Outlook and Prospects from the
Far Side of the Globe
5 September 2011
Bord Bia Meat Seminar 2014
Dublin, Ireland
P11026
10 January 2014

I’m going to talk about...
1. Beef + Lamb New Zealand
2. New Zealand Production
3. Outlook for NZ for 2013/14
4. NZ in the Global Marketplace

Beef + Lamb New Zealand
• Industry-good organisation, farmer-owned
• Funded by producer levies
• NZ $22m in 2012, plus $8m of other income
• Requires a referendum, last in September 2009, next in 2015

B+LNZ Programmes

I’m going to talk about...
1. Beef + Lamb New Zealand
2. New Zealand Production
3. Outlook for NZ for 2013/14
4. NZ in the Global Marketplace

New Zealand Meat Exports
• Over 90% of sheepmeat produced is exported
• Over 80% of beef produced is exported
• New Zealand exports meat and co-products to ~120 countries
• With no government support, competitive terms of access are crucial

Market Access

Sheep and Cattle Numbers
Breeding Ewes
Hoggets
Total Sheep
30 June 2012p
(million)
30 June 2013e
(million)
20.41
20.21
9.87
31.26
9.74
30.94
2012 to 2013
% change
-1.0%
-1.3%
-1.0%
Beef Cattle
Dairy Cattle
3.73
6.45
Source: B+LNZ Economic Service, Statistics New Zealand
3.69
6.44
-1.3%
-0.1%

NZ Sheep and Cattle Numbers
1990-91 to 2013-14
Dairy Cattle
Beef Cattle
Sheep

Focus on Productivity
7% less lamb from
46% fewer sheep.

Farm Gate Lamb Returns

New Zealand Cattle Prices
September Year, NZD per headAs opp
Beef All Grades $ per head
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
$970.89
Beef Market Change and Exchange Rate Effect
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
Source: Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service
$998.00
+$27.11
+$274.58
Market Change $
Exchange Rate $
-$247.47

Focus on Profitability

I’m going to talk about...
1. Beef + Lamb New Zealand
2. New Zealand Production
3. Outlook for NZ for 2013/14
4. NZ in the Global Marketplace

NZ Export Lamb Production
• 2012/13 Season
• Spring lamb crop up 2.1% to 26.8 million lambs
• Third lowest on record, but on the way up
• ~20 million export lambs
• One of best lambing % ever at 123.6% (ewes to tailed lambs)
Then drought...

Drought - The Big Story of 2013
Average
2012
2013

Impact on Lamb Production
• Pressure on feed supplies (i.e., no grass)
• Earlier and deeper lamb slaughter in 12/13
• Market and price tension as it coincided with difficult EU conditions
• Fewer ewes put to the ram
• Ewes put to the ram were light

NZ Export Lamb Production

Impact on Beef Production
• Pressure on feed supplies (i.e., no grass)
• Higher slaughter of beef cattle
• Cows carried over from the good dairying conditions of 11/12 also culled
• So higher production in 12/13, but not for good reasons
• Full impact will take longer to appreciate than with sheep production

NZ Export Beef Production

I’m going to talk about...
1. Beef + Lamb New Zealand
2. New Zealand Production
3. Outlook for NZ for 2013/14
4. NZ in the Global Marketplace

World Lamb Exports
Chilled and Frozen – 2012

Lamb Export Destinations
Source: Meat Industry Association of New Zealand

China Lamb Imports Chilled + Frozen
Tonnes March Year

Export Lamb Receipts

Export Lamb Receipts II

World Beef Exports
Chilled and Frozen – 2012

Beef Export Destinations

China Beef Imports Chilled + Frozen
Tonnes March Year
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
47%
24%
Australia
33%
Uruguay
2011
Source: Global Trade Atlas
2012
14%
33% 7% 6%
9%
New Zealand
2013
Brazil Canada
$ per tonne March 2013
Australia NZD 5,563 per tonne
Uruguay
NZ
NZD 4,335 per tonne
NZD 4,603 per tonne
Brazil
Canada
NZD 5,329 per tonne
NZD 4,186 per tonne

Export Beef & Veal Receipts
Top 15 Countries, March Year

NZ Meat Receipts from China

Chinese Consumption Growth
• Demography
• Restaurant growth
Hot pot
Fast food
Slowly towards table cuts
• Ethnic demand
~2% of population are Muslim
Sheepmeat tradition in North-West

Lamb and Co-Product Returns

Co-Product Returns
Source: Meat Industry Association of New Zealand

Co-Product Returns II
• This equates to:
- NZD 539m for hide and skin exports
- NZD 181m for edible offal exports
- NZD 168m for meat and bone meal exports
- NZD 160m in tallow exports
• So it’s not all about the meat...

Thanks for listening