Centre for the Economics of Education and Tra in in g
Fac u l t y o f E d u c a t i o n, Mon a sh Un iversit y
AUSTRALIAN TRANSPORT AND LOGISTICS INDUSTRY
2013–17
JUNE 2013
CONTENTS
Executive summary Tables and figures
1
79
References83
1
3
Introduction11
Forecasts of employment 2013–17
1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
3.1 Forecasts of employment – all sectors
3.1.1 Forecasts of employment by industry
3.1.2 Forecasts of employment by occupation
3.1.3 Forecasts of employment by qualification
3.2 Forecasts of employment
– Transport and Logistics industries
3.2.1 Forecasts of employment
– Logistics and Warehousing
3.2.2 Forecasts of employment – Road Transport
3.2.3 Forecasts of employment – Aviation sector
3.2.4 Forecasts of employment – Rail sector
3.2.5 Forecasts of employment
– Maritime and Ports sector
Macroeconomic context
Measures of education and training
Future supply of vocational qualifications
The workforce covered by TLISC
15
17
18
19
2
Employment trends 2002–12
21
2.1 Employment trends – all sectors
25
2.1.1 Employment trends by industry
25
2.1.2 Employment trends by occupation
27
2.1.3 Employment trends by qualification
27
2.2 Employment trends
– Transport and Logistics industries
29
2.2.1 Employment trends
– Logistics and Warehousing sector
31
2.2.2 Employment trends – Road Transport sector
35
2.2.3 Employment trends – Aviation sector
39
2.2.4 Employment trends – Rail sector
43
2.2.5 Employment trends – Maritime and Ports sector 46
49
52
54
54
54
55
58
58
59
59
59
4
Job openings for new entrants, 2013–17
4.1 Job openings for new entrants – all sectors
4.2 Job openings for new entrants
– Transport and Logistics industries
4.2.1 Job openings for new entrants
– Logistics and Warehousing sector
4.2.2 Job openings for new entrants
– Road Transport sector
4.2.3 Job openings for new entrants
– Aviation sector
4.2.4 Job openings for new entrants
– Rail sector
4.2.5 Job openings for new entrants
– Maritime and Ports sector
61
63
65
65
65
65
65
65
Report prepared for TLISC by Michael Long & Chandra Shah, CEET
TLISC
CEET
The Transport and Logistics Industry Skills Council Ltd
(TLISC) is an independent, government funded, not-forprofit organisation that works on behalf of the Transport
and Logistics Industry to promote investment in skills and
workforce development.
CEET is the only centre for the economics of education and
training in Australia. CEET focuses on the contribution of
education and training to economic and social development,
undertaking research training, consultancies and dissemination
of the economics and finance of education and training. It
has extensive experience and expertise in: the finance and
economics of education and training; analysis of large data
sets; policy development; supply and demand analysis; and
working with government authorities in Australia and overseas.
TLISC is chartered with driving the skills and workforce
development agenda across the entire Transport and Logistics
industry which encompasses activities in road transport,
warehousing, rail, aviation, maritime, logistics and ports.
iii
5
6
Training needs, 2013–17
5.1
5.2
69
Training needs – all sectors
Training needs – Transport and Logistics industries
5.2.1 Training needs – Logistics and Warehousing
5.2.2 Training needs – Road Transport
5.2.3 Training needs – Aviation
5.2.4 Training needs – Rail
5.2.5 Training needs – Maritime and Ports
Concluding remarks
77
71
73
73
75
75
75
75
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
Executive
summary
There are promising signs for the
Transport and Logistics industry, and
despite an economy in transition, the
future looks bright.
During the next five years the industry
is expected to grow by 73,000 to
870,000, and one of the distinctive
features of the past decade has been
the fact that Transport and Logistics
workforce growth has exceeded
growth for the rest of the economy.
Nevertheless, there are challenges ahead.
A bigger economy and trade with Asia means that
pressures on the industry are only expected to increase
and in order to meet these demands quality training and
up-skilling of the workforce is vital.
The total training needs for the Transport and Logistics
Industry over the next five years are for 151,000 persons
with qualifications. Training needs vary by sector but
also by occupation within each sector. Less than half of
all needs will be met by new entrants with qualifications
and the rest will be met by continuing workers upskilling.
This is a huge task, yet there is the added complication
of an ageing Australian workforce.
Currently 12 per cent of the Transport and Logistics
workforce is 60 years or older looking to retire in the
next five years. A further 34 per cent is aged
45–59 years.
Robert Adams
Chief Executive Officer
In 2002 around one third of the Transport and Logistics
workforce held educational qualifications, but by
2012 this had increased to 45 per cent. And despite
this surge, the industry still lags behind the Australian
workforce as a whole in which 63 per cent hold formal
qualifications.
The industry’s commitment to training and upskilling
the Transport and Logistics workforce is evident in
the growing number of workers who have educational
qualifications. Of course, this also translates to greater
productivity across the sectors, higher pay for workers
and an overall better standard of living.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Key findings
®®
®®
®®
In the five years to 2017, 151,000 job openings
for new entrants are forecast in the Transport and
Logistics industries. This averages to about 30,000
openings per year. Not surprisingly the highest
numbers of openings are expected in the two largest
sectors. Almost 90 per cent of all openings are
forecast in the Logistics and Road Transport sectors.
Employment in the Transport and Logistics industries
is forecast to increase by 73,000 persons over the
next five years to 870,000 in 2017. The average
annual rate of growth in these industries is forecast
to be higher than in the rest of the economy, which is
consistent with the trends over the past decade.
The rate of growth is forecast to vary by sector.
For instance, growth in Logistics and Rail Transport is
forecast to be above the industries’ average of 1.8 per
cent per year. Employment in the two largest sectors
– logistics and road transport – is forecast to increase
by 67,000 persons. This is more than 90 per cent of
the total growth in Transport and Logistics industries.
®®
®®
®®
®®
The Transport and Logistics industries’ workforce
has aged over the past decade, for instance, the
proportion of the workforce aged 55 years or older
increased from 13 per cent in 2002 to 22 per cent in
2012. About 12 per cent of the workforce is 60 years
or older and will be approaching retirement during the
next five years.
The overwhelming majority of people working in the
Transport and Logistics industries are male—86 per
cent in 2012. This proportion has only slightly reduced
since 2002. Slightly more than half of the rest of the
Australian workforce is male—52 per cent in 2012
compared to 53 per cent in 2002.
A minimum of about 2.4 million people will need to
be trained across all Australian Industries from 2013–
17 to meet industry demand for skilled workers.
This amounts to at least 482,000 completed
qualifications per year.
The total training needs for the Transport and
Logistics Industry over the next five years are for
151,000 persons with qualifications. Training needs
vary by sector but also by occupation within each
sector. Less than half of all needs will be met by new
entrants with qualifications and the rest will be met by
continuing workers up-skilling.
Australian
Australian
transport
transport
andand
logistics
logistics
industry
industry
Forecasts
Forecasts
ofof
labour
labour
and
andskill
skillrequirements
requirements 2013–17
2
Context
The current broader macroeconomic context is relevant
in understanding the demand for labour and skills in the
Transport and Logistics industries. Macro conditions
have a direct or indirect impact on all industry sectors.
The Australian economy, like most other economies
around the world, experienced the fallout from the
global financial crisis. While the impact of the crisis
has been rather severe for many countries, Australia
has escaped relatively unscathed from the experience.
The Government’s stimulus packages together with the
continuing demand for Australian resources from China,
Japan, South Korea and India cushioned the economy
from the worst effects of the crisis. The economy has
continued to be resilient despite the winding down of
the Australian Government’s initial fiscal stimulus. This
was mainly because of continuing global demand for
Australian resources. However, prices for iron ore and
coal, the two commodities that make up a significant
proportion of Australia’s exports, have declined. This
has largely been as a result of a softening of the Chinese
economy and increasing supplies of these commodities
coming on the market. China has also built up large
stockpiles of these commodities.
The resources boom has improved Australia’s terms
of trade. This together with the high interest rates in
Australia relative to those in most other developed
countries has strengthened the value of the Australian
dollar relative to most other major currencies.
While the economies and labour markets of the mining
states of Western Australia, Queensland and the
Northern Territory are expanding rapidly as a result
of the resources boom, the traditional manufacturing
states of New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia
are doing less well, but not as badly as some other
parts of the developed world. This patchwork economic
progress has become a topic of hot debate more
recently because the disparities seem to have increased
to well above historic levels. While the average
unemployment rate in Australia in the first quarter of
2012 was 5.6 per cent, in some parts of the country it
was well above this level.
The high Australian dollar has adversely affected the
trade-exposed non-resource sectors of the Australian
economy (e.g. tourism and manufacturing). Tourism
to Australia is not only sensitive to the value of the
Australian dollar but it is also affected by the health of
economies from which Australia traditionally receives
tourists, for example, Europe, Japan and the U.S.
Increased numbers of tourists from China and India may
offset some of the decline from the traditional sources.
The Australian Government has initiated some major
economic and social reforms, the pricing of carbon and
the construction of the National Broadband Network
being the most significant of these. Pricing carbon is
however unlikely to have much employment effect, at
least in net terms, although additional skill needs may
arise from adaptation and mitigation activities. In the
Transport and Logistics industries, changing driver
behaviour is contributing to mitigation (e.g. improving
vehicle fuel efficiency through CleanRun Ecodrive
program in Western Australia).
Australia’s population is projected to grow to 23.5
million by 2015 and then to 26.8 million by 2025. The
ageing of the population presents a significant long-term
risk for the economy and sustainability of government
finances. The ageing of the population will also affect
future labour supply. Reforms that reduce barriers to
participation can lift growth and reduce future pressures
on labour supply. Improving educational attainment
would be one way to lift aggregate labour force
participation because people holding qualifications are
more likely to participate than those who do not hold
qualifications. Improving the skills base of the workforce
is thus emerging as a critical factor if Australia is to meet
the economic, environmental and social challenges of
the future.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
What part of the workforce
is covered by TLISC?
Workforce profile and trends
in employment, 2002–12
TLISC holds responsibility for the training and workforce
development needs at the sub-professional level in the
following Transport and Logistics sectors:
All sectors
®®
Road Transport, Logistics and Warehousing
®®
Aviation
®®
Rail
®®
Maritime and Ports.
These sectors are defined by a set of occupations,
training for which is predominantly delivered using
one of the three training packages that TLISC
has responsibility for.
Employment in Australia reached 11.4 million persons
in 2012. Since 2002 it has increased by a quarter, or
2.3 per cent per year. While employment in Agriculture,
Forestry and Fishing has continued to decline, in Mining
it has trebled, albeit from a low base. The Transport,
Postal and Warehousing sector, which overlaps with the
TLISC workforce as defined in this report, employed
566,000 persons in 2012.
The qualifications profile of the Australian workforce
has been changing with a trend toward more people
holding qualifications and at higher levels. In 2001,
54.2 per cent of the working population aged 15–64
years held qualifications and 52.6 per cent of these
qualifications were at a diploma or higher level. By
2011, 62.7 per cent held qualifications and 59.6 per
cent of the qualifications were at the Diploma or higher
levels. The number of people with qualifications in the
workforce has been increasing at a much higher rate
than overall employment—3.7 per cent compared to
2.2 per cent per year. These trends indicate substantial
skills deepening in the workforce.
8%
th
ow
r
t g d 2.
en an 200
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t
oy or e
pl nsp sinc
em Tra ics
in gist
Lo
2
Australian
Australian
transport
transport
andand
logistics
logistics
industry
industry
Forecasts
Forecasts
ofof
labour
labour
and
andskill
skillrequirements
requirements 2013–17
4
Table E1 Transport and Logistics industries workforce, 2002
Sector
Employment
(‘000s)
% male
% aged 45
years or older
% working 35 hours
or more per week
% with
qualifications
TLISC sectors
623
87
37
74
34
Logistics
251
80
30
71
31
Road Transport
291
94
44
76
31
Aviation
44
81
29
71
69
Rail
22
89
42
77
30
Maritime & Ports
15
97
33
75
62
Non-TLISC sectors
8,521
53
34
64
56
All sectors
9,144
56
34
64
54
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) (2012b). Scope: persons aged 15 years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used
with caution.
Table E2 Transport and Logistics industries workforce, 2012
Sector
Employment
(‘000s)
% male
% aged 45
years or older
% working 35 hours
or more per week
% with
qualifications
TLISC sectors
797
86
47
75
45
Logistics
351
81
39
78
45
Road Transport
351
93
56
73
40
Aviation
50
80
35
69
76
Rail
29
88
48
76
50
Maritime & Ports
16
96
42
72
64
Non-TLISC sectors
10,635
52
38
63
64
All sectors
11,432
54
39
63
63
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) (2012b). Scope: persons aged 15 years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used
with caution.
Transport and Logistics industries
Employment in the Transport and Logistics industries
increased at a faster rate than in the rest of the
workforce between 2002 and 2012—2.5 compared
to 2.2 per cent per year. In 2012, employment in
the industries was about 800,000, having increased
by 28 per cent since 2002.
Tables E1 and E2 provides a summary of the Transport
and Logistics industries’ workforce in 2002 and 2012.
Most of the workforce is employed in the Logistics and
Road Transport sectors. The workforce is predominantly
male, especially in the Maritime and Ports sector. The
workforce has a higher percentage of workers aged 45
year or older than the rest of the workforce. There was
a 10 percentage point increase in the number in this
age group over the last decade. In the Road Transport
sector, 56 per cent of all workers were in this age range
in 2012. Partly as a result of a mainly male workforce,
three out of every four workers in the workforce worked
35 hours or more per week.
Only about a third of the workforce held educational
qualifications in 2002. The percentage had increased
to 45 per cent by 2012. A number of occupations in
the Transport and Logistics industries employ large
numbers of workers who do not hold any qualifications
but possess skills and occupational licenses that
allow them to work productively. Examples of such
occupations
are Truck Driver, Delivery Driver, Forklift Driver and
Waterside Worker.
The Aviation and Maritime and Ports
sectors have relatively high proportions of workers
with qualifications, particularly the former in which
76 per cent held qualifications in 2012.
The highest employment growth over the past decade
has been in the Logistics sector (3.5 per cent per year)
and lowest in Aviation (1.5 per cent per year).
The largest three occupations in the Transport and
Logistics industries, each with more than 50,000
workers in 2012, were that of Storeperson and Forklift
Driver in the Logistics sector and Truck Driver in the
Road Transport sector.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
All sectors
Forecasts of
employment, 2013-17
Employment in Australia is forecast to grow by 836,000
persons, or 1.4 per cent per year, from 2012 to 2017. About
30 per cent of this growth is forecast to be in Construction
and Retail Trade. The highest rate of employment growth
is forecast in the Mining sector. Health Care and Social
Assistance is forecast to employ 12 per cent of all workers
in 2017, the highest percentage for any sector. In the
Transport, Postal and Warehousing sector, employment
is forecast to increase by 29,000 persons over this period,
which is an annual rate of growth of one per cent.
The report uses the MONASH model to generate
employment forecasts by industry and occupation.
The model is one the most sophisticated and
respected models of the Australian economy.
Government and other agencies regularly commission
forecasting and policy analysis work using the model.
For example, the work modelling the impact of the
carbon price on the Australian economy on behalf
of the Australian Treasury was undertaken using
MONASH model. The model has been adapted for
use in a large number of developed and developing
economies, including the U.S.
In 2017, 1.1 million more working people are forecast
to hold qualifications than in 2012. This represents an
increase of 15.2 per cent. The number of people without
qualifications is forecast to decline by 6.4 per cent.
Altogether, 68.3 per cent of the working population in
Australia in 2017 will hold qualifications.
The demand for labour in the economy depends on a
number of factors. It depends on the macroeconomic
state of the domestic economy and that of its
major trading partners. Other factors that influence
demand are capital investment and its distribution
across industries, the pace of technical change and
government policies. Moreover there is a complex
interdependency between all these factors. Future
growth in demand will depend on assumptions made
about the state of these factors and their implications
in future periods. All these factors are modelled in a
computational general equilibrium framework in the
MONASH model.
The highest growth in qualifications is forecast at the
Diploma and Certificate IV levels. Numbers of workers with
higher education qualifications are also forecast to grow
strongly. Only a modest increase is forecast for the number
of workers holding Certificate III. Fewer workers are
forecast to hold qualifications at the Advanced Diploma,
Certificate II and Certificate I in 2017 than in 2012.
Transport and Logistics industries
Table E3 shows the forecasts of employment by level of
qualification in the Transport and Logistics industries in
2017. Employment is forecast to increase proportionately
more in these industries than in the rest of the economy,
reaching 870,000 in 2017. The Logistics sector will employ
more workers than any other sector. The proportion of
the industries’ workforce with qualifications is forecast to
increase substantially, but it will still be much lower than
the proportion with qualifications in non-TLISC sectors.
The CEET model factors in skills deepening rates
into MONASH forecasts to produce forecasts
of employment by qualification. The relatively
faster increase in the percentage of workers with
qualifications than the increase in employment in an
occupation is referred to as skill deepening. It can
also refer to the qualifications profile of the occupation
changing toward higher level qualifications.
Table E3 Forecasts of employment in Transport and Logistics industries, 2017 (‘000s)
Sector
Higher
education
VET
No
qualification
Total
% with
qualifications
% change
from 2012
TLISC sectors
109
355
406
870
53.3
9.2
Logistics
51
144
195
391
50.1
11.2
Road Transport
41
157
180
378
52.4
7.8
Aviation
7
33
13
53
76.1
6.2
Rail
6
13
12
31
60.6
9.6
Maritime & Ports
3
8
6
17
64.5
5.6
Non-TLISC sectors
3,545
4,366
3,488
11,398
69.4
7.2
All sectors
3,654
4,721
3,894
12,269
68.3
7.3
Source: MONASH economic forecasts (CoPS June 2012). Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
6
1.1
millio
n mo
re
forec
ast to working p
eople
hold q
2017
a
than
in 201 ualification re
s in
2.
Box E1
MONASH model for forecasting employment by occupation
MONASH is a computational general equilibrium model for
forecasting employment by occupation (Adams
et al. 1994; Dixon and Rimmer 1996; Meagher 1997; Dixon
and Rimmer 2000). It is maintained by the Centre of Policy
Studies (CoPS), Monash University. An intuitive description
of the model is contained in Appendix O in Industry
Commission (1997))
In brief, the MONASH model is a sequence of singleperiod models, linked through time by the behaviour of
capital and labour markets. It has three main elements—a
database, theory and parameters—that are embodied in
the model’s system of equations. These equations describe
how industries and consumers respond to changes in
policy. The core of the database is a large input-output
matrix, which shows how each sector of the economy
is linked to other sectors. These linkages are only for a
particular point in time. Behaviour responses of different
groups to policy changes are based on economic theory.
The model specifies likely responses of producers,
consumers, foreigners and investors to policy changes.
It also includes a government sector, the revenue and
expenditure behaviour of which is modelled separately.
While theory guides the model’s broad assumptions (which
can be altered to accommodate different scenarios),
actual numerical parameters are required to estimate the
size of the responses. In MONASH, these parameters are
derived either from the input-output database or from other
external sources.
MONASH converts the forecast for aggregate output to
forecasts for output by industry. These are then converted
to forecasts of employment by industry, which in turn are
converted to employment by occupation.
MONASH uses a range of historical data
input to estimate the model. These include:
®®
national accounts
®®
input-output tables
®®
state accounts
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Census data on population
®®
foreign trade statistics
®®
capital stock statistics
®®
income and expenditure surveys
®®
other unpublished data from the ABS.
To generate forecasts, MONASH has to have
access to informed opinion on future changes
to variables that are exogenous to the system.
The model is adaptable and can incorporate
data from a range of sources. Currently it
uses the following:
®®
®®
®®
®®
®®
Access Economics’ 5-year macro forecasts
of output by major industry sector
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource
Economics and Sciences’ (ABARES) export
prices and volumes for primary products
Tourism Forecasting Committee’s (TFC)
prospects for tourism
Productivity Commission’s assessment on
changes in protection implied by government
industry policy
CoPS’ assessment of changes in technology
and consumer tastes.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
All industries sectors
Job openings for
new entrants, 2013–17
About 2.2 million job openings for new entrants
are forecast from 2013 to 2017. The job openings
are for workers with and without qualifications.
The number of job openings depends on growth
and replacement needs in the occupation group
but also on the current level of employment in
it. For instance, the highest job openings are for
Professionals which employed 2.7 million workers in
2012, the highest number in all occupation groups.
On the other hand, the high number of job openings
for Sales workers is mainly because of the high net
replacement rate (5 per cent).
New jobs from growth in an occupation account for only a
portion of all jobs that are expected to be available during
the forecast period. Many workers will leave jobs for a variety
of reasons, such as death, ill-health, retirement or transfer to
another occupation. These departures will create additional
opportunities for workers to enter each occupation. In many
occupations, the number of workers retiring will rise in
coming years due to the ageing of Australia’s baby boomers.
