United States General Accounting Office
Washington, DC 20548
B-286562
March 16, 2001
The Honorable Curt Weldon
Chairman, Subcommittee on Readiness
Committee on Armed Services
House of Representatives
Subject: Military Readiness: Updated Readiness Status of U. S. Air Transport
Capability
Dear Mr. Chairman:
This letter conveys updated information on the readiness status of U.S. airlift and
aerial refueling aircraft similar to that provided in our June 2000 report entitled
Military Readiness: Air Transport Capability Falls Short of Requirements. Your office
asked us to provide this data because of your ongoing concern that U.S. mobility
capabilities may be inadequate to quickly transport the military forces and supplies
necessary to execute the National Military Strategy of fighting and winning two
nearly simultaneous major theater wars. Specifically, we are providing the following:
charts showing fiscal years 1997-2000 mission capable data for C-5s, C-141s, C17s, KC-10s and KC-135s compared to the U.S. Air Force Air Mobility
Command’s standards,
tables showing the fiscal year 2000 average mission capable rates, the resulting
shortfalls in airlift and aerial refueling capability at the onset of war based on
the aircraft performing at these rates, and Office of the Secretary of Defense
information relating to wartime surge capability, and
charts showing the C-5, KC-10 and KC-135 not mission capable for supply and
cannibalization rates for fiscal years 1997-2000.
GAO-01-495R Military Readiness
We briefed your office on this data on January 25, 2001. As we agreed at that time,
GAO will continue to evaluate the Mobility Requirements Study 2005. If you have
questions, please contact me on (757) 552-8111 or my Assistant Director, Mr. William
Meredith, on (202) 512-4275.
Sincerely yours,
Neal P. Curtin
Director, Defense Capabilities and Management
Enclosure
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GAO-01-495R Military Readiness
Enclosure
Updated Readiness Status of U. S. Air Transport
Capability
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GAO-01-495R Military Readiness
Enclosure
Three Measures of Air Transport Capability
• Number of aircraft required for wartime - the number of aircraft which are
required to meet wartime missions.
• Number of aircraft mission capable in peacetime - the number of mission
authorized aircraft that were fully or partially mission capable based on monthly
fleet-wide Air Mobility Command Health of Force data.
• Projected military wartime surge capability - the million-ton miles per day
(MTM/D) DOD estimates it has to meet military wartime objectives in the first 45
days of the most demanding wartime operations. Wartime surge is predicated
on:
• full activation of the Air Reserve Component crews and maintenance,
• temporary deferral of scheduled maintenance activity,
• accelerating the return of aircraft in depot status to operational status,
• using unit training aircraft for operational missions, and
• only grounding aircraft that are not-mission capable for items on the
minimum equipment list.
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GAO-01-495R Military Readiness
Enclosure
C-5 Aircraft Required and Peacetime Mission
Capable, Fiscal Years 1997-2000
90
Number of Aircraft
80
70
Shortfall
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Oct 96
D ec
F eb
Apr
Ju n
Aug
Oct -
D ec
F eb
Apr
Ju n
Aug
97
E quivalent Air cr aft M ission Capable
Oct 98
D ec
F eb
Apr
Ju n
Aug
Oct -
D ec
F eb
Apr
Ju n
99
C-5 Air cr aft Requir ed
Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
Page 5
GAO-01-495R Military Readiness
Aug
Enclosure
C-135 Aircraft Required and Peacetime
Mission Capable, Fiscal Years 1997-2000
Number of Aircraft
400
350
Shortfall
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Oc t 96
D ec
F eb
Apr
Ju n
Aug
Oc t -
D ec
F eb
Apr
Ju n
Aug
97
E quivalent Air cr aft M ission Capable
Oct98
D ec
F eb
Apr
Ju n
Aug
Oct-
D ec
F eb
Apr
Jun
99
KC-135 Air cr aft Requir ed
Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
Page 6
GAO-01-495R Military Readiness
Aug
Enclosure
KC-10 Aircraft Required and Peacetime
Mission Capable, Fiscal Years 1997-2000
50
Number of Aircraft
Shortfall
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Oct96
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct-
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
97
Equivalent Aircraft Mission Capable
Oct98
