Oewey HD28 .M414 no. ls'^^- iH'2h ;035 ALFRED P. WORKING PAPER SLOAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT /information structures and viable price systems / by Chi-fu Huang* January 1985; Revised - September 1985 Forthcoming in Journal of Mathematical Economics WP //1574-84 MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY 50 MEMORIAL DRIVE CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS 02139 / INFORMATION STRUCTURES AND VIABLE PRICE SYSTEMS by Chi-fu Huang* January 1985; Revised - September 1985 Forthcoming in Journal of Mathematical Economics WP #1574-84 would like to thank David Kreps for helpful conversations and Terry Marsh Also, for discussion on the evidence of the efficient market hypothesis. suggestions by two anonymous referees were helpful. * I MJ.T. IJ3RARaE:$ SEP 2 4 1985 Abstract A dynamic model time that is of capital/financial markets not foretellable. We show that if is developed. A surprise is a stopping agents' preferences exhibit a kind of time complementarity, then between ex-dividend dates a viabie price system can make discrete changes only at surprises. Under the same preference condition, when the information the economy can be modeled by a Brownian motion, a viable price system between ex-dividend dates. The martingale originated by Harrison and Kreps (1979) result is is is in an Ito process characterization of a viable price system extended to our economy. This martingale independent of the time complementarity of preferences alluded to above. Introduction 1. Much work of the empirical economics and accounting concerns the response of in financial The capital/financial asset prices to information. null hypothesis in this work is capital/financial markets are efficient in the sense that prices rapidly adjust to The evidence surprises. Fama (e.g. typically that the new information to date has been largely interpreted as confirmation of this null hypothesis (1970) and Patell and Wolfson (1984)T^ The construction of, and hence this interpreta- tion of, the market efficiency tests has often been justified on intuitive grounds; for example, stock price of a takeover candidate of the takeover, stockholders are them by or surprise (see Jensen and is found to make big changes if the response to the announcement in assumed to react to the information and the announcement takes Ruback (1983) for a survey of the empirical works on the market for corporate control). To market justify the intuitive interpretation of capital/financial markets. Is To answer or surprises! it true that prices can this question, considers a continuous time only at two dates, and 1. Huang is revealed. A first generalized to surprise is accommodate consumption is to the is [0,1], first paper in that direction. where consumption is available i.e. determined by the way not predictable. is A price system can surprises. what extent can the over time. Intuitively, if for long-lived assets results of Huang (1985) be agents' consumption preferences can have jumps even at times of economic grounds, we expect agents' consumption preferences to exhibit some sort of time complementarity: a unit of consumption now should be almost it (1985) a stopping time that question this paper addresses On new information or surprises will have to be mathematically for long-lived assets are solely change drastically over time, then the prices no surprise. of Using a long-lived asset as the numeraire, he shows that the sample have jumps only at non-predictable stopping times, The we need a dynamic model discrete changes only at economy with a time span path properties of a viable price system information make new information defined and their linkage to prices formalized. He efficiency test, perfect substitutes. With now and a this kind of unit of consumption an instant from time complementarity of consumption, can be shown that between lump-sum (random) ex-dividend dates prices for long-lived assets can make discrete changes only at non-predictable stopping times. dates, prices adjust downward by the amount At lump-sum (random) ex-dividend of the dividends only when there are no surprises at that time. For more than a decade financial theorists have been led to believe that Ito process representation of price processes is a good model for capital/financial markets not only because the tools involved are well-developed, but because the sample paths of an Ito process resemble the price 'Several anomalous and apparently persistent departures from the null must be explained in terms of test design to sustain June/September, 1978, issue of the Journal of Financial Economics). this conclusion (see, for discussion, the common chart of a typical time, a typical common stock between (lump-sum) ex-dividend dates. stock price moves up and down fast and in That is, most for of the small steps. Given that we have formulated a dynamic asset trading model, the second question addressed in this paper is under what conditions will a viable price system be an dividend dates. Sufficient conditions are that the information Brownian motion and that agents' preferences exhibit the in the between ex- Ito process economy can be modeled by a sort of time complementarity alluded to above. Note that Huang (1985) has demonstrated the relationship between a Brownian motion formation and Ito process representation of a viable price system. long-lived asset. The result reported here in units of the is His result is numerated in- in a natural numeraire, the single consump- tion commodity. We also generalize the martingale result originated by Harrison and Kreps our economy. A price system for long-lived assets is viable if and only if it of dividend process, both measure which ity (1979) in the context and its accumulated a long-lived asset, follow a martingale under some probabil- in units of uniformly absolutely continuous with respect to agents' commonly endowed is probability. This generalization is valid in a very general economy without the sort of time com- plementarity needed for previously mentioned results. The paper rest of this are in Sections 3 through 2. is organized as follows. Section 2 formulates the economy. Main results Section 6 contains discussions and concluding remarks. 