These replacement needs, when added to new jobs, create
a more complete picture of job openings. While projections
of job growth and decline provide the best picture of how
occupational employment is expected to change, job
openings provide a better description of the labour market
that new entrants will face.
Transport and Logistics industries
Table E4 provides a summary of the job openings for
new entrants in the transport and logistics industries
from 2013 to 2017. While the employment growth
rate in the industries is higher than in other sectors
of the economy, the net replacement rate is lower
despite the older age profile. More than 150,000
job openings are forecast in the industries during
this period, most of them in the Logistics and Road
Transport sectors. About the same number of job
openings are forecast in these two sectors but for
different reasons. While in the Logistics sector the
growth rate is high and the net replacement rate is
low, in the Road transport sector the opposite
is the case.
The measure of replacement needs adopted in this report
is net replacement, which, when combined with growth
in an occupation, best represents the job openings for
new entrants to the occupation. The average annual net
replacement rate across all occupations for the period
2013–17 was estimated to be 2.1 per cent. By comparison,
the growth in employment is forecast to be 1.4 per cent per
year for the same period. This highlights the importance
of replacement needs relative to employment growth in
estimating new entrants to an occupation. Net replacement
needs are generally higher for low-skill occupations than
high-skill occupations.
Table E4 Employment growth rate, net replacement rate and job openings
in Transport and Logistics industries, Australia, 2013–17
Sector
Employment growth rate (%)
Net replacement rate (%)
Job openings (‘000s)
TLISC sectors
1.8
1.7
151.5
Logistics
2.1
1.5
66.2
Road Transport
1.5
2.0
68.1
Aviation
1.2
1.4
7.8
Rail
1.9
2.1
6.5
Maritime & Ports
1.1
2.0
3.0
Non-TLISC sectors
1.4
2.1
2,002.1
All sectors
1.4
2.1
2,153.6
Source: CEET.
Table E5 Training needs in Transport and Logistics industries, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000s)
Sector
Higher
education
Advanced
diploma/diploma
Certificate III/IV
Certificate I/II
Total
TLISC sectors
38.1
42.9
64.1
6.3
151.4
Logistics
15.8
15.2
21.4
3.4
55.8
Road Transport
17.4
22.4
35.8
2.2
77.7
Aviation
1.8
2.5
4.1
0.4
8.8
Rail
2.5
1.4
2.5
0.2
6.5
Maritime & Ports
0.8
1.4
0.4
0.1
2.6
Non-TLISC sectors
884.0
520.6
760.1
91.6
2256.3
All sectors
922.2
563.5
824.2
97.9
2407.7
Source: CEET.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
8
Training needs, 2013–17
Not only is employment forecast to grow over the next
five years, but the qualifications profile of the workforce
is also expected to change with more workers holding
qualifications and increasingly at higher levels.
Part of the future demand for skilled labour will be met by
skilled workers who are currently working in the industries
and who will continue to do so in the next period. However
not all workers employed in the current period will be
available in the next period because of turnover.
The qualifications profile of an occupation will change with
the entry of new people and the exit of others, some of
whom will hold qualifications and others will not. In some
instances the number of new entrants with qualifications
will be insufficient to achieve the qualifications profile
forecast for the occupation and continuing workers will
need to acquire new qualifications to make up the shortfall.
Some continuing workers who already have a qualification
may up-skill and others who do not have a qualification
may acquire their first qualification.
The report provides baseline information on the minimum
number of qualified workers needed in the transport and
logistics industries from 2013 to 2017 due to:
®®
changes in the qualifications profile
®®
growth in employment
®®
turnover of workers.
These estimates provide indications of the minimum training
needs. Completion of skill sets or licensing requirements
are considered additional training and not included in these
estimates. Also not included are lower level qualifications
completed as a pathway to higher level qualifications in the
same year.
All industries
About 2.4 million people will need to be trained from
2013–17 to meet industry demand for skilled workers.
This amounts to 482,000 completed qualifications per year.
Slightly more than half of this demand for trained workers
will be met by new entrants with qualifications and the rest
by continuing workers up-skilling. While new entrants will
meet significantly more of the demand for workers with
Bachelor and Certificate I-III level qualifications, the demand
for postgraduate, diplomas and Certificate IV qualifications
will largely be met by continuing workers up-skilling.
About 38.3 per cent of all demand is projected for higher
education qualifications and almost all demand for VET
qualifications is at the Diploma or Certificate III/IV level.
Transport and Logistics industries
Table E5 shows the summary of the training needs in
Transport and Logistics industries. The total needs
over the next five years are for 151,000 persons with
qualifications. Training needs vary by sector but also
by occupation within each sector. Less than half of all
needs will be met by new entrants with qualifications
and the rest will be met by continuing workers
up-skilling.
About three-quarters of training needs will be for
persons with VET qualifications, 57 per cent of
which will be at Certificate III/IV level. The demand
for Certificate I/II qualifications will be largely met
by new entrants.
Concluding comments
This report has produced forecasts of labour and
qualification needs in transport and logistics industries
in Australia from 2013 to 2017. It has used the most
robust model for forecasting training and the most
recent data to estimate the model.
Models are only as good as the quality of the data
that are used to estimate them. Even the most reliable
data have limitations because they are often derived
from sample surveys which contain sampling and
measurement errors and also because standard
classifications are used for coding the data.
Economic forecasts are never precise, especially
over the longer term, and always have a certain
degree of uncertainty attached to them. It is inevitable
that developments that are currently unforseen will
eventually render forecasts from any model, not just
the ones included in this report, to be inaccurate. This
report contains short- to medium-term forecasts and
are, therefore, unlikely to have large margins of error.
Notwithstanding the limitations outlined above, the
forecasts of employment, job openings for new entrants
and the training needs in the Transport and Logistics
industries included in this report provide sound baseline
data that are systematic, comprehensive and consistent
for informing policy on workforce development. The
forecasts should however be validated and fine-tuned
with information from other sources and stakeholder
consultation.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
10
The purpose of this report is to provide estimates of the training needs in the
occupations covered by the Transport and Logistics Industries Skills Council
(TLISC) for the period 2013–17.
1
Introduction
The Australian Government’s interest
in developing policies on skills and
workforce development is ongoing
and stems from a desire to sustain
economic growth and to ensure
Australia continues to remain
globally competitive.
Investment in education and training has to be
appropriate and ongoing to equip the workforce with
a capacity to be able to innovate, improve productivity
and adapt to structural changes. A better skilled
population is more likely to have higher labour force
participation. Reforms that improve the quality of
educational and training outcomes will also drive
productivity growth over the medium term (Australian
Government 2010).
The link between education and training and innovation,
participation, productivity and economic growth is in
the first instance indicated by the strong association
between higher levels of educational qualifications and
higher earnings (wages are deemed to reflect the labour
productivity of individuals) and labour force participation
(again a reflection of the productivity of individuals). It
is also indicated by the more than satisfactory rates of
return to education and training (Long and Shah 2008).
Statistical analyses show that an individual’s education
and training has a significant positive effect on their
earnings and likelihood of employment, although higher
earnings are more likely for higher level qualifications
(Long and Shah 2008; Burke et al. 2003; Ryan 2002).
Following job separation, Shah (2009) shows that males
with qualifications are less likely to become unemployed
and women with qualifications are less likely to leave
the labour force. Even the lowest level qualifications
(Certificate I/II) seem to be important in keeping people
attached to the labour market.
1 | introduction
Education and training however affect more than an
individual’s earnings and labour market experience.
They have positive effects on the individual’s health,
investment decisions and consumer behaviour.
Society-wide effects range from reduced crime and
social welfare expenditure to expansion of general and
institutional trust and civic cooperation.
Sound development of policies on education and
training requires up-to-date information on economic
changes and how these changes are likely to affect the
future demand for skills. The results of these analyses
are also of vital interest to other stakeholders in the
labour and education and training markets, including
individuals making choices about careers and courses
and education and training providers planning course
offerings. In a demand-driven system, with education
and training entitlements limited for each individual, the
need for robust and reliable information that is easily
accessible to all parties is even greater. As evidenced
by the recent experience in Victoria1, asymmetry in
the information available to different parties can lead
to problems such as under or over supply of specific
skilled labour and sub-standard quality (e.g. anecdotal
reports in the media suggest some training providers
reduce hours of training delivery to cut costs).
The Australian Government has set up eleven national
Industry Skills Councils (ISCs) to provide advice on
the skills needs of Australian industry. The mandate
of Australia’s ISCs is to bring together industry,
educators and governments and unite them on
a common industry-led agenda for action on skills
and workforce development.
TLISC is one of eleven Industry Skills Councils and is
responsible for the assessment of current and future
skills needs in Transport and Logistics industries, which
include road, rail, air and water transport; transport
support services; postal and courier pickup and delivery
services; and warehousing and storage. These services
are important for the economy as they underpin a range
of other industries and activities, from transporting and
storing freight to the movement of people by public
and private transport. Their contribution to the gross
domestic product (GDP) of Australia, in terms of gross
value added (GVA), in 20011-12 was $70,833 million,
or 4.9 per cent (ABS 2012).
$ 70,833
ross
as the G
w
n
o
li
il
m
) that
ed (GVA
d
d
A
e
lu
Va
y the
ibuted b s
tr
n
o
c
s
wa
tic
and logis 2.
01
transport
2
1
s in 201
industrie
1
Victoria introduced an uncapped ‘entitlement’ model for funding vocational education and training (VET) from 2009 (Government of Victoria 2008).
This led to a blowout in the state budget for VET. As a result the Government drastically reduced the funding for a range of courses.
Australian
Australian
transport
transport
andand
logistics
logistics
industry
industry
Forecasts
Forecasts
ofof
labour
labour
and
andskill
skillrequirements
requirements 2013–17
14
1.1 Macroeconomic context
The current broader macroeconomic context is relevant
in understanding the demand for labour and skills in the
Transport and Logistics industries. Macro conditions
have a direct or indirect impact on all industry sectors.
This section provides this context. It also provides a short
discussion on some of the longer term demographic and
economic challenges facing Australia.
The Australian economy, like most other economies
around the world, experienced the fallout from the
global financial crisis. While the impact of the crisis
has been rather severe for many countries, Australia
has escaped relatively unscathed from the experience.
The Government’s stimulus packages together with the
continuing demand for Australian resources from China,
Japan, South Korea and India cushioned the economy
from the worst effects of the crisis.
The economy has continued to be resilient despite the
winding down of the stimulus. This was mainly because
of continuing global demand for Australian resources. The
economy has continued to grow, with the latest gross
domestic product (GDP) figures indicating seasonally
adjusted growth of 3.7 per cent (trend 3.8 per cent) in the
year to June 2012 (ABS 2012a). This is higher than the 3
per cent forecast in the 2012 Federal budget (Australian
Government 2012b). The budget forecasts the economy
to grow by 3.25 per cent in 2012-13 and by 3 per cent
the following year. The seasonally adjusted employment
growth for 2011-12 was 0.7 per cent (ABS 2012b), which
is slightly higher than the budget forecast. The forecast for
2012-13 is 1.25 per cent and for 2013-14 it is 1.5 per cent.
The budget forecasts for the labour force participation
rates for these years are constant at 65.3 per cent.
The resources boom has improved Australia’s terms of
trade. This together with the high interest rates in Australia
relative to those in most other developed countries has
strengthened the value of the Australian dollar relative to
most other major currencies.
While the economies and labour markets of the
mining states of Western Australia, Queensland
and the Northern Territory are expanding rapidly
as a result of the resources boom, the traditional
manufacturing states of New South Wales, Victoria
and South Australia are doing relatively poorly, but
not as badly as some other parts of the developed
world. This patchwork economic progress is often
referred to as the ‘two speed’ economy in the media
and has become a topic of hot debate more recently
because the geographic disparities seem to have
increased to well above historic levels. While the
average unemployment rate in Australia in the first
quarter of 2012 was 5.6 per cent, in some parts of
the country it was well above this level. For instance,
in West Moreton in Queensland unemployment was
10.9 per cent and in Mersey-Lyell in Tasmania it was
9.8 per cent (Australian Government 2012a). Such
regional disparities in output, employment growth and
unemployment rates are not unique to Australia; they
exist in many Organisation for Economic Co-operation
(OECD) countries, with skills shortages in some regions
coexisting with high unemployment in other regions
(OECD 2005).
The higher Australian dollar has adversely affected the
trade-exposed non-resource sectors of the Australian
economy (e.g. tourism and manufacturing) although
for others it has meant a reduction in the input costs
(e.g. costs of imported capital equipment). Tourism
to Australia is not only sensitive to the value of the
Australian dollar but it is also affected by the health of
economies from which Australia traditionally receives
tourists, for example, Europe, Japan and the U.S.
However a recent report suggests inbound tourism
from China is set to increase over the next few years
as evidenced by a number of Chinese airlines planning
to increase the number of weekly flights to Australia.
This may then offset some of the decline from the
traditional sources.
23.5
million projected
Australian population
by 2015.
26.8
million projected
Australian
population
by 2025.
1 | introduction
However, prices for iron ore and coal, the two
commodities that make up a significant proportion
of Australia’s exports, have declined. This has largely
been a result of softening of the Chinese economy
and increasing new supplies of these commodities
coming on the market. China has also built up large
stockpiles of these commodities. Partly as a result of
these developments there has been some slowing down
and some cancellations of resource projects. (e.g. BHP
Billiton decision to defer expansion of Olympic Dam
project in South Australia and delay Port Headland
harbour expansion and Fortescue Metals decision to
cut jobs and defer several projects). To ensure growth
continues, the Chinese government has launched a new
stimulus package worth US$150 billion to be spent on
infrastructure.
The Australian Government has initiated some major
economic and social reforms, the pricing of carbon and
the construction of the National Broadband Network being
the most significant. Pricing carbon, however, is unlikely
to have much employment effect, at least in net terms.
However additional skill needs may arise from adaptation
and mitigation activities (e.g. improving vehicle fuel
efficiency through CleanRun Ecodrive program developed
by the Department of Environment and Conservation in
Western Australia). The price on carbon has the potential
to spur innovation in the more efficient use of resources.
The other major reform has been the introduction of the
Minerals Resource Rent Tax on iron ore and coal, the
intention of which is to provide an improved return to
the community from the mineral wealth. Many long-term
challenges, however, remain for Australia.
The Intergenerational Report 20102 contains population
and macroeconomic projections for Australia to 2050
(Australian Government 2010). It identifies ageing
(particularly the increase in the old age dependency
ratio3) and climate change as presenting significant
long-term risks for the economy and sustainability
of government finances.
IGR (2010) determines long-term projections of economic
growth based on the three Ps—population (15 years or
older), participation (average hours worked per working
person 15 years or older) and productivity (average output
per hour worked). The future size of the population is
determined on the basis of assumptions made about
the future fertility and mortality rates and the level of net
migration. The age-gender composition of the population
affects the participation rate and future growth in
productivity is based on historical experience.
On this basis IGR (2010) projects GDP growth to
slow to an average of 2.7 per cent per year until 2025
from the 3.3 per cent reported over the last 40 years.
Growth in real GDP per capita is also projected to
decline from 1.9 to 1.5 per cent per year over the
same period which is mainly a result of declining
labour productivity. The report expects the labour
force participation rate of those aged 15 years or
older to decline from about 65 per cent in 2010 to
63 per cent in 2025. IGR (2010) expects the demand
for Australian resources from East Asia and India
continuing.
Australia’s population is projected to grow to 23.5
million by 2015 and then 26.8 million by 2025
(ABS 2008).4 The projections assume net overseas
migration averaging 180,000 per year, fertility rate of
1.9 babies per woman and increasing life expectancy.
Current Australian Government policy puts a relatively
higher emphasis on skilled migration in the overall
migration program. Skilled migrants generally have a
much higher participation rate in the labour force than
other migrants. The skilling of Australian residents
must however remain a priority to ensure future
growth, improved living standards, social inclusion
and equity (Australian Workforce and Productivity
Agency 2012).
The ageing of the population will also affect future
labour supply. Reforms that reduce barriers to
participation can lift growth and reduce future
pressures on labour supply. Improving educational
attainment would be one way to lift aggregate
labour force participation because people holding
qualifications are more likely to participate than those
who do not hold qualifications.
Improving the skills base of the workforce is thus
emerging as a critical factor if Australia is to meet
the economic, environmental and social challenges
of the future. Skilled migration may provide a shortterm solution, but a long-term sustainable solution
requires continual improvement of the skills of the
existing workforce and higher level skills for new
entrants. This has to be more than just an increase
in the volume of completed qualifications. The more
important issue is the quality of the product. If the
quality is poor then the confidence in the whole
system will be undermined (Australian Workforce
and Productivity Agency 2012). Reputation and
confidence once damaged can take a long time
to rebuild.
2
IGR (2010)
3
The old age dependency ratio is the number of people aged 65 years or older to the number in the working age population (15–64 years).
4
These are Series B projections. Series A projections are 23.8 million and 28.1 million, respectively and Series C projections are 23.1 million and 25.6 million respectively.
Australian Government (2010) projection of population in 2025 is 27.5 million.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
16
1.2Measures of education and training
Individuals accumulate human capital through learning
which can be formal or informal. While there are
measures of formal learning, none exists for informal
learning, which means informal learning cannot be
included in a model to assess future demand for
education and training.
The outcomes of formal learning can be completed
qualifications or skill sets, which includes certificates
of attainment. Skill sets are defined as single units of
competency or combinations of units of competency
from a nationally endorsed Training Package, which
link to a licence or regulatory requirement, or a defined
industry need. Regular labour force surveys conducted
by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) collect
data only on qualifications and not on skill sets. This
is because there is no agreed standard for skill sets
for general use although skill sets are already being
developed for use in some industries.
Notwithstanding the limitations of qualifications as a
complete measure of the human capital of an individual,
they are nevertheless very important in the labour
market for both employers and employees.
The signalling theory suggests employers use
qualifications to screen and match applicants to jobs.
Qualifications can be particularly important for new
entrants to the labour market (e.g. young people
(15–24 years) and recent migrants) who may lack
work experience and acceptable employer references.
New entrants generally have a high job turnover and
frequently use qualifications to indicate their human
capital value to employers (Shah 2009).
In this report, therefore, qualifications are used as a
measure of education and training. Furthermore, only
the highest qualification a person holds is considered
even though many people hold multiple qualifications at
the same or different levels. Once again, this is because
data on multiple qualifications are seldom collected. In
the transport industries many people hold occupational
licences (e.g. drivers, pilots etc.) which are often not
part of a qualification. This is an additional unmeasured
demand for training in these industries.
1 | introduction
Table 1.1
Population projections by age, Australia, 2013–17 (millions)
Age group
Year
15–19
20–24
25–34
35–44
45–54
55–64
Total
2012
1.488
1.595
3.194
3.175
3.069
2.621
15.141
2013
1.486
1.616
3.257
3.194
3.086
2.660
15.300
2014
1.487
1.632
3.319
3.208
3.110
2.709
15.465
2015
1.486
1.641
3.383
3.224
3.133
2.756
15.624
2016
1.490
1.642
3.438
3.234
3.168
2.810
15.782
2017
1.492
1.643
3.483
3.255
3.197
2.865
15.935
Change 2012–17
0.004
0.026
0.227
0.061
0.111
0.204
0.635
Change 2012–17 (%)
0.3
1.7
7.1
1.9
3.6
7.8
4.2
Source: ABS (2008) Series B.
1.3 Future supply of vocational qualifications
The future supply of people with qualifications will
largely be a function of the:
®®
®®
number of people who will complete qualifications
net migration of people with qualifications to
Australia.
The two main factors affecting the number of people
completing qualifications in the future will be the size
and age structure of the population and participation
rate in education and training.
NCVER (2012) shows the participation rate in VET
among the population aged 15–64 years increased
from 11.3 per cent to 12 per cent from 2007 to
2011. While the participation rates increased for
all age cohorts, the highest increase was for the
cohort aged 15–19 years. Part of the increase in the
participation rate in 2011 can be attributed to the
introduction of the entitlement model in Victoria. The
reduction in the funding for VET in the 2012 Victorian
budget will see participation rate moderate in
coming years.
Table 1.1 shows population projections for Australia
by age from 2012 to 2017. Under a middle scenario
(Series B) the ABS projects Australia’s population
aged 15–64 years will increase by about 635,000
people from 2012 to 2017. The largest percentage
increase will be in the size of the cohort aged 55–64
5
years followed by the cohort aged 25–34 years. Only a
marginal increase is projected in the size of cohort aged
15–19 years.
Even if participation rate were to return to the pre-2011
rate, the number of people participating in VET will
continue to increase over the next five years because of
the expected increase in the population across all age
groups. However this will depend on further increases
in public funding of the system. While current Australian
Government policy is to increase, or at least maintain,
the current level of funding, various state governments
are keen to reduce funding to help balance their state
budgets.