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct-
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
99
KC-10 Aircraft Required
Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
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GAO-01-495R Military Readiness
Aug
Enclosure
C-17 Aircraft Required and Peacetime
Mission Capable, Fiscal Years 1997-2000
60
Number of Aircraft
50
40
Shortfall
30
20
10
0
O ct96
D ec
F eb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct-
D ec
F eb
Apr
Ju n
Aug
97
E q u iv a le n t A ir c r a f t M is s io n C a p a b le
O ct98
D ec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
O c t-
D ec
F eb
Apr
99
C - 1 7 A ir c r a f t R e q u ir e d
Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
Page 8
GAO-01-495R Military Readiness
Ju n
Aug
Enclosure
C-141 Aircraft Required and Peacetime Mission
Capable, Fiscal Years 1997-2000
160
Number of Aircraft
140
120
Shortfall
100
80
60
40
20
0
Oct96
D ec
F eb
Apr
Ju n
Aug
Oc t-
D ec
F eb
Apr
Ju n
Aug
97
E quivalent Air cr aft M ission Capable
Oct98
D ec
F eb
Apr
Ju n
Aug
O ct-
D ec
F eb
Apr
Ju n
99
C-141 Air cr aft Requir ed
Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
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GAO-01-495R Military Readiness
Aug
Enclosure
Air Mobility Command Airlift and Aerial
Refueling Aircraft Mission Capable Rates
Aircraft type
C-5
C-17
C-141
KC-135
KC-10
Mission capable rates (percent)
a
Air Mobility Command
FY 1997- 99 Average
standard wartime rates
peacetime rates
75
55
87.5
66
80
61
85
67b
85
88
FY 2000 Average
peacetime rates
53
63
68
49b
83
a
a
Average mission capable rates for the C-5, KC-135, and KC-10 were based on rates for fiscal years 1997 – 99. Average mission capable
rates for the C-141 and C-17 were based on fourth quarter fiscal year 1999 data because these aircraft are in transition. These rates were
computed by dividing the number of aircraft mission capable by the total number of primary mission aircraft.
b
Rate is for the 442 KC-135s assigned to the Air Mobility Command.
Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
Page 10
GAO-01-495R Military Readiness
Enclosure
Airlift and Aerial Refueling Shortfall Based on Mission Capable
Rates Projected for Wartime and 1995 Requirements
Projected military
wartime surge
b
capability
9.47 MTM/D
3.01 MTM/D
6.96 MTM/D
4.01 MTM/D
20.98 MTM/D
1995 Military
wartime
requirement
12.98 MTM/D
3.08 MTM/D
7.07 MTM/D
4.36 MTM/D
1.71 MTM/D
29.20 MTM/Dd
KC-135
KC-10
Total refueling aircraft
232 aircraft
40 aircraft
272 aircraft
402 aircraft
41 aircraft
443 aircraft
232 aircraft
e
40 aircraft
e
272 aircraft
170 aircraft
1 aircraft
171 aircraft
38.37
0.23
38.60
KC-135
KC-10
Total refueling capacity
43.1 MPF/D
30.5 MPF/D
73.7 MPF/Dd
74.8 MPF/D
31.3 MPF/D
106.1 MPF/D
43.1 MPF/D
e
30.5 MPF/D
73.7 MPF/Dd,e
e
31.7 MPF/D
0.7 MPF/D
32.4 MPF/D
29.88
0.69
30.57
Mission
C-5
KC-10
C-17
C-141
c
Programmed Shortfall
Total military airlift
Current
peacetime
a
capability
9.17 MTM/D
3.01 MTM/D
5.09 MTM/D
3.71 MTM/D
23.44 MTM/Dd
e
Military wartime
capability
shortfall
3.51 MTM/D
0.07 MTM/D
0.11 MTM/D
0.35 MTM/D
1.71 MTM/D
5.76 MTM/Dd
Percentage
military wartime
shortfall
12.02
0.20
0.40
1.20
5.86
19.73d
a
Based on fiscal year 2000 average mission capable rates.
Estimates provided by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Program Analysis and Evaluation based on February 8, 2001 mission capable rates
projected for wartime.
c
The amount expected to be short during the transition between C-141 and C-17 aircraft.
d
Totals may not add due to rounding.
e
OSD did not provide projected wartime capability estimates for refueling aircraft.
b
Million-ton miles per day (MTM/D)
Million pounds of fuel per day (MPF/D)
Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
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GAO-01-495R Military Readiness
Enclosure
Airlift Shortfall Based on Projected Wartime Surge Capability
Compared to 1995 and 2005 Mobility Requirements
1995 Airlift
2005 Airlift
a
Total wartime requirement
b
49.7 MTM/D
51.1–54.5 MTM/D
Military wartime requirement
29.2 MTM/D
30.6–34.0 MTM/D
Projected military wartime surge
capability
23.44 MTM/D 23.44 MTM/D
Military wartime capability shortfall
5.76 MTM/D
c
Percentage military wartime shortfall 19.73
7.16–10.56 MTM/D
23.40–31.06
a
The 1995 Mobility Requirements Study Bottom Up Review Update cites this airlift requirement.
