12.4 14.1 14.3 14.1 12.0 242.1 240.0 238.1 236.6 15.5 236.3 230.4 226.7 227.1 214.4 217.6 219.7 218.1 225.2 230.9 222.1 227.0 228.0 7.1 1.0 7.5 11.4 12.9 13.3 Sfc £0 103 150 200 250 14.0 15.6 16.1 16.0 14.7 300 350 400 450 500 11.7 8.9 9.6 10.5 11.8 550 600 650 700 750) 10.5 10.0 12.6 18.7 24.6 283.1 29.8 1200 1250 13CJ 1I.3, TABLE A.4.6 RADIOSONDE DATA Ascn 243 Pm_ 1000 970 953 950 905 900 884 850 819 800 777 750 733 700 Z, m 165 428 580 608 1026 1073 1228 1564 1881 2079 2325 2620 2810 3189 1 May 1970 Ascn 244 0503 EST ° T,°C Td, C 19.1 21.5 21.3 18.4 18.6 19.5 17.3 15.2 13.5 11.5 9.6 8.4 5.3 13.1 10.4 9.9 6.6 7.1 9.7 7.9 6.2 7.1 7.2 1.0 - 3.7 - 3.0 H, m D,deg S,mps Sfc 150 300 240 185 204 4.0 9.0 11.3 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 195 226 236 230 207 208 7.2 15.4 16.2 10.0 12.3 14.6 TABLE E ST S B E P,mb Z, m 1000 970 950 922 900 855 850 819 800 781 765 750 700 154 428 612 874 1084 1526 1576 1891 2088 2290 2462 2627 3193 T,°C 1216 EST Td,°C H, m 0,deg S,mps 250 15.7 Sfc 12.8 150 9.1 300 8.3 6.6 17. 500 16.6 6.4 1000 13.1 6.2 1500 12.2 6.9 2000 11.3 7.2 2500 3.4 9.4 8.1 2.1 4.5 - 1.0 28.0 26.0 23.5 21.4 250 234 255 231 227 234 228 7.6 6.9 8.8 6.7 11.2 10.1 12.4 13.7 A.4 .7 2 D,deg, S,mps 1 May 1970 D,deg, S,mps 3 D,deg, S,mps 4 L D,deg,S,mps m 0700-30 172 3.5 196 7.2 203 12.0 450 0730-00 135 1.4 193 6.2 201 11.5 500 0800-30 238 6.7 201 8.6 205 10.7 218 11.4 550 0830-00 207 4.2 204 7.4 213 10.3 219 14.1 600 0900-30 180 1.3 202 5.5 221 9.2 222 13.2 650 0930-00 231 6.3 222 8.2 215 10.7 219 14.9 700 1000-30 183 8.0 211 17.4 221 25.3 220 14.5 750 1030-00 177 5.2 199 12.5 212 15.3 223 11.1 800 1100-30 - - 850 1130-00 - - 900 242 9.0 950 - - 1200-30 1230-00 250 7.6 250 6.9 245 7.6 Below SBE layer assumed to be identical to SBE layer. 1000 -162- establish the height of the mixing layer at 500 EST (400 m) (L) and 1230 EST (1100 m, calculated graphically from the 0500 sounding using the 1230 surface temperature). time between these data points. It is assumed that L grows linearly with The value of L under this assumption is With a knowledge then used to determine the grid size in the top layer. of pilot balloon behavior and all the grid sizes the wind behavior in each grid layer can be approximated by averaging the wind data through the depth of the layer and assuming it is representative of the next .5hr. These calculated mixing heights and grid layer wind speeds are shown in o Table A.4.7. + For a wind of V mps from 0 . and a cartesian grid with x at 4 , the components are given by: u = V x = - V cos x v = V = V sin (O- 4) (O - (A.4.1) ) Table A.4.8 presents the unit data at Homer City. The step function assumption also applies to this date yielding the.5hr average concentration and plume rise shown in Table A.4.9 (Briggs, 1965). Based on these plume rise figures, it is assumed that the plume is trapped in the upper grid cell layer when it reaches its equilibrium position. TABLE Homer City Emission Data Homer City Tirte, EST Load, T, DT, mw CC 0° Vel, SO2, Cal/sec mps g/sec x 106 0400 0500n 06F00 0700 ono0 0900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 15n Unit 2 Time, Load, T, EST mw °C DT, °C Vel, S02, Cal/sec rps /tsec x 106 04n0 OE 00 0600 0700 0800 0900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 17.9 2099 468 10 l 1; 17.1 2090 17.9 465 1,19 1:'; i6.9 2n77 17.6 470 150 127 17.1 2099 17.8 476 150 12, 17.4 2126 18.0 483 151 1 17.6 2157 18.3 484 151 127 17.7 2162 18.3 484 151 12f, 17.7 2161 18.2 484 151 l. 17.7 2161 18.2 470 Homer City -;,: I May 1970 1 U 12;i 17.1 1500 1600 1700 314 315 385 435 438 460 454 442 443 132 110 11.7 132 111 11.7 141 119 14.6 146 123 16.7 146 123 16.8 148 124 17.7 148 124 17.5 146 121 17.0 147 122 17.1 1600 1700 TABLE A.4.9 - Homer City Adjusted Emission Data SO2 Unit 1 SO 2 1 May 1970 Unit 2 0800-30 2126 896 2081 847 0830-00 2126 854 2081 806 0900-30 2157 1057 2186 1040 0930-00 2157 917 2186 902 1000-30 2162 1503 2157 1463 1030-00 2162 1026 2157 999 1100-30 2161 967 2100 898 1130-00 2161 967 2100 898 1200-30 2161 1593 2105 1498 1230-00 2161 1593 2105 1498 1192 1497 1830 2067 2081 2186 2157 2100 2105 10.9 11.0 14.5 17.0 17.0 18.0 17.8 16.9 17.1