Stand level impacts of Ips and Dendroctonus bark beetles in pine forest types of Northern Arizona Joel McMillin1, John Anhold1, Neil Cobb2, Jose Negrón3, Jesse Anderson2 1USFS Region 3 FHP, Flagstaff, AZ; 2MPCER, NAU, Flagstaff, AZ; 3USFS RMRS, Ft. Collins, CO INTRODUCTION METHODS OBJECTIVES Record low precipitation, increased temperatures, and dense forests have led to tremendous bark beetle incidence across the Southwest. Aerial Detection Surveys detected bark beetle activity on more than 2 million acres, killing more than 20 million pine trees in Arizona during 2002 and 2003 (Figures 1 & 2). The extent and severity of this mortality, and site factors contributing to mortality, remain undetermined at the Forest and stand level. This information is needed to accurately describe ecosystem changes that are occurring and to develop predictive models for future disturbance events. 1. Quantify stand level impacts of bark beetles on ponderosa and piňon pine ecosystems in Arizona’s National Forests. 1. GIS maps used to determine plot location on 5 National Forests (Figures 3 & 4 show Coconino NF). Coconino, Kaibab & Prescott NF’s completed 2003. Tonto and Apache-Sitgreaves NF’s completed 2004. All plots on all Forests will be revisited in 2005. 2. Describe the forest and site conditions that have experienced tree mortality caused by drought and bark beetles. 2. Single (measures extent of outbreaks) and three plot clusters (stand level impacts) installed. Plots are 1/20th acre fixed radius (Figure 5). 3. Determine correlations between stand and site conditions and pine mortality. 3. Mensurational (tree size, density and damages) and regeneration (species and abundance) data collected from plots. 4. Bark beetle-attacked trees tallied in 1-ac swath between plot centers. September 20, 2003 North of San Francisco Peaks May 17, 2003 North of San Francisco Peaks Bark Beetle Activity in Ponderosa Pine and Pinyon Pine (2003 Aerial Detection Survey) Bark Beetle Plots in Pinyon Pine Forest Type, Coconino National Forest # S $ T TS# $ T S# $ TS# $ T $ # S # S # S T $ T $ # S # S # S # S T $$ T # S Figure 3. Plots installed within a 3 mile grid over pinyon pine stands. T $ # S T $ TS#S# S# $ T $ # S # S # S T$ $ T T $ # S T $ # S TS# T$ $ T $ # S T S# $ # S $ T T $ # S T $ # S T $ T $ # S # S August 21, 2002 Horsethief Basin, Prescott NF March 6, 2002 Horsethief Basin, Prescott NF # S # S T $ # T $ #S S T $ T $ # S T $ T $ $$ T T # S T $ # S T $ T $ $# T S T $ # S # S T $ T$ $ T S# T $ # #S S # S Bark Beetle Plots in Ponderosa Pine Forest Type Coconino National Forest # S T $ # S $$ T T Tri-cluster Plots Single Plots Bark Beetle Activity 2002/2003 Pinyon Pine Range RESULTS T $ Figure 4. Plots installed within a 3 mile grid over ponderosa pine stands. 2. 401 plots were revisited in 2005 on the Prescott, Kaibab & Coconino NF’s. T $ # S # S # S T $ T $ # S # S T $ # S T $ T $ T $ # S # S T $ # S # S #$ S T # S # S # T $ S TS# $ TT $ # S #$ S TS# $ T $ T $ T $ T $ T $ T $ T $ # S T $ T $ # S # S # S $ TT $ # S $ T T $ # #S S T $ T $ TS# $ # S # $ T T S $ # S TS# $ # S #$ S T T $ TS# $ # S T $ T #$ S 160 1.There have been 402 Pinyon pine and 779 Ponderosa pine plots established on five National Forests in Arizona during 2003 & 2004. # S #$ S T Avg Plot TPA Avg Ponderosa TPA % TPA Ponderosa Killed Avg Plot BA Avg Ponderosa BA % BA Ponderosa Killed # S T $ T S# $ # S # S # S Pinyon Pine Bark Beetle Activity Ponderosa Pine Bark Beetle Activity Pinyon Pine Range Ponderosa Pine Range 180 # S T $ National Forest Boundary Reservation Boundary Figure 1. Bark beetle-caused tree mortality in pinyon (top) and ponderosa (bottom) pine forests in Arizona. Although engraver beetles are infesting most pine species (center-top), western pine beetle (center-bottom) is also contributing to ponderosa pine mortality. T $ T $ # S T $ # S # S 300 # S 140 # S 250 120 # S # S # S # S # $ S T T $ # S T S# $ # S 80 # S TS# $ $ T T $ T $ 200 100 # S T $ T $ # #S S $ T T $ T $ # S # S T $ # S 150 60 3. 2003 & 2004 plot data indicate basal area mortality rates on some Forests as high as 48 percent in pinyon pine and 23 percent in ponderosa pine, Figures 6-9. 50 Ponderosa Pine 45 Pinyon Pine 40 T $ 100 40 # S 22 23 20 5 10 9 15 10 0 ott sc Pre ab ib Ka ... co Co ott sc Pre Figure 6. Ponderosa pine plots on Arizona National Forests showing basal area parameters and percent mortality. 35 ab ib Ka o nin co Co CONCLUSIONS nto To A-S Figure 8. Ponderosa pine plots on Arizona National Forests showing trees per acre parameters and percent mortality. Avg Plot TPA Avg Pinyon TPA % TPA Pinyon Killed Avg Plot BA Avg pinyon BA % BA pinyon Killed 120 21 13 3 0 nto To A-S 30 25 140 80 120 20 100 60 3.Low to mid elevation pine forests were impacted greater than high elevation forests, Figure 10. 48 80 40 10 60 22 5 20 0 0 0 Low Mod High Figure 10. Average percent mortality over all Forests for Ponderosa and Pinyon by at Low (<6000’), Moderate (6001’7000’) and High (>7000’) elevation. ott sc Pre ab ib Ka ... co Co A-S 36 40 14 8 nto To Figure 7. Pinyon pine plots on Arizona National Forests showing basal area parameters and percent mortality. 20 0 ott sc Pre 1.Results will be incorporated into Regional strategic communication plan to provide land managers and the public with better and consistent information. 2.Development of predictive models relating stand and site conditions to bark beetle-caused tree mortality. 160 100 15 Tri-plot Clusters Single Plots Bark Beetle Activity (2002/2003) Ponderosa Pine Range 50 2 0 ab ib Ka o nin co Co A-S 0 nto To Figure 9. Pinyon pine plots on Arizona National Forests showing trees per acre parameters and percent mortality. 4.Overall pinyon woodlands were impacted more severely than ponderosa pine forests. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Forest Health Monitoring Evaluation Monitoring grant INT-EM-03-01 Kelly Barton, Steve McKelvey, Brian Howell, Joleen Atencio, Ally & Atom for field work, data entry and GIS maps