Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2011 with funding from Boston Library Consortium IVIember Libraries http://www.archive.org/details/pricestickinessiOOcaba DEWf?/ HB31 . .M415 n a o^. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Economics Working Paper Series Price Stickiness in Ss Models: New Interpretations Ricardo J. of Old Results Caballero Eduardo M.R.A. Engel Working Paper 07-07 Febi-uary 19, 2007 RoomE52-251 50 Memorial Drive Cambridge, 02142 MA paper can be downloaded without charge from the Social Science Research Network Paper Collection at This httsp://ssrn.com/abstract=963 1 45 - " Price Stickiness in Ss Models: New Interpretations of Old Results Ricardo MIT J. Eduardo M.R.A. Engel Yale University and NBER Caballero and NBER February 2007^ 19, Abstract What is the relation between infrequent price adjustment and the The answer the aggregate price level to monetary shocks? dynamic response of to this question ranges from a one-to-one link (Calvo, 1983) to no connection whatsoever (Caplin and Spulber, 1987). The purpose behind of this paper wide range of this which in this area, price rigidity. We The in this result is to provide a unified results. In doing so, framework to understand the mechanisms we propose new turn suggest the kind of Ss model that first show that when is result we revisit price stickiness is is microeconomic level. measured We likely to generate substantial Caplin and Spulber's monetary neutrality model. in not a consequence of aggregation, but stickiness at the is interpretations of key results also terms of the impulse response function, is due instead to the absence of show that the "selection effect," according to which units that adjust their prices are those that benefit the most, sufficient to account for the higher aggregate models. Instead, the key concept to the aggregate price response. is ized JEL is neither necessary nor 5s-type models compared to Calvo the contribution of the extensive margin of adjustment The aggregate the microeconomic frequency of adjustment Keywords: Aggregate flexibility of price- if price level and only if is more this flexible term is than suggested by positive. price stickiness, adjustment hazard, adjustment frequency, general- Ss model, extensive margin, Calvo model, strategic complementarities. classification: E32, E62. 'Respectively: caball@mit.edu; eduardo.engel@yale.edu. We thank Ruediger Bachmann, Olivier Blan- chard, Bill Brainard, Mike Golosov, Oleksy Kryvtsov, John Leahy, Virgiliu Midrigan, and participants at the Conference on "Microeconomic Adju.stment and Macroeconomic Dynamics" (Study Center Gerzensee, October 20, 2006); the New York Workshop on Monetary Economics (NY Fed, November 17, 2006), and the Duke macroeconomics workshop for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper (September, 2006) titled "Price Stickiness in Ss Models; Basic Properties." The authors thank the NSF for iinancial support. Introduction 1 Understanding the response of the aggregate price central questions in rigidity is monetary economics. Since the a microeconomic nomic pricing behavior, level to monetary shocks origin of almost is among the any aggregate nominal have been many studies documenting microeco- rigidity, there in particular the frequency of microeconomic price adjustment.^ For these studies to be relevant for macroeconomic policy, we need to understand the mapping from infrequent price adjustment to aggregate price stickiness. We already know that this mapping can be surprising. Caplin and Spulber (1987), henceforth CS, construct an insightful exam.ple where there is no relation between these two measures. They combine a one-sided Ss model of microeconomic price adjustment with a specific form of asynchronous adjustment of individual prices (the assumption of a uniform cross-section), and obtain an aggregate price level that responds one-for-one to monetary shocks. aggregate price stickiness in their model thereafter —the impulse response is Thus there is no one upon impact and zero —despite the fact that the frequency of microeconomic price adjustments can take any value. In a related recent result, Golosov and Lucas (2006) show that the sluggishness of the ag- gregate price response to monetary shocks is overestimated model with a Calvo model, where adjustment price imbalances. That is, is when approximating a menu-cost infrequent but uncorrelated with the size of the frequency of microeconomic price adjustments underestimates the flexibility of the aggregate price level in Ss models. Similarly, Bils and Klenow (2004) report that the flexibility of aggregated price series in U.S. retail data than suggested by the frequency of price adjustments observed in is significantly higher microeconomic data: they estimate a median monthly frequency of price adjustments of 0.21, while one minus the first- — a natural measure of aggregate price equal the adjustment frequency— almost order autocorrelation of the aggregate inflation series flexibility which in their Calvo setting should is four times as large. Aside from these illustrative examples, is there anything more general that can be said about the connection between the frequency of microeconomic adjustment and the degree of aggregate price level? flexibility of the What are the precise channels through which microe- conomic inaction and aggregate price stickiness are connected of this paper some is in Ss models? The purpose to answer these questions and, along the way, offer new interpretations for old results. ^See Bils and Klenow (2004)., and Nakamura and Steinsson (2006a) for the U.S., and Dhyne et al. (2006) and Fabiani et al. (2006) for a summary of the findings of the impressive set of country studies sponsored by the ECB's Inflation Persistence Network. There are two new interpretations and mechanisms we discuss out. First, the effect main result in CS is that in their context a on aggregate output, despite the fact that at The standard units do not adjust their prices. smaU monetary expansion has no any given instant most microeconomic interpretation of this resuh erases the impact of microeconomic stickiness. Our first point depends crucially on the concept of price stickiness being used. concept is paper that stand in this is If, is that aggregation that this interpretation at the micro level, this defined in terms of the frequency of price adjustments, then the statement correct, since money neutral at the aggregate level despite the fact that most firms do not is adjust their prices at the micro stickiness, in is level. Yet if we have in mind a