The supply of qualifications is also affected by the
willingness of employers to take on trainees and
apprentices, which in turn depends on the state of the
economy. The supply of people with VET qualifications
can also be boosted with little additional cost by
improving course completion rates which are relatively
low compared to completion rates for undergraduate
courses.5
Net overseas migration has the potential to increase the
supply of people with VET qualifications. The number
coming through this source depends on government
policy on migrant intake and the proportion of the intake
that hold VET qualifications. It also depends on whether
the migrants’ qualifications are recognised in Australia.
Foyster, Hon and Shah (2000) estimated course completions in TAFE institutes in Australia from 1994 to 1996 to be about 27 per cent. In a more recent study, Mark and
Karmel (2010) also estimate course completion of about 27 per cent for students who commenced in 2005. Undergraduate course completions in higher education
have been estimated to be at least 65 per cent (Shah and Burke 1999; Urban et al. 1999; Martin, Maclachlan and Karmel 2001). Data on completions of courses
provided by private providers are generally available.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
18
1.4 The workforce covered by TLISC
TLISC’s main role is skills and workforce development
at the sub-professional level in the Transport and
Logistics industries. As such it currently manages
the development and upgrading of four industry
training packages which are used to deliver vocational
education training (VET). These packages are:
®®
Transport and Logistics
®®
Rail
®®
Maritime
®®
Aviation.
The Transport and Logistics industries include a
broader workforce than that covered by TLISC. This
is because the sector employs many professional
workers (e.g. accountants) whose training is
outside TLISC’s responsibility. On the other hand,
there are workers in other industries (e.g. drivers
in the mining industry) whose skills development
is the responsibility of TLISC. It is therefore more
appropriate to define the TLISC workforce by
occupations rather than by industry sectors.
Of the 998 occupations listed in the Australian and
New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations
(ANZSCO) at the six-digit level, it was found that 61
of them could be considered to be within TLISC’s
coverage. They can be grouped as follows:
®®
Logistics (15 occupations).
®®
Road Transport (16 occupations)
®®
Aviation (11 occupations)
®®
Rail (12 occupations)
®®
Maritime and Ports (7 occupations)
Box 1.1Australian and New Zealand
Standard Classification of
Occupations (ANZSCO)
ANZSCO is a skill-based classification of occupations
providing a basis for standardised collection, analysis
and dissemination of occupation data for Australia
and New Zealand. It reflects the contemporary
labour market in these two countries. Its scope is all
occupations and jobs in the two countries’ labour
markets undertaken for pay or profit, including jobs
occupied by people working for themselves. ANZSCO
is not designed to cover work not undertaken for pay
or profit, for example voluntary work. However, this
does not preclude ANZSCO from describing such
activities.
In Australia, ANZSCO replaces the Australian Standard
Classification of Occupations (ASCO) Second Edition.
The ANZSCO classification has five hierarchical
levels:
®®
8 major groups (1-digit)
®®
43 sub-major groups (2-digit)
®®
97 minor groups (3-digit)
®®
358 unit groups (4-digit)
®®
998 occupations (6-digit).
The 998 occupations at the 6-digit level are clustered
into 358 unit groups. The occupations in each cluster
have similar features. Similarly, the 358 unit groups are
clustered into 97 minor groups, etc.
The conceptual model of the classification uses skill
level and skill specialisation to define the groups.
Five skill levels are used in the classification. The
occupations are distinguished by the tasks performed
in occupations. All occupations are at one skill level.
1 | introduction
61
occupations of
the
Australian and
New
Zealand Stand
ard
Classification
of
Occupation (A
NZSCO)
at the six-digit
level
could be cons
idered
to be within TL
ISC’s
coverage.
Australian
Australian
transport
transport
andand
logistics
logistics
industry
industry
Forecasts
Forecasts
ofof
labour
labour
and
andskill
skillrequirements
requirements 2013–17
20
This chapter describes the profile of the Transport and Logistics workforce in
Australia and how it has changed over the last decade. The chapter includes
descriptions of the distributions of age, gender, qualifications and hours of
workers in these industries as well as descriptions of the regional distribution
of employment. These historical trends in employment are useful in providing
a context for the analysis of the projections of demand for skilled labour in
these industries.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
2
Employment
trends
2002–12
The chapter uses ABS data
collected through the Labour Force
and Education and Work surveys
to provide the descriptions.
While data at greater detail from Education and Work
surveys were publicly available in the past, this is
no longer the case since the end of 2011. The ABS
changed its policy on the release of these data citing
concerns about issues of confidentiality.
In the flowing sections all analyses, except that about
qualifications which use data from the Education and
Work surveys from 2001 to 2011, are based on data
from the Labour Force surveys from 2002 to 2012. The
Education and Work data for 2012 are not released until
the end of 2012.
In this report all measures of the workforce are in terms
of persons rather than full-time equivalent (FTE). This is
because training needs can only be measured in terms
of the number of people to be trained.
As discussed in chapter 1, the scope of this report is
defined in terms of occupations rather than industry
sectors. Altogether 61 occupations as defined at the
six-digit level in ANZSCO are included in the analysis
below. These occupations are grouped into five sectors:
®®
Logistics
®®
Road Transport
®®
Aviation
®®
Rail
®®
Maritime and Ports
A small number of small occupations in some sectors
could not be separately identified in the ABS data.
Examples of such occupations are Harbour Master and
Airport Manager. The number of people employed in
these occupations is however likely to be very small.
Tables 2.1 to 2.5 show the occupations included in
the five sectors and their associated skill level. ABS
(2006) defines skill level as a function of the range and
complexity of the set of tasks performed in a particular
occupation. The skill level of an occupation increases6
with the range and complexity of the set of tasks
required. It is measured operationally by:
®®
®®
®®
the level or amount of formal education and training
the amount of previous experience in a related
occupation, and
the amount of on-the-job training required to
competently perform the set of tasks required for that
occupation.
While most occupations in the Maritime and Ports
require the highest skill level, occupations in the Road
Transport generally require lower level skills.
6
For some reason the skill level has a reverse order to one that is logically
expected with the one as the highest skill level and five as the lowest level.
2 | Employment trends 2002–12
Table 2.1
Occupations in the Logistics sector and their skill level
Occupation
Skill level
Supply and Distribution Manager
1
Post Office Manager
2
Fleet Manager
2
Transport Company Manager
2
Postal Sorting Officer
5
Stock Clerk
4
Warehouse Administrator
4
Radio Despatcher
4
Despatching and Receiving Clerk
4
Import-Export Clerk
4
Crane, Hoist or Lift Operator
4
Forklift Driver
4
Storeperson
4
Crane Chaser
5
Freight Handler (Rail or Road)
5
Table 2.2
Occupations in the Road Transport sector and their skill level
Occupation
Skill level
Armoured Car Escort
5
Driving Instructor
3
Courier
5
Postal Delivery Officer
5
Chauffeur
4
Taxi Driver
4
Automobile Drivers nec
4
Bus Driver
4
Charter and Tour Bus Driver
4
Passenger Coach Driver
4
Delivery Driver
4
Truck Driver (General)
4
Furniture Removalist
4
Tanker Driver
4
Tow Truck Driver
4
Truck Driver's Offsider
5
Table 2.3
Occupations in the Aviation sector and their skill level
Occupation
Skill level
Aeroplane Pilot
1
Air Traffic Controller
1
Flying Instructor
1
Helicopter Pilot
1
Air Transport Professionals nec
1
Aircraft Maintenance Engineer (Avionics)
3
Aircraft Maintenance Engineer (Mechanical)
3
Aircraft Maintenance Engineer (Structures)
3
Flight Attendant
3
Aircraft Baggage Handler and Airline Ground Crew
4
Aircraft Refueller
4
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
24
Table 2.4
Occupations in the Rail sector and their skill level
Occupation
Skill level
Railway Station Manager
2
Travel Attendants nec
3
Train Examiner
4
Transport Operations Inspector
4
Transport Conductor
5
Railway Signal Operator
4
Train Controller
4
Railway Track Plant Operator
4
Train Driver
4
Tram Driver
4
Railway Track Worker
4
Railways Assistant
5
Table 2.5
Occupations in the Maritime and Ports sector and their skill level
Occupation
Skill level
Ship's Engineer
1
Ship's Master
1
Ship's Officer
1
Ship's Surveyor
1
Marine Transport Professionals nec
1
Waterside Worker
5
Deck Hand
4
2.1 Employment trends—all sectors
Despite the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) employment
in Australia has grown each year over the past decade,
averaging a two per cent per year growth rate. A big
factor for the buoyant economy has been the surge
in demand for Australian resources by China, Japan,
Korea and India. Australia’s growing population,
because of an increase in the fertility rate and high
levels of immigration, is also a factor pushing up
employment growth.
Another factor that has affected employment growth
has been increasing participation in the labour force.
The participation increased from 63.3 per cent in 20027
to 65.4 per cent in 2012. While the male participation
rate barely changed, increasing by 0.1 percentage point
to 72 per cent over this period, the female participation
rate increased by 3.9 percentage points to 58.9 per cent
(ABS 2012b). The participation rate
for people aged 55–64 years has also increased over
the same period (Plumb, Baker and Spence 2010;
ABS 2009).
2.1.1 Employment trends by industry
Table 2.6 shows employment by ANZIC defined
industry sectors in Australia in 2002, 2007 and 2012.
The sector of most interest for TLISC is Transport,
Postal and Warehousing. As discussed earlier, there
is some overlap of the employment in this sector
7
and employment in the occupations for which TLISC
has primary training and workforce development
responsibility.
Employment in Australia reached 11.4 million persons
in 2012. Since 2002 it has increased by a quarter, or 2.3
per cent per year (Table 2.6). While employment declined
about 25 per cent in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing,
it increased by 207 per cent in Mining, albeit from
a low base.
Total employment in Transport, Postal and Warehousing,
which constitutes the Transport and Logistics industries,
was 566,000 persons in 2012. It has increased by 2.2
per cent per year since 2002, which is slightly below the
average rate for all industries. About 165,000 businesses
operated in the sector in 2001-12 (Transport and
Logistics Skills Council 2012).
Road Transport is the largest sector in Transport and
Logistics with 40 per cent of employment in 2012. The
smallest sector is Water Transport with 11,000 workers.
Employment growth across different sectors varied from
9.2 per cent in Warehousing and Storage Services to 0.5
per cent in Road Transport. Strong growth in employment
is recorded in Rail Transport, Transport Support Services
and Warehousing and Storage. The high growth in
Rail Transport can mostly be linked to expansion in
infrastructure to service the expanding mining industry.
This expansion seems to have occurred after 2007.
The year 2002 refers to the financial year ending June 2002. Unless otherwise stated, this is the convention adopted in the rest of this report.
2 | Employment trends 2002–12
Table 2.6
Employment by industry, persons, 2002, 2007 and 2012 (‘000s)
Industry sector
2002
2007
2012
Growth 2002-12 (%)
Average
Total
annual rate2
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
438
349
335
-23.5
-2.5
Mining
81
135
248
207.0
12.1
Manufacturing
1,043
1,017
956
-8.3
-0.8
Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services
83
105
153
84.5
6.5
Construction
694
936
1,023
47.4
4.0
Wholesale Trade
367
403
412
12.4
1.2
Retail Trade
1,046
1,177
1,217
16.3
1.6
Accommodation & Food Services
641
689
766
19.5
1.8
Transport, Postal & Warehousing1
459
516
566
23.5
2.2
Road Transport
220
233
228
3.6
0.5
Rail Transport
26
28
45
74.9
6.9
Water Transport
11
11
11
2.4
3.1
Air & Space Transport
50
48
54
8.8
1.3
Postal & Courier Pick-up & Delivery Services
80
83
87
9.0
1.1
Transport Support Services
38
46
61
60.0
5.5
Warehousing & Storage Services
24
49
53
121.9
9.2
Information Media & Telecommunications
215
247
217
1.1
0.2
Financial & Insurance Services
347
399
428
23.5
2.2
Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services
153
199
208
36.0
3.3
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
594
738
890
49.8
4.1
Administrative & Support Services
326
354
401
23.2
2.2
Public Administration & Safety
528
636
730
38.2
3.3
Education & Training
665
747
869
30.7
2.8
Health Care & Social Assistance
899
1061
1,345
49.7
4.1
Arts & Recreation Services
145
180
210
44.4
3.8
Other Services
422
417
458
8.5
0.9
All industries
9,144
10,305
11,432
25.0
2.3
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) (2012b). Scope: persons aged 15 years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used
with caution.
The total includes two sectors, Other Transport and Transport and Postal & Warehousing (not fully defined), which are not included in the table because they are relatively small
but the employment in these sectors is included in the total.
1
2
The calculation of the average annual growth rate use annual data from 2002 to 2012.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
26
2.1.2 Employment trends by occupation
Table 2.7 shows employment generally grew strongly in
high-skill occupations such as Managers
and Professionals. The highest growth rate however
was in Community and Personal Services which
includes carers, hospitality workers and protective
service workers.
2.1.3 Employment trends by qualification
Data on qualifications are from the Education and
Work surveys. They relate to the employed population
aged 15–64 years from 2001 to 2011 and are about
the highest level qualification each person holds. The
qualifications profile of the Australian workforce has
been changing with a trend toward more people holding
qualifications and at higher levels. In 2001, 54.2 per
2 | Employment trends 2002–12
cent of the working population held qualifications and
52.6 per cent of these qualifications were at a diploma
or higher level. By 2011, 62.7 per cent held qualifications
and 59.6 per cent of the qualifications were at the higher
levels.
®®
®®
The number of people with qualifications in the workforce
has been increasing at a much higher rate than overall
employment—3.7 per cent compared to 2.2 per cent per
year. In particular, the number of people holding Diploma
or Certificate IV increased by about 10 per cent per
year. On the other hand, the number holding certificate
I level qualification declined by 9 per cent per year.
These trends indicate substantial skills deepening in the
workforce (Shah (2010).
®®
®®
A number of factors could be the cause of skills
deepening. They include:
Table 2.7
An overall rise in the level of skill and qualification
requirements within occupations due to
technological and organisational changes.
The significant returns to training in the labour
market for those who invest in education, as well
as reforms to education systems broadening
access.
The availability of more people with higher level
qualifications make it possible for industry to use
more skill-intensive technologies which further
foster the demand for skills.
The relatively higher demand for people with
qualifications than the total number required can
also be seen as reducing the degree to which there
are skill gaps within occupations—the employment
of people who are inadequately qualified for the
jobs they hold.
Employment by occupation, persons, 2002, 2007 and 2012 (‘000s)
Occupation group
Managers
2002
2007
2012
Growth 2002-12 (%)
Average
Total
annual rate2
1,159
1,318
1,484
28.1
2.5
Professionals
1,763
2,068
2,493
41.4
3.5
Technicians & Trades
1,365
1,571
1,675
22.7
2.1
Community & Personal Services
756
902
1,095
44.8
3.8
Clerical & Administrative Services
1,480
1,603
1,702
14.9
1.4
Sales
939
996
1,058
12.7
1.3
Machinery Operators & Drivers
629
695
767
22.0
2.1
Labourers
1,052
1,153
1,158
10.1
1.0
All occupations
9,144
10,305
11,432
25.0
2.3
Source: Unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data. Scope: persons aged 15 years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and
should be used with caution.
2
The calculation of the average annual growth rate is based on annual data from 2002 to 2012.
Table 2.8
Employment by qualification, persons, Australia, 2001, 2006 and 2011 (‘000s)
Level of qualification
2001
2006
2011
Growth 2001-11 (%)
Average
Total
annual rate2
With qualifications
4839
5797
6946
43.5
3.7
Postgraduate
506
638
861
70.1
5.5
Bachelor
1,343
1,716
2,142
59.5
4.8
Advanced diploma
440
502
506
14.9
1.6
Diploma
254
398
634
149.2
9.7
Certificate IV
224
304
550
145.0
9.6
Certificate III
1,394
1,616
1,812
30.0
2.7
Certificate II
389
431
351
-9.9
-0.8
Certificate I
289
192
91
-68.6
-9.0
Without qualification
4,088
4,050
4,136
1.2
0.1
All occupations
8,927
9,847
11,081
24.1
2.2
Source: Unpublished ABS Education and Work (Cat. no. 6227.0) quarterly data. Scope: persons aged 15–64 years. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors
and should be used with caution.
2
The calculation of the average annual growth rate use annual data from 2001 to 2011.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
28
800,000
workers employed
in the five TLISC
sectors in 2012.
2.2Employment trends—Transport and Logistics industries
The number of people for whom TLISC is responsible
in terms of their skills and workforce development
increased at a faster rate than the rest of the
workforce—2.5 per cent compared to 2.2 per cent per
year (Table 2.9). The calculation of each rate of growth
is based on 44 observations—quarterly data from 2002
to 2012. In 2012, employment in the five TLISC sectors
was just less than 800,000 having increased by 28 per
cent since 2002.8
The workforce covered by TLISC is larger than that
represented in the Transport, Postal and Warehousing
industry sector (Table 2.6). The two workforces are
strictly not comparable though. For instance, the Rail
industry grew at 6.9 per cent per year (Table 2.6), but
the Rail sector as defined in this chapter grew at only
2.8 per cent year, which is still above average.
The five sectors vary in size. Logistics and Road
Transport are by far the two biggest sectors, each
employing about 350,000 people in 2012. Employment
in the Logistics sector increased 3.5 per cent per year,
the highest growth rate for any sector. This is hardly
surprising given Australia’s heavy reliance on road
transport due to its low population density in most
regions apart from those on the eastern seaboard.
8
For a very long time there has also been underinvestment in rail. All other sectors are relatively small
with only 16,000 people employed in the Maritime and
Ports sector in 2012.
Employment in Aviation seems to have increased only
since 2007, partly because of the growth in outbound
tourism and fly-in fly-out type of work in the resources
sector. The Australian dollar has been rising against all
major currencies since 2006, apart from a brief period
during the global financial crisis, and this has positively
affected outbound tourism.
The resources boom together with higher population
growth has meant Australia’s employment distribution
has shifted from New South Wales and South Australia
to Western Australia and Queensland (Tables 2.10 and
2.11). A similar shift in employment is also evident
in the Transport and Logistics industries, with New
South Wales’ share decreasing by three percentage
points and Western Australia’s share increasing by 2.2
percentage points. The growth in the resources sector
in Western Australia is a significant contributor to the
increased demand. For example, the use of fly-in fly-out
employment contracts in many mining projects has
resulted in an increase in employment in the
Aviation sector.
Aplebaum Consulting Group Pty (2008) estimated the size of the workforce in the transport and logistics industries in 2006 to be about 1.2 million. The report however uses a
wider definition of who is included in these industries. It includes all people whose job involves ‘wholly or in part any transport and logistics activities’. For instance, under this
definition, all farmers are included in the total presumably because they mostly all drive some motorised vehicle. Similarly travel agency managers, ambulance officers and
intensive care ambulance paramedics are also included in the total.
2 | Employment trends 2002–12
Table 2.9
Employment in Transport and Logistics industries
by TLISC sector, persons, 2002, 2007 and 2012 (‘000s)
Sector
2002
2007
Growth 2002-12 (%)
Average
Total
annual rate2
2012
TLISC sectors
623
722
797
28.0
2.5
Logistics
251
322
351
40.2
3.5
Road Transport
291
318
351
20.4
1.9
Aviation
44
42
50
14.3
1.5
Rail
22
25
29
31.8
2.8
15
15
16
5.9
0.7
Non-TLISC sectors
Maritime & Ports
8,521
9,583
10,635
24.8
2.2
All sectors
9,144
10,305
11,432
25.0
2.3
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census. Scope: persons aged 15
years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
2
The calculation of the average annual growth rate use annual data from 2002 to 2012.