5. The formulation In this section Taken [0,1]. we model a dynamic pure exchange economy under uncertainty with a time span as primitive is a filtered probability space (n,7,F,P), where each u E fl denotes a complete description of the exogenous uncertain environment, where Jis the tribe of distinguishable events, where the SltratioD,'^ F = { J,; i 6 [0, l]}, is agents, and where P We satisfies the usual conditions: assume that F 1 We will now that any t = [t There G also is € common the right-continuous: V< 2 complete: V< at is G [0, 1), 7t [0, 1], Ti = contains As>f all G J^, s [0, 1]; the P-null sets. Mathematically, these entail that only one perishable consumption commodity We otherwise mentioned.) is structure of impose the conditions that agents learn the true state of the nature at time 0) is certain. [0, 1]. fihration commonly endowed information probability measure on (H, 7) held by agents in the economy. in 7\ = 7 and that Jo is almost 1 and trivial. the economy which can be consumed take the commodity space to be the space of integrable variation processes V that have right continuous paths, denoted by *A the By definition, for each an increasing family of siibtribes of 7. i' . G (All the processes will V we have: be adapted to F unless < dv[t) (/ I where E{) denotes the expectation with respect to P. denotes the accumulated consumption from time oo, (2.1) The intended to time interpretation of nonnegative integrable increasing processes that have right continuous paths. is a generating cone of It is V and we denote the order defined with respect to assumed that the spot market Remark Thus V is 2.1. Since Remark is right continuous (for right continuous with each v RCLL a space of €V consumption good for the 2.2. It is easily checked that eV v ii Before proceeding, some definitions are is it open that V+ by >. all the time. it has left limits. processes. left limits) < e oo Vf [0, l]. Let A' be the space of in order. the space It is clear and of bounded variation, then E{v{t)) that v{u!,t) V+ denote Let in state u. t is RCLL processes such that ess sup^^_, I where the essential supremum is x{u!,t) \< oo, taken with respect to the probability measure P. nonnegative elements of A' by A'+, the positive cone of A'. The order on denoted by >. Let A'++ be a subset of A'+ satisfying the following: such that P{x{t) > c} c ?£ Now = 1 V^ consider the bilinear form G tp V'(u, Proposition A.l in Appendix be the strongest topology on Vj- We denote the A' generated by A^ A'++ there exists €. c is also 6 9f+, [0, 1]. : V a:) x X >-^ ^. =E I shows that ip V such that its separates points, and places topological dual is A', V and A' Let r in duality. a Mackey topology; cf. Schaefer (1980, p.l31). Returning to economics, we shall assume that the economy set A, a generic element of which function f/^ : V t-^- 9i that the sense that UQ{v+y) Ua 7a e at V, which is -X'++ such that denoted by a. Each agent a G zero. Formally, let y ^ 0. We also A is characterized by a utility of ^x E dUa{v). is in utilities set of r-continuous supergradients Holmes (1975). V ^ > 7a assume that Ua has marginal dUa{v) denote the nonempty by Theorem 14B Vv G populated with agents from a concave, r-continuous, and strictly increasing, the last of which > Ua{v) Vy G V+ and bounded below away from of is is is We assume that there exists Remark An example 2.3. tion having marginal utilities of a r-continuous, strictly increasing, bounded below away from zero assumed that there are a finite number = are indexed by j Each long-lived security 0,1, 2,..., J. holder of a share of security j, from time shall assume that Do{t) assume that Dj{0) = G V< [0, 1) = Vj = 1,2, . . , . bounded above and below away from to time has received during that period /, and that Dq{\) semimartingales^ denoted by = S = curities 5, . . . , zero. e V+, in state ui. bounded above and below away from Thus without loss of generality, we also A consumption plan is = 0,1,..., J}. is an RCLL process an element of V. is a J -|- 1-vector of integrable Since these securities are traded ex- Vj. for the single an admissible trading strategy J} = J. {Sj{t)\j Given admissible price systems 0, 1, is admissible price system for traded long-lived securities dividends, Sj{l) ^, U{v) the consumption commodity, that a admissible price process for the single consumption commodity {I3{t)) An i-^ represented by an element Dj is in units of zero. All the long-lived securities are traded ex-dividends. An V : of long-lived securities traded in the economy, which where Dj{u.