more standard definition of terms of the impulse response to monetary shocks, then the usual interpretation of Caplin and Spulber's money neutrality result changes dramatically, as now it reflects the absence of microeconomic stickiness. Second, Golosov and Lucas (2006) coined the expression "selection effect" to describe the feature of Ss type models that adjusting firms are those that need with Calvo's model, where adjustment is it most, in sharp contrast completely random. They argue informally, and others have followed, that this feature explains the higher aggregate flexibility of Ss type models over Calvo models, for a given that while the selection effect behind their additional is frequency of microeconomic adjustment. present in most Ss type models, it is show not the key concept flexibility. Instead, the key concept is that of an extensive margin. That is, price increase resulting from the rise in the fraction of agents adjusting fall in We of the additional upwards and the the fraction of agents adjusting downwards, both as a consequence of an additional monetary impulse. It contrasts with the intensive margin, which describes the additional price increase (or reduced price decrease) of those firms that were going to adjust anyway. Only the intensive margin are strictly positive. is active in the Calvo model, while in This extensive margin of agents reaching the trigger thresholds in is Ss type models both margins a generalization of the effect of the number Ss models discussed by Bar-Ilan and Blinder (1992).3 Section 2 revisits the Caplin and Spulber model. Section 3 begins our study of the relation of aggregate price flexibility and the frequency of microeconomic adjustment, considering a simple extension of the Caplin and Spulber model that includes the Calvo model as a hmiting case. Sections 4 and 5 are the core of the paper: they describe the key results in the context ^Incidentally, while Golosov and Lucas (2006) used the expression "selection effect" to describe the mechanism behind their finding, they do point out in their formal analysis that the key difference between the Calvo model and their particular Ss model is the change in the number of agents that adjust in response to a monetary impulse. The point, however, is that selection and extensive margin are not synonyms. of a generalized 6 concludes and Ss model, which includes standard Ss models is as a particular case. Section followed by an appendix. Caplin and Spulber Revisited 2 This section recreates and clarifies the source of the Caplin and Spulber monetary neutrality provides a natural starting point for the topics we cover in later sections. result. It also The Model 2.1 Let us focus on the aspects of the model which are relevant to our concerns, skipping the derivation of the underlying microeconomic rules or a discussion of general equilibrium as- which are largely orthogonal to the issues we address pects, Dotsey, King and There exists a Wolman (1999) for useful references on the steps continuum of firms indexed by z e [0, 1]. Stokey (2002) and (see, e.g., we Let pu and skip). p*f. denote the (log of the - henceforth omitted) actual and target price, respectively, both for firm CS i at time t.^ In there are no idiosyncratic shocks and, leaving aside inessential constants: Pit where rrii denotes the Aggregate output, money yt, is stock. of m^ are continuous and level, pt, = mt-Pt, defined as = pudi. / there are no frictions in microeconomic price adjustment, p^ and money is neutral. Suppose instead that there and hence firms adopt Ss increasing. proportional to (the log of) real balances: Pf If (1) The sample paths yt with the aggregate price = ^t is = p*t = mj, so that pt = mt a fixed cost of adjusting individual prices rules in setting their prices. As usual, it is convenient to define a state variable: Xit *ln a model with stochastic adjustment = costs, p*^ conditional on the current state of the economy, P^t is if its - P*if defined formally as the price the agent would choose, current adjustment cost draw is equal to zero. The adjustment S — s. rule such that when xu reaches is s — S, the firm increases the price by This large adjustment catches up with the accumulated monetary expansion since the previous adjustment and anticipates some of the expansion that will take place before the next adjustment (recall that p*j is mj plus a constant; furthermore, equal to convention used in generalized Ss models, this constant X is is following the chosen so that the price imbalance zero immediately after firms adjust their prices). In CS, firms' adjustments are not perfectly synchronized because the initial cross-section distribution of actual prices distribution of x is is non-degenerate. uniform over the entire (s In particular, — S, 0] CS assume interval. It that the initial turns out that under the monotonicity and continuity assumptions for the sample paths of money, this uniform distribution is invariant: While the position time, the cross-section distribution remains of individual firms in state space changes over unchanged and uniform over taken from CS, illustrates the variation over time oi r in the = x + (s — 5, 0]. S, iov an agent absence of idiosyncratic shocks, the distance between agents on the i\ Figure 1, note that circle remains unchanged. Figure 1: Tlie Caplin and Spulber Model S..S r,(U r,(U) ^(t,) 2.2 Main Result The main result in CS is that in this context a small monetary expansion has no effect on aggregate output, despite the fact that at any given instant most microeconomic units do not adjust their prices. To see this result, note that a monetarj' expansion of A?n triggers the adjustment of Am./{S The change — and each s) firms, aggregate price level in the of these firms increases its price by {S — s). simply the product of these two terms: is Ap=^I^x{S-s) = Am (2) and hence Ay = The standard nomic interpretation of this result Our stickiness. first point is 0. that aggregation erases the impact of microeco- is that this interpretation depends crucially on the concept of price stickiness one has in mind. concept If this defined in terms of the frequency of is microeconomic price adjustments, then the statement is money correct, since is neutral at the aggregate level despite the fact that most firms do not adjust their prices at the micro Yet level. if one has in mind a more standard definition of stickiness, terms of the impulse in response to monetary shocks, then the usual interpretation of Caplin and Spulber's neutrality result changes, as now reflects the it A¥e support our claim in two steps. representative firm i, barrier. Only if x is absence of microeconomic stickiness. Consider first the price-response Apj(Am,,3:) of a with state variable x to a small monetary shock of size X by Am^ leads to no adjustment close if the firm enough to —S s is money at a distance larger than Am. A shift of Am from the trigger does the firm adjust, from (approximately) s -S toO.