Ml I LIbHAHItb liilllrvrK'. 3 9080 02239 0303 r- V.^i (?>! ", U^ iiuU n p= n ^ u . II '.^'v^ ^ HD28 .M414 r< DEWEY Zio2- ALFRED P. WORKING PAPER SLOAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT Technology and Alliance Strategies for Follower Countries Jong-Tsong Chiang June 1988 WP 21 02-88 MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY 50 MEMORIAL DRIVE CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS 02139 Technology and Alliance Strategies for Follower Countries Jong-Tsong Chiang June 1988 This paper is to appear in WP 2102-88 Technological Forecasting and Social Change. MASSACHUSETrS INSTITUTE OF TCCHNQLOGY NOV 1 4 2000 LIBRARIES Abstract This paper starts with a simplified model and then modifies it with accelerated innovation process, changing comparative advantages and emerging global strategies international trade and to explain the contemporary situations industrial transplantation innovative product or product class, and the countries. assumes new challenges to follower the U.S. as a leading innovator, and examines the historical experiences of Japan (a in induced by a global order to explore the feasible strategies for the follower In countries, this paper follower) of their first follower) and Taiwan (a second catching-up courses. The preliminary conclusions are as follows: (1) will very (2) The follower countries mainly relying on "traditional strategies" likely be unfavorably impacted by the new The concerted national technological cooperative system management international situations. of foreign bases and to accelerate "technological metabolism," as Japan's experience shows, can contribute decisively follower country's rapid progress appropriability of (3) The economic in especially process technology in and on process technology as suggested by Japan's successful locus should not be taken as shown a benefit from innovation. historical priority follower countries. to New emphasis the case of Taiwan. for granted by today's should be placed on product innovation To implement this strategy, the geographical deployment of innovation functions to and the international alliances with innovative countries are crucial to success. (4) Aggressive joint efforts by follower countries, as illustrated by the close connection between Japan and Taiwan, can bring about extra benefit to participants and also shorten their lags forerunners. 1 behind the innovator and Contents I. International Product Life Cycle and Follower Countries •A Simplified Model •Accelerated Innovation Process, Changing Comparative Advantages and Emerging Global Strategies •New Challenge II. The to Follower Countries First Follower's Strategy - Japan's Case •National Technology Transfer and Cooperative •International Management of Supporting Systems and Forward Bases •Effects of Japan's Strategy III. The Second Follower's Strategy - Taiwan's Case •Relative Strength in Technology Imitation and Diffusion •Synergistic Links with Japan and Western Countries •New Threats from Protectionism and Advanced Technologies •New Emphasis on Product Innovation Strategy Notes I. A International Product Life Cycle and Follower Countries ModeP Simplified For simplicity, suppose that a global innovative product which starts a new productive unit^ or a new product class^ appears in the U.S., and all the countries are categorized into three aggregate groups: In (1) the innovator (supposing the U.S. (2) the other (moderately) advanced countries, and (3) the developing countries. in this case), respect to world trade flows and industrial transplantation, the following sequential stages Stage provided 1 : The U.S. initially for is will probably happen: the only producer. Most of Stage greatly 2: products are domestic market, only a small proportion are exported to other advanced countries with and consumption its somewhat of which similar industrial structures. The export from and the export to the the U.S. to other advanced countries expands developing countries begins to increase significantly. Stage 3: Other advanced countries start to produce the products by importing the necessary technology, sometimes accompanied by U.S. capital, or by imitating or developing the technology themselves. These countries also begin to compete with the U.S. for the market in developing countries. Stage 4: Other advanced countries increase the market share developing countries and start to export the products back to the U.S. Meanwhile, the developing countries also begin substitution technology. to implement import and indigenization strategy by importing The U.S. thus in gradually moves its or imitating foreign production bases to these countries with a view to lowering cost and keeping or acquiring local and Other advanced countries also follow international markets. often fall a little Stage this track but behind the U.S. 5: After satisfying their domestic needs, the developing countries begin to pursue export expansion strategy, partly for the sake of foreign exchange, and export countries. Their products their products to the U.S. and other advanced have usually been standardized and might be of lower quality than those the U.S. and other advanced countries presently produce, but most of the time these products are better than those previously exported by the U.S. Figure 1 this simplified roughly depicts the development of the international trade of model. Insert Figure 1 here. Accelerated Innovation Process, Changing Comparative Advantages and Emerging Global Strategies If the product later benefit life cycle is long enough, then most countries economically from the innovation. And if will sooner or the followers can take advantage of the relatively low uncertainty at the later development stages faced by them and concentrate their limited