\t) denotes the accumulated dividends, We U given by utility func- where x G A'++. -^(/(o.iJ^COc'i'lO). It is is and concave is consumption commodity /9 and for long-lived se- an J-f l-vector of predictable processes'* 9 = {9j{t)\j = satisfying the following conditions: 1 ess supj^^,t I where as before the 2 there exists v e{tfs{t) gV, essential v{0) supremum =0 such is 6j{u!,t) \< oo, (2.2) taken with respect to P; that = (2.3) e(0)'^S{0)+ f e{sfdS{s)+ Jo [ 0{s)e{s)^dD{s)- f Jo /3{s)dv{s) V/G[0,1] a.s. Jo and e(l)^AZ)(l) = Ai;(l) a.s., (2.4) where ^ denotes inner product, and where AD{() and Av{t) denote the jumps f, D and v at respectively. Equations tion. of (2.3) The budget and (2.4) are the natural budget constraints, while constraints can best be understood when 6 is left (2.2) is a technical restric- continuous. In that case, we 'For the definition of a semimartingale see Jacod (1979, p. 29). It is also shown there that for stoctiastic integ^rals to be well-defined and have nice properties it is necessary that the integrators be semimartingales; Jacod (1979, pp. 27S-279). *For the definition of a predictable process see Jacod (1979, 4 p. 4). interpret 6{t) to be the portfolio held from t— to is the value at time and before time t < t before time of a portfolio carried from t— into trading and consumption. That it is t, trading takes place. t Thus 6{t)'^ S{t) excluding dividends received at time equal to the right-hand-side of (2.3) is t clear. Let S[^,S] denote the space of admissible trading strategies with respect to the pair of admissible price systems {/3,5). easily checked that 0[/?,5] It is a linear space by the linearity of is stochastic integrals. In relations (2.3) that the strategy 6 if and is (2.4), the process v e A consumption plan A price of v at time e[/?,5]. consumption plans. By the Remark 2.4. Since 6 t; V € is G is + A/ is — v M v{0) aE if it A &V {veV : such that Vq /?(0)u(0) Note that the definition + is of viability is = in (2.3) are VIII) for details. the numeraire f/a-maximal 6»(0)'^5(0) financed by some a linear space. can be supported by some agent from the set A. Formally, and Va is be the space of marketed Following Kreps (1981) we shall say that a pair of price systems {l3,S) to A) meaning obviously and bounded, the stochastic integrals Meyer (1982, Chapter is if Let 6'(0)"^5(0). a linear space, 6[/?, 5] is predictable when the consumption good marketed said to be l3{0)v{0) is fact that Q[/3,S] well defined. See Dellacherie and 3. Viability said to be financed by 6, followed, a consumption pattern represented by v can be dynamically manufactured. e is in {/S, S) is is viable (with respect viable if there exists the set and u is financed by 9 for taken as primitive in this some paper. The d G 6(^,5]}. readers are referred to Kreps' paper for a host of related issues. In this section we shall give characterizations of a viable pair of price systems, consumption commodity process is is where the single taken to be the numeraire. In this case, the consumption good price unit throughout, and we shall refer to a viabie price system as a viable price system for the long-lived securities. A necessary condition for a price system to be viable for all the marketed consumption plans. is that the single price law must hold In such event, there exists a linear functional that gives prices at time zero of marketed consumption plans; that 6(0)^5(0), where A and V (m - m{0),6) are associated. r-continuous linear functional ^ 0. t/' : T We call tt i—* 9f is said to is, Vm G M, 7r(m) the current price system for be strictly positive if tt tp{v) : = M i—> 3? m(0) + M. > Vv E V+ . Proposition 3.1. Suppose that S is is strictly positive, r- continuous, viable. Tlien n has an extension to ofV denoted by t/), which and can be represented as ii{v)^E\[ VuGV, x{t)dv[t)\ V-Mo,il with X all (3.1) ) € A'++ Proof. This assertion is a direct consequence of the definition of viability. I The linear functional of (3.1) not only gives prices at time zero for plans, but also provides a We way to represent a viable price system over time. assume throughout shall Proposition 3.2. For every j = marketed consumption S this section that 0, 1, . . . , viable. is J, we have E[!lx{s)dD,[s)\7t) Sjit) = xit) (3.2) E xis)dDAs) E(f:i (/J x{s)dDj{s) I I 7^-j'^x[s)dD,{s) 7t] - fn xis)dD,is) V<g[0, 1], a.s.. x{t) where RCLL versions of the conditional expectations are taken (this to be right continuous; Proof. See Appendix cf. Meyer is possible because F is assumed (1966, pp. 95-96)). II. I If we just the interpret the process {x{t)} to be the marginal utility process, then Proposition 3.2 famous relation: the price of a security at that time of the sum relation underlies time t of products of its future dividends much of the modern is is equal to the conditional expectation at and the ratios of marginal utilities. This asset pricing theories; see, for example, Lucas (1978) and Rubinstein (1976). Remark 3.1. From now on we shall always take an RCLL version of any conditional expectation that appears. Several corollaries are immediate: Corollary 3.1. The process {So{t) + .Do(0} ^^ bounded above and below away from 6 zero. Proof. From Proposition From Proposition 3.1 we know that 3.2 5o(0 = we know that x is V< G [0, 1) E{x{l)Do{l)\7t) -^^ a.s. (3.3) bounded above and below away from then follows from the assumption that Do{\) is zero. The bounded above and below away from assertion zero. I Corollary 3.2. The process {x{t)} Proof. From (3.3) we can is a semimartingale. write g(x(l)Do(l)|7,) '^'^= + Soil) The numerator which is above expression of the bounded away from martingale; zero. Dellacherie and cf. A _ "" ,, ^,^,„ "''^'"''^ Doit) a martingale and the denominator is is a semimartingale, generalization of Ito's formula shows that {x{t)} is a semi- Meyer (1982, Mil. 27). I Let m e M and let {5^(0} denote its vector of semimartingales, a natural question Corollary 3.3. Let Moreover, let m— m is E M. Then {Sm{t)} has m(0) be financed by S,„{t)=^e{tyS{t) whether {5„i(i)} is E The numerator [t] of the a representation as (3.2) + e{tyAD{t)-A{m{t)-7n{0)) [Ii^{s)dm{s) above expression is V< Tij ^ I - € first and is [0, 1] we can a semimartingale. a.s. easily get J^ x{s)dm{s) Vf a semimartingale, since G it is [0, 1] the a bounded variation process. Corollary 3.2 shows that the denominator The a Then 6. = -^ is a semimartingale. Proof. Applying the arguments found in the proof of Proposition 3.2, Srn Given that S implicit ex-dividend price process. a.s. sum is of a martingale and a semimartingale too. assertion then follows from an application of the generalized Ito's formula. The second assertion follows from the fact that S is viable. I When a price system is viable, we have stochastic integral representations for it. Moreover, the implicit ex-dividend price process for any marketed consumption plan and the shadow price process {x{t)} are semimartingales. 4. Changing numeraire and martingales We show shall in this section that if a numeraire appropriately chosen, then the viability of is a price system for long-lived securities necessitates that 5, the price system, plus dividend process, both (n, 7), which some is if the numeraire, is accumulated a martingale under a probability measure on The converse uniformly absolutely continuous with respect to P. is also true under regularity condition. Henceforth good in units of its is let (/?,5) denote a pair of admissible price systems when the single consumption is, 0{t) = {f3* ,S*) is the numeraire, that the pair of price systems 1 Vf G viable, [0, 1]. We will first where V< £ show that S is viable if and only [0, 1] and S;it) = Vj p*{t)Sj{l) = 0,l,...,J a.s. (4.1) This could be anticipated. In a Walrasian economy, changing numeraires ought to be economically neutral, since only relative prices are determined. in economies with infinitely many commodities. We This statement will is not, however, always true need to employ some special structures of our model. We first show that (/9*,5*) Proposition 4.1. (/3*,5*) is is a pair of admissible price systems a pair of admissible price systems if if and only and only if (/?, 5") if {/3,S) is is. a pair of admissible price systems. Proof. Suppose first that (/3,5) is a pair of admissible price systems. The fact that above and below away from zero and therefore admissible follows from Corollary of the generalized Ito's formula that S* is fact that shows that 0* is a semimartingale. a semimartingale. Finally, the fact that S* /3* is 3.1. /?* An The same formula is bounded application also implies integrable follows from the above-proven bounded above. is The proof for the converse is identical, so we omit it. I Let 0[/?*,5*] be the space of admissible trading strategies given that the pair of admissible price systems The is (/9*,5*). following proposition shows that the two spaces &[/3* ,S*] and ©[/?, S] are equal. Its proof, being tedious and involving a lot of machinery in stochastic integration, is delegated to Appendix III. Proposition 4.2. {13, S) if and only e &[0,S] if it is if and only if 6 £ 6[/3*,5*]. Moreover, v financed by 9 given (/?*,5*). - v{0) is financed by 9 given , . M* Let denote the space of marketed consumption plans given (^*,5*). A corollary is imme- diate. mE Corollary 4.1. Proof. This M if and only if me i\/*. = a direct consequence of the fact that 0[/?, 5] is 0[/?*,5*]. I We The (/?, S) M to denote both M and M* shall henceforth use following proposition shows that (/?*,5*) a pair of viable price systems is if and only if one. is Proposition 4.3. {l3* The price systems. ,S*) a pair of viable price systenis is if and only if (/?,5) is a pair of viable two pairs of viable price systems, n and n* linear functionals associated with that give the prices at time zero of marketed consumption plans are linked by Proof. is Suppose ?7Q-maximal {vEV By Proposition that first (/?, in the set : /3{0)v{0) 4.2 + 5) is viable. e{0)'^S{0) and the fact that There must = (3{t) exist and v - v{0) = 1 e Vi is [0,1], some a E financed by A and Va E some E we know the above V such that Va e[/3,5]}. set is equal to the following set: {vEV Therefore, Vq is : (3*{0)v{0) is still + e(0)^5*(0) i/Q-maximal in = and the above i- - set. v(0) is By the financed by some 6 E e[l3\S*]}. definition of viability, the pair (/?*,5*) viable. The proof for the converse The proof for the rest of the assertion It will this main be demonstrated result, in is identical. is easy. the sequel that 5* we need a proposition and is closely related to martingales. Before proving its corollary. Putting v*{t)^ I ^'{s)dv{s) WtE{0,llvEV, J[o,t] and denoting the implicit ex-dividend price process of m€ Af given (/?*,5*) by 5^, we have: — Proposition 4.4. Suppose that the pair {0,S) m Let is viable. G M. There exists x* € A'++ such that ^ E = — E(j.^x*{s)dm*{s) 5;(') I = 7t] ^^ , ^ (/J x*{s)dm*{s) Proof. Since tt* = /3*(0)n, (4-2) X / - ^ I 7,) /o' V<e[0,l], has an extension to it* x*{s)dm*{s) all of V denoted by t/'*- It is a.s. clear that xp* can be chosen to be /?*(O)0: ^*{v) where we Now recall that x € A'^.