^ Therefore: iix> s- S + Am, {0, S— and it s, otherwise, follows that: if 0, x > s - S + Am, Api(Am.,x) Am {S To obtain a measure tion, we average of — s)/Am, microeconomic otherwise. flexibility in terms of the impulse response func- this expression over all possible values of x. the different values of x is The obvious candidate the average time-distribution (ergodic distribution) of the state ^Strictly speaking, the adju'stment is from x — Am to 0, but s — S - x + Am adjusting firms that s — 5 is a good approximation and simplifies the expressions. -^ does not depend on this approximation. Am to weigh is sufficiently small for Of course, the limit as variable x for a given firm. Denoting this density by hsix) —= - Am have: hE{x)dx, ^^ Am ^ (3)^ ^ ' intuitively obvious (for a proof see Section 3) that a firm's ergodic density in It is uniform on — (s 5,0], so that h^ix) The impulse response and adds up IRF / J,_s we to constant and equal to 1/(5* 5s (and Calvo) type models is main measure summarized by the of initial microeconomic price — is s). typically decreases monotonically Thus, much of the persistence of the to one because of long run neutrality. monetary shocks define our of is CS response to such a shock. We therefore flexibility as: Am It follows that there is no price stickiness at the microeconomic /s-S+Am __s In other words, if we _ ^^ Am q „ level since: 1 X -i- follow a firm over time and S -s dx = 1. draw the histogram of its marginal responses to a monetary shock, Ap,t/Am., most of the observations pile up at zero. a small fraction of observations pile up at (5 response is much larger than one-for-one. 1 Property 1 T tends to (The IRF in its first over time of Apu/Am, ^ Apu Am infinity. Caplin-Spulber has no microeconomic price-stickiness) In Caplin and Spulber: J^cs^cro It is Yet corresponding to times where the The average value T ^^ t=i converges to one as — s)/Am, ^ i easy to extend the above result to the complete impulse response function, beyond element. Denote by IRF""^''° the average price response of a firm at time k to a small monetary shock Am in period zero, normalized by the size of the shock. jp-pCS, micro We then have: ^""^'c™^ Thus, not only but any reasonable definition of price- flexibility based on the entire IRF, assigns no microeconomic stickiness The second step in our study of the and aggregate price see equation (2) in the IRF stickiness. It follows in CS context. Caplin and Spulber connects microeconomic from our derivation of Caplin and Spulber's —that the aggregate response of the price one-for-one upon impact and zero however, that the actual cross-section distribution has is level to thereafter. This is the well little monetary shocks known CS to result do with also is Our point, this result. Once result. the model has no microeconomic stickiness, the macroeconomic result follows regardless of what the result that the Ergodic Theorem (see, e.g., monetary shock Am Walters (1982). can be defined To obtain an aggregate measure all We analogous to JT™"^™ is quite general and follows from sketch the proof of this result next. that the aggregate price response as: Am of price flexibility, possible cross-sections f{x)\ fi{x), f2{x), flexibility is we have for the state variable, J over turn to this issue next. micro and macro stickiness are the same Given a cross-section /(x) to a We like. Relation between Micro and Macro Stickiness 2.3 The cross-section distributions look we need , fn{x).^ to average the above expression The measure of aggregate price therefore defined as: n ^--™ = ^u-,.F(A), (5) fc=i where w^ denotes the weight of the k-th cross section, with iVk Denoting the weighted average of defined in (4) is linear, we all cross-sections by /.4(:r), > and '}22=i'^^k course, no averaging have: is needed for the the same in this case (anduniform on ''The actual number of cross-sections formal statement and proof. 1- and noting that the operator ^— = HIa) = J ^^^^^^Ux)dx. Of = We is assume a (s — 5", 0]). since More all cross sections fk{x) in (5) are generally, however, such and not countable, thus measure theory number for illustrative purposes. infinite finite CS model, (6) is an average required for a under rather weak conditions and, by the Ergodic Theorem, exists firm's ergodic density, hsix), considered in (3). Since /yi(a;) = is equal to the individual hsix), comparing (3) and (6) yields the following property: Property 2 (Macro and micro price Macro- and microeconomic same in flexibility are always the same) price flexibility, as measured by -rmicro Furthermore, a straightforward extension of the derivation of and micro over Our all im,pulse response to a is all cross sections, shows that the macro this result monetary shock are the same obtained by averaging over (Where at all lags. the CS model now and the micro response by averaging follows from Properties Property 3 (The source of aggregate price When price stickiness is nomic level. 2.4 The Role flexibility in 1 and 2: Caplin and Spulber) defined in terms of the impulse response function, the source of aggregate price flexibility in Caplin and Spulber is the absence of stickiness at the microeco- of the Cross-Section apparent from the previous property that the uniform cross-section distribution does not vary over time, is The answer the role played by this assumption? the same at all CS ensured moments in time. is in CS So what has nothing to do with the absence of aggregate price stickiness in their model. is macro individual time-series.) interpretation claim for the It is are the ^ any (stationary) macroeconomic model: 'T-macTO response and J^^^^° JP"^"^''° that by choosing a distribution that that the response of the economy For most Ss-type models this to aggregate shocks not the case, since is the cross-section varies endogenously over time, and so does any reasonable measure of price flexibility (for example, the one defined generahzation of CS Consider the CS now (see Caballero in (4)). To illustrate this point, and Engel (1991) for more we develop a simple details). setting, except for the initial distribution of firms' state variable, covers only half the inaction range: the initial distribution is Ss bands are normalized uniform on [—3/2, —1/2]. 