resources on appropriate strategic effectively behind the forerunners might be reduced over time. However, likely that fields, their lag some if the product life cycle is somehow shortened, then it is before the international trade of the former product evolves to stage 4 or 5 (see Figure product class will 1), another new cycle based on a appear and replace the old one. In this new product case the or followers be will in an unfavorable because situation, either deterred export expansion from which foreign exchange import stage of the next cycles, production is or, never transplanted development level will thus if seriously, them. Some earned because for the of the countries below a certain be excluded from the potential economic more frequent prosperity brought about by innovators or pioneers, to more is of the innovations. Conversely, the equipped with strong production capability Including process innovation and productivity -- will -- enjoy relatively more benefit. the recent incorporation of modern information technology In fact, into product and process design and the automation of production in many advanced countries have already exerted such a far-reaching impact as just mentioned. This R&D and new introduction of comparative advantage Another trend can not only shorten the time needed new products and processes, typified by labor cost crucial factor lies in the global strategies adopted by many in but also reduce the many developing emergence of in countries. more comprehensive multi-national corporations. These strategies include the global deployment of the elements of "value chain"^ across country boundaries from the very beginning or at early stages, therefore making the traditional sequential strategy unnecessary any more. The prevalent "triad alliances" Europe and Japan^ are sustainability remains just to among world class corporations well-known examples. Though be seen due in the U.S., their to the potential instability rooted in the possibilities of strategic inconvergence, imbalance of appropriability, incompatibility of blending competition global strategies of this kind countries of many will opportunities. and coorperation, and so forth, no doubt deprive many developing the New Challenge to After Follower Countries World War Two, the diffusion of many major innovations invested during wartime and their incremental evolution contributed dramatically to the prosperity of the Many developing world economy. countries also The optimism greatly improved their originally impoverished situations. thereby involved for non- and less-oil-producing countries lasted many new shock. Nevertheless, from the late 1970s technologies again gave rise economy and technology still many expected that the world some structural lagging countries only dismal prospects, technologies and industries In is It are to undergo passively dependent on the initiatives to hope. promising But the issues as previously described of this century. leave to to until oil if change by the end will very probably these countries are more advanced countries to transfer them and could not take more active cope with the new challenge. order to explore the strategies for the follower countries, the next two parts will examine the experiences of Japan and Taiwan. Japan, once regarded as a follower by many western advanced countries, is now standing out as the world's second largest economic power and threatening technologically even the U.S. - the most innovative country after World War One. Taiwan, once a developing country, has already been categorized into a special group -- "newly industrialized countries (NICs)." For this reason, the development countries may provide some insightful loci of these two lessons for other follower countries. For first simplicity, in their follower catching-up courses Japan can be treated as a and Taiwan as a second follower the U.S., which is still leading the world in relative to the innovator most pioneering fields. - The II. First Follower's Strategy - Japan's Case National Technology Transfer and Cooperative Systems It is obvious that technology import from advanced countries has long been among the highest priorities in Japan's history of modernization. However, Japan's rapid technological progress and economic growth need So far, many reasons control, collectivism, etc., paper to tremendous impetus to further elaboration. administrative guidance, this its explaining Japan's success, including human resource development, have been proposed. And total quality is it not the purpose of review them. According to the author's point of view, one of the few determinants which are extremely important and deserve other countries' special attention is technology transfer and cooperation. this mechanism mechanism the national Its facilitating uniqueness rests on the involves not only policy guidance and resource fact that allocation but also the autonomous, and sometimes coercive, participation and support from many parties with different goals and interests. Figure 2 explicates the historical evolution of Japan's national technology transfer mechanism,^ and Figure 3 abstracts of the major parties concerned.'' shown by Figure 3 was was organized one first It use worth noting that the framework as after the Meiji new government century ago. &3 effective operation of this of imported technology together nation-wide cooperative structure deployed soon Insert Figures 2 The is its here. mechanism makes possible and enhances the indigenous many complementary resources. R&D the great by pooling Based on this foundation, several national technological such as VLSI, biotechnology, successfully in Japan etc., were launched and implemented after the mid-1 970s. ^ efforts outside military, programs, On the contrary, similar aerospace and nuclear areas in the U.S. and several western European countries have faced big difficulties.