+ = f3*{0)E is (4.3) putting strictly positive, We VvgT, x{t)dv{t)] [ . = x*(t) a;* I ^x{t) V<G[0,1], bounded above and below away from (4.4) zero. can rewrite (4.3) as V'*(i') =E i x*{t)dv* [ Applying the same arguments to prove Proposition 3.2, it is straightforward to verify (4.2). I The interpretation of (4.2) the consumption commodity. is The identical to that of (3.2), except that the numeraire here following corollary is instrumental to the this section. Corollary 4.2. The process x* defined Proof. We in (4.4) is a martingale under P. note that almost surely D*o{t) = V«g[0, 1) = 1 iit= = i /e[o,i) I and s^{t) = if f = 1 by construction. From Proposition 4.4 we have ^(^*(1)I^<)_5.^(^)^1 x*{t) 10 V«€[0,1) a.s. first is not main theorem of That is, E{x*{l)\7,) Naturally E{x*{l) \ Ti) — = x*{l) a.s. since x* x*{i) is V<€[0, a.s. 1) adapted. These simply say that x* is a martingale. I When appropriately numerated, the shadow price process is not only a semimartingale, it is a P if martingale! Some A definitions are in order. probability Q on (O, 7) dQ/dP the Radon-Nikodym derivative P ?« Q. A martingale measure is said to be uniformly absolutely continuous with respect to is is bounded above and below away from a probability measure is Q Q^P on (H, T) with zero, denoted by such that S* + D* a martingale under Q. Here Theorem is our 4.1. first main theorem of Suppose that S) (/?, + m* measure Q. Moreover, S^ is is this section: Then there a pair of viable price systems. a martingale for all m Proof. It follows from Corollary 4.2 and Dellacherie and exists a martingaie M under Q. G Meyer (1982, VI. 57) that _E[l'x*{s)dm*is)\7t) E[jlx'(l)dm'{s)\7) _ ~ ^) E(x'{l){m*{l)-m'{t))\7t) _ V< € [0, 1] P - a.s. (4.5) x*{t) Next note that E{x*{l)) = 5o(0) = 1. Thus Q{D)= ! if we put x*[^,l)P{du) 'iBe7, JB Q is (4.5) a probability measure on (fi, J) uniformly absolutely continuous with respect to P. Therefore can be written as S*^{t) = E*{m*[\)-m*[t)\7i) where E*{) denotes the expectation under Q\ and Q have the same null sets, cf. Vie [0,1] P- a.s., Gihman and Skorohod the above expression holds with Q (1979, p. 149). Since P probability one. I When the pair of price systems (y9,5) is viable, after an appropriate change of numeraire, the implicit price process for a marketed consumption plan plus its accumulated dividends will be a martingale under some probability uniformly absolutely continuous with respect to P. 11 Remark 4.1. Since almost surely P Q and have the same null for both, unless otherwise sets, we a.s. to denote mentioned. Their proofs being straightforward, the following corollaries Corollary 4.3. S* from now on use shall will simply be stated. a vector of supermartingales under Q. is Corollary 4.4. Let mi, m^ - he such that mj(l) mj(^) = m^il) - rn2{t) a.s. for some t G [0, 1]. Then •^niilO At any time t e — [0, 1], if two marketed consumption Conversely, The a.s. it ^®- ^"^ therefore S^iit) let (/9*,5*) must have the same is first Sm^ii) ^-s. + Do some are equal for price at that time. be a pair of admissible price systems with SqII) following theorem shows that, under proposition = the future accumulated dividends in units of So plans, they suffices that there exists a A •^m^(0 + D^lt) = 1 V/ € [0, 1] regularity condition, for (/?*,5*) to be viable, martingale measure. needed. Let M denote the space of marketed consumption plans given Proposition 4.5. Suppose that there exists a martingale measure E{snp |5;(0l)<oo Q and that vy. <elo,i] Tien the S*^{t) single price law holds for all G i\/* and denoting the ex-dividend price of m at t by we have S*,{t) Proof. Let m m E = E*(^l'0*{s)dm{s)\T^. ©[/3*,S*] be a trading strategy that finances m. (4.6) Then an implicit price process for is 5m(0 = Equations (2.3) e{t)^S*{t) and (2.4) + (3'{t)e{tyAD{t)- l3*{t)A{m{t)-m{0)) ^t e [0,1] then imply that S;^{t)= f /9*(s)dm*(s) - f e{syd{S*{s) 12 + D*{t)) V^€[0,l], a.s. a.s. Given the hypotheses that (/3*,5*) viable and that E'(sup,gro^i] is SUt) | |) < oo, it is easily verified that E*l where E*{) snp \S;{t) the expectation under Q. is The + <oo D;{t)\] Vj, Davis, Burkholder, and Gundy inequality (cf. Jacod (1979, 2.34)) then implies that E*{[S* where {[S* + D* S* + D*]t} , is + D\S* + <oo, D*]i)-^ (4.7) the quadratic variation process of {S*{t) + D*{t)}. (For the definition of the quadratic variation process see Jacod (1979, 2.31).) Equation (4.7) as well as Jacod (1979, 2.48) ensures that E* (^' e{s)^d{S*{s) This + D*{s)) I 7t) = 0. in turn implies S:,{t) which independent of is 9. Thus the = E*^'f3'{s)dm{t)\7ty single price law holds and (4.6) is valid. I Here Theorem is our second main result of this section: 4.2. Suppose that the conditions Proposition 4.5 are vaiid. Then (/?*,5*) in is viable. Proof. Putting .^(0-^(^1//) Vf€[0,l] U.S., we have E* r I I / [ =eI [ 1=^1/ m0*it)dm(t) ai)(3*{t)dm{t) 0*{t)dm{t)] I3*{t)dm(t) VmG I M*, where we have again used Dellacherie and Meyer (1982, VI. 57). From Proposition 4.5 we know that the two sets {veV :^(0)^5*(0) + /3*(0)u(0) =0, where v is financed by some eee[/3*,S*]} and {m&M*:E'l[ are identical. Now ^{t)^*{t)dm{t)] = 0} define Ua{v) = El f at)/3'{t)dv(t (01 13 ^veV. It is quickly checked that a G A, since ^ f3* is bounded above and below away from zero. It then follows from the separating hyperplane theorem that the pair of price systems (/3*,5*) can be supported by Ua and thus is viable. I Whenever the regularity condition posited in Proposition 4.5 martingale measure is The combination equivalent to the viability of (/9*,5*) and therefore the viability of of Theorems 4.1 and 4.2 is is allowed at any time (/?, a 5). a generalization of the martingale result of Harrison and Kreps (1979). They consider an economy where consumption Here, consumption satisfied, the existence