8 to 5— s = 2 which and the Figure p and 2: - ' ' p with m strat. in an extension of Caplin-Spulber compl. 4- 20 40 30 50 60 time The solid line in Figure 2 depicts the evolution of the price level assumption that no firm adjusts m its grows linearly over time at the rate price and the aggregate price reach the trigger level s — S and the last firm adjusts, a new period without We first Initially, there is does not change. a period where Eventually, firms the aggregate price level rises twice as fast as money. After price adjustment begins, and so on. note that the ergodic density for a single firm continues to be uniform on the entire inaction range, (—2,0]. one as in the ^pnacro ^ 2 level /i. under the additional Thus our measure of micro price-flexibihty, J^™^'^'^°^ is equal to standard version of Caplin and Spulber, which from Property 2 implies that as WCll. Since in this case / varies over time, so does the conditional price-flexibility measure defined in (4). In this example it only takes two values, each one of them half the time: when no firm is adjusting (/(— 2"*") = 0), Hf) 2 Thus, what is special about no aggregate price when some CS is = within the class of one-sided Ss models stickiness. It follows Engel (1993a) that this firms are adjusting (/(— 2+) 1). is from the Average Neutrality Result not that there in is Caballero and the case for a broad family of models of this type. Instead, what special about CS's cross-section distribution is of the aggregate price level to is that it is invariant and hence the response monetary shocks does not vary over time. Strategic Complementarities 2.5 Let us conclude this section with an extension that incorporates strategic complementarities. Equation (1) becomes: * = Kt where the parameter a G [0, (1 - «)"^i + «Pi> 1/2) captures the extent to which firms wish to coordinate their prices. Firms have stronger incentives to keep their prices when is a (7) in line with those of other firms larger. The aggregate change in prices — S)At ments. Equation (8) is the fraction of firms that adjust and extends Substituting (7) in (8) is given by: = Ap*f{s-S)Atx{S-s), 'Ap where Ap*f{s during a small time unit At (2) to this and solving more general for Ap (8) S— s the size of their adjust- setting. leads to: when no firm is = adjusting (/( — 2"'") 0), Ap = (2 — 2a)/jAt/(l — 2a) when some firm are adjusting (/( — 2"*") = 1). Hence: when no •^(/) = firm is adjusting (/(— 2"^) = 0), (9) { (2 The dash-dotted — 2a)/(l line in Compared with the — 2a) when some firms are adjusting (/( — case without strategic complementarities (a aggregate price level increases, it = The 0, solid line), flip side is The 0.4. the aggregate that when the longer periods of inaction and the shorter but brisker periods with price adjustments cancel each other out so that the is = does so at a faster rate, since a larger fraction of firms adjust their price in any given time period. —which 1). Figure 2 depicts the evolution of the price level when a price level remains constant during longer periods of time. J^ = 2"*") equal to the average of J-'{f) —continues to be equal to one. 10 flexibility index From Caplin-Spulber 3 What we expect between the relation should flexibility in to Calvo price adjustment frequency menu-cost models? The one-sided Ss models described and aggregate price earlier, with complete price flexibility at the aggregate level regardless of the adjustment frequency, suggest that the answer is At the other extreme none. coincide and aggregate flexibility however, the answer CS In the equal to the adjustment frequency. equal to is ps-s+^i 1 S-s s-S as before, denotes the fj.., range, and money growth we have assumed that the Since the price flexibility index threshold now modify s — S, there time, regardless of its rate (assumed constant), {s (i.e., fi J^'^^ is < S— the inaction such that there are always firms s). we have one, is — S, 0] that: the one-sided Ss model and assume that in addition to the trigger a strictly positive hazard A that a firm adjusts at any point in is price imbalance x. Thus, one-sided Ss models: As we S choice of time unit that do not adjust within a given period Let us generally, model, the fraction of firms that adjust in one time period, henceforth the frequency of adjustment index, where More between these two extremes. in is is the Calvo (1983) model, where both concepts is s we have a model that nests both Calvo and tends to minus infinity we obtain the Calvo model, while if A = are back to CS. If f{x,t) denotes the cross-section density at time f{x,t + At) = {I- XAt)f{x + fiAt,t), t, then s- S <x<0. This follows from the fact that a firm with a price imbalance x at time a price imbalance x at time t + /j,At at time t, Property 2 we know that the time-average of of. an individual price the concept we need to compute Setting f{-,t + At) = f{-,t) A = + At must have had and that a fraction XAt of firms with imbalance x + fiAt adjusts before reaching x because of a Calvo-type shock. the ergodic distribution t all From the derivation of possible cross-sections, /^(a;), setter. is equal to Let us calculate this average, as it is and T. hE{-) = /a(-) in the expression above, using a first-order 11 Taylor expansion and letting At — leads to: > = f'^{x) with a= afA{x), Imposing that the integral of Ja over the inaction range X/12. ,/-4(^) = ,.(5-s)_i one, then yields: is s-S<x<0. ' (10) Choosing the unit with which we measure time small enough so that the probability of two Poisson-shocks for the same firm in a given fraction of firms that adjust in one time period Fraction of adjusters where Fa denotes the c.d.f. for /a- The = A first time-period is is: + (1 — X)Fa{s —S+ (11) fi) term on the right hand side The second term firms that adjust because of a Poisson shock. we have that the negligible, considers, the fraction of is among those that did not receive such a shock, the fraction that adjusted because their state variable reached the trigger s — S. It follows that: Fraction of adjusters and from (10) we have = A + (1 — X)fA{s — 5)/i, (12) that: Hence, since the fraction of agents that adjust before reaching the CS-trigger s with A, the frequency of adjustment index A"^ increases monotonically with For technical reasons, flexibility index it T once there is is useful to turn to discrete time a Poisson term. We when — S grows A. calculating the price- then have (as the impulse Am tends to zero): ^-A + (l-A)/^(s-5)(5'-s). Am, The first term on the right hand side is the marginal price increase due to the monetary shock, for those firms with a Poisson-induced adjustment. firms to the monetary shock is (14). one-for-one. The marginal response The second term is the additional contribution to inflation from firms that adjust because they reach the trigger barrier s with the Poisson-induced adjusters, the response of these firms 12 of these is — S. In contrast {S — s)/Ain times the shock that triggers their adjustment, and therefore A < J?