Table 2.10 Regional distribution of employment in Transport and Logistics
industries by sector, Australia, 2002 (%)
State/Territory
Logistics
Road
Aviation
Rail
Maritime
& Ports
TLISC
sectors
Non-TLISC
sectors
All
NSW
32.8
34.3
31.4
34.1
31.2
33.4
33.4
33.4
Victoria
25.6
23.3
19.0
21.4
17.3
23.7
25.1
25.0
Queensland
19.2
20.2
24.7
20.8
25.9
20.3
18.7
18.8
South Australia
8.0
7.2
7.4
7.1
8.0
7.6
7.5
7.5
Western Australia
10.5
10.3
12.2
11.2
11.3
10.5
10.2
10.2
Tasmania
1.8
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
Northern Territory
0.9
0.9
2.2
1.5
3.3
1.1
1.1
1.1
ACT
1.1
1.5
0.7
1.5
0.9
1.3
1.9
1.9
Australia
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census. Scope: persons aged 15
years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
Table 2.11 Regional distribution of employment in Transport and Logistics
industries by sector, Australia, 2012 (%)
State/Territory
Logistics
Road
Aviation
Rail
Maritime
& Ports
TLISC
sectors
Non-TLISC
sectors
All
NSW
30.1
31.0
28.6
31.6
28.4
30.4
31.5
31.4
Victoria
26.8
22.5
21.4
21.7
20.6
24.3
25.1
25.1
Queensland
20.4
22.7
24.3
21.3
25.6
21.8
20.3
20.4
South Australia
6.6
6.9
5.8
7.2
6.3
6.7
7.2
7.2
Western Australia
12.2
12.8
14.9
14.1
13.1
12.7
10.9
11.0
Tasmania
2.1
2.0
2.1
1.8
2.4
2.0
2.1
2.1
Northern Territory
1.0
1.1
2.3
1.2
3.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
ACT
0.8
1.0
0.5
1.2
0.5
0.9
1.9
1.8
Australia
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census. Scope: persons aged 15
years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
30
Table 2.12 Employment in Logistics and Warehousing sector
by occupation, persons, 2002, 2007 and 2012 (‘000s)
Occupation
2002
2007
2012
Growth 2002-12 (%)
Average
Total
annual rate2
Storeperson
72
111
119
65.6
5.5
Forklift Driver
52
57
66
27.3
2.5
Supply and Distribution Manager
20
26
30
47.8
4.1
Despatching and Receiving Clerk
21
24
27
28.7
2.8
Stock Clerk
17
20
22
28.6
2.8
Warehouse Administrator
15
17
19
28.7
2.8
Transport Company Manager
11
16
18
55.7
4.7
Crane, Hoist or Lift Operator
10
11
13
28.2
2.7
Postal Sorting Officer
9
11
10
9.4
1.1
Freight Handler (Rail or Road)
8
12
8
4.1
1.0
Import-Export Clerk
6
7
8
28.6
2.8
Post Office Manager
4
4
4
4.5
0.6
Radio Despatcher
3
3
3
31.9
2.9
Fleet Manager
2
2
3
55.3
4.7
Crane Chaser
1
1
1
44.4
4.0
All
251
322
351
40.2
3.5
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census. Scope: persons aged 15
years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
2
The calculation of the average annual growth rate is based on annual data from 2002 to 2012.
2.2.1Employment trends—Logistics and Warehousing sector
Occupations that comprise the Logistics sector vary in the
number of people employed in them. Table 2.12 shows
the changes in the number of people employed in each of
these occupations. The occupations are ordered according
to the level of employment in 2012.
About a third of all people employed in the Logistics sector
in 2012 were as Storepersons which is by far the largest
occupation in the sector. It is also the fastest growing
occupation with an annual growth rate of 5.5 per cent.
Forklift Driver is second largest occupation and employed
66,000 people in 2012, an increase of 14,000 since 2002.
All other occupations in the sector are relatively small,
each employing fewer than 30,000 people in 2012. Most
managerial jobs in the sector have increased quite rapidly.
The number of Supply and Distribution Managers, Transport
Company Managers and Fleet Managers employed almost
doubled between 2002 and 2012. On the other hand,
employment of Postal Sorting Officers and Post Office
Managers seem to have stagnated. The demand for these
jobs is probably being affected by the introduction of new
sorting technology for mail as well as by the trend towards
electronic mail. This is despite the rapid growth of parcel
transport as a result of online shopping.
The following subsections describe the gender, age
and qualification distributions in the occupations that
comprise the Logistics sector. As the above table
shows, many occupations in the sector are relatively
small. In the following analyses these occupations
have been grouped with others.
Gender distribution
The overwhelming majority of people working in the
Transport and Logistics industries are male—86 per
cent in 2012 (Table 2.13). This proportion has only
slightly reduced since 2002. Slightly more than half of
the rest of the Australian workforce is male—52 per
cent in 2012 compared to 53 per cent in 2002.
In 2012, 81 per cent of workers in the Logistics sector
were male, which is a little less than in Transport and
Logistics industries as a whole. The gender balance
however varies with occupation. For instance, almost
all Forklift Drivers are male but women make up as
much as 41 per cent of all Stock Clerks in 2012. A
quarter of all Supply and Distribution Managers are
also female.
2 | Employment trends 2002–12
Age distribution
The main difference between the age distribution
of people employed in the Transport and Logistics
industries in 2012 and that of others in the workforce
is in the tails (Table 2.14). The Transport and Logistics
industries have relatively fewer young (15–24 yearolds) people and relatively more old (55 years or older)
people than in the rest of the workforce.
per cent of the workforce is 60 years or older and will
be approaching retirement over the next five years.
People working in the Logistics and Warehousing sector
are relatively younger though, mainly because the
largest occupation in the sector, Storeperson, employs
large numbers of young people. In 2012, more than one
in every five Storeperson was aged 15–24 years but in
2002 nearly two out of every five were of this age. More
than half of all Supply and Distribution Managers are
aged 44 years or younger, which is surprising as one
generally expects managers to be older.
The Transport and Logistics industries’ workforce has
aged over the last decade, for instance, the proportion
of the workforce aged 55 years or older increased from
13 per cent in 2002 to 22 per cent in 2012. About 12
Table 2.13 Gender distribution of employment in Logistics and
Warehousing sector by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Occupation
2002
Logistics sector
2012
Male
Female
All
Male
Female
All
80
20
100
81
19
100
Storeperson
81
19
100
83
17
100
Forklift Driver
97
3
100
96
4
100
Stock Clerk1
63
37
100
59
41
100
Supply & Distribution Manager2
74
26
100
75
25
100
Fleet Manager3
75
25
100
89
11
100
97
3
100
99
1
100
87
13
100
86
14
100
Miscellaneous Workers
4
All TLISC sectors
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15 years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
1
Includes Postal Sorting Officer, Despatching and Receiving Clerk, Import-Export Clerk, Radio Despatcher.
2
Includes Post Office Manager and Warehouse Administrator.
3
Includes Transport Company Manager.
4
Includes Crane, Hoist and Lift operator, Crane Chaser and Freight Handler (Road and Rail).
Table 2.14 Age distribution of employment in Logistics and
Warehousing sector by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Occupation
2002
15-24
2012
25-44
45-54
55-59
60+
All
15-24
25-44
45-54
55-59
60+
All
Logistics sector
19
52
19
7
4
100
14
47
22
9
8
100
Storeperson
38
44
13
3
2
100
22
44
20
8
6
100
Forklift Driver
12
62
16
7
3
100
13
51
22
8
6
100
Stock Clerk1
12
53
23
8
4
100
11
48
21
10
9
100
7
52
28
8
5
100
6
50
26
11
8
100
1
45
34
13
6
100
1
37
33
17
13
100
Supply & Distribution Manager
Fleet Manager3
Miscellaneous Workers
4
All TLISC sectors
2
15
56
18
7
4
100
13
51
21
7
8
100
12
51
23
8
5
100
11
43
24
10
12
100
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15 years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
1
Includes Postal Sorting Officer, Despatching and Receiving Clerk, Import-Export Clerk, Radio Despatcher.
2
Includes Post Office Manager and Warehouse Administrator.
3
Includes Transport Company Manager.
4
Includes Crane, Hoist and Lift operator, Crane Chaser and Freight Handler (Road and Rail).
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
32
Qualification distribution
The Transport and Logistics workforce has also been
affected by the trends in qualifications in the general
population. As Table 2.15 shows, the proportion of its
workforce with qualifications increased from 34 per cent
in 2001 to 45 per cent in 2011, and the proportion with
diploma or higher level qualifications increased by 8
percentage points.
While the improvement in the qualifications profile in the
Logistics sector is slightly above average than in other
TLISC sectors, there is considerable variation in the
improvement across occupations. In some occupations,
for instance Stock Clerk, Supply and Distribution
Manager and Fleet Manager, less than 40 per cent held
qualifications in 2001 but in 2011 this proportion had
increased to between 53 and 65 per cent. The smallest
improvement in qualifications has been among Forklift
Drivers.
Hours worked
The ABS Labour Force survey collects data on the
actual hours a person worked in the reference week of
the survey. The actual hours worked can be different
to the usual hours a person works in a week. For
instance, if a person is sick or on annual leave during
the reference week then there will be a difference
between the two measures of hours worked. A person’s
full-time/part-time status is generally based on the usual
hours worked in a week. The following analysis is based
9
on actual hours worked and 1–34 hours is proxy for
part-time work and 35 hours or more for full-time work.
The estimates do not include those who report having
worked zero hours. People reporting zero hours are
usually on some kind of leave during the reference week
and, on average, represent between 5 and 6 per cent of
the total number of employed people.
The proportion of the Australian workforce who reported
working more than 34 hours per week remained largely
constant at about 64 per cent from 2002 to 2012, but
the proportion working 50 hours or more declined by 3
percentage points to 17 per cent.9
The percentage of the TLISC workforce working more
than 34 hours per week is however much higher (Table
2.16). It increased from 74 per cent in 2002 to 76 per
cent in 2012. The change generally reflects the change
in the rest of the workforce.
In the Logistics sector, the pattern of hours worked also
changed between 2002 and 2012. The proportion of
workers who reported working less than 34 hours per
week declined from 29 per cent in 2002 to 22 per cent
in 2012 and the proportion working 35–49 hours per
week increased correspondingly. The occupation which
experienced the largest change in hours worked is that
of Storeperson, with the proportion working less than
34 hours declining by 18 percentage points to 29 per
cent in 2012. Relatively more people report working
long hours in managerial occupations than in
other occupations.
Using the ABS definition of part-time work, the percentage working part-time in 2012 was 29.6 per cent (ABS 2012c).
2 | Employment trends 2002–12
Table 2.15 Qualification distribution of employment in Logistics and Warehousing
sector by occupation, 15–64 year-olds, Australia, 2001 and 2011 (%)
Occupation
2001
Higher
edu
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
All
2011
Higher
edu
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
All
Logistics sector
5
4
14
7
69
100
11
8
20
5
55
100
Storeperson
4
3
12
3
79
100
9
8
14
4
64
100
Forklift Driver
2
4
16
8
71
100
2
2
22
7
68
100
Stock Clerk1
6
5
14
11
62
100
15
12
22
4
47
100
Supply & Distribution Manager2
12
6
12
9
61
100
20
12
27
3
38
100
Fleet Manager
8
5
22
3
62
100
20
15
26
4
35
100
Miscellaneous Workers4
1
1
20
3
75
100
5
4
23
5
63
100
All TLISC sectors
5
4
20
6
66
100
9
8
23
5
55
100
3
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Education and Work (Cat. no. 6227.0) data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15–64 years. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
1
Includes Postal Sorting Officer, Despatching and Receiving Clerk, Import-Export Clerk, Radio Despatcher.
2
Includes Post Office Manager and Warehouse Administrator.
3
Includes Transport Company Manager.
4
Includes Crane, Hoist and Lift operator, Crane Chaser and Freight Handler (Road and Rail).
Table 2.16 Distribution of hours worked per week in Logistics and
Warehousing sector by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Occupation
2002
2012
1-15
16-34
35-49
50+
All
1-15
16-34
35-49
50+
All
Logistics sector
9
20
53
18
100
4
18
60
18
100
Storeperson
21
26
47
6
100
7
22
63
9
100
100
Forklift Driver
3
16
66
15
100
2
16
69
12
Stock Clerk1
5
20
60
15
100
4
20
61
15
100
Supply & Distribution Manager2
2
13
48
37
100
1
12
56
31
100
Fleet Manager3
2
15
37
46
100
3
12
33
52
100
Miscellaneous Workers4
7
20
47
25
100
8
12
47
33
100
All TLISC sectors
7
19
47
27
100
6
19
51
25
100
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15 years or older who reported greater than zero actual hours of work in the reference week. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors
and should be used with caution.
1
Includes Postal Sorting Officer, Despatching and Receiving Clerk, Import-Export Clerk, Radio Despatcher.
2
Includes Post Office Manager and Warehouse Administrator.
3
Includes Transport Company Manager.
4
Includes Crane, Hoist and Lift operator, Crane Chaser and Freight Handler (Road and Rail).
76%
orce
of TLISC workf
n 34
working more tha
in 2012.
ek
we
r
pe
s
ur
ho
Australian
Australian
transport
transport
andand
logistics
logistics
industry
industry
Forecasts
Forecasts
ofof
labour
labour
and
andskill
skillrequirements
requirements 2013–17
34
2.2.2Employment trends—Road Transport sector
Truck Driver is the largest occupation in the Road
Transport sector (Table 2.17). In 2012, the occupation
employed 167,000 persons, which is nearly half the
employment in the sector. However the growth rate in
employment of Truck Drivers is lower than the average
for the sector.
Courier and Bus Driver. All other occupations each
employed fewer than 20,000 people in 2012.
Employment of Delivery Drivers has increased at 3.4 per
cent per year. Such a high growth could be associated
with the rapid growth in internet shopping over the
same period. The rapid increase in Driver Instructor
numbers is probably associated with population growth,
but may be mainly because of higher migration.
Other occupations in the sector that employ relatively
large number of people are Delivery Driver, Taxi Driver,
Table 2.17 Employment in Road Transport sector by occupation,
persons, 2002, 2007 and 2012 (‘000s)
Occupation
Truck Driver (General)
2002
2007
2012
Growth 2002-12 (%)
Average
Total
annual rate2
142
152
167
17.5
1.7
Delivery Driver
36
41
47
32.4
3.4
Taxi Driver
27
28
34
26.4
2.5
Courier
22
24
28
26.4
2.5
Bus Driver
24
27
26
9.4
1.1
Postal Delivery Officer
14
16
15
9.4
1.1
Charter and Tour Bus Driver
7
7
9
26.4
2.4
Furniture Removalist
6
6
7
17.5
1.7
Driving Instructor
3
4
5
39.8
3.5
Chauffeur
3
3
3
17.2
1.7
Tanker Driver
2
2
3
26.4
2.4
Passenger Coach Driver
2
2
2
26.4
2.5
Tow Truck Driver
2
2
2
17.3
1.7
Automobile Drivers nec
1
1
2
26.5
2.5
Truck Driver's Offsider
1
2
1
4.1
1.0
Armoured Car Escort
1
1
1
20.0
2.0
All
291
318
351
20.4
1.9
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15 years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
2
The calculation of the average annual growth rate is based on annual data from 2002 to 2012.
Table 2.18 Gender distribution of employment in Road Transport
sector by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Occupation
2002
2012
Male
Female
All
Male
Female
All
Road Transport sector
94
6
100
93
7
100
Truck Driver (General)1
99
1
100
97
3
100
Delivery Driver2
86
14
100
86
14
100
Taxi Driver
3
94
6
100
95
5
100
Bus Driver4
91
9
100
86
14
100
Miscellaneous Workers5
83
17
100
94
6
100
All TLISC sectors
87
13
100
86
14
100
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15 years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
1
Includes Tanker Driver and Tow Truck Driver.
2
Includes Courier and Postal Delivery Officer.
3
Includes Chauffeur and Automobile Driver nec.
4
Includes Charter and Tour Bus Driver and Passenger Coach Driver.
5
Includes Driving Instructor, Furniture Removalist, Truck Driver’s Offsider and Armoured Car Escort.
2 | Employment trends 2002–12
Table 2.19 Age distribution of employment in Road Transport
sector by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Occupation
2002
2012
15-24
25-44
45-54
55-59
60+
All
15-24
25-44
45-54
55-59
60+
All
Road Transport sector
8
48
27
10
7
100
7
37
27
11
17
100
Truck Driver (General)1
6
53
26
9
6
100
5
42
30
10
14
100
Delivery Driver
15
47
23
10
5
100
12
35
26
12
14
100
3
41
31
16
10
100
7
38
20
10
25
100
1
31
41
14
13
100
2
22
26
17
33
100
2
Taxi Driver3
Bus Driver4
Miscellaneous Workers
5
All TLISC sectors
13
50
23
9
6
100
6
35
31
15
14
100
12
51
23
8
5
100
11
43
24
10
12
100
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15 years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
1
Includes Tanker Driver and Tow Truck Driver.
2
Includes Courier and Postal Delivery Officer.
3
Includes Chauffeur and Automobile Driver nec.
4
Includes Charter and Tour Bus Driver and Passenger Coach Driver.
5
Includes Driving Instructor, Furniture Removalist, Truck Driver’s Offsider and Armoured Car Escort.
Gender distribution
An overwhelming number of workers in the Road
Transport sector are male (Table 2.18). In only two
occupations—Delivery Driver and Bus Driver—
are there more than 10 per cent female workers.
Age distribution
The workforce in the Road Transport sector is relatively
older than the workforce in the Transport and Logistics
industries as a whole (Table 2.19). The proportion
of workers aged 60 years or older in the sector
increased from 7 per cent in 2002 to 17 per cent
in 2012.
Within the sector, the age profiles of individual
occupations vary. Delivery Driver has the youngest
age profile of any occupation. In contrast, Taxi
Driver and Bus Driver occupations have the oldest
age profile with a high percentage of workers aged
60 years or older.
36
Qualification distribution
In the Road Transport sector, only 40 per cent of workers
held qualifications in 2011 but this is 9 percentage
points higher than in 2001 (Table 2.20). All drivers of road
vehicles have to be licenced however and in this sense
they are qualified. It just happens that holding any driving
licence does entitle a person to a qualification recognised
in the Australian Qualifications Framework.
driving taxis has provided jobs for many international
students while studying in Australia. Some of them have
continued driving taxis after graduation because they
have been unable to obtain a job in the field related to
their qualification. The high proportion of Taxi Drivers
holding diploma or higher level qualifications is
indicative of this trend.
While the qualifications profile of Truck Drivers remained
largely unchanged from 2001 to 2011, the profile of other
occupations improved. For instance, the proportion of
Taxi Drivers holding qualifications increased from 27 per
cent to 54 per cent over this period. It is well known that
An increasing proportion of Bus Drivers also hold higher
level qualifications. Combined with the fact that half
of all Bus Drivers in 2012 were 55 years or older, it is
possible some Bus Drivers are retrenched workers from
other industries that have undergone restructuring.
Table 2.20 Qualification distribution of employment in Road Transport
sector by occupation, 15–64 year-olds, Australia, 2001 and 2011 (%)
Occupation
2001
Higher
edu
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
All
2011
Higher
edu
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
All
Road Transport sector
3
2
22
5
69
100
7
6
22
5
60
100
Truck Driver (General)1
1
1
24
5
70
100
1
2
22
4
71
100
Delivery Driver
5
1
22
4
68
100
10
10
21
6
53
100
Taxi Driver3
5
5
12
6
73
100
15
9
25
4
46
100
Bus Driver4
4
1
23
8
63
100
15
9
25
4
46
100
2
Miscellaneous Workers
5
All TLISC sectors
5
3
20
6
66
100
9
11
21
4
55
100
5
4
20
6
66
100
9
8
23
5
55
100
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Education and Work (Cat. no. 6227.0) data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15–64 years. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
1
Includes Tanker Driver and Tow Truck Driver.
2
Includes Courier and Postal Delivery Officer.
3
Includes Chauffeur and Automobile Driver nec.
4
Includes Charter and Tour Bus Driver and Passenger Coach Driver.
5
Includes Driving Instructor, Furniture Removalist, Truck Driver’s Offsider and Armoured Car Escort.
Table 2.21 Distribution of hours worked per week in Road Transport
sector by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Occupation
2002
2012
1-15
16-34
35-49
50+
All
1-15
16-34
35-49
50+
All
Road Transport sector
7
17
42
34
100
7
19
42
32
100
Truck Driver (General)1
3
12
44
41
100
3
13
41
43
100
Delivery Driver
11
21
43
25
100
12
25
43
20
100
Taxi Driver3
9
21
29
40
100
7
25
40
27
100
Bus Driver
100
2
10
26
47
18
100
14
27
45
13
Miscellaneous Workers5
9
19
43
29
100
8
28
36
28
100
All TLISC sectors
7
19
47
27
100
6
19
51
25
100
4
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15 years or older who reported greater than zero actual hours of work in the reference week. Small numbers have relatively large associated
standard errors and should be used with caution.
1
Includes Tanker Driver and Tow Truck Driver.
2
Includes Courier and Postal Delivery Officer.
3
Includes Chauffeur and Automobile Driver nec.
4
Includes Charter and Tour Bus Driver and Passenger Coach Driver.
5
Includes Driving Instructor, Furniture Removalist, Truck Driver’s Offsider and Armoured Car Escort.
2 | Employment trends 2002–12
Hours worked
While the proportion of workers who reported working
more than 34 hours per week is about the same in the
Road sector as in the TLISC workforce as a whole, a
much higher proportion work 50 hours or more per week
(Table 2.21). In 2012 almost a third of the workforce in
the sector worked 50 hours or more. In particular, 43
per cent of Truck Drivers reported working these hours.
A high proportion of Taxi Drivers also reported working
long hours in 2002 but the percentage had declined
significantly by 2012.