of is in [0, 1] available only at two dates. is and agents can consume at rates as well as in gulps. Once we have the martingale characterization to see that the sample path properties of 5*„ depend both over time and upon the sample path properties generalized in a straightforward manner to S^,m e of viable price processes of m*. show the A/, upon the way information Huang All the results of interrelationship among is it is easy revealed (1985) can be 5*,, ni* , and F. We leave this exercise to interested readers. The sample path In the properties of 5^ are not the most interesting objects economy considered by Huang (1985), consumption and time Since the consumption good 1. is not available take a long-lived security as the numeraire. In the economy consumption good is available all the time. The our economy, however. available only at two dates, time is all in the time, we it is thus not unnatural to are currently considering, the single natural objects of interest ought to be the sample path properties of S^- In particular, given the popularity of Ito process formulations of financial markets, we can it is important to see under what conditions see that the depend not only on Sm is an Ito process. sample path properties of the price process its of a in accumulated dividend process and the information structure as captured the sample path properties of a: exhibited by preferences from the the set A. nothing can be said about x except that therefore about now (3.2) marketed consumption plan by the conditional expectation, but also on the sample path properties of embedded Examining Sm,rn e A/, we have it is is x. This is natural, since a sense of time complementarity of consumption Given that viability is defined with respect to A, bounded. To say something interesting about x and to consider a subset of A. turn. 14 This is the subject to which we 5. An alternative formulation Let H ^n-^++- denote a subspace of A' such that each h E Define a bilinear form (/> : V x /f Now identify equivalence classes of elements of and only V is a continuous process.^ Let H+^ = by h^^ 9f = E\ f 4>{v,h) H h{t)dv{t)] such that . belong to an equivalence class ui,t;2 if if <f>[vi-V2,h) Denote the space of equivalence the strongest topology on "l^ = ElJ classes oi such that its V h{t)d{vi{t) M by . Then (p topological dual - V2{t))\ places is "V =0. and H in duality. H, a Mackey topology; Let r* be cf. Schaefer (1980, p. 131). Let A A C he such that each Ua,<y € A agents from the set consumption now is so because the Remark 5.1. is A is Note that the preferences r*-continuous. of exhibit the following sort of time complementarity of consumption: a unit of almost a perfect substitute for a unit consumption an instant from now. This siadow price process continuous. is Note that time-additive utility functions are at adjacent dates are perfect nonsubstitutes; Suppose from now on that S is cf. not r*-continuous, since consumption Huang and Kreps (1983). viable with respect to A. Still denote by M the space of marketed consumption plans. The following proposition can be viewed as a corollary of Proposition Proposition 5.1. Let m e M. E S,nit) Then (/o = -^ {5„,(<)} h{s)dm{s) is J, I 3.2. a semimartiDgale and can be represented as j - -^ /o h{s)dm[s) V< € [0, 1] a.s., where h E H.++ Now we of a among the accumulated dividend process marketed consumption plan, the sample path properties of information A are ready to examine the interrelationship process h is is revealed. continuous Some if for its price process, definitions are in order. almost every ui S Q, h{ij.\ ) 15 is a continuous function of time. and the way A stopping time a is map used the convention that 5) T" n : =/ V< 3Ju {00} such that {T < -*• > 1. A stopping time sequence of stopping times (r„)^i such that r„ sequence of stopping times < T said to foretell T. is a.s. is t} E 7i for all £ t 9?, said to be predictable =T and r„ < T, limr„ where we have if there exists a on {T > 0}. This (For detailed discussion of predictable stopping times see Chapter IV of Dellacherie and Meyer (1978).) The idea of a stopping time is that of the T be more precise, any stopping time can be interpreted as the debut of the set "The existence Dellacherie (1978, IV. 51). cf. time some given random phenomenon occurs. To first of a foretelling sequence {{t^co) means that this t : > T(u.')}; phenomenon cannot take us by surprise: we are forewarned by a succession of precursery signs, of the exact time the phenomenon will occur;" Thus an event whose occurrence first other hand, an event whose Dellacherie and cf. a predictable stopping time is occurrence first Meyer (1978, IV. 72). is is not a surprise. not a predictable stopping time may On the take us by surprise with a strictly positive probability.^ We make the following regularity assumption throughout the rest of this section. Assumption The informatioD 5.1. predictable stopping time and {T„ let structure F }^i is quasi-left continuous. That is, let T be a be any increasing sequence of stopping times foretelling T. Then 00 n=l An information structure satisfying the above assumption discontinuity" by probability theorists. generated by a Markov process Meyer (1963, Theorem The is It is known, for is also termed "having no time of example, that an information structure quasi-left continuous, provided that the semigroup is nice; cf. 10). following proposition shows that the price process of a marketed consumption plan can be discontinuous only at either surprises or lump-sum ex-dividend dates. Proposition 5.2. Suppose that m € M. Let T : H -^ on a set of strictly positive probability, then either T [0, l] is be a stopping time. IfS„,{T) not predictable or ni(T) ^ Sm{T-) ^ m{T—) on a set of strictly positive probability. Proof. Suppose S„i{T—) *More this — Sm{T) is a.s., not true. From Proposition 5.1 and Meyer (1966, VI.T14) we know that a clear contradiction. precisely, a totally inaccessible stopping time is a surprise with probability one. IV. 78) for details. 