^'^ < 1 for < A < More 1. a{S + (l-A) Ms-s) _ A A~ 77?, case) T^ and again one does not vary monotonically with for = A 1 (no micro frictions). increasing for larger values (see Figure Figure 3: T and A for A \ I \ \ 1 0.7 \ \ \ 0.6 It is one for = A (the CS decreasing for small values of A and It is a Caplin-Spulber model with Poisson Shocks \ 0.8 A. :i5) \ 3). 1 0.9 larger than one-to-one, so that precisely, substituting (10) in (14) yields T' Also note that much / \ 0.5 ^ 0.4 0.3 0.2 Adjustment frequency - - 0,1 t*^ 1 1 0.1 1 1 0.4 0.5 1 0.2 0,3 Flexibility 1 1 0.6 0.7 Index 1 0.8 0.9 1 \ This simple example illustrates the complex connection between aggregate the price adjustment frequency. Whether an reduces price stickiness depends on how and increase in the frequency of price adjustments the increase in frecjuency affects the contribution of the intensive and extensive margins to the flexibility index The flexibility intensive margin refers to firms for which the J-^. monetary shock only affects firms behavior by increasing the price adjustment of those that would have adjusted anyway, with or without the monetary shock. These are the firms their adjustment, their contribution to JF is the first The contribution to J^ of the intensive T is which the Poisson shock triggers The extensive triggered by the marginal monetary term on the margin, by contrast, refers to firms whose adjustment shock (the impulse), their contribution to for is of (15). the second term on the margin increases with 13 r.h.s. r.h.s. of (15). A, this is obvious. What is obvious less that the contribution of the extensive margin decreases, since the fraction of is firms in the neighborhood of the trigger barrier s at S, f{s — component decreases small values of A and small for larger values of which the fraction of firms becomes smaller and ^mailer in the is constant (and equal to large (in absolute value) for is The reason A. While the rate S), decreases. which the intensive margin component of J^ increases with A one), the rate at which the extensive at — the latter for neighborhood of the adjustment trigger that the rate is s —S decreases as A grows. Taking stock, once we incorporate Poisson shocks into the CS environment, we have that, as expected, the flexibility more direction for large values of A: more responsive A for a given The reason (s is and frequency of price adjustment indices move to shocks. Yet, as — S, 0] firms adjusting shown in Figure interval, for small values of 3, means that the aggregate which plots J^'^ and A both indices move in in the price level opposite directions. that for small values of A the weakening of the extensive margin why J^^ decreases as mechanism The frequency models, and this lower bound and (15), a = X/n). is of adjustment index follows that, for A The Calvo model < is 1 and a lower bound To fj, for flexibility in compare (13) s) (also recall that see this, < (S — Ss s finite, A^. obtained by taking the limit as s goes to minus infinity, in which case (for all A): S 4 a more general context in the achieved by the Calvo model. T^ > we have is in and recah that our choice of time period ensures that It flexibility, A increases. This example also helps motivate a point we develop following section: is A"^ as a function of dominates over the standard positive relation between adjustment frequency and explaining same lim J^^ — CX) = » The Extensive Margin s —lim A^ = A. >— oo Effect Let us generalize the model of the previous sections to consider a broader set of shocks and adjustment rules. These extensions are more to the growth rate of money idiosyncratic (productivity ance aj. No assumptions idiosyncratic) shocks. are i.i.d. with easily mean /x implemented made regarding the Shocks and variance a\, and firms experience and demand) shocks v^ which are are in discrete time. common i.i.d. with zero mean and vari- distribution across aggregate (and These shocks are independent across agents and from the aggregate 14 shock. With these assumptions, the target price foUows the process: Ap*^ With no croeconomic We Arut + vu- further changes, and preserving the fixed cost of adjusting prices at the milevel, this generalize costs as well, = further it environment yields a two-sided Ss pohcy and assume that there are drawn from a these adjustment costs, distribution G(cj). i.i.d. Barro (1972)). idiosyncratic shocks to adjustment Integrating over we obtain an adjustment (see, e.g., all possible realizations of hazard, A{x), defined as the probability of adjusting prior to knowing the current adjustment cost draw, with^ < It < A{x) 1, Vx. follows that for non-degenerate distributions G(w), A{x) increasing for x > 0: the cost of deviating from the target price the distance from this price and therefore adjustment is is is more decreasing for x is < and increasing with respect to likely when jx| is larger. This the increasing hazard property (Caballero and Engel, 1993c). Denoting by f{x,t) the cross section of price imbalances immediately before adjustments take place at time t, we have: Apt 4.1 A = — / xA{x)f{x,t)dx. Basic Inequality Let ApQ{Am.'^) denote the average (over response to a monetary deviation of Am^ all possible cross-section distributions) inflation from its average growth rate. the impulse response function with respect to this shock jr = Ap;(A7n'^ = is our The first element of flexibility index: 0). 'See Caballero and Engel (1999) for a detailed discussion of such a model, Dotsey, King and for an estimation of Wolman dynamic general equilibrium context, and Caballero and Engel (1993b) a generalized hazard model for prices. (1999) for an application to prices in a 15 We have: = - Apo(Am'^) = - [{x- first - (16) Am'')fA{x)dx. Am'^ and evaluating A{x)fA{x)dx+ at Am'^ = yields: xk'{x)fA{x)dx I Note that the Am'^)dx I\n/)k{x Differentiating this expression with respect to J^= + / xA(x)/.4(a: (17) I term on the right hand side corresponds to the adjustment frequency, A. The second term, which we denote by £, corresponds the contribution of the extensive margin (more on this shortly). Thus we can write: 7 = A + £. It (18) follows that: Property 4 (Flexibility and adjustment frequency are the same In the Calvo model, where K'{x) More importantly, it = 0, we have In increasing hazard models we have for X > The 0. J'>A.