40%
of workers held
qualifications
in the Road
Transport sect
or
in 2011.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
38
Table 2.22 Employment in Aviation sector by occupation,
persons, 2002, 2007 and 2012 (‘000s)
Occupation
2002
2007
2012
Growth 2002-12 (%)
Average
Total
annual rate2
Flight Attendant
7
8
10
39.6
3.5
Aeroplane Pilot
8
8
9
15.3
1.5
Aircraft Baggage Handler and Airline Ground Crew
9
7
8
-4.5
0.0
Aircraft Maintenance Engineer (Avionics)
6
7
8
27.4
2.5
Aircraft Maintenance Engineer (Mechanical)
6
6
7
15.4
1.5
Air Traffic Controller
2
2
2
15.0
1.5
Air Transport Professionals nec
2
1
2
-4.5
0.0
Aircraft Maintenance Engineer (Structures)
2
1
2
-4.3
0.0
Helicopter Pilot
1
1
1
-4.6
0.0
Flying Instructor
1
1
1
-3.9
0.1
Aircraft Refueller
1
1
1
16.9
1.6
All
44
42
50
14.3
1.5
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15 years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
2
The calculation of the average annual growth rate is based on annual data from 2002 to 2012.
2.2.3Employment trends—Aviation sector
The Aviation sector is small with thin distribution of
employment across occupations (Table 2.22). The largest
two occupations are those of Flight Attendant and Aeroplane
Pilot, each employing about 10,000 people in 2012.
The changing age profile of Flight Attendants suggests
ageism in the occupation may be on the wane—14 per
cent are aged 55 years or older in 2012 compared to
just 3 per cent in 2002.
Despite some jobs for cabin crew going overseas, the trend
data indicate the demand for Flight Attendants has grown at
above average rate over the last decade. Pressure from the
off-shoring of jobs and the introduction of new generation
aircraft requiring less maintenance has meant jobs in
some types of maintenance work not increasing as much
and only modestly in others.
The structural changes occurring in aircraft
maintenance work in Australia may be affecting the age
profile of Aircraft Maintenance Engineers but this needs
verification with additional data.
Jobs for Aircraft Baggage Handlers and Airline Ground Crew
have stagnated partly as a result of the introduction of self
and online check-in and automation of baggage handling.
Gender distribution
The gender distribution in the Aviation sector is slightly
less skewed than in the other sectors (Table 2.23).
It is however only one occupation—Flight Attendant—
which has relatively large number of female workers.
Qualifications distribution
The qualifications profile of workers in the Aviation
sector also improved from 2001 to 2011 (Table
2.25). The improvement is however relatively less
compared to some other sectors because the
workforce was already highly qualified in 2001 with
69 per cent holding qualifications.
Age distribution
The most improvement is in the qualifications profile
of Flight Attendants. In 2011, 71 per cent held
qualifications compared to 53 per cent in 2001.
Furthermore, the proportion with diploma or higher
level qualifications increased 22 percentage points
over the same period.
The Aviation sector has a relatively younger workforce
(Table 2.24). Only 12 per cent of workers in the sector were
aged 55 years or older in 2012 compared to 22 per cent in
the Transport and Logistics industries as a whole.
The increase in the proportion of Aircraft
Maintenance Engineers holding either certificate I/II
or holding no qualifications could be due to a recent
increase in the recruitment entry level apprentices.
2 | Employment trends 2002–12
Table 2.23 Gender distribution of employment Aviation
sector by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Occupation
2002
2012
Male
Female
All
Male
Female
All
Aviation Transport sector
81
19
100
80
20
100
Aeroplane Pilot1
91
9
100
93
8
100
Flight Attendant
32
68
100
31
69
100
Air Traffic Controller
91
9
100
92
8
100
97
3
100
97
3
100
Aircraft Maintenance Engineer2
Miscellaneous Workers
3
All TLISC sectors
96
3
100
90
10
100
87
13
100
86
14
100
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15 years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
1
Includes Flying Instructor and Helicopter Pilot.
2
Includes Avionics, Mechanical and Structures.
3
Includes Aircraft Baggage Handler and Airline Ground Crew and Aircraft Refueller.
Table 2.24 Age distribution of employment in Aviation
sector by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Occupation
2002
Aviation Transport sector
Aeroplane Pilot
2012
15-24
25-44
45-54
55-59
60+
All
15-24
25-44
45-54
55-59
60+
All
10
62
20
6
3
100
11
54
22
5
7
100
1
6
59
25
7
4
100
7
64
20
3
6
100
Flight Attendant
9
73
15
3
0
100
13
52
21
11
3
100
Air Traffic Controller
5
59
24
7
3
100
7
64
20
3
6
100
Aircraft Maintenance Engineer2
12
60
19
5
4
100
12
50
20
3
14
100
Miscellaneous Workers
3
All TLISC sectors
12
54
21
8
5
100
16
45
29
6
4
100
12
51
23
8
5
100
11
43
24
10
12
100
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15 years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
1
Includes Flying Instructor and Helicopter Pilot.
2
Includes Avionics, Mechanical and Structures.
3
Includes Aircraft Baggage Handler and Airline Ground Crew and Aircraft Refueller.
Table 2.25 Qualification distribution of employment in Aviation sector
by occupation, 15–64 year-olds, Australia, 2001 and 2011 (%)
Occupation
2001
Higher
edu
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
All
2011
Higher
edu
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
All
Aviation Transport sector
13
10
39
7
31
100
12
19
39
6
24
100
Aeroplane Pilot1
30
31
12
12
15
100
24
40
20
8
9
100
Flight Attendant
19
6
15
12
47
100
20
27
21
3
29
100
Air Traffic Controller
30
31
12
12
15
100
24
40
20
8
9
100
Aircraft Maintenance Engineer2
4
5
80
0
11
100
3
6
72
5
15
100
Miscellaneous Workers3
0
2
17
6
75
100
1
2
22
6
68
100
All TLISC sectors
5
4
20
6
66
100
9
8
23
5
55
100
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Education and Work (Cat. no. 6227.0) data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census. Scope: persons aged 15–64
years. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
1
Includes Flying Instructor and Helicopter Pilot.
2
Includes Avionics, Mechanical and Structures.
3
Includes Aircraft Baggage Handler and Airline Ground Crew and Aircraft Refueller.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
40
50,000
workers empl
oyed in the
Aviation sect
or in 2012.
2 | Employment trends 2002–12
Hours worked
are particularly skewed towards working 34 hours or
less although there has been a shift towards working
more hours more recently. Almost one in every five
Pilots and Air Traffic Controllers reported working
50 hours or more, which could be of concern.
The pattern of hours worked changed little in the
Aviation sector from 2002 to 2012 (Table 2.26). Typically
workers in the sector are less likely to be working 50
hours per week or more than in the other sectors. On
the other hand, they are more likely to be working 16–34
hours per week. The hours worked by Flight Attendants
Table 2.26 Distribution of hours worked per week in Aviation
sector by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Occupation
2002
2012
1-15
16-34
35-49
50+
All
1-15
16-34
35-49
50+
All
Aviation Transport sector
5
24
51
19
100
7
24
51
19
100
Aeroplane Pilot1
8
25
49
19
100
9
24
47
20
100
Flight Attendant
6
53
31
11
100
11
41
37
11
100
Air Traffic Controller
8
25
49
19
100
9
24
47
20
100
Aircraft Maintenance Engineer2
1
14
67
18
100
2
14
67
17
100
Miscellaneous Workers3
7
15
45
33
100
5
21
46
28
100
All TLISC sectors
7
19
47
27
100
6
19
51
25
100
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15 years or older who reported greater than zero actual hours of work in the reference week. Small numbers have relatively large associated
standard errors and should be used with caution.
1
Includes Flying Instructor and Helicopter Pilot.
2
Includes Avionics, Mechanical and Structures.
3
Includes Aircraft Baggage Handler and Airline Ground Crew and Aircraft Refueller.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
42
2.2.4 Employment trends—Rail sector
Age distribution
The Train Driver is the largest occupation in the Rail
sector. It employed 12,000 people in 2012. All other
occupations in the sector employed 5,000 or fewer
people (Table 2.27). Employment in most other
occupations seems to have grown strongly albeit
from a low base.
The age profile of the Rail sector workforce generally
mirrors that of the Transport and Logistics industries
as a whole (Table 2.29). Between 2002 and 2012 the
proportion of workers aged 25–44 years in the sector
declined from 53 per cent to 39 per cent. Consequently,
in 2012 there are relatively more young as well as old
workers in the sector than in 2002.
Gender distribution
The percentage of Train Drivers aged 15–24 years
increased from one per cent to 11 per cent from 2002
to 2012; and the percentage aged 55 years or older
increased from 16 per cent to 34 per cent over the same
period. The percentage of Railway Track Workers aged
15–24 years is nearly double that of a decade ago.
Most occupations in the Rail sector have more than
90 per cent male workers (Table 2.28). However the
Miscellaneous Workers occupation group there are
equal numbers of male and female workers.
Table 2.27 Employment in Rail sector by occupation,
persons, 2002, 2007 and 2012 (‘000s)
Occupation
2002
2007
2012
Growth 2002-12 (%)
Average
Total
annual rate2
Train Driver
9
10
12
26.4
2.5
Railway Track Worker
3
5
5
44.8
4.0
Railways Assistant
2
2
3
37.8
3.4
Railway Signal Operator
2
2
2
28.5
2.7
Tram Driver
1
1
2
25.8
2.4
Train Controller
1
1
1
27.9
2.7
Transport Operations Inspector
1
1
1
55.3
4.7
Railway Station Manager
1
1
1
31.6
2.9
Travel Attendants nec
1
1
1
39.7
3.5
Transport Conductor
0
0
0
29.0
2.7
Railway Track Plant Operator
0
0
0
3.2
0.5
Train Examiner
0
0
0
33.3
3.0
All
22
25
29
31.8
2.8
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15 years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
2
The calculation of the average annual growth rate is based on annual data from 2002 to 2012.
2 | Employment trends 2002–12
Table 2.28 Gender distribution of employment in Rail
sector by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Occupation
2002
2012
Male
Female
All
Male
Female
All
Rail Transport sector
89
11
100
88
12
100
Train Driver1
96
4
100
94
6
100
Railway Track Worker
90
10
100
92
8
100
Railway Signal Operator3
95
5
100
93
7
100
Miscellaneous Workers4
50
50
100
56
44
100
All TLISC sectors
87
13
100
86
14
100
2
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15 years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
1
Includes Tram Driver.
2
Includes Railways Assistant and Railways Track Plant Operator.
3
Includes Train Controller.
4
Includes Railway Station Manager, Travel Attendant nec., Train Examiner, Transport Operations Inspector and Transport Conductor.
Table 2.29 Age distribution of employment in Rail sector
by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Occupation
2002
2012
15-24
25-44
45-54
55-59
60+
All
15-24
25-44
45-54
55-59
60+
All
Rail Transport sector
5
53
29
6
7
100
14
39
24
11
13
100
Train Driver
1
50
33
8
8
100
11
35
21
15
19
100
Railway Track Worker2
12
53
24
5
6
100
21
40
25
6
8
100
Railway Signal Operator3
5
59
30
3
3
100
11
38
30
10
11
100
Miscellaneous Workers4
9
57
25
7
3
100
8
50
25
10
7
100
All TLISC sectors
12
51
23
8
5
100
11
43
24
10
12
100
1
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15 years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
1
Includes Tram Driver.
2
Includes Railways Assistant and Railways Track Plant Operator.
3
Includes Train Controller.
4
Includes Railway Station Manager, Travel Attendant nec., Train Examiner, Transport Operations Inspector and Transport Conductor.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
44
Table 2.30 Qualification distribution of employment in Rail sector
by occupation, 15–64 year-olds, Australia, 2001 and 2011 (%)
Occupation
2001
Higher
edu
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
Rail Transport sector
6
2
16
6
Train Driver1
1
0
17
6
Railway Track Worker
All
2011
Higher
edu
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
All
70
100
11
8
26
5
50
100
75
100
15
9
25
4
46
100
9
2
11
2
76
100
3
5
27
4
61
100
Railway Signal Operator3
5
1
23
11
61
100
4
4
29
7
56
100
Miscellaneous Workers4
16
9
15
11
49
100
22
17
20
5
36
100
All TLISC sectors
5
4
20
6
66
100
9
8
23
5
55
100
2
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Education and Work (Cat. no. 6227.0) data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15–64 years. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
1
Includes Tram Driver.
2
Includes Railways Assistant and Railways Track Plant Operator.
3
Includes Train Controller.
4
Includes Railway Station Manager, Travel Attendant nec., Train Examiner, Transport Operations Inspector and Transport Conductor.
Table 2.31 Distribution of hours worked per week in Rail
sector by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Occupation
2002
2012
1-15
16-34
35-49
50+
All
1-15
16-34
35-49
50+
All
Rail Transport sector
6
16
58
20
100
6
18
51
25
100
Train Driver
5
15
60
20
100
2
17
52
29
100
12
15
55
19
100
13
18
49
21
100
100
1
Railway Track Worker2
3
14
61
22
100
0
15
60
25
Miscellaneous Workers4
5
29
47
19
100
6
26
47
22
100
All TLISC sectors
7
19
47
27
100
6
19
51
25
100
Railway Signal Operator
3
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15 years or older who reported greater than zero actual hours of work in the reference week. Small numbers have relatively large associated
standard errors and should be used with caution.
1
Includes Tram Driver.
2
Includes Railways Assistant and Railways Track Plant Operator.
3
Includes Train Controller.
4
Includes Railway Station Manager, Travel Attendant nec.,
Train Examiner, Transport Operations Inspector and Transport Conductor.
2 | Employment trends 2002–12
Qualifications distribution
Hours worked
The qualifications profile of the Rail workforce
improved from 2001 to 2011 with the proportion
with qualifications increasing by 20 percentage
points (Table 2.30).
Overall a few changes have occurred in the pattern of
hours worked in the Rail sector from 2002 to 2012, the most
notable being a 7 percentage points decline in the proportion
working 35–49 hours per week and a 5 percentage points
increase in the proportion working 50 hours or more per week
(Table 2.31). The changes mean the sector is more closely
aligned with the rest of the Transport and Logistics workforce.
The largest shift towards working longer hours was among
Train Drivers.
In some occupations the improvement has been
much more than in others, for instance, the
proportion of Train Drivers holding qualifications
increased by 29 percentage points. Although Train
Drivers may not have held qualifications in 2001,
this does not mean that they were unqualified
or unlicensed to drive trains. It seems that the
skills that Train Drivers require for doing their jobs
have increasingly been codified into qualifications
over the last decade. The proportion of people
in the occupation holding diploma or higher level
qualifications increased from 1 to 24 per cent. This
is most likely to be a supply-side effect. Migrants
with higher education qualifications frequently work
in such jobs because either their qualifications are
not recognised or their English is less than adequate.
They often experience a downward occupational
shift in the early period of their settlement in Australia.
2.2.5 Employment trends
—Maritime and Ports sector
The trend data indicates employment in most occupations
in the Maritime and Ports sector to be stagnant or in decline
(Table 2.32). Waterside Worker is the only occupation in
which employment has grown strongly. This is a shore-based
occupation which is less susceptible to off-shoring but more
exposed to mechanisation on the waterfront.
The demand for ship-based workers has been affected
by increasing imports of seafood to Australia; increasing
conservation of Australia’s own fisheries and the growth in the
aquaculture industry. Also, most cargo and passenger ships
servicing Australian ports are foreign-owned and crewed.
Table 2.32 Employment in Maritime and Ports sector by
occupation, persons, 2002, 2007 and 2012 (‘000s)
Occupation
2002
2007
2012
Growth 2002-12 (%)
Average
Total
annual rate2
Waterside Worker
3
3
4
38.5
3.4
Ship's Master
4
3
4
-4.5
0.0
Deck Hand
4
5
4
4.0
1.0
Ship's Engineer
3
2
2
-4.4
0.0
Ship's Officer
1
1
1
-4.3
0.1
Ship's Surveyor
1
0
1
-3.5
0.1
Marine Transport Professionals nec
0
0
0
-5.3
-0.1
All
15
15
16
5.9
0.7
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15 years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
2
The calculation of the average annual growth rate is based on annual data from 2002 to 2012.
Australian
Australian
transport
transport
andand
logistics
logistics
industry
industry
Forecasts
Forecasts
ofof
labour
labour
and
andskill
skillrequirements
requirements 2013–17
46
Gender distribution
However there has been a shift towards diploma or
higher level qualifications and away from certificate
I/II in this sector. This shift is most evident among
Ship’s Engineers, with the proportion holding diploma
or higher level qualifications increasing from 41 per
cent to 64 per cent.
Almost all workers in the Maritime and Ports sector in
Australia are men and the gender distribution in the sector
has changed little over at least the last decade (Table 2.33).
Age distribution
Deck Hand is the only occupation in which
the proportion without a qualification increased.
However the percentage of Deck Hands who hold
Certificate III or higher level qualifications has also
increased which means fewer of them hold
Certificate I/II qualifications.
While the age profile of the Maritime and Ports workforce
is reasonably close to the age profile of the Transport and
Logistics workforce as a whole, the profile of individual
occupations in the sector tend to vary significantly (Table
2.34). For instance, Waterside Workers and Deck Hands
are relatively younger than professional workers (Ship’s
Engineer, etc.). Almost one in every five professional
worker is aged 60 years or older.
Hours worked
Maritime and Ports sector has the largest proportion
of workers working long hours. In 2012, 35 per cent
reported working 50 hours of more, down from 43
per cent in 2002 (Table 2.36). The long hours of work
is mainly among Ship’s Engineers and Deck Hands,
but a high proportion in the latter occupation also
reported working 34 hours or less.
Qualification distribution
The proportion of workers with qualifications remained
largely unchanged in the Maritime and Ports sector from
2001 to 2011 (Table 2.35). A little less than two-thirds of
the workforce holds qualifications, which is much higher
than among the rest of the TLISC workforce.
Table 2.33 Gender distribution of employment in Maritime and
Ports sector by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Occupation
2002
2012
Male
Female
All
Male
Female
All
Maritime & Ports sector
97
3
100
96
4
100
Waterside Worker
96
4
100
99
1
100
Ship’s Engineer1
97
3
100
96
4
100
Deck Hand
95
5
100
94
6
100
All TLISC sectors
87
13
100
86
14
100
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15 years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
1
Includes Ship’s Master, Ship’s Officer, Ship’s Surveyor and Marine transport Professionals nec.
Table 2.34 Age distribution of employment in Maritime and Ports
sector by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Occupation
2002
15-24
2012
25-44
45-54
55-59
60+
All
15-24
25-44
45-54
60+
All
Maritime & Ports sector
12
55
17
8
8
100
14
43
20
8
14
100
Waterside Worker
36
51
11
0
0
100
30
42
14
5
9
100
Ship’s Engineer1
3
56
20
10
11
100
3
50
21
6
19
100
Deck Hand
27
53
12
6
3
100
24
27
25
16
8
100
All TLISC sectors
12
51
23
8
5
100
11
43
24
10
12
100
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15 years or older. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
1
55-59
Includes Ship’s Master, Ship’s Officer, Ship’s Surveyor and Marine Transport Professionals nec.
2 | Employment trends 2002–12
35%
e and
of the the Maritim
ported
re
Ports workforce
more.
or
s
working 50 hour
Table 2.35 Qualification distribution of employment in Maritime and
Ports sector by occupation, Australia, 2001 and 2011 (%)
Occupation
2001
Higher
edu
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
All
2011
Higher
edu
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
All
Maritime & Ports sector
12
15
21
14
38
100
16
23
20
6
36
100
Waterside Worker
3
2
14
3
78
100
7
4
14
2
74
100
Ship’s Engineer1
18
23
22
15
23
100
24
40
20
8
9
100
Deck Hand
0
2
26
25
47
100
6
6
25
4
59
100
All TLISC sectors
5
4
20
6
66
100
9
8
23
5
55
100
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Education and Work (Cat. no. 6227.0) data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census.
Scope: persons aged 15–64 years. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
1
Includes Ship’s Master, Ship’s Officer, Ship’s Surveyor and Marine Transport Professionals nec.
Table 2.36 Distribution of hours worked per week in Maritime and Ports
sector by occupation, Australia, 15–64 year-olds, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Occupation
2002
1-15
2012
16-34
35-49
50+
All
1-15
16-34
35-49
50+
All
Maritime & Ports sector
7
18
32
43
100
9
18
37
35
100
Waterside Worker
12
28
45
15
100
13
23
44
20
100
Ship’s Engineer1
6
14
32
48
100
7
14
41
38
100
Deck Hand
10
22
19
49
100
10
22
16
52
100
All TLISC sectors
7
19
47
27
100
6
19
51
25
100
Source: CEET estimates based on unpublished ABS Labour Force (Cat. no. 6202.0) quarterly data and customised tables from the ABS 2006 Census. Scope: persons aged 15
years or older who reported greater than zero actual hours of work in the reference week. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with
caution.