16 See Dellacherie and Meyer (197 Between (random) lump-sum ex-dividend dates, the price process of a marketed consumption plan can have discrete changes only at non-predictable stopping times, or equivalently, at events that are not foretellable. T n Proposition 5.3. Suppose that : a predictable stopping time. Then i— 9? is 5„.(r)-5„,(r-) = -(m(r)-m(r-)) Proof. When T EU The we know predictable, is VineM. a.s. = h{s)dm{s) \7t) E(f h{s)dm{s) Jr-) \ a.s. assertion then follows immediately from Proposition 5.1. I At lump-sum ex-dividend amount when dates, which can be of the dividends there are no surprises. Before proceeding, a definition Definition 5.1. An random, the price process would drop by the is in order. information structure is said to be continuous if all the stopping times are predictable. Remark 5.2. structure see The For an equivalent definition and extensive discussions of a continuous information Huang following (1985). is a direct consequence of the above definition and Proposition Corollary 5.1. Suppose that F S,n[T) When is is continuous. Then for any stopping time - S„,{T-) = - {m(T) - m[T-)) the information structure dictated by behavior of its its dividend process. price process is is On solely 5.3. T Vm G M. a.s. continuous, the ex-dividend date behavior of a price process the other hand, when a dividend process determined by the way information is is continuous, the revealed. Thus it can be the case that dividends and information work against each other and there won't be price changes at lump-sum ex-dividend dates. For stopping times Ti and T2, the set [TuT2) is called a stochastic interval; The = cf. {(u;,0 e n X [0,1] : Chung and Williams following proposition shows that Ti{oj) < which the dividend process < Tii^o)} (1983, p.29). when the information structure nian motion the price process of a marketed consumption plan interval within t is continuous. 17 is is generated by a Brow- an Ito process in any stochastic Proposition 5.4. Suppose that F < times with {oj,t) E Ti < T2 < 1, is a Brownian motion filtration, that T\,T2 are two stopping G M is a continuous process on [Ti,T2). Then {5„,(u),f); [T'i,T2)} is an Ito process. Proof. First we note that a Brownian tion 5.1.1 of Huang {u>,t) m and that G [Ti,T'2)} {oj,t) {5„i(tc',f); is G bounded variation. (1985). filtration is a continuous information structure; From the hypotheses and Corollary we then know 5.1 Proposi- cf. that {5„, (oo'.f); a continuous semimartingale. By the defining properties of a semimartingale, [Ti,T'2)} can It be written as the sum of a local martingale and a process of follows from Dellacherie and Meyer (1982, VIII. 62) that the local martingale The bounded part can be represented as an Ito integral, therefore continuous. thus also continuous. Hence the price process is representable as the continuous bounded variation process, and by definition is sum variation part of an Ito integral is and a an Ito process. I Huang (1985) has shown in an economy where consumption that a price process can be represented as an Ito integral Brownian for filtration. consumption is The above proposition is is available only at two dates when the information structure a generalization. When agents' when the information structure a continuous process and Brownian motion, the price process between lump-sum ex-dividend dates Since there can be at most a countable of the times, the price process of a The results of this section continuous. erences shadow number of is price process Ito process. (random) lump-sum ex-dividend dates, marketed consumption plan depend largely upon the is for most an Ito process. fact that agents' preferences are r*- This assumption can be defended on economic grounds. The 7*-continuity means that consumption a generated by a be an will is at adjacent dates are almost perfect substitutes, of pref- which captures an intuitively appealing notion of time complementarity of consumption preferences over time. For more discussions on the issues of time complementarity of consumption see Huang and Kreps (1983). 6. Concluding remarks It should be clear that results of Sections 3 and 4 do not depend upon the hypothesis that the time set is continuous. integration signs to be When the time set summation signs. is No any countable subset of [0, 1], we simply change the interesting sample path properties of a viable price system for long-lived securities are available. All of our analyses can be generalized in a straightforward neous beliefs, as manner to accommodate heteroge- long as agents' endowed probability measures are uniformly absolutely continuous with respect to one another. The of agents results in this paper are strongly colored by the assumption that the is the whole space. That is, negative consumption 18 is consumption space allowed. This assumption is crucial in establishing that the current price system marketed consumption plans for r-continuous linear function when a pair of price systems results thereafter. The fact that relaxing this evident from Jones (1984). when What agents' consumption