^ It S = and Q J^*^^^™ = Calvo model) ^Caivo_ also follows that: Property 5 (The adjustment frequency Proof that in the £ > is 0, a lower bound follows that .tA'(x) > for all x, T> and therefore increasing hazard property states that A'(x) for flexibility) > A. for and therefore £ x < and A'(a:) = J xA'{x)f{x)dx > < and I The above results the lines of what can be extended to the case with strategic complementarities along we did in Section 2.5 (see complementarity parameter a in (7) is Caballero and Engel, 2006). positive, (18) When the strategic becomes: T^hiA + £), ^This result also holds which A(x) satisfies this set with positive if we work with the weaker concept property if A'{x) < for x < measure (under the model's ergodic density). 16 of "increasing hazard property", according to and A'(x) > for x > 0, with strict inequality on a where h{x) is As a strictly increasing function.^ before, a positive extensive margin £ ac- counts for a larger average response of the price level to monetary shocks than suggested by the intensive margin A. Extensions 4.2 In this subsection of standard Ss we discuss two extensions of the above results. First, policies, we consider the case where the smoothness assumptions under which we derived (17) do not hold. Second, we show that the above inequality extends to the case of conditional impulse responses. Standard Ss Policies 4.2.1 The above derivation assumes that A(x) and are continuous, which does not hold for /.4(a:) standard Ss models, such as Barro (1972), Caphn and Spulber (1987), and other models where the distribution when xA{x)f{x) has of adjustment costs is mass a jump-discontinuities at Xi,X2,X2, point. -"^ .... As shown in the Appendix, expression (17) becomes: J^= lA{x)Ux)dx + JxA'{x)Ux)dx + Y^Xk[A{xt)f{xt)-Mx;)f{x^)], where f{x'l) and f{x^) denote the values than Xk) and left, limit of f{x) when x approaches (19) x^ from the right (larger respectively. In particular, for a standard two-sided policy, we have that the + - Fa{U)), price imbalance belongs to [L, [/], hand Fa{L) side of (19) are equal to Ss (1 where first, firms' remain inactive when their second and third terms on the right and |L|/.4(I) + UfA{U), respectively, so that:^^ ^= where Fa denotes the It Fa{L) c.d.f. + (1 - Fa{U)) + |I|/.4(L) + UfAiU), (20) corresponding to /a- follows that for a standard two-sided A= Fa{L) ^5 model we have: + {1-Fa{U)), £ = \L\fA{L) + UfA{U). ^h{x) = (1 -a)xl[l -ax). ^°See Sheshinski and Weiss (1993) for a comprehensive volume on Ss models of pricing decisions. ^^Bar-Ilan and Blinder (1992) derive a similar expression in the context of one-sided 17 Ss rules. Conditional Impulse Responses 4.2.2 As we showed time variation in the cross-section distribution leads to price- in Section 2, Ss models, the flexibihty indices that vary over time. In generaHzed of price imbalances cross section distribution influenced by the sequence of monetary shocks hitting the economy. is IRF quantify the extent to which the fluctuates over time, To we note that the expressions we derived above also apply to time- varying measures of price-adjustments and price-flexibility. Denote by f{x,t) the cross-section of price imbalances at time firms adjusting their price in period response function. We t and by the !Ft by At the fraction of t, element of period first t's impulse then have that: .F, = At + Et with £t= That is, fluctuations in the IRF xA'{x)f{x,t)dx. of generalized Ss models are driven by changes fraction of agents that adjust in any given time interval and in the extensive margin. Extensive Margin or Selection Effect? 5 As mentioned That is, earlier, the term £ quantifies the importance of the extensive margin effect. of the additional price increase resulting adjusting upwards and the fall which describes the additional price increase larger adjustment (after the rise in monetary impulse) It the fraction of agents downwards, both as a contrasts with the intensive margin A, reduced price decrease) resulting from the (or In the Calvo model, only the intensive margin both margins are from the in the fraction of agents adjusting consequence of the additional monetary impulse. of those that is were going to adjust anyway. active, while in increasing hazard models strictly positive. This extensive margin trigger thresholds in is a generalization of the eflPect of the number Ss models discussed by Bar-Ilan and Blinder Golosov and Lucas (2006) have referred to the additional of agents reaching the (1992).^^ flexibility in More shock are those that benefit the most from doing so. recently, Ss models selection effect, arguing that the agents that adjust their prices in response to a is in the As we show below, the as the monetary selection effect not always an accurate description of the source of the additional flexibility present in Ss- ^"For recent papers highlighting the role of the extensive margin see, for example, Klenow and Kryvtsov (200.5) and Burstein and Hellwig (2006). 18 type models. For this reason, we instead advocate using the extensive margin index defined above to characterize tlie mechanisms In order to understand the X and decompose its monetary shocks additional responsiveness to we consider a at work, in S's-type models. firm with price imbalance marginal response to a monetary shock, T{x), into the sum of the contributions of the intensive and exteiisive margins: where r]{x) = increasing hazard model a selection effect £{x) = xA'{x) J-'{x) = is characterized by A{x) + > r7(x) 0, yet, as we show £{x) increases monotonically with normal to the inverted A{x) > A{x)7]{x), \x\ next, this does (which is what means). Assume A{x) belongs with A2 = Example First 5.1 A(x), x. always imply that n.ot = xA'{x)/A{x) denotes the elasticity of the adjustment hazard with respect to the price imbalance An A{x) = family:-^"^ - I e-^'~^\ (21) 0. Figure 4 plots the intensive, extensive and total response as a function of the price imbalance As x. Some simple the case with < 1, that is, It is increasing hazard models, A{x) all Xo > £{x) 0, values of x with A(x) however, the extensive margin increases. all algebra shows that, for such that Xox^ \x\, is < effect decreases as 1 is — is increasing in 1/e = increasing in \x\ \x\. for values of x For larger values of 0.632. the magnitude of the price imbalance therefore not surprising that in the range of price imbalances with sufficiently high probabihty of adjusting (A(x) > 1 — e""^/^ = monotonically with 0.78), J-'{x) decreases |x|.i4 For this family of adjustment hazards, the largest marginal price response to a monetary shock comes from firms with an ex-ante probability of adjusting slightly below 80%. Firms with higher adjustment probabilities benefit more from changing their price but contribute less to the economy's marginal response to a monetary shock. ^'See Caballero and Engel (1999) for an application of i^Both statements above follow from A{x) 8'{x) = 4A2x(l - A2a;2)e-^2^' and r{x) = = 1 A2x(6 - - tliis e''^^^', follows that the "selection family to investment. £{x) A\2X^)e-^^-''\ 19 It = 2\2X^e-^^'''' , A!