Washington State Population and
Employment Data 2010-2030
Implications for Community and Technical
Colleges
June 27, 2014
State Board for Community and Technical
Colleges
1
Population trends and projections for community and
technical college participation:
Highlights
Population growth will be smaller than what occurred in
the preceding 20 year period (1991-2010) with marked
differences in the growth within age groups.
If current college participation rates are maintained,
population growth will mean 10% growth in enrollments
by 2030, substantially less growth than occurred between
1991-2010.
Regional differences for population growth, educational
attainment, race/ethnicity, and limited English.
Future skill requirements needed for employment
demand substantial growth in long certificates and 2 year
degrees.
2
Population change in the coming 20 years will be smaller
than the previous 20 years
Population Change 1991-2010 and 2011-2030
45%
8%
15-19 Years
11%
13%
20-44 Years
1991-2010
15%
12%
15-44 Years
2011-2030
3
High school graduating classes will be smaller than 2010
peak until 2027, when they reach a new peak
4
At current participation rates, headcount will increase 10% over next
20 years, about half the rate during preceding twenty years
Total Headcount Enrollment Growth to 2030
if 2012-13 Participation Rates re Maintained
35,000
30,000
20%
29,806
18%
18%
16%
25,000
14%
11%
20,000
11%
9%
9%
15,000
10,000
12%
12%
10%
10%
8%
8%
8,134
6%
5%
5,911
4%
5,000
3,119
2,815
Northwest
Pierce
3,734
1,961
2,836
2%
1,297
0
0%
Central & East
King
Snohomish
South Sound
Total Headcount Growth Ages 15-65
Southwest
Spokane
Washington
State
% Growth
5
Student headcount growth due to population changes by
age will vary among regions
Headcount Growth (State + Running Start) by Region
if 2013 Participation Rates Are Maintained to 2030
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
Central &
East
King
Northwest
15-19
Pierce
20-24
Snohomish
25-44
45-64
South
Sound
Southwest
Spokane
65+
6
Washingtonians of color are in higher proportions in central
and east regions, King, Snohomish and Pierce counties
Population of Color 15-44 Years
2010 Census
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Central & Northwest Southwest
East
Black/African American
South
Sound
Native American
Spokane
Asian
King
Pacific Islander
Snohomish
Pierce
Two or More Races
Washington
State
Hispanic
7
64% of Washingtonians 18-44 years old have less than an
associate degree
Educational Attainment Populations 18-44 Years
51%
28%
25% 25%
22%
32%
29%
27%
12%
CENTRAL & EAST
NORTHWEST
34%
31%
28%
29%
34%
33%
30% 30% 28%
25%
23%
17%
13%
SOUTHWEST
Less than HS
HS
12%
9%
8%
SPOKANE
KING
PIERCE
Some College,No Degree
27% 28%
11%
SNOHOMISH
36%
30% 29%
28%
28%
24%
12%
12%
SOUTH SOUND
WASHINGTON
STATE
Associate Degree or Higher
8
Adults with limited English most heavily concentrated in
central and east regions, King and Snohomish counties
% Regional Population 18-64
"Speaks English Less Than Very Well"
Statewide-9%
16%
12%
9%
4%
6%
Central and Northwest Southwest
East
4%
South
Sound
6%
3%
Spokane
King
Snohomish
Pierce
9
To meet demand for certificates and degrees, CTCs must complete 46,000 -55,200
students every year by 2021. Target increases substantially in 2025, again in 2030
2016-21*
2025**
2030**
100,856 – 129,526
148,800
177,000
Mid-level Completions Needed
55,532 – 66,049
78,500
90,000
Total CTC System Completions
46,105- 54,836
65,200
77,600
34%
59%
Total Annual Completions Needed
for Post Secondary
Growth over 2016 average of range
*This is from 2013 A Skilled and Educated Workforce (Joint Report). The low range is the entry
education level (BLS) and the high is the competitive education level (ACS).
**Extrapolated by SBCTC staff from 2021 going forward.
10
Some Implications for community and technical colleges
• Slower enrollment growth, especially among new high
school graduates. Impact on degree production goals?
• Most growth by people of color and 35-44 year olds.
Impact on outreach and access strategies?
• Growing gap between employment demand and CTC
supply (10% enrollment growth, 59% employment
growth). Can’t meet economic demand with
population growth. Improve access for people of
color, placebound, working adults without college
credentials, people who are not college ready?
• More older students. Focus on acceleration and
competencies?
11
Some Implications for community and technical colleges
• Greatest growth needed in basic skills and workforce
training. Impact on funding?
• More completions needed. Focus on early
interventions, student retention and completions?
• Enrollment accountability or student achievement
accountability?
• Rising cost of college. What can we do to reduce
costs? Dual credit, open textbooks, eLearning,
acceleration?
• Transitions are key.
12