set is sort oi properness of preferences (,9, S) is is viable with respect to A and the assumption may significantly change our results further restriction on A is needed; cf. 19 is needed for our analysis to go through the positive orthant remains an open question. may be representable as a Mas-Colell (1983). It seems that some Appendix Proposition A.l. The bilinear form xl'iv.x) ^ V x A' i— : =E I 3? x{t)dv{t) i separates points. Proof. Let a:i,X2 exist t e € B£ and [0, 1] ^ A' and xi > with P(B) 7t we assume that loss of generality we know that processes, there must such that xi(oj) Without RCLL and X2 are xg. Since xi ^ X2{oj) Voj e B. > X2(w) on B. xi(cj) Define v : 11 x [0, 1] i-^ D? by Then ip{v,xi) - ^p{v,X2) =E - X2(s))dv(s) (xi(s) / V-ao,il [ / = E{{xi{t)-X2(t))lB)>0. Thus V separates points Next v{u>,t) 71^ eV,v ^0. let V Voj in A". Then € Bi. Without there must exist loss of generality € t and Bi e [0, 1] we assume that v{t) Tt - with P{Bi) v{t-) > > such that on Bi. Take the following cases. Case X : n X 1. Suppose that [0, 1] K-. 3? v{u),s) = 2. Suppose that | v{s) - = = ('-',«) almost every for u e Bi. Define • 3. There exists Te e = > jBi - v{t-) Vs G >0- [f, 1] for almost every such that the optional random variable T^ inf{s e[t,l]:e <\ v{s) and ^(^2) > uj E Bi. This is v. where we have used the convention that ^2 e J with B2 C E{lBA^'{i)-'^'it-))) v{t) |> v{t) impossible by the right continuity of Case Isj x[M] and A' and ijiv,x) Case [t,l] by x{u,s) Then x € € v{ui,t) for all s 0. Tf = 00 Define x x{u,s) = : - x [0, 1] h^ 1b,1[<_j^)(w,s). 20 - n 1—» [0,oo] defined 9? by by v{t-)}, the infimum does not exist, if fi v{t) \< v{t) : is finite on some Since [t,T() a stochastic interval, x is Williams (1983, Chapter 2). That is, rp{v,x) is adapted, and by construction x€ A'. = E Chung and cf. x{s)dv{s)] { v{t-)) we have shown that cases, RCLL; Then = E (iBAyiT,) Combining the above three it is > 0. A' separates points in V. I Appendix Proof. Consider long-lived security j. fact that the consumption commodity must B exist t e and (0,1] e Tt II: Proof At time is for Proposition 3.2. zero, (3.2) certainly true, since t(0) is taken to be the numeraire. Thus with P{B) > such that (3.2) if (3.2) is violated for is = 1 by the not true, there t on B. (This follows from the fact that both sides of the equality of (3.2) are right continuous.) Without loss of generality, we assume that on B: E (// x{s)dD,{s) I 7,) x{t) We As define defined, 6 is Okioj, s) - Ojiuj^s) v{uj,s) yuen,k = + = -1bx(,,i](w,s) = 1bx[mi(w,s) {Sj{u,t) - Dj{uj,s) + bounded and predictable, the continuous; and v is - l,i i,2,... ,j latter of 1, . . . , J, Dj{ijj)). which follows from the fact that 6 is left an integrable variation process. We claim that 6 n \ B and for s e [0, finances t] on B v. is The fact that {d,v) satisfy (2.3) obvious. ^(0)^5(0)+ On J5 for s r0iuydS{u)+ e [t, 1], r we have e{u)^dD{u)-v{s-) - S,{s) + Dj{t) - D,{s-) - vis-) =5,(0 - Sj{s) + Dj{t) - Djis-) - = -Sj{s) = (2.4) for s Jo •Jo =Sj{t) and ej{s)Sj{s) = Sj{t) 6[s)'^S{s). 21 + Dj{s~) - D,[t) e [0,1] and on It is also clear that 0{l)'^ AD{1) V at time zero is zero. — Thus At;(l). v is financed by 6 and v is marketed. The price of But we note the following iiv) =E i =E (x{t)Sj{t) > E [ x{s)dv{s) ) - f x{s)dDj(s)j 'x{t)E[j^x{s)dD,{s)\Tt) ^ - ^—^^ I /•! xis)dDAs) J^ a contradiction. Appendix Proof. Let 9 is clear that G G[/?, 5] finances v III: Proof for Proposition 4.2. We want to show that v is a.s.. We are left to verify that EiV. 6{iy AD{1) = Av{l) financed by 9 given (/9*,5*). It 9{t)^S*{t)^9{0)"^S*{0)+ f 9{s)^dS*{s) Jo + [ l3*{s)9{sfdD{s)- Now I I3*{s)dv{s) Vf G (A.l) a.s. [0, 1] Jo Jo define = e{tfAD{t) - G{t) Av{t) and = G*{t) The process 9{tyS{t) is ^*{t)G{t). + G{t)^9{0)^SiO)+ f e{sfdS{s)+ [ e{sfdD{s)-v{t) Jo Jo a semimartingale, since the IV. 20 of Meyer first integral on the right-hand-side is a semimartingale (1976)), and the second and the third terms are processes of Here we remark that {^(<)^S(/)} may not be a semimartingale since then it is V<e[0,l] not right continuous, which differentiation rule for semimartingales is if D or v Corollary IV. 23 of Meyer (1976)) 22 (cf. bounded is a defining property of a semimartingale. (cf. a.s. (A.2) Theorem variation. not continuous, Now we have using the d{e{t)^s*{t) = where /3*{t-)d (e{tfs{t) + G*{t)) = + G(o) + d (r (0 {e{t-)^s{t-) denotes the joint variation process [•,] {e{tfs(t) (cf. + G{t))) + G{t-)^ d/3*(t) + d[/3\e^s + g],, (a.3) Jacod (1979, 2.31)). The second term on the right-hand-side of (A.3) can be rewritten as: (^e{t-fs{t-) where the first + G{t-)^di3*{t) = (^e(t)^s(t) = d{t)^S{t-)d/3*{t), + G{t) - e(t)'^AS{t) - e(t)^AD{t) + Ai>(o)d/?*(0 (AA) equality follows from (A. 2) and the second equality follows from the definition of G{t). We can rewrite the third term on the right-hand-side of (A.3) d[l3\d^S + G], = e{t)^d[/3\S]t + as: e{t)^d[p\D], - d[(3\v]t by Theorem IV. 18 of Meyer (1976). Applying the differentiation rule for (A.5) semimartingales again we get: dS*{t) Finally, we = d{/3*{t)S(i)) = /3*{t-)dS(f) + S{t-)dl3*{t) + (A.6) d[l3\S],. substitute (A.4) and (A.5) into (A.3) and use (A. 6) to get: d (e{tfs*{t) where we have used the + G*(o) = e{t)^ds*{t) + 0*{t)e[tYdD(t) - i3*{t)dv{t), (aj) fact that /3*{t-)dD{t) + d[l3\D],= (3*{t)dD{t) and I3*{t-)dvit) cf. + d[l3\v]t Corollary IV. 23 of Meyer (1976). Equation (A.7) finances i; given (0*,S*). This naturally implies that ^ are similar. 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