{x) = 2A22;e" Figure 4: Generalized Ss Model where the Selection Effect does not hold 1.5 ' Extensive margin Intensive margin Flexibility -0.25 -0.2 -0.15 -OJ -0.05 index F(x) 0,05 0.15 0.1 0.25 0.2 price imbalance x effect" does not provide the correct intuition underlying the larger price response to monetary shocks in this example. 5.2 General Insight The insight of the preceding attains its minimum example value at x = valid is Furthermore, often this 0. A(x) admits a quadratic approximation ;^A"(0)a;^ in a xA'{x) 77(0) We = = x^o A{x) approach zero. It follows that, as to values close to directions as \x\ when |x| is |x| present, the selection effect x = 0, is, = 0, |x| = 2A so that (22) increases, r]{x) grows, so that A'{x), and therefore must decrease from a value two is increasing in \x\. would always hold. Yet there we have £ zero and i-5 iA"(0)a:2 large enough.-'^ Thus, A{x) is A"(0)a:- ^^Furthermore, in Caballero and Engel (2006) we show that of neighborhood of x value effects pull T{x) increases. First, firms tolerate less well larger price imbalance likely to adjust their price, that neighborhood minimum lim also have that, in general, A(x) approaches one as ri{x), X more broadly. In generalized Ss models, A(x) and therefore JF 20 = if 77(0;) 3A. is If this a second in opposite and are more were the only effect: remains close to 2 in of 2 at as |x| effect grows a sufficiently large large enough, the elasticity 'i]{x) eventually is decreasing in |.t|. This leads to a diminishing contribution of the extensive margin, A{x)'q{x), and points in the opposite direction. selection effect provides the correct intuition only values of x. However the latter effect 5s-type models, since £{x) is is likely to when The the former effect dominates for dominate for large enough in \x\ all many decreasing in this range of values while A{x) approaches a constant value of one. Property 6 (The Selection Effect and the Extensive Adargin Effect) In generalized Ss models, the firms that contribute the most to the aggregate price level due to the fact that size of the price imbalance when are not necessarily those that benefit the m.ost from> adjusting. the coTitribution of the extensive the latter is margin decreases with the Ss models also holds for standard two-sided Ss policy and the notation introduced when 1 ^{Am,x) = { Am + U + x/Am, L, Am<x<U, < X <U + Am, (23) x>U + Am. Firms with imbalances slightly above the trigger L and ones that contribute most to the aggregate price former, because the shock leads in the then have: L+ 1, would have remained inactive We Consider a L<x<L + Am, |j|/Am, 0, 1 in discrete time. deriving (20). < X 1, The is sufficiently large. The above property shock. This them slightly level's below the trigger U are the marginal response to a monetary to adjust their price absence of the monetary shock. upward when they The latter, because the additional monetary expansion modifies their optimal choice from adjusting their price downward X » U) to not adjusting at benefit In contrast, firms with larger imbalances {x all. more from adjusting but contribute 5.3 Second Example In our first example the selection example where the selection effect effect is less to £ = L or the aggregate price response. does not hold and yet £ present and « > 0. Next we provide an 0. Aggregate shocks are drawn from a density with zero mean and bounded support, with a very small variance. Idiosyncratic shocks are drawn from the trimodal distribution depicted 21 Figure 5: Density of idiosyncratic shocks 1 0.8 S 0,6 0.4 0.2 A- A -0.25-0.2-0.15-0,1-0 05 price in 05 imbalance 01 15 02 25 x Figure 5}^ With a high probability (0.8 in the figure), the idiosyncratic shock with a low probability bounded support that (0.2 in the figure) is far away from it is which have the same magnitude but opposite and either large The positive, large is a fixed fraction of firms profits, leading to a two sided The shown as in Barro (1972). Figure which also shows the corresponding Ss bands (dashed this figure, there are case. The means, zero. Ss policy 6, differ in their signs. It follows that idiosyncratic shocks are and negative, or cost of adjusting prices zero while the realization of one of two densities with These two densities only zero. is resulting ergodic density is no firms at the trigger barriers, so that £ line). = in the solid As can be seen and J^ = A all —have their price imbalance in in this — in this in the region where leptokurtic shape of idiosyncratic shocks implies that very few firms simple and extreme example no firm at hne in marginal monetary shocks affect their decision to adjust. Firms either have large (absolute) price imbalances and adjust independent of the additional monetary shock, or have small deviations and will not adjust, with or without the marginal shock. Yet the selection effect is present since those firms that adjust are, indeed, those with largest imbalances and therefore those who most level is the same benefit from doing so, even though their marginal contribution to the price as that of adjusting firms in a Calvo model. ^^This results in a leptokurtic distribution for idiosyncratic shocks, as Leahy (2006). 22 in Midrigan (2006) and Gertler and Figure 6: Ergodic density and Ss bands -0-25-0.2-0.15-0.1-0.05 price 015 0.1 02 025 Summary 5.4 In 05 imbalance x summary, what matters Ss) models is for the additional flexibiUty of increasing the increase in the fraction of agents adjusting in the direction of the impulse (and the decrease of agents adjusting Whether in the opposite direction), is caused by the impulse. come from agents that these changes in the decision to adjust the target hazard (and standard are near the tails or a secondary factor. Decomposing the flexibility and extensive margins, A and index J^ into the sum S, provides a simple responsiveness present in 5s-type models. The of the contribution of the intensive way larger is of quantifying the additional price £, the larger is the contribution to the aggregate price level of time- variations in the fraction of firms adjusting. We have provided an example where there example where the selection effect holds, yet is no selection £ = 0. We effect and £ > 0, and another conclude that selection is neither necessary nor sufficient to obtain an aggregate price level that, for a given frequency of price adjustments, responds more to monetary shocks than the corresponding Calvo model. 