1
Includes Ship’s Master, Ship’s Officer, Ship’s Surveyor and Marine Transport Professionals nec.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
48
This chapter provides forecasts of employment by occupation and level of
qualification in various sectors of the Transport and Logistics industries for the
period 2013–17. The forecasts are derived from economy-wide forecasts for
Australia. The demand in these industries is interconnected with demand in
the rest of the economy and, therefore, it is only appropriate that a model that
incorporates the linkages among different sectors of the whole economy is
used for the purpose of forecasting demand for labour in the Transport and
Logistics industries.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
3
Future demand for skilled labour
depends on the future occupational
structure of employment and the
trends in the skills profiles of
each occupation.
Forecasts of
employment
2013–17
The occupational structure of employment depends
on the industrial structure which in turn depends on
a number of factors such as expected aggregate
demand, national and global macroeconomic
developments, prospects in international trade,
industry policy and changes in technology and
household tastes. Growth in population and labour
force participation also affect demand for skilled
labour.
The distribution of demand for labour by industry and
occupation can change even when total demand does
not increase. This is because of constant economic
restructuring as a result of changes in technology and
consumer tastes. Structural adjustments also occur
when economies undergo reform, for instance, the
reduction in tariffs or the introduction of a price on
carbon. Structural adjustment can have an impact on
the mix of skills that are required. The introduction of
new occupational regulations can also affect the types
of skills required for a job. Appropriate higher level
skills have the potential to improve productivity, but
they also assist in a more optimal allocation of labour
through labour mobility.
Exposure to international competition and new
technologies, including the internet, are affecting
the distribution and level of employment across a
wide range of industries, including Transport and
Logistics. The effects vary according to the extent to
which a particular industry is vulnerable to, positively
exposed to, or insulated from global competition.10
Unlike jobs in low-skill manufacturing industries,
jobs in some sectors of the Transport and Logistics
industries are less vulnerable to global competition.
Jobs in aviation and shipping are more vulnerable to
pressures of globalisation than are jobs in logistics and
Warehousing, road and rail sectors. While the general
effect of technological change is known to increase
demand for employees with higher skills, its net effect
on demand for all skill types can be mixed if new
technologies lead to de-skilling in some occupations.
10
See Maglen and Shah (1999); Maglen (2001); and Shah and Burke (2003).
3 | Forecasts of employment 2013–17
While the resources boom might have created additional
demand for workers in the Transport and Logistics
industries, technical change is dampening demand. For
instance, driverless trains and dump trucks have already
reduced the demand for train and truck drivers that one
would have normally expected with the boom. Most
recently there have been reports of completely doing
away with dump trucks at some mine sites (Kerr 2012).
The internet is changing the buying and communication
habits of consumers. It provides a borderless
environment for shopping and has seen to the decline
in the use of physical mail. Maiden (2012) notes that
physical mail volumes delivered by Australia Post have
been falling at 5 per cent per year, and are down by
17 per cent since 2008. At the same time the parcel
delivery business has been rapidly expanding. Another
industry that is growing rapidly is that of internet
shopping for food, groceries and ready-to-eat meals.
The growth of such businesses increases demand for
delivery drivers and workers in logistics. These trends
affect the structure of employment in the Transport and
Logistics industries.
3.1 Forecasts of employment
— all sectors
industries, the pace of technical change and government
policies. Moreover there is a complex interdependency
between all these factors (Meagher, Adams and
Horridge (2000)). Future growth in demand will depend
on assumptions made about the state of these factors
and their implications in future periods. All these factors
are modelled in a computational general equilibrium
framework in the MONASH model, which is maintained
by the Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS), Monash
University. A brief description of MONASH is included
in Box E1 on Page 7.
MONASH considers the ‘business as usual’ case for
the Australian economy when producing economy-wide
forecasts of employment growth by occupation. The
‘business as usual’ case is more than just extrapolation
of past trends. It includes assessment of the future
economy from a number of expert organisations and also
CoPS’ own assessment of changes in technology and
consumer tastes. CEET derives forecasts of employment
in the Transport and Logistics industries from the
forecasts produced by the MONASH model.
The forecasts included in this report are the version
dated June 2012 and released in October 2012.
They incorporate the five-year macro forecasts of the
Australian economy released by Access Economics
in June 2012.
The demand for labour in the economy depends on a
number of factors. It depends on the macroeconomic
state of the domestic economy and that of its major
trading partners. Other factors that influence demand
are capital investment and its distribution across
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
52
Table 3.1
Employment forecasts by major industry group, persons,
Australia, 2012 (actuals), 2013–17 (forecasts) (‘000s)
Occupation
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
Actual
Forecast
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Growth
2012-17 (%)
Average
Total
annual
335
346
349
364
380
392
16.9
3.2
Mining
248
267
280
289
294
306
23.5
4.3
Manufacturing
956
969
982
995
1,011
1,019
6.6
1.3
Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste
153
147
145
147
151
152
-0.7
-0.1
Construction
1,023
1,017
1,064
1,099
1,122
1,169
14.2
2.7
Wholesale Trade
412
449
468
475
476
487
18.2
3.4
Retail Trade
1,217
1,266
1,285
1,299
1,310
1,326
8.9
1.7
Accommodation & Food
766
753
755
759
763
763
-0.4
-0.1
Transport, Postal & Warehousing1
Road Transport
566
569
574
581
588
595
5.1
1.0
228
241
249
255
259
267
17.2
3.2
Rail Transport
45
47
49
49
50
51
13.1
2.5
Water Transport
11
13
12
13
13
13
16.4
3.3
Air & Space Transport
54
56
56
57
58
58
7.2
1.4
Postal & Courier Pick-up & Delivery
87
87
83
83
84
83
-4.8
-1.0
Transport Support Services
61
63
62
62
62
62
1.1
0.2
53
53
53
53
52
52
-1.9
-0.4
Information Media & Telecommunications
Warehousing & Storage
217
219
215
215
217
215
-1.0
-0.2
Financial & Insurance Services
428
434
438
443
451
459
7.2
1.4
Rental, Hiring & Real Estate
208
207
209
208
207
207
-0.6
-0.1
Professional, Scientific & Tech
890
906
923
931
928
935
5.1
1.0
Administrative & Support
401
405
411
417
421
425
5.9
1.2
Public Administration & Safety
730
730
732
748
763
772
5.7
1.1
Education & Training
869
871
892
910
926
944
8.7
1.7
Health Care & Social Assistance
1,345
1,339
1,341
1,366
1,396
1,413
5.0
1.0
Arts & Recreation Services
210
212
211
213
216
217
3.2
0.6
Other Services
458
453
456
462
469
474
3.5
0.7
All industries
11,432
11,560
11,728
11,920
12,087
12,268
7.3
1.4
Source: MONASH economic forecasts (CoPS June 2012). Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
The total includes two sectors, Other Transport and Transport and Postal & Warehousing (not fully defined), which are not included in the table because
they are relatively small but the employment in these sectors is included in the total.
1
Table 3.2
Employment forecasts by major occupation group, persons,
Australia, 2012 (actuals), 2013–17 (forecasts) (‘000s)
Occupation
Actual
Forecast
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Growth
2012-17 (%)
Average
Total
annual
Managers
1,479
1,511
1,541
1,580
1,616
1,652
11.7
2.2
Professionals
2,490
2,530
2,576
2,631
2,679
2,729
9.6
1.8
Technicians & Trades
1,672
1,685
1,719
1,749
1,771
1,804
7.9
1.5
Community & Personal Services
1,101
1,105
1,111
1,127
1,145
1,157
5.0
1.0
Clerical & Administrative
1,711
1,714
1,724
1,740
1,753
1,765
3.2
0.6
Sales
1,057
1,066
1,073
1,075
1,076
1,079
2.1
0.4
Machinery Operators & Drivers
764
779
799
815
828
847
10.9
2.1
Labourers
1,160
1,169
1,185
1,203
1,219
1,236
6.6
1.3
All
11,432
11,560
11,728
11,920
12,087
12,268
7.3
1.4
Source: MONASH economic forecasts (CoPS June 2012). Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
3 | Forecasts of employment 2013–17
Table 3.3
Employment forecasts by qualification, persons,
Australia, 2012 (estimates), 2013–17 (forecasts) (‘000s)
Level of qualification
With qualifications
Estimate
Forecast
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Growth
2012-17 (%)
Average
Total
annual
7,272
7,454
7,668
7,907
8,134
8,375
15.2
2.9
Postgraduate
917
949
983
1,022
1,058
1,096
19.4
3.6
Bachelor
2,236
2,294
2,359
2,430
2,494
2,558
14.4
2.7
Advanced Diploma
506
501
497
494
489
484
-4.3
-0.9
Diploma
736
792
854
923
995
1,071
45.6
7.8
Certificate IV
591
638
690
747
807
872
47.6
8.1
Certificate III
1,842
1,855
1,877
1,899
1,913
1,929
4.8
0.9
Certificate II
364
354
345
336
327
319
-12.4
-2.6
Certificate I
Without qualification
80
71
64
57
51
45
-43.4
-10.8
4,160
4,106
4,060
4,013
3,953
3,894
-6.4
-1.3
7.3
1.4
All
11,432
11,559
11,728
11,920
12,087
12,269
% with qualifications
63.6
64.5
65.4
66.3
67.3
68.3
Source: CEET. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution. The number of people with qualifications in 2012 is an estimate as
the data on this will not be available until the end of year.
3.1.1 Forecasts of employment by industry
Employment is forecast to grow by 1.4 per cent per
year, or 836,000 persons, from 2012 to 2017 (Table
3.1). About 30 per cent of this growth is forecast to be
in Construction and Retail Trade. The highest rate of
employment growth is forecast in Mining. Health Care
and Social Assistance sector is forecast to employ the
highest number of people in 2017–12 per cent of the
total.
In the Transport, Postal and Warehousing sector,
employment is forecast to increase by 29,000 persons
from 2012 to 2017. This translates to an annual rate of
growth of one per cent, well below average across all
industries. While employment is forecast to increase
at above average rate in the Road, Rail, Water and
Air and Space Transport, it is forecast to remain
generally unchanged in Transport Support Services and
Warehousing and Storage but decline slightly in the
Postal and Courier Pick-up and Delivery sector.
3.1.2 Forecasts of employment by occupation
Table 3.2 show the employment forecasts by major
occupation groups. Employment of Managers and
Machinery Operators and Drivers is forecast to increase
at more than 2 per cent per year, which is significantly
higher than average rate. About 29 per cent of total
growth in employment is however forecast to be in
Professional occupations.
3.1.3 Forecasts of employment by qualification
The previous chapter showed evidence of skills
deepening in the Australian workforce over last decade.
The trends in qualifications often vary by occupation.
Current government policies and industry demand
suggest these trends are generally likely to continue.
Models for forecasting demand for qualifications
should, therefore, incorporate these trends. In this
report the qualification trends (skills deepening) from
2001 to 2011 are integrated with the forecasts of
employment by occupation from the MONASH model
to produce forecasts of employment by occupation and
qualification.
Forecasts of qualifications factor in not only the
expected industrial and occupational restructure of
employment but also the trends in skills deepening.
In 2017, 1.1 million more working people are forecast
to hold qualifications than in 2012 (Table 3.3). This
represents an increase of 15.2 per cent. The number of
people without qualifications is forecast to decline by
6.4 per cent. Altogether, 68.3 per cent of the working
population in Australia in 2017 will hold qualifications.
The highest growth in qualifications is forecast at the
Diploma and Certificate IV levels, with the numbers of
people with such qualifications forecast to increase by
about half as much over the next five years. Numbers
of workers with higher education qualifications are
also forecast to grow strongly. In 2017, 43.6 per cent
of workers are forecast to hold higher education
qualifications, 30 per cent of them at the postgraduate
level. Only a modest increase is forecast for the
number of workers holding Certificate IIIs.
Fewer workers are forecast to hold qualifications at the
Advanced Diploma, Certificate II and Certificate I level
in 2017 than in 2012. The number of people holding
Certificate I is forecast to almost halve. These forecasts
are in terms of the highest qualification of a person.
Hence qualifications such as Certificate I and II may
still continue to be completed and be relevant, but as
a pathway to a higher level qualification.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
54
3.2 Forecasts of employment —Transport and Logistics industries
Figures 1-3 show historical and forecasted employment
in the Transport and Logistics industries. While Figure
1 is about aggregate employment in these industries,
Figures 2 and 3 are about employment in the different
sectors in these industries.
to be higher than in the rest of the economy, which is
consistent with the trends over the past decade.
Employment in the Transport and Logistics industries
is forecast to increase by 73,000 persons over the next
five years to 870,000 in 2017 (Table 3.4). The average
annual rate of growth in these industries is forecast
Employment in the two largest sectors—Logistics and Road
Transport—is forecast to increase by 67,000 persons. This
is more than 90 per cent of the total growth in Transport
and Logistics industries.
Table 3.4
The rate of growth is forecast to vary by sector. For
instance, growth in Logistics and Rail Transport is forecast
to be above the industries’ average of 1.8 per cent per year.
Forecasts of employment in Transport and Logistics industries,
persons, Australia, 2012 (actuals), 2013–17 (forecasts) (‘000s)
Sector
Actual
Forecast
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Growth
2012-17 (%)
Average
Total
annual
TLISC sectors
797
803
822
838
852
870
9.2
1.8
Logistics
351
356
366
374
381
391
11.2
2.1
Road Transport
351
353
360
366
371
378
7.8
1.5
Aviation Transport
50
50
51
52
53
53
6.2
1.2
Rail Transport
29
29
29
30
31
31
9.6
1.9
16
16
16
16
16
17
5.6
1.1
Non-TLISC sectors
Maritime & Ports
10,635
10,756
10,906
11,082
11,235
11,398
7.2
1.4
All sectors
11,432
11,559
11,728
11,920
12,087
12,269
7.3
1.4
Source: Derived from MONASH economic forecasts (CoPS June 2012). Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
Figure 1
Employment in Transport and Logistics industries,
persons, Australia, 2002-12 (historical) 2013-17 (forecasts)
EMPLOYMENT ‘000
900
850
800
Historical
750
Forecasts
700
650
600
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
YEAR
Source: MONASH economic forecasts (CoPS June 2012).
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
3 | Forecasts of employment 2013–17
EMPLOYMENT ‘000
Figure 2
Employment in Logistics and Warehousing and Road Transport,
persons, Australia, 2002-12 (historical) 2013-17 (forecasts)
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
Historical
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Forecasts
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
YEAR
Logistics
Source: Derived from MONASH economic forecasts (CoPS June 2012).
Road Transport
EMPLOYMENT ‘000
Figure 3
Employment in Aviation Transport, Rail Transport and Maritime and
Ports, persons, Australia, 2002-12 (historical) 2013-17 (forecasts)
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Historical
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Forecasts
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
YEAR
Source: Derived from MONASH economic forecasts (CoPS June 2012).
Aviation Transport
Rail Transport
Maritime & Ports
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
56
Table 3.5
Forecasts of employment in Transport and Logistics industries by
qualification, persons, Australia, 2012 (estimates), 2013–17 (forecasts) (‘000s)
Occupation
With qualifications
Estimate
Forecast
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Growth
2012-17 (%)
Average
Total
annual
368
381
401
421
441
464
26.1
4.8
Postgraduate
18
19
21
23
25
27
52.5
8.8
Bachelor
61
64
69
73
77
82
32.8
5.8
Advanced diploma
30
30
31
32
34
35
16.7
3.1
Diploma
40
44
50
56
62
69
73.0
11.6
Certificate IV
37
41
47
53
59
67
83.1
12.9
Certificate III
147
148
150
151
152
152
3.3
0.7
Certificate II
29
28
28
28
28
28
-4.2
-0.8
Certificate I
Without qualification
6
6
5
5
4
4
-30.8
-7.1
429
422
421
417
411
406
-5.3
-1.1
9.2
1.8
All
797
803
822
838
852
870
% with qualifications
46.2
47.4
48.8
50.2
51.8
53.3
Source: CEET forecasts. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution. The number of people with qualifications in 2012 is an
estimate as the data on this will not be available until the end of year.
Table 3.6
Forecasts of employment in Transport and Logistics industries by sector and
qualification, persons, Australia, 2012 (estimates), 2017 (forecasts) (‘000s)
Sector
2012
Higher
edu
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
All
2017
Higher
edu
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
All
Logistics
38
31
73
15
194
351
51
43
87
14
195
391
Road Transport
28
24
82
15
202
351
41
43
101
13
180
378
Aviation
7
9
19
3
13
50
7
10
21
2
13
53
Rail
4
2
7
1
13
29
6
3
8
1
12
31
Maritime & Ports
3
4
3
1
6
16
3
4
3
1
6
17
All TLISC sectors
79
70
184
35
429
797
109
104
220
32
406
870
Source: CEET forecasts. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution. The number of people with qualifications in 2012 is an
estimate as the data on this will not be available until the end of year.
The number of people with qualifications in the Transport
and Logistics industries is forecast to increase faster
than total employment (Table 3.5). In 2017, 96,000 more
workers in these industries will have qualifications than did
in 2012. Consequently, the proportion with qualifications
will increase from 46.2 per cent in 2012 to 53.3 per cent,
which is still significantly lower proportion than in the
workforce as a whole.
Just less than a quarter of all qualifications people hold in
2017 will be at the higher education level and the rest at
VET level. More than half the total increase in qualifications
is forecast at the Diploma and Certificate IV levels, which
is consistent with the general trends.
Workers with Certificate I level qualifications are
forecast to be fewer in number in 2017 than 2012
but the number with Certificate II is forecast to
remain largely unchanged.
The increase in the number of people with
qualifications will vary by sector (Table 3.6). The
increase in the Logistics sector will be 39,000, which
proportionately is higher than in any other sector.
Only about half the workforce in the two largest
sectors will hold qualifications in 2017. In all other
sectors the proportion with qualifications will range
from 61 per cent in Rail to 76 per cent in Aviation.
3 | Forecasts of employment 2013–17
3.2.1 Forecasts of employment—Logistics and Warehousing
While employment in most occupations in the Logistics
sector is forecast to increase by more than 10 per cent
over the next five years, the demand for Stock Clerks
and Fleet Managers is forecast to increase by relatively
smaller numbers (Table 3.7).
Table 3.7
The qualifications profile of the sector is expected to
change but these changes are expected to vary by
occupation. Minimal change is expected in the profiles for
Forklift Driver and Miscellaneous Workers. On the other
hand the percentage of Stock Clerks without a qualification
is forecast to decline by 10 percentage points.
Forecasts of employment in Logistics sector by qualification,
persons, Australia, 2012 (estimates), 2017 (forecasts) (‘000s)
Occupation
2012
Higher
edu
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
All
2017
Higher
edu
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
All
Storeperson
9
7
19
5
79
119
14
8
25
6
83
135
Forklift Driver
2
2
15
4
43
66
3
2
18
4
48
74
Stock Clerk1
10
10
14
3
33
71
14
15
16
2
27
75
Supply & Distribution Manager2
11
8
14
2
18
53
15
13
15
1
16
60
Fleet Manager3
5
3
5
1
7
21
4
3
7
0
6
21
1
1
5
1
14
22
1
2
6
1
15
25
All (‘000)
38
31
73
15
194
351
51
43
87
14
195
391
All (%)
11
9
21
4
55
100
13
11
22
4
50
100
Miscellaneous Workers
4
Source: CEET. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution. The number of people with qualifications
in 2012 is an estimate as the data on this will not be available until the end of year. The numbers in the table have been rounded to the nearest thousand.
1
Includes Postal Sorting Officer, Despatching and Receiving Clerk, Import-Export Clerk, Radio Despatcher.
2
Includes Post Office Manager and Warehouse Administrator.
3
Includes Transport Company Manager.
4
Includes Crane, Hoist and Lift operator, Crane Chaser and Freight Handler (Road and Rail).
3.2.2 Forecasts of employment—Road Transport
In the Road Transport sector, Taxi Driver and Bus Driver
numbers are forecast to increase by more than 10 per
cent over the next five years (Table 3.8). Only minimal
increase is forecast in Delivery Driver numbers.
Table 3.8
The qualifications profile of the sector is expected
to change substantially with the number of workers
without qualifications forecast to decline by 10
percentage points. The profile for Delivery Drivers is
expected to improve the most—15 percentage point
decline in the number without qualifications.
Forecasts of employment in Road Transport sector by qualification,
persons, Australia, 2012 (estimates), 2017 (forecasts) (‘000s)
Occupation
2012
Higher
edu
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
All
2017
Higher
edu
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
All
4
5
44
6
113
171
6
6
61
7
107
187
Delivery Driver2
5
10
18
4
51
88
7
24
17
3
39
90
Taxi Driver
3
9
4
8
2
16
39
13
6
9
1
13
43
Bus Driver4
9
4
9
2
16
39
13
6
10
1
13
44
Truck Driver (General)
1
1
2
3
1
7
14
2
2
4
0
7
14
All (‘000)
28
24
82
15
202
351
41
43
101
13
180
378
All (%)
8
7
23
4
58
100
11
11
27
4
48
100
Miscellaneous Workers
5
Source: CEET. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
The numbers in the table have been rounded to the nearest thousand.