^ Japan's cooperative framework In fact, is also conducive to the grouping of industrial corporations and integration of "national value chain." the innovation process In many elements where uncertainty of incurs high transaction cost, Japan's clan-like network originated from long-term relationships and mutual trust has its special advantage over many western countries where many independent innovative companies spend relatively fair much more effort in finding appropriate partners, negotiating terms, transfering technology across compartmentedly organizational boundaries, monitoring execution and preventing opportunism. Moreover, Japan's cooperative mechanism also enables better economies of scale its manufacturers and protection from market Therefore, Japan's system greatly contributes to appropriability of economic fluctuations. its members, and accumulating Actually, this greater benefit from innovation by taking concerted actions quickly, absorbing fluctuations and sharing risks interrelated to obtain system also leads to among learning experience "internally." Japan's special strength in process technology. International Management of Supporting Since the Meiji Restoration, Japan has been and Forward Bases diligently managing several eastern Asian countries as bases. The only difference after World its War Two and deliberately supporting and forward is that Japan gave up its several colonies and military imperialism, and had to resort principally to 8 the more implicit economic operation. Japan realizes very deeply that without the so-called "Great Eastern Asian Circle" to back could hardly be optimistic in Guided by unique strategy up, Japan competing with western powers whose threat triggered Japan's nationalism century. it and modernization this national policy, in the late nineteenth Japan has long been adopting a to "accelerate" the international product life cycle. For most other advanced countries, the export of a product usually begins when the domestic market approaches maturity, and the export of technology and capital export of the product approaches maturity. Despite western countries in financial resource usually shortens the when production to foreign countries begins for its lag and technological above cycles by one or two stages, behind the many Japan capability, and moves many production bases to Taiwan, South Korea, etc. as exemplified by several major products In From the 1950s. 1 , if there table, for instance, and the export late Table of transitor radios is it no obvious "boomerang is evident that the domestic market began almost the late 1960s, Japan for the In technology from the U.S., but it effect." at the first same time in the time imported IC immediately subcontracted the assembly to Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea. This strategy aims at moving ahead or at least not later than, western companies, even those from which acquired new technologies. By doing so, Japan tries to attain Japan the following goals: (1) possible (2) It can enter the market early and thereby gain the greatest profit. It can make earlier for international competition. (3) Informal, It can which use of the better and cheaper local ''^ affect the local industrial standards, both formal will very resources likely result in and favoring the connection with of, Japan and (4) fields, and It isolating the can spare its western latecomers. relatively scarce resources for more advanced which can be interpreted as a strategy accelerating "technological industrial metabolism." Insert Table With far less counterparts in 1 here. average direct investment than its western individual foreign projects, Japan's firms successfully established comprehensive networks have most eastern Asian in countries through technical cooperation, subcontraction, purchasing, financial credit arrangements, and supply of key materials, parts and equipments. Moreover, Japan's relative strength in process technology which usually has less externalities than many product innovation designs do also helps encourage its cooperation with some aggressive Asian countries. This fact could be illustrated by the case of the close connection between Japan and Taiwan. Before the oil shock which caused a drastic change structure, Taiwan's imports from total imports. 15% of its Meanwhile, Taiwan's exports total exports. to the U.S. in recent the materials total Japan accounted On to for import cost in more than 40% Japan came to only years has been nearly 40% of Taiwan's about total exports, cost of the exported products. Furthermore, according to about 40 its the other hand, although the share of exports and parts purchased from Japan usually amount unofficial estimate, of to 60% of the to 40% of the some export orders by value received by Taiwan are controlled directly or indirectly by Japanese-owned companies. be found in In effect, similar or even more "severe" situations could also South Korea and several other Asian countries. Therefore, 10 to a considerable extent, these countries have become Japan's "satellite" production and indirect export bases. Effects of Japan's Strategy Japan's national technological cooperative framework as described above has the effect simplified of moving the Japan's curve model (see Figure international strategy of Japan's and its 1) - to the managing -- left. foreign the second one However, Is It in the Japan's bases that moves both the follower countries' curves to the left and makes Japan and these countries gain relatively more economic benefit than otherwise could be expected. This example highlights the possibility of creating extra benefit by joint forces of followers elements