AST 101
A Test of Astrology
Spring 2013 Results
Ari
Tau
Gem
Cnc
Leo
Vir
Lib
Sco
Sgr
Cap
Aqr
Psc
all
Ari Tau
2
0
0
1
0
0
2
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
6
3
Gem Cnc
2
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
5
2
Response Grid
Leo Vir Lib Sco Sgr Cap
2
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
4
6
3
6
4
3
Aqr Psc hits
1
1
2/9
0
2
1/6
0
1
0/3
0
1
1/7
0
0
0/6
0
1
0/1
0
0
0/2
1
0
0/2
0
1
0/5
0
0
0/4
0
0
0/3
0
0
0/3
2
7 4/51
This grid shows which sign people picked as a function of their true Sun sign. The distribution of values is a close to a Poisson distribution, as expected if the answers were selected
by chance. There were 51 responses.
There were 4 correct selections. We would have expected 4 by chance alone, because
random guessing will be correct in 1 of every 12 cases. The likelihood of getting 12 or more
correct by chance is 62%. This is not statistically significant; in fact, it is expected by chance.
Ari
Ari
10
Tau
1
Gem 4
Cnc
4
Leo
6
Vir
3
Lib
5
Sco
6
Sgr
1
Cap
0
Aqr
4
Psc
1
all
Tau
1
6
3
4
8
2
2
5
1
3
1
4
Summed Response Grid
Gem Cnc Leo Vir Lib Sco Sgr Cap
4
2
4
4
8
6
4
4
3
2
4
6
3
7
4
2
11
7
7
2
5
5
5
1
6
12
7
10
5
1
6
2
4
3
9
5
3
6
10
3
4
4
2
15
9
3
8
1
3
3
5
6
12
5
7
1
3
3
7
0
7
6
3
5
7
5
5
7
6
12
7
2
3
2
2
4
2
4
2
2
4
1
2
7
1
3
10
1
2
4
3
5
5
5
5
3
Aqr
4
2
2
0
4
1
4
3
4
1
1
1
Psc
5
4
8
10
5
2
5
3
9
4
7
7
hits
10/54
6/44
11/59
11/66
9/68
15/53
12/57
6/50
7/67
2/30
2/43
7/44
98/635
This is the result of summing the results of the sun sign test distributed in 6 AST 101
classes, and one Astronomy open night.
This grid shows which sign people picked as a function of their true Sun sign. The distribution of values is a close to a Poisson distribution, as expected if the answers were selected
by chance. There have been 635 responses.
There have been correct selections. We would have expected 53 by chance alone, because
random guessing will be correct in 1 of every 12 cases. The likelihood of getting 98 or more
correct by chance is 3×10−9 . This is very statistically significant.
Nonetheless, one can ask: Is sun sign astrology predictive?
• 15.4% selected their correct sign, and 84.6% did not.
• 8.3% of the selections are due to chance, so about 1 in 14 (7.0%) of the respondents were
able to select their true sun sign.
Disclaimer:
The descriptions of the Sun sign were from taken from http://www.astrology.net, and have
been edited for brevity and to remove obvious key words that might give away the signs.
Nonetheless, persons who regularly read horoscopes will be able to recognize the descriptions,
and will have a significantly better than random chance of selecting their sun sign.