1
Includes Tanker Driver and Tow Truck Driver.
2
Includes Courier and Postal Delivery Officer.
3
Includes Chauffeur and Automobile Driver nec.
4
Includes Charter and Tour Bus Driver and Passenger Coach Driver.
5
Includes Driving Instructor, Furniture Removalist, Truck Driver’s Offsider and Armoured Car Escort.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
58
3.2.3 Forecasts of employment
—Aviation sector
Only a small increase in employment is forecast in the
Aviation sector. More than half the increase will be for
Aircraft Maintenance Engineers.
The qualifications profile of the sector is expected to
improve by a small amount. Slightly more workers
will hold qualifications and more of them will be at
higher levels.
3.2.4 Forecasts of employment
—Rail sector
Employment in the Rail sector is forecast to increase
by just less than 3,000 persons. Most of this increase
will be for Train Drivers.
The percentage of people in the sector holding
qualifications is forecast to increase by 8 percentage
points. Among Train Drivers, 31 per cent are forecast
to hold higher education qualifications in 2017
3,000
compared to the estimate of 23 per cent in 2012.
This does not necessarily mean that there is a
demand for train drivers who have higher education
qualifications. What it is reflecting is the historical
trend of people with higher education qualifications
offering to work as trend drivers. In other words it is
a supply-side effect, as discussed in chapter 2.
3.2.5 Forecasts of employment
—Maritime and Ports sector
Most of the small growth in employment forecast
in the Maritime and Ports sector is expected to
be Waterside Workers.
A small overall improvement is forecast in the
qualifications profile in the sector. While about 93
per cent of Ship’s Engineers are expected to hold
qualifications in 2017, the percentage of Waterside
Workers with qualifications is expected to be only
30 per cent.
person increase is
forecasted in the Rail
sector by 2017.
3 | Forecasts of employment 2013–17
Table 3.9
Forecasts of employment in Aviation sector by qualification,
persons, Australia, 2012 (estimates), 2017 (forecasts) (‘000s)
Occupation
2012
Higher
edu
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
All
2017
Higher
edu
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
All
1
3
4
2
1
1
11
3
5
2
0
1
10
Flight Attendant
2
3
2
0
3
10
2
3
2
0
2
10
3
Aeroplane Pilot
Air Traffic Controller
1
1
1
0
0
3
1
2
1
0
0
Aircraft Maintenance Engineer2
1
1
12
1
3
18
1
1
15
1
3
20
Miscellaneous Workers3
0
0
2
0
5
8
0
0
2
0
6
9
All (‘000)
7
9
19
3
13
50
7
10
21
2
13
53
All (%)
13
18
37
5
26
100
14
19
39
4
24
100
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
All
Source: CEET. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
1
Includes Flying Instructor and Helicopter Pilot.
2
Includes Avionics, Mechanical and Structures.
3
Includes Aircraft Baggage Handler and Airline Ground Crew and Aircraft Refueller.
Table 3.10 Forecasts of employment in Rail sector by qualification,
persons, Australia, 2012 (estimates), 2017 (forecasts) (‘000s)
Occupation
Train Driver
1
Railway Track Worker2
Railway Signal Operator
Miscellaneous Workers4
3
2012
Higher
edu
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
All
2017
Higher
edu
3
1
3
1
5
13
5
2
3
1
5
15
0
0
2
0
5
8
0
1
3
0
4
8
0
0
1
0
2
4
0
0
1
0
2
4
1
1
1
0
1
4
1
1
1
0
1
4
All (‘000)
4
2
7
1
13
29
6
3
8
1
12
31
All (%)
15
9
25
5
47
100
20
11
26
4
39
100
Source: CEET. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
The numbers in the table have been rounded to the nearest thousand.
1
Includes Tram Driver.
2
Includes Railways Assistant and Railways Track Plant Operator.
3
Includes Train Controller.
4
Includes Railway Station Manager, Travel Attendant nec., Train Examiner, Transport Operations Inspector and Transport Conductor.
Table 3.11 Forecasts of employment in Maritime and Ports sector by qualification,
persons, Australia, 2012 (estimates), 2017 (forecasts) (‘000s)
Occupation
2012
Higher
edu
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
All
2017
Higher
edu
Ad Dip/
Dip
Cert
III/IV
Cert
I/II
No
qual
All
Waterside Worker
0
0
0
0
Ship’s Engineer1
2
3
1
1
3
4
0
0
0
0
3
4
1
8
2
4
1
0
1
8
Deck Hand
0
0
1
0
2
4
0
1
1
0
2
4
All (‘000)
3
4
3
1
6
16
3
4
3
1
6
17
All (%)
17
22
17
6
38
100
18
27
16
4
35
100
Source: CEET. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
The numbers in the table have been rounded to the nearest thousand.
1
Includes Ship’s Master, Ship’s Officer, Ship’s Surveyor and Marine Transport Professionals nec.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
60
This chapter provides estimates of job openings for new entrants in Transport
and Logistics industries over the period 2013–17 resulting from:
growth
turnover of workers.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
Job openings
for new
entrants,
2013–17
v
4
The previous chapter provided
forecasts of employment growth in
the Transport and Logistics industries.
New jobs from growth in an
occupation account for only a portion
of all jobs that are expected to be
available during the forecast period.
Many workers will leave jobs for a variety of reasons,
such as retirement, ill-health or death. They also
leave to work in another occupation, more so from
some occupations than others. These departures will
create additional opportunities for workers to enter
each occupation. Even if employment is falling in an
occupation, workers who leave create demand or job
opportunities for new workers. The pattern of turnover
varies by occupation. While in some occupations
(e.g. airline pilots) the main reasons for turnover are
events such as retirement, ill-health or death, in other
occupations (e.g. railways assistant) the main reason is
net outflows to other occupations. In many occupations,
the number of workers retiring will rise in coming years
due to the ageing of Australia’s baby boomers.
These replacement needs, when added to new jobs,
create a more complete picture of job openings. While
projections of job growth and decline provide the best
picture of how occupational employment is expected to
change, job openings provide a better description of the
labour market that new entrants will face. Projections of
job openings also serve as an estimate of the minimum
number of workers who will need to be trained for
occupations that require pre-employment education
or training (Lockard and Wolf 2012).
4.1 Job openings for new entrants—all sectors
The starting point for the calculations of job openings
for new entrants is the forecasts of employment
growth in Chapter 3. Any anticipated industrial and
occupational structural changes in the economy are
factored into these forecasts.
The measurement of turnover or replacement needs
is complex because of the continuous movement of
workers into and out of occupations. Although there
are a number of measures for turnover, the one adopted
in this report is net replacement (see Shah and Burke
2001; Bureau of Labor Statistics 2006; Shah and Long
2010; Shah 2010). Net replacement when combined
with growth in an occupation, best represents the
job openings for new entrants to the occupation. The
estimates for net replacement cited in this report are
derived using a cohort-component method which is
based on the patterns of past demographic changes
in each occupation.
4 | JOB OPENINGS FOR ENTRANTS 2013–17
The CEET model for net replacement combines time
series methods to project future net replacement needs.
Although the model does make corrections for changes
in the future size of the labour force by age and sex,
it is largely based on past trends. Therefore projected
replacement needs may be fewer should future turnover
trends change, for instance, if older Australians
choose or forced to delay their retirement over the
next five years.
skill occupations than high-skill occupations.
The highest net replacement rate is for sales workers
who are generally young people, often studying, and
who stay in these jobs for relatively short periods.
About 2.2 million job openings for new entrants are
forecast from 2013 to 2017 (Table 4.2). The number
each year varies between 420,000 and 443,000. The
number of job openings not only depends on the growth
and net replacement rates in the occupation but also
on the current level of employment in it. For instance,
the highest job openings are for Professionals which
employed 2.7 million workers in 2012, the highest
number in all occupation groups. On the other hand,
the high number of job openings for Sales workers is
more because of the very high net replacement rate
than any other factor.
Table 4.1 shows the employment growth rates and the
net replacement rates for major occupation groups.11
The employment growth rates are brought forward
from Table 3.2. The table highlights the importance of
replacement needs relative to employment growth in
estimating new entrants to an occupation. It also shows
that net replacement needs are generally higher for low-
Table 4.1
Employment growth and net replacement rates
by major occupation group, Australia, 2013–17 (%)
Major occupation group
Employment growth rate
Net replacement rate
Managers
2.2
1.8
Professionals
1.8
1.4
Technicians & Tradespersons
1.5
1.6
Community & Personal Services Workers
1.0
2.3
Clerical & Administrative Workers
0.6
1.8
Sales Workers
0.4
5.0
Machinery Operators & Drivers
2.1
1.7
Labourers
1.3
2.8
All
1.4
2.1
Source: MONASH economic forecasts (CoPS June 2012) (growth) and CEET (net replacement rates).
Table 4.2
Forecasts of job openings for new entrants by
major occupation group, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000s)
Major occupation group
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total
Managers
66
60
67
66
65
324
Professionals
84
80
87
80
81
412
Technicians & tradespersons
43
61
57
49
62
272
Community & personal services workers
41
33
40
41
38
192
Clerical & administrative workers
51
47
50
48
48
243
Sales workers
63
62
60
59
61
305
Machinery operators and drivers
27
33
30
26
33
150
Labourers
49
50
52
51
53
255
All
423
426
443
420
441
2,154
Source: CEET.
11
The estimates of net replacement rates may vary according the level of aggregation in the original input data. The estimates in Table 4.1 were calculated at the 3-digit
ANZSCO level and then aggregated up.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
64
4.2 Job openings for new entrants—Transport and Logistics industries
The net replacement rate for the Transport and Logistics
industries is lower than for all other industries (Table
4.3). The impact of the low rate will be lower future
training needs in these industries. The net replacement
rates for the Logistics and Aviation sectors are much
lower than for other sectors, reflecting the relatively
younger workforce in these two sectors. The net
replacement rates for the other sectors are not very
different to the average rate for the whole workforce. In
the table, employment growth rates are brought forward
from Table 3.4.
In the five years to 2017, 151,000 job openings for new
entrants are forecast in the Transport and Logistics
industries (Table 4.4). This averages to about 30,000
openings per year. Not surprisingly the highest numbers
of openings are expected in the two largest sectors.
Almost 90 per cent of all openings are forecast in the
Logistics and Road Transport sectors.
4.2.1 Job openings for new entrants
—Logistics and Warehousing sector
Table 4.5 shows the forecasts of job openings for
new entrants for the five years to 2017 in the main
occupations in the Logistics sector. The highest number
of openings is forecast for Storepersons and least for
Fleet Managers.
4.2.2 Job openings for new entrants
—Road Transport sector
About 44 per cent of all job openings in Road transport
sector are expected for Truck Drivers (Table 4.6). Most of the
rest of the openings are expected to be for Delivery Drivers,
Taxi Drivers and Bus Drivers in about equal numbers.
4.2.3 Job openings for new entrants
—Aviation sector
Just less than half the job openings for new entrants
in the Aviation sector are expected for Aircraft Maintenance
Engineers with the least number of openings for Aircraft
Traffic Controllers (Table 4.7).
4.2.4 Job openings for new entrants
—Rail sector
About two-thirds of all job openings for new entrants in
the Rail sector are expected for Train Drivers Table 4.8).
4.2.5 Job openings for new entrants
—Maritime and Ports sector
About half of all job openings for new entrants in the
Maritime and Ports sector will be Waterside Workers
(Table 4.9).
4 | JOB OPENINGS FOR ENTRANTS 2013–17
Table 4.3
Employment growth and net replacement rates in
Transport and Logistics industries, Australia, 2013–17 (%)
Sector
Employment growth rate
Net replacement rate
TLISC sectors
1.8
1.7
Logistics
2.1
1.5
Road Transport
1.5
2.0
Aviation Transport
1.2
1.4
Rail Transport
1.9
2.1
Maritime & Ports
1.1
2.0
Non-TLISC sectors
1.4
2.1
All sectors
1.4
2.1
Source: MONASH economic forecasts (CoPS June 2012) (growth) and CEET (net replacement rates).
Table 4.4
Forecasts of job openings for new entrants in Transport and Logistics industries,
Australia, 2013–17 (‘000s)
Sector
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total
TLISC sectors
26.3
32.9
30.8
28.2
33.4
151.5
Logistics
11.3
14.6
13.6
12.2
14.5
66.2
Road Transport
12.1
14.7
13.5
12.5
15.2
68.1
Aviation Transport
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.6
1.6
7.8
Rail Transport
1.0
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.6
6.5
Maritime & Ports
0.6
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.6
3.0
Non-TLISC sectors
396.8
393.4
412.5
392.1
407.3
2002.1
All sectors
423.0
426.3
443.3
420.3
440.7
2,153.6
Source: CEET.
Table 4.5
Forecasts of job openings for new entrants in Logistics
and Warehousing sector, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000s)
Occupation
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total
Storeperson
3.6
5.5
5.0
4.5
5.4
24.0
Forklift Driver
1.6
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.9
12.4
Stock Clerk
2.1
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.7
9.2
Supply & Distribution Manager2
2.2
2.5
2.3
2.0
2.4
11.3
Fleet Manager3
0.3
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
3.4
Miscellaneous Workers
1.5
1.2
1.1
0.9
1.2
5.9
All
11.3
14.6
13.6
12.2
14.5
66.2
1
4
Source: CEET.
1
Includes Postal Sorting Officer, Despatching and Receiving Clerk, Import-Export Clerk, Radio Despatcher.
2
Includes Post Office Manager and Warehouse Administrator.
3
Includes Transport Company Manager.
4
Includes Crane, Hoist and Lift operator, Crane Chaser and Freight Handler (Road and Rail).
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
66
Table 4.6
Forecasts of job openings for new entrants
in Road Transport sector, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000s)
Occupation
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total
Truck Driver (General)1
5.2
7.0
5.9
5.1
6.6
29.8
Delivery Driver2
2.9
2.0
2.5
2.7
2.3
12.4
3
Taxi Driver
1.8
2.7
2.3
2.1
2.9
11.8
Bus Driver4
1.8
2.7
2.4
2.2
2.9
12.0
Miscellaneous Workers5
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.5
2.1
All
12.1
14.7
13.5
12.5
15.2
68.1
Source: CEET.
1
Includes Tanker Driver and Tow Truck Driver.
2
Includes Courier and Postal Delivery Officer.
3
Includes Chauffeur and Automobile Driver nec.
4
Includes Charter and Tour Bus Driver and Passenger Coach Driver.
5
Includes Driving Instructor, Furniture Removalist, Truck Driver’s Offsider and Armoured Car Escort.
Table 4.7
Forecasts of job openings for new entrants
in Aviation sector, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000s)
Occupation
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total
Aeroplane Pilot1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.2
1.3
Flight Attendant
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.8
Air Traffic Controller
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.4
Aircraft Maintenance Engineer2
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.7
3.6
Miscellaneous Workers3
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.4
1.5
All
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.6
1.6
7.8
Source: CEET.
1
Includes Flying Instructor and Helicopter Pilot.
2
Includes Avionics, Mechanical and Structures.
3
Includes Aircraft Baggage Handler and Airline Ground Crew and Aircraft Refueller.
4 | JOB OPENINGS FOR ENTRANTS 2013–17
Table 4.8
Forecasts of job openings for new entrants
in Rail sector, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000s)
Occupation
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total
Train Driver1
0.6
0.9
0.8
0.7
1.0
4.1
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
1.2
Railway Signal Operator
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.8
Miscellaneous Workers4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.4
All
1.0
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.6
6.5
Total
Railway Track Worker2
3
Source: CEET.
1
Includes Tram Driver.
2
Includes Railways Assistant and Railways Track Plant Operator.
3
Includes Train Controller.
4
Includes Railway Station Manager, Travel Attendant nec., Train Examiner, Transport Operations Inspector and Transport Conductor.
Table 4.9
Forecasts of job openings for new entrants in
Maritime and Ports sector, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000s)
Occupation
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Waterside Worker
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
1.4
Ship’s Engineer1
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.2
1.0
Deck Hand
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.6
All
0.6
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.6
3.0
Source: CEET.
1
Includes Ship’s Master, Ship’s Officer, Ship’s Surveyor and Marine Transport Professionals nec.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
68
This chapter provides estimates of training needs in the workforce, for the period
2013–17, as a result of:
the changing qualifications profile
employment growth
turnover of workers.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
Training needs
2013–17
v
5
The estimates provide indications of
the minimum training needs, in terms
of the number of qualifications needing
to be completed, to ensure industries’
demand for skilled workers, as forecast
in the previous chapter, is met.
Additional demand for training may also arise as
a result of workers undertaking qualifications at
the same level or lower than they currently hold
(skills broadening) but these are not included in the
estimates below.
Chapter 3 provided forecasts of employment by
qualifications in the Transport and Logistics industries.
It showed that not only is employment forecast to
grow in these industries but the qualifications profile
of the workforce is also expected to shift upwards,
with more workers holding qualifications and at
increasingly higher levels.
Part of the future demand for skilled labour will be
met by skilled workers who are currently working and
who will continue to do so in the future. However not
all workers employed currently will be available in
the next period because of turnover.
The qualifications profile of an occupation will
change with the entry of new people and the exit of
others, some of whom will hold qualifications and
others will not. In some instances the number of
new entrants with qualifications will be insufficient
to achieve the qualifications profile forecast for the
occupation and continuing workers will need to
acquire new qualifications to make up the shortfall.
Some continuing workers who already have a
qualification may up-skill and others who do not have
a qualification may acquire their first qualification.
5.1 Training needs—all sectors
The calculations of training needs begin with the
forecasts of growth and the changing qualifications
profile provided in Chapter 3. Industrial and
occupational structural changes and skills deepening
are all factored into these forecasts.
Table 5.1 shows the training needs by qualification for
the period 2013–17. The estimates are made at the
occupation level and then aggregated. They include
only the need for qualified workers.12 The derivation of
these estimates assumes that in each occupation:
®®
®®
12
the qualifications profile of new entrants will reflect
the average qualifications profile of the youngest
workers in the occupation over the past few years
the qualifications profile of those leaving will reflect
the qualifications profile of the oldest workers in the
occupation over the past few years.
Job openings will also exist for workers without qualifications, but these
are additional to what is presented in this chapter.
5 | training needs 2013–17
The table shows a minimum of about 2.4 million
people will need to be trained from 2013–17 to meet
industry demand for skilled workers. This amounts
to at least 482,000 completed qualifications per year.
Training needs are projected to generally increase over
time except 2016 when there is a slight decline.
About 38.3 per cent of all demand is projected
for higher education qualifications and almost all demand
for VET qualifications is at diploma or Certificate III/IV level.
The estimates are for the minimum number of qualifications
to be completed. This is because some people may
complete a lower level qualification as a pathway to a
higher qualification in the same year. Therefore, to the
extent that some people complete multiple qualifications,
the estimates provided in this chapter will underestimate
the total demand for qualifications. The number of people
who complete multiple qualifications in any one year is
unlikely to be very large though. Non-accredited training,
such as product- or firm-specific training, that continuing
workers undertake is outside the scope of this report.
Slightly more than half of this demand for trained
workers will be met by new entrants with qualifications
and the rest by continuing workers up-skilling. While
new entrants will meet significantly more of the
demand for workers with Bachelor and Certificate
I-III level qualifications, the demand for postgraduate,
diplomas and Certificate IV qualifications will largely
be met by continuing workers up-skilling.
Table 5.1
Training needs by qualification, persons, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000s)
Level of qualification
2013–17
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total
Average
annual
15
15
15
14
17
76
15
New Entrants
Postgraduate
Bachelor
85
86
95
89
94
449
90
Advanced diploma
9
8
8
8
8
41
8
Diploma
30
29
33
34
36
161
32
Certificate IV
21
22
24
25
27
119
24
Certificate III
56
64
63
59
65
307
61
Certificate II
15
15
14
12
14
70
14
Certificate I
2
2
2
2
2
10
2
Total
232
239
255
243
263
1232
246
Continuing workers
Postgraduate
42
46
51
50
47
235
47
Bachelor
29
31
33
35
33
162
32
Advanced diploma
13
13
12
12
13
63
13
Diploma
53
60
62
62
61
298
60
Certificate IV
39
44
49
51
54
237
47
Certificate III
31
31
34
33
32
161
32
Certificate II
4
4
4
4
3
18
4
Certificate I
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total
211
229
245
248
244
1176
235
57
61
66
64
64
311
62
Total
Postgraduate
Bachelor
114
117
128
124
127
611
122
Advanced diploma
22
20
21
20
21
104
21
Diploma
83
88
95
96
98
459
92
Certificate IV
60
65
73
76
82
356
71
Certificate III
86
96
97
93
97
469
94
Certificate II
19
18
18
16
17
88
18
Certificate I
3
2
2
2
2
10
2
Total
443
468
499
491
507
2408
482
Source: CEET.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
72
About 40 per cent of all training needs are for
Managers and Professionals (Table 5.2). These two
groups also have the highest need for workers with
higher education qualifications. More than 10 per
cent of higher education needs are for Clerical and
Administrative occupations.