integration of though Japan in this follower countries III. among whom some of "international value chain" case may enjoy the may fall lion's close vertical can take place, share of the profit and its much dependency on Japan. into too The Second Follower's Strategy - Taiwan's Case Technology Relative Strength in Supposing that the total benefit of Imitation and Diffusion the adoption of an innovation could be represented by the multiplication of the relative advantage of that innovation and the degree of diffusion,"'^ progress could be attributed at least as second factor as to the high quality much to its special strength in for diffusion of innovation manpower the one. Through several decades' investment and education, Taiwan has established a very favorable infrastructure environment first then Taiwan's remarkable and cultivated a strong to carry out the technological imitation improvement. 11 base and of in Another Taiwan relative strength of industry. This industry owns a large entrepreneurs and workers, even number many machinery lies in its traditional whom of experienced of diligent, do not possess adequately modern hardware and advanced knowledge. Through them many promising technologies, not if beyond Taiwan's potential capability, will very probably be imitated and diffused rapidly and widely using similar or smaller production scales and/or with equivalent or lower product quality. The machinery industry thus supports making of full use many other industries of Taiwan in imported technology through imitation, adaptation and diffusion. '2 Certainly, of import substitution crucial development process Taiwan's government in this and export promotion, and protection domestic industries have also played an important policies some of role. Synergistic Links with Japan and Western Countries Taiwan's close tie with Japan, which is particularly technology and productivity, also gives some similar combined with other indigenous special strength further induced It many western companies to good advantages. This characteristics has move Taiwan more in order significant in to compete sense, Taiwan heavy with Japan. this kind of And cooperation this trend has become recent years especially given the fact that American companies prefer this its thus partly mitigated. many western companies seek Ironically, with is -- bases their production Taiwan. Taiwan's potential vulnerability resulting from dependence on Japan process at to close their production bases a second follower attractiveness to the innovator without the long-time close link -- -- the U.S. with the benefits a in this first 12 lot from many in the U.S. its simplified model. follower -- Japan, this Yet In to extra benefit might not have occurred. New Threats from Protectionism and Advanced Technologies Recent protectionism reacting to the trade deficit in many western countries has forced Japan to refrain from unrestrictively exporting to the U.S. and other countries. This pressure also unfavorably affects the Taiwan and some other export-oriented countries and trading position of Japan's indirect export through them. As a traditional strategy and tried to invest directly in countries which constitute Japan nowadays its principal markets. the most active is result, in Japan has modified those advanced As a matter of fact, creating the "triad alliances." former production and indirect export bases in its some NICs, Its including Taiwan, are thus becoming less desirable. On automation and relative Many advanced of some Taiwan's more traditional production capability. countries can value-added products the production technologies, such as manufacturing systems, have also reduced flexible advantage Still many advanced the other hand, in their more steeply now economically produce many own countries. declining learning curves products, especially those associated with have made the time-consuming high in many new modern information technology, international technology transfer or subcontraction less attractive. Facing these threats, to counterfeit in a variety of products, particularly technology-related fields, in strong responses from government some companies example, the speed in in recent years began information order to sun/ive. These actions incurred some advanced to intervene. Taiwan countries and forced Taiwan's However, taking personal computer as an of imitation, which usually can succeed 1 3 in three to six months announcement after the of a new product in the U.S., and the far lower price, often only one fourth of that of the original brand, also many surprise foreign companies. And, interestingly, this recognition many new again brings orders to Taiwan. This embarrassing dilemma reveals the very unbalanced technological which could be summarized capability of Taiwan, the bottleneck of manpower in some developing into a brief evaluation of high-tech information products as Table 2 shows. Insert Table 2 here. New Emphasis on From above the Taiwan to analysis, the essential strategy for a adopt now This does not mean Product Innovation Strategy that it mean should is to that it upgrade should join the its try second follower like potential for product innovation. major product innovations, but does competition in the earlier stages of some new products or product classes than ever before. Continuing to import well-defined product ideas and produce them, even with advantage in production capability, will very likely some suffocate the allegedly approaching technology innovation era as that in the first Japan's direction part of this paper. In time. future in was analyzed other words, Taiwan cannot follow historical strategy track. in its competitive It has to adjust its development Figure 4 briefly explains this situation. Insert Figure 4 here. However, Taiwan's present environment, which 1 4 facilitates imitation and incremental process improvement, activates product innovation. move its R&D and suggests the to advanced may Some exchange. is Therefore, right some partners functions, just in about to learn addition to the how new process technology still in The recent investment in potential risk, that it one advanced in this deployment to exchange of stories, not to new strategy emphsizing have for its challenge. more internal its special more advanced product to Taiwan cooperation with Philips Co. application specific integrated circuits (ASICs), despite can thus be justified as a reasonable strategy in the helps prevent Taiwan from being excluded from the "triad alliances."