Mobility Requirements Study 2005 identifies this range of airlift requirements depending on the scenario.
c
Both studies cite that 20.5 MTM/D will be provided by the civilian fleet. The remaining portion of the requirement is expected to be provided by the military.
b
Source: Wartime surge data provided by the Office of the Secretary of Defense. GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command Data.
Page 12
GAO-01-495R Military Readiness
Enclosure
Two Indicators of Parts Availability
• Not Mission Capable Supply Rate (NMCS) - the percent
of possessed hours that aircraft were not mission capable
for supply based on monthly fleet-wide Air Mobility
Command Health of Force data.
• Cannibalization Rate - the average number of serviceable
parts removals per 100 sorties based on monthly fleet-wide
Air Mobility Command Health of Force data.
Page 13
GAO-01-495R Military Readiness
Enclosure
C-5 NMCS Rate Compared to the Air Mobility
Command Standard for Fiscal Years 1997-2000
30
Rate in Percent
25
20
15
Excessive NMCS Rate
10
5
Acceptable NMCS Rate
0
Oct-
D ec
F eb
Apr
Ju n
Aug
96
Oct-
D ec
F eb
Apr
97
C -5 N M C S R ate
Ju n
Aug
Oct98
D ec
F eb
Apr
Ju n
Aug
Oct-
D ec
F eb
Apr
Ju n
99
C -5 Stan d ard N M C S R ate
Not Mission Capable for Supply (NMCS)
Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
Page 14
GAO-01-495R Military Readiness
Aug
Enclosure
C-5 Cannibalizations Per 100 Sorties Compared to the
Air Mobility Command Standard for Fiscal Years 1997- 2000
80
Cannibalizations Per 100 Sorties
70
60
50
40
Excess Cannibalization
30
20
10
Acceptable Cannibalization
0
Oct-
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
96
Aug
Oct-
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
97
C-5 Cannibalization Rate
Oct98
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct-
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
99
C-5 Standard Cannibalization Rate
Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
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GAO-01-495R Military Readiness
Aug
Enclosure
KC-135 NMCS Rate Compared to the Air Mobility
Command Standard for Fiscal Years 1997-2000
40
Rate in Percent
35
30
25
20
Excessive NMCS Rate
15
10
Acceptable NMCS Rate
5
0
O ct-
D ec
F eb
Apr
Ju n
96
Aug
Oct-
D ec
F eb
Apr
97
KC-135 NM CS Rate
Ju n
Aug
Oct98
D ec
F eb
Apr
Ju n
Aug
Oct-
D ec
F eb
Apr
99
KC-135 S tandar d NM CS Rate
Not Mission Capable for Supply (NMCS)
Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
Page 16
GAO-01-495R Military Readiness
Ju n
Aug
Enclosure
KC-135 Cannibalizations Per 100 Sorties Compared to the
Air Mobility Command Standard for Fiscal Years 1997-2000
30
Cannibalizations Per 100 Sorties
25
20
Excess Cannibalization
15
10
5
Acceptable cannibalization
0
Oct-
D ec
Feb
Apr
Jun
96
K C-135 C an n ib aliz atio n Rate
Aug
Oct-
D ec
F eb
Apr
97
Ju n
Aug
Oct98
D ec
Feb
Apr
Ju n
Aug
Oct-
Dec
F eb
Apr
99
KC -135 S tan d ar d Can n ib aliz atio n R ate
Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
Page 17
GAO-01-495R Military Readiness
Jun
Aug
Enclosure
KC-10 NMCS Rate Compared to the Air Mobility
Command Standard for Fiscal Years 1997-2000
10
Rate in Percent
9
8
7
Excessive NMCS Rate
6
5
4
3
2
Acceptable NMCS Rate
1
0
Oct-
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
96
Aug Oct-
Dec
Feb
Apr
97
KC-10 NMCS Rate
Jun
Aug
Oct98
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct-
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
99
KC-10 Standard NMCS Rate
Not Mission Capable for Supply (NMCS)
Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
Page 18
GAO-01-495R Military Readiness
Aug
Enclosure
KC-10 Cannibalizations Per 100 Sorties Compared to the
Air Mobility Command Standard for Fiscal Years 1997-2000
7
Cannibalizations Per 100 Sorties
Excess Cannibalization
6
5
4
3
2
Acceptable Cannibalization
1
0
Oct-
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
96
Oct-
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct-
97
KC-10 Cannibalization Rate
98
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct-
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
99
KC-10 Standard Cannibalization Rate
Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
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GAO-01-495R Military Readiness
Aug