Less than half of all needs will be met by new entrants
with qualifications and the rest will be met by continuing
workers up-skilling.
About three-quarters of training needs in the Transport
and Logistics industries will be VET qualifications, 57
per cent of which will be at Certificate III/IV level. The
demand for Certificate I/II qualifications will be largely
met by new entrants.
Only about 5 per cent of training needs are for
Machinery Operators and Drivers, which is less than
for Labourers. Even though the net replacement
rate for Sales workers is very high, this does not
translate into high training needs because only a small
proportion hold qualifications.
5.2.1 Training needs
—Logistics and Warehousing
The minimum training needs in the Logistics sector
for the five years to 2017 are estimated to be 56,000
people with qualifications (Table 5.4). The needs for
workers with Certificate III/IV qualifications will be
highest. At the higher education and diploma levels,
needs are projected to be about 15,000 persons each.
Almost 80 per cent of all training needs will be for three
occupations: Storeperson, Stock Clerk and Supply and
Distribution Manager.
5.2 Training needs—Transport
and Logistics industries
Table 5.3 shows that a minimum of about 151,000
workers with qualifications will be needed in the
Transport and Logistics industries in the five years to
2017. Training needs will generally increase over time.
Table 5.2
Training needs by occupation and qualification, persons, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000s)
Occupation group
Postgrad
Bachelor
Ad Dip
Diploma
Cert IV
Cert III
Cert II
Cert I
Total
Managers
49
93
20
90
47
53
6
1
359
Professionals
154
282
10
88
39
24
3
1
601
Technicians & Trades
14
56
17
64
105
130
23
3
411
Community & Personal Services
10
33
10
57
44
74
8
1
237
Clerical & Administrative
34
63
12
75
44
63
14
1
306
Sales
24
43
26
31
21
41
11
2
199
Machinery Operators & Drivers
7
19
5
18
30
31
12
0
122
Labourers
18
22
6
37
26
52
11
2
173
All
311
611
104
459
356
469
88
10
2,408
Source: CEET.
5 | training needs 2013–17
Table 5.3
Training needs in Transport and Logistics industries
by qualification, persons, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000s)
Level of qualification
2013–17
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total
Average
annual
2.9
4.3
4.1
3.8
5.1
20.3
4.1
New Entrants
Higher education
Advanced diploma/diploma
2.2
2.8
3.0
3.0
3.6
14.6
2.9
Certificate III/IV
4.7
6.1
5.7
5.2
6.3
27.9
5.6
Certificate I/II
0.9
1.1
1.0
0.9
1.0
5.0
1.0
Total
10.7
14.4
13.8
12.9
16.1
67.7
13.5
3.3
3.2
3.7
4.1
3.7
17.9
3.6
Continuing workers
Higher education
Advanced diploma/diploma
4.4
5.3
5.7
6.1
6.8
28.3
5.7
Certificate III/IV
5.5
6.6
7.3
8.0
8.8
36.1
7.2
Certificate I/II
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
1.3
0.3
Total
13.5
15.3
16.9
18.4
19.5
83.7
16.7
Total
Higher education
6.2
7.5
7.8
7.9
8.8
38.2
7.6
Advanced diploma/diploma
6.6
8.1
8.6
9.1
10.4
42.9
8.6
Certificate III/IV
10.2
12.7
12.9
13.1
15.1
64.1
12.8
Certificate I/II
1.2
1.4
1.3
1.1
1.3
6.3
1.3
Total
24.2
29.7
30.7
31.3
35.6
151.4
30.3
Source: CEET.
Table 5.4
Training needs in Logistics and Warehousing sector
by qualification, persons, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000s)
Occupation
Higher Education
Ad Dip/Dip
Cert III/IV
Cert I/II
All
Storeperson
5.0
2.0
7.2
1.3
15.5
Forklift Driver
1.3
0.2
3.7
0.7
5.9
Stock Clerk
4.3
6.2
3.2
0.5
14.2
Supply & Distribution Manager2
4.2
5.3
4.1
0.2
13.9
Fleet Manager3
0.6
0.7
1.8
0.1
3.2
Miscellaneous Workers
0.4
0.7
1.5
0.6
3.2
All (‘000)
15.8
15.2
21.4
3.4
55.8
All (%)
28.3
27.2
38.3
6.1
100.0
1
4
Source: CEET. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution. The number of people with qualifications
in 2012 is an estimate as the data on this will not be available until the end of year. The numbers in the table have been rounded to the nearest thousand.
1
Includes Postal Sorting Officer, Despatching and Receiving Clerk, Import-Export Clerk, Radio Despatcher.
2
Includes Post Office Manager and Warehouse Administrator.
3
Includes Transport Company Manager.
4
Includes Crane, Hoist and Lift operator, Crane Chaser and Freight Handler (Road and Rail).
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
74
5.2.2 Training needs—Road Transport
5.2.4 Training needs—Rail
Despite employing a similar number of people as
the Logistics sector, the training needs in the Road
Transport sector are significantly higher. This is partly
because the sector has a workforce with an older age
profile than the Logistics sector, which means that
replacement needs are likely to be higher, all else equal.
Table 5.5 shows that 78,000 people with qualifications
will be needed in the sector in the next five years. About
two-thirds of the training needs will be for Truck Drivers
and Delivery Drivers. Demand will be highest for people
with Certificate III/IV level qualifications.
Training needs for qualified workers in the Rail sector
are projected to be about 6,500 over the next five
years (Table 5.7). Two-thirds of these needs will be
for Train and Tram Drivers. The needs for workers
with higher education qualifications in the Train
Drivers occupation is high and is a result of recent
trends in the qualifications profile of workers in this
occupation. As discussed earlier, the trends reflect
supply-side factors and do not necessarily reflect
the qualifications required to work in the occupation.
5.2.5 Training needs—Maritime and Ports
5.2.3 Training needs—Aviation
Training needs in the Aviation sector are projected to
be about 9,000 people with qualifications from 2013
to 2017 (Table 5.6). Two-thirds of these needs will be
in just two occupations: Aeroplane Pilot and Aircraft
Maintenance Engineer. About 140 Air Traffic Controllers
with qualifications will be needed each year. The need
for Aeroplane Pilots and Air Traffic Controllers will
be mainly at the Diploma or higher level. In contrast,
the need for Aircraft Maintenance Engineers will be
predominantly at Certificate III/IV levels.
Table 5.5
Training needs in the Maritime and Ports sector
total 2,600 people with qualifications over the next
five years, with more than half of these for Ship’s
Engineer occupations (Table 5.8). Despite Waterside
Workers comprising a substantial proportion of the
sector’s workforce, training needs for the occupation
are not that high because most workers in the
occupation do not hold qualifications. Overall most
qualification needs in the sector are for Diploma
or higher level qualifications.
Training needs in Road Transport sector by
qualification, persons, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000s)
Occupation
Higher Education
Ad Dip/Dip
Cert III/IV
Cert I/II
All
Truck Driver (General)1
3.1
1.1
24.4
1.4
30.0
Delivery Driver2
1.8
15.4
2.8
0.5
20.5
3
Taxi Driver
6.0
2.7
3.6
0.1
12.4
Bus Driver4
6.1
2.8
3.7
0.1
12.6
Miscellaneous Workers
0.4
0.5
1.2
0.1
2.2
All (‘000)
17.4
22.4
35.8
2.2
77.7
All (%)
22.3
28.9
46.0
2.8
100.0
5
Source: CEET. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
The numbers in the table have been rounded to the nearest thousand.
1
Includes Tanker Driver and Tow Truck Driver.
2
Includes Courier and Postal Delivery Officer.
3
Includes Chauffeur and Automobile Driver nec.
4
Includes Charter and Tour Bus Driver and Passenger Coach Driver.
5
Includes Driving Instructor, Furniture Removalist, Truck Driver’s Offsider and Armoured Car Escort.
5 | training needs 2013–17
Table 5.6
Training needs in Aviation sector by
qualification, persons, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000s)
Occupation
Higher Education
Ad Dip/Dip
Cert III/IV
Cert I/II
All
Aeroplane Pilot1
0.8
1.3
0.1
0.0
2.1
Flight Attendant
0.5
0.7
0.3
0.0
1.5
Air Traffic Controller
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.7
Aircraft Maintenance Engineer2
0.1
0.1
3.2
0.3
3.8
Miscellaneous Workers3
0.2
0.0
0.5
0.1
0.8
All (‘000)
1.8
2.5
4.1
0.4
8.8
All (%)
20.3
28.7
46.7
4.2
100.0
Source: CEET. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
1
Includes Flying Instructor and Helicopter Pilot.
2
Includes Avionics, Mechanical and Structures.
3
Includes Aircraft Baggage Handler and Airline Ground Crew and Aircraft Refueller.
Table 5.7
Training needs in Rail sector by
qualification, persons, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000s)
Occupation
Higher Education
Ad Dip/Dip
Cert III/IV
Cert I/II
All
Train Driver
2.1
1.0
1.3
0.0
4.3
Railway Track Worker2
0.1
0.2
0.7
0.1
1.1
Railway Signal Operator
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.5
Miscellaneous Workers4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.6
All (‘000)
2.5
1.4
2.5
0.2
6.5
All (%)
37.8
20.9
37.6
3.5
100.0
All
1
3
Source: CEET. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
The numbers in the table have been rounded to the nearest thousand.
1
Includes Tram Driver.
2
Includes Railways Assistant and Railways Track Plant Operator.
3
Includes Train Controller.
4
Includes Railway Station Manager, Travel Attendant nec., Train Examiner, Transport Operations Inspector and Transport Conductor.
Table 5.8
Training needs in Maritime and Ports sector by
qualification, persons, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000)
Occupation
Higher Education
Ad Dip/Dip
Cert III/IV
Cert I/II
Waterside Worker
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.6
Ship’s Engineer1
0.6
1.0
0.1
0.0
1.6
Deck Hand
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.4
All (‘000)
0.8
1.4
0.4
0.1
2.6
All (%)
29.0
54.4
13.5
3.1
100.0
Source: CEET. Small numbers have relatively large associated standard errors and should be used with caution.
The numbers in the table have been rounded to the nearest thousand.
1
Includes Ship’s Master, Ship’s Officer, Ship’s Surveyor and Marine Transport Professionals nec.
Australian
Australian
transport
transport
andand
logistics
logistics
industry
industry
Forecasts
Forecasts
ofof
labour
labour
and
andskill
skillrequirements
requirements 2013–17
76
This report provides forecasts of labour and qualification needs in Transport
and Logistics industries in Australia from 2013 to 2017.
The report has used the most recent data and the most
advanced models for this purpose to produce robust results.
Models are always a simplification of reality. They can never
capture the full range of complex behaviour of governments,
individuals and firms that make up an economic system or
their interactions with each other. They try to model what
is known about individual and firm behaviour but cannot
model what is unknown or is not understood. Therefore
all models contain assumptions about complex behaviour
of individuals and firms. Models can be sensitive to small
changes in the assumptions made, but good models are
generally more robust.
Models are only as good as the quality of the data that are
used to estimate them. Even the most reliable data have
limitations because they are often derived from sample
surveys which contain sampling and measurement errors
and also because standard classifications are used for
coding the data. Currently some types of data, such as
skill sets, are not collected in the regular ABS surveys.
Many workers in the transport and logistics industries hold
occupational licenses (e.g. truck drivers) but because these
licenses are not embodied in a formal qualification they are
not identified in the official data collections. Yet workers
holding such licenses are highly productive people.
It is inevitable that developments that are currently
unforseen will eventually render forecasts from any
model, not just the ones included in this this report, to
be inaccurate. This report contains short- to mediumterm forecasts and are, therefore, unlikely to have large
margins of error.
Notwithstanding the limitations outlined above, the
forecasts of employment, job openings for new
entrants and the training needs in the Transport
and Logistics industries included in this report
provide sound baseline data that are systematic,
comprehensive and consistent for informing policy on
workforce development. These forecasts are clearly
a better alternative to ad hoc and partial evaluation
of the labour market for Transport and Logistics
industries that ignore inter-industry interactions with
the rest of the economy.
The forecasts should however be validated and
fine-tuned with information from other sources and
stakeholder consultation. It is also important to
update the forecasts on a regular basis as new data
become available and as improvements are made in
forecasting models.
Economic forecasts are never precise, especially over the
longer term, and always have a certain degree of uncertainty
attached to them.
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
Tables and figures
Table E1
5
Workforce profile in transport and logistics industries, 2002
5
Table E2
6
Table E3
Forecasts of employment in transport and
logistics industries, 2017 (‘000)
8
Employment growth rate, net replacement rate
and job openings in transport and logistics industries,
Australia, 2013–17
8
18
Table 2.1
24
Occupations in the Logistics sector and their skill level
Table 2.2
Occupations in the Road Transport sector and their skill level
Table 2.3
24
Occupations in the Aviation
sector and their skill level
Table 2.4
Occupations in the Maritime and Ports sector
and their skill level
31
Employment in Logistics sector by occupation,
persons, 2002, 2007 and 2012 (‘000)
Table 2.13
32
Gender distribution of employment in Logistics sector
by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
25
Occupations in the Rail sector and their skill level
Table 2.5
30
Regional distribution of employment in transport
and logistics industries by sector, Australia, 2012 (%)
Table 2.12
24
30
Regional distribution of employment in transport
and logistics industries by sector, Australia, 2002 (%)
Table 2.11
Population projections by age, Australia, 2013–17 (millions)
30
Employment in transport and logistics industries
by TLISC sector, persons, 2002, 2007 and 2012 (‘000)
Table 2.10
Training needs in transport and logistics industries,
Australia, 2013–17 (‘000)
28
Employment by qualification, persons, 2001,
2006 and 2011 (‘000)
Table 2.9
Table E5
28
Employment by occupation, persons, 2002,
2007 and 2012 (‘000)
Table 2.8
Table E4
26
Employment by industry, persons, 2002, 2007
and 2012 (‘000)
Table 2.7
Workforce profile in transport and logistics industries, 2012
Table 1.1
Table 2.6
25
Table 2.14
32
Age distribution of employment in Logistics sector
by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Table 2.15
Qualification distribution of employment in
Logistics sector by occupation, 15–64 year-olds,
Australia, 2001 and 2011 (%)
34
TABLES AND FIGURES
Table 2.16
34
Distribution of hours worked per week in Logistics
sector by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
35
Table 2.17
35
36
Table 2.19
37
Table 2.20
44
Age distribution of employment in Road sector
by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
37
Table 2.21
44
Gender distribution of employment in Rail sector
by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Table 2.29
Qualification distribution of employment in
Road Transport sector by occupation, 15–64 year-olds,
Australia, 2001 and 2011 (%)
43
Employment in Rail sector by occupation,
persons, 2002, 2007 and 2012 (‘000)
Table 2.28
Age distribution of employment in Road Transport
sector by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
42
Distribution of hours worked per week in Aviation
sector by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Table 2.27
Gender distribution of employment in Road Transport
sector by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
40
Qualification distribution of employment in Aviation
sector by occupation, 15–64 year-olds,
Australia, 2001 and 2011 (%)
Table 2.26
Employment in Road Transport sector by
occupation, persons, 2002, 2007 and 2012 (‘000)
Table 2.18
Table 2.25
Distribution of hours worked per week in
Road Transport sector by occupation,
Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Table 2.30
45
Qualification distribution of employment in Rail
sector by occupation, 15–64 year-olds,
Australia, 2001 and 2011 (%)
39
Table 2.22
Employment in Aviation sector by occupation,
persons, 2002, 2007 and 2012 (‘000)
Gender distribution of employment Aviation sector
by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Age distribution of employment in Aviation sector
by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Table 2.32
46
Employment in Aviation sector by occupation,
persons, 2002, 2007 and 2012 (‘000)
40
Table 2.24
45
Distribution of hours worked per week in Rail sector
by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
40
Table 2.23
Table 2.31
Table 2.33
47
Gender distribution of employment in Maritime and
Ports sector by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
80
Tables and figures (cont.)
Table 2.34
47
Age distribution of employment in Maritime and Ports
sector by occupation, Australia, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Table 2.35
48
48
Table 4.3
53
Forecasts of employment in transport and logistics
industries, persons, Australia, 2012 (actual),
2013–17 (forecasts) (‘000)
Table 3.5
Forecasts of employment in transport and logistics
industries by qualification, persons, Australia, 2012
(estimate), 2013–17 (forecasts) (‘000)
Table 3.6
57
Table 3.7
58
Forecasts of employment in Rail Transport sector
by qualification, persons, Australia, 2012 (estimate),
2017 (forecasts) (‘000)
68
Table 5.1
72
Training needs by qualification,
persons, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000)
Table 5.2
58
60
74
Training needs in transport and logistics industries
by qualification, persons, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000)
Table 5.4
60
73
Training needs by occupation and qualification,
persons, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000)
Table 5.3
Forecasts of employment in Aviation Transport sector
by qualification, persons, Australia, 2012 (estimate),
2017 (forecasts) (‘000)
Table 3.10
68
Forecasts of job openings for new entrants in
Maritime and Ports sector, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000)
Forecasts of employment in Road Transport sector
by qualification, persons, Australia, 2012 (estimate),
2017 (forecasts) (‘000)
Table 3.9
67
Forecasts of job openings for new entrants in
Rail Transport sector, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000)
Table 4.9
Forecasts of employment in Logistics sector by
qualification, persons, Australia, 2012 (estimate),
2017 (forecasts) (‘000)
Table 3.8
67
Forecasts of job openings for new entrants in
Aviation Transport sector, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000)
Table 4.8
Forecasts of employment in transport and logistics
industries by sector and qualification, persons, Australia,
2012 (estimate), 2017 (forecasts) (‘000)
66
Forecasts of job openings for new entrants in
Road Transport sector, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000)
Table 4.7
57
66
Forecasts of job openings for new entrants in
Logistics sector, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000)
Table 4.6
55
66
Forecasts of job openings for new entrants in transport
and logistics industries, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000)
Table 4.5
54
Employment forecasts by qualification, persons,
Australia, 2012 (estimate), 2013–17 (forecasts) (‘000)
Table 3.4
64
Employment growth and net replacement rates in
transport and logistics industries, Australia, 2013–17 (%)
Table 4.4
53
Employment forecasts by major occupation group,
persons, Australia, 2012 (actual), 2013–17 (forecasts) (‘000)
Table 3.3
Table 4.2
Forecasts of job openings for new entrants by
major occupation group, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000)
Employment forecasts by major industry group, persons,
Australia, 2012 (actual), 2013–17 (forecasts) (‘000)
Table 3.2
64
Employment growth and net replacement rates by
major occupation group, Australia, 2013–17 (%)
Distribution of hours worked per week in Maritime
and Ports sector by occupation, Australia, 15–64
year-olds, 2002 and 2012 (%)
Table 3.1
60
Forecasts of employment in Maritime and Ports sector
by qualification, persons, Australia, 2012 (estimate),
2017 (forecasts) (‘000)
Table 4.1
Qualification distribution of employment in
Maritime and Ports sector by occupation, Australia,
2001 and 2011 (%)
Table 2.36
Table 3.11
74
Training needs in Logistics sector by qualification,
persons, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000)
Table 5.5
Training needs in Road Transport sector by
qualification, persons, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000)
75
TABLES AND FIGURES
Table 5.6
76
Training needs in Aviation sector by qualification,
persons, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000)
Table 5.7
76
Training needs in Rail sector by qualification,
persons, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000)
Table 5.8
76
Training needs in Maritime and Ports sector
by qualification, persons, Australia, 2013–17 (‘000)
Figure 1
55
Employment in transport and logistics industries, persons,
Australia, 2002-12 (historical) 2013-17 (forecasts)
Figure 2
56
Employment in Logistics and Road Transport, persons,
Australia, 2002-12 (historical) 2013-17 (forecasts)
Figure 3
Employment in Aviation, Rail and Maritime
and Ports, persons, Australia, 2002-12
(historical) 2013-17 (forecasts)
56
82
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Australian transport and logistics industry Forecasts of labour and skill requirements 2013–17
84
AUSTRALIAN TRANSPORT AND LOGISTICS INDUSTRY
2013–17
Transport & Logistics
Industry Skills Council
P: 03 9604 7200
F: 03 9629 8903
E: enquiries@tlisc.org.au
tlisc.org.au
Ce ntre for the Economics of Education and Tra i n i n g
Fa c u l t y o f E d u c a t i o n , Mo n a s h U n i v e r s i t y