6 The Final Remarks recent work of Golosov and Lucas (2006), Burstein (2006), Klenow and Krystow Midrigan (2006), Gertler and Leahy (2006), and others has rekindled the cost type models. As with many microeconomic variables, the prices of interest in menu goods and services are seldom adjusted continuously. However, the implications of microeconomic inaction 23 (2005), for the stickiness of the aggregate price level to important but specific examples. is only gradually being understood, usually restricted In this article we have tried to take a step further in describing the conceptual issues involved in the connection between the frequency of price adjustments and aggregate price The contributions flexibility in generalized Ss models. of this paper are pedagogical in nature. In particular, we clarified the source of the Caplin and Spulber (1987) neutrality result, which does not rely on the aggregation process bwt on the particulars of microeconomic adjustment in that model. also showed that the reason from an extensive margin whifch is for the additional flexibility of This effect. effect is distinct We Ss over Calvo type models comes from the so-called "selection effect," neither necessary nor sufficient for the additional flexibility. The models we analyzed were intended ment, not to offer to isolate a particular feature of discrete adjust- an account of observed price For that, the mechanisms we stickiness. discussed need to be interacted with a variety of other sources of stickiness (Ball and Romer, On 1990). this account, the recent Nakamura and work by, e.g., Carvalho (2007), Gorodichenko (2006), Steinsson (2006b), Dotsey and King (2005) and Kleshchelski and Vincent (2007) seem particularly promising. Moreover, in the main text we focused on increasing hazard models, but the results we derived also provide a hint on what kind of models are likely to generate substantial price rigidity: These are models with a negative extensive margin Kehoe and Midrigan effect. (2007) provide one such example, where the option to implement temporary sales effectively generates a decreasing hazard model for small deviations x. This feature is quantitatively important since the cross section distribution accumulates a large number of agents values of x, thus it is perfectly possible to generate an our perspective, however, is that one can still f < for small The important message from 0. understand the workings of their model with our framework. Finally, it should be apparent that there are properties about contexts where prices is just one application. is nothing specific to prices lumpy microeconomic adjustment At the microeconomic level, paper. in nature and hence results. These prevalent, of which many other important the essentials of the model in this ^^ ^'For a recent application to investment see, is fit is our investment decisions, durable purchases, hiring and firing decisions, inventory accumulation, and economic variables are lumpy in significantly less e.g., Bachmann et al 2006. than one and time varying, with a substantial 24 rise There we argue that during the late 1990s. in the US T References [1] Bachmann, R., R.J. Caballero and E.M.R.A. Engel (2006). "Lumpy Investment namic General Equilibrium," NBER Working Paper No. 12336. Ball, L. [3] Bar-Ilan, A. of [5] and A. Blinder (1992). "Consumer Durables: Evidence on the Optimality Usually Doing Nothing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 24, 258-272. Barro, R.J. (1972). "A Theory of Monopolistic Price Adjustment" Review of Studies 39, 17-26. Bils, M. and Economic Klenov (2004). "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky P.J. Journal of Political [6] Dy- and D. Romer (1990). 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Introduction to Ergodic Theory, Springer- Verlag. 26 Appendix: Formal Proofs Proposition adjusters. at Al (The Case with Discontinuities) Denote T f{x) the cross-section of price imbalances, ard, Assume that xA{x)f{x) discontinuous at x^ is by A{x) the adjustment haz- the flexibility index < < X2 and < A the fraction of Xn, with a jump D^ Xfc.- D,^x,{A{xt)f{xt)-A{x^)f{x^)], where f{x'^) and f{x'^) denote the limit of f{x) when x approaches Xk from the right (larger values than Xk) and left, respectively. Also assume lim,^^±ooxA{x)f{x) = 0. We then have: A{x)f{x)dx, 00 " J^ =A+ /•oo ^Dk+ xA'{x)f{x)dx. / fc=i Proof Ai = The expression (xi_i,Xj), change i = for A l,2...,n+ in the price level is 1; To straightforward. = —00 with xq and A {x = Xr,+i 00. bj' J^, denote Apo(ii) the rXi+v -^^ - v)A{x -v)f{x)dx = {x - v)A{x -v)f{x)dx. basic result from calculus (Leibniz's formula) states that differentiable Denoting due to a monetary shock v we have: "+! / derive the expression for if a{v), b{v) (24) and g{x,v) are and rb{v) G{v) = g{x,v)dx, / Ja(v) i{v) then G\v) = g{b{v),v)b'{v) - g{a{v),v)a'{v) + f " Ja{v) Applying this result to calculate the differentiating w.r.t. v and evaluating n + at v = 1 integrals in the 71+1 the the r.h.s. of (24), „xi ^=-5]{x,A(x-)/(x-)-x,_iA(x.+_:)/(.T+_i)}+E / we assumed sum of the jumps sum on 0: n+l Since ^ix,v)dx. C^ [Mx) + xA'{x)]fix)dx. \u-nx^±oo xA{x) f (x) = 0, the first sum on the r.h.s. of (25) of xA{x)f{x). The expression for J^ now follows. 27 is (25) ec^ual to Corollary Al If the assumptions of Proposition and positive when x^ > 0, as negative when Xk < 1 hold and K{x^)f{x^) the case for is — A{Xf. )f{Xf. ) is most Ss-type models, then T>A. Corollary A 2 (Caplin and Spulber) To obtain a discrete-time approximation to the Caplin and Spulber model, we consider f{x) uniform on {s — S — ji, —jj], since the relevant crosssection place. is the one after the aggregate shock (of size n), immediately before adjustments take We also assume A(x) = if x e then implies that: {s - S,0) and A{x) = ^cs^l^^ o 1 otherwise. Proposition A 1 (26) s uniform distribution on the inaction range is only an approximation to the ergodic density in discrete time. This explains why we obtain even more flexibility than in Of course, a the continuous time case. If we adapt (15) to discrete time, we have: ^ and we obtain (26) letting A -^ ' 0. 28 3521 7 ga(S-s) _ ' I Date Due Lib-26-67