^'* 1 5 in mention of innovation mainly rely on US$300,000,000 Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and (Netherlands) manage to international Taiwan presently may in if external acquisition strategies for have been few successful development and the novel sense to to not be so helpful as originally expected, because, even countries, there Taiwan which its seeking difficulty in new businesses as proposed by some researchers countries"'-^ designs. and innovation functions is with appropriate infrastructure. has nothing valuable strength which that to the international alliances, the increasingly prevalent practice of cross-licensing entering same as reason, one feasible strategy this related product design advanced countries As For not the is . Notes 1 A similar model was revised by him Hypothesis in in a Economics and first 1979. New Raymond Vernon raised by in 1 966 and then See Vernon, Raymond, "The Product International Environment," Statistics 41 (4), Cycle Life Oxford Bulletin of 255-267 (1979), and "Sovereignty at Bay: Ten Years After," International Organization (summer, 1981). 2. For productive unit as unit of analysis, see Abernathy, William James Utterback, M., "Patterns of Industrial Innovation," and J. Technology Review 80,41-47(1978). 3. For product class as unit of analysis, see Moor, William Michael L., Readings "Managing Innovation over the Product the in Management of Innovation, Moor, Tushman, Michael 4. L. eds.. 985. In fact William L. and The for The Free Press, New York, New York, the concept of "value chain" can apply to the national and international levels "triad alliances" as this among paper suggests. the U.S., Europe and Japan are discussed example, Ohmae, Kenichi, Triad Power, The Free Press, New This New in, York, York, 1984. is a condensation Transfer 7. Life Cycle," in For the definition and analysis of "business value chain," see Porter, 1 6. and Tushman, Pitman Books, Marshfield, Mass, 1982. Michael, Competitive Advantage, 5. L. (in of Chapter 35 of Saito, Masaru, Technology Japanese), Bunshindor, Tokyo, 1980. For a more detailed discussion, see Chiang, Jong-Tsong, The Formation of Japan's Integrated Strength (in Chinese), Chapters 1 & 7-10, STAG/ITRI, Taipei, Taiwan, 1984. 8. For Japan's VLSI program, see Sakakibara, Kiyonori, "From Imitation Innovation: The Very Large-Scale Integrated Circuit Program," 1 6 MIT to Sloan School Working Paper No. 1490-83. For other national programs, see, for example, Japan Long-Term Credit Bank, Japan's High Technology Industries, Tokyo, 1983. 9. For the difficulties faced by the U.S., see, for example, Horwitch, Mel, "Managing Large-Scale Programs: The Managerial Dilemma," Technology in Society 161-171 (1984). 6, 10. Japan's strategy of accelerated product goals as discussed here are analyzed op. 1 1 cit., Chapter 38, Sec. This model is discussed in 1 2. in more details in first two Saito, Masaru, Chiang, Jong-Tsong, The Industrial in Taiwan (in Chinese), 18-19, Taiwan, 1980. For more detailed analysis, see 13. See, for cycle and the 2. Technology Development and Transfer ITRI, Taipei, life ibid., example, Roberts, Edward Businesses: Selecting Strategies 33-36, B. for and 1 62-1 88 & 239-242. Berry, Charles, "Entering Success," Sloan New Management Review, 3-17 (spring, 1985). 14. This case is analyzed Management and in Chiang, Jong-Tsong, Determinants of of National Technological Programs Implications, unpublished 2nd year paper Doctoral Program, 46-51, July 1987. 1 7 in - Taiwan's Experience MIT Sloan School Net Export Developing Countrios Other Advanced Net Import Countries the Fig. 1. US International Trade Evolution of An Innovative Product Mel j l Era Western Advanced Foreign Subsidiaries in Japan Government R&D Institutes High Education Institutes ^ Countries Before World War Western Advanced Countries Before World War Western Advanced Countries > Private Industries II Foreign Businesses In Japan Government R&D Institutes High Education Institutes Japan's Big Trading Companies Trade Associations — Private Industries I Foreign Subsidiaries in Japan Government R&D Institutes High Education Institutes Japan's Big Trading Companies ^ -> > Developing Countries j ^ Private Industries T After World War Western Advanced Countries — II Foreign Businesses In Japan Government R&D Institutes High Education Institutes Japan's Big Trading Companies Business R&D Departments Private R&D Institutes Technology Transfer Agents Others Developing r^ Countries y r -> Technology Transfer Agents Private Industries d^ Fig. 2. Development of Japan's Technology Transfer Mechanisms >1 o o c X u o Mature Market Self-R&D New -> Market High Technological Risk Technology Leader Japan Low Economic^ Risk' Technology Import Low Technological Risk Process / Focused^ Fig. 4. High ^ Econonnic Taiwan Risk Technology Follower \Product Focused Technology Strategy Mix and Corresponding Situations c 0) E «- = s u — =" c LU S < I- I" £ o i a L. LU c C So e Z 0) E o o CO MAR 20(Jf Date Due Lib-26-67 MITIIBRARIES DUPL 3 9080 02239 0303